Double Sixes Death Game

[@unlockingsnow73]

Everytime I play a board game I never can roll double sixes. But I bet ya as soon as my life’s on the line I instantly roll double sixes.

[@fetchstixRHD]

Sounds like my luck hahah

[@aeon1c555]

I'm The Opposite Of You Basically

[@vazirayuldasheva575]

Same thing here

[@illbeyourdreamcatcher]

That is so me,yea guys that's my luck

[@readifsussy7428]

* uses 420 sided dice *

[@MrInstantRamen]

They didn't say what kind of dice *Uses 120 sided dice*

[@michaeldavis9807]

'Still rolls double sixes' God Dammit!!

[@frenzzyleggs]

Uses 4 sided dice

[@pipodrankje]

*Uses 1 sided dice* oh wait...

[@frenzzyleggs]

An Otaku Also, technically it is still a 90% chance to lose

[@nitoyep3366]

Use a coin

[@CanadianOptionsTrader]

This game is not realistic at all. I don't even have a best friend.

[@CaesarElie]

Hmm think about that

[@heligon4674]

You don't need a friend tho

[@Oscar-im2xi]

This game is not realistic at all. I don’t even have a *best* friend.

[@aeon1c555]

I Was About To Reply R/Wooooosh

[@masterfish4343]

“ *SUSPEND REALITY* “

[@cardinal8200]

How dare you make me learn math by baiting me with luxuries like money and death

[@vesock1]

The luxury of death? Oof

[@ludipoint22]

well, compared to math...

[@twistedgwazi5727]

@@ludipoint22 No. Not really. But okay, if you think permanent darkness is better than the beauty of mathematics, than fine.

[@keyboardbandit]

can't afford to be dead mate

[@ferretappreciator]

GD MCB_Blazar the beauty lies in the lack of knowledge of life beyond death, or if there even is life beyond death, not the act of death itself. I personally think death is beautiful because it eventually comes for everyone indiscriminately. I take comfort in the fact that I’m not alone in my ignorance

[@Taikamuna]

But I still don't have a friend called Billy

[@antlion6169]

I dont have a friend.

[@Pehmizz]

Nyt loppu

[@jacobg8640]

SUSPEND REALITY

[@PhrontDoor]

You don't have a friend called Billy... any more.. (sniffles)... Poor Billy.

[@trod146]

@@alexphan8493 okay emo kid, settle down

[@unwaveringdiscipline5489]

It makes perfect sense if i walk out of a room with a mil i have over 90% to be robbed and murdered

[@miggle2784]

If Kevin is 200IQ, you are 201IQ

[@HideFromIt]

@@miggle2784 he has an IQ of 189

[@ducbadatcs]

SUSPEND REALITY

[@Programzo-sj3no]

But isn’t everyone getting 1mil dolls?

[@grahamisherwood4469]

@@Programzo-sj3no their all getting robbed

[@alexraiiiiiii]

Why do people keep on disliking his videos(s)? In my opinion his content is great, and I enjoy a great and well written brainteaser. Although he usually recycles ideas and theories coming from old mathematicians, that's actually the point, he wants to revive these amazing theories but he wants to do it in a unique and unboring fashion. I think Kevin's work is marvelous. Keep up the great work!

[@essorath5870]

fu***** Karen

[@aslamawan4594]

@@essorath5870 OK, 9-year-old math hater, but why are you even watching this?!?

[@jomillen5131]

@Fredrick Emad lol I know 1st graders who were sitting at the edge of the school gate and middle fingering anyone who passes while calling them F-ing b*stards

[@bruhhhhh2768]

Okay my problem with his content is that he is stating the obvious mathematics and using his voice and acting to make is more suspicious and interesting.

[@dippydoco2868]

@@bruhhhhh2768 Damn your really lacking in awareness huh. Just because something is obvious to one person, does not mean it's obvious and or is not interesting to others.

[@DankMatter]

There is another death game that involves 6. Russian roulette

[@milosminion]

@@okamizer0387 that- that's not a revolver... oh no....

[@timothyhilditch]

This guy uses like bots.

[@chaos_omega]

You could potentially play Russian roulette with a non-revolver by not looking while you load it (or having someone who is not playing load it) with all blanks... but one. Also have multiple magazines ready, loaded randomly, to simulate the cylinder spin between plays. But... this is to much work for a game where you could potentially die. Forget I said anything... Hah.

[@codyhanson1344]

Blanks can still kill you if you aim the gun close enough but having multiple magazines would still be a viable option, just have all of them empty except one. But yeah, too much work if you can get your hands on an actual revolver.

[@six2make4]

If you got a well oiled revolver and you let the drum roll to a stop by itself you should never be shot, simply due to the fact the weight of the bullet will make it so it's always at the bottom.

[@AA-100]

The only thing I'm debating here about Billy's perspective of the game is that the 90% probability is actually a conditional probability. That means it is the probability that you died *given* that you managed to play the game and was actually put in one of those rounds from Round 1 to Round n (where n is the last round where Double 6s were rolled). This eliminates all the posibilities that you were meant to be placed in a round higher than Round n, and thus not being able to play the game at all as the game had already ended. So in conclusion if you do choose to sign up to play this game, there is a very high chance (Practically 100% certainty) that you won't even get to play the game at all, as you will almost certainly be meant to be placed in a round from Round N to Round Infinity, as this game has infinite players

[@stickman4768]

Jeez

[@tomy3464]

The only problem with that is that your friend in this hypothetical knows that you did in fact play the game. Therefore, the condition has been met.

[@AA-100]

Yep, that is correct if the friend knows you played the game, and that's after the game has ended. But before the game starts, if you choose to sign up to play the game there is practically 100% chance you won't be one of those players in the game, as this game allows infinite players.

[@nothayley]

But that 2.8% probability is also conditioned on you actually participating in the game.

