ETHIOPIA-EGYPT | Heading For Conflict?

Over the past decade, tensions have been growing between Egypt and Ethiopia, two of the largest and most influential counties in Africa. Once fully operational, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will be the largest hydroelectric generator on the continent - and one of the largest such projects in the world. However, Egypt fears that it will also threaten to disrupt water flowing along the Nile River.
Depending on the river for over 97% of its drinking water, as well as for agriculture, Egypt has demanded that the two countries reach a settlement over the issue. However, despite long-standing mediation efforts by the African Union, they have failed to reach an agreement. Meanwhile, there are also growing tensions with neighbouring Sudan over the issue. So, why exactly has the problem emerged? Can a solution be found? And is there really a possibility that it could lead to armed conflict?
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VIDEO CHAPTERS
00:00 Introduction and Titles
00:45 Resource Disputes and Ethiopia-Egypt Tensions
01:54 Egypt and Ethiopia: Location and Population
02:54 The Modern Egypt-Ethiopia Relationship
03:45 The Importance of the Nile River to Egypt and Ethiopia
05:17 The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)
06:57 Egypt-Ethiopia Tensions over the GERD
08:11 Hopes for a GERD Agreement
09:37 Continuing Egypt-Ethiopia Tensions
11:33 Can an Egypt-Ethiopia Water War be Avoided?
SOURCES AND FURTHER READING
UN Security Council Presidential Statement
documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/U...
Egypt Statement | UN Security Council | 8 July 2021
• Egypt on the Grand Eth...
Ethiopia Statement | UN Security Council | 8 July 2021
• Ethiopia on the Grand ...
2015 Declaration of Principles
www.internationalwaterlaw.org...
2022 Egypt Letter to President of the UN Security Council
PDF
A row is raging over Africa’s largest dam | Nature
www.nature.com/articles/d4158...
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Secession and State Creation: What Everyone Needs to Know
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DISCLAIMERS
- The contents of this video and any views expressed in it were not reviewed in advance nor determined by any outside persons or organisation.
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#Ethiopia #Egypt #Nile

[@JamesKerLindsay]

So, this is a potentially major issue that has been steadily brewing over the past decade. But with the dam now built and the reservoir filling up, do you think that Egypt would really be prepared to attack the dam if its interests are undermined? As ever, I look forward to your thoughts and comments below.

[@dawnmccarthy1]

I still can't believe nobody does anything about nestle stealing small villages water, and leaves them with dirty mud to drink.

[@dan_taninecz_geopol]

I doubt very much that the dam will be the sole reason for armed conflict. That said, it could very well become on factor in a multidimensional set of grievances that eventually produce that outcome.

[@reddixiecrat]

I don’t think you provided any new information that would suggest that Egypt is any more likely to attack than they were 3 years ago. It seems like you are just now catching up to the situation.

[@Min-yilal]

I don't think war is a lasting solution to a historically existing issue. Instead, both sides need to stop adhering to the old water use status quo and adapt to the new normal of living with the dam. To do this, it will be necessary to engage in dialogue, compromise, and consensus-building between them.

[@overcomer5608]

You make me laugh for real professor! Mark my word nobody under the sky try to touch it leave about attacking. The world will goes crazy the second day. The dam for the Ethiopians is everything.

[@y9731]

I myself am an Ethiopian and this dam means EVERYTHING to Ethiopians, it was funded by all Ethiopians acros the world. This is our way of gaining independence and providing electricity to over 65million people. I hope our Egypt brothers and and sisters understand we don’t not wish harm on them but we would like to figure out a way to uplift our people out of poverty using our own natural resources! Hope an agreement can be signed. Thanks for this video love this channel!!

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks so much. I really appreciate the support. It is really interesting that you mentioned the funding. I didn't go into this. But it is fascinating how this has been paid for by Ethiopians, both in the country and abroad. It really does show that this appears to be a national project.

[@y9731]

@@JamesKerLindsay absolutely! I’ve been following your channel for a while you absolutely do seem to understand what’s going on. Keep at it!

[@frogfrager]

the dam itself wont be a problem if the ethiopian government agreed on binding agreements addressing egypt's concerns about management during times of droughts and such

[@analyzeit4682]

Mark my words that Dan will be destroyed even if it means the destruction of both our nations.

[@ruggyloggy]

Egypt is losing water, that dam is ruining our motherland

[@MrX-me5xz]

As an ethiopain and currently living in Addis Ababa I thank you for your unbiased view in sensitive matter.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you very much.

[@RUTHLESSambition5]

​@@MAKMoeyInternational law aka laws enforced and made by pale faces😆😆😆 Why should Ethiopia listen to them?? Egypt is a puppet of the west and depends on them for 2 billion a year. 😊

[@Ethojazz]

@@MAKMoey which international law states don’t use your own water and if u international law state why should should we care Europes don’t follow international law

[@mj-nw5vc]

I'm also a Ethiopian and the dam is not a choice but a need a must. Egypt should understand and work with Ethiopia to share its benefit.

[@Min-yilal]

AI and ML can also be biased, man!

[@Ahmad_55773]

my friend we support and support construction and wealth for all people but there is an agreement between egypt and ethiopia the agreement says ethiopia can fill the dam slowly so that the water share from nile don't decrease we respect ethiopia and you are our relatives we all are africans but please commit the agreement and leave the harassment I shall kiss your head we want to drink get shower cook wash dishes wash cars the number of people increases and the share of water constant and one share decrease and decrease don't forger us please

[@zelalemasrat1041]

@@Ahmad_55773 I am an Ethiopian it is understandable that you have some concerns but on my view this dam will never bring any treat to our Egyptian brothers because we have seen that as the dam nears it completion the feeling of the dam never brought major damage to the Egyptian shars of water in the contrary i will expect to see even more waters to flow out of the dam as more turbines of the dam starts working .The dam is only 30 kms from Sudanese border it easy to disrupt or to damage even to control it if it harms the dawn stream countries .For me the dam will bring more benefit to Egypt and sudan 1-its construction means it will be a reservoir of water 2-this countries will get more water after the rainy season during dry seasons .For me it will be a new chapter for more cooperation's and those who thinks or wishes there will be war finally will be left alone

[@lto4827]

These ungrateful goons are busy calling Africans names and act like they own the Nile. No wonder they’re desperate to stay relevant.

