Are Rates Coming Down? Fed Rate Cut In Three Days?

Will the first Fed rate cut happen at this week’s FOMC meeting? Where did Treasury yields end this past week & what are the highest-yielding new issue agencies, corporates & brokered CDs currently?
📢 Learn all about bond investing while yields are high! Get both our bond courses together & save $80: www.diamondnes...
⭐ Bond Beginners: www.diamondnestegg.com/bond-beginners
⭐ Bond Masters (our intermediate-level bond course): www.diamondnestegg.com/bond-masters
⭐ Join our super-supersaver membership for regular market updates & monthly live member Q&As 👉 / @diamondnestegg
⭐ Bond Courses vs KZbin Membership: • Bond Investing Basics ...
#jenniferlammer #bondbeginners #bondmasters
_________
WATCH NEXT
TIPS vs I-Bonds: • Buy I-Bonds or TIPS 20...
How To Build A Bond Ladder: • How To Build A Bond La...
*Sources & referenced videos can be found in first pinned comment
_________
DISCLAIMER
EVERYONE'S FINANCIAL JOURNEY IS DIFFERENT. YOUR PERSONAL FINANCIAL SITUATION IS UNIQUE. NEITHER DIAMOND NESTEGG, LLC, OUR WEBSITE, OUR KZbin CHANNEL, OUR OTHER SOCIAL MEDIA CHANNELS, NOR THIS CONTENT & INFORMATION (THE “SERVICE”) ARE INTENDED TO PROVIDE FINANCIAL, LEGAL, TAX OR OTHER ADVICE. NO FINANCIAL DECISIONS SHOULD BE MADE SOLELY BASED ON THE SERVICE. THE SERVICE IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL & ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY & IS NOT INTENDED TO BE A SUBSTITUTE FOR ADVICE FROM A PROFESSIONAL FINANCIAL ADVISER OR QUALIFIED EXPERT.
ALL OPINIONS & FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS OF THE SERVICE EXPRESSED HEREIN ARE AS OF THE DATE OF PUBLICATION & SUBJECT TO CHANGE. IT IS YOUR RESPONSIBILITY TO VERIFY ALL INFORMATION YOURSELF.
ANY INFORMATION PRESENTED BY THE SERVICE IS NOT AN OFFER TO BUY OR SELL, NOR A SOLICITATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY SECURITIES OR PRODUCTS MENTIONED. DIFFERENT INVESTMENTS HAVE VARYING DEGREES OF RISK & THERE IS NO ASSURANCE THAT THEY WILL BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PORTFOLIO. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. ALWAYS CONSULT A QUALIFIED FINANCIAL, LEGAL, OR TAX PROFESSIONAL REGARDING YOUR SPECIFIC SITUATION.
DIAMOND NESTEGG, LLC IS A REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISER IN THE STATE OF NEW YORK AND OTHER STATES WHERE IT IS EXCLUDED OR EXEMPTED FROM REGISTRATION REQUIREMENTS. REGISTRATION AS AN INVESTMENT ADVISER DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN ENDORSEMENT FROM SECURITIES REGULATORS.
