Deep dive: Is war inevitable? | US military strategist Edward Luttwak | ST Asia Future Summit 2022

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US military strategist Edward Luttwak speaks on his experience with war and discusses its potential future frontiers. This discussion at ST Asia Future Summit 2022 is moderated by Ravi Velloor, ST’s Associate Editor and Asia Columnist.
Dr Luttwak is a veteran war historian and strategist who has advised governments from Tokyo to Washington. He has also authored, among others, the 1987 book Strategy: The Logic Of War And Peace.
More from the ST Asia Future Summit 2022: • ST Asia Future Summit ...
The Straits Times’ inaugural Asia Future Summit gathers top experts from around the globe, offering insights into how countries can navigate the risks in an increasingly fraught geopolitical landscape.
The one-day summit on Nov 1 centres on three main themes: geopolitics, technology and culture.
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[@Thehopefultree]

After 36 minutes, the question “is war inevitable” was never answered.

[@MarketStoic]

He alr said, it all depends on whether President Xi is smart and savvy enough to know that he will be hated by mothers for sacrificing their only sons. Can President Xi bite, or does he only bark?

[@timloo6191]

Have u watched yes minister before?

[@VT-mw2zb]

Yes

[@michaeltse321]

@@MarketStoic Once the argument starts with X decides this, like Russian decides or Xi decides then you know it's more likely propaganda to push a narrative or evoke emotions, usually negative emotions. This guy is pushing the western narrative that the war started when Russia invaded, but it was started more than 8 years ago and part of a long term strategy of US hegemony.

[@snslifestyleorg]

@@MarketStoic It depends doesn't really answer the question.

[@GOBEF3]

Luttwak is an arrogant, delusional & out of touch has-been. Mostly :(

[@nunolip]

He is certainly and always arrogant, and very probably an has-been. But delusional & out of touch... maybe not...

[@nevadawest411]

Agreed

[@newtonojok9720]

Mr. Luttwak, the same weak China you are demeaning defeated more than fifteen countries including the US in the Korean war, in 1953. Wishing you more years to see you eat your own words if any conflicts break out between China and the US. Hope you still remember how the US ran from Afghanistan and never looked back in 2021 amid the Taliban takeover. With due respect, pride is your enemy number one.

[@mudshovel289]

Wrong. They did not defeat them, otherwise there would be no South Korea today. Yes Chinese troops tried to invade South Korea along with the North. They did not just stop fighting after they saved the North.

[@newtonojok9720]

@@mudshovel289 Just for your info, the UN force led by the US had taken over Pyongyang, N. Korean capital city. It was China's intervention that saw them pushed back to the original border that existed then and still exists today. What do you call that?

[@psk2465]

N.Korea in Jun1950 launched a surprise invasion on S.Korea to unite under Communist rule.The well armed US-led 16 nation UN force push back N.Korean force, & almost took over N.Korea, near China border.This triggered China to pour in 2m of poorly armed, trained,clothed PVA to push back USled force down to 38th parallel, briefly took Seoul. One can say it was a fair result of mighty US-led UN force saved S.Korea, while China saved N. Korea, (despite that PRC govt was founded in China on 1.10.1949).

[@newtonojok9720]

@@psk2465 Mind you this was a volunteer army, poorly trained and armed with small guns while some even shared guns and no air power but still pushed back the US and allies, yet they faced the well-armed, trained western armies backed up by armored, naval, and air powers. Compared that to the Chinese army of today with all its weight on all fronts...especially facing the US army alone. You already know the answer.

[@mudshovel289]

I call that a stalemate because they did not just stop at pushing the UN forces out of North Korea. They did try to invade South Korea and failed. South Korea recently returned the remains of Chinese soldiers killed on their soil.

[@fpm3821]

Why is the ST editor frequently interrupting the speaker whenever he seems to be saying something that might 'offend' China? Please just be objective, independent, and let people make up their own minds with open, transparent facts.

[@mengsiongkheng113]

Who is the guy? Lots of theories but geopolitically naive.

[@snslifestyleorg]

One of the hundreds of Western analysts.

[@minouyang1863]

A desperate European need attentions?

[@chubascomohd2688]

From Tanjong Rambutan.

[@sididddd4551]

If you don’t know who he is, it says more about you than him.

[@mengsiongkheng113]

@@sididddd4551 really? You don’t know who am I too, says a lot about you too if I use the same argument. One doesn’t need to know anyone to be able to make comments based on what the other said. LOL. Go have a life.

[@9wyn]

Is he really a Pentagon advisor or a nursing home escapee?

