Did MLB Just SOLVE Pitching Injuries?

[@joshuatilton6221]

“Use it or lose it” is the simple answer for most guys. For a healthy player to shut it down completely for 2-3 months is a great plan to get them unhealthy by that same time next year

[@2115-l9o]

I remember Trevor Bauer had said in the past that even in his rest day, he would rest fully just the day after his starts and then start throwing again, from light exercises to let his joint moving to hard throw progressively till his next starts. I think that's one of the reason he hadn't faced any major injuries in his arms yet in his career and still able to maintain 96mph avg (top at 98-99mph) fastball velo.

[@ozzuzzomg]

same thing with chapman, in the offseason he seems to be posting a goddamn bullpen video every like 3 days lmao

[@2115-l9o]

@@ozzuzzomg That's why even at the age 36, he's still the Cuban Missile we all love !!!

[@barbaryn7899]

​@@2115-l9oseems like if you want to win a WS, trade for Chapman

[@garrettboyum4070]

If you find guys who are real old timers they would say that if you have arm pain to just "throw it out" meaning to just keep throwing. Reach out to Dana Kiecker who said this to our guys when we were coaching together back then I thought it was one of those outdated sayings but when you begin to think about it from a workload stand point they intuitively knew this from experience. Years later I've confirmed this by having to throw BP on back to back days feeling sore, stiff, and in pain all over thought I would be completely cooked after the second day. Made it throw that whole session and felt like a whole new man after... It blew my mind that I wasn't completely broken and injured afterwards. Key caveats that I think made that experience successful 1) I initially was not throwing high intent but rather very sub-max, distance wasn't super far, backed up and threw harder as my arm loosened up. 2) I was wearing lots of layers (cold up in the Mid-West) and so I got a really good sweat going, I didn't take layers off until my arm felt loose. Raising your core temperature is key IMO.

[@matthewthayer9316]

One thing I think gets consistently overlooked: It used to be that if you blew out your arm, your career was probably over. A lot of the guys that are pitching today would have had the talent but not the durability to survive in eras before before Tommy John surgery and other modern treatments. Everyone remembers the 300 game winners, but not the innumerable talented kids whose arms just gave out along the way.

[@barbaryn7899]

Steve Carlton was known as one of the best strikeout pitchers, never had a K/9 over 9

[@benballier9580]

Awesome stuff as per usual

[@LanceBroz]

Thanks!

[@woundedcrow4606]

A way to possibly correlate this study is by looking at high school pitchers in the Northern US, compared to pitchers who play year round in warm climates. Or if they’re multi sport athletes who don’t throw a baseball most of the year.

[@LanceBroz]

I think that’s a decent place to start. The depth we’d need to be confident in some causation would likely entail some kind of workload tracking. Ie, the year round throwers running themselves ragged wouldn’t help us too much here. The amateur side is also a place I didn’t touch much here. Was more focused on MLB. I admit ignorance on the amateur side if I’m being honest. Better people to have opinions than I. MLB and upper pro level is a different beast from a workload standpoint. Not worried as much about developing bodies, growth plates, etc

[@johnphamlore8073]

Simple solution: Limit the low outside strike and raise the actually called strikezone. That makes strikes actually pitches that can be hit, so that hitters are encouraged to swing more, reducing strain on pitchers. Also getting rid of the low outside strike lets hitters not have to hang out over the plate, reducing hit by pitches.

[@garrettboyum4070]

There have also been some logical errors that have occurred on the S&C side such as well since the vast majority of everything that happens in baseball happens in the ATP-CP system and Baseball players aren't long distance runners then we should spend all our time focused on training the main energy system we use. Trevor Bauer's early training career revolved around this type of thinking. The flaw is that the ATP-CP system is regenerated by Aerobic system and the efficiency of that system directly affects how quickly/how long it takes the ATP-CP system recovers back to 100%

[@LanceBroz]

Really good experiential info on both of your comments here, appreciate you sharing!

[@CoachLoach]

Lance, as somebody who wants to work in the baseball industry, I really appreciate you!! Keep doing what you’re doing man we love to hear from yoh

[@blackdogization]

Thank you for the summary and the takeaways, this is definitely not only complex but also a controversial topic. Any of the researchers from the American Sports Medicine Institute ? because they have a ton of data on this

[@LanceBroz]

I would be surprised if ASMI wasn’t involved somehow in this study. Main data for pt 2 of this that will be interesting is what the data source is for players “workload management.”

[@SputnikRSS1]

The current delusion that volume is the enemy (aka pitch count) needs to end. Intensity and rest time are the keys you can throw a ton of pitches as long as you rest properly after or you can manage your intensity through your outing.

