No. China Is Not Going To Collapse... Yet

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Economics Explained

Economics Explained

Күн бұрын

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0:00 - 1:27 Intro
1:28 - 2:32 Brilliant
2:33 - 6:03 China's economic problems
6:04 - 7:00 Real estate bubble
7:01 - 9:20 Cost competitiveness
9:21 - 11:14 Bridges to nowhere
11:15 - 13:00 Belt and road initiative
13:01 - 14:44 Over-reliance on real estate
14:45 - 16:00 Banking system
16:01 - 18:43 Why China won't collapse
18:44 - 20:12 Business cycle
20:13 - 21:11 Inflation
21:12 - 22:22 Political system
22:23 - 26:30 End of the economic miracle?
26:31 - 27:54 Clickbait
27:55 You don't want China to collapse
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#economics #china #collapse
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Пікірлер: 4 100
@EconomicsExplained
@EconomicsExplained Жыл бұрын
Keep exploring at brilliant.org/economicsexplained/. Get started for free, and hurry-the first 200 people get 20% off an annual premium subscription.
@dieptrieu6564
@dieptrieu6564 Жыл бұрын
Keep up the good work. Always love your neutral pov compare to all the other economist channel that always look to the extreme
@TheManinBlack9054
@TheManinBlack9054 Жыл бұрын
Sorry to dissapoint us?! There is nothing close to the amount sinophobia in western society except maybe for Russophobia.
@jaybee4577
@jaybee4577 Жыл бұрын
China won’t collapse but may become the next Japan or stuck in the middle income trap.
@shzarmai
@shzarmai Жыл бұрын
Exactly, thank you for this video. I don't expect China to collapse anytime soon tbh
@bdykes7316
@bdykes7316 Жыл бұрын
The FBX index graph at 7 minutes 40 seconds may have the x-axis labels mixed up. Also, the data series "This year" should be labeled 2022 for clarity.
@Mito383
@Mito383 Жыл бұрын
According to some KZbin channels, China’s economy was supposed to collapse 45 times in the last week.
@user-nf1zz9rq4x
@user-nf1zz9rq4x Жыл бұрын
AHAHHAHAHHAHAHAH...seeing China-gonna-collaps video is one of my entertainment when i am extremely bored in China. These guys just wetdreaming desperately in their mind while sitting in their slum of European energy crisis or civil war mass shooting everday in Murica. LOL!
@FitraRahim
@FitraRahim Жыл бұрын
Well, I think MBS/Saudi Arabia (With Their Oil reserve left in 5 years by some western experts...., bad images about Neom-Line City) can relate that.
@neilabernath5862
@neilabernath5862 Жыл бұрын
Love the videos that even give a set time period for the collapse, like 25 days.
@irritatedanglosaxon1705
@irritatedanglosaxon1705 Жыл бұрын
LOL, it just brought such humiliation to US experts to its lowest level
@brianliew5901
@brianliew5901 Жыл бұрын
Is China collapse great news for the US? For decades, the US has lamented how poor and pitiful China was yet they're not happy with their high income and global hegemony. What kind of people are living on the N. American continent that wished ill-will against their fellow humans? Today China is still a poor nation by comparison to the world's richest nation so what else do the US wants?
@obhwg
@obhwg Жыл бұрын
The amount of CHINA COLLAPSE IMMINENT and CHINA IS GOING DOWNHILL content coming out recently is still pretty funny to me. Always happy to see a channel like EE put some actual reason to the noise
@r3dpowel796
@r3dpowel796 Жыл бұрын
its just american Psy ops. against China.
@VestigeFinder
@VestigeFinder Жыл бұрын
China will explode in 3 seconds!?!?!?
@HOTSHTMAN53
@HOTSHTMAN53 Жыл бұрын
Its the same thing that we saw with the sanctions on Russia. “Ruble is going to go to 0”, “Russia about to revolt”, “Russian economy is going to collapse”, “Putin will see a coup”, etc. its all just a hype train to prove the poorly analyzed economists ideas as the truth and fact
@wutim6472
@wutim6472 Жыл бұрын
YES CHINA IS JUST USING SOFT POWER AND ECONOMICS NOT USING MILITARY FORCE
@Rexluna1
@Rexluna1 Жыл бұрын
Jake Tran and Business Basics laying it real thick fr
@Kotsuyosama
@Kotsuyosama Жыл бұрын
As Chinese, there is a funny meme on Chinese social media about how Western media reports on China😂. That is: on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, China will soon collapse; on Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday, China will be a threat; on Sunday... ummmm, let's think about how to report China next week. Don't worry; we've far gotten used to it. 🤣🤣🤣
@tiansuohaoer
@tiansuohaoer Жыл бұрын
哈哈哈,太真实了
@amberyao6493
@amberyao6493 Жыл бұрын
If we believe western medias, China's economy has been in a kind of sustainable collapse in the past 20 years.
@makeergod4153
@makeergod4153 Жыл бұрын
油管诞生那天气中国就经济奔溃,每年如此
@saint_matthias
@saint_matthias Жыл бұрын
Lol it will collapse one day eventually because there has never been a one-party state that lasted more than 80 years
@user-vz9ud8ub7y
@user-vz9ud8ub7y Жыл бұрын
总有傻子会相信,但听多了总有人会厌烦,厌烦的人总有一天会戳穿这样的恶性谎言,更多的时候不是中国倒台崩坏,而是西方人(政治对立国)希望中国倒台,这个愿望已经持续了十几年了,台海战争都好几年了,哪怕一开始听了会恐慌,但现在听得我耳朵都起茧子了还是屁事没有,媒体的一贯手法,吸引眼球,在放大夸张,糊弄愿意被糊弄的人,想知道真相的人其实没有多少,要不然也不会有所谓bbc美国之音这样的媒体存在了。
@qikewang8270
@qikewang8270 Жыл бұрын
Great video like always. I live in Australia and just came back from a business trip of over 15 cities in China, I may be able to provide some insights in how the country changed since the pandemic. The issues you pointed out are true and are well acknowledged by both the common people and various levels of government. I spoke to people from mayors to lower rank government officers, from cab drivers to exporters, from students to university professors, in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, or small towns with population of 50K. The consensus is that they all know the economy is slowing down, for example, the mayor was worried about not being able to sell enough houses than before, but knows very well that the previous mode was not sustainable, so he is trying to encourage eco-friendly industries, build national parks, modern agriculture in his city. Other cities I visited would have new high-tech industries being built everywhere, the support from the government for new technologies and R&D is unpreceded. So what I can see is China is changing from the old real estate driven economy to a more high-tech high-efficient economy. It's probably not going to turn the whole country around by tomorrow, and it is probably going to be very wasteful and painful, but I think they will make it, just as they did before. One obvious example is how streets look like between the China and Australia, of course except for better and newer roads, probably half of the cars on the streets of any cities are electric, compared to probably less than 10% in countries like Australia or US. This can be regarded as the success of the continuous government support for electric vehicles over the last 5 years. From a consumer point of view, those new brands are quite competitive in any counties, they are not the best ones in the market, but cost effective and with sometimes very cool designs. The economy in China has overcame much worse situations before, I don't think this one is any different. The government has policies for those issues since before the pandemic to prevent actual crisis from happening. The economy will probably going to be stagnant for some time, before it finds another growth curve. Another thing that you didn't mention is the consensus from top to bottom, that they have faith in the country and even to the CCP, which is very rare compared to most other countries in the world now. You may argue that brain wash in an era like this will backfire and eventually people will wake up and demand democracy, but what if they keep deliver in the past four decades? In a situation like this, having faith in the economy is the most powerful tool that China has against decline, when people know things will turn around in a few years time, they will have much higher tolerance to hardships.