[@hizamianuar2272]

The 97.2% chance to survive is also conditioned on your playing the game. If it wasn't, you would have a 100% chance to survive. The core of the issue is that the friend assumes that the game always runs for exactly N rounds, and then you are randomly placed into the people of those rounds. In this case, you would have a 90% chance of being placed in the round where everybody dies. However, this is not an accurate reflection of the actual game - since you have a 97.2% chance of surviving, you only have a 2.8% chance of being placed into the round where everybody dies. This fault can be emphasized when you realize you can apply Bob's logic while the game is ongoing. In a given round you know that you have a 97.2% chance of surviving. However, you also know that by the end of the game, 90% of the people playing will be dead, which suggests only a 10% chance of surviving, which is clearly incorrect.

[@TheFoolishSamurai]

Moral of the Story: Bring weighted dice.

[@JorgetePanete]

to *d i e i n s t a n t l y*

[@shinsha_]

@@JorgetePanete HAHA

[@Beessoup]

and save everyone if you get there soon enough

[@KnekoKcat]

This went from cheating, to suicide, to sacrifice real quick.

[@memesthemaker8429]

@@KnekoKcat Y a Y

[@lawrencecalablaster568]

That crystal skull is Billy, isn't it, Kevin?

[@yolo-sy6zl]

Oh dear god. Hamlet!!!

[@aikslf]

Billy is the one who was dead all along...

[@trod146]

@8R4ND0N 3LL1077 CRU23L1 what?

[@threecheeseburrito]

@8R4ND0N 3LL1077 CRU23L1 Meh... Have you read the Midnight Crew webcomic? The main characters are kind of named after those sort of things like Boxcar. Or is it a different webcomic? I dunno.

[@yugal.prakash]

Poor Billy *R.I.P. in Peace*

[@EJAG404]

Plot Twist: The inflation from everyone on Earth winning a million dollars makes my money worthless.

[@marklonergan3898]

Plot twist from your future. None of us can go anywhere to spend it even if it was worth something! 😁

[@dumpeeplarfunny]

Democrats: "Um, 'inflation'? What's that?"

[@dumpeeplarfunny]

@@frikker4704 The classic "shame someone for mentioning politics because it's never relevant even in economics" tactic.

[@jamesleviathan8865]

Secondary plot twist, the game goes on for a lot of rounds and half the world dies plunging the world into chaos

[@clarinetcat32]

@@jamesleviathan8865 Thanos has entered the chat

[@PeepsMichael]

If I were in that room with my best friend Billy, I would purposely roll 2 6’s because he outbid me on that $100 auction.

[@matthewtabor3375]

Billy is more like a frenemy.

[@Goldy01]

I got that reference!

[@billythe11thdimensionalhobo]

thanks for telling me how you would treet .

[@CallieSqueakz]

No-one likes Billy.

[@jorandebraekeleer7557]

focking Billy

[@lawrencecalablaster568]

Death by Boxcars at Midnight sounds like a good pulp crime novel.

[@Paulog2003]

@@stevenation4249 yessssss

[@digdug4451]

@@stevenation4249 it does. Sounds like old P!ATD.

[@thalassous]

Death by Boxcars Midnight is a sick band name.

[@thespicemelange.1]

Coincidentally, that's the name of my first band....

[@teraflonik]

Your perspective is based on you lose/you win. Billys perspective is based on the fact that someone already lost

[@infinite7815]

No its dumb billies perspective is there is a 90% chance you were in the last group. Whether they roll sixes or not. It makes no sense

[@kenshinhimura9406]

​@@infinite7815 The last round is the one that involves rolling double sixes, regardless of how many rounds were played. Now, let's assume that the game lasted 5 rounds, though the number of rounds is irrelevant; this can be proven with any number of rounds. First, we're going to calculate how many total people played. Round 1 had 1 player. Round 2 had 10 players(1*10=10). Round 3 had 100 players(1*10*10=100). Round 4 had 1,000 players(1*10*10*10=1,000). And lastly, round 5 had 10,000 players(1*10*10*10*10=10,000). That brings our total to 11,111 players(10,000+1,000+100+10+1=11,111). Next, we're going to calculate the percentage of players that made up the final round. Percentage is the partial amount (the number of players in the final round), divided by the total amount(the total number of players), and then multiplied by 100. As we saw above, the number of players in the final round was 10,000. If we divide that by the total number of players(11,111) then we get a quotient of 0.900009. Multiplied by 100, we get a percentage of 90.0009%. This means that there is in fact a 90% chance that you were in the final group.

[@infinite7815]

@@kenshinhimura9406 you literally repeated what i said minus the fact i didnt realize the game went on infinitely until 6's were rolled.

[@kenshinhimura9406]

@@infinite7815 ah my mistake, I misunderstood your comment then. I meant no insult.

[@infinite7815]

@@kenshinhimura9406 no problem at all! didn't feel insulted was just confused hehe

[@colinkavanagh2291]

1 million dollars would mean nothing after all the inflation.

[@LegDayLas]

a game that requires more people then we have on earth, in which every single person gets 1million dollars. What could go wrong? I certainly don't see how inflation could be a factor in this ;D

[@yopedip4048]

r/whooooosh

[@Andoxico]

considering the population is infinite, 1 million people getting $1,000,000 is negligible

[@ThrottleKitty]

What is with the sudden trend of people doing some form of "woosh" in a completely incorrect context? Do people just not realize it's suppose to reference when someone doesn't get a joke? Or is doing it out of context part of the joke? I'm betting on the former.

[@AugerHybrid]

Inflation is the key for everything.

[@hastley64]

"How does this makes sense?" "SUSPEND REALITY"

[@DanTheStripe]

It's a Vsauce video, you probably should have made that assumption from the start.

