Data Dive - Sub 3 Hour Marathon MISTAKES

[@kylecRVP]

Dr. Will O’Connor is absolutely incredible insane how he understands how the body works even in small 2-6 minute increments I have never seen a coach or doctor break down numbers this well before!! 🤯 This is some pretty amazing content!

[@drwilloconnor]

Thanks, Kyle! Appreciate your feedback. Helps me know I'm on the right track.

[@BillBrinkop]

This highlights why it’s so important to not rely on data but rather learn to run by feel and know your own body

[@SixStarShane]

I snuck just under the 3 hour mark in Amsterdam last week for my debut but my god did my boy Steve run a similar marathon to me. Thanks for the data Dr 🙏

[@drwilloconnor]

Congrats. You can retire happy now 🤣. Stoked you were able to hang in there unlike Steve.

[@cristian-adrianfrasineanu9855]

This channel is so underrated, glad I found it.

[@drwilloconnor]

Welcome aboard! More to come in 2024!

[@user-ue2tu3ir9w]

This Video really helped me go back and look at my training peaks data from Dublin last year where I ran 3:00:47 just outside sub 3 at 62 years old .My average heart rate was 170 and maxed out at 185 in the last few k. I didn't take any gels or water through the marathon ,but now realise I should have . They did my blood glucose levels in the medical tent as I felt little light headed and was 1.3. They were amazed I was still running.!! But I felt ok then did a warm down 2 miles jog. I now know from your channel I should be taking on fuel even if I don't feel that I need it.Ive just bought a power pod and lactate meter so going all in for London 2024.Thanks for all the information and good luck with your own future training

[@drwilloconnor]

Wow, no carbs or water. That's impressive. I'm not surprised your [GLU] was 1.3, but I'm amazed you finished the race. I'm working on a video at the moment where I talk about doing double threshold days with my lactate meter. That should be a good one to give you some ideas for London.

[@user-ue2tu3ir9w]

Look forward to seeing that👍Will .

[@MyJoey90]

Our boy was too pumped in the beginning. The adrenaline rush 😂

[@drwilloconnor]

We've all been there!

[@nobby197]

Loving the sign in the background!

[@drwilloconnor]

😉

[@kailebaka]

Great video once again Dr Will. You set Steve a heart rate to stay under for the first hour based on a percentage of LTH. Do you have a rule of thumb for roughly what percentages we should stick to for certain stages of the race? E.g. 90% until 1h in, 95% until half way point etc? Apologies if you have covered this in another video.

[@Strizzle81]

Nice analysis...what was Steve's previous marathon PR? Even if he held back on the hills at the start and runs a 1:32ish 1st half, I still dont think he runs sub 3 on this course that day. I bet he closes in 1:30 for a 3:02. Steve needs another training cycle or a faster course.

[@drwilloconnor]

First marathon for Steve. You're probably right about 3:02. Crazy story I should have added about Steve. His next marathon was 3:00:10. He was easily coming in under 3hrs, but then he got heatstroke and literally crawled to the line!

[@Strizzle81]

@@drwilloconnor Wow...we need video footage

[@drwilloconnor]

I have it on my phone but I promised to never share it. I might ask again 🤣

[@paxundpeace9970]

​@@drwilloconnorThat is an awesome result so close and that despite the massiv heat. Hope he gets another chance maybe in a famous place in Europe guess he is able to do 2:56 in Berlin.

[@jpod]

Wow interesting, have used a Stryd foot pod for years and also use training peaks will take a look at my data but I’m pretty sure I alway drift over threshold HR by the end of a marathon and i usually can’t hold marathon power the entire race suggesting over estimates of marathon time (sprinting background)but excited to review the data

[@drwilloconnor]

Most people will have an HR above threshold at the end of a marathon due to cardiac drift and the O2 slow component. Simply put, your muscles are fatigued, requiring more oxygen (and blood flow) for the same pace/power output.