@GodwynDi
@GodwynDi Жыл бұрын
Faith in the CCP is tied to its success. It keeps promising growth, improving conditions, and modernization. And it keeps delivering.
@frankmerriwell8339
@frankmerriwell8339 Жыл бұрын
A basic difference between the public of China and the west is their attitudes toward their government. Which I would argue leads to most of the misunderstandings and bias toward China. Maybe this is due to the relentless efforts by western msm.
@zackaryxcwang6933
@zackaryxcwang6933 Жыл бұрын
​@@frankmerriwell8339 I would say its more or less the same attitudes. However we all are well aware that the most expressive minorities have the biggest presence in msm. In addition, this feeling of difference might be accompanied by difference in cultural norms. Often that not, public expressions are taken more seriously in Asian countries than Western. The misunderstandings and bias are further accelerated from both governments and msms. Both sides are currently launching a variety of conspiracy theories and antagonization. On the China side, there is an increasing effort in control of exchange in communication. Western media are increasingly using CCP's reactions from aggression as justification of CCP's aggression
@TIm_Bugge
@TIm_Bugge Жыл бұрын
@@GodwynDi ... as is fear of it.
@flyingfetus4364
@flyingfetus4364 Жыл бұрын
@@frankmerriwell8339 Also the geopolitical differences/rivalry play a huge role in conjuction with the cultural and societal differences to explain the anti-china bias in my opinion.
@MoneyMacro
@MoneyMacro Жыл бұрын
Haha thanks for the shout-out. I think it is healthy to see multiple videos on the same topic that take slightly different angles. For example, you are right to point out that Japan style stagnation is much worse for China than it is for Japan. Not entirely sure about the inflation situation though. Hyperinflation is 50% PER MONTH and as you said means game over for the USA... So, I stand by calling hyperinflation in the USA just as ridiculous as China's collapse in 30 days:)
@ysiabmworkinggroup3049
@ysiabmworkinggroup3049 Жыл бұрын
Jup
@schentler
@schentler Жыл бұрын
Hey Boss
@MoneyMacro
@MoneyMacro Жыл бұрын
@@schentler hello hello
@RafaelW8
@RafaelW8 Жыл бұрын
I love your channel
@MoneyMacro
@MoneyMacro Жыл бұрын
@@RafaelW8 thanks!!
@AngelGonzalez-yb6gu
@AngelGonzalez-yb6gu Жыл бұрын
I've been hearing about "China's imminent collapse" for over a decade, I remember it began around 2010 or even earlier with the ghost cities and it's been going on ever since. Now with data showing signs that China's economy might be in trouble, some analysts are back at it saying China's economy is on the brick of a mega crisis that could lead to the collapse of the Chinese Communist Party. I don't know if there's any real chance of a mega crisis like this, but a few years ago I came to the conclusion that this hypothesis was as much as a possibility as some people's wishful thinking.
@ernestkhalimov1007
@ernestkhalimov1007 Жыл бұрын
I've heard about the imminent collapse every year since 1979 and the cheerleading got really huge in 1989 until it got defeated and again from 2005.-2008 in lead up to the Olympic games and since then
@travis8432
@travis8432 Жыл бұрын
the collapse topic is begining around 2019,not from 2010,and you know a nation collapse need time,especially a big country like China,it will not happen over a night,it need several years,maybe decade
@ernestkhalimov1007
@ernestkhalimov1007 Жыл бұрын
@@travis8432 nah its been longer than that
@DanKann86
@DanKann86 Жыл бұрын
I gained no new insights after watching the video. Many people have acknowledged about the likely economic collapse of China. That is separate from the unlikely collapse of the CCP government and its control over China where hardly anyone talks about. It is quite obvious the CCP will likely remain in control, at least for a while or longer. Just look at N. Korea. Also, Chinese are unlikely to rebel. Japan have experienced a serious economic contraction/ collapse in the early 90s (people and businesses did feel the heavy pinch), stagnated and has not recovered, though it is doing ok (while accumulating more debt, which impedes growth) since it is already a high income country with strong institutions and many renowned/trusted brands to sustain its export economy. Same cannot be said of China and its situations are far worse. The Soviet Union's economy collapsed years before the country officially collapsed and broke apart. If economic collapse happens to China, people will really feel the economic pinch and the increasing clamp on their personal freedom. They already have for the past few years and it is only the beginning.
@shaozhihao
@shaozhihao Жыл бұрын
章家敦在2001年就写了 中国即将崩溃。 随后的十几年里,他成了复读机。
@lawrenceyuan3863
@lawrenceyuan3863 Жыл бұрын
Last few minutes of this video is the key! Collectively speaking, most of us, except those rich politicians, won’t benefit from China’s economic collapse, we will be a part of its collateral damages too. Great video!
@thelargeemployer8442
@thelargeemployer8442 Жыл бұрын
I think both our countries leaders maintain a great incentive to keep people like us fighting one another. I think China and the United States can learn some things from one another without jeopardizing our own unique national identities.
@seanwang1540
@seanwang1540 Жыл бұрын
@@thelargeemployer8442 I love this idea. As much as you can see "the collapsing of China" on KZbin, America is also "collapsed" an infinite amount of times on Chinese medias.
@LDW1961
@LDW1961 6 ай бұрын
A 4K TV will become insanely out of reach? Oh no how will I ever survive!
@RYXPfan
@RYXPfan Жыл бұрын
I really appreciate how informative this channel is while remaining free from the exaggerations and overly dramatic statements made by many on the internet. Keep up the great content!
@jordantyson8772
@jordantyson8772 Жыл бұрын
As someone who works in markets, this doco is spot on and impressively put together. You put most paid-for research to shame!
@maspesasmasperras5554
@maspesasmasperras5554 Жыл бұрын
Thanks!
@nickhoover685
@nickhoover685 Жыл бұрын
Love the longer video format, allows for everything to be discussed more throughly, instead of just an overview.
@chavezchavo
@chavezchavo Жыл бұрын
Thanks you for actually bringing this up. I've been trying to ask creators as to how exactly they come up with those ridiculous numbers and so far i've been greeted with silence.
@11O100
@11O100 Жыл бұрын
Well looks like all those Chinese will collapse videos were correct.... It's currently collapsing, lol
@localman9063
@localman9063 Жыл бұрын
@@11O100 Sure kid.
@stickysden
@stickysden Жыл бұрын
No one seems to have seen the irony, of this video? Dude kept saying, 'China's not going to collapse in the next 27 days, or whatever'. Of Course Not! Russia's economy collapsed way before the "walls fell". 😅 (Edit: It's comparable to try to dig yourself out of debt. Only to prolong that trip to "bankruptcy Court")✌🏽
@LaVaZ000
@LaVaZ000 Жыл бұрын
Yeah because you're just one of 5,000 other comments on their videos.
@mkkk1058
@mkkk1058 Жыл бұрын
@@11O100 you must be a R word
@gazzap6664
@gazzap6664 Жыл бұрын
I lived and worked in Hong Kong and China for 11 years and I completely agree. The silly bantar about China collapsing is more to do with a desire to see them fall then a reality. They are a huge country with wealth generated over a short period. With that comes corruption, dodgy policies and all the things you have mentioned. I agree China will have a difficult economic time ahead but in the end China is here to stay and will remain a major power on the World stage.