[@TommoCarroll]

Haha - whenever I’m making no sense in a conversation I’m now just going to say “SUSPEND REALITY, THEN IT WILL ALL MAKE SENSE” and just walk away. Sorted.

[@OnSpray]

kevin: SUSPEND REALITY also kevin: in the double dice game, reality doesn’t change

[@StopChangingUsernamesYouTube]

"Hey bro, I just played this sick dice game!" "Ehhhhh. You're probably dead."

[@pielson8151]

underrated comment xdd

[@A7x_Forever]

His bro be like: "I just played THAT dice game" "Wait you mean.. THAT dice game?" "Yup" ... "Exorcizamus te, omnis immundus spiritus, omnis satanica potestas, omnis incursio infernalis adversarii, omnis legio, omnis congregatio et secta Diabolica. Ergo Draco maledicte, ecclesiam tuam secura facias libertate servire. Te rogamus, audi nos."

[@billybull7419]

Uh ki

[@seanquinn4785]

300th like nice

[@scarface51393]

Naniii?!

[@LyricWulf]

1:55 I think you mean permutations, since the order matters. eg you count 1 then 3 as a separate case from 3 then 1. "Combination" would mean that 1 then 3 is the same as 3 then 1 so you wouldn't count it twice.

[@pipebombmailer]

NERD

[@lukejohnson29]

Hey Lyric! What’s up?

[@user-nx6wi6eh9v]

I think he did it for the people that didn't know the difference between permutations and combinations, while it is scientifically accurate to say permutations it would confuse the people that do not know what that is, and for the rest of us we can understand what he meant pretty clearly. This is just my opinion, if you have a different one please lmk.

[@thehotdogman9317]

He makes this same mistake in other videos as well

[@thehotdogman9317]

@@user-nx6wi6eh9v It's better to use the right word so people can learn it, then avoid it for something simpler and dumb down the point of matter. More concise words means more accuracy and and a more educated audience.

[@PL9050]

"Okay roll the dice." "Hehe, little do you know, I have a dexterity +5!" *rolls double sixes, but the dice magically reroll into a seventeen* "What the!?"

[@shadowflame492]

YES! someone who knows about DnD!!!!!!!!!!!

[@PL9050]

Ethan Fung i was reading the essentials kit just now! (=

[@aurorabyrd6104]

Yeah, but you still rolled double sixes. Roll for a new character bud.

[@arcanev4]

20 sided dice

[@lesgoshooping6695]

@@shadowflame492 well yes but actually no. I play DnD but there are many other games with similar rules

[@reax5526]

Man, i wish the other vsauce boys were as active as you...

[@davidwallace7543]

Reax Jake takes suuuper long with his videos and he explained why they take so long. Michael does the same, buuut he also deals with his other shows and stuff.

[@mountzera]

well, I think thats why the other vsauce boys posts so much better videos than Kevin

[@necromoni]

check DONG they've been active on there

[@Zotemann]

Mount better yeah, but Kevin’s videos are also interesting - i like all three a lot

[@necromoni]

Jake (vsause3) has also been making a movie the past 5 months releasing the 10th this month

[@DavidBennell]

Hyperinflation awaits the winners though

[@Destructocorps]

Not if a winner convinces the other winners to play another death game against each other.

[@lsoldeMaduschen]

just exchange your dollars for something else like euro

[@Andeloine_is_not_a_communist]

Solution: Communism

[@nexusxe]

@@Andeloine_is_not_a_communist communism is always the solution

[@Andeloine_is_not_a_communist]

Agreed

[@SJLWorld]

Mr beast should do this, if someone rolls a pair of dice and doesn't get a pair they get 10 dollars and they can throw again for more money but if they roll doubles they don't get any of the money.

[@KalemStLouis]

DeltaSJL 10 dollars....? You get doubles 1/6 of the time

[@SJLWorld]

@@KalemStLouis well that's why I said 10 dollars and not 100 lol

[@thomasknight604]

There are doubling down and doubling up strategies in gambling that mimic this. They are called martingale and anti-martingale strategies. They tr to take advantage of the latter 90% bet that he discussed, but with a 2:1 leverage instead of 10:1. They also always inevitably fail in the presence of edge without a high % payout scenario.

[@adam121312able]

Idk man sounds pretty stale to me I say we up the wager and you stabbed could be fatal might be flesh wound hart to tell just a good thrust..for the content I cant wait

[@bukanmatin5973]

1 dollar, so that mr beast would actually do it.

[@robmemeoverlord6399]

This gives *die* a whole different meaning.

[@zimbobwe]

Underrated comment

[@limespar]

oh

[@workhardism]

Nice! 👍

[@zerkalae]

i literally died lmao

[@vc_whatever]

Good one, mate

[@CUZZZZZZZskalzzz]

Can you upload a tutorial on how to play *without* a best-friend named billy?

[@poachedpenguin8170]

sorry, billy is mandatory

[@benrosen5917]

But that's impossible. You need a friend named Billy. Not a random stranger named Billy. Not a friend named David. A FRIEND named BILLY.

[@shadygaming6523]

hi, 3 months later and you still win the intertent

[@heydannypark]

In MY minds game, MY friend is either a past-his-prime comic named Andrew Clay, and/or an ill-tempered goat named William. William has consumed Andrew, fully, on more than 2.7 occasions. Okay, 3. It was three occasions.

[@SKyrim190]

One thing is the probability you will survive the game, given that you are going to play it versus The other thing is the probability you have survived the game, given that it has ended and you participated in it You are answering two different probabilities, that's how they are different!

[@georgeevans9044]

Excellent summary!

[@subscribefornothing6045]

Kevin you are the only one keeping vsauce alive

[@crediblesalamander8056]

Jake is releasing a super long video on october 10th

[@jared8]

Mhd. Yousef Attar when’d micheal gonna upload

[@CraftyF0X]

Yes and he does a great job. Im quite pleased with the direction he took lately.

