Eurovision 2021 - Semi Final 1 - My Prediction & Thoughts with details (jury, televoting, overall)

[@kaeyaki53]

i really hope that russia qualifies, love the song and the message

[@n_equam]

Your comment made me so happy! I love our entry this year, the song is so unique and the message is so important, not to mention how amazing of a person Manizha herself is (that’s why it pains me even more to see how much hate she’s received in the past weeks from the Russian community). It makes me soooo happy that it’s in Russian, but that fact exactly and the flow of the song may be the reasons why it won’t qualify :( She’s a great performer though so I’m still hoping for the best!

[@kaeyaki53]

@@n_equam i hope that the international fans help her win! much love from germany

[@n_equam]

@@kaeyaki53 awwwww thank you! That’s what I’m hoping too, like it’s the first time I’m glad that Russia doesn’t get to vote hahah. Sending you back love from Russia as well ♥️🥰🥰 I guess you won’t have to worry about the semis but good luck to you nonetheless! Ahhh I really can’t wait for Eurovision, I missed it so much тт_тт

[@escserg6731]

@@n_equam Привет адекватным фанам)

[@n_equam]

@@escserg6731 привет-привет) Будем вместе надеяться на лучшее 😂

[@CinematicSF]

Ukraine is the absolute black horse. not only will they advance to the final, but they will be high. Ukraine never disappoints. Croatia, Russia, Norway, Ireland, Cyprus, Ukraine, Malta, Belgium, Romania, Lithuania, Sweden. All these countries deserve to be in the final.

[@escserg6731]

Yes but juries... they really don't like this genre(

[@CinematicSF]

@@escserg6731 I'm not worried about Ukraine at all. the only thing that bothers me a little is the girl's vocals, otherwise Ukraine has proven to be a tough competitor.

[@DirkGrosemans]

@@escserg6731 If juries let them guide about their personal taste, well they don't deserve to be a member of the jury.

[@Ben-Immnl]

Fingers crossed for Ukraine 🇺🇦🤞

[@carstenjanss9145]

I think Norway Will do better than many think. It is a song suited for a big stage, his live vocals are spot on(which the juries often like), and he has a very strong message to share. Hope je gets rid of the glasses, his eyes are so cute

[@escserg6731]

He won't get rid of the glasses, he has ticks (that's why his stage name is Tix). His vocals were good because of pre-recorded backing vocals that are allowed at Eurovision this year for everyone, so it doesn't really matter

[@markdamaniac6041]

@@escserg6731 omg does he always perform with those glasses and headband? Yikes...

[@escserg6731]

@@markdamaniac6041 I don't know about the headband, it's probably a part of his image. We don't know what they will change for Eurovision, but he will keep glasses for sure

[@andi01452]

@@markdamaniac6041 Just like the comment over me; it's his image/stage persona. When he is performing as Tix he will always use the glasses, the headband and fur coat but when he is Andreas he usually takes them off. He kinda uses the persona as a wall of confidence. In an interview on the Norwegian talk show Lindmo he talked about his lowest point in life and put on his glasses to hide eventual tears and bc it was easier to talk about the topic which is understandable. In concerts, he may take the glasses off to talk about inspirational stuff as Andreas and then put them on to perform as Tix.

[@timi1655]

My ideal SF 1 places from Hungary: 1. Ukraine 2. Romania 3. Russia 4. Malta 5. Norway 6. Azerbaijan 7. Israel 8. Sweden 9. Cyprus 10. Croatia ----------------------------- 11. Belgium 12. Australia 13. Slovenia 14. Lithuania 15. Ireland 16. North Macedonia

[@MitskiMia]

I think Lithuania should qualify

[@5steffs]

My prediction: 01. Malta 02. Azerbaijan 03. Lithuania 04. Ukraine 05. Romania 06. Israel 07. Croatia 08. Sweden 09. Russia 10. North Macedonia 11. Belgium 12. Cyprus 13. Australia 14. Norway 15. Ireland 16. Slovenia

[@thundermouse3172]

I think it's easier Sweden to be a NQ than Ukraine. Ukraine for me has got something you want to see in Eurovision. Folk with 2021 sound. I hope the best for Ukraine and Romania from Greece

[@escserg6731]

Sweden? A non-qualifier?)))

