Early Oscar Predictions 2025 | The Winners!

[@KbatzReviews]

More people need to start respecting Guy Pearce. He should have been nominated and won multiple times a long time ago.

[@Tyler_W]

He should've at least been considered as far back as L.A. Confidential.

[@jhamdan2012]

@@Tyler_W He will win this time. He's the strongest in best supporting actor.

[@rocky5000100]

From what I've seen and heard his character maybe too unlikeable to win. Though I agree Guy Pearce has been underrated for far too long.

[@KbatzReviews]

@@rocky5000100 The likeable performance element is a slippery slope. A character can be unlikeable and that shouldn't detract from the performance as recognized. Swinging the opposite way doesn't work - when you award what is a bad performance just because the character/actor is likeable. Likability shouldn't be a factor either way. Guy Pearce is not interested in playing merely likeable characters, which is probably why he hasn't won anything major. He excels at gray and pain, and there isn't a lot of that being done in Hollywood right now. His performance in Brimstone was excellent, downright despicable, hated him, He deserved awards there, too. 🤣🤣

[@dj71162]

And by "should have been nominated", you mean L.A. Confidential and Memento - films that he didn't receive any major nominations for. I'm not sure how you can say someone "should have been nominated" if they received literally no momentum to do so. What about the five that got in ahead of him? Did they not deserve to get in despite getting numerous precursor nominations? I'm not trying to take this out on you personally, but it just bugs me when people put out arbitrary statements that an actor they like should get nominated, despite not even seeing at least five other potential nominees.

[@imangelinayoujennifer]

The substance need to win at least one!! Show some respect to horror Oscar!!

[@LDavDT33]

Well, Makeup will definitely win, but I feel like the substance could win something else.

[@shadysorkin9214]

It will likely win makeup and that's it.

[@jonathanvelazquezph.d.2719]

🤭

[@marrmart7690]

The audiance love film and come back to demmy moore but still the role not oscarian as horror and low budget film good to win in drama not in horror becase look so cheap as a cinematography

[@MTVEUROPEDEEPFAKES]

agreed!!!

[@matthewplampton955]

The Substance and Demi's performance is the 1st time in a long time I've been excited to be in the cinema.

[@MTVEUROPEDEEPFAKES]

@@matthewplampton955 the same

[@matthewplampton955]

@@MTVEUROPEDEEPFAKES Like I appreciate the other films and their work but it's all very same same. The dark rom com, the bio pic, the formulaic musical...

[@karolinaalvarez2673]

@@matthewplampton955 No, no es igual y lo sabes.

[@tylerkochman1007]

I am so here for the comeback of Demi Moore to prestige film. I truly love that we now have casting and writing that allow for her to make this comeback in her early 60s. Which also gives me hope that Winona Ryder can still have an Oscar win ahead of her

[@jeffbassin630]

Nothing would make me happier than to see Best Actress going to either Demi Moore or Angelina Jolie, in that order.

[@FrakkinToasterLuvva]

The Academy hasn't really cared about the fact that an actor has already won an Oscar (or two!) in the same category if they really liked their performance, at least in the last decade.

[@marrmart7690]

And academy give the oscar to the best not to the favorite

[@AkbarJr-p1h]

Yes After what happened this year with Emma Stone. I don’t think the Academy Member cared about it. Remember when Mcdorman won her THIRD Oscar 2 years after her Second..

[@axr7149]

@@AkbarJr-p1h You do realize that Katharine Hepburn won her 2nd and 3rd in consecutive years, right? Also, like McDormand, 3 of the 4 Oscars that Hepburn won all came after turning 60 (both of them won their 2nd at age 60 in fact). McDormand also has 4 Oscars actually, although one of them in her case is as producer.

[@merveben4753]

yeah and he won over 20 years ago lol no one cares

[@marqueswayne31]

It's more of a factor if it's between two strong contenders and one hasn't won. If it's a slam dunk performance that stands alone it doesn't matter. It's also rare that they're years apart (most people with two win both within 5 -10 years when they're on a roll) but people like Hopkins and McDormand have proven it can happen in recent years. That said, I don't think Brody will win again especially for similar subject matter. Fiennes is probably the one to beat.

[@warrenguy76]

18:22 if Timothée wins, he will be the youngest Best Actor of all time. He was born 12/27/95, and would be about 29 and two months during the telecast 3/02/25, thus he would be 10,658 days old if he wins. Adrien, born 4/14/73, was 29 and almost 30 since during the telecast on 3/23/03. He was 10,935 days old with trophy in hand. 😊

[@glomgold25]

It may be a longshot, but I really am gunning for Demi Moore for best actress. There has to be something said about a performance that conveys that kind of depth and emotion without an over abundance of dialogue.

[@johnnolan5579]

So unfortunate Dennis Villeneuve is not the front runner for director. His work is amazing. I'm not on the Anora bandwagon, and have yet to see The Brutalist.

[@morpeur]

I want Denis Villeneuve please 🙏

[@MTVEUROPEDEEPFAKES]

So sad The Substance is the best movie of the year. But we know how Oscar sucks.

[@colettecarroll9371]

True that. I kinda hoped years ago that the Oscars “grew up” when Silence of the Lambs won, but I was wrong.

[@bstk565]

It's the best to your taste, the rest of the world doesn't need to agree with you. The Universe doesn't revolve around you, did you know that ?