[@comicstrider4851]

Well, there's still D.O.N.G

[@SirTatManTat]

Dude you gotta get into the D.O.N.G, there's always things to Do Online Now Guys.

[@Lewex]

But how much does "surviving", weigh?

[@Rock-ck7ms]

About $1,000,000.

[@foxymetroid]

About 2 lbs.

[@darealpoopster]

Lewex You’d probably win about 25 rounds, then there would be around a half chance of dying. So 25 million dollars

[@pipodrankje]

Somewhere around 4 m²

[@TommoCarroll]

“But how much does weigh weigh?”

[@charliege]

Well, from my DND experience, I'm safe. The real danger is if I had to roll double ones.

[@wall_lizard]

Rip

[@0subscriberschallenge308]

Hmm... playing this game is a tough call because I hate rolling dice but I do wish to die instantly.

[@llkurofoxll1013]

Same

[@zacozacoify]

Don’t worry, you could just volunteer to be in the group of participants. Only one out of each group has to roll.

[@_catzee]

oOf

[@skibur848]

0 Subscribers ,

[@chrishansen8201]

KSAUCE, VEVIN HERE *wait*

[@Hydrastic-bz5qm]

Msauce, Vichael here

[@lorriemulligan3047]

Jsause, Vake here

[@jarek5443]

AtupidSauce, Sll of you here

[@Hydrastic-bz5qm]

@@jarek5443 Asauce, Stupidall of you here*

[@Oscar-im2xi]

r/wooosh?

[@alextle06]

Kevin: Plays this game and keeps winning. Inflation: Allow me to introduce myself.

[@isaz2425]

if the population is infinite, then, just a few billions people earning millions of dollar won't change anything.

[@lucabaldassi6024]

I would play, it's a win-win situation anyway

[@paulgoogol2652]

and you can have a little fun before you go.

[@simonsmashup]

I can see sadness in your words. lol

[@Th2WolF]

Dark

[@HamHamHampster]

On the bright side, with that much millions flowing around, the currency will be worth less than toilet papers.

[@DarthSmirnoff]

I learned about Combinatorial Probability while researching how many runs of Stratholme it would take me on average to get Rivendare's Deathcharger in World Of Warcraft.

[@matthewtabor3375]

~125 Strat runs. That was a sweet mount.

[@MrSaucyBeans]

And how many? Was it 125?

[@LnPPersonified]

Oh wow, this is a well timed comment. I literally just reinstalled WoW a couple nights ago to play BfA.

[@jpedrosc98]

I actually got it on my first try and pissed my friend who had already played it dozens of times

[@fbomb7117]

@hawks Plus Seb Dude lmao what did it come out to,you ever get one? I got one once xd.

[@SatisfyingWhirlpools]

You also have a very good chance you won’t get to play in the first place

[@brennanperry8001]

Me: *rolls 1 and 1* Person: ok, sir, collect your mil- Me: *flips both dice to six side* Person: sir-SIR!

[@isaacbeitzel2586]

Rolls double six first round... Aka my luck

[@crazichickify]

It took me 92 times to roll double sixes

[@gangmemberjerem5381]

Ayyy u good at monopoly that's a thing

[@t.m.w.a.s.6809]

The true reason why the probability seems different is because you’re measuring two different things. The high likely hood of not dying from your perspective is the measure of how likely it is for your one role to go double 6’s, but the 90% chance of you being killed by the perspective of the friend is measuring how likely it is that you’re the one in the larger population of the players, and this probability difference is also largely arising from the lack of information the friend has, not knowing which group you were in when the game has ended.

[@furaosentu]

"You might think that the game could be played for 18 rounds, before there was a 50/50 chance of rolling doubles sixes..." well, no, and there's also not a 50/50 chance of me rolling double sixes after not having rolled doubles sixes 25 times (although that's not what you said, it is implied by proposing the premise there might be a 50/50 chance of rolling double sixes after not having rolled double sixes 18 times), because past events don't influence the chance of future events. Wording is important, as it has the potential of misleading people into believing faulty assumptions. The probability of rolling double sixes on the 26th roll is 2.7% and it has been 2.7% each of the 25 times before. The 50% is the probability of having rolled a double six after (!) having rolled 25 times. The key here, is that it is not predictive, but merely descriptive. You could ask "What is the probability of me rolling a double six if I roll 25 times?" and the answer would be 50%. But if you ask "I have rolled 25 times and never rolled a double six. What is the probability of me rolling a double six on the 26th roll?", then the answer would be 2.7%. Disclaimer: I didn't check the probabilities. I just believed your math about those would be correct. It's just the interpretation that bugs me.

[@aiksi5605]

Shame that this is such an underrated comment

[@ubiquity60441]

I totally agree with this. It really bugged me watching this and knowing he was misrepresenting the logic. This is very similar to a birthday problem/paradox.

[@KrenthKh]

THANK YOU!

[@JivanPal]

The first concept you touch on is called the "gambler's fallacy", because it is common for people to fallaciously think that, e.g. after flipping a coin and it landing on heads, it is more likely that the next flip will result in tails, and for gamblers to make bad decisions based on this false assumption. The concept that the video attempts to describe, and which you clarify, is described by the so-called "geometric probability distribution".

[@ringozeitgeist]

The increased odds come from the increased number of players, and your life is on the line with each person’s roll.

[@nhatphuinh5043]

I still wonder where the hell that Billy guy is, like, he went from 100$ dollars to death dices, like dude had good decision

[@ciamekityle294]

Plot twist: First person rolls double six.

[@Graham226]

Game Casualty count:1

[@cjfdnqkn4374]

But that's still possible

[@PavelJanata]

All I see is a huge inflation problem

[@Andeloine_is_not_a_communist]

Fix it with Communism.

[@Andeloine_is_not_a_communist]

We just send people like you to Gulag, that fixes everything.