[@thundermouse3172]

@@escserg6731 yes in my opinion. It's the worst Swedish song in years. Yes we all know that will qualify cause of it is Sweden. Yes the singer has a good voice but it's enough? I can't understand why the most of ESC fan KZbin channels don't appreciate the Ukrainian song. The most unique song of this year competition. I don't understand a word but still gives me goosebumps. I know is personal taste, but I don't know how Sweden can stand among songs like Malta's, Azerbaijan, Lithuania, Cyprus, Romania, Ukraine's, Croatia, even Israeli song or Norway's. Let's see

[@escserg6731]

@@thundermouse3172 Agree. It's more all about jury voting about Sweden, they always vote for them, in televotes it could come even out of top 10 I personally appreciate Ukraine, it's my top 10. But this video is a trying to guess what will happen with the results.

[@marcus8022]

@@escserg6731 I think Tusse is going to Get a lot of points from Televote. Remember, many people are WATCHING it ON THE NIGHT, And havent seen it before. I think that helps Sweden a lot.

[@escserg6731]

@@marcus8022 Why does it help them?

[@Denis-89]

I actually think both Sweden and Norway will do better with audience than you all think. For general audience who only hear the songs once its all about sudden impact and catchiness.Its also the fact that the songs have a sound most people recognise. And Norway has a retro 2000s sound, combined with lyrics about mental health. And both guys are sympathetic, I think voters will find them authentic..

[@escserg6731]

OK, but where are the lyrics about mental health in Norway song? I hear only love cheese...

[@Denis-89]

@@escserg6731 Fallen angel playing with demons?

[@escserg6731]

@@Denis-89 ...and he fell from heaven where she is... and he thinks that he is too weak to return to heaven to her...

[@escserg6731]

@Matilda K. Sorry, but William from wiwibloggs won't be a commentator at ESC to explain it us)))

[@HN-go4um]

Regarding Roxen, did you listen to her live performance? It was really good!

[@asi183]

her live performance was stuning and her voice is amazing and i'm sure that She will have a great performance in the final of course

[@jaja6451]

@@asi183 😭

[@asi183]

@@jaja6451 😰😭 i feel sorry for her but she wasnt at her best to say the least

[@Idk-mm2ts]

This is the best prediction i've ever seen this year

[@robinoswald]

The jury usually supports songs with a good and meaningful lyrics... and Russia definitely has it, so it might get a bigger amount of points from the jury than anyone expects.

[@escserg6731]

Will juries have a translation of the lyrics? Because even I being Russian and understanding the language, realized the meaning of the song only after reading Eurovision bloggers)

[@robinoswald]

@@escserg6731 Well, I hope so:D As the professional jury members they should be aware of the lyrics of every song

[@agirlinabasementofyourdaddy]

After 12 years if being in eurovision circus. I just no longer know what juries vote for 😂 One time you feel like you know, and then they smack with such a “surprising” result. Like when they totally burried Ukraine and Italy in 2018, yet pushed Sweden to the 2nd place. Like... wtf. Poland 2016 is also an example of a messy jury voting, yet they pushed Malta (with absolutely boring song and performance) to the top 5? I guess.... So... I can imagine what mess they are about to do in this semi.