@tonymills5086
@tonymills5086 Жыл бұрын
To say the least, China has a boatload of serious issues. Let's get straight to point, the CCP will do whatever it takes to remain in power... Translation it is the Chinese people that will suffer, the housing crisis (Ponzi scheme) a couple trillion dollars they are just kicking the can down the road, huge infrastructure failures, and quite costly, High-Speed rail not profitable at all, the belt and road project extremely costly, inefficient with labor cost and corruption and no doubt the poorer countries will leave China holding the bag (the enormous cost) the ccp's extreme covid-19 lockdowns sent a ripple effect throughout the country, the days when China was the cheap labor hub of the world are probably gone, exports are down sharply, international companies packing up leaving China (hedging their bets) no doubt they see something coming. I'm not saying China's economy is going to collapse, as the Chinese economy dredges forward and we know the CCP is as slow as molasses and as we are beginning to see especially with younger Chinese who are angry, frustrated, losing hope jobs, decent housing and a increasing number young Chinese who are beginning to question the CCP leadership and many refused to join the CCP it is becoming increasingly difficult to keep a lid on what's happening with Chinese economy Chinese people concerned about the quality of life it's sad to say they will bear the brunt (suffer) because of the government's present policies.
@aaroncarter4019
@aaroncarter4019 Жыл бұрын
Kind of weird that this is happening, especially seeing younger people talk about it because this is like the fourth or fifth time a big China collapse news cycle has gone on.
@widodoakrom3938
@widodoakrom3938 Жыл бұрын
kzbin.info/www/bejne/qKSli2d-fJx7jas
@shanerooney7288
@shanerooney7288 Жыл бұрын
If we predict China will collapse every year eventually we will be right.
@adaptercrash
@adaptercrash Жыл бұрын
Been going on since world war 1, just look at Mao
@NeoRetroX
@NeoRetroX Жыл бұрын
It’s propaganda and warfare
@hiyukelavie2396
@hiyukelavie2396 Жыл бұрын
You're witnessing an ongoing information warfare waged against China
@masterchinese28
@masterchinese28 Жыл бұрын
I moved to China in 2003 and Shanghai has been my home ever since. It has been a great time to be here: Olympics, World Expo and a population full of optimism because every year had been better than the last. The last couple years with COVID, decoupling with the world and the recent lockdowns mark a new phase. This summer I've attended farewell parties for fellow expats on a near weekly basis. I withhold my temptation to write a long diatribe to focus on a couple of points: 1) There may be only one party that shows a united front, but if you look at what various leaders say you will notice divergence. Xi has shifted from a pragmatic, anti-corruption leader to an ideologue. His faction has already said that they think prices of raising children has become too high and are preventing the births that they want to sustain the population/workforce. If you have seen some of Li Keqiang's recent meetings, you know his faction is REALLY worried about getting the economy going again. He basically implored cadres at all levels to pull out all of the stops to get business going again. With nearly 20% unemployment for recent grads, the solution is economic. The CCP is one brand, but they have priority differences and approaches that vary widely. 2) The Chinese protest, and get heard, in their own way. It's different than in the West but it happens nonetheless. From recent "lay flat" trends, to running businesses in COVID with the lobby lights off to avoid fines, the locals are quite resourceful and pragmatic. If there is a loophole or workaround, they will find it and exploit it without hesitation. Unlike other places where the law is the LAW, here it's listen to what they say but then watch what people actually do. Several years ago, China made announcement that they would start issuing fines for running YELLOW traffic lights. Articles around the world talked about it. Guess what? Chinese people hated it, the gov't sensed that and left it on the books without implementing it. Similarly, we've been told for years that we would start paying property tax here in Shanghai. The tax bureau literally has turned people away who showed up trying to pay the tax because there was too much push back after it was announced and they relented. Do people have less freedoms here than in many Western countries? Yes. Are they powerless sheep who eat up propaganda and do everything they are told? Not even remotely.
@doujinflip
@doujinflip Жыл бұрын
I feel like if the Party collapses and "New China" fractures into less-centralized governance, the ones least who will be least surprised would be 1-point-something billion Chinese people.
@DrRitterstein
@DrRitterstein Жыл бұрын
@Alessandro Plomo Stop publically announcing your illiteracy.
@gorzux2829
@gorzux2829 Жыл бұрын
Wuow, it seems that Chinese people are actually real human beings who would've guess /j What you're saying is pretty important mate, and should be known more. Thx for the info
@user-nf1zz9rq4x
@user-nf1zz9rq4x Жыл бұрын
Alessandro means his post is very valuable and should write a book.
@honey23b2
@honey23b2 Жыл бұрын
I agree with you 110%. I moved here to work in 2006. Still here. I’m still working even harder. However, yes , I find real people show their feelings in a very different way from westerners. People have their opinions. There are ways of showing discontent. People here are just wanting to survive and provide for their family. They are not stupid or never sheep. But they are aware that in recent years police powers have increased. It’s not as simple looking in like a snap shot. as most westerners think. Most Channels do not understand the dynamics of real people here. It’s much more complex. And silly Sweeping statements of contrition are totally wrong. I just hope things are going to be ok. We are all worried. And starting to prepare. It’s a very worrying time.
@rikai5344
@rikai5344 Жыл бұрын
Thank you for creating a counterweight to "Business Basics"
@Ozjockey111
@Ozjockey111 Жыл бұрын
I just LOVE how you say ‘mate’ at the end of your videos, it’s just so quintessentially Australian! Plus you’re always balanced towards reality rather than clickbait Touché mate!!
@araara4746
@araara4746 Жыл бұрын
I've watched countless videos that say China is going to collapse, from those that say within a year to a decade. But I've noticed that most of the videos are usually delivered by channels or media that have an anti-China track record, and the content is usually very biased. Others are people who present videos that please their viewers (who have negative sentiments on China) to earn money from youtube.
@manuelp7472
@manuelp7472 Жыл бұрын
Which channels? Everyone here is saying "countless videos", "those channels", who? Are you afraid to name them? Why can't you be specific? It's impossible to assess your claim if you don't even say who it is against.
@araara4746
@araara4746 Жыл бұрын
@@manuelp7472 a lot of Random channel. Do you write down every video you watched on youtube. Search with key word China Collapse and you'll find a lot of that kind of video. Or you never saw one?
@jon-unicorn-doxxer
@jon-unicorn-doxxer Жыл бұрын
little pinks are crying rn
@Clarity520
@Clarity520 Жыл бұрын
@Aka aka aka 😂cope China hater. Aren’t y’all the bunch that kept on saying China is collapsing?
@KS-gf8nf
@KS-gf8nf Жыл бұрын
Anti- china track record??? How much did CCP pay you for writing that comment?
@colbyhill25
@colbyhill25 Жыл бұрын
I don’t think it’s going to collapse, but I do think its likely to be more on a trend similar to Japan a la the 90s as opposed to overtaking the US as the global economic superpower.
@You-Laugh_You-Subscribe
@You-Laugh_You-Subscribe Жыл бұрын
I think based on all likely hood, the US would collapse first before China does
@lontongtepungroti2777
@lontongtepungroti2777 Жыл бұрын
yeah, the most make sense scenario.
@P0rtugueseRedM00n
@P0rtugueseRedM00n Жыл бұрын
Dont confuse your hopes with reality
@anselmeris
@anselmeris Жыл бұрын
the video has just been uploaded but you already made a comment 😐
@anselmeris
@anselmeris Жыл бұрын
Its not even 30 minutes yet
@ShaudaySmith
@ShaudaySmith Жыл бұрын
very thoughtful video. Mirrors my sentiments exactly. Well done!