[@Andeloine_is_not_a_communist]

You can't steal grain if there's no food.

[@onefortysix6955]

found the monetarist

[@Rin-qj7zt]

You see an inflation problem. I see an extinction event

[@titanspirit7238]

Hey you wanna play the dice death game? Nah, I'm gonna play some video games instead and chill. You have fun though...

[@darkmario720]

No one plays dungeon dice monsters

[@TommoCarroll]

“Is this why I have no friends...😢...”

[@TommoCarroll]

“Is this why I have no friends...😢...”

[@WilliamSkafast]

Meh, as long as it's painless I'd do it for $1 billion.

[@cathy-pz2to]

But you will get $1billion dollars!😆

[@rauldigpal3750]

I don't get it either way I win . . .

[@Naijiri.]

deep

[@goldenbasil]

Saame

[@stuff2328]

mood

[@Logan-dc1fv]

Lmaooo

[@acanatasya6076]

@@stuff2328 yvbj jkjn

[@93lozfan]

gambler's paradox: previous outcomes don't affect later outcomes. each group has a 97.2% chance of success.

[@chevaldarsaut3770]

You're right but irrelevant

[@stxnw]

Cheval Darsaut it isnt irrelevant

[@ExelsioHD]

That is what i thought the gamblers fallicy applies here

[@gakzor]

@@stxnw It is only relevant to you, but not to your friend Billy. You are looking at the current round only, your friend Billy is looking at the entire game as a whole. That's the crux of the riddle - it is why your chance of success is 97.2%, but to Billy you have a 90% chance of being dead.

[@annadoesroblox6205]

Yes but the game will end at some point, and the final group makes up ~90% of the people

[@masterschwarz3258]

So after watching this video, I went to my room, took 2 dices and rolled 6&6 at the first attempt... After pretending to be dying for a while - I am now here writing this comment. Have a good day everybody ;)

[@zungnguyen5300]

nice

[@Th2WolF]

Lul

[@LegDayLas]

you are prob trolling.... but you inspired me to try, and I just rolled 2 sixes.... RIP

[@disabledspoon942]

r/thathappned

[@OriginalCatfish42]

Jesus clearly needs you up there

[@larryblumerjr]

It's not really the perspective that creates the difference in the probability of survival, it's about events and information. The "Billy" perspective is at the conclusion of the game after the double sixes were rolled, while your perspective is before the rolling of the double sixes. The rolling of the double sixes is a new event which lowers the probability of survival for all players in the game when averaged out. You also have possible knowledge of surviving your round, which keeps survivability percentage at a fixed 35/36 from your "perspective". The Billy perspective can be unified with your perspective by restating as follows: A double six has just been rolled. You are blindfolded and do not know if you are in the room at the time. What is your probability of survival? It's 10%.

[@Ethanerd]

Wow, I'm early. Better make a joke. . . Micheal posting a video to Vsauce

[@Ethanerd]

luka subari same. . . same ;(

[@1foru2forme84]

Ethanerd What’s he doing nowadays?

[@zapattack1138]

@@1foru2forme84 DONG

[@Zotemann]

Se7en D3ys and a Show on YT behind a paywall

[@TommoCarroll]

Oh snap, this was a genius move 😅

[@amalreji7389]

Isn't this just because "Billy" has less information than you? He does not know which round you played in, so his calculations must be based on the entire game including billions of people even if you were only one of 10 people playing in a round. Hope that makes sense :)

[@VollderFred]

If he knows you DID play and he knows the game is over, it doesn't mater how many rounds were played. After the game ends in any round, around 90% of people that played, died. Since he doesn't know in which round you where in, he just hast to hope you were in the first 10%.

[@matthewtabor3375]

It's not so much that he has less information, it's that he has different information because the game is already complete.

[@tomheyworth6020]

It's actually because he has more information. He knows you played.

[@LegDayLas]

VollderFred, not true. It does matter what round the game ends in. If he knows the game ended round 1, then he knows you are 100% dead ;)

[@douglaspantz]

No, it’s because he assumes that you will actually be chosen to roll. About an infinite amount of people wont be chosen.

[@grimmyhits3481]

This is a message for every person trying to hit double sixes on monopoly.

[@Lonely.Chrome]

*_Suspend Reality_* Don't worry, I've done it all my life.

[@Th2WolF]

Made me laugh. Thanks

[@pvic6959]

im gonna have to reject your reality and substitute my own

[@gavrolux532]

:)

[@Johnny_Shields]

My friend refuses to believe in combinatorial probability no matter how many times I explain it.

[@biohazard724]

Does he believe in dice gnomes?

[@ani_n01]

@@Zombiesbum you're contradicting yourself. If chances for getting to n round are low that would mean chances for hitting double 6 are somewhat significant.

[@Bartonovich52]

The dice have no memory. It’s 1/36 every time you roll. It’s possible to roll double sixes every time, or none at all... ever. It won’t ever attempt to “right” statistical anomalies.

[@YouNoob93]

@Sharon is there: No, because the probability to get to round 94783 without rolling double 6 is miniscule, but the dice don't know if you are on round 1 or whatever, still 1/36 chance for any given roll

[@Thunterise]

Just explain that if you roll a dice 5 times without getting a 6, then according to their logic, the 6th roll guarantees a 6. That makes them realize that this isn't how it actually works.

[@Wyattporter]

I can really imagine a Black Mirror-style future where they grow mass amounts of people in test tubes and force them to play 66DG - Double Sixes Death Game.

[@TheRABIDdude]

Why. There's no reason to do that. Each Black Mirror narrative is based on a technology which would supposedly improve the world but actually creates a dystopia.

[@stuff2328]

@@TheRABIDdude *overpopulation*

[@TheRABIDdude]

Joshadow OP said growing people in test tubes specifically for it. That aside, you still wouldn't use this to tackle overpopulation because the number of people killed varies massively due to chance alone. You would most likely extinctify the human race in just one game.