DIAMOND NESTEGG, LLC RECEIVES COMPENSATION FROM KZbin FOR THE PRESENCE OF ADVERTISING BEFORE, AFTER, AND DURING THIS VIDEO CONTENT AS WELL AS VIA KZbin’S SUPER THANKS & MEMBERSHIP FEATURE. DIAMOND NESTEGG, LLC DOES NOT CONTROL THE CONTENT OR PRESENCE OF ANY ADVERTISEMENTS. THE PRESENCE OF ANY ADVERTISEMENT DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN ENDORSEMENT OF THE AD, COMPANY, ENTITY, OR PRODUCT BY DIAMOND NESTEGG, LLC.
_________
CONTENT DISCLAIMER
THE VIEWS & OPINIONS EXPRESSED THROUGH THE SERVICE ARE SOLELY THOSE OF DIAMOND NESTEGG, UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFICALLY CITED. MATERIAL PRESENTED IS BELIEVED TO BE FROM RELIABLE SOURCES & NO REPRESENTATIONS ARE MADE BY DIAMOND NESTEGG AS TO OTHER PARTIES' INFORMATIONAL ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS. ALL INFORMATION OR IDEAS PROVIDED SHOULD BE DISCUSSED IN DETAIL WITH A QUALIFIED ADVISER, TAX OR LEGAL PROFESSIONAL PRIOR TO IMPLEMENTATION.
OUR KZbin CHANNEL MAY PROVIDE LINKS TO THIRD-PARTY WEBSITES FOR YOUR CONVENIENCE. WE HAVE NO CONTROL OVER THE ACCURACY OR CONTENT OF THESE LINKS.
THE COMMENTS ON THIS CHANNEL, AND OUR OTHER SOCIAL MEDIA CHANNELS, ARE THOSE OF THE CREATORS & DO NOT NECESSARILY REFLECT THE VIEWS & OPINIONS HELD BY DIAMOND NESTEGG, LLC.
COMMENTS, CHATS & CONVERSATIONS ARE A SPACE FOR CIVIL & RESPECTFUL DISCOURSE & CONSTRUCTIVE EXCHANGES OF INFORMATION, VIEWPOINTS & OPINIONS. WE WELCOME FREE EXPRESSION, REGARDLESS OF VIEWPOINT, BUT RESERVE THE RIGHT TO REMOVE ANY RESPONSE AND SUSPEND OR BAN INDIVIDUALS FOR ANY REASON. PLEASE NOTE THAT COMMENTS, CHATS & CONVERSATIONS MAY BE SUBJECT TO PREAPPROVAL.
DUE TO THE SOCIAL NATURE OF THE SERVICE, THESE VIDEOS MAY CONTAIN CONTENT COPYRIGHTED BY ANOTHER PERSON OR ENTITY. DIAMOND NESTEGG, LLC CLAIMS NO COPYRIGHT TO SAID CONTENT & CANNOT BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE FOR THE COPYRIGHTED CONTENT. DIAMOND NESTEGG SHARES & STRIVES TO VERIFY INFORMATION BUT CANNOT WARRANT THE ACCURACY OF COPYRIGHTS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INFORMATION ON OUR SERVICE. ANY COPYRIGHTED MATERIAL SHARED ON THIS SERVICE IS INTENDED TO BE SHARED BY FAIR USE. IF YOU HAVE A COMPLAINT ABOUT THE USE OF COPYRIGHTED MATERIAL, PLEASE CONTACT DIAMOND NESTEGG PRIOR TO MAKING A COPYRIGHT CLAIM. ANY INFRINGEMENT IS UNINTENTIONAL & WILL BE RECTIFIED TO ALL PARTIES' SATISFACTION.
PLEASE REFER TO OUR TERMS OF SERVICE & PRIVACY POLICY LINKS FROM OUR WEBSITE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