[@zelalemasrat1041]

@@Jungleman707 you can wish or dream of destroying the dam but you can't because your mind is already destroyed I didn't write any thing wrong that contradicts the interset of Egyptian people's

[@mohammedkasim57]

Bro we Ethiopian we have a right to use our resource we don't need a war we need peace and prosperity but if Egypt need war we almost grow with war our father's teach us how defeat enemy

[@zewedemack7597]

In a world where misinformation and fake news are rampant and worth many folds in paybacks it is a blessing to hear your presentation. Thank you 🙏

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much. I really appreciate the kind words of support!

[@n.m6249]

Excellent talk Prof. I have learned so much as a Town Planning graduate from South Africa. My senior manager has traveled to Ethiopia in 2013 to discuss this issue. 🙏🏾🇿🇦

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much! I’m really glad it helped.

[@CoffeeSuccubus]

I am glad you're covering stuff like this. Ethiopia and Egypt are actually extremely important to the world economy through their positions in the world and their strategic values. A war sparking between these two can bring devistation to North and East Africa alike. The media and KZbin commenters seem to forget about these places and it's pretty sad. Thank you for covering stuff like this as usual.

[@SadiqBoxing]

Egypt has every right to protect its people, just because one country wants to benefit economically, another shouldn’t be forced to die of thirst. Thank you for your unbiased take

[@shauncameron8390]

So does Ethiopia.

[@SadiqBoxing]

@MT I’m not Egyptian bro, but just cause wants economical gains doesn’t mean the other side has to die

[@iloveethiopia3049]

First of all Ethiopia wants the dam for hydro electric power which means we don’t use the water that much. And Ethiopia has the right to to feed its starving and thirsty people too!

[@samuelassefa3982]

I really enjoyed your accurate analysis , I just thought it's worth mentioning that the Blue Nile is not only one of the tributaries but it contributs more than 80% of the total water flow that goes to Egypt. Thanks

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks. Very good point. The White Nile is longer. But the Blue Nile is indeed more important!

[@rediettadesse2828]

@@JamesKerLindsay noone cares about Egypt n whites opinions on blue Nile , ethiopia will win

[@smitheasydog7401]

still won't deny Ethiopia the natural right to develop the dam. Bottom-line, blue Nile is in Ethiopia. Egyptian needs to learn this is the 21th century and it cannot take most of the Nile water. instead, Egypt needs to control its population; otherwise it won't have enough water to feed its population even if it continues to get the lion share of the water.

[@lukejohn6139]

The linked Nature article reminds me of some SF stories I read as a kid with a theme like "This problem is too complex and intractable for us simple folk to work out, why don't we just agree to do what 'The AI' tells us to do". As always a really interesting and thoughtful video, thank you Prof.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks so much. Yes, we do seem to be moving into that sort of world. Although I don't think this was quite a case of asking ChatGPT to propose a solution to a possible Egypt-Ethiopia war! (Although it would be interesting to see what it would come up with.)

[@bereket1255]

Amazing idea follow and well articulated !! Thank you ! Prof James Ker-Lindsay 👍👍👍

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you very much!

[@AbrahamEtho74]

Great info! Ethiopia has the right to use its resource. Interestingly enough Egypt and Ethiopia fought twice before with Ethiopia winning both wars.

[@mrcocoloco7200]

Wow that's interesting. Do you know the name of the battle?

[@AbrahamEtho74]

@@mrcocoloco7200 , the battle of Gundet (1875) and the battle of Gura (1876)were two key battles where the battle was won by Ethiopia even though Ethiopia was much inferior when it came to weapons. Both wars were Egypt’s attempt to control the source of the Nile which is said to originate in Ethiopia. The Nile issue goes way deeper than what’s going on today.

[@mrcocoloco7200]

@@AbrahamEtho74 Jesus! This wars are old as fuck. Still I wonder if Ethiopia 🇪🇹 is strong enough to beat Egypt 🇪🇬 in a probably future war?

[@AbrahamEtho74]

@@mrcocoloco7200 yea lol nothing recent yet but there was always tensions between the two..I just mentioned those two because they were the largest wars but there were smaller skirmishes between the two for thousands of years at least 17-20 times. To answer your question though, we’re in the age of technology Ethiopians know how to fight and most importantly how to use their landscape they’ve proven that by beating Italy and Egypt both who tried to colonize them, in doing so they remain the only un- colonized country in Africa. With that being said I think the modern weapons egypt has will make it extremely difficult for Ethiopians to win this battle. Ethiopians would have to arm themselves like never before and build alliances if they want to have a chance of combating Egypt’s weapons.

[@mrcocoloco7200]

@@AbrahamEtho74 Yeah good point. Well thank you for this conversation man it was nice. Have a good Day 👍

[@tgethiopia381]

Ethiopia.🇪🇹🇪🇹🇪🇹👍👍👍🇪🇹🇪🇹🇪🇹

[@aducaale328]

As Horner informed on the issues and geopolitics of the Horn of Africa your analysis and data is very amaziand accurate. Hope 🇪🇹 and Egypt 🇪🇬 will resolve their issues through AU.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you very indeed. I have become so interested in the region. It is a fascinating area that doesn’t get as much attention as it deserves.

[@lintongrant2978]

Ethiopia 🇪🇹 upfull and strong will never get defeated

[@futuredoctor1966]

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[@BEZY-vk1hy]

Egypt is much more battle ready than Ethiopia

[@mackkebede9235]

@@BEZY-vk1hy tell us one war that Egypt ever won in its entire history? Just one? History tells us that Egypt 🇪🇬 has been beaten, defeated and occupied many times over. On the other hand Ethiopia has had a history of beating and defeating its adversaries including the Europeans that Egypt worships so much.

[@marko9598]

@@mackkebede9235 You worship Europians in your war against somalia aswell back in days ,remember Russia?

[@iloveethiopia3049]

@@marko9598 we don’t worship European, we humiliated European 😂

[@erictevoedjre3966]

Great video (as always!). Many thanks

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks a lot Eric.