[@stuff2328]

@@TheRABIDdude no because no matter what a small chance survives

[@TheRABIDdude]

Joshadow Yeah but overpopulation is a simple numbers problem. Say you have 12 billion people on a planet which can only sustain 9 billion. You obviously need to kill 3 billion. So why use a game which randomly chooses anywhere between a few thousand and hundreds of billions of victims.

[@Artificial-Insanity]

There's no contradiction here, you're calculating your odds of survival going into the game, Billy is calculating your odds of dying coming out of the game. Those are two fundamentally different questions. Similar problem: let's say your odds of winning the lottery are about 1 in 15 million. Billy knows you play every week and hears that there has been a winner but your country only has 10 million inhabitants and let's say half of them play. So he calculates that the odds that YOU are the winner are 1 in 5 million.

[@chevaldarsaut3770]

Finally someone said it right

[@RipleySawzen]

You're correct that there's no contradiction here, but you're wrong that you, as the player of the game, have the correct perspective. Going into the game, you have a 90% chance of being placed into the final round. You never actually have a 98% chance of living. It's because they got infinity involved that this happens. Basically, going into the game you have to look at the results of the game, making Billy correct.

[@JonoSSD]

It gets easier to understand once you realize these percentages are from different groups. One has to do with the dice, the other with the total number of players. Great video, btw, I love these math problems.

[@douglasskinner6348]

Can't wait to use this as D&D challenge. Thanks for the inspiration, Kevin.

[@TheRABIDdude]

Douglas Skinner Lemme know how you intend to turn this into a challenge! Sounds cool!

[@discoHR]

It's always "Kevin here". When will it be "Michael here"? Got nothing against Kevin, just haven't seen Michael's beard for a long time.

[@onlookerofthings6029]

Probably became that crystal skull while making this video

[@steveh1474]

i always preferred "Vsauce! I'm Jake."

[@Andeloine_is_not_a_communist]

You see, that's where the trouble began. That beard... That damned beard...

[@maracachucho8701]

We see his DONG every once in a while, though.

[@frama1122]

Knowing him, he probably trimmed it and doesnt want to make a video till it grows back

[@XWurstbrotX]

If you die instantly, it is kind of a win-win situation :)

[@aysetetik730]

How?????

[@squiddles1678]

How?

[@jellotree1463]

Ayse Tetik @Squiddles because if you win then you get a million dollars, but if you lose you’ll never know because you instantly cease to exist

[@fridareminisx]

welp,ppl missed the jokes lol

[@jtteope1178]

Plot twist/ the first person immediately lands a double six and dies

[@gabe7630]

jokes on you i dont have friends

[@colem.8914]

gabe you are not alone, wait...

[@hithere4289]

gabe same here let's be friends for that lol

[@norap.4657]

All around me are familiar faces...

[@TommyTom21]

r/wooosh

[@ixalaz4536]

Same.

[@paedors6739]

I might be understanding incorrectly, but this feels like a false paradox. (I know all paradoxes are false, but this one especially.) You and your friend are starting from fundamentally different premises. You know that you'll be participating in a random round. Since everyone in a given round has a 97% chance of living, you know that you have a 97% chance of winning. Your friend, on the other hand, only knows that you were a random participant. That's really different from knowing that you were in a random round, since there are many more people in the last round than in every other round, and you're most likely to be a participant from the last round. If you only knew that you were a random participant in the overall game, you would come to the same conclusion as your friend. So I think the paradox is really just two completely separate problems, stated in a similar way. They're about the same situation, but it's definitely not surprising that you end up with different probabilities. The only confusing part seems to be the problem statement.

[@randomnobody660]

Easy fix: everybody potentially participating is drugged asleep. It is revealed to you afterwards that you participated. That way, neither you nor your friend know anything the other does not. Also not every paradox are "false". "This is a lie" literally can't be true nor false. Some paradox points to a flawed axiom.

[@nordicgodofbakedbean8501]

Best friend I have never had one of those

[@nathansmith3608]

This reminds me of the "doomsday argument" in that it basically hinges on assuming reality's equivalent to an intentionally awkward & inconsistent description of things

[@Johnny-ju6di]

I’d play the game to hopefully get that 2.8%

[@williamhenley8593]

I love death jokes

[@fightingfights5503]

@@williamhenley8593 They never get old

[@sebbe9216]

FightingFights neither will I, hopefully

[@xXmahriXx]

been on a streak of 4 or so videos from this dude and man I do feel close to billy, he such a nice guy

[@Manudyne]

The probability that I love Vsauce2 is 100%. Or is it?

[@lutyanoalves444]

But what is Love?

[@lsoldeMaduschen]

maybe, maybe not

[@marcoalfonsi6998]

@@lutyanoalves444 and how much does it weight... *music starts*

[@Weatherboy1]

monopoly has taught me to roll double 6s all the time so id be the reason of genocide

[@nobodylol3345]

"You might think that after 18 rounds, there will be a 50/50 chance of rolling double sixes, right?" Vsauce2: *"Well yes, but actually no"*

[@aegg792]

I was expecting " *WRONG* "

[@aFREEsportsbettingSYSTEM]

yet you'd think that if it was 50-50 at 27 that you could split thousands of throws into groups of fifty-four and there would be one 6-6 in either half of each group more often than not. Yes, but no. It's just the way our minds try to comprehend things and simplify complex mathematical principles.

[@Dybbukkk]

*Where is Michael?*

[@brettgibson7962]

He tried the game and failed.

[@comicstrider4851]

Probably that crystal skull

[@comicstrider4851]

@Chuck The Aviator, sometimes fam

[@RobertoWhyyoucare]

Creating a video. I believe he said that the video he is working on is an hour long.