[@yermi_perlmannnn]

my winner for some categories like acting and directing/ picture are Best Picture : Anora Director: Brady Corbet , The Brutalist Actress : Mikey Madison , Anora Actor: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown Supporting Actress: Ariana Grande, Wicked Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin , A Real Pain Original Screenplay : Anora Adapted Screenplay: Conclave

[@tashkenty]

I think lead actor is Ralph fiennes, he’s overdue. For lead actress I want Demi Moore to win, she’s overdue as well.

[@nazacara4367]

I think besides Best Picture, the most competitive category is Best Actress. I mean, we have the incredible Mikey Madison but we also have Demi's "comeback", Cynthia too who need the Oscar to be an EGOT, Angelina who is playing Maria Callas, so its kinda complicated to predict (at least for me)

[@marrmart7690]

You think academy will not choose maria callas story and give prostitue make love with stupid boy all the film the oscar

[@AlexandreFilho1705]

i don't see anyone taking it from Mikey Madison. i don't even have Demi Moore and Angelina Jolie in my nominees prediction. Cynthia Erivo, Nicole Kidman and Karla Sofia Gascon are in. Kate Winslet is campaigning HARD.

[@dylanluffy334]

​@@AlexandreFilho1705 no

[@ImmortalBroken]

I don't think Wicked being part one will affect Ariana. It seems pretty understood that she's the standout of this movie. Cynthia's strongest stuff will be in part two, so a win for her would be weird and could maybe affect her nomination chances.

[@AlexandreFilho1705]

i thought this could hurt Cynthia's chance of getting the nomination, but so far she got nominated everywhere. i think she's locked for the nom.

[@juanmanuelmisagno7750]

I really hope Demi Moore win the Oscar❤

[@dylanluffy334]

No

[@fabriciobetto7502]

Hi from Brazil! Most of the competitive movies didn t premiered here yet, but we are obviously rooting for i m steel here and fernanda torres. And i also loved the substance!

[@hariannevasconcelos1237]

Sem chance. Acorda

[@mrfarreinheit9642]

Demi must win for me

[@paulnelson7525]

No.

[@shadysorkin9214]

She's not even the best actress in the movie let alone of the year.

[@jonathanvelazquezph.d.2719]

🤔

[@MTVEUROPEDEEPFAKES]

Agree. Demi !❤

[@rayluxhove]

@@shadysorkin9214 did you even watch it...

[@-Jimini-]

Istg, if Isabella Rossellini wins for one scene where she goes “Hey, that person’s right” I’m going to cry

[@MrJose72289]

@-Jimini- istg. Can you elaborate? What do these letters mean?

[@joymartin4640]

@@MrJose72289 I swear to god

[@taylortrash]

i know Dune 2 won’t win best picture but it was def the best movie of the year

[@frankg7574]

Isn’t he making a dune part 3? If so that is where they will reward Dune

[@taylortrash]

@ not yet

[@rayluxhove]

nope

[@filmfreak21]

Demi morre deserves it

[@Gavin48]

Nah she's a runner up to Madison. Demi sadly doesn't do anything in The Substance that tops the last 10 mins of Anora

[@rayluxhove]

@@Gavin48 anora wasn't that good... Madison was overdramatic and not classy

[@KevinMcArdle-l6e]

If Kieran Culkin and Adrien Brody don't win, I'll be pissed

[@warrenguy76]

Zoe Saldaña? Bingo!

[@aristostoique]

I definitely don't understand all the buzz around Emilia Perez, i watched it twice to be sure, but the movie despite a great filming is mid at best, without the "trans" factor of Sofia, it's pointless ? Speaking of her, with the many (it's understable) plastic surgeries she had, she doesn't show that much emotion, Zoe Zaldana is the true jewel of the movie 100% ! And Mikey Madison in Anora just delivers a raw, incredible performance, remind me of a young Gena Rowland !

[@luismiguelcuervo8885]

No one can understand

[@marrmart7690]

Emilia perez good screenplay same dr jecyll and mr hyde and how some one want to change his past by trans surgery to be kind wonen after he was bad man

[@Nishanth_mementomori]

I completely agree the trans woman doesn't show any emotions on her botox filled face

[@vins1979]

Emilia Perez is not only hugely overrated, but to me it is also a hugely offensive movie for (a) mexican people, (b) the trans community, and (c) the musical genre.

[@jonathanvelazquezph.d.2719]

🧐

[@1.0.10.9]

I think Ariana is the best among contenders and should win,because*,we don't know how Wicked Part 2 is going to do with critics and audience,i never saw the original musical so i don't know if Glinda is goin' to be on pair with Cynthia in screentime not to mention all the money the producers might put in publicity and campaign,also,another favorite performance in every category shows up,Davine Joy Randolph was only 25 minutes in The Holdovers and still she beats all the BSA winners and nominees since maybe Lupita Nyong'o or Anne Hathaway,with honorable mentions to Florence Pugh,Laurie Metcalf,Jennifer Jason Leigh,Kirsten Dunst and other nominees that deserved to win,but they were hurt by all the hype surrounding Dern,Janney,Vikander and DeBose

[@marrmart7690]

You think realy academy will give wicked and anora best leading and supporting acting.. last year academy snubbe parpi and give annete benneng respect

[@1.0.10.9]