@roanora7853
@roanora7853 Жыл бұрын
Anglos are seething over a rising China I love it
@Rjsjrjsjrjsj
@Rjsjrjsjrjsj Жыл бұрын
Seething? You mean "laughing". We're laughing at a "rising" China. Because it's actually sinking. Pay attention. The COVID lockdowns alone are hammering them. It's f'n hilarious! 🤣
@carycunningham9510
@carycunningham9510 Жыл бұрын
Just a suggestion: The impact of expansionary monetary policy on inflation can be markedly affected by whether the economy is primarily financial or industrial in nature, the degree of economic maturity, and the degree of wealth concentration. If we are talking about a young, industrial economy with relatively low levels of wealth concentration, then yes money flows from the central bank, to the banks, and then into new factories, services, research and development. New, successful, products and services encourage more market entrants into a growing market; there is more hiring overall, wages and standards of living go up, and there is classic demand-pull inflation. If, however, we are talking about a mature, financial economy with relatively high levels of wealth concentration, then expansionary monetary policy will tend to behave differently. Plutocratic capture of the government will tend to be greater and the effects of policy will be more oriented to rentiers. Money would flow from the central bank, to the banks, and then into asset classes held by the capital class. While that will lead to particular classes of asset appreciation, it will not necessarily lead to new factories, services, research and development. Therefore, there will be few, if any, new and growing markets leading to wage growth and increased demand from the consumer outside of available consumer credit. Monetary expansion, however, can and is used as a popular excuse for all manner of cartel pricing, rent-seeking behavior, and proletariat austerity.
@user-pt8og3ls5x
@user-pt8og3ls5x Жыл бұрын
When a few people hold most of a country's resources, they usually protect their own resources by controlling government power, and then this country is old. The surviving dynamism of this country lies in the fact that the few compete with each other for more. If these few who own the resources reach a compromise with each other, then the majority of the rest of the country will be at an absolute disadvantage. The few who controlling resources and the power of government just will not let their resources be redistributed to the majority no matter what the monetary policy is.They just won't, even if the barbarians is about to invade and loot.
@fallencrow6718
@fallencrow6718 Жыл бұрын
@@ThomasVWorm That explains why Xi has been claping billionairs and real state developers for the last two years.
@aussiejubes
@aussiejubes Жыл бұрын
I loved this thank you. I don't understand economics & a lot of other related areas but I watch what I find interesting enough that I can learn. This longer format helped me so much, because so much was explained & brought together. I feel like I understand this video woo!
@benjamincarter6095
@benjamincarter6095 Жыл бұрын
I agree with you, though this is going to be a rough winter.
@justinmoser6163
@justinmoser6163 Жыл бұрын
A well written video, I appreciate that!
@GarrickPinon
@GarrickPinon Жыл бұрын
I sat in on a class at Stanford and the professor who was originally from Taiwan explained the cultural nuance in Asia of the focus being on maintaining what’s been grown which is quite different from our western growth economics model. I think there’s room in the conversation around ‘collapsing economies’ as well to creating understanding around nuanced definitions of “thriving.”
@aroto
@aroto Жыл бұрын
Wow, this was like a mini docu, great work to you and your team, you guys have been really productive lately. You make it easy for me to follow and understand these topics if though I am clueless about economics😂
@TheMrFishnDucks
@TheMrFishnDucks Жыл бұрын
Fantastic video. The lessons in the end about the click-bait and collapse are very important, those hoping for them need to go outside and touch grass. Keep up the good work.
@lilgypsy_eddie1408
@lilgypsy_eddie1408 Жыл бұрын
Great 👍 video mate thanks for the content!
@me0101001000
@me0101001000 Жыл бұрын
I think the problem with the analysis of China collapsing in a certain amount of time is that it sees it from a very Western lens. On one hand, a good parallel would be looking at Japan, and how it prop itself up, but it went through a very long, very slow, and very painful collapse. And on another, the nature of China's command economy means that it is able to prop itself up long after it's supposed to collapse. So in some senses, process of collapses already begun, and people in China are already beginning to feel the consequences. But as far as the country itself collapsing, that's not going to happen. The government has too much power.
@SuhaibZafar
@SuhaibZafar Жыл бұрын
You can't avoid demographic collapse. That's just a fact. China is going to collapse because its demographics are HIGHLY unfavorable.
@GrigRP
@GrigRP Жыл бұрын
It's just American wet dreams.
@NityaStriker
@NityaStriker Жыл бұрын
When Japan’s economy started stagnating in 1995, Japan GDP per capita was much higher than US’s. Even if China GDP growth rate slows down, it still has a lot of space to grow.
@TheReferrer72
@TheReferrer72 Жыл бұрын
Too much power? that's what we thought about the USSR then look what happened. While I agree with this video too many variables to say what happens to China especially if they pivot.
@archieames1968
@archieames1968 Жыл бұрын
The collapse theories are based on what would get a government in a Western Democracy thrown out of office but China could literally fall to North Korea levels of starvation and their regime may still cling to power.
@markaberer
@markaberer Жыл бұрын
Let's hope your video will be in the millions of views like the other ones you've mentioned! And let's hope that EE won't be collapsing in 36 days and 7 hours.
@theknifesong
@theknifesong Жыл бұрын
Thank You! I've definetly been keeping a closer eye on the Chinese since I subscribed to your channel
@z_hui8320
@z_hui8320 Жыл бұрын
Thank you for your reasonable analysis, it is much needed these days
@jdmfan2170
@jdmfan2170 Жыл бұрын
you can live on 14k a year if the cost of living in china is significantly low compared to the west. the average income in here in the UK is significantly less than America (And we are feeling it) but no one says we are a poor country.
@elon6784
@elon6784 Жыл бұрын
Whats the avg income in uk?
@jacobbaumgardner3406
@jacobbaumgardner3406 Жыл бұрын
That’s because Brits pay higher taxes. This means lower incomes but greater benefits. Americans enjoy a higher disposable income but overall receive less benefits. They key is disposable income. Even in Shanghai where the average income is upwards of twice that of the national average, even in the poorest American states you’ll find that everyone has an iPhone.
@stephenj5432
@stephenj5432 Жыл бұрын
@@elon6784 around $40,000 at todays exchange rate.
@elon6784
@elon6784 Жыл бұрын
@@stephenj5432 a year/ family?
@drunkensailor112
@drunkensailor112 Жыл бұрын
@@elon6784 a year per person. It is just slightly higher here in the Netherlands.
@AnonymousAlcoholic772
@AnonymousAlcoholic772 Жыл бұрын
I think the biggest issue with the housing bubble in China is that its combined with population decline. Rapid population readjustment. So instead of real estate losing some value as happens during normal real estate cycles, the loss of value in Chinas case will be extreme.
@andrethorpe6183
@andrethorpe6183 Жыл бұрын
The negative adjustment will probably not be any different to that being experienced in North America.. Here in Canada, as baby boomers retire we are seeing significant difficulties complicated by the over excessive money printing low cost support of our "too big to fail" corporate interests that are impacting the baby boomer retirement group .... We live in volatile economic times. The low income yield being experienced on investments are proving an uncertain financial risk for a comfortable retirement.
@ephraimboateng5239
@ephraimboateng5239 Жыл бұрын
If only housing wasnt a monetary asset. It would fix so much
@justinedwards2496
@justinedwards2496 Жыл бұрын
That’s true but most purchases are also second or third homes and are never actually meant to be lived in so it’s hard to tell if it will actually affect it since owned homes are already not being lived in
@calebbowman5951
@calebbowman5951 Жыл бұрын
@@andrethorpe6183 it will be very different because the population collapse is way worse because of the one child policy. So yeah similar to Canada but way worse.
@j2174
@j2174 Жыл бұрын
@@andrethorpe6183 Canada’s population is increasing. China’s is drastically decreasing.