[@ApsaraMenaka]

Not here.

[@FallenShadowNinja]

I've been reading a manga lately called Liar Game that features people playing a bunch of these sorts of games that Kevin has been covering lately. It's get psychological/cat-and-mouse-game kind of series if anyone really likes these sorts of games and wants to see more.

[@PratameshMistry]

Also 'no game no life' manga n anime is awosum...

[@roseturck3468]

That ending though...

[@daviddecsi4962]

You should check out Kaiji as well. Same game theory like scenarios and is awesome

[@user-ij8qq7xx4e]

Me: How hard could this be? A high chance to survi- *Gets double sixes*

[@NemJani]

*I LIKE KEVIN'S CONTENT THE MOST, BECAUSE HE DOESN'T NEGLECT HIS MAIN CHANEL LIKE MICHAEL DOES.* P.s.: Jake puts tons of effort into each vid, so I'm not ripping him for irregular uploads.

[@petermarsh4578]

you can say the same for VSauce 1

[@NemJani]

@@petermarsh4578 Say what? Putting effort into videos? He used to do that, but he literally does not upload on VSauce anymore.

[@petermarsh4578]

I'd argue that he puts way more effort than he used to, hence why they take so long. Consider the most recent ones, which are mostly over 20 minutes each, and excellently written, shot and edited. They take a lot of care! Although saying that I realise it has been almost a year since his last upload that wasn't mind field...

[@NemJani]

@@petermarsh4578 This is the thing though: They don't take long to make. They certainly would take long, but he doesn't make them. Not anymore. He uploads on DONG quite frequently, so he does have time to make videos. He just decided not to upload on VSauce.

[@jordanr.2120]

Billy needs to find a new hobby besides challenging me to all these games.

[@thorondor5465]

If I am one of 10000 group and if any other in my group rolls double sixes and whole group dies? Did I miss something? Then noone has perspective of surviving by 97.2% chance.

[@Derekloffin]

He didn't explain the conditions that well. Each group only rolls once for the whole group. So the first person rolls for themselves only. The 10 person group rolls just once for all 10 people. The 100 person group again rolls just once for all 100 people. And on and on. So regardless of which group you're in, you are in effect just rolling for yourself even though the rest of your group is affected by the same roll. The reason you get this weird difference is the friend KNOWS the game ended, which is added information in the problem that you as a roller don't have. All you know is all previous groups succeeded but those are independent trials so have no affect on your probability. While it doesn't seem like it should make that big a difference it does.

[@alexvaldivia1855]

The only vsauce that uploads consistently

[@rain-nu6tp]

If there is infinite humans isn't the chance of even entering the room is 0%?

[@althealligator1467]

That sentence made no sense and he said the room could hold infinite people.

[@chevaldarsaut3770]

yes you're right. But it doesn't change anything. Just say you do know you will play

[@rain-nu6tp]

@@althealligator1467 wouldn't a double sixes have been rolled before the number reaches infinity

[@althealligator1467]

@@rain-nu6tp yeah of course it would, the 'number' cannot ever reach infinity, so it will happen before that. But the room can hold infinite people.

[@tech-kyle]

@Christopher I would think so, yes. If the population is infinite and the game eventually stops, it seems the chance of you getting to play at all is zero. I think that's why Kevin says "If your friend hears that you played this game.." at 3:59 meaning you definitely were one of the participants before it ended. I think it's more fair and clear to say "This game kills ~90% of all players"

[@Iluzjonistay]

Its not a matter of changing perspective but a logical mistake in your reasoning. You have only 2,8% chances of rolling double sixes, but the game doesnt end there since other people that you are in room with are rolling. Here is your mistake that makes you think its a matter of perspective ;)

[@cheiften98]

i wanna play, its a win win. either a million or i get to die.

[@MRanzmo]

*ohboy this game seems fun, where do i sign up for getting killed?*

[@azuarc]

The problem with Billy's argument, of course, is that the game gets played to completion.

[@Enaronia]

That's actually part of the information in Billy's math.

[@Lonely.Chrome]

I skipped math class for this. It was totally worth it.

[@Ethanerd]

5:34 Anyone else think he was going to roll two 6's?

[@JorgetePanete]

Did anyone else think*

[@Ethanerd]

Jorge C. M. The did was implied because I was using a casual way of speaking.

[@ferdichristianhiphop]

This guy is teaching me more math in a 6 minute videos than my math teacher in a year

[@Evarq_]

I would cheat.. by putting it at double sixes so I die instantly

[@RobinVesper]

Excuse me but why are you eliminating the combinations of pips as the rounds continue ?

[@parallaxwr5724]

bold of you to assume I have a friend that cares about me

[@ThePuppyTurtle]

The player goes into the game with more information than the observer. The player knows no group before him died, and would be committing the gambler's fallacy if he thought the chances before his own mattered to him. The observer, as you describe him, doesn't know anything about when the game terminated.

[@chevaldarsaut3770]

He stills know "no group before his friend went in died". Doesn't change anything

[@AvalonisHere]

@@chevaldarsaut3770 He doesn't know that at all, and things would be quite different of he did.

[@chevaldarsaut3770]

Yes he does know that. Otherwise his friend wouldn't have go in

[@AvalonisHere]

@@chevaldarsaut3770 You misunderstand. He knows that his friend played the game; that means he was either in the group that died or one of the groups before that, and it's more likely he was in the deadly group.

[@xoromgb3477]

Me: *buys triangle dices that have 5 sides* Also me: I am inevitable

[@nathanspeidel9195]

This is a bit deceiving. The information used to calculate these probabilities is not the same. It has nothing to do with “perspective“. He’s literally using different information in each scenario, so, of course, the probabilities will differ. Your “friend” has the additional information of knowing that you played. YOU cannot have this information. The only way to guarantee that you play the game, is to go in the very first round. The information of which round you play in has to be accounted for. It’s nonsensical to retroactively choose a round to play. If there were some fixed system for choosing the round in which you play, then the probabilities would be calculated the same.

