Danny Hillis: Back to the future (of 1994)

www.ted.com From deep in the TED archive, Danny Hillis outlines an intriguing theory of how and why technological change seems to be accelerating, by linking it to the very evolution of life itself. The presentation techniques he uses may look dated, but the ideas are as relevant as ever.
TEDTalks is a daily video podcast of the best talks and performances from the TED Conference, where the world's leading thinkers and doers give the talk of their lives in 18 minutes. Featured speakers have included Al Gore on climate change, Philippe Starck on design, Jill Bolte Taylor on observing her own stroke, Nicholas Negroponte on One Laptop per Child, Jane Goodall on chimpanzees, Bill Gates on malaria and mosquitoes, Pattie Maes on the "Sixth Sense" wearable tech, and "Lost" producer JJ Abrams on the allure of mystery. TED stands for Technology, Entertainment, Design, and TEDTalks cover these topics as well as science, business, development and the arts. Closed captions and translated subtitles in a variety of languages are now available on TED.com, at www.ted.com/translate
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[@Mornys]

One of my favorite talks. So insightful, so contemporary. And it's done 20 years ago!

[@Deetwo7]

Possibly the best TED I have seen so far. Extremely fascinating, especially in light of everything that has changed in the past 18 years after this was recorded.

[@quantumdance662]

this guy has a perfect grasp on concepts and how things work. He is not obstructed by any form of dogma or mainstream illusion that we are all presented. He's all about "stepping back" and seeing the "wider picture" that is smudged for us common folk. The fact that he gave this talk 20ish years ago doesn't change that fact. He just shows what human mind is capable of imagining and creating and how things Exponentially evolve into more advanced and complex forms which allow us to grasp reality.

[@delatroy]

Fascinating talk. I agree with him. Smith was right when he said it was inevitable. What we are creating is completely out of our control. The consequences of our actions are completely unknown.

[@ravon1982]

man 11yrs later and its snowballing

[@MrC0MPUT3R]

Wow, I came into this expecting to hear something akin to bad predictions of the future but what I found was something that is still very relevant today. TED, you do amaze me at times.

[@TheMarkoanton]

One of the greatest ted talks i've ever watched.

[@DrR1pper]

One of my favorite ted talks.

[@39.Brizio]

´´the phase´´ as you refer to it , to me seems to be one that doesn't end and we don't quite know how or why it began and its not quite an idea we can yet grasp with current paradigms .... its as life, energy , thought.

[@LPhase9]

Great talk, I was born a year before this one, and I think we really are headed for something, but who knows when we will actually get there.

[@gulllars]

@BaileysBeads if you watch the intro, at 00:30 it actually says "Feb 1994 Monterey California"

[@yousufj56]

Usually when people resort to childish name calling or put downs during a debate, it shows that they themselves feel vulnerable in the debate and feel as though they are at the brink of either losing the debate or they are in denial about the oppositions argument which they truly do feel makes sense.

[@erictam3349]

always my favorite talks

[@elchafa337]

Wow, very amazing talk!

[@x1plus1x]

Hey Danny! This video is nearly 25 years old. I would love to see your perspective on the last quarter century. It feels like not a ton has changed. We now have cell phones, but is that the awesome, amazing, futuristic, unimaginable, technology that we were waiting for? It seems anti-climatic.

[@briankilbane7043]

You are the inconceivable future that people talked about in the distant past.

[@SuperHoldenC]

wonderful video!

[@LonghornShootingSports]

@bandeenje It was an afterthought. Though I recognize stupidity, I'm not using this as a crutch to posit myself above anyone. This just means we must work towards opening up progress. Of course, the definition of progress varies (as you mentioned) from person to person. (No doubt I cannot escape the accusation of "Us vs. Them"). If a person cannot understand the import of efficient communication/doesn't care to try, the short answer to it is that they devalue much more than communication.

[@nemohi7607]

is there any methodology or framework outside for starting what is here talk about "evolving code"?

[@zdaviation]

What's that white board that he used on which to draw a graph? I'd like to get me one of those when the tech is available to the consumer.

[@iasonasa]

17 years and they still teaching us !

[@muzzafuzza]

TED is amazing.