[@paramahansayogananda6719]

My favourite time of the week. Thank you!

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much! Lovely to hear. Have a great weekend. :-)

[@euaelamare4695]

The reason the dam hasn’t been built until now is not because we scared of Egypt it’s because Egypt lobbied to the International community for Ethiopia not to get a loan for the dam but now we built it ourselves with our own money.

[@ahmedhany2152]

the reason is that egypt has feto on any project on the nile so it is not allowed for any country to fund any project on the nile until egypt agree and that what happened in 2015 when egypt agreed on the dam in a good faith for the hope that the the three countries will reach a deal about filling that dam in a way that not harm both egypt and sudan

[@liyaadam2226]

@@ahmedhany2152 They didn’t agree 😂😂 they still saying they will bomb it, we built it because we can. It’s our water and our land. The BLUE Nile is what matters we don’t care about the Nile.😂😂

[@iloveethiopia3049]

@@ahmedhany2152 if it was because of Egypt, the dam wouldn’t reach where it’s now.

[@lto4827]

@@liyaadam2226 Exactly! Ethiopia has been a safe haven for Arab refugees for millennia. If they want harmony, then Egyptians will need to negotiate with Ethiopia.

[@youisstupid2586]

Ethiopia needs this more than Egypt.

[@user-or1rm1ol3q]

We need the water

[@tonydynamite3748]

​@@user-or1rm1ol3q mf go dig a hole!..yall are ungrateful!.

[@lto4827]

@@user-or1rm1ol3q You’re surrounded by water. Use your intellect and innovate.

[@user-or1rm1ol3q]

@@lto4827 we just did dummy. We are building a new river in Egypt 👇 kzbin.info/www/bejne/n2W5oqJ-n8uVibM

[@lto4827]

@@user-or1rm1ol3q Then stop bitching about the GERD.

[@derejepetros1863]

Better to mention in the introduction part of this video about the contribution of Blue Nile that arises from the ethiopian highlands which is massive.

[@thomasjohnson2862]

Thanks for your informative videos James! I guess you reach a wider audience on KZbin than you would by staying more in academic circles, as maybe other academics do more?

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks so much, Thomas! It is always nice to think, as a teacher, that one can have a broader impact - especially as studying elsewhere is beyond the reach of many people. And I certainly would like more academics to get involved with KZbin. Unfortunately, though, it is incredibly time-consuming. Most academics don't have the time to make videos regularly. Also, the learning curve and equipment and software outlay, are very high - for remarkably little financial compensation. This takes some serious commitment! :-)

[@GeographyWorld]

Great analysis. Really an example of putting the "geo" in geopolitics.

[@mikevarga6742]

Things like this never ever make it on network news. Until it’s too late. Our media only reports drama that people have a strange fascination with destruction. Smh. Thanks James for being the opposite. I hope you make a lot of money for your service. I mean it

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Many thanks indeed, Mike. I really appreciate it. You are right. These stories should get a lot more coverage. As for the payment, I do get some from advertising. And the generous support from channel members and sponsorship from World Politics Review is incredibly helpful (please give it a look, if you haven't www.wpr.pub/jkl). But it's not really enough to make up for the time and expense of making the videos, sadly. Unfortunately, KZbin is a strange beast. It is built to reward sensationalism - especially on political channels.

[@rafapietrzak7994]

Ha! I recently made an educational film about the dispute for my university clases. It's nice to watch you and see how you fared on that one!

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Good stuff! I hope it met the required standard!

[@abegazamare8411]

The real concern of Egypt is not water shortage as the result of GERD, rather the fear that as stronger and stable Ethiopia is being born. After all this is hydro dam. Ethiopia has the natural right to develop its water resources for what so ever purpose including irrigation. The water is enough to all the lower basin countries. Lets be fair.

[@MatthewAbebe]

I agree with you there. The dam is steadily filling and no one has been harmed. So I guess they really don’t like the idea of Ethiopia being the regional power. Will probably happen before mid century.

[@yihunkusito1472]

I'm an Ethiopian and this is one of the few un biased videos on this matter. Thank you. By the way Ethiopia has the right to build this dam, Egypt should understand that it can't monopolize the Nile forever and it's time that other countries also benefit from it.

[@yihunkusito1472]

@BasantLet them bring it.

[@ouwebrood497]

Yes, that's precisely the issue. Egypt claiming the mile being there posession is so petty. Essentially by doing so they pretty much colonize 9 countries.

[@tamrasg6960]

Always support my Ethiopian brother's 🇸🇸🇦🇺❤️🖤💚✌🏿✊🏿💯

[@yeshakadmasu4392]

im from Ethiopia. This is one of the best documentary i have seen before about the nile politics. If it help look at Ethiopia as main water source for east and north part which most of them are in Sahara desert. And also the private agricultural companies based of sudan own by the saudis. And also the agreement made by Egypt and Israel to share the nile through the desert of sina desert. Two of the most powerful countries saudi and Israel interest is on the line. Its not just Egypt and Ethiopia. Thank you

[@forproject1666]

Israel don't exist it's Palestine

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you very much. I appreciate it. This is such an interesting and important project in so many ways.

[@MotiMota15]

Thank you professor, I've waited for a video on this topic👍

[@ShubhamMishrabro]

I think some agreement will definitely happen. Also James recently Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan solved their border dispute. Can you please talk about this? As not many people know about central asia border dispute

[@notdpanda9525]

Can you do a video looking at demographics and how it has shifted in the modern world and how that plays into the future of geopolitics?