@@marrmart7690 So when did i say anything about Anora,i couldn't care less about that movie,i don't even want Mikey Madison to win,i like her,she was great in it as well in Scream 5 and OUATIH,there's a big difference between who you think and who should win,Marianne Jean Baptiste is my pick to win and Demi in 2nd place,but at least in my humble opinion,Ariana doesn't have any real competition in BSA,voters don't care about it in the same level as leading,yes i enjoyed Deadwyler,Lyonne,Chen,Qualley,Elle Fanning,Carol Kane,Michele Austin but no other supporting performance got me as Grande's performance,the woman gives everything,comedy,melodrama,terrific vocals and when it comes to the Golden Globe nominees,embarrassing,how are any of these 5 nominees,award worthy except for Margaret

[@1.0.10.9]

@@marrmart7690 PD.Sorry if my answer to your comment was too long

[@billcook4768]

Assuming they stick to the Broadway book, Wicked definitely becomes more Elphaba’s story in the second act.

[@Tricki_Woo]

Fernanda Torres should be nominated for best actress for her phenomenal performance in I’m still here.

[@marrmart7690]

I hope academy give the best nomnation not the favorite of audiance

[@Fall-oo6mt]

​@@marrmart7690 Fernanda Torres is the best though.

[@andyroo9381]

It might be a good idea to show a graphic of all the categories, and your winner picks, at the very end as a recap.

[@Jayson-c5q]

And a recap of how well he did last year as well.

[@doiewinwin2390]

My Early Oscar Prediction: Picture: Anora Director: Sean Baker Actor: Adrien Brody or Timothee Chalamet Actress: Mikey Madison or Marianne Jean-Baptiste Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin Supporting Actress: Ariana Grande Adapted Screenplay: Conclave Original Screenplay: A Real Pain or Anora

[@je8607]

Honestly, I think Ariana Grande should win…only because, Glinda is iconic and when we look back 25 years from now, that performance will be the only one we remember from this category. Sometimes it’s just that simple. I would love to see a Rossellini win though.

[@tashkenty]

I think it’s Zoe Saldana

[@JamesFrew1]

No way it’s a better performance than Saldaña

[@dead_ringerz]

i did not like anora :( BP of the year for me was dune part 2 and the substance in a close second

[@brickellrich1]

I’m really taken aback by how the too timely and hyper political nature of The Apprentice might effect Jeremy Strong in supporting actor. Brian doesn’t even mention him. Another likely victim of Apprentice’s obvious groan-inducing nature - for many people - is obviously Sebastian Stan. Where is he in the conversation? Answer: hopefully in A Different Man. I was absolutely riveted by his performance in that movie, and it’s dramatically better than his work in Apprentice. I’m truly hoping a little bit of momentum picks up for Stan and A Different Man.

[@jonathanvelazquezph.d.2719]

Only in a just world

[@AkbarJr-p1h]

Seriously guys you think Rosellini deserves to win an oscar for basically 1 min dialogue and gone for the rest of the film? It will hurt to see Saldana, Grande or Jones lose after gave it a monumental performance

[@axr7149]

If Beatrice Stright could win for literally 5 minutes of screen time (the recordholder for the shortest screen time ever to win any acting Oscar), why not her? Besides, her mother is a legendary 3-time Oscar winner herself (Ingrid Bergman). Also, she would be at least winning the right category too.

[@kashoot4782]

@@axr7149but I didn’t think Rosellini was even a standout of the movie tbh unlike Beatrice Straight who was firing on all cylinders

[@tyrellf1579]

Most of the category this year is Category Fraud. Ain't no way Saldana should be in supporting category.

[@rayluxhove]

I agree, I think even grande would beat her

[@kennethtravels7715]

If you see Wicked second act, Glinda is barely in the the second act compared to part 1.

[@harrymargarson7709]

Hello, I have only really got into films this year and love your channel. If a film wins adapted or original screenplay, is it not extremely likely that one of those two films will go on to win best picture? Thanks, Harry

[@IvanJose-p3e]

Picture: Anora (For that, that’s what I feel take it but from the public’s own response but personally I’d choose Conclave or Dune Part 2) Director: Sean Baker Actor: Adrian Brody or Ralph Fiennes (I’d be happy for either one of them) Actress: Demi Moore Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin Supporting Actress: Ariana Grande Adapted Screenplay: Dune Part 2 or Conclave Original Screenplay: A Real Pain

[@CallumMyers1995]

My current predictions: Picture: Anora Director: Sean Baker Actress: Mikey Maddison Actor: Adrien Brody Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldaña Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin Original Screenplay: Anora Adapted Screenplay: Conclave

[@marrmart7690]

I agree with zoe saldana but her role long as lead actross. But you think mikey maddison better than tilda swinton and anglina jolle and marriane jean paptiste or cate winslet

[@jamielee7943]

My Oscar predictions are: Adapted Screenplay - Conclave Original Screenplay - Anora Supporting Actor - Guy Pearce Supporting Actress - Zoe Saldana Lead Actor - Adrien Brody Lead Actress - Mikey Madison Director - Brady Corbet Picture - The Brutalist I could see The Brutalist winning Picture & Director but I can’t see Anora winning for both. My gut is telling me that it’ll probably be split - Corbet for Director & Anora for Picture. Which would be fine by me. But I chose The Brutalist for Picture because I think in all departments the filmmaking is so freaking undeniable & impressive that I believe it deserves Best Picture.

