Is the World Less Risky with Trump in Charge ? - Mark Blyth

Conférence de l’économiste-politologue écossais Prof. Mark Blyth dans le cadre du séminaire Geopolitics of Risk , connu pour ses interventions provocatrices sur le Brexit, la politique de l’austérité, le populisme européen et les élections américaines.
What are the geopolitical risks of a Trump presidency? Is the era of US global policing over? What role will the EU play? What is the future of U.S. humanitarian intervention? Based on his recent Foreign Affairs article ‘Global Trumpism’, Blyth argue that Trump’s victory was 30 years in the making and won’t stop here.
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[@pompeiusmagnus2276]

This needs to be updated to 2019.

[@kekort2]

@Tony Wilson "Whacked an Iranian national hero." Wow, that's a hot take.

[@robbietorkelsonn8509]

@Tony Wilson they scary part is that the US proved to be very weak when it comes to supporting their own people. When things happen to the stock market, people die. There is a high probability that the next attack will go over the wire straight into wallstreet. In that case there is the possibility that nobody knows they have been attacked and nobody knows who attacked them. Still people are dead.

[@beau6113]

This entire lecture was great, but I still can’t get over the fact that someone out there clearly has no idea how many bullets are in a “six-shooter”

[@azuralmusic]

His image of a revolver had ten slots. 10 bullet capacity revolvers do exist though 5 and 6 are much more common. Nobody being able to name Goldman Sachs was much more retarded.

[@asumazilla]

This guy spotted he didnt have the information at least.

[@ChipmunkRapidsMadMan1869]

Arnold Schwarzenegger’s held seven in The Legend Of Handsome Stranger.

[@ChipmunkRapidsMadMan1869]

azuralmusic there are 9 and 10 shot revolvers. They’re .22lr or .22wmr.

[@hugor1338]

The revolver in the illustration he uses has 9 chambers,

[@seankim2743]

Great lecture. Tough (or shy and reserved) crowd. Although professor Blyth brought up the slide from George Friedman to point out the absurdity of geopolitical forecasting, the predictions made were largely spot-on from both men. Love this guy. Will continue to listen and learn from his insight.

[@homerco213]

Holy cow crowd, play along for five friggen seconds will ya?

[@jazminew38]

UK is missing you the Great Mark Blyth!

[@northeastwisconsinsocialis2466]

God, it's fucking hairy watching Mark Blyth break down the future. Then be right. Like time and time again.

[@NewScottishGentry]

Always a cool reception from French audiences for Mr. Blyth!

[@rockets4kids]

This lecture is over a year old now. I'd love to hear an update from the presenter on how he called it.

[@taiwanjohn]

He has done several lectures and interviews over the last year. Here is a recent one, part of a regular series he does for the Watson Institute at Brown Univ. kzbin.info/www/bejne/n6XTi2mNebSBpJo

[@jeffmoore9487]

rochets4kids: Just judging from a couple parts of this lecture (not that I can always follow Blythe's language) he predicted pretty well. The bits about "trump will have trouble with courts when ripping up the constitution" and "trump will mess with China in a high risk gamble" are right on. I'm not a great judge of his brand of logic, but I'm more interested now in Blythe's method than before I watched this vid. I'd first have to decipher his lexicon better. "Tight coupling" and "fat tails" simply don't have enough specific meaning to me..... yet. I can listen and follow, but it's not my English.

[@ghali182]

tight coupling and fat tails are basic terms for any person who studied advanced statistics. I assume most people in that room understand this and that is why he doesn't explain these.

[@thebrotherslang2034]

Yea I just tracked down this video to say that I think we got a definitive answer.

[@juleslariviere3158]

???? The Arabs conquered them flat out and Genghis Khan invaded them. Many Iranians today are highly educated and all are subjugated by the clerics. Who knows what the recent events will bring. Especially given the shooting of the plane following Trump's folly. Watching that southeast quadrant...

