Economics PhD students predict the next big thing

[@KiyoshiSounkyo]

I studied Economics at A Level, it is a fascinating subject but as Simon says it leaves you with more questions than it answers.

[@faezulmohamadali8972]

Rin just like Physics as you go deeper into the subject. Knowing that a particle can be at 2 places at the same time really does give you more questions than it answers!

[@hellothere9763]

@@faezulmohamadali8972 As someone who graduated in both big difference is practical predictability. Economics is social science after all and, as we currently understand, human behavior isn't really predictable.

[@anishagurung7195]

Rin this last sentence really sparked a whole different question

[@a.g364]

@@hellothere9763 fortunately human behavior is not predictable

[@finthechat7134]

Economics PhD's. Those people who aren't consulted when our govt makes economic decisions.

[@nicetrymate813]

wrong

[@TheFamousMockingbird]

Economist. Those guys who manage to give the wrong advice anytime consulted by the govt

[@a.g364]

@@TheFamousMockingbird economists: those guys that give good advices almost everytime and politicians do the opposite because voters would' t appreciate.

[@fredranzalot4849]

@@a.g364 Except those times when the economists suggest it, and the voters would be for it, but big corporations disapprove.

[@MovieRiotHD]

Problem is that politicians take models for truth while it is more nuanced. In addition, they should pay more attention to non-econometric based economics.

[@JavaBigFan]

I was so worried what the channel will be when you get your phd but it turned out just perfect! I used to think that economics is a boring subject but watching your video I found that it is quite interesting! Thanks for your efforts to make science in all fields interesting :)

[@marlonchristie2177]

Excellent video, your channel is reaching new dimensions. The science of economics is just as important as the natural sciences.

[@AwesomeAsh99]

Yep important in different ways.

[@ishaanparikh485]

Not really

[@vibraphonics]

Forget quantum mechanics; I firmly believe that no one understands global economics.

[@nycto16]

Exactly!

[@brundhaaa]

I love where this channel is heading😂😂😂

[@abhirupan7630]

Economics seems incredibly abstract in the beginning but as you dig deeper and deeper, you get the answers that you were searching for. Problem is, just like you said, you're left with more questions.

[@rubenmeireles]

Nice to see you in my country ! Fantastic channel and brilliant work ! Congratulations and cheers from Portugal

[@leskipbayless3280]

Great video Simon!

[@manavshetty4449]

The Arsenal fan tv guy? Really?

[@leskipbayless3280]

Manav Shetty Yes, knowledge is power.

Great Video! I would love to see more videos like this one. Seeing other PhD students sharing what they are doing is very inspiring. Also, knowing that other PhD students struggle with more or less the same problems as I do is kind of a relief.

[@yandrjam]

What a great video, I'm 3rd year in my undergrad and considering going to do a masters in economics so to hear from people who have done their PhD in it is really interesting. Thanks

[@malus7452]

Hi! How did you decide? Are you in economics?

[@saralkoirala1355]

When I clicked this video I expected to be bored by some Economics academic Jargon, boy I was wrong. The presentation, video & background was so good by Dr. Clark. This is the type of content I subscribed for{even though I understood nothing at the end :( }. Good Job. Keep it going

[@BettiVB]

Economics is a social science and it’s fascinating. My Bsc is in Economics and there is soooo much to research in this field.

[@KleytonRodrigues87]

As an economics student I must say I'm delighted. Hahah, great video.

[@chinhchinh2808]

Great videos! I look forward to more Ph.D. Students interview on topics outside of your comfort zones.

[@uear7070]

For real he doesnt know what freddos are???

[@SimonClark]

I KNOW RIGHT

[@dtghanvey]

It's the best example of inflation we have!

[@SimonThrossellFilms]

Naj Should have used it as the click bait...

[@GrowingPothos]

Are you talking about ice cream? Because we have it in Argentina and there's a fuckton of inflation here and boy do i miss that ice cream.

[@aislingpassmore2602]

Veri Freddos are tiny chocolate bars shaped like frogs

[@seanippolito4046]

Hi Simon, great video! It was really enjoyable, especially your perspective as someone who is NOT an economist. Thank you for exposing topics like this to a larger audience. I am currently a PhD student in economics as well (1 of 5 years completed in the US). In response to the comments at 6:44-7:14, I completely agree with what you said, however... (I say this as someone who is ignorant of climate science and physics in general) what really differentiates the fields are the goals and motivations behind the research, the agenda, and this is key. As every person, state, country etc. has different needs, wants, goals, many of these conflict, especially on a global scale. Furthermore, at the core defining what goals are valuable and even “good” has been hard to define, especially between economic models, at all scales. I hope people like you from out of the discipline, as well as those from within, can continue to grow this discussion about what is important on all scales in every economy without marginalizing vulnerable populations, those who don’t have a strong voice. At this point I think the study of distribution is MORE important then optimizing growth because unsustainable practices have been in place for generations, environmental and social justice are goals I think we can all agree are extremely important. Thanks again for making this!