[@escserg6731]

@@agirlinabasementofyourdaddy yes, it’s one of their tasks, to make some intrigue and to try to save commercial pop songs and polished vocal ballads. Poland 2016 was too dated for them and... they also don’t really like Poland at esc in general)))

[@annaferns1840]

@@escserg6731 well, she might pull a Netta with the women empowerment angle. And Manizha is definitely better at live performance than Netta

[@ronmedheuos]

Ok I made my predictions: Juries 1 Sweden 🇸🇪 158p 2 Malta 🇲🇹 149p 3 Israel 🇮🇱 101p 4 Lithuania 🇱🇹 91p 5 Romania 🇷🇴 89p 6 Belgium 🇧🇪 87p 7 Norway 🇳🇴 75p 8 Cyprus 🇨🇾 69p 9 Azerbaijan 🇦🇿 59p 10 Ireland 🇮🇪 56p 11 Slovenia 🇸🇮 53p 12 Russia 🇷🇺 36p 13 Australia 🇦🇺 30p 14 North Macedonia 🇲🇰 27p 15 Croatia 🇭🇷 25p 16 Ukraine 🇺🇦 15p Televote 1 Malta 🇲🇹 165p 2 Cyprus 🇨🇾 119p 3 Lithuania 🇱🇹 100p 4 Ukraine 🇺🇦 94p 5 Romania 🇷🇴 86p 6 Croatia 🇭🇷 79p 7 Russia 🇷🇺 73p 8 Israel 🇮🇱 72p 9 Azerbaijan 🇦🇿 56p 10 Ireland 🇮🇪 52p 11 Sweden 🇸🇪 47p 12 Norway 🇳🇴 39p 13 Belgium 🇧🇪 37p 14 Australia 🇦🇺 25p 15 Slovenia 🇸🇮 12p 16 North Macedonia 🇲🇰 10p Overall: 1 Malta 🇲🇹 304p 2 Sweden 🇸🇪 205p 3 Lithuania 🇱🇹 191p 4 Cyprus 🇨🇾 188p 5 Romania 🇷🇴 175p 6 Israel 🇮🇱 173p 7 Belgium 🇧🇪 124p 8 Azerbaijan 🇦🇿 115p 9 Norway 🇳🇴 114p 10 Ukraine 🇺🇦 109p 11 Russia 🇷🇺 109p 12 Ireland 🇮🇪 108p 13 Croatia 🇭🇷 104p 14 Slovenia 🇸🇮 65p 15 Australia 🇦🇺 55p 16 North Macedonia 🇲🇰 37p

[@mialauer6421]

Really like your thoughts. It's a bloodbath this semi, makes me so sad because I really want Norway to qualify. They deserve it.

[@escserg6731]

And they still can, bookies believe in them...

[@Fajnadziewczynacolubikoty]

Malta, Cyprus, Australia, Croatia, Belgium ❤️

[@itsrickmeijer5251]

if malta wins the final instead of zwitserland or france then i’m done edit: plus italy ofc

[@danielaranda55]

fingers crossed for norway🇳🇴

[@Eko-in5sw]

POR FAVOR

[@ff4t937]

If it was keiino.

[@Idk-mm2ts]

No

[@yinloveyang]

@@Idk-mm2ts Ahh you're annoying.... and everywhere with the same opinion.

[@escthingsz]

This is actually a pretty realistic prediction

[@nilerra8181]

- German televote will vote for Lithuania and Russia. - Italian televote will give 12 to Romania for sure. And then Ukraine and Russia. - Israel televote again.. 12 to Russia probably. - Swedish televote will have Lithuania above Malta or Australia pretty easy like Norwegian televote. - Romania will get more points from Ireland, Belgium or Norway in televote. For the song + some diaspora. - Malta a bit overrated in some televotings.. and in others like Azerbaijan or Australia can actually score better. - Overall.. Ireland pretty overestimated in televotings I feel.. And Norway the opposite. Belgium should do better.. Specially with juries. Cyprus also a bit overrated in my view. - I really like you showed the scoreboard and comments unlike other videos :) Great job!

[@escserg6731]

Yes, agree with the most)

[@adrianos7334]

The Belgian song is simply a million times better than the Irish and I am very sure that Belgium will get high jury votes, because this song ticks all the jury boxes. Also this band has fans all over Europe, so I am sure they will have a good televoting result too.