[@eymeeraosaka2954]

How can NATO be weak when it was expanding more and more Eastward, right to Russia's border? NATO started with 12 countries. Today there are 30 countries? It is also planning to expand to the Asia Pacific to contain China? Does this look like a weak military alliance? Some NATO countries are stationing American nuclear missiles in Europe? Does Russia station nuclear missiles outside its country like in Cuba or Venezuela? Is this defensive?

[@neohubris]

NATO countries spend less than 1% on defense, Trump threatened to leave NATO unless Europeans started spending money on the military. Merkel and other euros laughed at him.

[@eymeeraosaka2954]

@@neohubris Common on...NATO is not a European military alliance. NATO is a US alliance. The US controls NATO. Actions always speak louder than words. Please don't take the world to be fools...?

[@neohubris]

@@eymeeraosaka2954 why did Finland and Sweden join? European countries can leave NATO any time

[@manyjacob5761]

The weakness of NATO is becoming obvious day by day now (look at conflict btw Russian & Nato+Ukraine)! The numbers of NATO member (how many countries) has no effect due to most of them need protection not providing any positive to NATO! Russian doesn't need to station nuke in other countries, their nuke system is auto and nothing will be left in case any nuke is fired to Russian (Even Putin mentioned that in 2018... we go to heaven but nobody will be left anyway...)

[@snslifestyleorg]

@@neohubris Wrong. Germany can't form its independent military.

[@ravindertalwar553]

I pray to Almighty God for the wellbeing and happiness for everyone in the Global World based on Friendship, Mutual Understanding, Peaceful Coexistence,Non Violence and Justice For All.

[@amandarussack8591]

The old man is mastering how to say nothing for 36min.........

[@nick-jd9rq]

Why is this guy invited to speak here？he is taking nonsense all the time. Surprised😢

[@gloucesterjet1]

Luttwak said at 33:50, "Get rid of the Chinese Navy.........and........ get rid of the Chinese Air Force and .......and China should disarm" and further alluded to the welcome that the Filipinos and Japanese would give to Chinese tourists and investments and peace will be upon East Asia. This guy is amazingly out of depths with reality! He wants XJP's China to be like the China (during the Qing Dynasty) in the 1820-1945 that was militarily weak and so easily outgunned and defeated militarily by Britain, France, Japan and the US. In the process the Chinese suffered more than a century of humiliation under the hands of these foreign powers. No more humiliation ever again for China or the Chinese people! The Americans only understands hard power. So on the contrary I think the Chinese must up their production of nuclear war heads to match what the Americans have, as well as the capability to deliver these weapons to devastate the entire continental US and its territories and bases in the Pacific. That will be the day, China will not fear the Americans. Remember that the Chinese have a no first-strike policy in the use of nuclear weapons. The Americans are the ones who need to disarm first and bring all their troops and all their bombs and military equipment home. These days America demonstrates no sincerity but a lot of invidiousnes toward China; go practice what you preach and stop being hypocritical!

[@fannyli9853]

Great comment! Thank you!

[@nunolip]

You are the one out of depths, as Luttwak is totally correct. Before WW1, and even more clearly before WW2, Germany could have become the dominating power in Europe if it had renounced to be a first rate military power, and instead put out all resources in economic development. The proof is that after WW2, when Germany was forced to renounce military power, it did became the dominant economic power in Europe, and the central nation of the European Union. If China had continued the policy of being a medium size military power, capable of credible defense but not of dangerous attack, it would have easily brought all neighboring states under its dependency. Now it is unifying its neighbors against itself. And remember that the root cause of China's defeats in the XIX century was not military weakness. Military weakness was only a consequence of scientific, technological and industrial weakness. China missed the industrial revolution and had no response against steamships. Today China is strong in science, technology and industry. But it risks losing all advantages if it alienates all its neighbors.

[@ayent_einstein]

His tirade and accent gives him away. He also claims he "had fun in 3 wars".

[@lucyngpellicioli386]

A soldier who admitted shooting and killing others in the battlefield, who went through 3 wars and said "war is fun" with a smirk, is an Abomination.

[@charleswortz]

@@lucyngpellicioli386 there are many more than you might think. Its good to have them on your side 👍🏻

[@nunolip]

He is not hiding anything

[@BOB2112420]

A man who admits to enjoying war is a man you can trust (certainly more than a man who denies it).

[@navegantezen5983]

How many wars has the US actually won?

[@mudshovel289]

Most of them. They lost 3 in their whole history.

[@lookpollyitsmagic7796]

US don't fight wars. They start between other countries and then watch from afar and sucker punch at the end...