[@dhlwilson82]

Intriguing episode, definitely got me mulling over the topics discussed.

[@MrLiangXi]

Dude, I love your channel! Thanks for those amazing videos!

[@grady_young]

If you’re interested in learning more about economics listen to the freakonomics podcast!

[@copelandhd722]

ECONOMICS IS SO ABSOLUTELY IMPORTANT.

[@josemhs1213]

Basically what I've gotten from PhD videos: You know this things we imagen as stable? nah man we don't know it at all and when we do , it changes. And if I'm honest. That has made it amazing

[@thesecretorganist]

Here's a great quote from John Maynard Keynes on the difficulties of mastering economics: "Professor [Max] Planck, of Berlin, the famous originator of the Quantum Theory, once remarked to me that in early life he had thought of studying economics, but had found it too difficult! Professor Planck could easily master the whole corpus of mathematical economics in a few days. He did not mean that! But the amalgam of logic and intuition and the wide knowledge of facts, most of which are not precise, which is required for economic interpretation in its highest form is, quite truly, overwhelmingly difficult for those whose gift mainly consists in the power to imagine and pursue to their furthest points the implications and prior conditions of comparatively simple facts which are known with a high degree of precision."

[@miltonfriedman9018]

Keep away from Keynes.

[@thesecretorganist]

You would say that

[@faezulmohamadali8972]

Milton Friedman 😂😂😂

[@MrShamding]

I think it would be interesting if in the odd video you took a deeper dive into the mathematics of a lot of the physics that you cover to show how it really works, so to speak. Like you demonstrated with atmospheric physics a while back.

[@lachiwoods]

as someone who is studying degrees that have little to do with science (politics and law), i really enjoyed watching this video, and actually being able to understand what is being talked about by the PhD students :D keep it up!

[@heatherewert9934]

Look at this absolutely solid content, great stuff!

[@jfndfiunskj5299]

They are economists, not fortune tellers. They can't and don't predict the future, but were too polite to tell you that.

[@maherhussein1999]

I'm also majoring in physics and don't have any experience or interest in economics other than the required class I had to take in high school but this video was very interesting and gave me a very good introduction to economics research

[@uzairakram899]

Seriously this was more interesting than a class by an economics lecturer. You must have terrible teachers. This made economics seem like a dull subject that is not well defined.

[@ValerieDelaMarch]

This was awesome, I hope you get to do more vids like this!

[@maishamahboob7423]

Given that Economics and Environmental Science are the 2 most heated topics in the world rn, hats off to Simon for making a video like this.

[@SmithdoesMinecraft]

I liked you on Tom Scott's game show, Lateral.

[@SimonClark]

Thank you! That was a lot of fun to film.

[@ATGDev]

This was a cool video I liked the style a lot, maybe a few more videos like this in the future? Although it's clear from view count that videos like this may not be big hits on your channel

[@anjalyb6935]

Thanks for doing this video Simon. I'm doing in monetary economics. central bank intervention and predictions of exchange rates. i'm really passionate about my research and its very difficult too. but i hope i will be finishing by next year.

[@marcussilkisberg6099]

Really enjoyed this video Simon (especially as a econ. graduate). Similar videos on the highlighted or different disciplines would be very interesting!

[@Julietlovemovie]

It's was really interesting! And fun! Good job :)

[@burggerbig102]

Genius and hard work are the keys to push the world forward.

[@anupamaherath1143]

I will start a PhD in Economics in this year..

[@gregoriuslamare2439]

How many years it takes to declare phd in major economic

[@dasinsight4156]

@@gregoriuslamare2439 almost 5 to 6 years in the United States

[@servantofallah8029]

How is it going!?

[@vmizobuti]

Wow, congrats for this amazing achievement, Simon. It is really great to see some "soft" science having space in your channel!

[@sevinm6261]

The PhD students were amazing. I'm studying literature at uni right now and economics is literally the most unappealing subject to me but still they managed me to think that economics can be beautiful and important and interesting.

[@nycto16]

Sustainability Economist to be!

[@RandageJr]

Interesting 3:42 , how was his name? I want to read more about it

[@claudiajade624]

Love to see more of these - I hope more conferences invite u to do videos! 🙂

[@BarriosGroupie]

This is like predicting the next big thing in physics or engineering: we don't know.