[@luelsegedejigu787]

For some reason the professor didn't mention the main cause of the disagreement deep rooted in the 19 29 Anglo Egyptian and the 1955 Egypt and Sudan colonial treaty which granted to use much of the Nile water and allow Egypt to use veto power over the construction projects on the Nile river and its tributaries. Egypt always wants to keep the status quo and threatened to go to war to protect these so called "acquired rights." Ethiopia never parties of these colonial agreements and can not be bound by it. The other relevant point that the professor failed to mention regarding Nile politics is that the flow of water. Ethiopia highlands supplies 85 percent of the water that flows into the river Nile. Without the tributaries that comes from Ethiopia the Nile river will be the Nil river. Because Egypt not only wants the water but also the fertile soil that gives life for Egyptian farmers. The way forward is Egypt should support Ethiopia and other upstream countries national development plans, work in cooperation and respect their sovereignty. The policy of "all options are open" can't provide what the Egyptian want. Peace for all! from Ethiopian brother

[@JamesKerLindsay]

I had it in the script. But these were not agreements with Ethiopia. It therefore confused things as was not actually relevant to this precise story. The thing you learn when doing these videos is that every new bit of information is a potential source of confusion for someone unfamiliar with a situation. The art is explaining a situation succinctly without overwhelming viewers. I therefore edit every video to focus on exactly what needs to covered for things to make sense. It’s trickier than it seems.

[@pascualgomez7839]

May the force be with you James! 😎 👋 Great video as always!

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Haha! Many thanks indeed. :-)

[@Zeyede_Siyum]

It’s too late Egypt ✋ more dams to come‼️

[@heshamhero6149]

in your dreams

[@jer622]

@@heshamhero6149 you will see it soon

[@heshamhero6149]

@@jer622 in your dreams

[@shagtoz]

Thanks for ur unbiased analysis on the situation. Btw james i am hoping u cover the recent war between Somaliland and SSC local community. I would specifically like to know how the ongoing war may change the statue quo between Somaliland and Somalia? Thank you.

[@amk2321]

Good presentation. I do not actually think this hydro project should cause a war. Prior to the project’s current construction accomplishment stage and reservoir filling, many analysts, including Al-jazeera journalists, predicted Egypt would lose circa 25% of it’s arable land. After three annual stages of filling, this has not occurred, in fact there was even flooding in Sudan during this reservoir filling period. If the filling is complete without disrupting Egypt’s agriculture, then Egypt won’t have much to worry about, as normal hydropower operation does not consume water. Ethiopia has now built dozens of hydropower dams and obtains roughly 90% of it’s electricity from these sources. I would personally like to see Ethiopia diversifying into geothermal and wind power to complement it’s hydropower. This would reduce Ethiopia’s reliance on hydropower and ensure it has access to reliable electricity during periods of drought when reservoir levels reduce. It would also reduce tensions with it’s neighbours this way and have the opportunity to export surplus power.

[@johnhoag7819]

Wind and SOLAR for Ethiopia

[@seneca983]

"normal hydropower operation does not consume water" In this case it will consume some because the dam's reservoir increases the surface area from which water evaporates. However, this should be a smaller problem than in the case of of the Aswan dam because the GERD's reservoir is smaller than Lake Nasser and is located in a less hot and arid area.

[@amk2321]

@@seneca983 You are correct. There will be higher rates of evaporation. However, Ethiopia has tried to minimise this by selecting an area surrounded by mountains, which is said to reduce the rate. Moreover, evaporation is suppressed by the Saddle dam which prevents the reservoir from expanding further, protects Sudan and increases the height of the reservoir to increase power generation.

[@birhanjommy]

Yes, the diversification of the electricity generation is taken into account, but the Hydro dam is currently the cheapest option. If the country produces surplus power and is able to generate capital out of sale in the coming years, diversification can begin through geothermal, solar and wind plants.

[@amk2321]

@@birhanjommy Yes, Ethiopia can use the proceeds of hydropower exports to construct new power projects.

[@williamlloyd3769]

Given location of Grand Renascence dam is near the boarder with Sudan, the fact that Ethiopia needs to release water to produce electricity ( note - dam was not designed for irrigation), Sudan has its own dam just over the boarder, yes filling dam over the last three years during Nile flood season raised tensions; it appears that when dam is in full operation in 2024, risk of conflict will be significantly reduced. PS - it remains to be seen if Ethiopia ultimately benefits from electrical base load provided by the dam.

[@tauceti8060]

Why wouldn't it benefit?

[@defective6811]

The dam may be meant for hydroelectric use, but deriving irrigation water from the reservoir was always a part of this. I'm not sure what made you think otherwise.

[@michaelotieno6524]

Ethiopia has refused to give details on capacity of the dam and flow rates how will others know if the amount of water without those details.

[@koontekinte0]

thank you very much for the video, professor. I have been following that specific subject for the better part of the last decade and specifically, I follow water related conflicts. I don't see how both nations can have their interests served in this situation. seeing as Egypt does not hold any leverage over Ethiopia, I would suggest the Egyptian government prepare a plan B for immediate application (namely, desalinating, sewage treatment to the point where water are good enough for agriculture, water conservation practices etc.). it would be nice to solve this conflict peacefully, but Egypt can only do that once it is no longer 100% dependent on the Nile. in such a situation, indeed, any dam construction becomes a fight for life and death and hence, unsolvable.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much Rafi. It is such an interesting topic and yet it has received very little wider International attention. The study I mentioned at the end (and linked to it in the description) is worth looking at. It does appear to lay out the basis for compromise.

[@assertivekarma1909]

I have a lot of sympathy for Ethiopia, but to suggest any country has the right to egregiously divert a river, depriving people downstream is preposterous. The Nile is integral to Egypt for millennium. The Suez canal is an important leverage chip. How the dam is implemented matters. Maybe both countries need to curb their problematic population growth...

[@redseayouth9119]

@@assertivekarma1909 divert river? lol, you are clueless on how hydro dams operate! do your research before you comment

[@lto4827]

@@assertivekarma1909 The Blue Nile waters will only be diverted if the Arab Republic of Egypt decides to attack Ethiopia.

[@heshamhero6149]

@@lto4827 you wish just remember Syria also tried it against Isn'treal and Isn'treal bombed it.

[@kangmoabel]

Ethiopia the land of origin ❤❤🇪🇹🇪🇹🇪🇹🇪🇹

[@citizenm9590]

Blue Nile is known to have overflooding the dam actually is very beneficial for Egypt. I live in Algeria the issue here is that America is also using Egypt to prevent the development of East Africa since China is main player in the project and the West would like ideally like to keep Africa in poverty to be able to gain the resources for pennies and huma capital who flee due to poverty. African Union should keep this in mind Egypt lack of regard for development for East Africa as it reside in Africa as Egypt gets most of its arms through America they are a puppet to America.