[@divacrossing6215]

@@adrianos7334 THIS GUY IS A LESLEY HATER HATES ON EVERY VIDEO WITH LESLEY DO NOT BELIVE ANYTHING HE SAYS HE IS A LIER AND A FAKER AND THATS THE TRUTH HE PROBABLY HAS IRELAND LAST IN EVERY SINGLE YEAR HE DESIPE IRELAND HE IS NOT REAL HE IS A BOT PLEASE HIDE THIS GUY FROM YOUR CHANNEL HE HATES ON LESLEY FOR NO REASON

[@gavincurtis9758]

@@divacrossing6215 Omg finally someone else noticed that this fella is under every video hating on Lesley. The chap just hates on her all the time even when she's good he just always is negative

[@gielgielis2777]

Croatia and Belgium are so good!

[@rotkiw8031]

I would really hate it for Russia and Belgium not to qualify :(( Great video!! I really enjoy this type of videos. Your comments are interstesting to me :) I doubt the jury vores will be so high for Australia since they did not send anything safe, as opposed to all their other acts besides 2019, which was I think really elevated by the staging. This time staging elevation will not happen ehh. But it is just my opinion ofc.

[@escserg6731]

Yes, interesting point. I don’t know what to think about Australia, they usually send something safe and are really overrated by juries, about this year... idk

[@nilerra8181]

Both are qualifying. Don't worry :)

[@sias.5551]

I am no expert in any circumstance but I think you should take into consideration past year's songs as well! A lot of watchers, even when not obsessed with Eurovision, briefly remember some names from last summer's radio edits [For example, in Semi-Final 1, I heard The Roop, Roxen and Efendi on the radio multiple times] I wish Ukraine and Russia the best of luck 💕💕

[@josemadrigalsuarez6828]

Lituania, Rumanía, Chipre, Suecia, Malta, Azerbaiyán, Eslovenia, mis preferidas de esta semifinal.

[@escyollie]

Wow that was an incredible predict, congarts!! :)

[@escserg6731]

Thanks)

[@escyollie]

@@escserg6731 OMG you answered me THANKSSS

[@-loll-990]

Damn... Montaigne did really get screwed over... The fact that her song was strong for televoting, but the restrictions killed her chances, im so sad :(

[@freyaschenberg1225]

i think the biggest surprise this semi might be ireland and ukraine qualifying, ukraine has perhaps the most unique song that will grab people's attention

[@escserg6731]

Ukraine won't be a surprise, everyone wants them to qualify)

[@ESCxCan]

Please make a video like that for Semi-Final 2 too. Loved this video sm, even though u predicted Norway to not qualify, still very good work here!!

[@escserg6731]

Thanks) I'm busy but I'll try)

[@ESCxCan]

@@escserg6731 cool

[@Илья-р5к6з]

I love this all stuff, because I see a great work behind this video. I think that only thinking over the points wasn't the easiest work, your opinions are really worked out and explained, that is why it was a blast to watch))) Also I pretty much like the charisma and the message of the russian entry, and I don't think it'll get some high places, but I really want it to qualify

[@escserg6731]

Thanks) I want it too) Спасибо)

[@treetree8244]

Agree with most of the comments. Juries will not like Russia but I still believe that it will qualify and will do better in the final. My prediction is a Poland 2016 situation, maybe not top 10 in the final but top 15

[@TheSharpStalwart]

Just got to say it. This video got added on the poorly aged eurovision statements Twitter account.