[@nickmigs61]

I would assume this approach is similar to base training in running, swimming, or cycling. You have three variables to work with for workload: intensity, volume, and duration. You cannot increase more than one at a time. Over the course of a season, all three variables are addressed. After the season, allow for a two-week recovery period. Begin with lifting and light throwing, gradually increasing volume. The focus in lifting should be on explosive movements since pitching is an explosive activity, rather than total fitness. Next, increase the duration while maintaining the same volume. This means getting in longer throwing sessions at one time. Once the pitcher has adapted to increases in volume and duration, shift the focus to intensity. However, every throwing session should include some hard throws to ensure the arm doesn’t forget how to throw with high effort. These hard throws should start low in volume-about 5-7 throws at 95% effort-and should be incorporated almost immediately. The key is to gradually increase the intensity throughout the build-up phase. By following this progression, the pitcher will enter the season with the capacity to handle the workload and duration required, while intensity is further developed during spring training and into the early part of the season.

[@kevinmcgrath7509]

5 to 7 pitches.....why even bother throwing.....why not just play video games?

[@jkahl5596]

Because if you dont, your arm gets blown out when you have to throw high intensity during the season ​@kevinmcgrath7509

[@nickmigs61]

@ well that’s 5-7 for the first day. Throwing is an unnatural motion for the arm. It creates a significant amount of stress on the elbow. Those muscles and accompanying ligaments and tendons need time to repair the continual damage done through throwing.

[@ryanmeech8630]

I would be careful making arguments based on data labelled "IL Placement", because that's not the same thing as injuries, per se. The rule change that allowed for 10-day stints & changed the name from DL to IL was in that time period, so the definition of the stat itself changed, as did the way teams use the injury designation. Those charts would show huge movement even with no change to actual health. Without taking that into account, much of this analysis falls apart even though it's very well-reasoned.

[@legalsomalian8237]

A wearable that measures stress on the arm would be a game changer

[@LanceBroz]

Yeah, and making this data public would be fascinating (though unlikely to happen). Tracking throws and rigorous monitoring is a great place to start. Still kinda funny to me that guys like Nick Martinez that do this are the outliers it seems. Clearly not embraced by the league as a whole to this point

[@derrickdigiulio4027]

August il placements also increase as playoff teams try to give their star arms a short break before the post season...

[@Rynems1]

Between winter leagues, WBC, etc. do we potentially have enough data on pitchers who worked during their offseason and how that affected odds of injury to be useful?

[@capraagricola]

13:30 heck I'm a bodybuilder and I throw plyos just to move athletically and get external rotation

[@LanceBroz]

Love it hahaha

[@patrickrafford3488]

Any thoughts on the foreign substance ban in 2021 having an effect on injuries spiking then gradually decreasing in the following seasons as pitchers adjusted? I know Glasnow said in an interview that he thought that was a factor that played into his injury when he went out for tommy john right after the ban.

[@moyatooctopus]

Hi Lance, fantastic analysis. The workload theory is fascinating but it does beg the question, does the data show that Relief pitchers are getting injured at a higher rate than starting pitchers?

[@LanceBroz]

I don’t know if data bores that out, good question. I would bet the rates are somewhat comparable? If you’re a reliever, there’s probably a reason why (mechanics, command, can’t hold velo). Perhaps those traits predispose you to some kind of injury risk. The workload point comes more from an individual pitcher’s capacity to take on the work they’re going to get in season. I don’t think it’s necessary to bin that SP vs RP. The hypothesis is that by throwing more and building higher chronic workloads throughout the offseason (very generally phrased here), you’d lower your individual level of injury risk. Could there be other factors that are more difficult to change / are potentially immutable? Sure. But those are different than intensity or volume issues strictly related to programming.

[@kevinmcgrath7509]

The higher workloads need to be a priority for youth pitchers while their bones are still growing. Waiting until they are mature is too late......

[@Flowfnm]

I think this is true, Trevor Bauer has said that he used to long toss every day to get his arm prepared for the season and I haven’t seen him have any major arm injuries.

[@therealbs2000]

Trevor once said in one of his early videos that he can do the stuff he does because hes been training to go hard since an early age. There must be some happy medium here 😂😂😂

[@anthonyesbensen233]

You mentioned the double hook as a potential idea for MLB. What do you think of going after roster manipulation? Maybe only being able to carry 11 or 12 pitchers and limiting how much roster churn there would be (I can’t name a specific rule but more restrictions on sending guys up and down a ton). I’ve seen stuff from Ben Lindberg on the idea. Love the content Lance!

[@Jeremy-The-Bullfrog]

I think the restrictions they made in 2022 (when they limited it to 5 callups before a player had to be put on waivers) are as far as any organization can handle given the reality of how far starting pitchers go in games. You can't just safely switch a flip to have starters throw more.