[@AntsTheaterCorner2698]

If Wicked wins best picture, it will pull a Chicago and pull massive upsets with the Oscars, especially if it does well at the critics Choice Awards, which I do see. The critics Choice Awards and especially the technical guilds will be all over that film.

[@filmnoirpic]

Supporting Actress is in total flux and that's when surprises can happen, i.e. Jamie Lee Curtis. Isabella Rossellini like JLC, Laura Dern, has the lineage.

[@jonathanblaze1648]

1. Best Picture Anora 2. Director The Brutalist 3. Actor Brody 4. Actress Madison 5. S Actor Culkin 6. S Actress Grande

[@axr7149]

I'm not convinced Grande will win, mainly because of her pop music persona. If Lady Gaga couldn't win, what makes you certain Ariana would? Cher had to work a few years as an actress before winning, and the only singer to win an acting prize on the first go was Barbra Streisand (who won in a tie with Katharine Hepburn it is worth noting).

[@roxy5588]

I do think Ariana Grande will probably win the Oscar in 2026 in Supporting Actress for Wicked: For Good. Brian I agree with you on this. I think Zoe will win as she has the narrative. My predictions are: Picture - The Brutalist Director - Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) Best Actress - Mikey Madison (Anora) Best Actor - Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) or Ralph Finnes (Conclave) Best Supporting Actress - Zoe Saldana (Emelia Perez) Best Supporting Actor - Kieren Culkan (A Real Pain) Best Adapted Screenplay (Conclave) Best Original Screenplay (Anora)

[@matthewplampton955]

The 2nd half of Wicked doesn't have any big moments for Glinda. It's all front half loaded for that character.

[@juicebuko]

@@matthewplampton9552nd half has Thank Goodness . Im excited how Ariana will be doing that since the shift of emotions there could be a big moments

[@caseyleemoore]

@@matthewplampton955Part 2 has Thank Goodness, I’m Not That Girl(reprise), For Good, and the finale. Big emotional moments for her. And there’s a new song for Glinda. I think she’s gonna surprise people with how deep she can get emotionally.

[@matthewplampton955]

@caseyleemoore fair just in the stage musical Glinda feels fairly ancillary to Elphaba in the 2nd half hence why Idina won the Tony

[@nealdavis6374]

I have been waiting for many years for Sean Baker to get major recognition. His films are unlike anything else. No fantasy, just reality and he always directs his cast to stellar heights.

[@TheGreatestVoice1958]

Pearce won the cinema vanguard and he’s won several other critics awards. Boston most recently.

[@ArmandoGarcia-ci7el]

Adrien Brody, Mikey Madison, Kieran Culkin and Zoe Saldana are gonna win. But my favorite is Demi Moore, I'm rooting for her

[@OpticalSorcerer]

Just waiting for the Oscars to give more acting noms to people in fantasy, sci-fi, and action films. It's not very common; the genre doesn't diminish the performance.

[@oscarman42]

At this point in time I think Wicked will only win a few in the technical categories.

[@Kevin-rg3yc]

I always predicted that was gonna be the case from the jump in fact I don’t even think neither Cynthia or Ariana will be nominated

[@jurney3478]

Feeling that too. That part 1 in the title doesn't help and the movie is nowhere near as big internationally as it is in the states.

[@namiz05]

@@Kevin-rg3yc Ariana Grande and Zoe Saldana are the front runners lol

[@bizbaby]

Yeah I don’t see Wicked winning any performance categories besides the best Song. I can easily see defying gravity winning that one. I just want Cynthia and Ariana to be nominated

[@harmenmoes9138]

​@@bizbabyIt's not eligible for song, lol

[@vitord2005]

The difference between Debose + Hudson and Ariana Grande is that the other two roles are essentially dramatic and both have at least one big crying scene... Ariana is a comical performance. I think that, combined with the fact that she is better known as a pop star than as an actress, will stop her chances of winning. I still believe in Zoe for a supporting actress. As for best actress, I still think Mikey is TOO young and unknown to the general public to win so easily. Lawrence and Stone, for exemple, already had previous nominations, in addition to being protagonists in box office hits. Mikey, besides a small role in Tarantino's film, is only known for Scream... The only thing that still makes me believe in a possible victory is the fact that Demi would never win for The Substance and Angelina is slowly sinking. She doesn't even won a critics award yet. Batiste is in a small film with the smallest distributor. Erivo I think it's VERY unlikely given the genre of the film. Wicked would have to overcome a lot, and potentially take best picture, to ensure the green witch's victory. I see Karla sinking too, just like Jolie. Nicole Kidman losing her CC nomination makes me wonder about her real chances. Best actress is, so far, the biggest unknown. I need to see some televised awards to place my bet.

[@stevewoon6157]

Nicole is always not popular among the critics

[@mrkelso]

The Academy is not going to give Best Picture to a comedy romance about a hooker and a Russian oligarch. I don't think they will be able to stop themselves from giving Best Picture to Conclave, considering the particular sociopolitical twist in that movie. It's just too on-the-nose for 2024 to have Conclave in the books as Best Picture.

[@CarlosPenaSuarez]

agree with your complete choice. 👏 but let’s remember that academy tries to shock us sometimes like back in 2023 with CODA. I think Emilia Perez also has a choice in best picture but I wish Anora or The Brutalist or even Conclave could win best picture.

