Europe Becoming a Third World Continent?

[@vtheman1850]

One thing that really stunned me was talking to a few friends. I am Serbian , we want to join the EU, but to give context I've been an Expat all my life, traveled all over met many wonderful people. Two events really stunned me, one was when a friend from the UK( a rail worker) told he that he basically makes 20-ish K a year, and the other was a mate from Sweden asking me would I help him if he came to Serbia looking for a job(Ofc I would) , and these are of course anecdotal, but not untrue. Sweden in particular is fascinating, because if you know the Balkans, moving to Scandinavia to live off welfare has basically been the lazy mans holy grail for the past 30 or so years.

[@Rafal_BreV]

Great content. Living in EU and exactly watching this steepening slipery slope

[@soulbeats135]

the continent is literally in survival mode and the EU is strategically inept to deal with it. Due to energy shortages many companies are thinking about moving industrial capital over to america. This is a really bad time for europe right now. The german car manufacturing industry seems not able to keep up with electrification as well. The war in Ukraine is troublesome for european security. The US is in a much better position strategically, but also has its own problems

[@borisnegrarosa9113]

US is weakening and impoverishing EU on purpose. Most Europeans are too obtuse to realize this.

[@pratahsinnetamby]

The rich nations of the EU are still wealthy however, the more recent additions have been less wealthy bringing the overall GDP/capita down. The US's meteoric rise in GDP/C is quite amazing.

[@fbabarbe430]

Debttrap.

[@Robert-oo5xo]

Wonderful video, whats your take on Central europe? They seem to distance themselves from the west. Where do you see them heading?

[@christianjensen9174]

If political activists could interpret economic data I'm sure they'd be very upset at what you just posted Nick! 😂. Thanks for the video haha

[@AFNick]

The most politically toxic thing to say is to be honest when living standards drop or need to drop to become economically competitive. Jimmy Carter learned this the hard way in the 1970s.

[@V4C38]

I wonder why the situation in the Scandinavian countries is so different (for example in GDP) to the large European economies like France and Germany and the rest of Europe in general. Having lived in Denmark for a while now, the differences to the UK or my homecountry Germany are staggering in many areas. This is true for both the the bureaucracy of the state, but also on a general societal level. Scandinavia and the rest of Europe seem to be moving in opposite directions.

[@romkaquattro]

Hey, how's Denmark so far? Would you recommend this place for studying?

[@rcmatti7478]

Should live in Europe across the countries for 6 months and then the 3rd world for 6 months and compare the similarities and differences.

[@cr4yv3n]

Sadly you are not wrong. We are fucked. And not just "for a decade" but forever. Population decline fucked us.

[@stellamaxwell777]

Hi Nick, can you please do a video comparing the UK vs the Eurozone if you see a more optimistic case of the former? I know most of the long-term concern lies with trade, but maybe you see potential long-term trading partners not in the EU that could alleviate this risk…?

[@AFNick]

See my video I did on the UK last year for the specifics on that. My view hasn’t changed much as of today.

[@tmshfer4205]

I live in the EU and unfortunately I do agree mostly... but why are you comparing nominal GDP numbers? wouldn't it be more accurate to use PPP adjusted GDP figures? also it seems EU countries GDP has significantly improved in 2024 (in nominal terms)

[@AFNick]

PPP can be manipulated politically to make a country look poorer or richer than it actually is. The subjectivity on the PPP multiple is a problem.

[@sebsebski2829]

Hi Nick. Do you think federalisation of the EU would help with their ecomomy?

[@AFNick]

Theoretically it would, but I doubt it in practice due to the policy goals of the eurocrats and other systemic barriers.

[@Nick0wnsz]

I am from the US. I went France and Italy last summer. From the look of it, Europe as described by my French teacher is “gone” of course that means Europe in many places has become filled with foreigners trying to make a living who do not see themselves as members of European society. They are let in because europes economic model has run its course and failed. The common market made Europe richer but opened its borders inviting in millions of people from war torn countries who seek welfare. A far different reason why people move to America. Not to mention there’s no plan to integrate immigrants in mass and no jobs with high pay or social mobility so what you get instead of enclaves are ghettos. All of this and European taxi drivers are complaining there sons live at home earning 70k as a doctor in Italy. This sentiment is all across Europe except the wealthier northern countries. I don’t see the EU surviving post 2040. They cannot print Debt the way the Us can.