@Kes77777
@Kes77777 Жыл бұрын
Thanks for the reasonable, detailed, pragmatic viewpoint
@cloudwithwind574
@cloudwithwind574 11 ай бұрын
On KZbin, China has been experiencing economic collapse since 20 years ago until now
@davidbelk46
@davidbelk46 Жыл бұрын
I think a major problem with all of these commentaries on China's future have to do with arguments about whether or not China will "collapse" as opposed to addressing exactly how bad their recession might be. By how much will China's GDP likely contract over the next two years? 5%? 10%? 30%? How much would a 5% contraction in the world's number two economy affect the rest of us vs. a 30% contraction? I think you could safely argue that the United States economy didn't exactly "collapse" between 1929 and 1932, but things got pretty bad both in the US and around the world as a result of that recession. I'm not saying that will be the overall effect of China's recession, but I do have trouble believing that China's economic downturn won't have significant effects on the global economy as a whole.
@riversedgegoatdairy297
@riversedgegoatdairy297 Жыл бұрын
Good points. Perhaps collapse translates to meaning. Easy money making will be long gone for a long period of time. Earning millions or billions will require work. Brain power, raiky investment...... the easy life or riding the curve are gone, for now.
@shanerooney7288
@shanerooney7288 Жыл бұрын
If in 2022 China's economy contracted by 5% their economy would be at 2021 levels. If in 2022 it contracted by 30% they would be at 2016 levels. The current "slow down" of China's economy is just a slow down in how fast they are still growing. Even in 2019 when the whole world shut down, China's economy still grew by 2.24%. Their worst year is what most countries consider a good year.
@Homer-OJ-Simpson
@Homer-OJ-Simpson Жыл бұрын
Collapse is all subjective- there is no exact definition. What is certain is that it looks increasingly likely that China will have relatively low growth rate moving forward and that they will victim to the middle income trap. Unlike say it’s neighbors Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore who all went from poor to upper income nation over 40-50 year period.
@worndown8280
@worndown8280 Жыл бұрын
@@shanerooney7288 Thats not how percentages work. If you have something worth say $100 dollars and in increases by 100%, it is now worth $200. but if it loses 50% of its value its back to $100 again. If China' GDP contacted by 30% it would take them far further back than 2017. And thats only if you do believe their numbers. If you do, well there is a word for that.
@worndown8280
@worndown8280 Жыл бұрын
@@Homer-OJ-Simpson China will never get there. It missed that boat by being 30 years late to the party. You have all these exporting nations in the far east and in Europe and South America who have imploding demography. Who is going to buy their products? Not the US, we cant buy it all. Who then? Sub Saharan Africans? I dont think people understand whats down the road with a smaller human footprint. And it wont be slow, it will be a cliff dive. In the next 20 years China will lose anywhere from 500-600 million people. Just from aging. Last year Japan lost 400k people from their total population, and its only going to grow from there. The demography of the current age will not afford China the same path as others before them walked. It just wont be there.
@babyimHOME
@babyimHOME Жыл бұрын
thanks for making this, because as you said, there are SO many articles writing the same side...that's probably not going to happen. A more balanced analysis like this is a breath of fresh air.
@bernardovalero8225
@bernardovalero8225 Жыл бұрын
New to the channel. Great content
@spyrossrules
@spyrossrules Жыл бұрын
Nice well measured perspective. Especially the end is good commentary on why ppl keep going on about China collapsing
@Jason-io9zg
@Jason-io9zg Жыл бұрын
There is also a difference between Japan and China is that China has a stronger military force than Japan and it is hard to force china to sign deal similar with Plaza Accord that force of appreciation of JPY making jp company less competitive.
@siarnaqfrost4968
@siarnaqfrost4968 Жыл бұрын
One thing also worth mentioning is that China was never occupied by the west post war. They don't have the strings to pull it down hard like they did in Japan.
@markbarta2369
@markbarta2369 Жыл бұрын
Plaza Accords didn't stop Japan, that was something they could have easily overcome, they were still booming years after in fact. What stopped Japan was Japan's Demographics. Their ability to grow domestically peaked, then stagnated, and then slumped for awhile as their labor pool ran out and they had to pursue other options.
@thomaszhang3101
@thomaszhang3101 Жыл бұрын
What’s worse than the Plaza Accord was the Japanese semiconductor industry getting squashed completely. It was a pillar of the Japanese economy and high hopes were given for high tech fields like such to carry the Japanese growth well into the 21st century. But nope, Japan was simply too small in size and weak compared to the US to withstand a combination of political, economical, technological, and military struggle.
@Homer-OJ-Simpson
@Homer-OJ-Simpson Жыл бұрын
Plaza Acccord? Japan and Germany were both part of the plaza accord and look at how well Germany has done. I’m addition, Japan had its best 5yr gdp growth since 1960’s after signing the plaza accord in the mid 80’s. Stop spreading misinfo What’s worse for CN is that have alienated half the world GDP which is leading actively de coupling from China while Japan didn’t face that issue.
@Homer-OJ-Simpson
@Homer-OJ-Simpson Жыл бұрын
@@thomaszhang3101 stop spreading misinfo. What political and military and economic struggle enacted by the U.S. lead to Japans economic downfall? The video did great job of explaining all the massive issues Chinas faces form demographic to housing to banking. 50 centers just want to spread disinfo What’s worse for CN is that have alienated half the world GDP which is leading actively de coupling from China while Japan didn’t face that issue.
@inigobantok1579
@inigobantok1579 Жыл бұрын
Manufacturing and productive output is still the best economic metric of them all and although China has its massive economic issues and impediments, they still have that manufacturing base unmatched against the rest of the world.
@wutim6472
@wutim6472 Жыл бұрын
YES CHINA IS JUST USING SOFT POWER AND ECONOMICS NOT USING MILITARY FORCE
@chadleach6009
@chadleach6009 Жыл бұрын
Agreed but if people are locked down and unable to work, what good does that infrastructure do? There are video's from Shanghai ports that have been shuttered entirely for over a week now with cargo trucks parked up and down numerous streets in the city, because where else are would they? They've never been grounded to a halt like this before.
@BulletRain100
@BulletRain100 Жыл бұрын
You make a good point as long as you can ignore what the manufacturing and productive output are actually for. The majority of China's manufacturing and production is made for internal consumption, and that internal consumption is for infrastructure projects and other subsidized economic initiatives that provide no economic value. They are essentially making and producing useless things way beyond what normal demand actually needs. This model can last as long as the Chinese government is willing to waste money just to keep people employed. It was easy to do when growth was large and it was easy to get foreign capital, but those times look to be over.
@anmolpatel793
@anmolpatel793 Жыл бұрын
@@BulletRain100 China still attracts lots of foreign investments in fact more than USA
@brednbudr2406
@brednbudr2406 Жыл бұрын
@@wutim6472 calm down Wumao
@TheArt0053
@TheArt0053 Жыл бұрын
These videos are the best! Thanks
@Aiunar
@Aiunar Жыл бұрын
Awesome video. Love your content. Thanks!
@KevinLambertperfected
@KevinLambertperfected Жыл бұрын
Seeing you deal with the situation of 'getting scooped' with a video idea by just praising them and shouting them out is awesome
@ac8760
@ac8760 Жыл бұрын
There is a funny Chinese saying: "An impoverished camel is still bigger than a horse", which I think applies very well here. Something that size is not going to go down easily, quickly, or quietly. If it does, anyone tied to it, and in today's globalized economy, that is practically everyone, will likely suffer injury as it thrashes on the way down.
@Obscurai
@Obscurai Жыл бұрын
The western phrase is "When the elephant sneezes, everyone catches a cold".
@Articulate99
@Articulate99 7 ай бұрын
Always interesting, thank you.
@obamacare9681
@obamacare9681 Жыл бұрын
I've noticed heaps of those videos popping up in the algorithm. It's good to see a cool head discussing the topic
@nocabgamedesign4832
@nocabgamedesign4832 Жыл бұрын
The questions you ask in each video are usually spot on with the questions that I've asked myself in the recent past, and your analysis and explanation of the underlying principles is always informative! Great video as always.
