Deep Dive 21/05/2024- Thunder then heavy rain - Met Office weekly weather forecast UK

This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond. There are heavy thunderstorms for many at the moment, but the bigger talking point is the intense and persistent rain many will have on Wednesday. We try to clarify some of the details whilst there is still some uncertainty. Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Alex Burkill.
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We are the Met Office, the UK’s national weather service, and every day of the week we bring you a morning weather forecast and an afternoon weather forecast so that wherever you are in the UK we have you covered.
Forecast and any weather warnings are accurate at time of recording. To ensure you have the most up to date weather information, check the hourly forecast and live warnings on the Met Office website or app.

[@sharonsloan]

Thunderstorms are my favourite type of weather, especially at nighttime, when the power goes out so there are no streetlights.

[@metoffice]

They are fascinating but can be impactful

[@reggawardle4874]

Who are you? Dr Frankenstein..😂😂

[@user-li7pp3im6l]

I love the thunder too. And the quiet when the power is out.

[@lukemorley7481]

😂😂😂😂😂😂😅

[@JW_M]

Thunderstorms are quite cool tbf. The sounds the ligh dhows

[@zandered23]

Once a weather event has happened do you check to see which system / method of forecasting was most accurate? Does the software learn from what actually happened

[@metoffice]

Very much so. Lots of studies especially on big rvents

[@MrCliveado]

Jumping on the back of this, is the accuracy of models increasing over time?

[@suewright1299]

Many thanks Alex. My golly it’s going to be a wet one tomorrow, it’s a shame when it’s so heavy after bedding plants have been put in, but one of those things even so. I think I’ll take the rest of the week and the weekend day by day and see how things pan out. Take very great care everyone, especially when driving and especially by bike…be very careful Alex D if you’re on your bike!!! 😮Thanks to the Met for your work 😊

[@Debbie-henri]

And I'm worrying about my vegetable plants and worse, the fruit blossoms. The petals get battered to the ground in heavy rain, and I lost all but one of the newly-informed plums in last week's heavy rain. Last year, the prolonged heat cost me much of my crops, this year the rain is doing a fine job on them.

[@suewright1299]

@@Debbie-henri You and me both Debbie, we just can’t seem to win nowadays, but even so, I’d far sooner be here than in the stifling heat of so many countries! 🥵 Climate Change means extreme weather and it’s getting that way here!!

[@mikewilloughby4164]

Stuck on the Rochdale canal, unable to move because of low water levels so some HEAVY rain would be VERY WELCOME!!!

[@peterchapman3740]

get out while you can m8

[@mikewilloughby4164]

@@peterchapman3740 I would if there were more water… lol

[@pmtreacy10]

From a farmers perspective. 2024 really is the year that just keeps on giving

[@yesmate78]

Go farmers

[@dd7521]

I appreciate your hard work.

[@andy5786]

Thanks met office great deep Dive

[@Jake-vh6jp]

Pochettino deserved longer!

[@susanb.1113]

Sunny all day here, highest temp 20°, (west highlands of scotland) getting cloudy and cooler now. 1709hrs

[@auldfouter8661]

West of Scotland has been extra warm in the last 10 days or so. Garden is getting very dry and a little rain would be OK but it often doesn't stop after that.

[@spiritualsenga9250]

Be careful of what we ask for 😂

[@caitgems1]

Rain in Greenock earlier

[@Debbie-henri]

This is why we need a national pipeline to pump water to where it's needed all around this island. South West Scotland - we had a terrific downpour a few days ago. I'd not seen rain like it.

[@janefirn1328]

Growing up in the uk in the month of May regularly had thunderstorms

[@nikkia9506]

I went over the Woodhead Pass twice today, and the reservoirs seemed very low for the time of year. The rain's a nuisance, but not quite as much as lack of water. Aside from flooding, of course.

[@markhuckerIOwnAClassic-xd6qp]

i can remember lightning hitting a wheely bin once in newport, was amazing, WHAM! instant block of molten plastic and one hell of bang. was one in a million view.

[@Goat310502]

Picked Wednesday as a very bad day to be driving from Scotland to NW England - thanks for the update!