[@David-np2gb]

That feel when you went to a conference which focused on economics (and climate science, among other forecasting topics) the same weekend as simon but it was a completely different conference

[@dlb3441]

Sintra is a magical place - don't miss the Pena Palace. (I'm from Lisbon=)

[@lucioiscool]

I am in the Business field of study currently pursuing my BA. This is extremely helpful to learn some things about Economics since it's a major chunk of what I do as well.

[@olahola12]

Somehow their explanations of their research topics seemed very simplistic. Surprised.

[@SimonClark]

I asked them to pretend they were explaining their research to their grandmother! Wanted them to keep it nice and simple. You can read their actual papers at a link in the description for the full details

[@dangiscongrataway2365]

In class we were given the definition of economics as science of limit

[@TheTnaidu]

Simon this was great! I know you might not come to see some insignificant PhD ethnographer like myself in Abu Dhabi but I’m with the University of Wolverhampton in the UK and I would gladly collaborate with you for your channel if the opportunity was ever there, that’s very possible with technology the way it is these days! Loving the PhD collab videos. Keep it coming. 😊

[@moimitou]

I had the same thought a few days ago about how economic modelling is like climate modelling!

[@dipro001]

As an English and Medieval Studies student, I also feel like my fields also align with Economics as you described your climate science does. Funny world.

[@josepharte]

"Thinking more and more of economics like climate science" YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS EXACTLY (but only macroeconomics, which only something like 30% of economists work on directly)

[@archiewyles8104]

Didn't event realise it was a Simon Clark video when I clicked, pleasant surprise.

[@vientayuno934]

Alex kersten is an economics Ph.D. as well as the cheif editor of carthrottle.

[@MegzeeR]

Wow, economics experts today seem to repeatedly say, we need to learn more because we've been so wrong so often.

[@edwoodvine6793]

"I am the definition baby"

[@tomahwakthehawker8725]

Edward Woodvine did he say maybe or baby

[@rahatahmed9848]

Everyone must learn econ. by which we can analyse market,,,principles of spending and saving wealth and asset.......

[@amenicHD]

You are always doing interesting videos! Also you asked them good questions

[@einsteinisbae27]

Give yourself a freddo, you earnt it mate, really interesting!

[@TheNeilDarby]

Did you interview anyone studying the effect of credit creation by commercial banks on the price of speculative assets that they than bet on (derivatives), and how that process, in conjunction with regulatory capture and easy money monetary policy (QE and zero/low interest rates) creates a kind of perfect game for the financial sector to parisitize and domineer the real economy and the political and social institutions that are supposed to govern it?

[@TheNeilDarby]

I suggest the book "The Creation of Money" by Ann Petifor

[@servantofallah8029]

Is that Edward Cullen?

[@kamehamehaDdragon]

We know a lot nowadays, but there is still a lot of physics, maths, chemistry, biology..., botany, economy, ...,psychology, medicine,... we don't know. And we shall try to figure out everything we can before extinction. XD

[@pauljmey]

You should read Noah Smith who had a physics background before he got a Phd in econ (macro) and has some fairly scathing thing to say about the discipline. One thing that is important to know is that econ is not a science overall, some subfields are hopelessly not (macroecon), some are better. The reason why is that there is not always data available from experiments to confirm theories. Now occacionally you get this in the hard sciences (e.g. geology) but in these cases, the models are based firmly established sciences that are settled. In econ, the evidence-less areas have to rely on models of human behavior (i.e., not physics and chemisty). Many economists think they what they do is scientific because it involves mathematical modeling (so sad). Mitchell Waldrop (Complexity) has an interesting description of the initial encounters between the two disciplines (physics and econ) at the Santa Fe institute. The other thing your econ students may not be aware of (or agree with) is that many sub-disciplines and theories have in-built conservative political assumptions (sometimes intentionally). There is no other discipline (at least not those aspiring to "scientific-ness") which has such a large community of dissidents who question almost everything about "the mainstream", which to accurate, mainstream means people whose careers have been structured and influenced by money invested by right-wing think tanks and corporations...

[@pauljmey]

Another interesting econ folks are Barkely Rosser, son of the famous mathematician, who is very math heavy and sceptical about many things that go on in the profession. Same too Max Sawick and Peter Dorman, to name a few.

[@CMcN]

Question is, did you learn anything on the economics of baguette production?

[@DLSMauu]

You are in my homeland!!!

[@thelastcube.]

you must've felt pretty 'adult' there

[@jamesball8369]

Great video Simon! Would be interesting to see more of these with students in other fields (My field of Political Science would be good)

[@rings4433]

A video related to my degree :) Love it.