[@DiamondNestEgg]

💎 Get our popular bond course bundle & save $80: www.diamondnestegg.com/home#_paa2isucf 💎 Bond Beginners (our foundational-level bond course): www.diamondnestegg.com/bond-beginners 💎 Bond Masters (our intermediate-level bond course): www.diamondnestegg.com/bond-masters 💎 And join our super-supersaver membership for regular market updates & monthly live member Q&As kzbin.info/door/nexoc6tvesvcCEzZhmI-Agjoin >>>>>>>>>> WATCH NEXT >> Our Bond Courses vs KZbin Membership | Which Is Right For You: kzbin.info/www/bejne/fmbLZXivnZWboNE >> Bond Beginners Course Sneak Peak | I-Bonds vs TIPS: kzbin.info/www/bejne/q4mzq5WgmpaaaKc >> Bond Masters Course Sneak Peak | How To Build A Bond Ladder: kzbin.info/www/bejne/pmqTenejjdNkb9U >>>>>>>>>> SOURCES & FOLLOW-UP VIDEOS FOR TODAY'S VIDEO: www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html www.treasurydirect.gov/auctions/upcoming/ home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product www.fidelity.com/ >>>>>>>>>> Here is the overview for Bond Beginners: 1. Bond Basics What A Bond Is & How A Bond Works Why Invest In Bonds New Issue vs Secondary Market Bonds Interest Rates & Bond Prices Current Yield & Yield To Maturity Always Remember This! Buying At Par, Above Par & Below Par Different Types Of Bonds Wrap-Up 2. The Risks Of Bond Investing Seven Key Bond Risks Credit Risk Interest Rate Risk Reinvestment Risk/Call Risk Inflation Risk Liquidity Risk Currency Risk & Country Risk Bond Risk Mitigation Strategies Wrap-Up 3. US Treasuries Overview What Are US Treasuries Why Invest In Treasuries Where Can You Buy Treasuries How Are Treasuries Taxed Wrap-Up 4. Treasury Bills What Are Treasury Bills (T-Bills) When Do T-Bill Auctions Happen Where Should You Buy At Auction Auto-Roll When Buying At Auction Where To Find Recent Auction Results High Rate vs Investment Rate Reopening Auctions Cash Management Bills (CMBs) Buying & Selling On Secondary Market Wrap-Up 5. Treasury Notes & Bonds What Are Treasury Notes & Bonds When Do Auctions Happen Buying Treasury Notes & Bonds Auction High Yield vs Interest Rate Floating Rate Notes (FRNs) Treasury Zeros (STRIPS) Wrap-Up 6. TIPS (Inflation-Protected) What Are TIPS When Do TIPS Auctions Happen Nominal vs Real Yields Negative Yields How Do You Adjust TIPS For Inflation Taxes On Phantom Income Secondary Market Liquidity Wrap-Up 7. I-Bonds (Inflation-Protected) What Are I-Bonds How Does I-Bond Interest Work I-Bonds vs TIPS The Annual I-Bond Limit Wrap-Up 8. Agency Bonds The Universe Of Bonds What Are Agency Bonds How Are Agency Bonds Taxed Treasuries vs Agencies Who Might Want To Consider Agencies Yield-To-Call & Yield-To-Worst Where Can You Buy Agency Bonds Wrap-Up 9. Municipal Bonds Our Bond Universe Gets More Complex What Are Municipal Bonds How Safe Are Munis How Are Munis Taxed The De Minimis Rule Social Security & Medicare Premiums Treasuries, Agencies & Munis Who Might Want To Consider Munis Wrap-Up 10. Corporate Bonds Our Bond Universe Is Complete What Are Corporate Bonds How Safe Are Corporates Corporate Bond Hierarchies Five Key Features Of Corporate Bonds How Are Corporates Taxed Treasuries vs Corporates, Etc. Who Might Want To Buy Corporates Wrap-Up >>>>>>>>>> Here is the overview for Bond Masters: 1. Stocks vs Bonds Historical Performance Are Bonds Really Less Volatile Why Invest In Bonds Accumulation vs Decumulation Allocation of Stocks vs Bonds Wrap-Up 2. Which Bonds Might Be Right For You Treasuries & Other Types of Bonds Nominal vs Real Yields Inflation vs Non-Inflation-Protected Taxable vs Tax-Advantaged Accounts Wrap-Up 3. Bond Ladders & Other Bond Strategies Normal vs Inverted Yield Curve What Is A Bond Ladder 5 Important Bond Laddering Questions Laddering When Rates Are Rising Laddering When Rates Are Falling Laddering When Rates Are Uncertain What Is A Bullet What Is A Barbell Wrap-Up 4. Holding to Maturity vs Selling Early Why Hold to Maturity When To Sell Early Before Maturity Tax Implications Of Selling Early Wrap-Up 5. Individual Bonds, Bond Funds, Etc. Why Buy Individual Bonds Why Buy Bond Funds Bond Fund Considerations Key Bond Fund Concepts CDs vs Treasuries Other High-Yield Investments Wrap-Up 6. Our B.E.S.T. Model Portfolios By Age Our B.E.S.T Model Portfolios By Age Model Portfolios In The Industry B.E.S.T Model Portfolio Difference How Much Do You Need To Retire? How I Use The Rules of 100, 110, & 120 B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (20s) B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (30s & 40s) B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (50s & 60s) B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (70s+) Wrap-Up 7. The Decumulation Phase What Is The Decumulation Phase? Bear Markets & Recessions What Can You Do In Bad/Bear Markets Decumulation Tax Considerations The 4% Rule The Bucket Strategy The Flooring Approach Jen’s Bucket Strategy With A Twist Wrap-Up >>>>>>>>>> Thanks for visiting our personal finance channel! We hope this content will help fast-track your financial journey! Everyone's financial journey is different. Please note that: 1) there are questions/ comments which I will not be able to answer without fully understanding your financial, personal & other circumstances 2) we will not ask you to call us or send us money in the comments on this channel or any of our other social media accounts, so if you see comment(s) along those lines, it is most likely spam - PLEASE DO NOT ENGAGE WITH SPAMMERS OR GIVE OUT YOUR PERSONAL INFORMATION FOR YOUR OWN SAFETY.