[@metoffice]

Keep updated with the warnings

[@Jake-vh6jp]

Drive safe :)

[@darraghgregory1269]

Here in Ireland we've had 5 funnels in the past 2 days and a waterspout in Co Cork on Tuesday interesting to say the least , maybe this is gonna be the norm for everywhere

[@ianclark9057]

Interesting DD Alex Tks, the other point I like to make is that we usually experience a few days of cold weather, wintery in the first 2 weeks of May. I can remember snow & grail showers off the North Sea & hard frosts at night here in Kent. Also frost candles being used in orchards & vineyards. I think I'm right in saying there has been no frost recorded this May in Kent apart from a few pockets. Frost was quite usual until mid May.

[@mikedestiny4122]

I been an amaruer since 1963. But born in May 1951.for 50 years May has always been the most settled month of my long life. High pressure, around 68%f. No rain, calm conditions. I have experienced today 16 hours of ridiculous heavy rain? But temp today 60%f...Farmers are already warning of crop failure. I mean I used to grow a 1/5th acre of allotment strawberrys in 60s. Waterlogged strawberrys will just go rotten. This is very alarming and just shows that we are now paying a very high price for ignoring warnings of this going back to 1989. I loved my summers in Sussex, but now I sometimes wake up thinking it's mid march😮😮😮

[@johnalbertcurtisjc]

Thanks for weather update Alex very well explained 👍

[@suechadwick121]

Bury in Geater Manchester has had warm, sunny weather all day today

[@blotski]

We have!! But I think it's going to be wet tomorrow.

[@garyspringham2655]

I wouldn't believe anything you lot say, I will just look out the window.

[@SteveB-yv1ls]

Typically gorgeous spring weather here in this area of central England, plus April despite being a bit off - was nowhere near as below par as some typically want to make it out to be, of course! There was of course still a fair amount of sunshine days both here in this location and in other parts of the country, but people will be people and if it's not 100% perfect obviously only then focus on the imperfect bits - (yawn!).

[@georgepointer1127]

Clear sky's and sun aren't weather,

[@christinepease890]

Thank you, Alex

[@martywig8653]

WOW six inch of rain in a matter of hours will be some spectacul , get the cows in!!!!

[@jj8526]

Thanks Alex for the concise forecast..👏👏☘

[@waynester71]

Almost June…standard UK weather 🌧️💁🏻‍♂️

[@ajburkill]

‘Standard weather’ can still be impactful

[@matthewtrow5698]

Alex, do the Met Office keep a historical record of forecasts and how they actually panned out? I'm sure they must do, as that would inform future forecasting - and how accurate a forecast was. A video related to that would be very interesting - an insight into that part of the data which is used.

[@metoffice]

Our forecasts are verified, all with the aim of improving

[@mattc7713]

Brilliant as always, thanks Alex

[@markrowcroft2890]

Really interesting - thanks you!

[@martinoban]

Northwest Scotland is desperate for some rain.

[@user-li7pp3im6l]

Llanfyllin Powys Wales was gorgeous all afternoon. Gentle rain started 6ish this evening. Good day all in all.

[@mikeoehlers6218]

When do you plan, if at all, to return the satellite image (visible, IR and water vapour) to the map base on the web site?

[@tonyhall8495]

Excellent!👍🏻😉👏 thankyou for a great update and indepth look on the weather over the next few days

[@grim3228]

Great Presenting.

[@philipmurphy2]

Always interesting to watch a Deep Dive

[@trick700]

How do you assemble the mean temperature for UK to be able to say it’s a record or not please?

[@iansingleton]

It's OK going on about temperatures! This May could be the warmest on record! I doubt that very much. Maybe UK wide cos the Outer Hebrides are 1/2 degree warmer but what about the rain? It's still raining! We've had a few days here and there when it's not rained other than that it's not stopped raining for well over a year. We've most definitely had more rain in every month over the last 12 months. I remember the weeks and weeks last year of you guys explaining that the jet stream is lying to the North of the UK allowing the low fronts to hit one after the other. Nothing has changed! It's still raining!

