Dream cheating scandal - explaining ALL the math simply

[@Geosquare8128]

excellent video

[@mathemaniac]

OMG you commented!!!

[@faisalkhan2]

Cheer 🙌

[@ronisaiba9623]

@mathemaniac The mod team also included your video in their rebuttal to 'astrophysicist' paper. Prepare for larger footfall.

[@bloodyshadow867]

Yeah

[@mathemaniac]

@@ronisaiba9623 Yes, I do know that. Really big thanks to the mod team for including this video!

[@Zoronii]

I'm starting to think this controversy was all just a conspiracy theory to teach gamers statistics.

[@farrell7626]

I mean, it definitely works

[@sirkiz1181]

It’s them damn, damn... damners, trying to teach logic and things! Back in my days we didn’t have no stinkin logic!!

[@zachanikwano]

I mean if a gamer is a speed running or just really serious about certain games, they'll already know stats.

[@gus9351]

Ah yes the great reveal, the biggest plot twist of 2021

[@ash_thegamer17]

I wonder how many grades went up in statistics classes throughout the world from this.

[@ryankirby3641]

Can’t wait for college professors to use Dream as an example for questions on their exams

[@arleyantes9321]

HS teacher here, you just gave me an idea.

[@henrykwieniawski7233]

@@arleyantes9321 Please don't torture your AP stats students : (

[@skeletonwar4445]

"When am I ever gonna need this shit in real life?" "OH BOY DO I GOT A STORY FOR YA!"

[@arpitjha8968]

everyone gangsta until you see dream in your maths paper

[@cututorials]

Hahah truueeeee

[@TheNachoBro7]

I have a degree in Statistics and Data Extrapolation and my god, this whole situation just did my head in. All the videos I watched (prior to this one) just missed so much key data needed to understand the whole situation. Good job man

[@mathemaniac]

Thanks so much!

[@triogaming4077]

Thx for making this, I am not willing to waste my time reading a paper about a guy doing block game too fast,as I have more important matters to attend to. But I really hate how high school dropouts just rattle words off their script acting as if they have a clue on what they mean.

[@ronanshanley7829]

@@triogaming4077 that's a rather condescending comment for a matter that you consider unimportant

[@chaosincarnate7304]

@@ronanshanley7829 Correct me if I am wrong but aren't condescending comments used on matters or subjects that the user finds unimportant or inferior?

[@chaosincarnate7304]

@@ronanshanley7829 Also nice pfp where did you get it

[@bluetube767]

Me in school: meh Me in this video: *(actually listening and trying to understand how statistics work)*

[@jiaxihao1847]

LOL

[@DearHRS]

dang your teacher isn't good at retaining attention, or just video is more concise and doesn't waste time in drawing/writing and repeating same thing.

[@mulel_]

Couldn’t related more

[@etherealcat6521]

that is because when you are in school, the problems are abstract and disconnected from reality. There is no interest in finding how many tons of apples Mark gave to Jean, because noone really shares couple of tons of apples between each other, nor even apples. So whenever you are in school, you are solving problems that have nothing to do with the material reality we live in and just give you a feeling that maths only help solving those kinds of problems. However, as a gamer, you are interested in the gaming community. The controversy that is discussed here is very important, because it is one of the largest speedrun dramas ever occured, you relate yourself to that and this way, you don't feel about maths as something abstract, but rather something you HAVE to know about, something that HAS to deal with you, because it touches subject that is important to you. This is why.

[@achtsekundenfurz7876]

03:45 And now I feel cheated - I mean what are the chances that life is fair but I never got head???

[@murkish8268]

Never thought digging a 1x1 hole to hide from zombies turned into this

[@trashythedemon4867]

That's how bad it can be

[@crepit1413]

You must be a psychopath if you dug a 1x1 hole to hide from zomies, half your body would be sticking out!

[@solaris4022]

@@crepit1413 It's an unique strategy but a risk worth taking.

[@Drianikaben]

@@crepit1413 1x1 doesn't include depth. only width x length.

[@crepit1413]

@@Drianikaben That still doesn't make any sense, as there would be no hole to hide in.

[@throwaway569]

Plot twist: this entire drama was orchestrated to trick us into learning math

[@friskict2577]

Wouldn’t be surprised

[@mynewaccount2604]

This is the only funny plot twist comment I've seen for the past 2 years, good work

[@grully1326]

Plot twist: your gay

[@pomatolo1238]

@@grully1326 you're

[@epycperson]

no matter what, dream fans wont accept the truth and keep him defending

[@rabbitholeresident]

As someone who doesn't watch dream all this drama only made me realize how much better math classes could be. I am surprised how enjoyable watching someone explain math can be. Great work!

[@mathemaniac]

Thank you so much! Math can be interesting if you look at it the right way!

[@cristianv2850]

It becomes very interesting when math gets applied to any of your interests. That’s why I love math.

[@dimitri_tsm]

Yes, it sucks that not all Schools can use the same method and execute it correctly.

[@brom1277]

well theres a reason this took 80 hours to produce

[@samkeiser9776]

A teacher could totally teach a class with this scenario.

[@bawigsimp]

when you study for years to be an astrophysicist and the most eventful thing in your life is finding out whether someone cheated in a game

[@HypercopeEmia]

plot twist: dream is the astrophysicist

[@WangMotions]

That’s probably why they didn’t want their name revealed.

[@calamorta]

@@WangMotions "didn't want their name revealed" not a red flag at all

[@WangMotions]

@@calamorta Well if was really was an astrophysicist I wouldn’t want my colleagues to know that I was hired to do some Minecraft statistics, I would be a mocked

[@reidate7274]

@@WangMotions Not to sound harsh but I suspect Dream tossed around the idea of "an astrophysicist is backing my case" as an argumentum ab auctoritate trick. Although an astrophysicist certain have the ability to perform inspections and write a critique on the matter, a more reasonable choice would be to hire a statistician, after all, I fail to see how astrophysics would have jurisdiction over an RNG-based video game. Another more reasonable thing might be finding a coder to investigate whether or not there are logs/event evidences generated during RNG tempering, which would be a much more defendable stance, rather than the whole "I got lucky" point that Dream is trying to argue.

[@lilapela]

Imagine if some minecraft kid out there decided to major in a statistics related field after being inspired by videos like these

[@mathemaniac]

That would be interesting to see!

[@dirichlettt]

I'm already fairly involved with math at this point, but this whole dream speedrun thing has actually piqued my interest in statistics a lot.

[@justinhageman1379]

This whole speed-run stuff is actually getting me more interested in statistics

[@Brogle288]

hey you're the btd guy

[@SuasideLlamaRedstone]

Was already majoring in statistics so loving the overlap of MC & math atm

[@cool_lizard_clips]

The way that you basically reconstructed the process they went through to come up with the numbers definitely helped me understand it better. Keep it up

[@mathemaniac]

Thanks so much!

[@xPoemi]

One of the biggest issue I noticed while talking to people that still belive Dream just got lucky, is that they don't understand how small the p-value in this situation actually is. For them, as long as there is a number (no matter how many zeros are in front of it) it is completely possible that Dream got his lucky.

[@samuelthecamel]

I remember watching a video about probabilities of item drops in Zelda BotW. Someone commented about it being possible for a guardian to drop all giant ancient cores. However, someone replied saying the probability was a rediculously small number, something like 1 in 10^30. At this point any rational person would say "hey, that's pretty much impossible!". But here's the next comment, saying roughly "I'm sure that with the millions of people who play this game, at least one of them experienced this." Millions is nothing copared to 10^30. This opened my eyes to how stupid people can be in terms of probabilities.

[@Dr_Telfort]

that's because dream's viewers are at average of 12-14 years old, and don't understand maths

[@clocked0]

@@Dr_Telfort I understood probability better than dream stans at that age :/

[@lmao5751]

The thing about being Dream being really lucky is that his luck was way too high to be considered "lucky" and more of "near impossible"

[@clocked0]

@@lmao5751 Tell that to dream stans, they're all about the "but tEcHnIcAlLy iTs pOsSiBlE" bs

[@_Chlorophyllis]

Kudos to you for the hours and breakdown of the math involved.

[@mathemaniac]

Thanks!

[@shyamsingla716]

@@mathemaniac thanks, it was interesting to see how all arguments in favour were considered and at end we still came out with a number that said that it's 99.99999999% cheating which is practically cheating

[@haniirshad1188]

that was the most complicated math i've ever seen explained in the most entertaining way possible. nice job.