[@anthonypang7927]

In npb pitchers have higher pitch counts but an extra day rest and they throw more in spring training and have way less injuries But pitchers really tend to be built differently as individuals

[@LanceBroz]

Yep, I think we domestically can learn a bit from what they’re doing on the workload side overseas. Baseball would scoff at shrinking pitcher spots on the roster and cutting games but it would probably be the most dramatic positive change possible with changing the weight of the baseball or something.

[@anthonypang7927]

@@LanceBroz i have a mlb game ball plus a npb and kbo game ball I held onto all of them and the mlb ball just feels harder to grip and i mimiced pitching with all of them and thought... Mlb ball felt like a greater strain In fact pitchers who have pitched in npb/kbo and mlb have made that observation

[@HandsomeMagician]

Not to say it's the only factor, but NPB pitchers have less velocity which adds to why they stay healthier, I think.

[@anthonypang7927]

@@HandsomeMagician they do throw more off speed and breaking stuff, but yes it is a factor and you combine that with other factors like the mlb ball and how difficult it is to grip, the fact the conditioning work may be better in npb and the extra days rest and i think its a recipe for injuries Also japanese batters are harder to strikeout so many npb pitchers will tend to aim for groundouts and when you consider the level of defense is superior in npb, its something that works well for them

[@duewhit310]

Good umpiring is important Who wants to go through the frustration & anxiety of having guys like Angel Hernandez calling balls & strikes. Too much added pressure & uncertainty doesnt help.

[@LanceBroz]

Agreed! That position should be more merit based than it has been in the past.

[@mattl7695]

It seems organizations will be happy to use a guy at 98-100 until he blows his arm out and go on to the next guy instead of taking extra care of the pitcher once in the show. I think people are ignoring that it’s not just the guy trying to win a job but also the organization trying to piece together wins however possible.

[@LanceBroz]

Absolutely agree. To Bannister’s point at the end of this video, it’s the league’s job to create barriers to change incentives for teams. It’s not the teams fault for optimizing to win games within the parameters they’re given. And nobody should expect the teams to change because it’s “healthier” for the game. League needs to step in and force adjustments.

[@tonysu8860]

Bottom line is that we''re still in caveman days. not enough data has been collected and not enough kinetics is understood to understand the limits and capabilities o athletes to actuallly know cause and effect.

[@Wo1fLarsen]

Average major league career is 5.5 years. Get in, get paid, get out, invest wisely.

[@LanceBroz]

Main issue is that if you’re in the league for 5 years, you’ve only gotten to arb 2. Career earnings lower than other sports for that much service time

[@utubeadsaredworst5121]

That is probably more reflective of the Free Agent rules than injuries, you don’t get fair market value until year 6 in a vast majority of cases

[@duewhit310]

No pitch clock Let them take their time

[@LanceBroz]

I don’t think that would have much impact. Pitchers adjusted too quickly. The older guys were affected most (Verlander, Scherzer) I think. And the pace of the game has improved with it. So net benefit imo.

[@barbaryn7899]

Not everyone is a Randy Johnson but theyre all trying to be. Steve Carlton is one of the most known steikeout pitchers, never had a K/9 over 9. Hed get 300Ks every season by throwing 350+ innings

[@bench-clearingbrawl7737]

Instead of 162 they should cut the season to 130. Instead of a five man rotation go for six man rotation. 130 games a season SP pitch once a week 6 man rotation Teams carry 14 pitchers Also, having 2 DH’s instead of 1. Giving more opportunity for power hitters to find a job. 14 position players instead of 13

[@f430ferrari5]

No. They shouldn’t suddenly change rules as such but if the Dodgers win multiple WS titles then yeah rule changes as such will possibly come into effect or what it might actually do if it stays the same is produce more dual role players. What is the preference. Ohtani hasn’t even shown his true value. The Angels used him as a starting pitcher who can DH. The Dodgers plan to use Ohtani as a DH who can pitch from time to time thus become the 14th pitcher on the roster without having to use a 14th spot. It MLB caves in and expands the roster then Ohtani’s dual role ability is diminished. It’s still an advantage to have him but it won’t have as great an impact. The MLB commissioner is a bit of a nut. He suggest some Golden Bat rule which allows a one time best hitter to move up in any ideal situation. Even little league doesn’t do this. This helps teams with less depth. Part of winning should emphasize depth. It demonstrates a franchise’s consistent managing its players via draft and development. It isn’t always about money.

[@richardw3052]

20% reduction in revenue while increasing the size of the team isn't gonna fly

[@brendancoulson1322]

No one ever wants to talk about labrum surgery tho😐