[@psychoanalytic]

@metoffice How did we get here from the ten day trend on 15 May, including the multi model probabilistic trend - "nothing particularly wet or unsettled"

[@kevintraynor4508]

In earlier deep dives you mentioned that the Jet stream is very weak at this time of year. Yet how do you acount for all heavy rain and flash floods?

[@vonlouie77]

Can you do a wind chart on ash fall from campi flegrei super volcano as it seems to have a fit at the moment

[@justinwilson3922]

Dam 90mm in Gloucestershire that’s a hell of a lot of rain

[@hedgerowpete]

when you did the wed/thurs 50mm rain pictures i am unable to see the green colours, try a better contrasting colour, i am watching on a phone or lap top screen and the details dont work

[@HeatherMyfanwyTylerGreey]

Thunderstorms this afternoon in Ammanford, Carmarthenshire, Wales later this Afternoon.

[@v6i838]

Do you think amber or even red weather warnings are worth considering in the areas that seem most likely to have highest rainfall amounts?

[@metoffice]

They’re being considered. The nightshift will be busy tonight

[@martynmurfitt-wrather7555]

Fed up with the rain - we need a couple of weeks of dry, sunny & warm weather to lift the spirits- and then work out a system when it only rains overnight …!

[@AwardedGamer]

Will there be an amber warning issued for rain? Thank you Alex B.

[@user-to2fz9zx3c]

I would be very interested to know if the wind is getting worse and is the direction getting more varied. It seems to swing around the uk and change direction daily.

[@paulmarkman5247]

Thanks again for the informative Deep Dive, Alex. I’m curious to know how estimates are made of how much rain is going to accumulate from tomorrow’s low pressure. Is this a question that is possible to easily answer? Cheers - Paul

[@metoffice]

The computer models calculate them…the expert meteorologists then use their great knowledge to fine tune them and work out impacts

[@adamcoole]

Does MetOffice have a view on the turbulence incident today...? Is there an increase of turbulence due to climate change?

[@PDScally]

Any possibility of providing us with the sea temperatures?

[@mikeoehlers6218]

Where is the Ap you mentioned - giving the outlook for the next 14 days?

[@metoffice]

Find details here www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/weather-app

[@Hiking-The-Great-OutDoors]

Thanks for the vid and Seems an odd direction for a low pressure to come from?

[@metoffice]

Usually from the west but not always

[@colinsace1]

In south wales Brecon area and it’s been raining quite heavy especially around 7 pm I was soaking but it’s been a really hot nice few days.

[@peanuts2105]

The technology at your disposal is incredible

[@iansingleton]

And yet they still can't get the forecast right! I can do better looking out the window!

[@hallstewart]

Did the recent space weather affect the satellites (EUMETSAT/NOAA) that make the data you use?

[@twmegs]

I don’t understand how the average maximum temperature at the beginning of May is higher than the average maximum temperature at the end of May ,surely it should be the other way round?(see graph 16.05 in) or am I missing something 🤔

[@JohnlivesontheIsleofMannow]

I love how you completely Blank the Isle of Man guy’s!

[@GojosMojo]

I have to do my dofe camping tomorrow, but by the time we get there the rain should have eased a bit.

[@chrisa9043]

Quite a lot of thunder storms on the way.

[@metoffice]

More now than when I recorded this

[@williamcaldwell-smith3865]

But in the far south apparently 😏

[@duanestreet4490]

Really surprised to see this May ave temp is coming in this high, it hasn’t felt particularly unusual. I was looking at a climate reanalyses website earlier. I was interested to see where globally is the main driver of the increase (from its climatic average). I was really surprised that it wasn’t either of the poles, it was actually the Tropics, which is staggeringly above the norm from Q2 2023 through to now). Even taking into account El Niño and AGW, the increase doesn’t seem in line. I guess the concern must be the Oceans 😬

[@heatherjoy479]

Glad it cooler here going to be a warm 2024 again

[@TheRealBancroft]

It would be interesting to compare the cumulative rainfall amount chart as at 20th May, with that of 27th May, next week 🧐

[@mlriders3282]

That’s quite a difference in terms of accumulated rainfall compare to what I have seen in yesterday’s week ahead

[@metoffice]

It is indeed. Kind of the ‘worst case scenario’ suggested yesterday

[@debbiep268]

We had a hell of a down pout this morning, and the temperatures cooler than it has been. 15 yesterday, 16 today and really cloudy. Hoping it does warm up a bit after this wets gone.