[@mathemaniac]

Thanks!

[@e-shou8556]

@@mathemaniac Thanks

[@gokaytaspnar1355]

@@mathemaniac thanks

[@headphoneshq6032]

@@mathemaniac thanks

[@juls114]

@@mathemaniac thanks

[@mathemaniac]

It took me 80+ hours to make this video, so do consider subscribing with notifications on, liking, sharing, and commenting on this video! Honestly, this is not my proudest work on this channel, because I actually kind of rushed it out, and there are some corrections (in the description, but comments might be better because nobody reads the description): 2:40: p-values mean getting AT LEAST as lucky as these success rates, not just as lucky. 13:00: The streams aren't exactly independent, so this is not an exact answer, but it works as an overestimate nonetheless because they are positively correlated; if you are not convinced, you can also consider the Bonferroni correction, which is very close to this. 13:50: I said 1.19 * 10^(-12), but the figure shown on screen is correct: 1.19*10^(-11). 14:51: 1000 is the UPPER BOUND, not an estimation 19:30: This is based on the faulty assumption that all speedrun attempts are streamed. 24:20: The astrophysicist's 1 in 6300 is somewhat close to the chance of 18 heads in a row, or 19 of heads or tails in a row, so maybe some coding mistakes, or that he is exceptionally lucky in obtaining so many runs of 20 heads in his simulation. Also, the early stopping identified by the astrophysicist is not even true - in Dream's speedruns, he just throws a lot of gold to a lot of piglins in parallel to see what is traded. There are also resources to learn more and the codes for some calculations and the simulations in the description, do take a look at them! If you are new here, do consider logging in your math levels so that I know how the videos should be paced: forms.gle/QJ29hocF9uQAyZyH6 The next video is a continuation of the video series I started just before this scandal, but it will be about statistics, which I am sure you will like anyway :)

[@mathemaniac]

Thanks for the appreciation so much!

[@Weptune]

Great video. As someone who is passionate about math, I've been waiting for a non biased video with the correct stats

[@mathemaniac]

You don't have to wait anymore :)

[@antoninuslarpus7107]

Very underrated channel

[@mur8255]

You did a pretty good job so far and i have shared this vid a lot,hope you get more atention :)

[@usagikidd]

As a guy who took a single semester of college statistics for a gen requirement for my major, this was much simpler to follow compared to the research paper. The visual explanation really helps haha

[@mathemaniac]

The research paper from the moderation team is actually quite easy to follow from my perspective, but I guess visuals aid understanding better. Thanks for the kind words!

[@BurakkuHishou]

I have to agree, i was able to follow along, even though i probably couldn't do this myself, because i took a statistics class earlier in the year. but eh, im not sure if dream cheated or not, but i care more about his manhunter videos than his speedrunner videos.

[@adrammelech6323]

@@BurakkuHishou if you still can't tell if Dream cheated or not then your statistics professors failed at teaching you statistics.

[@samplayzhd1255]

When you learn more Mathematics in a speedrunning drama than you learned from school

[@projecthopestudios3248]

Bruh moment

[@asyian8562]

Learning is actually fun But the teachers just don't know how to explain it properly so thats why most people don't learn anything from school

[@josep4259]

@@asyian8562 subjectively

[@MineCraft-nz9pg]

@@asyian8562 teachers only teach us to prepare for the exam

[@seanlebean8160]

@The Royal Gamer Same, I’m only in middle school so watching this has increased the neuron activity and iq by tenfold.

[@LuigiSkyskip]

I think it helps get across the absurdity of Dream's "luck" when put to an example people can understand. Here's a naïve one: Dream's chance of simply being lucky, as the mod team calculated, was 1.33 x 10^-13. A web search gives the chances of winning the lottery at around 7.15 x 10^-8, that's per game in a 49 choose 6 scenario. The chance of being dealt a royal flush in a poker game is 1.54 x 10^-6, an unbeatable hand. If you bought a single lottery ticket and won then took your winnings to a casino and played one round (not game, round) of poker where you were immediately dealt a royal flush then that is about as lucky as Dream is supposedly getting without cheating. Chance of jackpot and royal flush -> 1.10 x 10^-13. Or maybe you can put it even simpler and say that Dream's luck is like rolling a 6 on a fair-die 16 times in a row, where you can only throw the die 16 times -> 3.5x10^-13

[@mathemaniac]

Thanks for putting these probabilities in perspective!

[@theultimatebananaboi163]

and wasn't this only the chance that any speedrunner got that lucky

[@Londronable]

@@theultimatebananaboi163 Correct. The change is about it EVER happening. If we change that to it happening TO HIM to the items HE JUST COMPLAINED ABOUT and that he just HAPPENED TO NEED for the speedrun... He didn't find coal at inflated rates in some random try for example, only the exact items needed.

[@G.A.M.E.R.-]

The thing is, the math is wrong so it doesn’t matter anyway

[@colinfreyvogel3014]

@@G.A.M.E.R.- which math is wrong?

[@oscurodous7655]

Everyone gangsta until a block game requires statistics and probability

[@bmccla]

lol

[@LibraritheWizardOfficial]

For technical Minecrafters, it already did.

[@brian8653]

Tbh all games do

[@_username]

Modders: first time?

[@new_donker7189]

Literally any game.

[@bruhrespecct1967]

I am 14 years old, and even if it was hard to understand once, after watching your video thrice and doing some learning on binomial distribution including the 3 blue 1 brown’s series on binomial distribution, I could finally understand the video and the maths involved! Actually this video made me very interested in probability, making me realise that probability is much more complex than the very basic one taught at school. I will probably continue learning more about probability. Thank you!

[@mathemaniac]

Glad to know that! It does take time getting used to the ideas of probability, but glad that you finally understand!

[@LightningSushie]

bro u doing way better at math than I am. The thing is that the amount of fanbase that he has gotten has really made him less applicable to cheating. Even though a lot of evidence is put against him his fanbase really wouldn't understand the evidence put at hand because it is math and because we are human beings we are we often rely on our feelings and for a certain time, I thought Dream didn't cheat because of how simply he put it in his video. Now that I have researched more and more from people who supported Dream, to people who went against him and people who were neutral and only stated the facts. I think it is clear that Dream had indeed cheated and it really strikes me in the heart to say that but the evidence is really built up against him. The thing is that successful people aren't successful without "success" and this is why I think he did it. At the end of the day he'll post another manhunt and people will forget about the scandal XD

[@bruhrespecct1967]

@@LightningSushie yeah, I was always neutral about this topic, watched the geosqares video on this allegation, was curious about the maths involved and also watched dreams response, and wanted to know what was wrong according to the PhD and it brought me here, but as you said he will upload a new manhunt and people will forget unless he gets like a world record in 1.16 and then his previous cheating can be brought up

[@RodriHermo]

@@bruhrespecct1967 Yeah. Actually probability is pretty strange because for example on a dice, the average should be between 3 and 4, but when youmuse the dice, that doesnt happen that often and pretty rare probabilities like 2 times 6 in a row happens really frequently.

[@bruhrespecct1967]

@@RodriHermo yeah, monty hall problem is a really good example of that

[@ryanchristophergregorio9026]

instruction unclear, im now in harvard

[@arjuncheema8909]

harvards a law school

[@huabin7041]

Lol

[@alienmancat2504]

nice one dummy

[@taggamer335]

Explanation unclear, I accidentally learned the secrets of the universe.

[@fisheranderson8677]

Same

[@missScarlatine]

Did you find 42 to?

[@otesunki]

@@missScarlatineno, I got 42.069

[@juandavidesguerra5423]

Fool I learned Obamas last name

[@missScarlatine]

@@otesunki Shit! I'm so gonna flunk that class

[@markpolop5171]

Mans luck is looking like the mass of an electron

[@Sebastian-cu2zq]

best comment

[@hannibalbarca7220]

Lmao

[@Adloquiem]

LOL

[@nailbiter1]

not even wrong 😂

[@Korotan_]

Wait hol up that’s actually quite small (I’m talking literlly if we are talking about the chances dream had that luck out of the world)

[@mikoajmackowiak6993]

Just as the redditor physicist mentioned, this astrophysicst made many weird mistakes. It would be cool to actually see a response from astrophysicst to all those videos.