[@philpetersen4477]

Unlike Steve, I was too conservative in the first half of my last marathon where i was gunning for my first sub 3 at 42yo. Got injured MCL due to footwear medial midsole collapse 6weeks out so had to take 3 weeks off running and dial back race expectations, then I caught covid. I did a negative split by 2 mins but came in at 3:01:02. Fastest k was 3:58 (last K). Fastest 5 km was the last 5km. It did feel great though to finish fast and strong with a 15min PB, and to know Ill have it in the bag next time if I train in a similar vein. Should have just backed myself to do 4min15sec or faster ks the whole way as would likely have been fine. Next time! 😅🙏 Love your content. So good!

[@drwilloconnor]

Ah, so close, Phil. Would you have been fine, though… 🤔. You got the most out of yourself on the day with a massive PR, which is the main goal. When I tried to push through with my time goals despite a stomach bug I did 1:7 first half & 1:22 second half. If I had done 1:19, I reckon I would have been better off. There's not much in it when you're pushing your limits. I think you made the best move. Next time, you'll be 2:55 😀

[@philpetersen4477]

@@drwilloconnor Thanks Dr Will, yeah I was a bit gun shy of blowing up like I did last year running a16minute positive split after a PB HM in the first half. Fun until it wasnt! So I was happy to track along patiently and then go harder later on for a great personal best this time. Your video re 'the science of blowing up' and other videos/podcasts really helped me to understand what I needed to do pacing wise to crack the code, and have a good time being competative for a whole mara without blowing it. Bring on next time! 😁

[@drwilloconnor]

There's always another one 🤣

[@Sam-ss5hd]

I had a shocker of a race pushing for sub 3 last month. Thought my training had set me up well. Felt great 2 weeks out then on race day totally flopped after half way. 1.29 first half then fell off a cliff and finished in 3 hrs 20. Heart rate was way higher than normal - eg higher than steady state. Stomach cramps played a part too but overall a bit demoralizing. PB is 3 hours 13 so I now I can get there one day. Struggle to fit the mileage in with my time schedule so not sure!

[@drwilloconnor]

Mate, we've all been there. If you're struggling with the mileage, try shorter training cycles. Alternating short and long weeks, or running at 80% capacity for two to three weeks and then pushing hard for one week every three weeks.

[@brunorolim1216]

The Steve’s photo its me! Please call me Rolim 😁 no worries I already did less than 3 hours at marathon 💪😎

[@alanshrimpton6787]

Sounds like he did the Auckland marathon. I hope he does better this weekend. How do you account for raised HR because of the race. Mine is always 10 to 15bpm higher in a race? Meanwhile perfect timing. I'm 60 and aiming at Auckland for my 1st sub 3hr marathon. Last year I did a 3h12 at Wellington and 3h08 in Melbourne and this year 5h5m 50k Tarawera. I'm going to be on the edge.

[@drwilloconnor]

He did do Auckland. Does it stay 10 - 15 bpm higher throughout the race or just at the start? If it stays high throughout the race, which has happened to me on several occasions, you want to keep an eye on the rate of increase. Regardless of your HR number, the first half of a marathon should be at a metabolic steady state, so aside from a small HR increase from cardiac drift (approx. 5 bpm), your HR between 20 min and 1:30 Hrs should be stable.

[@alanshrimpton6787]

@@drwilloconnor thanks for replying. my 1st hour average Wellington marathon was 149 (148 is my current LT1 from lab test so was probably less then). My 2nd hour was 150 but my 3rd hour was average 160 which is my current LT2. I'm pretty sure it stays up the entire way. Melbourne was 150, 154, 164 each hour average. As mentioned my LT1 is 148, LT2 155-160 and max is 177bpm. I know when i get to 173 based on training and 10k racing I'm cooked and start to dry retch.