[@manuelmichaellepagelevesqu897]

As a recent PhD student in Economics, it hurts hearing them (PhD's being interviewed) answer your questions... 1) "What Economics is" shouldn't be too difficult to answer. it is the study of human interactions using one unique principle that no other science uses: Preferences; 2) "Is it a Science?" it is a science! In fact, it is a field of applied Mathematics; 3) Whhhyyyyyyy do people always assume that macroeconomists are the only economists...🙄. As a Game Theorist, with the intention on specializing in Theoretical Neuroeconomics, it hurts, it truly hurts 😔; I would love to see a video that interviews Macroeconomists, Microeconomists and Econometricians: The three main branches of Econ. One question may lead to different answers 😮😊

[@zeliesieyadjeu8096]

Totally agree with you. They are completely ignoring other economists. But I guess it is because he went to a particular school of economics...

[@dariuschong4574]

Economics is not a science and certainly not a field of applied mathematics. In science you build theories base on established facts and come up with experiments that are necessarily repeatable. In economics, you build theories based on assumptions of human behaviour. There are no universal laws in economics akin to the laws of physics which are absolute and undisputable. Yet economists are obstinate, trying to build models based on strong (often false) assumptions, axioms which can't hold true for any reasonable estimate. Trying to model human behaviour is a futile endeavour. I see economic history, behavioural economics and development economics as the more respectful fields of economics as compared to other fields of economics that are pretending to be a science. www.ineteconomics.org/about/news/2012/economics-is-not-math

[@manuelmichaellepagelevesqu897]

@@dariuschong4574 Yes, classical Economics is often seen as problematic due to its simple axioms. That's why I was saying there isn't only one branch of Economics. But regardless, all models are expressed mathematically, so how is it not applied maths? It's ok if you don't like Economics, but it is a wee odd to deny it being applied maths altogether. For instance, most - if not all - business cycle models will use dynamic programming and Bellman value functions. In my field of market design and game theory, I use a lot of graph theory. Also you are right in saying that the assumptions about human behaviour are not entirely accurate. But the reason they are made is to try and be able to come up with tractable solutions. Of course some are intractable or NP hard, but many a times you can find a nice solution. Do we know that it doesn't explain every single behaviour? Of course. Do we have an entire field that specializes in verifying the accuracy? Yes, econometrics. I get that many pure sciences see us as "not a science", but it would be nice to give us a chance to explain the things we do.

[@dariuschong4574]

@@manuelmichaellepagelevesqu897 Oh don't get me wrong, I did not meant to say economics is not a science because I hate economics. I just think that economics has lost its direction while trying so hard to be a science. You, as an economist, may claim that economic models are able to provide you insights though they may not be accurate at predicting. Now take South Korea in the 70s-90s as an example. SK focuses heavily on exports while imposing strong protectionist policies. Or Singapore where 80% of housing is government funded, a fifth of their GDP comes from state owned enterprises and 90% of their land are owned by the government. These two countries are among the wealthiest nations in the world right now but their development model contradicts mainstream economic theories. Can you name me a model that can describe these countries' growth? Economists are so willing to borrow tools from physics but seems relunctant to borrow more from other fields of humanities and social sciences such as sociology, psychology, history, ethics, etc. Take an undergraduate course for example, students don't learn (imo) more important stuff like the history of economic thought and economic history. Instead, they're being introduced to constrained optimization in their first year, trying to "analyse" the behaviour of an *individual* as if they're supercomputers with very complex algorithms intricately designed for optimization. We're also being introduced to the notion of equilibrium but most of the time irl the market is in constant disequilibrium. Like it or not you gotta admit that a behavioural scientist understands how _economic agents make decisions to maximise utility given a certain budget constraints_ better than economists do. It's refreshing to see courses like behavioural economics, developmental economics, political economy and economic history being offered in most undergraduate economics degree but they're not being emphasised enough. One can graduate from university with a certificate that says "BSc. Economics" without taking any of those optional modules hence not truly know how economics work irl. It just seems to me that academic economists and pure mathematicians have a lot in common. They enjoy dabbling with Platonic ideas and have little regard to the real world.

[@giialiinh]

@@dariuschong4574 gosh you are so right !

[@abhijeetghodgaonkar]

Good video!

[@elliottdenis110]

Great video Simon ! 😍 I still wonder why you were invited there 😅

[@majorwind]

Fascinating!