[@mathemaniac]

Yes, this is basically summarizing what the redditor physicist said, but in a video format, because not many people like wordy responses. This video is proofread by the physicist!

[@euclideanspace2573]

"Astrophysicist", probably got his degree from a McDonald's.

[@godusopp2752]

@@mathemaniac when I went over his math I was wondering did he accidentally make these mistakes or did he make them on purpose hoping no one would check it

[@GrayCatbird1]

There are two things that could explain why he made those mistakes without suggesting the astrophysicist was incompetent: 1) he didn't see it as an important issue and did a sloppy job or 2) Dream was involved in the production of the paper and directed him to make certain claims or analyses.

[@euclideanspace2573]

@@GrayCatbird1 Dream's tactic was pretty simple. Just throw enough doubt and shade at the original report by Geo&co. This is a very common method used by politicians and so called "activists" to discredit cold hard numbers that doesn't align with their worldview. "Don't say it's false, call them a bunch of -ist words and find something that might be inconsistent." Example: mods are biased, they are young and unpaid volunteers. What purpose does such lines serve besides character assassination? I've seen the "they thought no one would be stupid enough to read 25+ pages on a speedrun". Perhaps true, but who would be stupid enough to cheat in the first place? (I actually enjoy his content, especially manhunts)

[@sarcobarco9562]

"run a simple Monte Carlo simulation" *proceeds to fuck up this simple task*

[@andrejosue98]

The guy of the video does not know the code, so that is like me telling you that I got a 1/100 chance, without giving you any math. You can only guess what I did and if you get a different answer, does not mean I am wrong

[@pk4780]

@@andrejosue98 First of all - It's been verified what went wrong. The "expert" applied bias correction to the simulation to prove that it's biased. Uhh, yeah. See what's wrong with that. You have to show the simulation is biased to use bias correction, not apply bias correction to prove... bias? Like, if you apply bias correction immediately, of course the simulation is going to be biased. The original question is WHETHER THE SIMULATION IS BIASED IN THE FIRST PLACE, so you run the original vs theoretical and compare the numbers directly. Moreover, if you say, "My simulation ran 1+1=3! Just respect my opinion! You sound like an unironic flat earther.

[@pwl2992]

@@pk4780 +1, i couldnt agree more

[@pwl2992]

@@andrejosue98 you sound like that one guy in math class, who got called out by the teacher for making serious mistake, and after the lesson you tell him angrily "JUST BECAUSE MY ANSWER IS DIFFERENT, DOESNT MEAN IM WRONG" I mean, it literally does mean that

[@andrejosue98]

@@pwl2992 What is wrong about what I said? If you don´t have the code you can´t know if someone messed up the code or not.

[@thesecretkey9845]

Thanks for making this. People should never have been told that the mathematics was "too complicated". It deters people from having a little patience, sitting down, reading the papers, digesting their arguments, and doing their own investigations.

[@mathemaniac]

Yes, that's so true! I hope this video helps in combatting this :)

[@thebush6379]

Yeah its pretty much high school level math. No need for a math professor

[@snowlockk3464]

@@thebush6379 At 26 minutes, if he'd said he'd proven my mother was my father, I'd believe him. I got lost like 5 minutes in.

[@jnn3025]

i understand this but i still hate math tho. yes this is high school math too

[@nilen]

@@jnn3025 WTF!!

[@rednassie1101]

You know this guy knows math when he doesn't say "nice" at 69%

[@mathemaniac]

Nice

[@jojomtms]

Nice

[@zephyroze]

Nice

[@noename2973]

Nice

[@zackeatsbutteryt8856]

Nice

[@iTMG]

really nice explanation, thank you! :)

[@realcow1]

wait you aren't verified what?

[@mathemaniac]

Thanks for the compliment :)

[@lilapela]

Now use rick roll to explain the math

[@user-zk4nh2el7h]

Almost 1 million subs and not verified yet nice job youtube

[@rapip3348]

how are you not verified

[@mogulkhantouchthis4561]

Although it disheartens me to admit, being a dream viewer, this is incredibly well explained and you have very well convinced me. Even if i want to believe in dream, it doesn't matter what i want to believe when faced with facts.

[@MrBenjigee]

Good for you. Changing your opinion when presented with new evidence is the sign of a mature mind.

[@pranavyedlapalli2127]

Yeah, even I like dreams videos. I believe it's very very likely he cheated, but I don't understand why. I mean he is not a speedrunner. He was just practicing for manhunt. Why did he cheat ? I respect him for bringing people back to Minecraft but I also think he owes an apology.

[@skeletonwar4445]

You can still continue to like Dream and his videos. Dream, the content creator is basically irrelevant to this issue. If you enjoy his videos, him cheating in speedrunning doesn't really change anything about them. I started watching some his videos because of this controversy, to see what kind of person he is, and now I can understand why so many of his fans defend him. He doesn't seem like someone who would cheat in a world record speedrun. I do think that his behaviour after the first accusations wasn't very good, but I don't think he's a terrible person. Many of his fans have the same problem that was mentioned here. They don't understand *why* he would cheat. And yeah, on the first glance, it makes no sense for him to cheat. He's easily one of the best MC players in the world, is a successful Speedrunner and has a massive KZbin channel with a huge community. If you're interested in why he did it, Karl Jobst (former/current multi-WR Holder in different speedrun categories) made a video regarding Dream recently and it explains the "Why?" better than I could here.

[@Im_A_Nerd]

dude, even if dream himself cheated for some reason, you can still enjoy his manhunts. its ok to enjoy his content, even if he himself made poor life choices

[@cezarcatalin1406]

Nathanael Cornell Yes, it’s bad enough to be called “Cheater, cheater, beetroot yeeter” by the biggest gaming community on the planet. Punitive justice is bad and we shouldn’t do it.

[@TheLemming1337]

well damn, never in a billion years i would have estimated (heh) that i would get educated in math because of something so trivial as minecraft drama, im impressed, im subscribing since who knows how usefull this kind of applied math can be in another time

[@mathemaniac]

Thanks for the subscription! I never thought that a drama would involve (and basically be based on) math either, but this is a great opportunity to learn statistics!

[@Voltrox]

Well I have to say, that was well explained!

[@Mysoulgone]

True

[@mathemaniac]

Thanks for the kind words!

[@qcom1008]

Verified comment with no likes and one reply 🧐

[@Mysoulgone]

@@qcom1008 it seems like you are blind

[@Snomadu]

@@Mysoulgone lmao I think you’re right

[@DanielGonzalezL]

They should just make a Dream% category with Ender Pearls and Blaze Rods dropping 100% of the time

[@benbrighton1]

Savage, but that category would be fun to watch for sure :P

[@adrianndrules]

at that point you might as well change the entire category to set seed instead of random seed, since good world generation requires luck as well.

[@lmva]

the ultimate BM

[@antimatter2417]

Good one :D

[@satorudo]

When people said the abstract was already bad I didn’t think it was going to be THAT bad If I had made that kind of blunder in my abstract, my professor would have publicly flogged me after parading me around campus screaming “SHAME! SHAME”

[@gijslagerweij9892]

P-values and binomial distributions are actually exactly the subject for my next maths exam, thanks for the last study boost! :)

[@mathemaniac]

Glad to know it helps! Hope your exam goes well!

[@iCybutMelting]

Regardless of what you think of Dream, the Minecraft speedrunning community’s mods had pretty great math when you think about it

[@samkeiser9776]

They messed up with the p-hacking but like... dream cheated so...

[@bulldozer8950]

Especially considering they’re just volunteers. It’s crazy what kinds of skills get brought to the table when something is interesting enough for enough people.

[@powerpug964]

@MorTobXD lol

[@iCybutMelting]

@@samkeiser9776 to be fair, they didn’t mess up the mathematics specifically, but the constraints related to the amount of Minecraft items, right?

[@samkeiser9776]

@@iCybutMelting yeah, the equations were fine, just not the numbers they used.

[@Bored-su5op]

Let's just appreciate that this man took 80+ hours from his precious time to know if a guy cheated in a game or not.

[@mathemaniac]

Well, the moderation team spent a lot more time than me, like a few months - I only tried to explain the math used by both sides.

[@Bored-su5op]

@@mathemaniac Tell the team that we appreciate thier hardwork, keep it up!