[@MoonShine-o5n]

Fantastic video. A lot of people my age(20s) rave about the EU and how it’s just so much better lol. I did a lot of research on the EU and came to the conclusion that it’s going to have a bad century of decline(obviously they could prove me wrong). In addition to the facts mentioned in your video, I see tech skepticism and their anti business regulations knocking them down a peg further as they miss the AI revolution(new industrial revolution).

[@righteousmammon9011]

It’s not better at all. My wife is German and I’m American and we make way more in the US . Europeans are so lied to about their “benefits”

[@MoonShine-o5n]

I understand. My friend is Irish and he said the same thing after moving here to the US.

[@alecfranklin3827]

Just a few points: 1. We’re absolutely quibbling about what it means to be a “rich nation”. Like take any European country on this list, and look at any year past WW2, and I’ll guarantee that it’s infinitely better than any point before WW2 in terms of QOL. Even modern Greece is in the 99th percentile of QOL on the face of all human history. Even for France, we’re quibbling about it being “just about 10%” above the rich threshold. Like c’mon man they’re above the threshold which is the goal. 2. When it comes to QOL, just look at where people like to move to, particularly people with money, such as digital nomads as an example. A lot digital nomads including American ones move to places like Spain and Greece etc. these people have the wealth and freedom to live anywhere in the world, so why not choose a higher GDP country? Maybe it’s because there’s more to QOL than GDP per capita. Do we actually think that will change anytime soon? I doubt it because there are even far poorer countries like the Philippines that are far poorer and still pretty popular amongst expats and digital nomads as well. Saying Europe is gonna be a third world continent implies that it will be just as shitty as African countries like Angola or even a place like India, which is what people tend to think of when “third world” is used. 3. GDP per capita is a very incomplete measure. If you want to evaluate the economic health of a country, you need more to back it up than just the GDP per capita. The GNI is arguably a better statistical measure not that it’s perfect either. But a place like Italy may have an extremely similar GDP per capita, its GNI is significantly higher.

[@AFNick]

The digital nomad argument is flawed as they are looking for cost of living arbitrages by bring their high GDP per capita nation salary to a lower GDP per capita country with lower rents and cost of living. You have to compare salaries in the country to cost of living in the country.

[@alecfranklin3827]

@@AFNick Yes I understand that there is arbitrage there. The point that I was trying to make is that there is a certain desirability to use that arbitrage there instead of somewhere like India that can only really be chalked up to an objectively higher QOL existing in Greece than in places like India that we typically associate with being 3rd world countries. Even with all of Greece’s economic issues, the country overall is far from being an abject shithole, otherwise hardly anyone would take go ahead and live there with other options available, and Greece is about as poor as it gets within Europe for the most part. Also there is a stat you’re looking for here which is disposable income per capita which is basically all income minus cost of living expenses. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disposable_household_and_per_capita_income Just to look at the disposable income per capita rankings, place like Spain and Portugal are still ahead of Japan and New Zealand although quite far behind the US which is number one as of 2022.

[@youtindia]

Try living on local wages in Portugal, Spain, Greece and then let's talk about how their economies are doing. Let's not even go into the future sustainability of the social welfare models in these countries. It's a ticking time bomb.

[@alecfranklin3827]

@@youtindia like I have said, these countries have problems. But it is a bit ridiculous to call them third world countries, a title that belongs to the likes of the Dominican Republic which is far worse than just about any European country excluding Ukraine

[@roybrewer6583]

The problem I have with this analysis, is that GDP is not a good measure of the standard and quality of living in a country. What is the point of a 75K income, when you get killed by a drive by shooting, because your houses are made of matchsticks and plywood. What about the fact that the US has such a large gap between what the top 1% and the bottom 10% earn.