[@assertivekarma1909]

Wow, you are a sad little propaganda monkey

[@amazingdude7617]

As an Egyptian I sadly agree with this

[@ouwebrood497]

It's the geopolitics always. So done with the hegemony of the USA.

[@benqurayza7872]

Is America indeed behaving that way? Do you have evidence for your assertion?

[@nathanolson3135]

Finally someone said the real truth . Egypt is one those country that is actually Detriment to Africa development because of how much of a western puppets it is , this country always act as if it’s not in Africa . Africa literally has everything it need to prosper as long as all African countries start to act United and stop being divided and exploited by outsiders.

[@henokberhanuberhanu9591]

Best analyst ever ... well done 👍

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you very much!

[@MrSomervillen]

Great video, as always

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks a lot Russell. Really appreciated.

[@Todd.B]

That damn is appropriately named, GERD, it certainly is causing a lot of indigestion. Emotions, emotions, emotions, actual data exist and is being ignored because of emotions. Thx Prof. have a great weekend and see you on the follow up survey.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Haha! Thanks. I did wonder how many people are going to discover this video when searching for something very different.

[@Todd.B]

@@JamesKerLindsay haha,

[@Zeyede_Siyum]

@@JamesKerLindsay why don’t use its real name Hidase?

[@bulletsizednuke1100]

​​​@@Zeyede_Siyum GERD IS its real name. Hidase is just its Amharic equivalent. It's like me telling you to stop calling Egypt Egypt/Gibtse because they call themselves Al Misr. Since the dam is not widely recognized as Hidase beyond Ethiopia the video might lose some traction if it used that name instead. Now that I think of it "Ethiopia's Renaissance Dam" might be better...

[@Zeyede_Siyum]

@@bulletsizednuke1100 it should be known around the world by its native name Hidase not Gerd or Renaissance. Why would you translate names first of all?

[@peterkops6431]

Thanks Prof 👍🏻👍🏻

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much, Peter. Always appreciated.

[@MrTeniguafez]

What I'd like to see is actual data and research into how the dam will affect Egypt's water supply.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

I put a link to the Nature article that covers all this. This wasn’t meant to be a deep-dive analysis of the dam, as such.

[@Spicy-spaghetti]

Thanks Professor , you are a gem to the world

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks. I certainly wouldn't go that far. But the thought is appreciated! :-)

[@rediettadesse2828]

@@JamesKerLindsay you are not a professional or professor that you didn't mention your grandparents evil part for bluenile during colonisation and how STILL whites are supporting Egypt over this , no knowledge what so ever !

[@rediettadesse2828]

@@JamesKerLindsay england basically signed off the resource Nile to Egypt veto power and is still backing up Egypt , be a human being and learn Jesus always being evilish

[@noeminagy9535]

Another excellent analysis!

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much Noémi. I hope all is well at your end. :-)

[@4421gdhkgg]

Don't be fool,look at your fool country

[@waynemwangi9444]

It's Ethiopias water too. They have every right to dam a river in their territory.

[@eightyfiv32]

No.

[@tonydynamite3748]

Egypt is afraid of the geopolitic shift period! once this dam and the others are completed. Ethiopia economy will 🚀 .

[@terefeofficial7514]

I am actually Ethiopian,, as Africa we all deserve peace,, I hope we will get an agreement with mutual respect and benefits for all of us,,, I mean 11 countries that share the nile river,... I hope Egyptian will change her foreign policys ,, and world must not forget about 87% we produce is time us to use it, and based on mutual respect,,

[@ibrahimiddi7781]

Great speech thank you for this beautiful words, God bless you

[@meganbella8262]

Absolutely not long until we see something happen with this. Unfortunately, I imagine it will be a news story for a few days and quickly forgotten. Something to keep an eye on for sure.

[@fikirtemaru338]

I like your detail explanation with out supporting any one but only the truth but every ethiopian individual invest for the dam project that means you can see what it means its life even Egyptians should understand this is the time we are using our resource and determined to pay all cost whatever comes from Egypt we are no longer example of starvation and drought every year yet our water feeding million egyptian and flow Mediterranean see .

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you very much indeed. It is incredible how this project does seem to have won support from the entire Ethiopian nation, at home and abroad.

[@Pavlos_Charalambous]

I have a feeling that conflicts about natural resources like water will become more and more commonplace..

[@learntospeakamharic8323]

Awesome 👌

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you!

[@dawitarshak3730]

Thank you for such detailed report including historical facts. What I want to contribute is; from the beginning Ethiopia was open for discussion and tried to understand the concerns of our friends Sudan and Egypt. The only point that Ethiopia refused the “ Binding Agreement for water distribution based on the previous colonial era” . I don’t believe Sudan or Egypt May try to sabotage the dam in any way, as you reported the dam is close to Sudanese border. Let’s forget about the amount of water held in the dam, the heavy rain season in Ethiopia caused the last few years flood in Sudan and Egypt. I don’t believe they will sacrifice the life of millions and attacks the dam. Discussion, discussion again I said discussion is the only way out.

[@EdMcF1]

'Whatever may come, and whatever may go, that river's flowing' (Don't Give Up, Peter Gabriel).

[@redseayouth9119]

My Ethiopian brothers, do not let any country bully you!! Majority of African countries support you all the way including mine!!

[@heshamhero6149]

Bully? You people are the ones who bully Kenya, Sudan, Oromo, Tigray and somalia etc.

[@redseayouth9119]

@@heshamhero6149 you people? which people are you referring to?

[@heshamhero6149]

@@redseayouth9119 you Ethiopians.

[@redseayouth9119]

@@heshamhero6149 No I am not!! If you read carefully what my original post, it would have given you clues that I'm not Ethiopian.

[@heshamhero6149]

@@redseayouth9119 you wish We know who you are behind the mask.

[@tamru9793]

Amazing explanation 👏

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much!