[@ScooterOnHisWay2024]

Nobody on YT does this better than Jennifer does in these videos.

[@DavidLitman-ph9lu]

Congratulations for your 500th video!!

[@DiamondNestEgg]

I didn't even realize David - thanks for this!

[@ebrahimhabib477]

Good job as always perfect explanation, very professional

[@KayKay14m]

There may not have been a rate cut, but the 1-year T-Bill auction for August 5th is showing an expected yield of 4.618%. This is a huge drop from a month ago. I'm now only buying 6 month T-Bills since I can still get 5% (for now). EDIT: Now the 6-month T-Bill is showing a 4.8% yield. I'm probably going for 8-week and/or 13-week T-Bills now. I'm also looking to buy longer-term bonds with coupon rates over 4% to replace the T-Bills that will be maturing over the next year. I expect interest rates to drop back down to 2.5% by 2026.

[@rickclark1372]

In interest rate events such as the period we are in, once the Fed cuts the rate, are they historically most likely to not raise it again in the short term, or is it a coin flip whether they lower or raise again?

[@DiamondNestEgg]

Before the Internet bubble burst, rates moved regularly (both up & down). In the last two decades though, the Fed has tried to be more consistent/stable when possible & based on what Fed Governor Powell has said, it seems like that's what he'd like to stick to (meaning if they lower, their preference would be to keep it stable or keep lowering, rather than hiking again), but again, you never know right? If they lower & inflation picks up again, it's hard to say what they will do given their level of data dependency. This could make a good video topic actually if we can manage it!

[@rickclark1372]

@@DiamondNestEgg Thanks, I understand. There are no certainties and Fed tools may not be as effective as they were in the past. I am mostly concerned with "DCA" of Bills into long-terms and wondering whether or not it is time to step up the amounts being allocated into LT. Understanding of course that things are further complicated by LT rates not being anchored to ST.

[@DiamondNestEgg]

@@rickclark1372 Hi Rick - there are some few different ways rate cuts could play out. The answer isn't straight-forward. I'll see if I can incorporate into this weekend's update video.

[@vivisimonvi]

Am I not reading the data correctly? I'm looking at the 5-Year T-Note that was 4.625% in April of this year but it's been on a steady decline for every new auction since.

[@Howard2006]

Is there any reason to use Treasury Direct instead of discount brokerage for buying Treasury bills, notes, bonds?

[@murraypassarieu9115]

Not in my opinion

[@shelleycore2978]

Treasury Direct lets you buy $100 minimum increments (brokerages require $1000 minimum) but I believe you get paper bill so it makes it harder to sell if you want to sell before maturity from what I recall.

[@vivisimonvi]

TD is the only option if you want to buy I-Bonds and TIPS.

[@e79422]

Maybe a little more complicated if the brokerage bought out...which happens. Can't think of any other reason?

[@murraypassarieu9115]

@@vivisimonvi true for I-Bonds but TIPS can be bought through brokerages

[@funguy1086]

I will miss 5% cds

[@charlesvandenburgh7754]

I have most of my investments in CDs.

[@geoffgordon9569]

Made a beautiful ladder with them.

[@Charles-jg8dz]

@@geoffgordon9569 Best ladders when spread out between 6 and 18 mo.