[@AFNick]

In your opinion what would be a better measure? GDP per capita and disposable income per capita are not perfect, but they are a good proxy for middle class standard of living. The gap between the rich and poor is due to the higher level of economic freedom and opportunity compared to social democracies which cut the opportunity for new money to form to finance a social safety net. Most of Europe’s wealth is old money which is harder to track and thus is not factored into Gini coefficient. Because of this difference in the economic social contract and other demographic variables comparing the bottom 10% of the US to other OECD countries is not an accurate picture of the situation.

[@roybrewer6583]

@@AFNick agreed, as it's really difficult to rate one country against another, different cultures, history's etc. I think you have to look at outcomes other than economics, such as work life balance, health provision and education, crime, a very relevant issue for the US alongside drug addiction and homelessness. I'm from one of the most deprived urban centres in the UK, multiple deprivation, as we know it, but it is a far more desirable place to live than a lot of US poor areas, Chapter 8 housing? To my thinking, it's not just about the money, here in the UK we left the EU and the economic case to stay wasn't persuasive enough. I'm happy to be poor (relatively) and in charge of my own destiny. A society has to be seen from all aspects, not much good if you earn twice what I do, if you've got a homeless man shitting in your front garden and shooting up in his tent parked on your driveway. One of my personal dislikes of the US approach is the resultant urban environment, it's very poorly built and maintained, looks awful, hideous with power lines trailing from leaning wooden post to post, and don't get me started on stroads, which are efficient and profitable money making urban zones, but their ugly. Which is preferable, a culture where you can walk to the shops with very little chance of being shot or mugged, or where you need a car to go buy a carton of milk, although it seems food deserts are becoming more common as Walmart et all leave poor areas. US urban infrastructure is dreadful, hey everyone I'm rich, but I live in a craphole, Tenderloin anyone? 99.9% of the world population will never be independently wealthy and able to isolate themselves from the real world. We have to live with the cards we're dealt and earn enough to live on, and if I can cover my basic needs of shelter, food and clothing, anything else is gravy. So what, you earn double my income, does that make you twice as happy, no it doesn't. I'm a rich yank and my boat cost a million bucks, and you'll find someone with a bigger boat moored next to you, but my boat cost a billion dollars, it's called a ferry. If it was just about the money, why aren't we all living in rich oil states, Saudi anyone, not a chance in hell. Economics is important, but if it's a choice between 45K in Europe or 80K in California, then call me Monsieur or Sir, old chap.

[@righteousmammon9011]

My house is made entirely of concrete in Florida and I haven’t witnessed a single violent crime in my entire life. My German motherinlaw doesn’t feel safe riding the trams at night anymore though

[@roybrewer6583]

​@@righteousmammon9011your personal anecdotal evidence doesn't prove the general rule. How many concrete houses are there in Florida, even if there's ten thousand (not) it's nothing compared to the millions of stick built houses. Secondly, perceived fear of crime, isn't a measure of real crime, look at the US rate of murders per 100,000.😮 Most individuals, around the world go through life without much effect from crime, but I prefer to judge a place by how it treats its worst, weakest and poorest. The US has the highest incarceration rates in the world. Going back to housing, you don't hear about innocent people being killed in their homes during drive-by shootings. Perhaps building homes from matchsticks and hardboard isn't a good idea.

[@righteousmammon9011]

@@roybrewer6583the majority of houses in Florida are made of concrete due to hurricanes. The standard Florida house is concrete. There might be some stick built from 100 years ago, but it’s very rare. Crime is a nuanced topic as it’s highly localized to 1 racial group in certain areas of the US. 70% of all violent crime is caused by that group, mainly on each other, so it doesn’t really effect the majority of the population. Do you criticize Sweden for having stick built homes? - they even are building skyscrapers out of wood now. It’s a weird fetish Europeans have about one specific region of the US - the southeast - and you guys can’t seem to understand that it works fine there. Most Europeans live in what we would consider social housing or places the size of efficiency apartments. You don’t even live in actual houses

[@Urlocallordandsavior]

One question is how is the US doing so well when its national debt is in the multi trillions? Do libertarians have a point when they argue that America should pay off its debt? Or wanting to get rid of the Federal Reserve?

[@AFNick]

The debt isn’t as bad as it looks because the US has structurally underreported inflation. Yes I have sympathy for the libertarian arguments on the debt and the Fed, but explaining my perspective on each of those are videos in themselves.