[@garylake8654]

I am an investor, my own money, so my skin is very much in the game. Over the years, through many mistakes, or as I prefer to call them, 'opportunities to learn, if I am in the mood to learn', I have nailed the term 'skin in the game' to four core points, three of which need to be ticked to get me to invest. 1 - Do they have a meaningful amount of money invested into their business idea? 2 - Do they have the time to commit to the investment? 3 - Do I like the story of the investment opportunity and their journey to my door that requires my money? 4 - Is their future linked to the success of this investment? Mark Blyth is, as always, on the money, for society to function in a stable way, it has to do its very best to eliminate the people that top skim, as bets where its 'heads they win, tails they do not lose,' have no place in the world, because the average voter has to pick up the pieces when its 'tails they do not lose'.

[@garylake8654]

@UC-gjOYpvoAvDHTSb0aFbgMQ I had forgot I posted this, thank you for reminding me. I have sorted out a few typo's, as its hard dong these things on an I Phone, much better on a desktop. That is a dark phrase you use there, but I like it, I guess the question is, who is that administers said torture.#? And deeper still, do we invest knowing that its likely we are the ones setting ourselves up for the torture chamber, and thus our ego's get a chance to say 'I told you so' when the investment value is heading south faster than a migrating redwing?

[@narkelnaru2710]

@@garylake8654 It's best to first type it out, copy it, then enter it, and then check for errors. If there are no errors, then you leave it alone. 😈 If there are errors then you create a new comment, paste your copy, edit it until you are satisfied and then enter it. And then delete your earlier comment. This way you don't make any errors and you don't get an "edited comment." Or use a browser. 🙂 🤘🏽

[@and1111000]

Intriguing and thought provoking.

[@syntaxlost9239]

This aged really well...

[@hornetobiker]

Not so hysterical now.

[@19battlehill]

Exactly --- those that make policy pay NO CONSEQUENCES for what they do ----

[@9000ck]

This needs to be updated to 2020

[@tstephensxo]

Please could you post the Q&A?

[@cwalker3783]

Frederic Bastiat's parable of the Broken Window applies well to this lecture.

[@eliasabi-elias8501]

9:50 I never thought about this simple point. Very interesting.

[@chonnerone2964]

Love Mark Blyth. Tough crowd. Proves the idea that modern students aren't taught to think, they're just taught stuff to regurgitate and become employees. Precisely why I didn't waste money at university and watch lectures and educate myself.

[@mattgilbert7347]

"Hysteria" Jeepers, he sounds so much like the lead singer from Def Leppard. Great talk, better with hindsight.

[@reganovich]

34m 40secs M'on the lads!! COYBIG, COYBIG!!!

[@andywalker9079]

Excellent

[@spartacusforlife1508]

Is collective idiocy possible? One example is western nations centrist politicians inability to deal with globalisation thus leading to trump and brexit

[@nicestguyinhouse6112]

Yes, people are stupid and in numbers even stupider, not necessarily in intellectual ways but emotionally. As soon as emotional things enter it can be swayed any way where they want and not listen to any reason that contradicts it. The world has had 100 years of propaganda to learn from and perfect. People just seem to fall for it cause not enough time to figure it out or give it thought of mind

[@R0B1NG5]

Literal riots in the streets. Was it still hysteria?

[@1Three8Fiver]

Yes their hysterics and hyperbole instigated them.

[@dumbfoundedagain]

Excellent, and nice comments on New Zealand hehe

[@g.gibson7781]

I have often wondered why the affected nations of the EU, beset with the fallout of US foreign policy, don't send the US a big fat INVOICE for damages incurred.

[@Beretta249]

Goddamn that class sat there like stun-gunned goats. "Has anyone gambled?" "Do you understand russian roulette?" Total silence. Jesus wept.

[@mavr1215]

I had to laugh about buying tickets to New Zealand! As this pandemic escalated in early March, heaps of private jets flew into the country! This chap seems to know exactly what to do in a crisis!

[@graemenicholls2836]

Thanks for uploading - but a date for when the talk was given would be useful as it's clearly over a year ago

[@rorybone100]

9th January 2017

[@Varlwyll]

The slide on the left says "January 9 2017"

[@kingkrshna]

I want the video for the chat - the Q n A that happened after this.... Thanks...

[@kynismos]

He is right about Luxembourg

[@EvsEntps]

This aged well...

[@SuperSpidey313]

Please upload the questions next time :) Also side note: New Zealand is also my insurance policy.

[@johnsmith1474]

Asking people if they are scared is the most counter-productive inquiry available, the seriously frightened are irrational by definition.