[@AbdJiA]

So much hype around this man, not worth the hype

[@MarketStoic]

2:16 What did the govt of Japan send?? Godzilla?? We demand answers! The world needs to know!

[@tonytan6547]

Does this man know what he is talking ?

[@asean1503]

No more than an entertainer

[@s1399518]

The host is a very terrible host, always trying to stop the guest speaker to speak when he was speaking on something interesting.

[@tonytan6547]

This guest is living in1900s

[@sididddd4551]

So are Putin and Xi.

[@edoardodalpra4742]

@@sididddd4551 they aren't. Putin is stuck somewhere around the Congress of Vienna, Xi thinks he's a Qing emperor or whatnot.

[@ADLfb]

Think about this 21:25 quote Edward Luttwak : " war is fun. He enjoyed war very much"

[@jovimathews]

Lol, you need to listen to his entire speech, he was referring to the previous lady. It’s call sarcasm.

[@lucyngpellicioli386]

@@jovimathews Not really. He went through 3 wars and said it was fun. He also mentioned having held a gun and shot someone in the battlefield. He is an abomination.

[@jovimathews]

@@lucyngpellicioli386 in English we call it “sarcasm”

[@wingsyc]

Sicko.

[@npc2480]

@@jovimathews no, in English we call it psychopath.

[@olderchin1558]

An old man still stuck in 1990 talking about 2020. Guy doesn't even use a smart phone. Repeating the talk of the ignorant, cyber is the new battlefield. Tell that to Putin. You can annoy someone in cyber but you can't anny Taiwan into surrender.

[@mudshovel289]

I may not be in the part you were talking about but I think he said the Russians THOUGHT they could just be using information and cyber warfare and it wasn’t that easy.

[@olderchin1558]

@@mudshovel289 The guy said that the only advantage China have us in Cyber. And China may be able to accomplish something.

[@sididddd4551]

Nobody with a brain uses a cellphone. Although, not easy these days - by design!

[@nunolip]

He is one of the few old school analysts not stuck in the past. And he is totally right that cyber is useless in a real high intensity war, as all cyber infrastructure will simply be destroyed.

[@OzIan1983]

为什么他说的每句话都和事实不符，真的服了。所谓沐猴而冠，胡说八道，美国要是都是这样的人做智囊真的是误国误民啊！

[@周虎文]

这不是很正常吗.美国的中国问题专家大多数是从没到过中国的人.

[@maggiec9633]

Why is he even on the panel? Very disappointing, ST

[@Hityouinthehead]

A pretty good story teller. Obviously he been around awhile in Asia and China doing undercover work. Take everything he says w a grain of salt

[@wingsyc]

You mean a large dose of salt.

[@shankerram6076]

He has assessed the chinese. They could not fight the Indian Army. They could only tell lies to their own people. 😆

[@brainwashington1332]

He is a strategist for Western nations, he will not say what he truly thinks unless he is paid. He could though spread Western propaganda in non paying events for his paymasters

[@brainwashington1332]

I mean he is talking about "fighting people" in the 21st century lol

[@chandrasegar9466]

@@shankerram6076 he says India lost 2000 men in ladakh..n that indians are lying..who's lying..?...

[@毛泽东-i3w]

这些老战略家早跟不上时代了，张口就是那老一套，只有头发随着时间变白，脑子还停留在80年代。

[@vajpuabtais6188]

I have always said - China has the tools for war but China may not have the will...

[@BN-em9qx]

you need to read more chinese history bruv... i think the americans said the same about the japanese until it went south (that only took 30 years).. and it took a nuke to stop. if the chinese get the upper hand in a conflict at any point.. its goodbye asia for the west.

[@lawrencelim100]

He is full of horse manure in his assessment on Taiwan

[@leemichael5652]

When dignity is concerned all he said is bogus 🙄 😒 😕 😐 😑 🤣 🙄 😒

[@pjtomtai]

Ask if war is inevitable to an US Military Strategist? You know the answer already. Haha. they live on it, of course it's inevitable, of course it's somebody else's fault. You better ask him to disclose his paycheck.

[@pauljosephsoh1732]

He is an expert? I beg to differ. Wise men think alike. Fools seldom differ

[@nunolip]

Please note that he is well know for being a contrarian...

[@godsamazinggrace5331]

Ww3 inevitable

[@吴聊君]

joke

[@jomapiku2698]

what a waste of 36 minutes of my time.