@Manisha.bhardwaj._
@Manisha.bhardwaj._ Жыл бұрын
Thank you so much for sharing such topic ❤️
@chvhndrtntlr3482
@chvhndrtntlr3482 Жыл бұрын
Wow....people should questioning this kind of content instead, why they massively say that china will collapse and why they persistent about it. It's kinda sus
@bradleybprentice1497
@bradleybprentice1497 Жыл бұрын
Thank you. So well done. Your contribution is appreciated.
@user-vw4eq6ei7y
@user-vw4eq6ei7y Жыл бұрын
TeXtMe DiReCtLy🚀🚀
@edvard4068
@edvard4068 Жыл бұрын
Great video. You missed one crucial aspect though. The reason for all this unrest was because the state backed banks and state backed builders decided to lower the price for home buyers. This inturn made everyone who have already have mortgage ask the companies if they can lower the price for existing customers as well, they didn't. This resulted in people stop paying their mortgages that is now threatening the chinese economy. The reason why the chinese state lowered the price was because the market was crashing due to all the stress from failing companies like, evergrande. So usurping the old aboned projects to stimulate the economy is not an option since the money is already spent. Besides that great video, as always a good summery of the situation and it's aspects.
@tuurderom2017
@tuurderom2017 Жыл бұрын
@Economics_Explained could you shadowban the bot that is claiming to be you
@riversedgegoatdairy297
@riversedgegoatdairy297 Жыл бұрын
Demographicsos also a topic that isnt discussed much neither. The chinese population is aging fast. In about 30 years or less, the population will be hald of what it is today, unless people start having more babies! Sure the population has room to keep working and manufacturing for the next decade or so, but that rate of those enreri f the cities is slowing. This slow growth of working population? Means they will need to have immigration much the same as western countries. How many people move to china?
@tempestmars123
@tempestmars123 Жыл бұрын
@@riversedgegoatdairy297 AI is quite advance in China and the Chinese do not detest machines. In fact, there are robots installed in places to replace labour already. A smaller population combined with machinery labour means a better life quality.
@riversedgegoatdairy297
@riversedgegoatdairy297 Жыл бұрын
@@tempestmars123 artificial intelligence, works in a society that has wealth, scarcity and poverty. If the chinese are not wealthy, nor impoverished, what will drive AI investment?
@ephraimboateng5239
@ephraimboateng5239 Жыл бұрын
@@riversedgegoatdairy297 literaly every video talking about china mentions demographics in them, 99% of the time lol. Actualy, Videos on the future of Eastern Europe fail to mention that at all, even if certain countries have a failling population RIGHT NOW
@andrewjones2132
@andrewjones2132 Жыл бұрын
It's good you mentioned the massive heat wave in China. If China has to import more food as a result, this will impact everyone.
@karenwang313
@karenwang313 Жыл бұрын
Not really everyone, just the countries that need to import food. Food exporters like the US can choose to prioritize their own people over exporting their food. I've heard India is doing something like that right now, and I think alot more countries will follow along if things start to get bad enough to cause food insecurity
@duckpotat9818
@duckpotat9818 Жыл бұрын
@@karenwang313 true, the real loser would be Africa unfortunately, through no fault of their own. The Americas, India, Russia and SEA are relatively self sufficient. China has massive reserves. Japan, SK and Europe can afford the higher prices.
@somethingelse9535
@somethingelse9535 Жыл бұрын
@@duckpotat9818 Exacerbated by the war in the Ukraine, a huge food bowl for Africa offline. China has banned exports of Urea too. There goes the world supply of fertiliser. It's a perfect storm.
@ernestkhalimov1007
@ernestkhalimov1007 Жыл бұрын
@@somethingelse9535 except Ukraine isnt nthe food bowl for Africa since wheat isn't a staple grain in Africa which is rice
@user-eq9vk7ql6o
@user-eq9vk7ql6o 11 ай бұрын
Monday, Wednesday, Friday: Collapse Day; Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday:Threat Day; Sunday : off-day
@arcetus
@arcetus Жыл бұрын
Hey bro question: If a country has dumb amount of reserves then can it really soften the blow and might even prevent a depression or recession?? And if it can then when does this system starts showing cracks
@vjbd2757
@vjbd2757 Жыл бұрын
China is like the black knight from Monty Python series. No matter what crisis hits them like the Ever Grande crisis and Zero Covid Policy they will just tell the world that it's "Just a flesh wound".
@travisfubu9053
@travisfubu9053 Жыл бұрын
Stay mad about it lol
@SKa-tt9nm
@SKa-tt9nm Жыл бұрын
@@travisfubu9053 he… doesn’t sound mad.
@heyitsrayrui
@heyitsrayrui Жыл бұрын
Because tens of millions died due to famine and war already in the last few generations and there’s still ~1.5 billion of us left. 😂
@theYoutubeHandle
@theYoutubeHandle Жыл бұрын
comparing to what they have been through in the past, it is.
@ppmny7015
@ppmny7015 Жыл бұрын
"All right, we'll call it a draw!"
@reddead2067
@reddead2067 Жыл бұрын
Excellent video. Thank you Economic Explained team for all the hard work and research.
@mr.sombra8257
@mr.sombra8257 Жыл бұрын
The conclusion 👌 magnifique everything that comes to my mind, but in words and on a video, so many people can hear it and think about it too...
@jaccmmm3019
@jaccmmm3019 Жыл бұрын
Thank you very much for making this vdo, this very kind of vdo that make sense!!! Very much appreciated the amount of work that would have to put in to make it. 👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍
@DemonNitrix
@DemonNitrix Жыл бұрын
Tbh, the way people have been using "collapse" over the decades has made the word, more like stagnation than full blown collapse... been seeing videos since 2016 saying the US will collapse every single year and even from the dawn of our country being made, people have always been saying that. so am totally numb to the word collapse. And in Chinas case i also see stagnation not a collapse.
@Florkl
@Florkl Жыл бұрын
When you show China imports by country, I wish you’d have included it as a relative figure to their economies overall. A loss of 160 billion worth if exports will hit Australia an order of magnitude harder than a loss of 180 billion will hurt the US (around 10% and less than 1% of their GDPs, respectively), and Japan (~4%) and the EU (~1%) losses hover somewhere between that. (Note GDP estimates vary by source, with the EU not actually being a country so having the loosest estimate, and GDP may not be the best thing to compare Chinese imports to, but I think it can at least serve to illustrate the importance of comparing such losses relative to the economy in question, rather than just listening a set of similar dollar amounts for countries with very dissimilar economic sizes)
@CrookedSkew
@CrookedSkew Жыл бұрын
Terrific documentary, thank you kindly.
@MassiveChetBakerFan
@MassiveChetBakerFan 7 ай бұрын
Interesting intonation at the end of many sentences.
@rishiarora3589
@rishiarora3589 Жыл бұрын
I really like how the videos uses the sources (news articles) to help justify the argument. It really adds legitimacy to the videos and adds value compared to scare mongering ones. Keep up the work and thanks for these videos. I’d like a speculation one about if where the west is going in terms of higher rates and where that will lead us.
@aroto
@aroto Жыл бұрын
you re right, many youtubers don't use citations at all and they can just have a storyline without any proof of their arguments.
@rishiarora3589
@rishiarora3589 Жыл бұрын
@@froufroufeatherstone6291 yes we should dismiss everything as being biased propaganda 🙄
@AlcoholicBoredom
@AlcoholicBoredom Жыл бұрын
I wouldn’t put too much stock in said news articles simply by virtue of them being news articles. That’s not to say they can’t be right, but simply saying “news articles are cited therefore this is correct” isn’t proof of anything unless we take a super deep dive into each article to judge its accuracy.