[@jivejoshmanchester983]

How come no Amber or Red Warnings up yet the area has a huge population and major roads A55 M56 M6 M60 When North East Scotland had this amount it was a Red Warning

[@maxwellhope5264]

Kicking off…..

[@bobmcdermott9535]

Thanks Alec

[@wildlifegardener-tracey6206]

Oh poor bees and other insects just starting to emerge in my garden. Grest deep dive and demonstrated how difficult it is to accurately predict where depressions are going to be. Well it'll be a test for our new roof should it move a little more south. 🌧⛈️

[@davewalters6246]

Not only is May way above average temperatures, but year to date for me is currently record-breaking as well (based nr. Birmingham with continuous data since 2008). It's also been rather wet (>1230mm since 1 July last year - way way over measured annual average of around 800mm). Anyone Noah boat-builder?

[@jubileejazz]

We have high and low pressures. Why don't we have medium pressures?

[@Simon-qn5wm]

Horrible weather, can't stand more rain & the disruption from storms. Much prefer clear blue skies, hot & sunny with no winds & crave extreme heat warnings.

[@liddylinski4916]

I hate thunderstorms, so scary

[@AwardedGamer]

Will Storm Lillian be named due to the rain?

[@metoffice]

Winds aren’t strong enough for it to count as a named storm at the moment

[@AwardedGamer]

@@metoffice Thank you for telling me.

[@martinarscott3524]

Lots of rain, and it's all my fault cos I just traded my hot hatch in for a convertible - good old British optimism lol

[@KarineManukyan-qt1pv]

❤

[@nickyfoulkes8476]

Oh dear, you have ruined my childhood beliefs. My Dad told me when I was a nipper that thunder was The Lord moving his furniture. My bubble has been burst. !!!!!

[@showme360]

This is not looking good for the farmers crops, as most only want sunshine as they have only just finished planting.

[@531c]

Some commentators bawling because some people in UK have had a rainy day in spring, whatever next!

[@cycleranger]

Thanks. But next time please don’t use white text on light blue background really hard to read :))

[@daveelliott5855]

Thunderstorm around describes it well, Nothing here on the Somerset Levels (yet again) even on Saturday they got to within 6-7 miles heard a couple of rumbles then disappeared, got rain mind. Where have the decent storms gone like we used to get years ago that went on for hours, we barely get a audiable rumble now and no visible lightning when they come over from France as soon as it gets to landfall the lightning and thunder disappears before it gets to us and we just get a soaking. Not impressed, just like the no snow events and constant flooding from October to April, there moaning over 🤣🤣

[@gplunk]

Downpour vs. Deluge....

[@Conmanthompson2]

It's Going To Be Very Wet On Wednesday And Thursday

[@SamsVlogstrainsmore]

Thanks Alex gotta love the rain not lol

[@philkfoto]

This is not the Deed Dive, this is just the forecast for 2 days.

[@weekendmodeller2740]

More showers kicking off, what like overcome with anger or starting a fight? Where does this weather man come from with his weather kicking off. LOL. 1.08, lol.

[@jacksanderson660]

Man skipped over friday like it was nothing.

[@metoffice]

😅 transition from the rain to something drier on Friday

[@AllanBurkinshaw-xo7gm]

A day is a long time in weather forecasting, ask Michael Fish.

[@lukemorley7481]

It’s a nasty one

[@aarusty51]

It's funny how all weather today no matter what it is it is always presented as a problem. Does it have to do with mind control ?

[@misterrob3513]

Same chart 3 times in one video.

[@AndrewRobinson-ee7um]

Drama. Drama. We don’t want no drama. 😂

[@eleycki]

The weather is so rubbish this last year!!

[@user-he5ec8st4h]

Normal then.