[@shyamsingla716]

@@mathemaniac I love how people spend 1000s of hours learning and practicing these things and then 100s of hours compiling it for fair play and then some radome astrophysist comes and says it's flawed at every single point but in report his numbers say that they were generous and correct

[@Phapchamp]

The only good thing that came from this drama is that i actually learned a bit about probability maths. Im sure lots of others did as well thanks to you

[@mathemaniac]

That's a plus in my book!

[@muhammadfiras4784]

My brain still can't comprehend even half of the calculation, but hey, at less i understand the bigger picture, thank you random person whose video i watch right now

[@spools.i1311]

TL:DR - White blobby minecraft character gets accused of cheating while speedrunning, some say he's extremely lucky, but statistic evidence say otherwise.

[@tapeeater1553]

Normally these videos are completely flooded with comments by Dream fans who refuse to admit that their idol cheated, but it seems you explained this so easily and clearly that almost all of them either admitted they were wrong or plead the fifth. Great job on the video. Really taking after the kind of quality to expect from a 3blue1brown video.

[@pyroball602]

Err, here's the thing on my side. I've never even seen Protector Dream Fans OUTSIDE of Dream's response video. Either they're really deep in the comments, or the opposers are full-out haters antagonizing literally everyone who protects Dream (heck, I always find fans that only care about Dream coming clean on those kinds of videos), even if they do not exist. Here's something to think on, if they suspected Dream cheated, why not do a proper investigation of his client to find any modifications? Dream countered all the accusations related to the client in his response. Not all of the methods of cheating were checked, according to other people. The investigation was extremely sloppy, what's going on? Not saying I am on Dream's side, his side almost seems sus, but on a way lesser scale than the mods, and I don't have any grounds to suspect Dream, and I'm just following with the flow of every attacker. I'm taking neutral and just watching. I wonder what will be uncovered...

[@samkeiser9776]

@@pyroball602 the mods are so less sus than dream, not saying the investigation is flawless, but they already know that dream knows a method he could use to cheat that doesn’t touch the games files at all. (Mentioned in karl jobst vid) Dream on the other hand: His response video was fluff, and didn’t explain the math at all, (literally the paper criticizes the mods for not correcting for things they blatantly corrected for.) The physician was nameless, unprofessional, and wrong. Later he was contradictory about where the physician came from after people sused the physician’s legitimacy.

[@Didagg]

@@pyroball602 innthe dream questioning video, everyone is saying he isn’t cheating

[@totmgsrockxd9900]

Stans, not fans. Chill fans are healthy, but stans are malleable instruments of mass annihilation.

[@0DemonKiller0]

@@samkeiser9776 Physicist*, Physician means something completely different. While you are right, other than the math, there is no other concrete evidence of Dream cheating like for example, a telltale sign of a modified client or mod file. While it is extremely likely that Dream cheated, let's take a step in his shoes and assume he really did not cheat for the purpose of this conversation. If you are Dream, let's just say you know for a fact that you did not cheat, or have the intention to cheat. You have already fully co-operated with the mod teams and gave them as much information as you possibly could. You desperately look for someone who can assist to prove your innocence and comes across some "Harvard Phd holder" that you were recommended by someone and you're in a rush to get your video out. Said professional is amateur at best and screws you over, while you have absolutely no clue whatsoever that your paper that you paid for is actually wrong, and posts it online. You do your best with the information available to you and make a rebuttal video. The above scenario is entirely possible. I am completely aware of the fact of how completely ridiculous the odds are, yet it is not 100% impossible. If Dream cheated, there has to be a method that is able to replicate his runs to get the odds that he has without modifying the game files at all, yet there has been no mentions of such a method. All the accusations against Dream has been PURELY off the probabilities.

[@TheReal4th]

I watched some of your older content way before this, and not gonna lie, I never expected this video to come from a channel like yours, but I'm glad you did make it.

[@mathemaniac]

Found an OG Mathemaniac fan haha :)

[@johnmarcusengreso7829]

even if im a 12 year old who just wanna find out that dream cheated or not, im starting to know math better

[@mafiapepe1144]

Same

[@johnmarcusengreso7829]

@@mafiapepe1144 lol

[@mathemaniac]

That's very good to know!

[@johnmarcusengreso7829]

@@mathemaniac lol, im not that good at math

[@triogaming4077]

If you are interested in this topic then I would strongly recommend looking over basic statistics taught in geometry. For your age a good goal to go for is understanding sets, permutations, and combinations. Then you can jump off from there to the world of statistics.

[@drxgonfly1191]

definitely worth watching it all the way though, really well put together

[@mathemaniac]

Really appreciate the effort! It isn't easy to sit through almost half an hour of math!

[@dacrasherz4866]

I came in to find out if dream cheated or not Came out with a math degree

[@fregyt]

And found out that dream cheated 😂

[@Tgunfan]

Statistics*

[@Compl3x1ty0]

Same

[@TheRealEncy]

Dream Cheating Unsolve Mystery : *100 Day To Solve The Problem, And Frustration.* Dream Cheating Problem If He Just Said "Fine I Don't Care If You Guys Think I'm Cheating, Then I'll Just Do Another Speedrun Instead Trying To Get A Better Record" : *5 Day*

[@derpycats8072]

As a stat minor I am slightly offended you just generalize us to be just “math”

[@ssscout]

Can you please play Death Note music in your videos?

[@emmanjose6373]

If you want music go make 2 tabs if that works boi !!!. i dont know what death note music is. It might be bad with the video. !!!

[@zimistic6680]

Air

[@mikatheperson]

i did not expect to find you here of all places o_o i like your edits btw!

[@theyisgreen.9883]

I want this now

[@tieclipcollectordariASWO]

Hi lol

[@henrygreen2096]

As a physics and maths major, I understand the arduous task of putting stuff like this together. And this is a REALLY well thought out and made video. Your creativity is a nice touch. The video does a great job keeping my attention all the way through and genuinely want to keep watching. The few mistakes I noticed were corrected by you in the description. This is one of the few times a video has actually made me like, comment, and subscribe lol, I’m also going to go ahead a share the video. Keep it up.

[@mathemaniac]

Wow thanks so much for the appreciation!

[@deezntz70]

Hey man, as someone with a statistics major, this video was really well made. I appreciate someone intuitively explain p-values and how to account for biases to an audience not familiar with the topic.

[@mathemaniac]

Thank you so much for the appreciation!

[@Bruhlie]

Very well made video. Although I knew that the astrophysicist's math was almost certainly wrong from reading posts on reddit, I didn't completely understand why, so it's nice to have a video explaining simply why it is wrongg.

[@mathemaniac]

Good to know it helps understanding! That is exactly the goal of this video.

[@mikloscsizmadia780]

What subreddit are these posts in?

[@keryth]

@@mikloscsizmadia780 r/dreamwastaken2

[@skade245]

Just for perspective: The odds of scoring the $654 million Mega Millions prize is 1 in 302 million.

[@erickallstrom4963]

so even winning the lottery is more likely than dream getting this lucky

[@Userfulpo]

Winning the lottery multiple times in a row is more likely, if what these people say is true not sure if it is not smart enough to know but smart enough to not blindly trust them. IF true then not s good look for dream

[@dallama2616]

@@Userfulpo its litterally math how do you lie in math unless you just give the wrong answers

[@Necrodius_]

@@dallama2616 "truth" in math can be relative at times when it comes to more abstract concepts

[@skeletonwar4445]

@@Necrodius_ True. But this isn't one of those.

[@quopi7183]

dude im just a 15 year old guy and you explained this really well and clearly. Great video man.

[@mathemaniac]

Thanks so much! Good to know that people really understand this after the video!

[@uhermuh]

Thank you for having closed captions, it makes it a lot easier for me to understand the information :D

[@mathemaniac]

Thanks for the appreciation! My videos are scripted anyway, so it doesn't hurt to do captions as an extra step!

[@RodriHermo]

@fcrgotten I am spanish speaker and I understanded perfectly. Learn english :/

[@phase_2face]

Leaving a comment so that the youtube algorithm recommends to more people because this is amazing

[@mathemaniac]

Aww thanks so much for commenting and your appreciation!