[@JoeCiliberto]

A Black Swan - the unidentified risk that has low occurrence probability but very high impact. Does this indicate then, a risk constant beyond those risks we have identified and mitigated their impact?

[@mavr1215]

Pandemic🦠👍

[@larrysmith2636]

Although the presenter acknowledged that the audience probably can't see the vis-aid, the presenter asked the audience what was wrong with what was written on it. (They say that it is something in the water.)

[@domsau2]

Where are the "here" @ 38:00, please?

[@sas911sas]

Take a look at 48:24....

[@sas911sas]

forgot to mention to look the tables.

[@GlobeHackers]

Mark, I'd really appreciate your take on the green New deal. The first Green New Deal proposal was published in 2008 by the New Economics Foundation on behalf of the Green New Deal Group in the UK. The latest debate is between proponents of the Democracy in Europe Movement 2025 (DiEM25), led by former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis, and French economist Thomas Piketty, author of the best-selling Capital in the 21st Century. Piketty recommends funding a European Green New Deal by raising taxes, while Varoufakis favors a system of public green banks. BY Ellen Brown, The Web of Debt Blog PUBLISHED March 25, 2019

[@DonTheConPrison2024]

Very interesting 21:00 - 22:10.

[@rustedgreen5916]

We had and have every reason to be afraid. It’s it’s Thursday July 18, 2019.

[@DonTheConPrison2024]

*The most fascinating part of your lesson is the fact that Trump is unable to understand a word of it.* *Very smart Mark!* 🧠👍 *You want to give private lessons?*

[@harrissimo]

Amazing. He convinced me.

[@johickey3158]

It wasnt a hack it was a leak!!

[@necaacen]

tough crowd

[@IHSchwingo]

Mark was on point about most things concerning Trump, just not about how much the RNC would turn into sycophantic bootlickers.

[@asumazilla]

Dear Mark, if I get a chance to play Russian Roulet with you, am I allowed to sell the opportunity to someone else?

[@lynnebarnes6849]

My husband is a Scott, they have no problem pointing out stupidity.

[@carolinenorman6141]

Lynne Barnes I’m a smartarse Scot no double t in Scot

[@patriciamottet4307]

ce n est pas traduit ?

[@patrickholt2270]

Professor Blyth doesn't speak French - like most Britons, desolee.

[@taiwanjohn]

Actually (if I remember correctly) he does speak both French and German, but probably not at the level required for a lecture like this.

[@GonzoTehGreat]

Hopefully Google will eventually provide a translation.

[@lynnebarnes6849]

@Accelerationist yeah, because you are too moronic to learn another language.

[@j.macjordan9779]

C'est un écossais vulgaire et il se croit américain. Son analyse est répugnante et offensante envers les deux sensibilités française et américaine.

[@tomski2671]

The solution to risk and complexity in the global system is to start de globalizing, minimizing interdependence. A lot of people would not like that though.

[@BigHenFor]

Tom Ski Including yourself. A Japanese car, such as a Toyota has the same number of components sourced domestically in the US, as does a Ford. Globalisation cannot be reversed unless American business is willing to pay for that. They aren't. Workers in China making Apple products earned in 2016 only $450 plus a bunk in a dorm a month including overtime. How many Americans are going to work for that?

[@TheLivirus]

That's to avoid the problem, not to overcoming it.

[@AKlover]

"Professor of Political Economy"......Not a Republican.............Thank you Captain Obvious.

[@jean-luc5097]

Yes. I answer from the futur.

[@mj.l]

0:46 it's happened

[@acendiatmedia8747]

Trump appears to be dangerous in foreign policy but has been quite stable. It may be that his apparent instability allows him more leverage in international affairs. I don't think anyone was worried about what Obama would do.

[@robertbritt6134]

Acendiat Media accomplishing nothing and destabilizing relations with our allies and trading partners is quite reckless enough thank you very much. If he has leverage he’s too stupid to use it unless of course he’s using it to enrich his brand.

[@regnichol462]

You get used to the earthquakes. Wait a few years till the Alpine Fault does its thing and it might even settle down. (Hopes and prays)

[@DonTheConPrison2024]

*One issue Mark, your laser does not show up on the vids so you might try pointing to it instead.* 😉

[@tomd5678]

Who is hysterical now?