[@BSEmadcow]

Great talk

[@ethanmiller663]

It's astonishing influence shelf What's your opinion about this !!

[@petrol11]

@kurtilein3 regarding your claims about powerpoint and HD - you are incorrect on both counts. Powerpoint was already on it's 4th major release by 94, and HD is simply a statement of resolution in comparison to old TVs. Computers have been capable of HD for a very long time.

[@tommmmmm]

Really nice one

[@Tai-Xian]

@Neylonx in some cases, and in certain communities incorrect spelling can be more efficient, especailly when talking about simple consepts

[@GeekProdigyGuy]

Though it seems like he was wrong, after 20 yrs, we have come a LONG way. We now have high quality 3D video streamed to handheld phones, which we can talk to as if they were assistants, and can grab information from social networks and a world wide database. The growth he saw 20 yrs ago hasn't shown any signs of slowing down. Maybe his time scale was off, but his predictions weren't. We're seeing something new unfolding, just not quite at that new phase itself yet.

[@eatingtacos000]

great vid thanks

[@TheAmi999]

I watched it first time today. It's 2022. Very, very interesting. I wonder what this man thinks about our technology right now and the future. Everything changes so fast. my personal existence is so meaningless in this process of evolution, I got depressed. We all are going to die soon and I'm curious what will happen later. It's sad we won't see it. I've just realized how short is human's life and our evolutional purpose of living. Which is also kind of sad. Just to evolve more and more? Wow, i think I should stop worrying or worrying less, because most of my problems are truly meaningless after watching this.

[@263javier]

Gosh I've wating for this video since I was 1

[@PeterDrewSEO]

The future is coming forward at a pace of one year each year! Amazing.

[@nextbay]

@gamegloss A "creator" is possible miss construed for a catalysis, all development requires a starting point, an idea, a spark. this is a combination factors that arrive at a point were something new occurs.

[@Trazynn]

I like how they used equipment from 1994 to record this TEDtalk.

[@ptanham]

Obviously hadn't read the selfish gene! ....But still an awesome talk. "Auto Catalytic" is my new favourite phrase.

[@JUGAopet1]

so fookin' TRUE, bravo

[@quantumdance662]

@LightWthoutTheStatic aah yes, i think i should have used quotation marks on word Perfect. Theres no such thing as Perfect, its all subjective. I see what you mean, and yes, i agree. We all look at thing thought our cultural, emotional, logical, self awareness etc. "lenses". But what i wanted to say is: this guy manages to perceive things with high ability to step back and see a bigger picture, how things fall in place and how they are caused by things which are uncommon

[@FerdowsAther]

Its been 18 years and TED still uses a max 480p camera.

[@PyrrhosOfEpeiros]

@BaileysBeads This was recorder in 1994

[@WhichDoctor1]

@GeekProdigyGuy Actually the pace of growth in the power of microchips is slowing down. We are starting to bump up against the limits of how small we can make transistors.

[@pastypuertorican]

I found this a few years ago, and had a mental breakdown after I saw it.. or maybe it was something similar... I can't recall at this point

[@bamboopoem1989]

wouldn't it be a greater world if every electrical engineer has a mind like this! sometimes some converging thoughts can just bring things to another stage. let's hope

[@AtheerAl]

amazing..

[@peterromersa4033]

Was TED around in 1994?

[@kurtilein3]

Well, the speaker is right, something will come after us. By now, we are only years away from creating an artificial mind running on a supercomputer that is intelligent, self-aware, and can communicate. And we can say with confidence that this will happen, sooner or later. The necessary processing power is available right now, and working theories of the mind are being developed and are getting better and better.

[@LonghornShootingSports]

@Pirate44444 I know it sounds that way, and it's hard to understand, by just reading words :) The fact is we want everything to be hunky dory and "feel good", and everyone to get along. This doesn't happen. But I hear what you're saying.

[@occupyknowledge]

This man unknowingly explained us in 94 how important it is that we do not allow the internet to be regulated!

[@DaTux91]

Oh great, KZbin changed their videoplayer so you have to click MORE to change resolution or turn annotations on/off... Why? It was just fine the way it was.

