Don't Tell me The Odds

[@davidanderegg1232]

I’m now convinced Wes has a hidden drop penalty

[@tiqosc1809]

that... would be a funny thing and also sad

[@donanilao7724]

Spread it as a rumor

[@shadybadger7896]

Me when trying to get a single volt goat horn and after causing their extinction

[@YilitiziYu]

Klei better pay up 3 Krampus Sacks for the 0.3425% no-drop rate you had to endure.

[@Alabar3000]

only 1 in 300 to kill 14 and get nothing lol about the same odds as killing 14 and getting TEN HORNS

[@semitadifficile]

I remember I killed nearly whole herd once as Walter and got zero horns, so probably it's not only Wes unluck

[@Grin_DST]

Walter mentioned!

[@Clown_the_Clown]

Waltuh

[@semitadifficile]

@@Grin_DST I just tried Walter rework in uncompromising mod, and Walter is still very bad

[@aidancode]

Similar but not nearly as bad thing happened to me about a week ago. Was playing adventure mode for the first time, killed 7 beefalo I think and didn't get a horn so I just figured it was RoG exclusive. Turns out I just got unlucky.

[@GaryTDA]

Literally did the same yesterday, killed 5 beefalos, 0 horns Same with hounds, killed 3 hounds, 0 teeth Ans guess F##### WHAT i got from 4 tentacles, 0 TENTACLE SPIKES OR SPOTS

[@loopuleasa]

For those needing it It was a 0.3% chance of it happening basically a one in a thousand map wide beefalo genocides goes like this

[@secretfbidoggo4610]

Maybe i read it wrong but the chance of killing 14 beefalos(atleast based on what i know about calculating probability, which i could be wrong on) is about 0,000018...%, since it would be 33% to the power of 14 then times 100 to get the probability.

[@patix1197]

It reminds me of a video I watched where a Russian speaker was also having a lot of bad luck with a gears. I think the video was called "История одной шестерёнки".

[@ActiveGreen227]

I remember this happened to me in og DS . In dst I just make a thermal stone and usually give the head gear to new players

[@hoangsonvu3762]

as a wendy main I always get at least 2 horn b4 I leave the last one alive

[@DVGMedia1]

you should know on my wendy run I ended up getting 2 gems in 3 tumble weeds. a purple and a blue.

[@hoangsonvu3762]

@@DVGMedia1 oh ya talking about tumble weeds do you feel like if you come to tumble weeds in the early days I do feel it gear spawn really high I dunno if it true or not but most of my new run always get around 5-10 gear if I farm there (wew food for beefalo)

[@hoangsonvu3762]

but after 15 days it start to drop lower

[@daviddavidsson6243]

I once failed a 50/50 9 times in a row (1/512)

[@Grin_DST]

i have a theory that every character has it own luck meter based on loot & lightning (wes being the lowest)

[@randomguythatlikeshorrorga9588]

"LET'S GO GAMBLING"

[@sanga1380]

This reminded me of Swanky’s Wendy beef boss rush. Bri murdered every single beefalo except the one he tamed I believe and still never got a horn.

[@TheCoachBarryIsDivine]

You play this game a lot how did you not get tired or burned out from this game you don’t feel the slight sense of boredom. I understand that your whole channel is based on this game but for some reason you find this super fun. lol

[@DVGMedia1]

not really lol I only play it once a week mostly for videos on the channel lol

[@Grin_DST]

this game can get boring (on solo) i took so many breaks from it and i only have 2000 hours

[@JMSginoclave]

While it is unlikely overall to not get 1 result over many 1/3 attempts, that's about it: overall. No matter how many times you fail, your following attempts don't "consider" your past failures (unless your game has such a "pity RNG" system): each instance is still by itself, only considering 2/3 odds to fail and 1/3 odds to succeed. In a small pool of attempts, 33% each isn't great odds. And RNGesus is unforgiving.

[@DVGMedia1]

Yeah the average probability should have at least given me 5 but it's not a guarantee lol This is the balance of the universe its balancing out my 2 gem finds in 3 tumbles from my wendy stream lol

[@Vro789]

How do you get the crafting to look like solo? Is it a mod or in settings?

[@DVGMedia1]

Its a mod called hybrid crafting menu It allows you to swap between the classic crafting menu and the new one.

[@embernodebeef]

there should be a new item, saw horn

[@kaziusosnowski9737]

It is not about you. It is more about Wes😂

[@ronanclark2129]

Beefalo horn is definitely a year 2 item 😂

[@lovkarts]

It just had to be Wes...

[@mathinho1237]

What is the rate on classic? Killed two and dropped one. Later got one in a chest in the caves.

[@DVGMedia1]

Should be the same

[@INeedANames]

0.34% chance :0

[@Alias0225]

The game is sentient

[@Dorumin]

Beefalo horns? I thought that was a 10% drop for some reason, but that sounds too low. Doubting myself now lol

[@donanilao7724]

So, assuming the odds are ~1/3 chance, and 14 Beefalo's didn't drop their horns, you had the unlucky odds of 1/3^14 or... 1/4,782,969 chance of that Beef-sh!t happening to you. I blame the Mime.

[@DVGMedia1]

That would be the odds if i got 14 horns in a row. since i failed to get it 14 times in a row it would be (2/3)^14

[@primalpeashooter]

How rare is getting 3 butters from butterflies in a row? because that happened to me once

[@jackflican6037]

getting butter from a butterfly is a 2% chance, but let's translate that to a in 50 chance, getting it twice in a row makes it a 1 in 2500 chance, getting it 3 times in a row is a 1 in 125000 chance, this translates to a 0,000008% chance

[@DVGMedia1]

My best luck was getting 3 gnomes in a tumbleweed

[@mettatonfanboy]

From where you're kneeling it must seem like an 18-carat run of bad luck Truth is...the game was rigged from the start

[@Manga_page]

Yo you didn't beat my record of 16 witch makes me sad because I've also had no tusk drop after 9 walruses

[@DVGMedia1]

Well I still got next stream lol I have still yet to get a horn. I've just ran out of beefalos

[@MikhailNijegorodsky]

Your chances doesn't increase after eash kill, it's still low, 1 in 3 as always, it doesn't stack like, you killed more than 3 beefalos, so your chances now is higher than 33%, it's still 33%. So that's why relying on gambling is a bad idea.

[@DVGMedia1]

Yep its the crazy instance of probabilities of this happening this many times lol

[@CaptainSnuggles-d7f]

Hi DVG how are you?

[@DVGMedia1]

doing what we can

[@CaptainSnuggles-d7f]

@ That’s nice looking forward to see you go live soon

[@gera4130]

This Is RoG right? Craft hud looking old

[@meepknight]

There's a skin and there's a balloon tab, it's likely the old DST hud

[@DVGMedia1]

I like the old crafting hud vs the new one so i have a mod that changes it.

[@gera4130]

@@DVGMedia1 Ye, I just reinstalled dst week ago and new hud was confusing

[@Kapa_ssm]

Are you having a problem with your voice? I'm saying this because I'm new here 🙂

[@DVGMedia1]

It's a stream recording my streams audio is not as clear as my video audios because I have my fans on cause it gets hot in my room plus I record streams audio through obs while I get videos through audacity

[@Kapa_ssm]

I do not mean that the character is a girl and I hear a boy’s voice ​@@DVGMedia1