[@Beery1962]

The audience here is giving the guy nothing. Are they all afraid of him?

[@ucdeadppl]

the french are very afraid of speaking foreign languages if they dont speak them perfectly. french education has a huge amount of emphasis on speaking correctly, so they find it hard to be confident in other languages. its a real shame tbh because a lot of them speak english perfectly well.

[@pseudonayme7717]

Ahhh, ok. Thanks for the clarification. It's a shame because we British tend to love the sound of English in a French accent, broken or not :)

[@meio4744]

They probably couldn't understand him easily with his thick Scottish accent.

[@guywilloughby5443]

The problem may be that they're using the wrong model and stuck inside the box.

[@roc7880]

I see basic logical mistakes even at high places

[@vabriga1]

I wonder, what do you say now.

[@John-fz3ij]

Please follow up

[@vinm300]

Music to my ears ! That bit about Hillary selling out with the $600,000 Wall St speeches.

[@mingonmongo1]

Really, so you wouldn't accept $600K to make a speech, and prefer a guy who inherited millions and flies around in his own private jet?

[@darrenbellenger1]

@@mingonmongo1 If the guy doesn't sell out to the first person that buys him, then maybe. Especially given that 600K is small change.

[@weareallbornmad410]

@@mingonmongo1 $600K to make a speech? It's a bribe, baby.

[@sparky6086]

@@mingonmongo1 You've completely missed the point!

[@alex-qd6of]

@@darrenbellenger1 Trump sold out to the first person who bought him.

[@ChannelMath]

ah, no chat after?

[@cedricpod]

MB is certainly placid in the face of non-responsive students .....

[@chrisbradley3867]

Love to hear a recap on how things r going because the American economy is doing great and who can we blame for that?

[@tjk9263]

The economy is doing great for the 1%. The middle class is being destroyed so your "economy is doing great" statement is partly true

[@ResidualSelfImage]

When measuring risk you need better metrics - what risk are you measuring: Thermonuclear war, Major War, military intervention and geopolitical destabilization by the USA, economic recesssion , economic depression, inflation, stagflation, socio- economic like the MLK Riots of 1968, global pandemic, global starvation rates?

[@narkelnaru2710]

Clearly you guys put up this lecture some time after it was made. The chronology doesn't seem to match. Was there just one guy answering his questions ? 😀

[@stephen0793]

An entire audience full of European students who have never gambled...sheltered much?

[@ucdeadppl]

how is not gambling a bad thing

[@pseudonayme7717]

He didn't say anything about whether it was a good or bad thing, just that they seem very sheltered.

[@wicksinn]

This is the Ecole Normale Superieure: the school for the ruling-class french people. They learn by rote and are not used to interact with a speaker.

[@GonzoTehGreat]

I'd argue not being exposed to gambling IS a bad thing if you intend to study risk taking, because that's what gamblers do. Everybody gambles in the sense everyone takes risks.

[@bjarnesegaard5701]

Wtf?? Whaat does not gambling have to do with being sheltered. A stupid ignorant assumption that shows a very negative bias towards Europe.

[@Beery1962]

38:21 & 47:51 - predicts exactly what's happening now. And with the latter, he says that's what Clinton would have done, and Trump is saying he's gonna do it. So what's the difference between them again, when they were both likely to do incredibly stupid and risky things?

[@pseudonayme7717]

Despite the fact Clinton is an awful person and horribly corrupt, she is at least mildly intelligent. Trump has an IQ lower than that of a Border Collie, that's the only real difference :)

[@Beery1962]

I'd much rather have an incompetent idiot who wants to do horrible things in charge, than have someone in charge who's capable and intelligent and also wants to do horrible things.

[@Aimless6]

Where were we in late 2016. - Obama was doing "drone strikes" every week, despite FAA regulations to prevent those. (joke) - Antifa was rioting on the streets. Trying as hard as they could to get Obama to declare a state of emergency. - Hillary was ranting about "Russian Hackers" after one of her staff leaked embarrassing emails. - NOBODY ever said that what was in those emails was WRONG !!! - The Army was doing "exercises" in Lithuania, Poland and Romania. If Hillary had won, she would have had to save face by making a firm statement against Russia.................. I reckon someone in a bunker in Moscow was polishing his nuke-button. They have been invaded by every European power at one time or the other, and they have NOT forgotten. If one NATO soldier had a "navigation malfunction" they would have pushed it. How about RISKY.