[@Stan20202]

I don’t think Australia will do well, because she is not travelling to Rotterdam and I feel like she will be punished for that

[@escserg6731]

For what? Why punished? It's not her fault

[@Stan20202]

@@escserg6731 not her fault, but I still think both the juries and the public want to see a live act on the stage in Rotterdam. The song isn’t that strong too so I think it’s not gonna make it to the final, but we will see😄

[@escserg6731]

@@Stan20202 Public can be influenced by this a lot, I agree here. But juries still can help her

[@panziemniak4303]

I really hope that Belgium will qualify 🥺 Belgium is my 2nd place in this semi 🤭

[@xSTATOKEx]

I have to disagree with Norway being so low in the televoting. Its a super catchy, enjoyable song which people will like for its over the top-ness (IM A IM A FALLEN ANGEEEEEEEL) and the staging looks to be incredible. This will be more Azerbaijan 2008 than Croatia 2019, TIX is a much stronger English singer than Roko.

[@escserg6731]

Ok) but Azerbaijan had much more interesting and dynamic song... and come on, it was 2008, 00’s)))

[@crsx1861]

This may sound stupid but I don't see Slovenia not qualifying

[@bowser1166]

Wow, this is so different from what I think will happen. It's kind of hard to predict, but I'll try anyway: Juries: 1. Malta: Obvious. Juries like Malta, and they will like this song. 2. Belgium: I believe this might be an "Austria/Albania 2018" situation. The song is very well produced, which is bound to make it a Jury qualifier, but I think staging and especially the live performance will be so much better than 2018 and 2019. It's bound to be in a better place than the 10th. 3. Sweden: As you said, Juries always like Sweden. But that's because they always send very Jury-friendly songs. This is no exception. 4. Romania: Basically everything you said. 5. Israel: This song has a lot of quality. Especially the last chorus is going to convince many Juries. 6. Slovenia: The song is really good, and the Juries know that. Her live performance will also stand out. 7. Croatia: This is just a feeling. It's kind of old school, and Juries like that. 8. Cyprus: Obviously this might be higher, but from what I heard of her live vocals, Juries might be a bit more critical than expected. It might also be a bit too bland for them. But what do I know, it could also ein the Jury voting. 9. Lithuania: The song is quite popular, but I think Juries don't like this weirdness too much. 10. Azerbaijan: I personally think that this song doesn't have too much Jury-appeal. 11. Ireland: It has a certain appeal to Juries, but they might think it's a bit too generic. 12. Norway: They are going to like song, but it will not be enough for Top 10. 13. Russia: I'm a bit more optimistic for this song. I think some Juries will appreciate the message. 14. Ukraine: You said everything relevant. 15. North Macedonia: It's too standard. 16. Australia: The fact that she's the only one who's not on the stage is going to be a big disadvantage. I expect Juries to prefer everything they can see live. And the song is much less Jury-appealing than the last years. Televoting: 1. Lithuania: They are just going to love all the weirdness and catchiness in this song. 2. Malta: Obviously they'll like it, but it's maybe not as appealing as Lithuania. 3. Cyprus: People are gonna be on fire for this song! 4. Azerbaijan: People will love everything about this. 5. Ukraine: The ethnic and techno aspects will be very appealing to televoters. 6. Romania: Obviously, the mass will also want this in the final. 7. Russia: Many people will like the weirdness of this song. 8. Ireland: This kind of song is quite popular. 9. Sweden: People are going to like it. Not too much, but it will be in the televoters' Top 10 as well. 10. Croatia: It's going to be liked. It's catchy, and everything else it needs. 11. Belgium: It will have its fanbase, but I absolutely see the "Albania 2018" situation here. 12. Israel: The people are going to like this, but not as much as the Juries. 13. Norway: Same as with the Juries. 14. Australia: The song might be more appealing to televoters. And they won't care so much about it being pre-recorded. But it still won't be enough. 15. Slovenia: It's not mass-appealing. That's basically everything. 16. North Macedonia: Obvious. Now for the ridiculous general results which can be so different with these predictions of mine: 1. Malta: Obvious. 2. Lithuania: It's either this or Romania. 3. Romania: ^ 4. Sweden: This or Cyprus. 5. Cyprus: ^ 6. Belgium: With these results, this is obvious. 7. Azerbaijan: ^ 8. Croatia: This or Israel. 9. Israel: ^ 10. Ukraine: It's either this or Ireland. 11. Ireland: Might just as well qualify as Ukraine. 12. Russia 13. Slovenia 14. Norway 15. Australia 16. North Macedonia These would make sense, but much can be different. I personally would also be quite happy with these results, so, obviously, my opinion went into this. :D

[@escserg6731]

Great!