[@Gnug215]

@houseguy4 Since you're asking "Who made chemistry?", you mean to say that there's a person behind all this? So we have all these natural processes that are hard enough to explain in themselves, but then you propose to make the picture a whole lot more complicated by adding a person into the picture? What does that even explain? And how do you even begin to explain that person?

[@P00P0STER0US]

It's interesting to compare individuals with cells. One comment I haven't seen is any intimation that groups of people function as organs, and these organs make up a large entity. The evolution of these organs and their interrelation evolves the entity. And this process continues until eventually something amazing happens and through technology the Earth becomes a single conscious entity. A fun thought for a quiet Saturday.

[@nubnuber]

@BaileysBeads This was recorded IN 1994

[@GeekProdigyGuy]

@AlgeKalipso The point of the Singularity is that you can't predict what it will cause, isn't it? It doesn't matter if you expected it, it'll still take you by surprise.

[@AstroDanish]

@BaileysBeads maybe it's cuz this video is from february 1994 (just a thought)

[@kevinscales]

@videochemist Self-awareness will make this particular transition very different, but a transition will still happen at some point.

[@simonbour]

nice vid

[@ShakuShingan]

@BaileysBeads This really is from 1994.

[@delatroy]

@aetrion it's not clear how uploading yourself would work. How can you transfer conscious ? Outer body experience..? We have no idea what it even is. Whatever you upload might be a sterile duplicate that has data but no mind ( whatever that is).

[@Toleich]

Woa. Awesome.

[@kurtilein3]

@woo2fly21 powerpoint wasnt invented when this was recorded.

[@nextbay]

@milutinkristofic Technology loss has occurred in many civilisations were information can not be past on due to population isolation or environmental change. these factors will also have a similar effect

[@JesusChristsDick]

@P00P0STER0US These ideas are being incorporated in Living System Analysis and is being used to understand and combat terrorist organizations. My favorite detail in this type of analysis is that terrorist recruiters are related to reproductive organs, and analysts refer to combating them as castration.

[@FreudsCigar]

@houseguy4 You do realize that he was simplifying a complex process for a general audience? Who made the oil you ask? Chemistry.

[@MrDuckieone]

@awhitesoul2012 Can I ask why?

[@najtrows]

@BaileysBeads haha, you trollin'? it clearly says that this was recorded in 1994, if you google hillis now you'll find that he is older

[@AZipp161]

Did Ted run out of videos?

[@Espumona]

a real visionary.

[@CreativeFreedoms]

I would say the biggest obstacle for this process right now is organized religion, because it forbids people from acknowledging certain types of information and keeps them in ignorance. Religions tend to think they have all the answers and fend off new ideas. Ideologies in general can have the same mindnumbing effect.

[@ChrisWMF]

so... we will make machines that will evolve into the future of life as we know it on earth? i hope there is room for us in this future.

[@ehhhhhhhhhh]

The person who was 'complaining' about the bad quality was joking, the sarcasm was pretty apparent. Don't jump to anger so quickly over a joke.

[@2XocraM]

@houseguy4 You should check the scientific definition of theory.

[@Katalyzt]

Interesting...

[@wodahsking]

OKAY....So by the process he just described, it is almost certain that skynet will be created. Damn!

[@quantumdance662]

@LightWthoutTheStatic to, i would say, at least 90% of humans on this planet. And what brings more humility then stepping ouside of your own ego and seeing that youre only a step in evolution, not an end cause, and not a ultimate product with highest capabilities and highest reason. He manages to do so even while looking through his "lenses" which mostly restrict him but also empower him to be able to think that way.

[@albedoshader]

The presentation technique is dated, yeah. Only in respect of needing the audience being focused. No shiny multicolor slides or videos to distract anyone, just a guy talking-that’s really dated ;) I like it.

[@bary1234]

@bootr0s I wonder what you might be talking about, and did you actually want to talk to me?

[@DaTux91]

Okay, but how do you explain the fossils of early humans, like homo erectus & homo neanderthalensis then? I don't want to deprive anyone of their support system (although I do think religion is not the only possible support system), but don't you think it's a bit illogical to subscribe only to part of a theory and not to parts that you don't like or that are inconvenient? E.g. I don't subscribe to the idea of an afterlife, while obviously it would be more convenient to do so. Isn't this similar?