[@Aimless6]

It would be nice, if for once there was a choice other than douche bag or turd sandwiTch. From Mark's other lectures. 100% labour did not work. 100% neo-liberal does not work. Wish there was a 50/50% option. ..... Maybe target for 5-10% inflation, 5-10% unemployment, 5-10% import duties. And if somebody Dares to become to big to fail, they get smashed to pieces like Ma Bell without any bailouts.

[@DonTheConPrison2024]

@Prometheus *I concur with your assessment of the two.*

[@TheDickeroo]

One of the problems for all of us is that nothing is real until it smacks us in the face. We are PavlovIan creatures who can only operate within the confines of our own experiences. Also, we see only what we want to see, unless we have a strong sense of survival and self preservation. But chaos rules outside of our experiences. When people are stressed out, I tell them to write down all the possibilities that they can think of. Then, I tell them that what most likely happen will not be on their list. And it usually isn’t. Because Quantum Mechanics Rules. Reality is The Joker.

[@ResidualSelfImage]

international banking (currency reserve policy) , foreign aid, USA support for the UN.

[@metacarpitan]

Man, I love statistics. Such a powerful tool.

[@JLayneHudson]

metacarpitan but you can make statistics say just about anything when add or subtract enough pieces of data. Making decisions based on a vacuum of numbers is not a good thing.

[@ioannisimansola7115]

Not powerful , it is tricky most of the time , did it in the university , have not changed my mind till then

[@Doc_Tar]

So, who's scared now?

[@richardburt9812]

stopped reading NY times 2004.

[@robertbritt6134]

Always a good plan. Stop reading! There's as much info in opposing views and biased information as in whatever your comfortable with

[@leealexander3507]

Trade war = end of season hay sales. Financial crash = paying horse related bills. Liquidity = stallion bookings.

[@leealexander3507]

Liquidity actually occurs 11 months after bookings.

[@eoharafisher]

His ending bit about "three flights to New Zealand" is like the gun going off in the Russian Roulette metaphor. Oops, we're all dead (nuclear war). That kind of "Trumps" most of what he's talking about in terms of risk. Taking away environmental protections and gunning UP emissions, both oil and animal farming, are Oops, our grandchildren and the earth are dead. And by the way, I would never play Russian Roulette, even for millions of dollars...

[@mlb5525]

My economic adviser when I’m elected President. The only elected position I have ever held is President and Vice President of a union lodge but that’s more experience than the current President had in elected office.😆

[@Kharmazov]

Gonna disagree with him on the issue that EU/NATO was somehow unable to "afford" the eastern expansions, the fact is it was the USSR that overextended its reach after WWII and was unable to maintain it for prolonged peroid of time.

[@BigHenFor]

Kharmazov Yeah, like the Eurozone economies are booming right now? They need to expand into new economies in order to support the Euro business model. Putin's putting the kybosh on that, hence the lassitude of the Eurozone economy.

[@Kharmazov]

What does the Eurozone has to do with EU or NATO expansion?? Mark made numerous lectures on how to fix the Euro in short end the austerity and implement a proper transfer union.

[@patrickholt2270]

The point being that in actuality most if not all other NATO countries are not willing to go to war with Russia over Ukraine or Estonia or Latvia or Lithuania or Slovakia or Bulgaria etc. So it's an expansion which is a giant bluff, and a dangerous lie being told to those bordering countries (including half of the former USSR) which encourages local Russian-hating nationalists who identify with the Waffen-SS in World War 2 instead of with the Red Army to dream of attacking Russia and having the whole of NATO join them in a glorious slaughter and dismemberment of Russia. Which is in fact exactly what the new regime in Ukraine is trying to start, except that fortunately they haven't been allowed to join NATO yet, and God forbid they ever were. "Not exchanging Washington for Paris" means the USA not being prepared to face Washington being nuked to back up the intent to defend Paris, and therefore not going to war with the Soviet Union on behalf of France. De Gaulle may have been wrong about that, but maybe not, and he would certainly be right in saying that about Talinn or Riga or the 95% Russian inhabited Donbass region today. So such sabre rattling that only makes Russia paranoid and edgy (how would you feel if there were suddenly Chinese tanks and advanced "anti-" missile systems in Canada and Mexico, and you were told its just fine because they are just bringing prosperity) is more than stupid, and NATO should never have been expanded at all, and in fact should have been disbanded as soon as the Warsaw Pact was.