[@cleiven3533]

also commenting to help the algorithm because this is amazing

[@Luigi_Pallestrini]

also commenting to help the algorithm because this is

[@dumbr0737]

fun fact, youtube algorithm works only with watchtime, if alot of people finish or at least watch most of the video it gets reccomended to more people and if thye allso watch it all then it gets more reccomended, and for more and more people until it reches people that have no interrest and dont click the video, its all about click rate and watch time :D

[@turt8560]

@@mathemaniac Could you do a comparison video on a minecraft speedrun where the player didn't cheat? I'd like to see the differences in the probability rates

[@sounak5853]

*Me, a medical student who hasn't touched serious math in 5 years:* Hmm, he's right. Yeah, that definately makes sense. Yes, that must be the correct value...

[@maxwellsequation4887]

Not doing math for 5 YEARS!? That must s u c k How are you still alive?

[@alienmancat2504]

@@maxwellsequation4887 Of course he is still alive after 5 years of not doing serious math are you dumb? 😂

[@zazithym3569]

@@maxwellsequation4887 I mean this person is studying medicine, why would they need to learn serious math lmao

[@djfhsusbruh6698]

I am an engineering student still have no idea what he talking about. Lol.

[@dontaskdontjudge]

It's always cool to see experts and enthusiasts in their craft. It's even cooler when said folks can explain their craft so know-nots like yours truly can understand and follow along

[@mathemaniac]

Thanks! Making it accessible is precisely the primary goal of this video!

[@corberus3119]

i believe Einstein said if you can't explain it simply then you don't understand it well enough

[@epicsyincs7261]

Dream is secretly an educational sponsor, he got us all to learn statistics. They have to teach us one way or another, no normal human being would willingly learn statistics anyways.

[@jacobamarjan2325]

This drama is sponsored by Skillshare

[@xmod2]

Looks like the astrophysicist was using a modded version of the Monte Carlo simulation which gave increased odds for a run of heads. 🤣

[@mcr1179]

Underrated comment

[@kanan348]

@@mcr1179 The chance of this comment being so funny are so low that commenter used a modded youtube account.

[@itslullas]

Nice one

[@akbarputraa7574]

XDD

[@felipechoy2156]

Me as a physics student: Why doesn't he payed a frikin Mathematic.

[@evandiliberto6238]

I find it very funny that Matt Pat would not clearly say that dream cheated but quoted your video as the most accurate factual piece of evidence... He knows what's up lol

[@CPDealer]

MatPat’s video was useless and he was too scared to admit Dream cheated because of controversy.

[@vexbanearamori7224]

@@CPDealer true that

[@timothy4077]

@@CPDealer MatPat has done some collaborations with Dream before so I see why he wouldn't want to admit it.

[@lilowhitney8614]

@@CPDealer Give the guy a break. Internet mobs are never fun and all he wanted to do was talk about statistics, not weigh in on the drama.

[@TheB0sss]

@@CPDealer useless? I don't think so, this whole drama taught a lot of people maths/probabilities. Matpat has by far the biggest reach of any of these videos

[@Phantom-mn3pj]

This was dope and I am low key REALLY glad you made this because I couldn’t make a judgement on wether he had cheated or not because the math is dumb and way too complicated and then you were like “Here you go!”

[@mathemaniac]

Glad to know it helps!

[@no_mnom]

Saying "the probability of getting a head" when talking about low probabilities makes me laugh uncontrollably

[@mathemaniac]

It really doesn't help when there is a 69 joke for the blaze drop rate :)

[@ruthvenrico5336]

And the 1 in 20 *sex* tillion chance

[@cjnels0]

@@mathemaniac i was the 69th like too

[@_deletedalex_7001]

P-value

[@gabriellins3572]

@@mathemaniac nor about the sextillion

[@Toni_231]

If you drink every time he says "P Value", then you wouldnt even be able to understand simple math.

[@givemeanameiwillhate9525]

@Isaac Chen lmfao

[@programmaticallysun7musgov999]

I feel sorry for you, having to deal with all of the younger people in the comments who might not fully grasp the concepts. Keep up the great work and doing what you love doing. We appreciate you!

[@autumn4442]

I'm actually taking an online probability and statistics course right now, and I JUST got to the unit where this stuff is covered. This video has certainly helped my understanding, so thank you! :)

[@mathemaniac]

Glad to know it helps! Hope you do well in the course!

[@Deses]

I gotta give props to Dream, thanks to him we are now learning statistic analysis to understand how he cheated!

[@shoemannclara]

yay for humanity

[@bulldozer8950]

Honestly if he came out in a month or two and said he did cheat and he was trying to orchestrate an effort to teach kids stats I wouldn’t vane be mad. Like even if that’s just an excuse this has definitely caused quite a bit of good in terms of education.

[@nealrame1785]

@@bulldozer8950 none it is from him, though, considering the rebuttal was riddled with errors and created by a source that is questionable at best.

[@TheRealEncy]

Me : *"What did It Cost to Fool us To Learn Math?"* Dream : *"My Carreer."*

[@nealrame1785]

@@TheRealEncy bold of you to assume that his fans actually care that he cheated and continues to publically lie about it

[@Lachlanrocca]

This video will DEFINEITLY go underappreciate even if it went trending. Such a great video and really appreciate the time and unbias point of view. Never once critiqued anyone's personality or lack of knowledge, just their working and a better explanation. You're a beast.

[@skeetsmcgrew3282]

Well, in the nicest way possible he did basically call the astrophysicist guy a scrub lol

[@mathemaniac]

Thanks so much! The objective of this video is simply to explain the math involved, and so I don't want to attack anyone based on personality.

[@fourk_]

Can we just appreciate that this video is really well made? Like it even has subtitles

[@mathemaniac]

Thanks so much for the appreciation! The subtitles part is really just a small extra step, because my videos are scripted anyway.

[@maxwellsequation4887]

@@mathemaniac You are brilliant!

[@rafiihsanalfathin9479]

@@mathemaniac subtitles is really worth it for me because im not a native speaker

[@absolutegamers9194]

even a guy who just learned english and maths can understand the video clearly. simple and concise video

[@mathemaniac]

Thanks!

[@choosename8033]

Bro wat my dumbass can't understand why of these maths but I liked them cuz they put hard work

[@jojomtms]

I am a French 13 years old guy who felt so clever while watching the video, thanks you so much for your detailed and understandable explanation

[@jakubkonopa5840]

same Graphics really helped with understanding Idn why i like to watch this math videos when i am not understanding 90% of their content

[@briixus]

It's funny how math channels are getting the most of this drama

[@silencedcorn8042]

MathManiac: I explained the video clearly Me: tf is going on

[@MigWith]

Same, my mind cant comprehend

[@yusufn7467]

Lol

[@galehunter2519]

You might have to pause the video repeatedly on your first watch, but you’ll eventually get it.

[@skeletonwar4445]

"Show me evidence, not numbers!" Is really everything I need to hear from a dream stan to know they ain't understanding shit.

[@MineCraft-nz9pg]

not all of them are 💩

[@kurodo9926]

You know that probabilityes have way more probabilityes to happening? I mean that although most of stans won't believe anything the numbers are still a shitty evidence. Chance that our planet is like this right now with humans is low, people get struck by meteorites, survive and get struck by them another time. Shit I can get 20 out of 20 toin tosses being heads and everything so this argument about whether he cheated will not let anyone to truth. The fact that you are using numbers as well as others is no better evidence than them saying "dream would never do this". I am sure that numbers are just the only thing that we can take now. But geo using his mod folder really looked shady, and saying bullcrap without evidence which everyone didn't even look at. I think we should at least watch this from other perspectives like logic, reasons and other stuff. BC we are beating a dead horse at this point with cheating. Stans hate on guys that say that mostly because people are trying hurt dream this way, just the fact that people are trying to dox him shows that their reaction is not that ucalled seeing how haters are worse and worse every time ypu hear something about them

[@trolloftime5340]

@@kurodo9926 I agree

[@vinzcastro9304]

@@kurodo9926 Numbers mean alot actually and hold way more weight than the phrase 'Dream would never do this'. However this is just a speedrun and doesn't really affect alot of people so it doesn't really matter. I mean, dream's main thing is the Dream SMP and manhunts and not speedrunning so people debating this is pretty entertaining to say the least

[@kurodo9926]

@@vinzcastro9304 no it's not man. My point was that the guys saying about numbers that they clearly don't know and which can be changed drastically just because decided to use abother method is obviously bullshit. It is as shitty as defending dream as a person, you don't know it as a whole, and there are way more variables that you can't see

[@polen3396]

Listening to my math teacher: ❌ Listening to maths about Dream's "luck" during his speedruns: 👉

[@nathandoan5717]

I’m not even in statistics yet and I’m still sitting here like I know what he’s talking about

[@polen3396]

@@nathandoan5717 thats like,, most of the people watching this

[@KjSome1]

nice pfp👀

[@victoriayancheva7425]

I LITERALLY JUST SLEPT THROUGH A MATH CLASS AN HOUR AGO I LOVE THIS COMMENT

[@LibraritheWizardOfficial]

Education needs to be fun and engaging. Math classes usually aren't either for normies. Maybe the secret ingredient is drama?