[@SleepFan771]

Picture: Anora Director: Brady Corbet Actor: Adrien Brody Actress: Mikey Madison Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin Supporting Actress: Ariana Grande Adapted Screenplay: Conclave Original Screenplay: Anora

[@francescocendron]

I think you are underestimating Ralph Fiennes

[@cadillacdeville5828]

I'm going to be surprised however this plays out...

[@raj2tennis]

Anora does not have a wide release. So this is all hype. IF they do not release the movie on a subscription service. Not many Academy voters will see it. This is what generated HBO. Demi Moore will get something because of her helping with Bruce. I think John Lithgow is going to be nominated. His character is the catalyst for all that happens in the Conclave. I am still hoping they see Blitz.

[@marrmart7690]

Anora why she get nomnation or win she just make love all the film and she fight with body guard

[@Kylie-k6w]

the academy doesn’t really care about wide releases? they are all able to see anora (and every single movie nominated) easily.

[@Kylie-k6w]

if you are in the academy you get access to an app that has essentially every movie released that year. you really think academy members are going the theatre & paying to see all the films?

[@manzoman96]

Idk I liked Conclave more than Anora lol

[@jonathanvelazquezph.d.2719]

Conclave rules and might be the consensus pick

[@megham11]

Yeah I don't really get the Anora hype. It was fine but pales in comparison to some of Baker's other work, like The Florida Project imo...

[@AkbarJr-p1h]

I dont understand why so many people obsessed with Anora. I saw the movie and I was like it’s a nice one, funny and entertaining but not special or have something that give me best picture vibe. IDK maybe im just an amateur that dont understand this movie.

[@Luneland]

​@@AkbarJr-p1hI don't get the hype with many movies this year. Anora was ok. Conclave's ending made me laugh. Dune 2 was ok. Emilia Perez is almost laughable. I'm not the audience for wicked and I had to stop watching after an hour. I still need to watch The Brutalist. The Maria callas angelina Jolie movie was like Maestro, lame. I don't know. The substance is the only interesting movie I've seen this year.

[@francescocendron]

Loved both but I prefered conclave too

[@marvingro7959]

Guy Pearce needs to win "Best Supporting Actor".

[@MTVEUROPEDEEPFAKES]

I do not understand Anora admiration. I found it just OK stars. I would.not even nominate it. So low bar for Cannes to give it Palme d'Or. The cinematography and Yura Borisov are great. Everything else.. eeh..

[@marrmart7690]

I agree with you anora i dont know why film dont show us in the rest of film conflict beetwen russian family and sex worker about son and husband they show us stupud conflict btween her and body gaurd

[@AkbarJr-p1h]

Best Picture- The Brutalist Best Director- Brady Corbet Best Actress- Mikey Madison Best Actor- Adrien Brody Best Supporting Actress- Felicity Jones Best supporting actor- Guy Pearce Original Screenplay- The Brutalist Adapted screenplay- Conclave In my opinion The Brutalist Basically will over perform this year oscar and Im fine with it. that movie is the definition of MONUMENTAL

[@SlenWash]

Do you really think they'll give 3 acting Oscars to the same movie when that already happened 2 years prior and has only happened 3 times in Oscar history? I can see 2 of them winning but 3 is extremely unlikely.

[@eyow3n]

is the brutalist released? i cant seem to find it anywhere

[@AkbarJr-p1h]

@@SlenWash I strongly believe that, at the end of the day, Brody and Pearce will take home the gold trophy-they were simply brilliant in the film. Jones delivered a performance that can't be ignored; she was stellar. Unfortunately, the supporting actress category has somewhat overlooked her performance, but I'm confident she'll win the BAFTA and probably the SAG Award, which will likely help her secure the Oscar

[@SlenWash]

@@AkbarJr-p1h I guess we'll have to see how it plays out.

[@DragonPrincessAoife]

Am I the only one who does not get Anora?

[@DaveNetWorld]

No, you're not the only one. I enjoyed Anora for what it was, but it's not the kind of story material that wins Best Picture. The movie doesn't say anything substantial.

[@DragonPrincessAoife]

@DaveNetWorld i think the performance is great but that's it

[@OMEGAROB246]

Historically speaking, haven’t heaps of best actress winners been in their 20s? I feel like that’s very common. Best actor is more common to be winners in their 40s

[@GregoryCooper-eh6yk]

Your are correct about Isabella Rosellini not being enough in the film. Don't get me wrong, Isabella Rosellini is priceless and makes anything she is in better....however....the role she played in Conclave could have been played by MANY other actresses equally as good, and we would have not missed anything. I just feel that an Oscar win performance is done by a performer that overtakes a role and makes it their own.

[@scpatl4now]

I think Dune 2 will do much better than you are thinking

[@vajinderkaursamra8075]

I want that too

[@elizabethmusto5349]

I think there's way too much hype around Anora and Madison. I'd like to see Conclave and Kidman win in these categories.

[@TheCatIndeed]

I agree with most of your winner predictions, save for Supporting Actress, and that’s obviously a toss up at the moment, but Denzel Washington is absolutely not number 2 in Best Supporting Actor, he’s 4 at best. He’s not going to get the BAFTA nomination, his movie is going to underperform, and he’s even a possibility to get snubbed, which is not the case at all for Guy Pearce.