[@robertc7531]

I'm tempted to buy some 52 week bills just to try and lock in 5% for a year and then revist after that?

[@r.c.s.j9774]

@@robertc7531 52 wk bill issues on Aug.1 will be under 5% for sure

[@ATHJD07]

Don't go all in is advice I take to heart. So glad I made last week's rung of my ladder extra small - and a 4 wk instead of a 17 wk. The July 31-Aug 1 auctions are a planned skip week for me, whew! I'm switching back to 4 wk bills in August. I'll keep buying T bills until they earn less (on the tax comparable Fidelity chart) than my HYSAs or any munis or agencies that are short enough for my time horizon. I wouldn't sleep at night buying agencies or munis that mature out past my life expectancy, even if they are callable.

[@DiamondNestEgg]

Rates have been down all week so far...

[@ATHJD07]

@@DiamondNestEgg only the 4 wk and 8 wk came close to holding steady today.

[@Scientist538]

Always appreciate the analysis

[@craigroberts757]

Thank you, Jenn. Great info and I need to get to work. We all knew things would probably change toward the end of the year and it has.

[@henriquezfamily5135]

Thank you again, for your feedback and walking us through each step, your amazing, I do think September will b the first rate cut ✌️

[@DiamondNestEgg]

You're welcome & thanks for sharing!

[@sueh6287]

My 4 week and 13 week laddered Tbills roll over each week. The 52 week ladder rolls next week.

[@UniqDon]

this week from japan

[@shanahoddy9776]

Thank you! I’m considering a 3 year fixed myga. I’m seeing them around 6%

[@bigtoeknee11]

Those myga rates will be coming down once the Fed rates start coming down lock it in now if serious.

[@eddenoy321]

@@pware9643 I am also interested in direct buy MYGAS. Gainbridge is another direct buy outfit. Would like to get hold of a list of direct buy myga annuity sources.

[@singsongcindy8865]

I am retired. I have half of my retirement assets in 3-10 year MYGAs at 5.5-6%. All under the 250k state guaranty fund limit. All A- or better rating. Most are in 10 year MYGAs, which allow 10% penalty free withdrawals in the event I should need it. The other half is in treasuries, and I am still unsure where I want those funds. In my dream world the market would have the MAJOR correction that is way past due and I would start buying fairly priced ETFs. Don’t see many bond funds with enough long term solid returns that make me feel good about buying them. Am in Jennifer’s bond courses hoping to learn enough to feel confident and choosing individual bonds. Good luck to all in shifting times.

[@ScottScott-b4h]

Hi Jennifer. Is it wise to move a percentage of my bond portfolio toward TIPS or Ibonds if I believe rates are beginning a descent, and what % would be a good target number? Thanks.

[@DiamondNestEgg]

I talk about the starting point for a % allocation in yesterday's member video: kzbin.info/www/bejne/d5WZXphsjdFlhqs TIPS are slightly more complicated than I-Bonds, but have a higher real yield, so which one you choose, will depend on your comfort level. This video explains the differences between the two in case you haven't seen it yet: kzbin.info/www/bejne/q4mzq5WgmpaaaKc

[@stephenluedders4720]

I understand that in the GDP numbers, government spending accounted for more than private sector spending. If this is the case, that should mean that the government continues the spending that is contributing to inflation. Any thoughts on how this government spending will affect the Fed approach going forward?

[@murraypassarieu9115]

That’s not true. No way the government is the biggest part of GDP. It’s a good chunk, a little more than 30 percent, but not the biggest one. Besides government spending contributes a lot to the private sector through contracts etc. Cut it too much and the economy will collapse.

[@Tillyduck]

No cuts till after the election - then not much.

[@alexadams1627]

Jennifer, thanks for the outlook forecast.

[@e79422]

None of those rates are call protected. They are in the 4 percent range.

[@cesarebeccaria7641]

Our largest ladder step matured on the 25th. $50k. I put an order in at Fidelity for the 26 week that auctions on Monday. Fidelity expects a yield of 5.137%. Sounds good to me, plus the interest will fall into 2025. Every T-Bill we've bought thru Fidelity since March 2023 has had an actual yield at auction that beat the expected yield...except one--a 26 week from February this year, where the actual yield was under the expected by 0.015%. Fingers crossed.