@maxttk97
@maxttk97 Жыл бұрын
@@froufroufeatherstone6291 Then point me to some "reliable" ones then.
@ketercharles8584
@ketercharles8584 Жыл бұрын
@@rishiarora3589 you are mature if you take everything as biased.
@anturanggatantra2154
@anturanggatantra2154 Жыл бұрын
China is one of the most persistent nation I've ever known. A simple economic crisis won't collapse them.
@asandax6
@asandax6 Жыл бұрын
In that sense no country can collapse because all countries can rebound even from negative.
@Yui-ee9mw
@Yui-ee9mw Жыл бұрын
China has gone through many already, this is not the single one, but must be the worst one. Also, there was a crisis around 2010, their solution is real estate. So you see the bubble today.
@cabana85
@cabana85 Жыл бұрын
If you think that you should actually study history. China has the same fluctuation of ideologies and regimes as everyone else. If anything, the US has it's current system since 1776, China since 1949.
@paulywauly6063
@paulywauly6063 Жыл бұрын
Maybe its the same experts who thought that Russia would collpase after sanctions imposed after the Ukraine invasion.. That was an epic failure
@Mark-kz8mf
@Mark-kz8mf Жыл бұрын
It was good to see a video pop up on this that I knew ahead of time, wouldn't be nonsense.
@Blxz
@Blxz Жыл бұрын
Love that you keep your integrity when making videos. Many of the "China is collapsing" channels are blatantly ridiculous. I've been on a mass spree of telling youtube to never recommend those channels again. EE, on the other hand, is always a bastion of reasonability.
@MaximusNagels
@MaximusNagels Жыл бұрын
"If the economy is not growing, corruption will eat it alive" See South Africa's economy.😔
@samazwe
@samazwe Жыл бұрын
Bro we're literally going backwards now...the Eskom situation is particularly frustrating!!
@drunkensailor112
@drunkensailor112 Жыл бұрын
South africa is corrupt no matter what the economy does
@zippersocks
@zippersocks Жыл бұрын
Good message at the end.
@ronaldl9085
@ronaldl9085 Жыл бұрын
great video. thanks!
@elcaciquedev
@elcaciquedev Жыл бұрын
I think one of the biggest factors within developing nations tolerance to financial downturn is how big corruption is
@aleshinteregger8554
@aleshinteregger8554 Жыл бұрын
hello juan how are you doing?
@icemike1
@icemike1 Жыл бұрын
I can't believe the hypocrisy you said corruption
@richteffekt
@richteffekt Жыл бұрын
Just over here, observing how you and Money&Macro are making each other better by calling each other out and then each trying to improve their points. You know, how things *should* be.
@lkd982
@lkd982 Жыл бұрын
The shot at 19:16 of the empty car park at Kmart while you're talking about downturns is so depressing, I don't know why
@roberthamilton1301
@roberthamilton1301 Жыл бұрын
Great Video Mate. Thanks. For all of us in the world especially the Chinese people I'm hoping you are correct. Thanks again
@liammorgan1413
@liammorgan1413 Жыл бұрын
Your last point about power vacuums is exceptionally pertinent in more than just China's case. Without a clear plan of succession, regime change rarely turns out well for anyone involved, especially when it is solely predicated on getting the current people in charge out of power. This is true of dictatorships and democracies alike.
@Fiercesoulking
@Fiercesoulking Жыл бұрын
My take on this are 3 things on which you need to look out for : 1. The amount of dollar reserves China has because most of the internal stuff can be solved by printing money but it comes with a price. 2. The whole how China position itself against the west and how the west react to it. 3. The more surprising aspect how insane Chinas demand on resources is not just iron ore and coal and bauxit (which you can easily scale up), but food and wood which can not be scaled. Basically if things get any tougher because less supply or higher demand(not just from China) things in certain sectors will cost more = inflation which will then bite into 1
@vivekp4854
@vivekp4854 Жыл бұрын
I think you are mistaken China doesn't put itself against the west, China position itself against everyone in the world. There are few countries that do not have any disputes with China like Pakistan, Myanmar and Sri Lanka.
@irritatedanglosaxon1705
@irritatedanglosaxon1705 Жыл бұрын
LOL.. Too many "economic experts" which brings humiliation to US experts !!! China has succeed, just look at the number of nations involved in BRI means they trust China more than US. That's simple say
@mattyghost3409
@mattyghost3409 Жыл бұрын
​@@vivekp4854 Lo those countries have defaulted on loans by China....They can't pay back their loans
@anubizz3
@anubizz3 Жыл бұрын
@@vivekp4854 The same way can be said to Murica.
@anti-bullingjames
@anti-bullingjames Жыл бұрын
It's a good video but some info is inaccurate. China is one of biggest grain producers and accounts for a quarter of total global food production. The food it imports is mainly for raising living standards. For example, those Chinese import huge amount of soybean to feed pig. They also import large portion of world production in high end products e.g. lobster, shrimp, and salmon.
@donovan5656
@donovan5656 Жыл бұрын
I live in China, and my students and coworkers have become surprisingly local about how crappy the situation is becoming here. Granted, they are upper middle class Shanghainese, but still… Not a collapse, but hard times are written on the wall.
@GodwynDi
@GodwynDi Жыл бұрын
I think what gets left out if the analysis is the state of the world. Times are going to get hard everywhere. Hard to say if it will be worse in China or not.
@rachelshengjie7847
@rachelshengjie7847 Жыл бұрын
You are so right ❤
@metalenceladus
@metalenceladus Жыл бұрын
Great video EE. Most news media of any kind sells itself through these extreme headlines. I appreciate the reasoned, objective approach despite personal chagrin over China's system of governance. The U.S. has been predicted to collapse so many times in my life and as you say, it's really often a controlled up and down with a steady increase upward. I do agree that China is perhaps less equipped to manage this than a country like the US, but that doesn't mean world ending catastrophic collapse. Great video.
@adilator
@adilator Жыл бұрын
I'm just commenting to congratulate you on the map of Africa, which you, unlike a lot of people and the media, got correct. (I'm looking at Morocco's borders)
@Knnnkncht
@Knnnkncht Жыл бұрын
You mean the Sahara border dispute with algeria?
@adilator
@adilator Жыл бұрын
@@Knnnkncht The dispute in which the Algerian military regime is arming and financing a militia of slavers and child soldiers to unjustly claim a southern Moroccan province.
@markarthsolitude4211
@markarthsolitude4211 Жыл бұрын
@@adilator How dare the Algerians arm the Sahrawi so they can defend themselves from the genocidal morrocans.
@shanerooney7288
@shanerooney7288 Жыл бұрын
@@adilator Didn't Morocco invade in 1975? Called the "green march". And it was during the cold war, USA helped out because they didn't want the area to become communist. Why exactly is it Morocco territory?
@adilator
@adilator Жыл бұрын
@@shanerooney7288 Because the kingdom of Morocco has been around for centuries, unlike the fake state of Algeria that was created on kabil land by the french occupiers. The green march was a peaceful march by Moroccan civilians to free the southern provinces of Morocco from spanish occupation. This is clearly above your head and you're very misinformed.
@M.G.R...