[@finnishlion748]

As Egyptian we dont have a problem with dam itself. Two things concerns us 1.) Egypt’s annual water flow 55million cubic meters not to be effected. 2.) the dams (3-4)that the Ethiopians government is planing to build behind gerd which will slow the nile flow which is very slow already. I hope we could ovoid any conflict and more economical ground for both countries 🇪🇬🇪🇹

[@vitalilisau6181]

Water is generally too fast after leaving dams, it is actually a problem to slow it. Question of water is money - slower you fill the dam, less money it will generate. I bet Egypt can pay e.g. $1bln if it wants to delay filling the dam by 7 years, or it can build desalination plants for its expanding agriculture. $1bln would be cheaper than consequences of a war.

[@finnishlion748]

@@vitalilisau6181 simply menelik II alocated 55 million cubic meters

[@ernestmwape]

Egypt built a dam in the 1950s without consulting countries upstream, but signed MoU with England over the same. Does Egypt think it will attack other countries that will build dams on White Nile? Egypt invites USA to mediate instead of using AU organs. That is why Arab Africans cannot get along with Bantu/black Africans. So far, there has too much rainwater flooding most of Sudan - and Ethiopia harvested significant quantities over last two or three years. Thereafter normal water flow is expected, and Egypt and Sudan will benefit during lean times

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Yes, well, there is indeed that of course! Points well made.

[@Exxperiment626]

A shame Africans took their lands back from European colonizers, but never from the Arab colonizers...

[@neolexiousneolexian6079]

I feel like something as complicated as the Nile probably needs an international framework. Here in Canada we have a treaty with the US regulating the amount of water flow and power generation that's allowed around Niagara Falls. Although that is probably much simpler and lower-stakes, it seems to work well. Perhaps the AU could make a system like carbon credits: Every country on the Nile is allowed to decrease the flow rate and pressure by a certain amount, and if they want to use more than that, they'll need to buy the credits to do so from their neighbours.

[@neolexiousneolexian6079]

Additionally, since it's Ethiopia that's seeking a change in the status quo, I guess it should be both their responsibility to propose any such framework and their opportunity to benefit from it both economically and diplomatically. But boring treaty talks don't exactly win votes, so I guess conflict is probably more likely.

[@liyaadam2226]

Nope it’s out water and our land.😂😂 they can use the Mediterranean Sea.

[@mwangiirungu3670]

Blue nile is Ethiopian property

[@lto4827]

@@liyaadam2226 Or the Red Sea 😅

[@VladTevez]

An overlooked conflict

[@nasjbrty3495]

God bless Ethiopia🇪🇹🇪🇹🇪🇹

[@SrednyStog]

Ethiopissia

[@brianh9358]

I think what happens eventually may be outside the control of both countries. If there is no drought, and the rainfall that supports the flow of the Nile can continue while still allowing the reservoir to fill, then conflict is not inevitable. But, if drought should set in and the water becomes more scarce....then I am afraid that war could come.

[@wt2676]

_The two divergent African paths concerning the Nile:_ 🇪🇹 🏗️ 🧱 😊 🇪🇬 😤 🗯️ 😭 The future will tell who solves their problems.

[@SuperTonyony]

"Whiskey's for drinking. Water's for fighting." Mark Twain

[@mieessaayaachis2336]

Egypt historically sided with colonizers excluding Ethiopia from any decision regarding the river. I fully understand that the people of Egypt need water to survive and they have every right to defend their rights to the water. However, claiming every drop of water for Egypt is selfish and evil. We all have right to live but share resources. International communities need to help these countries find a middle ground without showing any favoritism. Egypt also needs to invest on a sustainable means of water use and climate change mitigation technologies.

[@AM-mu2kv]

Go read the agreement between both countries before you talk nonsense.

[@nashonjoel20]

Egypt is charging Ships which sails through SUEZ, I think Egypt should pay for alternative sources of electricity to Ethiopia to avoid using their Nile resource.

[@Homer-OJ-Simpson]

Great video as always. This one issue is perhaps the most complicated issue you've discussed. In most other videos, there are nuances and it's not one side or the other side entirely wrong but it's usually one side more wrong and or there is a possible solution. On this, the best I can say is that Ethipia should for sure consider Egypt and Sudan in how they proceed. But beyond that, it's complicated. It's a problem today because all 3 countries saw explosive population growth since 1950. Sudan+South Sudan saw 7x growth, Ethiopia saw 6x growth, Egypt saw 5x growth since 1950. More industries, more farming, more people -- more water needed. It's not like just one country was at 'fault' for their population explosion, all 3 had similar growth. And Ethiopia needs electricity and the river starts in their country. So you can argue they have bigger say. But Egypt historically relied on it and has over 100 million people that would be in jeopardy of that water was reduced. If Ethiopia does restrict the the water enough to cause harm to Egypt, then one can think that Egypt should have just conquered Ethiopia years ago in order to protect their water sources. And by extension of that argument, Egypt might see fit to take some kind of military action today -- maybe not a war but destroy the dam. That might actually lead to a war.

[@edafeumukoro5369]

Egypt wouldn’t win that war, I promise you

[@Homer-OJ-Simpson]

@@edafeumukoro5369 why wouldn’t they? Don’t they have stronger military? A war wouldn’t be full invasion either.

[@edafeumukoro5369]

@@Homer-OJ-Simpson stronger military yeah but the costs would be detrimental, cuz they would be the aggressors. They can’t force a country not to build with their own resources. Like you’re severely underestimating the outcome. Nobody would think Russia Ukraine would last up to 1 year

[@Homer-OJ-Simpson]

@@edafeumukoro5369 Costs would be detrimental? Having the Nile River cutoff will be the most detrimental. And it's not a full invasion they would do, they would attack the damn and then it will be up to Ethiopia to decide if they will invade/attack Egypt.

[@Homer-OJ-Simpson]

@@edafeumukoro5369 You severely underestimate the importance of water to Egypt.

[@xmaniac99]

Two of most ancientand respected civilizations should agree not to fight but negotiate.

[@danwylie-sears1134]

It's not clear whether water will be a greater source of international tension in coming decades. The cost of desalination is mostly the cost of the energy needed. Even the capital cost and non-energy operating costs are as high as they are mostly because of the need to relentlessly optimize energy efficiency at the expense of other design priorities. But the cost of photovoltaic solar in particular has been falling exponentially. Depending where the price settles out, it will probably be cheaper to desalinate water than to fight over it. People will still fight over it some, out of habit, even if desalination is much cheaper. But they'll do so less than if the incentives actually favored it.