[@cesarebeccaria7641]

OK. Auction over. 26 week T-Bill maturing 1/30/25 yield 5.126% (0.011% under Fidelity's expected--the second time since March 2023). Still a shade better than bank CD's for a similar term. Two more chances for the Fed to drop rates before the election. Drop or not, I can live with this yield. We'll see what comes next. We've got another #10k maturing tomorrow. May wait for another 52 wk or may move it into one of Fidelities balance funds or income funds. Few more "steps" maturing in August.

[@petrao8669]

I think that a rate cut is unlikely this year, unless the economic date deteriorates significantly.

[@DiamondNestEgg]

The market continues to bet on a September rate cut - let's see where the numbers fall out in the coming months

[@Howard2006]

Great video outlining what is going on in the bond world!

[@mandeepsaluja-tb7qd]

Buying more tlt stock before fed first cut in September 🎉

[@storyoc]

ibe been buying 52week t bills monthly but had to change my bank acct and tresury direct rejected my banks stamp two times but finally got right but i decide to just put some money into jenius bank savings at 5.25%-this month and see what the rates are next month on the t bill-maybe go shorter term for more $

[@fasteddy3336]

No

[@blue-fj9ky]

I'm long fixed income closed end funds, specifically the PIMCO funds. I expect declining rates. These funds are actively managed, utilize leverage, and are high yield, with portfolios of high yield corporate, foreign, mortgage backed and other fixed income securities. I think fixed income CEFs would be a good topic for a video!

[@cslloyd1]

No rate cuts this year.

[@ELIOSANFELIU]

Intresting¡¡Thank you¡¡

[@petrao8669]

Rolling 4-wk T-bills

[@DiamondNestEgg]

You're very consistent Petra - what would it take to get you out of rolling 4-week T-Bills (I'm just curious - no need to reply if you don't want to)

[@petrao8669]

I am waiting for a more definite sign that rates have peaked. I have already DCA with all the longer term money I want to ladder up to now. I would like to secure a higher, longer term rate before I make any more long-term commitments. I will keep listening to you and your advice concerning long-term rates peaking. If I cannot get any higher rates than what they are now, then I will eventually put the money into the market.

[@jasonteacherthailand]

Hope not, loving swvxx

[@Dave-cf4xq]

Buying the JP Morgan one year 5.1% CD via Fidelity

[@dogsarefun2]

callable?

[@Dave-cf4xq]

Yes. But I'm good with that. I'll take the 5% as long as I can but I don't think they'll exercise the call which can't be executed before January anyway.

[@chrishardin7183]

A cut this month is unlikely because the Fed does not like to surprise the market. The market is expecting a September rate cut so that's likely. It won't shock the market.

[@Yao-m1s]

Excellent

[@misternobody9801]

September is virtually guaranteed but I’m starting to see the case for announcing a cut at this meeting in July.

[@Laborkei]

No !

[@allsportsexpert]

No chance rate cut this coming Wednesday. Let's hope it will happen in September.

[@kindnesstoall]

Which we could see into the future.. want to buy a house 😂😂😮😊

[@343butterfly]

No not till sep

[@anthonyC214]

After the election and Not before

[@singsongcindy8865]

This is what SHOULD happen

[@ScooterOnHisWay2024]

If they cut next week, the equity market will overreact to the upside. But it would be a mistake. An effort to placate and play politics.

[@lesbolstad]

They might make one cut just for political cover- and help the Democrats win in November; but inflation is far from under control. And I doubt there will be meaningful rate cuts for a couple years or more

[@richmurphy8144]

Agree. Then Joe, I mean, Kamala can say - look what I did.

[@singsongcindy8865]

⁠@@richmurphy8144exactly, and it STINKETH if they do so. It will NOT hurt our economy to hold off on a .25% rate cut for another 3 months. If our entire economy can only survive if Powell does a .25% cut in September instead of November, our country is in bigger trouble than we imagined.