@M.G.R... 11 ай бұрын
26:06 19:34 - Infrastructure 22:51 - Japan over-inflated housing market
@CarlosSilva-td3nn
@CarlosSilva-td3nn Жыл бұрын
Excellent, crystal clear! Many thanks
@user-vw4eq6ei7y
@user-vw4eq6ei7y Жыл бұрын
TeXtMe DiReCtLy🤙🤙🥶
@CaesarOfCitrus
@CaesarOfCitrus Жыл бұрын
Your last part is so true. Remember the last time in the early to mid 1900's, when a certain country face complete and utter collapse? And people were desperate? I'm thinking about that one mustache Austrian who took over beer country basically in an instant. Lol
@ricardonm92
@ricardonm92 Жыл бұрын
I'm an economist who has watched every video, so I know there were great and weak ones. But this was definitely the best. Complete and with a looot of information. Congratulations on the great work!
@wustachemax
@wustachemax Жыл бұрын
*econ student
@ricardonm92
@ricardonm92 Жыл бұрын
@@wustachemax lol no. Graduated in 2015 and work in finance. Not an academic but I also have an article published.
@prasanth2601
@prasanth2601 Жыл бұрын
@@ricardonm92 What do you think about future gdp growth of us and china?
@C1K450
@C1K450 10 ай бұрын
@@prasanth2601both the US and China are healthy competition but the US Empire always have a trick up their sleeves. I really think they are years ahead of the world especially technologically. China’s aging population is a problem too as China’s economy is a lot of productivity and manufacturing. East Asia in general is aging. India will have a growing economy but the problem with them is wealth inequality and humanitarian issues. They can have $5 trillion GDP but their income or GDP per capita will be around $12,000 USD per year
@Rb-fp7mw
@Rb-fp7mw 8 ай бұрын
You might want to update this video....particularly after it collapses
@samartz
@samartz Жыл бұрын
Very well produced!
@MagicalMaster
@MagicalMaster Жыл бұрын
Economies don't just collapse like a poorly built building. They spiral. They spiral up and down. What's happened isn't some massive change, it's that the spiral is no longer going upwards but downwards. A big change yes, but it will be years at the least until we really start to see things change.
@Cecilia-
@Cecilia- Жыл бұрын
i don't think the gen population has the brains to understand this
@Financeification
@Financeification Жыл бұрын
I'm confused. If a 40-year property bubble, bank runs, local government revenue cessation, permanent economic stimulus, international decoupling, global commodity inflation, extreme corruption, rising unemployment, foreign capital flight, and population lockdowns won't precipitate an economic catastrophe, then what would? Economics is a force of nature, and a system that hasn't allowed for small periodic economic corrections can't help but experience a large one.
@joehennesey9833
@joehennesey9833 Жыл бұрын
China popped the bubble themselves with the three red line policy, so it's not like other bubbles where things were allowed to go to extremes before a catastrophic burst.
@yongqijing3785
@yongqijing3785 Жыл бұрын
The confusion comes from information sources, there's literally no good news about China from Western media, people already convinced china is bad.
@fannarh
@fannarh Жыл бұрын
Buy more Chinese stock. I can sell you mine. Trust me, China will never fall. ;)
@FinancialToolBuilder
@FinancialToolBuilder Жыл бұрын
I think it boils down to what you define as " economic catastrophe". Like said in the video, people never go really rich in the first place, so there isn't much to fall to. Corruption and unemployment exist in pretty much every other countries too and nothing changes. Property bubble will likely get inflated away... They have cheap energy from russia, and industry that can produce things, they have pretty much control on all of south asia, and are probably looking at better next years compared to europe. As long as they are not involved in war, I'm not sure anything qualifying as a "catastrophe" will happen.
@matthhiasbrownanonionchopp3471
@matthhiasbrownanonionchopp3471 Жыл бұрын
that's what I thought. I came to the conclusion of China going to a collapse before any vide about x days until China collapses, due to the multitude of inter and external problems in China. I mean throughout history this is how nations fell and this seemed an indicator of some kind of sweeping change. and the population of china seems more and more accepting of the idea of some kind of sweeping change. especially with the zero COVID policy.
@ausriusdidziokas6771
@ausriusdidziokas6771 Жыл бұрын
I agree a slow change where government hanged to be more open to international. The best way would be to grow to then have a slow stable decline because as you mentioned the economic conditions do have a say on feeling of population on economy and then translate to change of government through elections. So In China case as it is not a democracy it would have to be a slow buildup of tension then something gives either the politicians begins the change like in the UK which slowly became democratic or enough tensions builds to snap into a movement so large it cannot be stopped and so the military see that and stopped the bloodshed and the way forward for peaceful change can happen.
@kpokfposkf
@kpokfposkf Жыл бұрын
Isn't China the only economy in 2020-2021 that didn't go into deficit and actually see growth? Technically recession didn't happen to China. But to most other countries in the world.
@jamesbarn3030
@jamesbarn3030 Жыл бұрын
Very well articulated; I wish I had more time for trial and error, but I'll be 56 in April and need ideas and advice on what investments to make to set myself up for retirement, especially with the looming inflation; my goal is to have at least $1 million by the age of 65.
@dannygold9654
@dannygold9654 Жыл бұрын
You should have started a long time ago, and perhaps you should seek the assistance of a financial advisor to assist you in developing a viable and reachable plan.
@julianxavier9568
@julianxavier9568 Жыл бұрын
Yes, I agree with danny gold^^ here; I have one, she was excellent at what she did; saw me through a painful divorce and got me on my feet again.
@gracehunter454
@gracehunter454 Жыл бұрын
@@julianxavier9568 What is the procedure like? Has employing a FA proven quite profitable for you?
@julianxavier9568
@julianxavier9568 Жыл бұрын
@@gracehunter454 Definitely! All of this happened in less than a year after Janet Young Kang told me what to do. I started with less than $110,000, and now I'm about 22,000 short of having a quarter million dollars.
@metrolis2
@metrolis2 Жыл бұрын
@@gracehunter454 lol you do realize you're talking to a bot
@Luis-vx1tx
@Luis-vx1tx Жыл бұрын
You just made everyone at the Financial Times cry with your title
@durexuncensored
@durexuncensored Жыл бұрын
lol
@fjaviermo
@fjaviermo Жыл бұрын
Outstanding job. There is not a second of these 28 minutes 13 seconds I would have changed (purposely ignoring the 1 minute Brilliant Ad 😁). Thanks a lot for your work
@romangarmong254
@romangarmong254 Жыл бұрын
Entirely agree! And I speak as someone who, once upon a time, *did* predict that the Chinese housing economy was about to collapse and bring the rest of the economy with it. This was ~2011. I would love to see a slow transition to a more sustainable economic model (i.e., the closest to a free market that the Chinese Party can allow), but I don't think that's likely with the current leadership. So for now, the most likely outcome is neither crash nor continued astronomical growth, but a slow and steady unraveling of key aspects of the Chinese economy.
@chrisdrake1794
@chrisdrake1794 Жыл бұрын
Great video. It really all depends on the definition of collapse. I agree with your statements and believe that while they certainly will experience some economic pain a total collapse is unlikely. However the downside to their market is going to be an extreme one and it will ripple across the pond to other countries.
@justthefacts5008
@justthefacts5008 Жыл бұрын
Everyone in today's World know by now the "Guardian" is a "lapdog" and the mouthpiece of the US keeps on spreading misinformation in order survive. Why didn't the Guardian say something about how many US citizens died from the COVID virus due to the mishandled by the US government; and all those thousands and thousands of homeless people living on the streets in those US major cities. Guardian is sided with the US government wants to contain China for its rapid growth and with zero homeless people living on the streets in China.
@ciper2010
@ciper2010 Жыл бұрын
Great video! Interesting to hear you line of thought about corruption. What do you think about corruption in the US? Is corruption legalised in US through lobbying? Hence is it more or less corrupt than China? And following this line of thought is there much democracy left in US given that any ellected government protects more corporate interests rather than its population?
@finnwheatley2194
@finnwheatley2194 Жыл бұрын
Great balanced analysis
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