[@jahjira3135]

Ethiopia’s right emanates from sovereignty where like any other thing the nation has right to whatever in your territory. Egypt’s claim is based on historical right which is because I’ve access to this in the past, I continue to have that right on the future. Egypt ensure this right because of Ethiopia’s weakness. As Ethiopia gets stronger, Ethiopia’s right rules. From Colorado river to Turkey and Mekong in China, powerful upstream countries have done so without question and Egypt should realise the table will turn some day and adjust itself to a new reality by seeking alternative means of water like all its neighbours in the Sahara and Arab world.

[@eightyfiv32]

Or strike while the iron is hot and destroy the dam before it can be used as a threat and while it's military has a clear upper hand. Countries don't just stand by when they see there position weakening. 9/10 when a country threatened another's existence the retaliation was war.

[@jahjira3135]

@@eightyfiv32 Ethiopia will rebuild it some day in the future, rebuild it again and again without having any duty to inform. That’s something what Egypt will never change.

[@eightyfiv32]

@@jahjira3135 hey missiles are cheaper than a dam

[@wintahabtom9894]

The water of Nile river is God given resources and it should be shared and utilised equally.

[@williamgrant3999]

Does God play Golf?

[@EdMcF1]

Pub quiz: In which country is the Aswan dam?

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Yes, well, there is indeed that!

[@debrituhalelo8383]

Egypt is selfish and greedy! supposed to be greatful for using Ethiopia's resources for centuries for free building her dam and prospering herself with agriculture while Ethiopians are suffering in poverty and darkness. Still the water is flowing down after generating power, Ethiopia has no intention to stop the water just want to use her resources.

[@lto4827]

It’s located in a region known as Lower Nubia, and over 200,000 Nubians were displaced to accommodate the dam.

[@FreemanV99]

Once fully operational the project could lift millions of Ethiopians out of poverty. Ethiopia shouldn't yield to the pressure posed by Egypt. The project could also hugely benefit neighbouring countries of likes Somalia, Kenya, Eritrea, Djibouti and the Sudans, generating a much cash for Ethiopians. In any logical sense, the benefits outweigh any potential risks.

[@user-or1rm1ol3q]

And it could bring millions of Egyptian to famine so no. It is either we live together or we use our whole army In Ethiopia

[@eightyfiv32]

Be ready to fight for it then. Just know one side is fighting for some money made out of electricity, the other for drinking water so that they don't die.

[@Cd-mi2yj]

@@user-or1rm1ol3q a population of over 100million depending on one water source that doesn’t begin in Egypt is absurd. The Egyptian government should be diversifying the way it collects water.. Egypt literally has an entire coast line where they could turn sea water into drinking water.

[@user-or1rm1ol3q]

@@Cd-mi2yj don't forget. That this population that depends on one source and 94% of it's land is desert is the most. Food productive country in Africa

[@tng2057]

It is an interesting conflict neither Russia nor China nor the West wish to take side as both Egypt and Ethiopia have heavy influence in the world geopolitics.

[@captainalex157]

Ethiopia? Not really. And Egypt is only relevant because of the Suez canal.

[@TH-qk6ez]

@@captainalex157 and its Camp Davide agreement in relation to Israel...

[@TH-qk6ez]

Well actually the US is openly pro Egypt and even supports ethnic rebels in the north of Ethiopia on behalf of Egypt as well as other geopolitical reasons such as fending Russia and China away from the region...

[@tng2057]

I think US is slowly losing Egypt as an ally (China is Egypt’s great friend now) thanks to years of US indifference. China is also Ethiopia’s best friend in sub-Sahara Africa.

[@captainalex157]

@MT apology accepted.

[@gideonhorwitz9434]

For along time looking at the rivers length I’d always assumed the Nile flowed down from Egypt into Sudan all the way to Ethiopia

[@FlagWaverFlagBearer]

Ethiopia is the source of the Nile

[@stephanledford9792]

Vietnam and other downstream nations that share the Mekong River are facing problems from lack of water flow because of dams upstream in China. This is not a right/wrong situation - Ethiopia has a right to build a dam and tap into a resource that crosses its territory, Egypt cannot survive without the Nile, so both have legitimate arguments for their positions. An agreement on the amount of water allowed to flow downstream VS the amount to more quickly would fill the reservoir would seem to be a reasonable solution, but eventually there will be a dry spell and Ethiopia will not want the water levels to drop so low that the dam will no longer be able to generate electricity, so this has built in conflicts in the future as well.

[@frogfrager]

the problem in this case is that the ethiopian side refuses to sign any binding agreements over egypt's water rights and drought management. there are even voices in ethiopia denying egypt's right to the water altogether.

[@stephanledford9792]

@@frogfrager This is going to be a bigger and more common problem in the future, especially in a place like Africa where the population is still rapidly growing. Egypt is in a precarious position in that Egypt is totally reliant on the Nile for survival.

[@bircruz555]

@@frogfrager "A colorable Right" is based on law or on contract. What is the basis of Egypt's claim over the Nile? Egypt has no right that the upstream nations are compelled to defend. This issue can only be solved on humanitarian grounds. "Do no harm," is in the convention. Ethiopia is not interested to harm downstream countries. Every nation on earth uses its resources to its own benefit.

[@eightyfiv32]

@bircruz555 You just questioned the Egypts right for water, or need for any treaty and your solutions is basicly "trust me bro" . I don't think that's gonna fly while there is still an Egyptian military sworn to defend there country.

[@edwardsnowden8821]

Check the dams Laos and Thailand have on The Mekong

[@edvard8850]

Ok but how they will fight a war they don’t even border eachother how will their armies will fight ?

[@daviddiehl-gy2sq]

Image if all that water behind the dam were to hit Egypt at one time. All the population on Egypt's Nile would be obliterated.

[@TT-yh8eb2234]

Egypt has to understand the Nile does not belong to them solely. They have a history of trying to control the Nile for centuries and even went to war with countries like Sudan and Ethiopia in the past.