[@kkaralius85]

Finger crossed for Lithuania🤞🏻🙌🏻👌🇱🇹

[@escserg6731]

Yeah, that is that year when fingers "should be crossed" for everyone)

[@sevenrinqs4033]

YES FINGERS CROSSED

[@giannisgiannis5256]

Cyprus is wonderful!!!Fantastic song and majestic voice!!!You are the best!!! Congratulations Elena and Panik!!!Good Luck Elena!!You will be the winner of Eurovision 2021.,All Europe is with you.Go ahead:):)

[@elinsynnve2610]

Interesting assessment. Enjoyed it a lot, and you are indeed making valid points... But, Ukraine and Russia... I think the juries will eat them up. Folk-elements and native languages etc. usually fare well with the juries, don't you think? My qualifiers are: Lithuania, Cyprus, Belgium, Azerbaijan, Malta, Israel, Croatia, Ukraine, Russia and Australia :)

[@escserg6731]

It really seems the other way around, televoters usually like folk elements and native languages so much, juries... they usually look for polished commercial songs in English, they're the people from the pop industry

[@elinsynnve2610]

@@escserg6731 OK, maybe I am wrong...

[@VideosRandomKM]

Romania don't has a Good Vocals? Pliss... You Should Watch her performance in Pre Party ES

[@bobpancakesbutdivorcedandh1606]

My ideal semifinal places from Russia: 1. Belgium 2. Malta 3. Ukraine 4. Slovenia 5. Romania 6. Israel 7. Russia 8. Croatia 9. Azerbaijan 10. Ireland ----------- 11. Sweden 12. Cyprus 13. Australia 14. Norway 15. North Macedonia 16. Lithuania

[@bobpancakesbutdivorcedandh1606]

Not my prediction, just my top - I'm horrible in predictions

[@tzoreehandler9163]

"Belgium always struggles with televoting points when they send dark pop songs" - don't you remember 2017? Belgium finished then 4th in the televoting with a dark pop song. This time won't be like 2018 and 2019. I feel like Belgium will be in the jury's top 5 in the semi, and 7-10th in the televoting. It's going to be amazing live.

[@escserg6731]

Ok) Blanche was a special case, she did so well in charts was really popular overall... and probably, Belgium decided that it’s their way🤔

[@otter_iguess]

Aged well

[@juliaarus2416]

My top 3: 1. Switzerland 🇨🇭 2. Russia 🇷🇺 3. Sweden 🇸🇪

[@escserg6731]

Switzerland is in another semi)))

[@tobstobs950]

Imagine thinking that Australia will qualify 🙈

[@kg.9691]

Azerbaijan,Israel,Lithuania,Ukraine,Croatia,Macedonia,Romania,Cyprus,Sweden

[@nave-5482]

Let me tell you I am sure Croatia and Azerbaijan is going to qualify... Their staging is gonna be epic nd gudd... Azerbaijan have the budget to give an epic show and she said cleopatra had huge staging and mata Hari is definitely is gonna have elements from tht performance so it's gonna b gud and she is vocally gud too... And with Albina marvin dietmann is her staging director and she is gonna have an amazing staging and the qween is vocally gud too.. Nd I am sure most of the Balkans will give her 12 points and she is also the Balkans favorite.. Trust me a lot of Balkans love tick tock more than loco.... So I kinda hav a feeling both are gonna qualify nd slayyy

[@escserg6731]

It’s really surprising that Balkans like it, interesting)

[@fransgreidanus5678]

The shade to Ira Losco‘s song makes me so laugh (and I agree)