[@Kharmazov]

Dosen't matter if they are willing or nor. Article 5 of the treaty obligates them to declare war on the agressor. Ukraine isn't in NATO and still the western countries imposed sanctions on Russia and are arming Ukrainians. Not to mention even the EU started a more cohesive mutual defence policy. So no it is no a bluff. I won't even comment on the rest of the drivel as clearly you know little abou the history of the aeria, like the fact that the baltic states were independet before being anexed by the agressive stalinists regime and that no body in NATO is dreaming about agression thowards Russia despite all of the claims of Kremlin propaganda to the contrary. A 1961 quote from the Gaulle that was prooven wrong in the 1980's when Regan placed numerous nukes in Germany. It was erronous back then as it is now. The Russian invasion of Ukraine actually had the opposite effect and caused the West to look at Kremlin as a potential agressor yet agian. And I do love the usuall excuse of the "poor" Russians being bullied by the evil NATO.

[@patrickholt2270]

Just because article 5 says that doesn't mean they necessarily will, that's the whole point. Wars still are the decision of heads of state which have to be ratified by parliaments. Treaty obligations get broken all the time, especially by the US throughout its history. That the US is arming Ukraine is yet more insane risk-taking. The whole trend of US foreign policy since 1991 has been towards war with Russia, beginning with neither disbanding NATO nor inviting Russia to join it, and then expanding NATO all the way into the former Soviet Union and up to the Russian border, and commencing propaganda campaigning to the effect that Russia is a different civilisation and somehow neither European nor western nor democratic, which is all bullshit. There is no Soviet Union, Stalin died in 1953, they're just another crony-capitalist state like the USA, and it's the USA which has invaded country after country since 1991, while Russia hasn't invaded anyone. Russia forces have not crossed the Ukrainian border. That has not happened. There was a civil war there between defenders of the elected government and supporters of the ultranationalist coup arranged by Obama. Placing Pershing 2s and Cruise missiles in Germany isn't proof - it's doubling down on the bluff. The fact is that America doesn't speak for us. We have minds of our own, and there are more of us than you. It is the USA which is the threat to world peace and the spreader of instability, and everyone else knows that.

[@psyspyfpv6106]

INTERSTING, perhaps a bit complicated , but I liked the point on UNCERTAINTY , actually it is radical uncertainty, the unknowable, .Please dont make the students write an exam on thi s probability stuff

[@lynnebarnes6849]

There are lies, damn lies and statistics.

[@dianeowen5258]

"Is the world less risky?" N O JUST THE OPPOSITE.

[@41-Haiku]

What I find interesting is the claim that Trump has no idea what he's doing, given the admission that our current models are wrong. As a "Never Trumper" I assumed the same thing at the time, but now, given what I've seen and am beginning to understand about Trump and his administration, it seems to me that he has a highly predictive model of foreign policy and is implementing it relatively wisely. Maybe we're just supremely lucky and maybe it won't last, but right now we're living in very good times.

[@BigHenFor]

Haiku Metzger I think you'll find your optimism misplaced. If Trump is cutting taxes in the teeth of an economy that is, like the rest of the global economy, underperforming. This has been tried before and every time it has, you have less public services, and a higher deficit. I would wait and see.

[@GonzoTehGreat]

As I understand it, Blyth concludes that Trump's presidency will be "riskiest" in the area of Foreign Policy, which is a tightly coupled arena, where one decision invariably impacts many others, but where his unusual behaviour leads to choices which cannot be predicted. I don't think Blyth made any judgement of the President's _competency,_ only his _unpredictability._ He then made a case for how this unpredictability could result in a risky presidency. (E.g. By pursuing a certain foreign policy without due consideration for it's wider effects/implications, Trump is more likely to start a (nuclear?) war than any previous Presidents.) We've already seen heightened diplomatic tensions regarding North Korea but these didn't materialise into a war. Indeed, Trump's intervention seems to have brokered a peace! What model would've predicted that? He's now embarked on a trade war with China, the outcome of which is also unknown. This could lead to a redefining of their trading relationship, resulting in an economic win for the USA (domestically speaking), but it could also escalate into a military confrontation. Hence, the airplane tickets to NZ as insurance! Interesting times indeed...