[@danlister1084]

I rolled a Vsauce on my dice too.

[@djad4118]

Listen this whole video is totally incorrect, as a DnD player for quite a few years now I can say with absolute certainty that the dice gods decide how dice land at all times, I PROMISE that if I was the first person to roll those dice it would be the end of the game. Never. Lucky.

[@TheLampl1ghter]

I feel like you're grossly ignoring the fact that you can always chant for five hours and sacrifice your firstborn child alongside a virgin to maybe sometimes get a better result.

[@shadycactus6146]

hey at least you'd do 12 damage

[@gadoliumnitrogen7149]

@@TheLampl1ghter lmao i cant

[@UltraDucc]

actually, no if billy knows you already participated then yes, but you most likely havent participated yet, considering there are infibite people, if billy knows the game is over then billy knows that you most likely never participated

[@awildfilingcabinet6239]

But if billions of people are winning 1 million, that would deflate the value very quickly...

[@commoncoolchannel8588]

SUSPEND REALITY

[@teodorikcaratangracin9581]

Yes but if the one of the first ones lose the game then only a few people have a million

[@jennierusso96]

Rip economy

[@Somerandom1922]

Ha! Jokes on you... I don't have any friends... Oh wait

[@cattythegamer8283]

What?

[@ctrlaltdelete1051]

@@cattythegamer8283 r/woooooooosh

[@zilvarro5766]

Its not as much a matter of inside vs. outside perspective but actually just whether we have the knowledge that the game has already concluded. If I asked Billie before going into the game, we would agree on the 35/36 survival probability. Conversely, if they rolled the dice first until double sixes, made a ticket for every person that would have participated, and then offered me random ticket (and its associated result), I would agree on the 90% death chance.

[@glca7ie]

"And may the odds be ever in your favor"

[@onifps]

Just don't roll a six lol

[@321rafwaf123]

Xen0n LOL

[@Andeloine_is_not_a_communist]

*Suicide rate drops to 0%*

[@darealpoopster]

Andeloine Drops to -3%

[@gavrolux532]

Chances

[@kristinemartinsone4406]

I dont get why we increased people 10 times every round.

[@theprofessionalfence-sitter]

I'm not sure this analysis is correct: You are assuming that you have an infinite supply of humans and that you, the player, are randomly assigned to some round of the game in such a way that the probability you played in any particular round, given the game ended and you've played, is proportional to the number of players in that round. Aren't you thereby implicitly assuming a uniform probability distribution on the natural numbers, which does not exist? If you were instead to assume there is a finite number of humans, and therefore you could uniformly distribute them onto the rounds, and the game ends if either double sixes are rolled or everyone has played once, the probability that you have died given that you have played would be, if I didn't make a mistake in my calculations, 1/36 rather than 90%, as expected, no matter how many humans you have. (In case you want to calculate it yourself, you are looking for the probability P(X=Y|X

[@spdazero]

This is actually correct. The paradox is basically playing with infinity. Once the human population is fixed, you can calculate the exact probability of surviving given you entered the room, which is 35/36. The 10% is calculated based on infinite/infinite, which does not give a result. Like someone saying the number of even numbers is 1/2 the number of integers. Plain wrong.

[@yunoewig3095]

It is not wrong to say that the probability of an integer being even is 1/2.

[@theprofessionalfence-sitter]

+Daniel Sampaio Yes and no. "A random integer" is fundamentally undefined. You can't take a random integer such that every integer has the same probability of being chosen. This is as, by definition, a probability measure needs to have the property that the probability of any of a countable number of mutually exclusive events occurring is the same as the sum of the probabilities of the individual event. So if you wanted to choose a random integer with each one having the same probability, you would need to find a real number that - added to itself infinitely often - is equal to one, but there is no such number. So when talking about probabilities of integers having some property, you need to specify a distribution and there is no canonical choice for this. There are distributions where the probability of an integer being even is 1/2, but it can also be any other number between 0 and 1. You could also look at the probability of a (uniformly distributed) random number between -n and n being even and take the limit for n->\infty which would be 1/2, but such results are not necessarily going to be meaningful in a given context.

[@yunoewig3095]

+The King of the Lizard People It is true that it is not possible to define a sigma-additive probability measure on the integers (that is, if you want all subsets to be measurable). It is, however, possible to define a finitely additive probability measure in a natural way, exactly as you proposed in the end of your answer. Proof: If A and B are disjoint, then P(AUB)= =lim(n->∞)(|(AUB)/\[-n,n]|/2n) (by definition) =lim(n->∞)(|(A/\[-n,n])U(B/\[-n,n])|/2n) (Boolean algebra) =lim(n->∞)(|A/\[-n,n]|/2n+|B/\[-n,n]|/2n) (because A/\[-n,n] and B/\[-n,n] are disjoint) =lim(n->∞)(|A/\[-n,n]/2n)+lim(n->∞)(|B/\[-n,n]/2n) (the sum of the limits is the limit of the sum) =P(A)+P(B) (by definition) Under this probability measure, the probability of an integer being even is 1/2, which is, I think, all but reasonable (indeed, it would be unreasonable if it were otherwise). In short, all your reasoning shows is that it is (in general) not interesting to consider sigma-additive probabilities on countable sets, because here sigma-additivity is too strong a requirement. Finitely additive probabilities work better in this context.

[@patakk8145]

I think the easiest way to explain how the "there's 90% chance of being dead" is wrong, is to realize that you're far more likely to be in the non-dying group since the greatest chances are that you're in the group that comes far after the one at which the game failed. So the chances of survival are indeed the greatest, although you're also probably not getting a million dollars, since the game finished long before your turn.