[@hashimsarwar5338]

“Very very little is certain in economics”-that should be your main take away lol

[@manuelmichaellepagelevesqu897]

Yep, it is mostly because they use stochastic models. Financial Econ-ers, for example, will use stochastic Calculus (Ito Calculus) and brownian motions. Others, e.g. econometricians will use statistics to make certain inference concerning their data. In general, as we add time as a variable, we consider stochastic processes. So yup! Lots of uncertainty in Econ, but that's what's great about it!

[@biranai]

in all the comments on the thorium reactor or moltan salt no talk about the size critical economical and so on can i have it on mu bike car ship train?

[@w.2963]

The first man looked like the actor from daredevil

[@rehanjawaid]

A very nice video

[@aominaito]

Really interesting!

[@harrison805]

Economics is indeed a science - specifically, a social science. Also, I have a short economics video here for you that you might like: kzbin.info/www/bejne/g3zFdqGlq9SXr9k

[@l.l.6127]

Interesting topics

[@danielhady3021]

The fellow studying sudden unemployment problems during recessions is now getting a once in a lifetime real world lab experiment and droves of data to pour through now and in the future.

[@rexevan6714]

I think economics and statistics is related in some kind of way.

[@thomasfoot3023]

Economics is the study of material communications.

[@dylanhallahan4633]

Love this so so much

[@qwertyTRiG]

I couldn't catch what he said about the media narrative.

[@yellowhmsconqueror]

The Freddos guy....hit me up 😘

[@savage-vq7fg]

I thought economics was just supply and demand, but I guess I was wrong

[@charlieshin9868]

🤨Maybe I should study Economics . 🤨

[@prab231]

Charlie Shin Go for it. Whatever you think suits u.

[@ozzoforest]

What do the England Cricket Board have to do with economics?

[@ZhengCheng]

very nice video, keep it up haha~

[@CodeCommand]

did he grow up under a rock???

[@aribafaheem7847]

Is that Matt Murdoch?!

[@noobkilla3]

Climate science is pretty complicated, but its nowhere near economics. The number of variables in economics is literally infinite, cuz human behavior is so bloody unpredictable. And yeah, great video!

[@AwesomeAsh99]

Nikil Kumar that's what makes it unreliable.

[@smc3291]

This was such a cool video :) you should look into other disciplines more often. Thanks a mill

[@shuush875]

I had to Google what freddos are...

[@JetskiDex]

How does he not know what a fredo is, my god is he joking?

[@timothyrooney3457]

Currently I'm a PhD students in economics at a top 50 program in the US, long time subscriber, Kind of bummed that I wasn't asked to be in the video.. Jk

[@josesollapermangm8512]

Hey simon I am in Aveiro if you want to come and have a pint!

[@davidhume6119]

Hi Simon, It's a bit sad to see that economics here is portrayed as an overly statistical and mathematical science, with models to prove things. These models, or just the way to think with these models and stats, however carry a lot of false presumptions that are inherently untrue. If you are really interested in economics or you want to make your viewers interested and give them a broad view over what economics is, you should not only do interviews with PhD-students who are qualified to win prizes of the ECB (an institution that is not nearly as neutral or good to the market as they like to portray) and do some interviews with students or professors of unorthodox economic schools of thought, like the Austrian School of Economics for example. With that said, I do like your approach to make science more fun and interesting, hence my tip hereabove.

[@cynthiajanetrodriguezquint5576]

Hey man, Do you have emai

[@Tommykee999]

i thought the reason why employment increases during a recession was extremely clear, increase in cost of investing (e.g) raising central bank interest rates) so its harder for currency to be splashed around in the economy so people/business do not create jobs but population still increases and people have there hold there job positions so thus creating higher unemployment. when interest rates are lowered its easier to take out a loan and start throttling the economy into a job making machine until the creation of fiat currency and burrowing loans are so cheap money starts losing value thus central banks increase interest rates again causing the cycle to continue. sadly devaluing everyones piece of the pie except for the ones in the central banking club. hey but what do i know just a first year physics student at a bad sydney uni (relative to the others) to the Ukrainian dude bravo man cryptocurrency i reckon are the next thing if the powers that be allow it so cough cough central banks. with crypto currencies to eliminite this centralized control of inflation and thus stop these massive differences in economic activity from recession to boom cycle due to the currency supply inflation rate fluctuating thru the times

[@Tommykee999]

^ real badly written soz to anyone that can't understand it

[@dariuschong4574]

@@Tommykee999 Sometimes regular folks can understand economic phenomena better than economists do because we stay grounded to reality. Economists love to make an abstraction out of the real world and common sense is often thrown out to make models convenient to study. I like how Steve Keen, an Australian economist, described the maths being used in economics as _mythematics_ .