[@GonzoTehGreat]

@@BigHenFor He was referring to his foreign policy...

[@bjarnesegaard5701]

I think you can find 100 million americans that will strongly disagree with you that they live in very good times. Do you even know what goes on 2 miles from your doorstep?

[@davydacounsellor]

None of them have an idea what their doing that's the point taking the US mindset abroad is crazy and they think the rest of the world should pay for their experience. Great lecture and hits the nail on the head, it's quite sad as they believe in the devil they know.

[@itsme-nt2lj]

Enter Black Swan Covid19

[@ChaoticOrder73]

Why do you feel that you could never Constitutionally vote Republican? 1:14

[@Havensand]

saver than Clinton

[@JulienCohenMusic]

I usually like to hear people who don't agree with me. But anti-trump people cannot manage to be unbias. They have an inherent inability to self contain their feeling of superiority and even if they try to be rational, they are so self sufficient they can't be heard by the candid

[@drakekoefoed1642]

Way fake publication date. yt should not allow this game

[@BigHenFor]

Drake Koefoed Proof of your assertion please?

[@xandercorp6175]

You know that the YT publication date is when this user uploaded this specific copy, don't you? There are no claims being made by youtube or the uploader of this video about the this talk was originally given (last year).

[@taiwanjohn]

Of course they're within their rights, it's just annoying and somewhat pointless. If this had been uploaded 14 months ago, when it happened, I would certainly have watched it then. Now, when it's a year out of date, I probably won't bother. Why would I spend 49 minutes listening to Prof. Blyth speculate on Trump's upcoming presidency when I've already heard several hours of his commentary on the actual events as they've happened over the last year? If they're re-uploading this to correct some flaw in an earlier version, or if the late publication was due to some oversight, that should be noted in the description. But there is no such mention. From all appearances, it seems that ENS thinks it perfectly normal to publish these things a year late. Sad!

[@xandercorp6175]

Yes, it's annoying and arguably pointless for you to be upset that the uploading date reflects when it was uploaded. Do you also become unreasonably angry when a photo file on your computer has a file creation date that doesn't match the date the photo was taken? Does it inconvenience you excessively when someone's birth certificate states where they were born instead of where they currently reside, even if that second piece of information is the answer you are specifically seeking? Data does not conform itself to your unspoken wishes, you have to actively process the information around you. This talk covers what it claims to in the description, and it's forward-looking emphasis is a more useful framework for analyzing the possibility space for how Trump may act in the future than many of the after-the-fact commentaries by Blythe; it's furthermore important as a record of Blythe's thoughts on this matter, by which we can see how it is now tempered through the unfolding of events. Would it be better if there was a clearer statement of provenance, including the temporal? Surely. But to get annoyed over a bookkeeping omission - not even an error, but an omission of special information you would have preferred was there - is more than petty. The video says it was uploaded March 12, 2018 by ENS, and it was. That you are drawing conclusions that happen to be incorrect based on this true information is your doing. Anyone who actually watched it would quickly realize that it was uploaded around a year ago in 2017; being slow to pick up this obvious piece of information would also be your doing. It's not a "fake" publication date and neither KZbin nor the uploader are playing some sort of intentional deceptive "game" with these dates. The next time you make this mistake, just remember it's about as stupid as looking at the checkout date of a library book and confusing it for the date the book was written. Don't be an ineffectual moron that only knows how to complain, you are better than that.

[@sietuuba]

Well put, xandercorp.

[@firefox5926]

hi i live in chch any time you want to come down goive me a call and i get the spare matress out

[@dujondunn2306]

Not sure I follow his thesis here. We should be more worried about the things we have no idea how to predict? So, if its perfectly predictable that a country is going to be nuked the individuals there should be less worried because that's perfectly predictable. There is a lot of predictable stuff that Trump is going to do (and has done) that a lot people should be worried about.

