Deducing Opponents Strange Plays - Weekly Free

[@Joe_Smith_]

Saw this on BBO. Enjoyed and will probably check out some more of your vids

[@alexpournaras1431]

Fun fact about board 8: I had exactly the same thoughts as you Pete, and played the same. However I didnt mention my clubs in the biding ( 2D - 3NT ). In this way the robot after winning the Ace of clubs, returns a club. 100%. :)

[@ilmarlatti]

why not a 3d bid over the 4c bid?

[@m4_HeretiC]

question to the round: Do the robots ever consider your bid suit for leading ? Even if they occasional do it feels random to me and I remember quite some cases where they prefer a trump lead for example instead of playing my suit...

[@BridgeWithPete]

They do consider it. Usually when they have shortage though

[@mwswiftxkcd]

On 7, if you play W for the singleton D and follow your suggested line, yes it makes double dummy, but with correct defense doesn't it depend on squeezing E in diamonds and clubs? After winning the diamond lead, playing a heart to the ace, and drawing trump, you still have 2 heart losers and a club loser in your hand. To make, you have to run all the spades and pitch down to 2 losers in dummy (10C and 10D) and go for the squeeze, which only makes because E has the KQJC. If W has any of those clubs you still go down. Note that people make 12 tricks in 4 spades because E pitches a diamond, so they never have to try a squeeze. Unless I'm missing something, that squeeze is so low-probability that even if you pick the singleton D it's better to take the line you did and hope W doesn't have 3 spades.

[@mfdesq]

1. If you play safe for 6 (h to Ace, spade back, ruff a h, spade back, and so on), you make 7 if (A) diamonds are 3-3; or (B) the Jd is doubleton. There is no squeeze, because you need the Ac as an entry to the Kd for trick 12. 2. If you play it the way Peter did, you make 7 unless West has a stiff D and the trump length (although if W has a stiff d, he is likely to have the trump length). If he has a stiff D with 2 spades, you still make 6. If he has a stiff D and 3-4 spades, you go set. So 2 essentially gains when West led from a doubleton diamond or else Jxxx (the latter is unlikely). It loses when West led a stiff and has three or four trump. The lines are about the same in other situations. In a good field, it's close. I would tend to think the 5d is a stiff, because why no H lead? But either line could be right. But in an instant bot tourney, the field is just AWFUL. A number of people aren't going to be in slam - vital to beat them and not let them beat you. And for those in slam, a number of them won't make 7 even if West did lead a doubleton diamond. Just play it safe for 6 and you will get a good score.

[@mwswiftxkcd]

​@@mfdesq I see, taking exactly one heart ruff is the right safety play. Pete didn't mention the ruff but I assume that's what he meant; it's pretty obvious now you mention it.

[@BridgeWithPete]

I was trumping one heart early, not the other one.

[@rainerherrmann7025]

@@mfdesq Assuming in a strong field that almost everybody will be in slam with a combined 27 HCP and a 9 card fit is just plain wrong. Line 1 is clearly indicated and line 2 is too greedy even at matchpoints. In a strong field line 1 and 12 tricks will give you most of the matchpoints. Line 2 might only be indicated if you need to shoot for tops. I would have a headache only at board a match against a very strong team.

[@OracleIke]

Board 1, spades 3-3 is better then the club finesse, because they have already follow on two rounds of spades, a-priori odds of spades 3-3 are worse, but a-postriori odds are better

[@mfdesq]

Not the case. Remember that diamonds are 6-3, so it's actually more likely that West has four spades and East two.

[@mwswiftxkcd]

Following to 2 rounds of spades eliminates 6-0 and 5-1 breaks, but there are still more 4-2 breaks than 3-3 breaks, so the odds still favor the finesse

[@mfdesq]

@@mwswiftxkcd Well, yes and no. Considering only the spades, the odds favor a 4-2 break, but not 4-2 in a particular way. That is, either opponent could have the 4. If West follows to a third spade, then in a vacuum, the odds favor playing for 3-3. Think about xxx vs. AKQT. Do you take a third-round hook? No, in a vacuum you play to drop the Jack. But this isn't a vacuum, because East has 6 diamonds, and thus more likely short spades. Just not as the cards happened to lie.

[@mwswiftxkcd]

@@mfdesq Sure, but Pete had to choose whether or not to finesse before seeing whether W follows the 3rd spade, so it's still right to finesse, yes?

[@OracleIke]

Well I still think it is pretty obvious to talk the club finesse, since west has way more clubs then East. But I am pretty sure Pete was talking about the a priori changes, that why I made the remark. and Michael Swift, Pete already played two rounds of spades. And you don't have entries to take a spade hook. Because the only entry to your hand is a heart, which you need to ruff a diamond.