[@FatLingon]

Statistical analysis is facinating but tricky, thus I do prefer to simulate the scenario, which I have done all day. Simulating each scenario (pearls and rods) seperatly in accordance with the odds for each. I'm at 1200000000 simulated runs and Dream's odds for pearls nor rods haven't whizzed by even once. I still like Dream, he is entertaining and I will still keep watching his videos. But his "luck" just ain't happening in my computer no matter how many times I run the simulation. On top of that, the pearls and rods should probably be combined into an even lower likelihood.

[@lawrencevillanoza6270]

Trying to be the luckiest person in the world? Well that's new, I thought it was random now it can be achieve by anyone

[@marcelaoo]

nah man he just got a really good gaming chair

[@ClimbingyeA]

@@lawrencevillanoza6270 if something is random that means it can be achieved by anyone idiot

[@lawrencevillanoza6270]

@@ClimbingyeA yeah even I can be the luckiest person in the world!.. if I try right?!

[@ClimbingyeA]

@@lawrencevillanoza6270 you do have to try luck has nothing to do with skill, the term lucky is almost a fallacy in itself, because there is no observable condition that allows you to have consistently above average luck. The thing is good things don’t randomly happen to you more than they do to others because you are lucky, you are being called lucky simply because good things are currently happening to you more than they commonly do to others.

[@not_quite_clarinet]

I don't have to go to an ivy league college to show that dream cheated this sums up my thoughts perfectly

[@mathemaniac]

That's the point of this video! You just need the patience to understand the math to see the mistakes in astrophysicist's arguments!

[@fredreickweaver809]

@@mathemaniac well communicated!

[@mathemaniac]

@@fredreickweaver809 Thank you!

[@bennetttan8535]

@@mathemaniac I mean dude it's just intro to stats nothing serious nothing hard really but a Harvard PhD holder can't even get it right is funny to me

[@bennetttan8535]

@Meme Lord I heard that dude literally asked for 1.6k USD to write dream's response I will seriously disembowel myself the fact that dream paid 1.6k for a broken and crappy 19 page high school grade academic writing paper using wiki stuff as reference and getting all the math wrong.

[@Simoran]

Even after taking an AP stats class in high school and vaguely understanding the math in the scandal, getting an in depth refresher on this kind of stuff is always really nice, and something I haven't seen from any other math channel. Fantastic job!

[@mathemaniac]

Thanks so much!

[@randomidiot2632]

Just to add to the "Main criticism from astrophysicist" section at ~ 18:03 - 19:36. In the paper, if you look at the very last bit of the code, he (I believe incorrectly) applies a correction for each individual run where 10 ender pearls were obtained. In the paper, he calculated a probability distribution that had the expected number of trades needed to get 10 ender pearls. This distribution accounted for the effects of stopping after getting 10 pearls in a single run. Using these new probabilities, he calculated the probability of getting 42/262 successful trades. I believe this is wrong because as each run ends, there is always a new run that follows after so the chain of ender pearl trades never truly ends until the 262nd one. In other words, he misuses and over-exaggerates the correction needed to account for the bartering results.

[@mathemaniac]

Thanks for the input here! The animations for that part was quite brief and weird, so this hopefully clears up any misconceptions.

[@nonnonsence]

The barter run never reaches two and always starts with each barter. Maybe IDK

[@moneypie5102]

You're correct.

[@bamm3707]

I love that the mathematics community is being called out of the shadows to save the day. Instead of taking their homework we're cheating on a test in hopes of not failing. Thanks math man, much appreciated. I still don't understand statistics but I believe you

[@abletodoit3051]

That's a sweet sentiment, but the math man wants you to believe not just in him, but yourself too! This is an interesting mathematical problem, so whenever you have the free time, give this a few more gos, won't ya? :)

[@TheFdsui]

I knew most of this material already from having taken statistics in university, but holy shit you explained it better then majority of my professors. I understood it from you better then a whole semesters worth of my profs

[@mathemaniac]

Wow, thanks so much for the kind words!

[@willpestka2745]

Same here. Took probablity dumbed down for engineers and this video blew my profs out fo the water

[@pwl2992]

And yet there will still be a person who says "hey! Im aware of the fact, that this number is astronomically low, but its still possible!"

[@pwl2992]

Btw you explained it very well. Thanks

[@minecrafting_il]

Because that is right! altho I also think he cheated we NEVER can be 100% sure he cheated, there is always a chance. they think he cheated because the chance he would get this luck (or better) is soooo low that the logical decision is to disqualify his runs. I did not want to believe that he cheated, but as someone who always follows logic and math, I have to accept that Dream cheated. Not cool Dream.

[@pwl2992]

@@minecrafting_il its true, but after certain number (like 1 in 7.5 trilions) we can assume, that the chance that he cheated is far higher, than the chance that he "just got lucky". At least in my humble opinion

[@Melecie]

there are four types of people in the world: - "99.999% = 100%, dream cheated for sure" - "there's a tiny % but it's so unlikely" - "there's a tiny %, but i believe in benefit of doubt" - "there's a chance, thus dream is legit"

[@minecrafting_il]

@@pwl2992 exactly. But I think that if the chance of him cheating is 60% (its an example), it is still logical to think its legit. But since the chances are SOOOO low we can be *almost* certain that Dream cheated, but we can never be 100% sure.

[@safefireforever]

As a guy that failed math, being able to understand and follow this was quite amazing, good stuff

[@mathemaniac]

Thanks! Glad it helps understanding!

[@regularname1825]

@@t0rkel nah, he just failed math

[@deprecated8036]

@@t0rkel Isn't it the school system and teacher's fault for teacher math the way he won't understand?

[@hybrid_lives]

Came for the speedrun math, subbed for the stylistic similarity to 3blue1brown. Keep up the good work!

[@withnosensetv]

Yeah I'm glad I found this channel, even if it was unexpected.

[@mathemaniac]

Thanks!

[@henrycavalierkingcharlessp6064]

This video needs more views. You’re a paragon; math has saved us all.

[@mathemaniac]

Thanks so much for the appreciation! Can't take this high as a compliment lol

[@lero_1711]

*doesn't understand anything that involves math me: Interesting...

[@mpcrauzer]

Since highschool i remember my math teacher saying, beware values that are almost no one notice, those always hide something important, you cant lie to numbers

[@nix207]

Despite my undergrad in math, I couldn't summon the patience to read either paper. Wish I found this channel earlier so I could revive some of that love of math I lost through the years.

[@mathemaniac]

Glad to know that it inspires interest in math!

[@Roescoe]

I read the paper and the 6300 number was the wackiest thing about it. Other than that it didn't really say much. What I'd like to see is a summary of statistical significance. Like is 11 streams really enough to accurately sample for pearl trades, or do you really need 1000 streams?

[@rafaelt1772]

The only think I would like to mention is how the astrophysicist tries to dilute the absurd ammount of luck Dream got by adding other 11 streams to the sample, which is a major bias considering you can literally just turn on any cheating method at any given point, which is likely what happened. If anything, it's even more suspicious that he went thorugh so many streams having normal luck, and then suddently it just spiked into an unfathomable number. I think another thing that should have been mentioned is the probability that the astronomically large luck happened to affect the two items that are completely essential to that specific speedrunning category. It could have affected anything at all, but it did for the two RNG items that the run depends on. This context, for me, is even more incriminating than the actual numbers.