[@jonathanvelazquezph.d.2719]

True

[@joymartin4640]

I'd love to see Demi win Best Actress

[@Tricki_Woo]

Marianne Jean Baptiste in Hard Truths was magnificent❤️

[@marrmart7690]

❤good critics choice give her nomnation but so bad they give wicked and anora best actross nom They give nomnation for audiance not for the best

[@therealangelosettler]

Adapted: dune Original: Perez Supporting actor: Culkin Supporting actress: Zoe Actor: Timothy Actress: Angelina or Demi Director: conclave Picture: brutalist

[@merveben4753]

dune isn't winning anything lol

[@therealangelosettler]

@merveben4753 lmao the first one won a bunch of technical awards and this is better so it's winning those again but in the top right you might be right lol

[@1marcelo]

@@merveben4753 Not true. Dune part 2 already won 37 awards out of 148 nominations

[@ColtonMyers1]

I’d have to disagree about Ariana being more prime to win for Wicked Part 2. Part 1 (Act 1) really is G(a)linda’s moment to shine as a character and has her best bits (comedic wise). Plus, Act 1 is where she starts to really develop as a character. Act 2 is a much more mature Glinda, where the focus shifts more towards Elphaba and Fiyero. I also think Act 1 is much stronger than Act 2, in general. I also don’t know why Wicked would be such a shocker - Wicked is primed to be the most competitive musical since Chicago; it harkens to the golden era, where musicals routinely excelled at the Oscars.

[@friendlypup5650]

Pearce is definitely runner up. He might win if a real pain misses best picture

[@darrylgaines2540]

I’m the ONLY person who finds Culkn repulsive

[@KhooHockLeong]

Brutalidy is something like Gangs of New Yorrk so not likely to win Director and Picture. But Best Actor for Adrian Brody is a sure thing as there is no better alternative Amelia Perez is like Cabaret . It can win Best Director. Anora is like Klute. I do not think it can win Best Picture. Conclave is a do so movie. Not likely to win Best Picture. A Complete Unknown might well win Best Picture. Something like Green Book where there is a musician involved.

[@JustJudithhh]

Anora just doesn’t give best picture

[@ahuman.2065]

True, bc it's simple

[@jesusynfante5249]

At all. Not even actress, specially knowing that The Academy is NOW taking into consideration a lot of other factors in special categories, depending on the nominees. We’ll see.

[@signatureroles]

Screenplay adapted always is a surprise. Original rarely.

[@frankchan5547]

The Academy should judge performances purely on the merit of the performance, not- whether it is likely to stand the test of time; Who is overdue; Who has best back story; Who campaigns hardest; Who campaigns too hard; Whether it fits Oscar bait- real bio pic, about movies, transformational role, disability or discriminated person; Who has won before; Who has been nominated but not won and career is near its end; Which performance they saw most recently; Which win would signal virtue for Academy; Who has paid their dues and doesn't do lesser or popular movies or is mostly tv; Who won last year and was criticised; Who we can give an honorary one instead.

[@DaveNetWorld]

This is my favorite time of year Brian, so much speculation before things start to steamroll. These are my picks based on my gut right now, obviously these will change when we start to see industry winners & nominations. I will include options on alternatives if they apply. Best Picture: Conclave - Anora could possibly win but I just don't think there's enough weight to the subject matter. The Brutalist would be my third choice. Conclave seems the safest choice, it's topical and it's an easy watch. I'll be paying close attention, if Conclave over performs in nominations, picking up categories like Supporting Actor, Cinematography & Costume Design that might point towards its win. Best Director: Brady Corbet - This is the directorial achievement of the year outside of Dune 2 in my opinion. Oh how I wish Denis Villeneuve would be nominated, but I have this sneaky suspicion he'll be overlooked again. Best Actress: Angelina Jolie - She's playing a real life person. I feel like this might be a Renée Zellweger type situation for Judy, the movie doesn't get much love elsewhere but the performance is undeniable. Mikey Madison is right up there but again she's playing a sex worker & she is undeniably very young. Look out for Fernanda Torres if she is nominated. There's a lot of love for I'm Still Here. She could be a surprise win like Marion Cotillard for La Vie En Rose if there isn't a consensus front runner. Best Actor: Adrian Brody - This is between him & Timothée Chalamet. He does give the best performance of the year, but like you said Timothée Chalamet is playing a real life person. However, he's still quite young & this is only his second nomination (should be his third after being overlooked for Beautiful Boy). However, I think this will be like last year with Emma Stone, Adrian Brody's performance is too undeniable to ignore. Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldaña - This is between her & Ariana Grande. I'm going with the veteran here. Ariana Grande feels like Ryan Gosling from last year. It is also her first big movie role & the first part of two movies. I think this is the category where they honor Emilia Perez. Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin - I think this is the easiest of the acting categories to predict. My second choice would be Guy Pearce, but the character he plays is very unlikeable. Adapted Screenplay: Conclave - Like you said the screenplay categories seem the easiest to predict. If this is going to be Anora vs. Conclave it most definitely needs to win here and it will; the easier of the two screenplay categories to predict. Original Screenplay: Anora - The only other movie that I think has a shot here is A Real Pain. Anora feels like Promising Young Woman. This would also be a way of rewarding Sean Baker if he's runner up in Best Director. Also, if my predictions in Picture & Actress pan out this would be the category to honor Anora in. Anora doesn't have a chance to win Best Picture without a win here.