[@David-wm1vq]

its not perfectly predictable that nukes will be used or am i wrong let me know why its perfectly predictable

[@dujondunn2306]

@@David-wm1vq I was using a hypothetical. The point is not whether nukes are predictable. The point is that there are many terrible and destructive things which one can predict; the predictability of those things does make them less terrible or destructive.

[@David-wm1vq]

Dujon Dunn he isn’t saying they are less terrible he’s saying that something that is unpredictable can’t be used to work out the the level of risk in any situation. That’s what the way economics was create for not money and and bank it’s a social science that try’s to predict or explain how and why society acts in the way does it has plenty of variables but unpredictable can’t be measured or account for because they are unpredictable so using such things to work out economic out is pointless

[@dujondunn2306]

@@David-wm1vq The problem here is that he uses "risk" and "danger" interchangeably. In economics and finance, the technical definition of risk is that it is a measure of uncertainty. Higher uncertainty means higher risk. He is technically correct that uncertainty is greater in the foreign policy area because very little is understood about how Trump conducts foreign policy. However, it is not clear why one should be less worried about that than his predictable (less technically risky) domestic behaviour. More concretely, It was perfectly predictable that the EPA would roll-back several environmental protections (which they have). It was not so predictable that Trump would bomb Syria, or meet with Kim Jong-Un. The latter while unpredictable had very little consequences for most of the world, however the EPAs actions threaten the lives of many Americans (although being perfectly predictable).

[@firefox5926]

19:08 re 18th century french aristocracy v peasant re 18th century 13 colonies v uk parliament re peasants revolt v king of England re czarist v Bolsheviks re etc etc etc

[@Prometheus4096]

I love listening to Blyth, but I hope he would now admit he was wrong on Trump. There wasn't anywhere near enough 'hysteria' and too many apologist and enablers.

[@CrunchyNorbert]

Mark Blyth and Jordan Peterson both play with their wedding rings when they host lectures

[@andreyche193]

Having family issues... Noticed his joke at the start about his wife divorcing him: it's also quite telling.

[@martynfenton4862]

well its certainly been a complete .... since Biden rolled in. Not sure who is audience was but judging by silence and the few comments they were lower quartile on the distribution curve but maybe thats my bias :)

[@hugor1338]

The speaker's accent may be inaccessible to non-UK audience?

[@dimitristsagdis7340]

Not eveybody had the same opinion prior to the 2007-08; there were Cassandras that were ignored by the government, wall street and so on. There is nothing wrong with the title of the newsletter by the way. This week in 'Politics, movies, or sports' comes to mind. Doesn't imply anything about the rate of change of the referent. Just looking at how the geopolitical issues are shaping up this week. What if Trump , Putin, and Xi where painting together the swans black in Australia a few years back :-) Then there is no surprise, is there? And US Presidents do make laws - see executive orders, and with Trump having supreme justices of his choosing in place I think this is a moot point. In general I enjoy Mark's talks and he is rising a few good points (e.g. moral hazard, risk vs uncertainty) but this is nothing new and this talk, like most of his talks I've seen on utube, are characterised by too much showmanship/theatrical antics/and hand waving which I am yet to decide if aims to distract from their lack in substance.

[@dcgregorya5434]

I like Blyth and he makes interesting points but this is a long way of saying where we were going wasn't sustainable anyway and the American people are more clued into this than the elites. Thus Trump, an amateur, is tackling complex issues that need to be addressed and this is less than ideal but arguably better than maintaining course and speed over the side of a cliff. What would be better is if the media highlighted real concerns with our direction and global economic health but they are too busy chasing clicks and our politicians are too busy chasing reelection so things have to get worse before they get better.

[@MrScipio2011]

I think this guy (nice guy) will vote for Trump in 2020 if he’s as smart as I think he is, and reviews talks such as this one.

[@chrisbradley3867]

He offer's all his insights on problems but absolutely no solutions so what is ur point other then to point out problems. China started the trade war not the us and what is his or anyone else's answer to that problem dont just complain on how it's now being handled

[@tjk9263]

China started it??!! 🤥

[@someoneelse.2252]

Mr Blyth is obviously talking to an audience of cadevers.

[@MidnightRambler]

I’m not a trump supporter but.. how you have talk to demented libs

[@katcam1590]

Well founded hysteria it turns out.

[@ClarksonsinUSA]

Trump has been great for America.....