[@seal516]

I’m happy someone said this However to be fair if something so unlikely happened to something else it wouldn’t have been noticed since it wouldn’t affect the run. Like dream says, technically something as unlikely happened in world gen when he chose the seed. But I compl. agree with you

[@pabloweap]

I disagree. Imagine if i had you throw a coin 100 times and then looked only at the one time you threw 3 heads in a row, claiming: "he had a 100% heads-rate, clearly this is where he swapped the coin for a fake one". You would probably argue that over the 100 throws you did not have a weird rate of heads and therefor i need to consider all of the cases not just the 3 i picked because you were lucky in them. This is what the astophysicist is arguing in why we should consider all streams, not just the luckiest just as you would argue that we need to consider all of your coiin tosses, not just the 3 where you were lucky. The fact that you can turn of cheating or in our example swap coins does not affect the logic. (just as an addition: the astrophysicist logic is still wrong, cause as this video exaplins the bias in choosing a sequence of streams was already accounted for, but he wasn't wrong for the reasons you say.) Secondly "If anything, it's even more suspicious that he went thorugh so many streams having normal luck, and then suddently it just spiked into an unfathomable number." may feel like evidence of him swapping cheats on/off but it really isn't. Let`s just assume dream did NOT cheat and it was just completly unbelievable luck. If this was the case we would not expect him to be luckier in all his other attempts too, as they are not connected. Or to use another example: Imagine if i went to someone who just won a million dollars with a lottery ticket and said: "The fact that you suddenly got so lucky, while in all your other attempts you had average luck (meaning your luck spiked as you call it) makes it more suspicious". Wether or not Dream cheated we would expect his other attempts to have average luck.

[@robertjencks3679]

@@pabloweap the issue with your 3 coin analogy is the fact it is only 3 instances. If it happened 1000 times in a row you wouldn't believe it was still the fair coin. And the reason you don't is because it is so unlikely to happen. And you would perform the kind of analysis you see in the video to quantify how unlikely it is. And then any rational person will say "fuck you, you cheated"

[@pabloweap]

@@robertjencks3679 yeah, i agree with you. I think dream cheated. But i think that even if someone is correct, one should try to polish your best arguments and still point out flaws in arguments that you consider wrong, even if they argue the same as you. The comment i replied to, seemed to suggest that dreams activities where suspicious because his luck seemed to spike which i don't consider to be a proper argument. Dreams activities are suspicious because the probability that any speedrunner gets six consecutive runs with lucks this high or higher is very very very very low.

[@robertjencks3679]

@@pabloweap That's a fair distinction. Though I interpreted their point as the change in "luck" strongly indicates a change in something else i.e. he started cheating. I think the change does actually provide evidence that he started cheating at a particular time. Maybe i just misinterpreted the original comment when i skimmed through

[@TheHuGGhes]

For anyone interested it is very simple code. The astrophysicist is just that, not a coder obviously. (note I used trange which is from the package tqdm so that I could see a progressbar as I did 10million trials, also random, but that is self explanatory) Took about 20 minutes total to do 10,000,000 trials and got 356 such runs. Confirming odds in this video. def coin_flips(consec, attempts, trials): success = 0 for _ in trange(trials): running_total = 0 for _ in range(attempts): if random.randint(0,1): running_total += 1 if running_total >= consec: success += 1 break else: running_total = 0 return (success, success/trials)

[@euclideanspace2573]

Nicely presented. That "PhD" using Monte Carlo Methods weirded me out. Markov Chains is far simpler. This video is very well presented, like one from 3Blue1Brown just without those fancy animations, haha. Look forward to other stuff, I'll give you a sub with my non-gaming account.

[@mathemaniac]

Glad that you enjoy the presentation! The Monte Carlo method is perhaps arguably simpler though in the sense that it doesn't require too much thought to come up with, but obviously the Markov chain method is much better and gives you accurate results.

[@euclideanspace2573]

25:00 lmfao phd

[@euclideanspace2573]

@@mathemaniac I'll have to "restudy" the Monte Carlo method to reach a conclusion, my teacher didn't really like that method. Glossed over it in a day's lecture. He loved Markov Chains and made one of the first assignments about that.

[@mathemaniac]

It depends on what kind of questions you are solving, because sometimes Monte Carlo is the only method when analytic solutions like the theories of Markov chains are not possible. Sometimes it is not a bad method, just that we have to bear the numerical inaccuracies in mind; of course, if there is an analytic solution, I will choose it over numerical methods as long as it is computationally possible.

[@euclideanspace2573]

@@mathemaniac Yeah I agree, I've abused the "numerical integration NIntegrate" command in mathematica several times on functions that can clearly be integrated using various methods (I'm lazy). I'm pretty guilty too.

[@goShinigami]

That's what, in my opinion, the "discussion" over the allegations should be about. Neither Dreams' or the Speedrunning Community's feelings, the opinions of his community or "anti-Dream" people, reason why he could/wouldn't have cheated, possible methods how you could cheat, should matter. This can and should be a purely mathmatics/statistics based discussion. And the odds, even in the best predictions/simulations, are still so so incredibly low. I fear, a lot of people have no idea how rediculous low these numbers are. In "everyday" science, medical trials, psychological experiments (those are the fields I am somewhat familiar with) numbers of that magnitude are unrealistic to say the least. If they invented a new drug for high blood pressure and tested it, comparing it to a conventional drug and a control group to check whether the results of the new drug were significant enough to justify massproducing it and they got those kind of p-values for their tests of significance, the peer review would probably not believe the core data (as in, they faked the measurments to begin with) - because you don't get such significant results in real life. Every reasonable scientist would tell you that with odds that low, there is just no way that this was just pure luck or coincidence, there had to be confounding, underlying mechanisms, correlations etc that haven't been accounted for; or the easiest explaination a la occam's razor: Someone tampered with the drop-chances.

[@mathemaniac]

That's a good point being made! It is very difficult to imagine what million or billion or trillion means - they sound so similar, yet they are vastly different.

[@Buglin_Burger7878]

But what about evolution? To be precise the odds of us existing compared to the rest of the observable universe as we do now. We are on the outside looking onto the inside forgetting we are on even more unlikely odds. The entire Minecraft Speedrunning community is in a flawed paradox as now the better the run is, the more likely you cheat. It has became punishable to get lucky, when you are trying to get lucky. Given that people are going to attempt this likely for generations to come... this means you'll hit a point where you have to draw a line or Dream didn't cheat.

[@RavingPvtRyan]

@@Buglin_Burger7878 I don’t think it is fair to compare the probability of life existing to this situation. The probability for ender pearl trades and blaze rod drops are way more consistent to calculate considering they operate under code.

[@V1Zach]

@@Buglin_Burger7878 there is a difference of real world probability and a games probability. The universe has been around for so long and is so vast many 1-trillion things happen due to a huge amount of things happening. With a game its probability is a set thing therefore its easy to see when it has been manipulated using simulations and such.

[@spiderwings1421]

​@@Buglin_Burger7878 The probability of a conscious life form existing in a random observable universe with random laws of physics is indeed very low, however, only a conscious observer would be able to observe the low probability. Thus meaning we live in a very rare universe, but that isn't surprising since that is the *only* universe we could ever live in.

[@ratiocitopia]

As a maths fanatic who is interested in the drama, I'm glad this got recommended to me. This needs to be recommended to more people! :>>

[@mathemaniac]

Thanks for enjoying it! Commenting on the video does help!

[@Orincaby]

The problem is, Dream fans are around 7-11 years old, so they have no idea what anybody's talking about, and will dislike any video trying to debunk him.

[@Nimaj420]

Listen im 11 and kinda tired of being called idiot over and over again can they from now on take the name "idiots" feel like that is more describing. Also i did understand the whole vid

[@2amanon78]

@@Nimaj420 look if ur 11 and youre not in this category then dont consider feeling offended lol thats just a generalization

[@WinterFlare]

@@Nimaj420 I highly doubt you understand college level maths in elementary school. Secondly, if you’re not in the majority they’re calling out, why are you getting offended over it?

[@Nimaj420]

@@WinterFlare ok you are right i said something pretty cringey there and i dont understand like all of it but im not so dumg i dont understand how big 7.5 trillion is. Also like i kinda know the pythagoras theory i understand if i have a piece of paper: a2+b2 = c2 sry if im wrong thats how i understood also im not english isnt my first language so i have probably wrote everything wrong

[@WinterFlare]

@@Nimaj420 I think most people understand how big 7.5 trillion is, they just feign ignorance because they want their idol to be perfect. Also, Pythagorean theorem is 7th grade math, but knowing how it works and being able to solve for the hypotenuse in right triangles is pretty good for a 5th grader. Also, don’t worry about your English, it sure wasn’t perfect or had proper grammar but I could still understand you.