[@zhunn484]

I think EEAAO really shook up my expectations for what the Academy will award best picture. So i could see Anora doing it.

[@adityanimmalapudi2880]

My picks Best Picture: Anora or The Brutalist or Dune: Part 2 or Emilia Perez Best Director: Brady Corbet or Dennis Villnenuve or Jacques Audriard Best Lead Actor: Adrien Brody Best Lead Actress: Karla Sofia Gascon or Mikey Madison Best Supporting Actor: Keiran Culkin or Clarence Maclin or Guy Pierce or Denzel Washington Best Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldana Best Animated film: The Wild Robot Best Foreign film: Emilia Perez Best Original Score: The Brutalitist Best Original Song: Mi Camino Best Original Screenplay: Anora Best Adapted Screenplay: Dune: Part 2 or Emilia Perez or Sing Sing Best Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Costume, Makeup & Hairstyle, Sound, Visual Effects: Dune: Part 2

[@HissingMovieReviews]

Stanley Tucci could get a nod for Best Supporting Actor

[@Tricki_Woo]

Yura Borisov or Guy Pearce would win for best supporting actor

[@Jayson-c5q]

I don’t get the “Brody already won an Oscar” argument when Stone received her 2nd Oscar last year with just a 7-year gap. Loved Anora, but it just doesn’t seem like a film that the Academy (even with more diverse members) would reward. I think the battle is actually between The Brutalist v Conclave.

[@frankg7574]

Even since the 2000’s, they’ve rewarded Sean Penn (Mystic River, Milk) & Daniel Day Lewis (There Will Be Blood, Lincoln) twice in Lead Actor categories.

[@AntsTheaterCorner2698]

Yeah. When have films about sex workers ever really struck a chord with the academy. Look at all the films that were previously nominated, not many regarding sex workers because the subject matter is so touchy and can make many very uncomfortable, especially these Academy voters that want something that makes them either feel good or move them emotionally. That's why inora isn't the best picture lock that everybody believes it is. I think it's either the brutalist or Wicked. I say Wicked because conclave is a religious drama that goes against the values of the academy since they really don't handle religious subject matter well. Even if it gets screenplay nomination, it probably won't win compared to something like the brutalist which has been doing very well which has been doing very well. Back to Anora, sex worker films have not fared well with the academy and it's like if fifty shades of Gray was nominated for an Oscar for best picture. It's just too far out there and doesn't make any sense. Let me know what you think.

[@vitord2005]

Adrien Brody is not Emma Stone. Emma is a more active actress than Adrien, and she has had some nominations for important awards with other films between one victory and another. She is an actress who has never left the awards circle, who had a general concession that at some point in her career she would win a second Oscar. Brody doesn't. I see Adrien more with a trajectory similar to that of Renée Zellweger, but for that to happen he needs to sweep all the precursors.

[@AntsTheaterCorner2698]

@vitord2005 He hasn't been sweeping all the precursors, it's a toss-up between him, Chalamet and Coleman Domingo whom I haven't seen one a single acting award thus far.

[@davidcortes9159]

Great prediction video! But don't underestimate Emilie Perez. I think it can win big time at the Oscars, including Best actress and Best movie.

[@Sara01977]

Putting Zoe in supporting actress rather than lead actress would tick me off as someone voting. I think it’s messed up to steal that from Ariana Grande. Don’t get me wrong: I think Zoe is fantastic but she should be in lead. I know they don’t want her going up sharing Sofia but I don’t think Sofia should be in lead. She’s ok in the movie but it’s Zoe that shines and so they should’ve put her in lead. I think other voters may feel the same as it’s shady practice to get more noms.

[@filmfreak21]

Would love if conclave takes picture

[@jonathanvelazquezph.d.2719]

Yes

[@trao1938]

I think "Conclave" is Ralph Fiennes' best work to date-. His performance made what could have otherwise been a dull story incredibly intense and suspenseful. It's neither a showy or subdued performance. However, it's meticulously layered with powerful emotion- which is one of most difficult types of performances to get right. Like Hopkins in "The Father," Fiennes can deliver an entire monologue with just his eyes.

[@jonatassf92]

Fernanda Torres deserves a nomination for Best Actress (“I’m Still Here”) and, perhaps, even a win. It was an impeccable performance, above average.

[@MrJose72289]

You thinking ariana is New to the theater scene is laughable 😂

[@jonathanvelazquezph.d.2719]

I was thinking about that too

[@alicoicyho]

he meant that was her first big movie especially for award season not broadway or media

[@user-CatherineDodd]

Marianne Jean Baptiste tour de force performance in Hard Truths should win for best actress.

[@annanikia7949]

I was looking forward to this!❤

[@bpure2560]

Stanley Tucci or Guy Pearce could win Best Supporting Actor. Isabella Rossellini has a lot of momentum to win Best Supporting Actress at the moment. If Tucci and Rossellini win, it could be awarded for their bodies of work and being overlooked over many years. Like when other actors like Al Pacino and Sandra Bullock won. They won for performances that weren't their best. Chalamet will be 29 if he wins. The same age as Brody when he won.

[@LDavDT33]

Tucci if he doesn't get that SAG or BAFTA nomination he definitely won't get the nomination

[@bpure2560]

@@LDavDT33 Brits love Tucci because he's practically an adopted Brit and lives in London.