[@aaronjones8905]

I wonder how much of the enthusiasm for hydropower is due to an international aversion to fossil fuel energy projects. Of course, many nations have used hydropower for a long time, but the willingness to risk tensions seems to indicate a certain desperation. This is especially poignant considering the wealth of oil resources in the region.

[@DylanRoberts7]

I think it has more to do with wanting to be able to control their own energy needs and not rely on imports, but also to one day grow their energy infrastructure and begin exporting it to neighboring countries, further boosting the economy. Plus the hydro electric dams should save them a lot of money over the long run.

[@guppy719]

If you have a good location hydropower is the cheapest way to produce energy and having cheap energy is extremely viable.

[@Am-pk3zh]

Eithopia has every right to build GRD not only one but more of them!!

[@eyobzewde6548]

Finally its done 🇪🇹🇪🇹🇪🇹🇪🇹🇪🇹 Congratulations all Ethiopians 🎉

[@iraklikandelaki2463]

Really interesting video(as always). Could you make a video about Myanmar, I think it is interesting why it failed to transition to democracy. Good luck.

[@wessexexplorer]

Perhaps Egypt would have had better relations regarding the Nile, if it hadn’t built its own Aswan dam on the Nile. Good to hear about these important but often overlooked international situations.

[@AM-mu2kv]

Doesnt disrupt their flow

[@iihamed711]

The Nile delta is in Egypt 🤡

[@lto4827]

@@AM-mu2kv But the dam displaced millions of Nubians from their homeland.

[@AM-mu2kv]

@@lto4827 yes and buried historical sites but what can we do about it now

[@Vuosta]

Anyone know how much the dam would restrict the water flow down stream?

[@bereketkiflejibicho3015]

After the the completion reservoir is completed the water flows as is before. But it needs around 74 billion cubic meters of water.

[@heshamhero6149]

@MT AU is also US too?

[@zombieat]

74 billion cubic meters out of 83 billion cubic meters or 89% of the nile's average annual discharge at aswan.

[@zombieat]

@MT the optimal size for gerd to generate electricity is 16 billion cubic meters not 74 billlion cubic meters. the ethiopians are just being %^&/h0.les.

[@bircruz555]

Hard to wrap one's head on the Egyptian position. Of course, every nation has an undivided right on its native resources. So, Ethiopia is within its rights to do what every country in the world does. And Egypt does not even have a common border with Ethiopia, and yet threatening to harm Ethiopia! That the resource is water makes no difference. What Egypt demands has not been done before, not anywhere.

[@eightyfiv32]

But it has been done before. Historicly there was an agreement that the downstream nations had a say in what happens upstream when it concerns the Nile. The reassure being water makes all the difference.

[@iihamed711]

Restricting water flow is not within nations rights

[@bircruz555]

@@iihamed711 Where is the evidence for the water flow being restricted? Wake us up when that happens. Right now, Egypt is crying wolf.

[@iihamed711]

@@bircruz555 do you understand how dams work?

[@ezanafisseha5570]

U forgot to mention the flow of 11 trbine is more than enough for both countries. So there will not be any conflict. Thank you

[@benqurayza7872]

Does Egypt have access to water resources besides the Nile? Can technology, including desalination, help?

[@RasTona_]

Short answer, No. The Nile River is everything for Egypt. Successive Egyptian governments have failed to make progress modernizing their Economy and reliance on the Nile. Equally if not more, the Ethiopians have been deprived use of their most valuable natural resource, water. As one of the poorest and under developed economies; the Ethiopians have been waiting for the chance to make use of water source within their borders. Modern day Ethiopia is also landlocked after losing port access through Eriteria and Djibouti in a post colonial era agreement with the west. In the end, bar extraordinarily long drought, Egypt is unlikely to suffer water shortage. Geopolitically, Egypt is still a powerhouse especially with the control of the Suez Canal. A fast developing Ethiopia, Eritrea and even South Yemen is alway a potential long term concern for Egypt. But, the Ethiopians are unlikely to settle internal conflicts for the next decade. Egypt is in a better position by far.

[@juliarichter6987]

Hello professor, how does the civil war in Sudan fit into the picture?

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks. Great question. Sobering to certainly watch! By the way, I’m covering the developments in Sudan this week.

[@juliarichter6987]

@@JamesKerLindsay I will watch out for it. I am living in Addis at the moment, btw. Emotions are running high, people are not happy with the government: "Big promises, nothing behind it." Trubalism ans religious tensions are on the rise.

[@jerrymergia3255]

Professor I thank you for fair analysis we hope Cairo understands there is no imminent harm to there people if the rivers start the other side will be a different story what’s making worries at this point Cairo support for different terrorist entities inside the country let’s work for a fair solution try to destabilize ethiopia will work for short run us Ethiopian no one will stop us to complete the dame we don’t wish no harm to our neighbours peace now

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you. Yes. Let’s hope a fair agreement can be worked out.

[@RasEthiopia.]

Sovereignty vs Entitilment.

[@Azrael__]

That's unfortunate. Hopefully America can do something to solve this problem 🙏

[@thekerryman3997]

The track record of the Americans in solving international problems is not very impressive, examples, Libya, Afghanistan and Iraq. I think the era of America playing global policeman is over. The Nile dispute is essentially an African problem, should it not be left to Africans to resolve it?

[@iloveethiopia3049]

America is with Egypt

[@muktarawel]

Thank you for your post on this information 🙏. I AM FROM ETHIOPIA 🇪🇹 AND but, if Egypt 🇪🇬 interested to attacks the dam. It will be dangerous for the brothers and sisters of Egypt 🇪🇬. We have the potential to do more Dams on our natural gift of our country. We don't want to enforce you to stop the job or dam. but, we have to say that don't selfish to use the Nile river we have to use it equally. Thank you!

[@sarahaziz9662]

Long live Egypt 🇪🇬

[@mequnenttakele4426]

I myself am an Ethiopian ግድቡ የኔ ነዉ

[@iloveethiopia3049]

Because of Egypt’s greed to use Nile solely, Ethiopia became the only country to go to explain about a hydroelectric DAM in front of the security council 😮

[@SrednyStog]

Ethiopissia

[@iihamed711]

Egypt doesn’t want to use the Nile solely.