[@cyb3rh4nd]

As long as Russia, Australia, Cyprus and Malta qualify for the final I'm happy

[@escserg6731]

Same)

[@georgioskallegeros]

AUSTRALIA!!! 🇦🇺

[@NoNameUwUxX]

Yasss!! Destiny is a queen 👑✨❤🇲🇹

[@TanJulia]

1:30 mins ans it already hurts to see Russia and Tixs that low

[@marioyou4091]

Roxen winner ! Australia dont qualifi

[@tzoreehandler9163]

I kinda agree about Russia and Ukraine - I really like both of them, but I guess that they'll be really underrated by the jury. Hoping that the televoting will save them. And also about Slovenia - more like Georgia 2017 than North Macedonia 2019.

[@escserg6731]

Thanks)

[@boardgame_bog1531]

I don't think Australia will qualify

[@jamesjohnson5801]

You aren't too far off, but there are some glaring mistakes. Australia is unlikely to qualify especially now that they aren't going to be there. I would put Croatia to qualify instead. I don't think Ireland will qualify either, and it would not surprise me if the jury saved Macedonia or Slovenia, like they did with Macedonia in 2019. Highly unlikely Cyprus will be as high as you place it. Lithuania will be higher.

[@escserg6731]

OK, interesting. Thanks for such thoughtful comment. It's like almost all the moment that I thought about so much. Australia might kinda get some jury support just because of this hype that she could be the only one not performing in Rotterdam. Slovenia and Macedonia... just literally everything is possible. I just doubt that juries will be dare to put at least one of them into their top 5 (it's the only way to make them qualify) in such a strong semi with full of jury-friendly songs.

[@jamesjohnson5801]

@@escserg6731 Regarding Slovenia/Macedonia I wouldn't be surprised if the jury put one of them in the top 5 because they are the two best vocalists in SF1. I'm not saying this is going to happen, but it wouldn't surprise me.

[@luckyshot9173]

I think Slovenia is at a "low pole" in this top, it can happen like this, but it could even get into top 8, with a good staging and live performance it can rock. Also fingers crossed for Russia and Ukraine xD

[@escserg6731]

Agree)

[@landon306]

I could definitely see Malta doing well here, winning. In the final: San Marino will either be a KEiiNO or Sergey Lazarev 2016 moment, where they win the televote, but don't do well with the jury . Their staging should be good, and the sheer shock factor that will happen on stage, from Senhit to Flo (probably) will get televoters to remember them, but people not remembering them due to their previous track record could harm them.. Switzerland will probably win the jury vote, unless a strong English ballad comes through on everything. Malta will get 2nd in both televoting and jury in the final, leading Destiny to become the first JESC and ESC winner.

[@escserg6731]

It would be really interesting)))

[@Al-vh5ig]