[@qingzhou9983]

Is this guy really a Military Expert? Japan sending Submarine to attack PRC? No way. Because Chinese people would love to have this excuse to rain missiles on Japan. Japan will only hide behind US. Chinese could not fight the Western Alliance? He must skip the class on Korean War. No war for single boy army? That is just his gut feeling without any real evidence since this was never happened before because no country was able to enforce one-child policy. But he thinks a party that did this task could not force the Only Boy Army to fight? This guy is either crazy or lying to you. For the food and energy, PRC now has the full support of Russia. That is no a problem. But the West could not function without Chinese Supply Chain. So a Navy Blockage on China will hurt West more than China.

[@brynduffy]

Nothing says "Unified" like military transgender recruitment solicitations in Kansas.

[@brynduffy]

Who hinges a geostrategic strategy with the highest possible stakes on an unfalsifiable claim that "Chinese are not "fighting people""? This is truly stupid.

[@audreyheart2180]

🙏❤ Hear my prayer, O Lord! Listen to my cries for help! Don’t ignore my tears. For I am your guest- a traveler passing through, as my ancestors were before me. Psalm 39:12

[@bigfish9]

why the indian guy keep tying to stop him?

[@spartanares4345]

Yeah, he needs to just shut up and let Edward speak

[@xintong7619]

So this is a man who speak for his client…US

[@nunolip]

But note that he is also frequently very critic to his clients, to the point of being frequently dismissed... and later brought back when proved right...

[@tedchyn]

bs

[@jacobk6917]

A lot of Chinese cope in these comments

[@ParDiss-e4i]

😂😂😂😂😂

[@djtan3313]

I hope d usa listens to him…

[@Penaming]

Luckily I'm a nobody, I can use the latest smartphone to play the best mobile games and watch the latest movies.

[@mdtapilatu]

That Indian narator will be payed a visit by his employer, Wars are truelly won in battle field not congressational disputes and blufs

[@AJAYSINGH-ns1vv]

China has given this interviewer package.

[@jovimathews]

The question should be, can we especially asians stop China from attacking Asia ?

[@navegantezen5983]

Why will China attack Asian countries?

[@jovimathews]

@@navegantezen5983 China had gone over 20 wars with Asia alone in modern history not including 358 wars in ancient history. And the recent spade of missiles between N Korea and S Koreas/Japan that was brought up in Beijing but to no avail….. hijacking SCS in Asia… skirmish with Vietnamese 64 were killed …China offering military aid to Afghanistan in West Asia, China and India Himalayan boarder clashed killed 4 China and over 20 India’s soldiers. Too many to list….etc etc etc

[@navegantezen5983]

@@jovimathews can you tell which 20 wars? Do you know what is a “war”?

[@jovimathews]

@@navegantezen5983 “War : a state of armed conflict between different countries or different groups within a country.” Use your VPN for better use of knowledge and history. 😉

[@djtan3313]

Haha clown

[@joem0088]

Luttwak: "Some people fight. Chinese cannot fight." Counter 1: Without going back too far, since WW1, China defeated India decisively in 1952. Counter 2: Dec-1950, Chinese forces beat the UN Ally forces along the whole front in N Korea, pushed US Marines Div 1, from Choisin Reservoir to Hungnam for a Dunkirk style sea evacuation. Counter 3: Under Japanese invasion 1937-1945, Chinese forces never stopped fighting, though it was US bombing of Japan which really ended the war, no one can say that China did not fight and surrendered to Japan as the French did to Germany in 1945. Luttwak: "War has unintented consequences. NATO was weak then Putin made it strong by attacking Ukraine." Counter: Yes, we know everything changes when the fighting starts. But you cannot take the position that you must be weak and passive in fear of the adversary being roused to great strenght. You have to plan for the latter. Europe is doing itself no favours by being force to de-industrialise for Ukraine which is not even a treaty ally. Luttwak: "Great Power autism." Counter: I would rather say Great Powers all carry a heavy legacy. They only understand the world through the lens of their prior suffering/successes and not through the liberal journalists' ideology. Call that autism if you will.

[@nunolip]

As usual Luttwak is very brash, but one has to listen correctly. He says that that the Chinese of today cannot sustain a large scale conventional war. Because China is a society of single-children, unable to sustain mass casualties. And because China needs mass protein import to obtain a diversified diet. In the 1930s, 40s and 50s, China was not a single -child society, and had a basic diet. Is he right or wrong? I do not know. But one needs to take the full point he makes.

[@joem0088]

@@nunolip Learn from Ukraine. Battles are of offset weapons mainly artillary, missiles and drones. Combattents seldom come face to face. Last year kill ratio was 7:1 in favour of Russia partly because of superiority in artillery number and shells fired per day. EU is losing because it cannot supply Ukraine with ammo and AD missiles. In the next war between China and US, a large part will be fought OTH (over the horizon), A2AD missile medium range. It'll be the question who has more launchers, missile stock, the bigger industrial base to chern out more missiles per or day, the better logistics, who have the ISR targetting, who has better more satellites, AWAC, drones, fast programmable or AI kill chain. China has a 30 year stock of ammo and missiles, better/closer logistics ... Every Pentagon war game shows China winning. So Luttwak is talking about the wrong century. Luttwak, the dynasaur.