[@Tai-Xian]

@Neylonx note, my own, and your ability to read it

[@Matat]

@yadsik *flicks yadsik's sarcasm detector on, then walks away.*

[@startreking]

@AwesomeTyme BALLS!

[@GeekProdigyGuy]

@WhichDoctor1 Yet we continue to see GPUs advancing just as quickly, and ARM chips making leaps from single core 1 GHz to quad core 2GHz. Multicore chips are beginning to really dominate in x86, and smaller transistors are already on the roadmap (32nm being the current). Research papers are abundant on the issue of true nanoscale computing, and fields like quantum computing are growing as well. There is no evidence of a short term limit yet.

[@DaTux91]

Question: how do you agree with creationism and study biology at the same time? I honestly don't see that working out. Of course there have been flaws in previous 'versions' of string theory, as has been the case with every theory. Just look at the theory of gravitation and how it's evolved. But the way string theory is understood presently, it does allow for the things I said. I cannot state facts as anything other than facts and it is a fact that present-day string theory allows for them.

[@RIMJANESSOHMALOOG]

He now probably looks like Doc from Back to the Future :D

[@MilutinKristofic]

3:22 How can power of processors decreased? WTF? Will we go back to stone tools?

[@DrR1pper]

@kurtilein3 Nicely put

[@FoxvoxDK]

Knowledge-gasm!

[@AlgeKalipso]

So when it happens please don't come to me and say "We didn't know about the Singularity, it took us by surprise"

[@LightWthoutTheStatic]

@WokenOne No one has a perfect grasp on how things work. We all have lenses through which we view life and no one can see even their own self perfectly clearly. Humility takes you forward and assumptions of self aptitude take you backward.

[@hal970fx]

Connection Machine is sexiest machine.

[@guilhermesilveira5254]

Ele projetou o supercomputador de processamento paralelo CM-5 em 1993. Contudo, o economista Robert Gordon tem razão ao defender que as verdadeiras inovações já ocorreram, tais como saneamento, eletricidade, transistores, aeronáutica, represas, etc. As supostas " inovações criativas digitais" da época atual são apenas termos hiperbólicos sem profundidade conceitual.

[@wolfxfox]

Oh my God. It is happening!

[@breaneainn]

My Grandfather had a watch in his pocket and ignored the calendar in the tiny window. I have a mobile in my pocket and treat it like a pocket watch. Both our pants and shoes still have laces and buttons. Reality check.

[@deanway123]

@houseguy4 the questions you are asking have nothing to do with evolution. Questions about the "beginning of life" or in this case, the oil drop which you are referring to, pertain to a field of study called Abiogenisis, not evolution Evolution is the process of natural selection. In fact, when referring to how a system of EVOLUTION managed to create a better program than one that was DESIGNED by an engineer, he also said that he "didn't understand how it worked" does that mean that god did it?

[@YoLninYo]

Still waiting for MLK Jr's speech to be uploaded as a "TED Talk" FFS!

[@MrCrammer]

I thought this was looking back at 1994 from today. Now I don't want to watch. *closes tab*

[@masluxx]

that is so cool, but i fear this is how skynet will be born....

[@GeekProdigyGuy]

@RDJim Wouldn't that still just be laughing at what I said, irregardless of what it said about me? As for assumptions, it could very well be 10 AM for me at the moment. What evening?

[@freesk8]

I know it's crazy, but I just get more and more afraid of the Terminator apocalypse. I'm no Luddite, but are we creating the ancestors of the robots that will kill or supplant us?

[@DoberFrann]

...in way we don't quite understand...

[@Robinsonero]

The singularity is near.

[@DSBrekus]

Sounds a lot like the stuff ray kurzweil talks about

[@bamboopoem1989]

@P00P0STER0US I think that's exactly what he's trying to convey here

[@dumpmist]

@SchleyFam1 If the tetrapods had suspected what monsters they'd create by crawling onto land, i.e. dinosaurs and humans, maybe they'd stayed in the water. But how could they have known. And how can we know, other than if whatever comes after us have feelings it might be grateful for what we did, like we are grateful that the tetrapods didn't stay in the water.