[@bogdanholubas3066]

As a multiple marathon runner he should have been able to control those LTHs in the first half. Nothing is linear in marathon, if he is experienced and didn't made any beginner mistake then maybe something else was going on with his body, not necessary weather conditions, elevation or fueling. Also depends how many marathons were around 3:00 , this is also another factor, if his previous marathon was 3:30 or 3:20 this does not mean that he has such experience to control a 3:00 marathon. In my case after I ran 3 races of 32:30 to 32:50 10Ks, and around 5 races with 33:30 to 33:00 I was able to control that 32:30 pace. I know that 10Ks are different than 42,2Ks, but the principle applies here as well, the pain cave is the same no matter is for 20 mins or 2 hours, extrapolating the effort on marathon.

[@davidrogers7787]

Terrific video Will. Have subbed. I’m in that bracket of people going for a sub-3:00 so am really interested in this stuff. I know you’re super-focused on the data, but re. Steve’s second half, you mentioned other non-physiological factors that could have played a part, but then don’t really address them… Was his nutrition and hydration consistent throughout? Did he suffer any GI problems? You mentioned a little bit about hills but was the second half hillier? And most importantly…how much hotter did it get as the race progressed? Or did he experience rain/wind? This last point has been a massive factor for me in the past, sometimes seeing temp increases of 10-15deg intra-race! It’s a killer!

[@drwilloconnor]

Hey Mate, great questions. You're right about heat being a massive factor in marathon performance. It can be challenging to manage because the day heats up as you do. To answer some of your questions. Steve didn't have any GI, nutritional or heat issues. The last half of the marathon was dead flat. I'd love to go into more detail, but I'm afraid no one would stick around for a 20min analysis video. 🤣

[@paxundpeace9970]

Fatigue is a common issue combined with insufficent fueling in the first half of the marathon which is haunting you later. My common problem when cycling a long distance too without having proper breakfast

[@nicolasdecoster82]

Re-watching this video in preparation for my upcoming second marathon in March. I haven't implemented Power into my training yet, but understand now that I should. I'm running with a Garmin FR 955 and a Garmin HRM Pro chest strap - I believe both provide running power as well. Should I work with these numbers, or is there merit in picking up Stryd? Thanks for the great content, Will. Hope you'll keep it up!

[@fernandolacerda5660]

I have the same question. I am inclined to think they provide reliable data, but I am not sure

[@paxundpeace9970]

It is so common to luck at heart rate but it is a lacking indicator and you can see despite him slowing down in the later stage of the race the heart rate is going up a lot.

[@dimitar297]

The ambient temperature went up by 8 degrees c.

[@drwilloconnor]

I've just recorded a video about HR. Should be up next week.

[@kipponi]

Only 2% can run of all the marathon runners under 3hours. So many can't Most are under 4hours. My friend did 3:02🏃. Tried under.

[@oliverwelz539]

Fully agreed that the excursions towards CP (critical power, which is what I guess you call "threshold power" in your video?) in the first 5k were problematic - for several reasons. However, even the target power of 370 W (corresponding to 92% of CP) seems a bit high for a 3hr marathon, if the CP used is valid. How did you arrive at the 370 W as the target power?

[@drwilloconnor]

My method for establishing threshold power generates a value typically lower than the traditional CP. That's probably why my 92% recommendation is higher than Stryd's CP based one. Another reason why it's higher is because Steve was wearing AlphaFlys which would give readings +10-15W compared to trainers despite lower HR readings. It's an adjustment we figured out in training.

[@sebastianserwin3416]

This is a great analysis. As an endurance cyclist, I am not sure to trust my heart rate during running (it is low). I am trying to learn how to use power in running. In 6 days marathon. I will run based on my experience and feelings. However, after I will have to discuss with you the potential for improvement. Maybe I take the risk for better result based on the knowledge from this video and the previous one.

[@drwilloconnor]

Your first marathon is all about experience. Don't get too carried away with times. As you say, run to feel, keep an eye on your data, and then review afterwards.

[@JackD87]

Does anyone know how to add extra zones to their Garmin? I know how to adjust the five zones that is on there but I don’t know how to set it up with 7 zones. Cheers 💪🏼

[@drwilloconnor]

Unfortunately, you can't. There might be a Connect IQ app that helps, though.