[@laszloneumann500]

As a famous drama youtuber once said... *"The Dream is over, and the nightmare begins.."*

[@dietcoke5706]

i stopped watching dunkey after he cancelled among us tuesdays, smh not even loyal to his OG fans

[@aleknoev6267]

Famous drama KZbinr my ass

[@lakelurker08]

@@aleknoev6267 well he is a donkey.

[@laszloneumann500]

@@aleknoev6267 pardon, correction: *as the most influential drama youtuber once said....

[@ultimatdanklin1473]

Me bouta name my channel "nightmare" so I get famous:

[@dylanlollar6045]

Extremely amazed at the lack of views. This is remarkably well done, extremely simplified and consumable. Thank you so much for the effort.

[@mathemaniac]

Honestly, this video already receives more views than I hope, so I am not complaining, but thanks so much for the compliment!

[@lilapela]

It has less views than subscribers, so this seems like a promising channel with more videos like this

[@killrs4618]

I nearly failed my math based classes and I still understood most of it

[@squill4883]

As someone who's doing A level maths and further maths and already having their mind boggled by first year stuff I'm just watching this video like *oh noes*

[@kleptomania2631]

Don't worry, most people struggle with a level maths at first and after you develop the foundation you will be able to understand this topic much better. It also contains some content from higher forms of education, so I wouldn't worry that much.

[@iglidor]

Do not worry. It will only get even worse. Like if you will then try to combine statistics with other fields. Pray to all dieties you ever heard of to never have to deal with econometrics (unholy combination of economics+math+statistics)

[@Utopian1234]

Im going to college for astrophysics and I have no clue why he would choose an astrophysicist over a statistician.

[@zoramy9376]

YOU CANT TRICK ME INTO LEARNING IN WINTER BREAK MATH TEACHER.’ But FR great vid

[@Tyler-nr6kl]

The only reason this is a controversy and not a straight issue is because people like Dream's content, and dont get statistics. This is the most cut and dry case of cheating i have ever seen and it makes me genuinely angry to see people defend him, and how people who just explain the math plainly have to preface it with 'i dont hate dream, i just want to show the numbers'. Its wrong. Also, I cant even be mad at him for cheating. If he were just doing it casually, and maybe said 'im gonna do some runs with a heightened drop rate, to see how fast the game could be run in the absence of rng', or if he tried to simulate (key word) the 'perfect rng run', then there'd be no issue. However what he did was cheat in broad daylight, submit his runs as legit, stomp on those who were below his illegitimate time, and then try to deny what he did. Its wrong.

[@unrested7294]

^

[@frozenyogurth]

It's frustrating how people don't understnad just how unfathomably large these numbers are. 7.5 trillion seconds is 237 THOUSAND years. 237 thousand years ago, homo sapiens sapiens BARELY started roaming the earth. The chance that this wasn't a cheated run is,,,,, next to impossible.

[@Tyler-nr6kl]

@@frozenyogurth “but theres a chance! He got lucky!” Yeah and it just so happened to be that he got UNFATHOMABLY lucky MULTIPLE runs in a row by having the two specific items that he complained about drop at crazy rates. I hate this controversy so fucking much

[@sokool3994]

@@frozenyogurth And don't forget, Homo sapiens like us actually only existed around 50,000 years ago. Around 237,000 years ago, the human species was dominated by Homo erectus instead.

[@frozenyogurth]

@@sokool3994 thanks for the correction! And absolutely,,, it's just so ridiculous....

[@theyoutubeaccount8499]

Absolutely incredible video. It reminds me of 3Blue1Brown, which is a huge compliment. You made the math simple and easy for many to understand and I cannot stress how underrated your channel is.

[@mathemaniac]

Thank you so much for the compliment! It means so much!

[@lilapela]

@@mathemaniac Did you use manim to make the animations? It looks like that

[@mathemaniac]

Nope. As said in the description, I will reveal how I do it in a potential subscriber milestone :)

[@escoseslauriestevea.2506]

@@lilapela grant wrote that library right?

[@mohamedmusamustafa3324]

ye i thought that too

[@manchmalpfosten8133]

Dream: Whoops accidentally left cheats on, sorry lads

[@r.j.tammaro8383]

I'm not too well-versed ins statistics and math, but I know a bit about rhetoric and building an argument, and from that standpoint the modteam is much more convincing. Geosquare's video stuck to the facts and stats (even if the statistics shown may be incorrect), used solid evidence for any claims that were outside of logos, and accompanied his findings with a well-edited video with easy to understand graphics. One weakpoint was possibly misinterpreting Dream's words about providing documents and code. However, Dream's argument was not only riddled with Logical fallacies (appeal to authority, red herrings, and ad hominem, just to name a few), but the video was much more difficult to follow and uses intentionally misleading statements or visuals aids. The entire video (visually, at least) is literally just him running on gold blocks while making remarks on how wrong the modteam's 7.5 trillion number was, but nearly neglects to mention until 5 minutes in that each gold block represents 100 million. 1 in 100 million is still a huge number, even if it is much, much smaller, so Dream instead says how far off the number is instead of actually telling us the real number until after he keeps driving home that the mods were 7.4 trillion off. Additionally, 1/3 of the video is completely reliant on evidence from an unnamed, unsourced discord moderator where no evidence was given that they exist, not even screenshots. His argument for that section of the video is literally "one of the dozens of mods thinks I'm innocent and says that the modteam is disorganized, so I must be innocent." It's kind of ridiculous how poor Dream's argument is regardless of whether or not his "astrophysicist," (who is anonymous, writes a research paper in the first person, and probably barley knows a thing about funny cube game) supplied the right data.

[@luigiarcilla940]

Same thoughts with the appeal to authority! Glad I'm not the only one who thought of that.

[@bee5440]

As an old debater his case was pretty terrible

[@irok1]

Very fair

[@Tasneemcommenting]

It's clear you didn't understand what dreams video was even saying if you have an opinion like this. I'm not gonna spend a whole paragraph explaining why you are wrong, but just think about your biases for a second. You are very quick to question the legitimacy and skill of the astrophysicist, but at the same time, you don't even question this youtubers legitimacy and skill. Since you and the youtuber share the same opinion, you think that automatically he is more valid than the astrophysicist , which just isn't sound reasoning. Also, this youtubers numbers are suspiciously similar to the mods, because he thinks exactly like them, and basically does the exact same math as the mods, without acknowledging the critiques the physicist has laid out. The youtubers counter to the physicist was that the mods did it right and that there was no flaw in the math in the first place, which is not an arguement.

[@r.j.tammaro8383]

@@Tasneemcommenting "Im not gonna send a whole paragraph explaining why you're wrong" *proceeds to write a paragraph as to why I'm wrong* This KZbinr isn't presenting any new math to speak of. He's explaining statistics that have already been presented, and explaining it pretty darn well. This ENTIRE CHANNEL is dedicated to explaining math. I never brought up an appeal to authority in my argument for this video and it wouldn't have been an appeal to authority anyways, because I know that he actually knows what he's talking about. The mods can also be trusted because this is what they do as a passion. They've probably reviewed and verified hundreds of speed runs at this point and know the code of Minecraft inside and out because they care about the game and the community. The astrophysict probably doesn't give a single shit about the funny block game.

[@TheSoup222222]

im really into statistics but i have a friend who isnt they wanted to understand all the dream criticisms in regards to speedrunning but i couldnt explain it without doing what was essentially an intro course to probability i showed them this video and it helped them a lot thank you!! :D

[@mathemaniac]

Thanks for sharing this to your friends! Glad that it helps people understand the math behind the whole debacle.

[@chuckyko9384]

"And....that's just a math. A game math." Man this isn't as catchy as game theory catch phrase. By the way, great video. I haven't done math since I started into visual arts career. Thanks for the video.

[@mathemaniac]

Maybe that's because "a math" does not sound right :) Thanks for the appreciation of the video though!

[@dhruvaingale8718]

@@mathemaniac what about "that's just a theory, a math theory"?

[@iamwhoiam-os9df]

Coming back here a few months later and this video is outstanding. I don't care much about the Dream drama but seeing the actual mathematical facts to debunk claims is amazing.