[@Urlocallordandsavior]

@@AFNick There's also the social security running out of money issue too.

[@Eli-pj8xm]

When you factor in the fact that the Fed owns a little more than 20% of the US debt, the debt to gdp ratio of the US is around the same as that of the UK and just a little bit better than that of France. However unlike the UK or France the US has a growing economy expanding 84% from 2007 to 2023, while on a per capital basis the UK and France has not grown at all during the same period.

[@arnodobler1096]

Printing Money $ national bankruptcy every year. Credit card debt at record levels.

[@Eli-pj8xm]

​@@arnodobler1096 Not really. US household debt (including credit card debt) to GDP ratio is down to 74% from a previous high of almost 100% in 2008. This can't be said for countries such as Australia, Canada, or even the UK.

[@bumarangnebula2589]

In many ways, Europe has never recovered from the World War era (1914-45). The collapse of the Eastern Bloc around 1990 was an important victory for the US, but left most of Eastern Europe in a depression that likely will last forever.

[@pratahsinnetamby]

. . . and it wasn't the war that caused it, but rather the strategy of the Western European ganging up with the Yanks to bring East Europe down. What goes around comes around.

[@stealthcenturion]

Hi Nick! We played diplomacy lolol

[@kaninma7237]

Whatever the content, the title is ludicrous. Clearly it must be an over the top query. The content may be interesting, but I am at least for the moment turned off rom even looking at it.

[@zygmuntlllwaza5773]

The US has almost the same productivity rate as most of western Europe. The reason they earn more is because on average they work more hours..

[@AFNick]

Sadly, the trade off isn’t that clean.

[@rcmatti7478]

Interesting. Yes Americans work more and earn more in post tax compensation on average. It would be interesting to analyze the post healthcare, post housing cost, post insurances, net pay differences on average per hour worked. On numerical stats like net pay US will win every time but things like crime, health of citizens, general state of infrastructure, food quality and transportation should also be factored in as non qualitative factors when making the comparison.

[@zygmuntlllwaza5773]

@@AFNick Look forward to listening to it.

[@Eli-pj8xm]

You got it the other way around. GDP per hour output is significantly higher in the US than in the big European economies: Germany (98% of the US), France (92% of the US) or the UK (a measly 83% of the US). The overall eurozone as a whole is just under 85% of the US output.

[@rcmatti7478]

@@Eli-pj8xm of course it is. But does GDP per hour output mean a higher quality of life and or standard of living? Need to look at health, vacation time, home ownership rates, home and rent affordability rates, leisure time, retirement age, obesity, well-being, quality of life, it's not a simple evaluation but should be a weighted comparison. the subjectivity will come in what weights say net $ after tax has vs. vacation vs. obesity rates vs. public infrastructure vs. crime etc. living in europe now it's interesting because in certain countries like switzerland and scandinavia salaries are high but costs are also high. places like Spain Italy France both living costs and food costs are much lower as well.

[@hilkovanwalraven3111]

yes you live in the country were some people have billions feel rich yet?

[@AFNick]

No, but my standard of living is definitely higher than if I pursued the same career path anywhere in Europe.

[@hilkovanwalraven3111]

google does not agree with you ( Netherlands vs United )states@@AFNick

[@arnodobler1096]

​@@AFNickAs long as you're young, healthy and don't have a family, yes maybe! I doubt that you have ever set foot in the countries you report on here. The WSJ changed the title of their story the same day.🤔

[@AFNick]

I have both lived in and visited Europe (over 10 member states) multiple times along with having relatives who are still there. I haven’t been to every country in EU, but my anecdotal experience has not deviated much from what the data tells me.

[@MoonShine-o5n]

⁠@@hilkovanwalraven3111Netherlands is smaller than Metro LA lol.

[@AntioneAngele-cy8yb]

Thru butt whit the debt of u.s i dont whant to life in the usa whit that system. You Will find out. Good Lucky.

[@andrewlin6136]

Europe is dying

[@Syllabus1997]

Yep… that is why US FED had to bail out the European banking system and the city of London money printer.🖨️ With lower interest rates after 2008…😑😑😑