[@MrJohnno89]

Great video

[@drwilloconnor]

Thanks!

[@MrJohnno89]

@drwilloconnor I just completed thr Nike melbourne marathon. I took your advice for the sub 3hr. Split the race into 14km sections. Started conservative. First 14km 4.10-4.20, 2nd 14km 4.00-4.10 And the last 3.50-4.00 Which would have got me my target goal of 2.52. First 2 sections pace and HR were bang on. 32km mark my calf gave in. Pace slipped away and finished for 3.01. Just missing out. I appreciate your help and advice, as it was working great up until then

[@drwilloconnor]

Ah, so close. Sounds like you had the right approach, though. Look forward to hearing about the next one!

[@tombarr2536]

What would be an easy effort in terms of power? Thanks

[@drwilloconnor]

Power is relative to your weight and fitness, so I can't give an exact number.

[@calebvanessen1844]

Awesome video! Making me rethink my race plan for the Auckland Half Mara this weekend. In training runs where I run the first 10km of the course, I notice the hills at the start spike my HR too high when at race pace. So I’m planning a negative split throughout the race to take advantage of the flatter parts of the course after 1/2 way. But I’m torn between keeping my HR down early and not wanting to leave too much catch up work to do in the 2nd half. Does your advice in this video of staying between 88-95% threshold HR for the first 1hr hold true for a half marathon as well? Or can you push the boat out more since it’s a shorter race?

[@drwilloconnor]

Hey Mate, not sure if you noticed but this analysis was Auckland Marathon 22' (when it was in Jan). Keep your HR down until you get out to Smales Farm bus depot. After that, it's pretty much a slight downhill unitl the bridge. Keep yourself in check on the bridge climb and then go all-in on the way down the other side.

[@alanshrimpton6787]

​@@drwilloconnorand don't forget to take the pedal off at Shelly beach. The small hill can kill the calves. Then accelerate after that drink station at Erin Pools because it's down hill and flat after that. I did a 1h27 last year and won the 55-59 year age group at 59 😅

[@drwilloconnor]

#beastmode 🤣

[@cristian-adrianfrasineanu9855]

6:30 - can't we just use GAP to compensate for the elevation and get the adjusted pace?

[@drwilloconnor]

If you can get GAP in real-time. Even then, you'd want to have the latest dual-band GPS to ensure you're getting the most accurate reading.

[@JackD87]

Do you have any advice for runners that literally cannot run in Zone 1? By ‘runners’ I mean me 😅😅 I downloaded your free chart and my zone 1 tops out at 131. As soon as I jog I’m in the 130s.

[@drwilloconnor]

Run-walk. Between 4 - 9 min running, 1 - 2 min walking. If I can clock a 2:37 marathon with this method, it can work for you. Trust me 🤝

[@bogdanholubas3066]

Start with some spinning or bike first, and after into running.

[@JackD87]

@@drwilloconnor I trust you! Ha… I’ll give it a go on my next recovery run. Going to take some self-restraint 😅

[@JackD87]

@@bogdanholubas3066 think my heart rate would blow up even more with a run off!

[@kevwal2000]

So this athlete did exactly what his coach told him except for a 2 min segment where he went slightly above his “speed limit” and is blaming that on him missing his goal by 6+ mins lol Prob should of his told him to keep it under 160 bpm the first 10k or so instead of just a blanket “speed limit”. Most of this analysis is useless mid race. He also might not of done enough hills and his quads locked up but he doesn’t really talk about any of the data after the 1st hour.

[@drwilloconnor]

I appreciate your feedback. There's only so much I can cover off in 8 - 10min. The video's premise is about using your data, namely running power, to identify areas in your race where you may have been going harder than you thought. Your 160 bpm "speed limit" may be valid, but as I mentioned, it may not pick up on the short surges during the early stages, which is costly in relation to carbohydrate utilisation.