[@nunolip]

@@joem0088 Dear Joe, nice piece of comedy, I am laughing! You are using the well know russian tactic of taking the real numbers of losses and inverting them! Ah! If kill ratio was 7:1 in favour of russia, russia would not be in the present situation of having to take their storm units from Avdiivka and send them to Bakhmut, where it still grinds from how many months now? If you really believe what you write, you have entered a reality distortion field, and discussion is useless. Now, about Luttwack. If you really listen and read to what Luttwack says, he is very critical of the overemphasis on expensive "quality" and corresponding lack of "quantity" in the USA military doctrine. So Luttwack would actually agree with some of your criticism of USA. But the points he makes about China (demography and food) are a matter of grand strategy, they are undeniable facts, and I bet serious chinese strategists listen to him. The leadership, probably ignores him. But western leaderships also ignore him, and then they come back for his advice... If China is able to take Taiwan in a couple of months, things might work out for them. But if not, they will be in a very tight situation. And wars have a way of not going as planned, as the USA found out in Iraq and Russia is finding out in Ukraine.

[@joem0088]

@@nunolip look i cannot reply to all that. Kill ratio is supported by Pentagon leaked papers. My only point is soldiering today has little to do with actual physical John Wick style combat except for storm troops. Most skills required are operating artillery, setting up radar, comouters etc mostly technical and logistics jobs. If you doubt the reported Ukraine facts we probably cannot share lessons from it as we have no common grounds. So i bid you farewell and good luck.

[@nunolip]

@@joem0088 Your kill ratio is supported by the badly edited version of the Pentagon leaked slides that spread in Telegram with kill numbers swapped. The original slides leaked to Discord have the original Pentagon estimates, which are not necessarily true, but certainly much more accurate. As you deny reality, I agree discussion is futile. Cheers!

[@BeachBoi1000]

Mr Ravi at certain point in time, kind of afraid and worried at what he has to say.

[@janakjodhan3322]

What BS, Doc..

[@Penaming]

I doubt China will ever make the same mistake by disarming or belittling their competitor like during the opium wars. Best defense is a good offense, how can a military strategist not know this by his subconscious heart.

[@VT-mw2zb]

Yes, it was a fantastic idea for Japan and Germany to start war of aggression, sure.

[@fpm3821]

😀

[@shuili666]

I think he made some points. I agree that China should be very careful not going to wars and avoid the mistakes the US made with utmost effort, even when the numbers on paper are working to China’s favor. That’s a wise advise from an old soldier. I also agree that despite all the hostility of the US, Chinese should not turn to emotional response, and make general attacks on anything Western. The government should control nationalism because a big country certainly bears bigger responsibilities. In addition, I agree China should not attack Taiwan unless provoked, despite the two were separated by the Chinese civil war. However, I think he tends to neglect the role of industrial capacity, organization of resources, and the overall national strategy, but overemphasis on military capabilities and military strategies. He also tends to take some events out of their context, and explain them by speculations. But overall, I like this old man and don’t blame his honesty, despite a little naivety when he suggests China disarmament. He doesn’t quite understand the militaristic and expansionist nature of his own country. Fortunately, Chinese and the rest of the world have good memories.

[@ashleynakamura9540]

Amazing insight

[@adamradziwill]

Moscow horde´s war record :- 1856 defeated by Britain and France 1905 defeated by Japan 1917 defeated by Germany 1920 defeated by Poland, Finland, Estonia and all Baltic states 1939 defeated by Finland 1969 defeated by China 1989 defeated by Afghanistan 1989 defeated in the Cold War. 1996 defeated by Chechnya 2022 defeated by Ukraine WW2 won USA/Britain , meanwhile Stalin's officers were shot or sent to the Gulags. Millions went to the Gulags, including Solzhenitsyn Moscow's only victories come from invading smaller countries :- a) Hungary 1956 b) Czechoslovakia 1968 c) Moldova 1992 d) Georgia 2008

[@BN-em9qx]

🤣

[@qingzhou9983]

For that India-China conflict example, the reason China did not announce the 4 death is not because of the single Boy issue, because they announced it and honored them later. China hided its few death to save face for Indian Government during a very high emotional time. Of course this is inconceivable for a Westerner.

[@MD-ib4ix]

He is brilliant.