[@FrakkinToasterLuvva]

Stanley Tucci won't be nominated, and predicting him for a win is completely insane. What's up with those Stanley Tucci nomination predictions? His role is not even the most memorable supporting male performance in Conclave. I would argue it's not even top 3.

[@user-CatherineDodd]

Got that right!

[@jonathanvelazquezph.d.2719]

👀

[@user-CatherineDodd]

Not mentioning Marianne Jean-Baptiste and Fernanda Torres for best actress consideration to win is very telling.

[@andreuboada]

I went to see the Wicked movie with my dad today. He doesn’t like musicals, he’s really old now and is very special and picky, he gets frustrated and angry very quickly. Still, he was SO MOVED by Cynthia’s performance. It made me cry seeing how much he was enjoying the movie because I think it’s been a long time since I’ve seen him that happy in the movie theater. Afterwards, he said that he liked the movie quite a bit and that it was impressive and has never “seen something so spectacular”. I think we should respect the other great performances of 2024, but Wicked has got to be the frontrunner of almost every award. If it’s not given proper recognition, it will feel so frustrating and sad.

[@makeithappenwithenglish1648]

Dont bother, kidman and brody will win lead actress and actor. Kidman strategically will release babygirl in december when it will build the strongest monentum

[@amosperrine1909]

So, as one of the screenplays goes on to take picture, will it be Anora or Conclave?

[@marrmart7690]

I dont watch conclave yet but emilia perez and the aprantice donald trump story soooo good screenplay

[@blu48]

I watched Anora due to Brian's rave review. It was such an unexpected laugh riot (that big segment anyway). It should get screenplay, imo. I think best pic will be The Brutalist or Conclave.

[@BFA100]

My Early Oscar Predictions for the year 2024 Best Picture: Anora Best Director: Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) Best Actress: Mikey Madison (Anora) Best Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) Best Supporting Actress: Isabella Rosselini (Conclave) Best Original Screenplay: Anora Best Adapted Screenplay: Conclave

[@marrmart7690]

Realy anora best every thing🙄..the film same home alone😄body guard follow stupid boy make love with sex worker and make action in the end

[@senaitmessele8641]

May be , Best supporting Actor: Edward Norton

[@user-friendly-b6q]

I saw Conclave yesterday in a theater. Isabella Rosellini is hardly in the movie !!! Around 3 minutes or less, awards have gone bananas if they think 3 minutes of performance is enough for any kind of award . The world is upside down!

[@AntsTheaterCorner2698]

Don't even get me started on the end of the film, the biggest brain slap I've ever seen for a film conclusion outside of Joker 2. It was both laughable and disgustingly confusing. What a terrible ending.

[@user-friendly-b6q]

@AntsTheaterCorner2698 You are right, friend !

[@AntsTheaterCorner2698]

@@user-friendly-b6q I heard at the end of the film, the new pope is a biological female who is male. 🤢 🤮. That makes me sick to my stomach hearing that. What a brain rot, rot of a conclusion and a pathetic excuse for an ending.

[@jamyldobson6538]

I think you're underestimating how well Wicked is gonna do. It is a big sweeping musical and a box office success and there is solid work all around in that film. I predict it's gonna be one of the most nominated films at the Oscars because of everything I just mentioned. I don't know if it will necessarily sweep every category it's in. But it wouldn't surprise me as the Oscars loves rewarding big projects like that and it needs the ratings.

[@linnylinnylinny]

Honestly, only critics that say the best performance of the lead actor is Brody. Outside of the critics, general audience put Chalamet on top of the lead actor category with many skills that he showcased so on point and so perfectly compared to just showcased emotional performance.

[@PhilipsWood725]

#TeamDemi! The performance. The narrative. The career. With each passing day, I find her performance in ‘The Substance’ more and more profound. An oft-critically-snubbed woman who just happens to be one of the biggest movie stars in history [..and in, by far, her greatest performance]. It just feels right. Give the people what they want! It doesn’t happen often, and Demi has *EARNED* her flowers!

[@PatrickEtheridge1983]

I agree with your picks. Supporting I think will be Grande, and Culkin. Actor will be Challamet, and Actress Mikey Madison. Director Sean Baker. Picture will probably be Conclave.

[@saraescobedo4278]

Brian, I do think in some of these are over thinking out which is really sweet but at the same time I agree with you on Adrien Brody winning simply because they gave two Oscars to Francis McDormand within a few years of each other, and they were very different performances and she is an extraordinary actress, but I could see them giving it to other people and yet they gave it to her and they didn’t care. I think that we’re looking at is 100% Adrien Brody‘s performance deserves the Oscar and Chalamet will win at some point. Not saying it’s a Kate Winslet/Amy Adams situation, but I feel like just playing a real person won’t be enough

[@italok6577]

Fernanda Torres deserves her flowers

[@LDavDT33]

Torres' victory will be the nomination but if there is no chance that Torres wins (the only thing she could win the Globe)

[@brickellrich1]

The fact that almost no one is talking about her is terribly disappointing - and myopic.

[@italok6577]

@brickellrich1 They're not very opened to other foreign language movies. The closest they get to watching one is either Spanish or any other European production. Last time a portuguese speaking actress was nominated was her mother in 1999.

[@brickellrich1]

@@italok6577 Thus my point. It’s really disheartening. I hope things turn around for her. We shall see…

[@jonathanvelazquezph.d.2719]

Go send them to her 💐