So my personal order would be... (after PRE-Party) 16. Macedonia- No chance. 15. Slovenia- Never had much chance but running order killed it. 14. Norway- Song is too weak, Semi final is too strong. 13. Isreal- Okay, this is controversial but hear me out, the revamp is good, but I was only really invested in the song at the end, as a whole it still sort of bland? I dunno, I just can't see this standing out at all. 12. Australia- It's a tricky song to sing and while it's different, it's nothing amazing. I prefered her entry from last year, sadly I think this will be Australia's first NQ. 11. Sweden- Ugh... I know this will qualify because it's Sweden, the singer is great but the song is just medicore. Something we've seen since 2016 with Sweden. It's the same every year and it's getting so boring, remember when Sweden failed to qualify in 2010? And then afterwards went on a roll 2011 (I thought was cheesy pop, but 2011 was a weak year so...) 2012 (One of the best ESC entries ever) 2013 (Also awesome, a song with a personal story) 2014 (epic ballad!) 2015 (not my winner that year, but still pretty great and amazing staging). Yeah, Sweden needs another wake up call to start sending quailty songs again. 10. Cyprus (another controversial take). I don't get the hype behind this, Greece or Serbia this year. They're like the same pop song moulded into one. I know this is more my personal opinon (and her vocals during the Pre-party were great). But the song does nothing for me. But maybe the live will save it, hell it will most likely qualify but this is just my opinon. 9. Ireland- This will really come down to how well she sings it live and what the staging will be. Pre-Party sounded promising, but even if this is done to perfection live I think it will be a borderline qualifier. About 10th or 9th. If the live goes poorly this will tank. But I have hopes for this as the song has really grown on me. 8. Belgium- Same as Ireland it's going to be a borderline qualifer, it's personally in my top 10, but I know a lot of people won't see it that way. 7. Croatia- Okay, it's another pop song, like Greece, Cyprus, Serbia, but I think this one is like San Marino and Moldova in which it's more catchy for me. I don't know it just seems to have a more memorable hook and she seems to do it well live. Whereas San Marino's live was a bit meh... and Moldova...yikes. But yeah this is another one I have some worries for, but I hope it makes it. 6. Romania- This and Bulgaria are like the... everybody else loves them, but it's not my type of music songs. I think this will safely qualify and although the song isn't my cup of tea I don't hate it at all. So yeah, I think it's alright overall. 5. Lithuania- Best song to pick to open the show, while it's no On Fire, it's still gonna be a fun, quirky performance and I still like the song, it's going through for sure. 4. Azerbajian- I love the ethnic sounds in this one, it's not an artistic masterpiece but it's a fun song and I can see this safely getting through. 3. Russia- This song is bonkers, and I love it! She has an amazing stage presence and after the Pre-party I hope she can qualify, sadly I think she'll stay in the semi, but I think the final will be so much better with her in it. 2. Ukraine- Same as Russia, song is different and probably won't qualify even with televotes. But I bloody love this song! I would love to see the likes of Russia-Ukraine in the final. Rather than the likes of Cyprus-Sweden, because they offer something different! But I have a horrible feeling we'll lose gems like these two and get a blander final with more traditional pop in it. But I have my fingers crossed that Ukraine can make it! 1. Malta- Love it, insanely catchy, this isn't my winner of the contest, but it will win this semi-final and it's my personal favourite of the bunch. Anyway all in all awesome vid!

[@escserg6731]

Thanks)

[@mowarich]

Russia is growing up in bookies. This is a sign.

[@escserg6731]

Was 15th, now also 15th, where is growing?

[@mowarich]

@@escserg6731 look at the other tables like semifinal 1, top 10

[@escserg6731]

@@mowarich ok, it was there before too)

[@user-cr7kr3pg4q]

Norway will get many points from germany cause here it‘s played in radio and is really liked ❤️❤️

[@escserg6731]

OK)

[@yinloveyang]

Soo good nobody cares about ESC here in Czechia and only a few contestants from the last about 10 years made it to our radio.

[@Neiw-jq6wr]

Performances will decide

[@escserg6731]

As always)

[@angelbipboup9096]

Wow! First of all, let me congrats you for this amount of work you did ! I would like to give my opinion about some of the predictions you made ! First of all, i really think Russia and Ukraine are gonna be for both of the juries and televoters at 8-11th place, because honestly, not just because there are my top 7 & 1 overall, there are really awesome songs, the singers have great vocals, what can possibly go wrong ? Yes it's really not traditional-pop-like songs, and you talked about Poland 2019, but if i remember well, Poland had to qualify instead of Belarus in the semi-final, and in the other Lithuania instead of Denmark if there had not been the voting problems? (correct me if this info proves false) ? For these reasons, i think they could be possible top 10 for both ! For Australia, sadly, even if the juries are always nice with them... Montaigne is my top 6 overall, and i love her vocals and the music itself, but i feel like this is gonna be a non-qualifier this year, sadly. People are not that much into this song and i'm scared that the juries will not give it enough points to save this song. Crossed fingers! Ireland is really overrated by people in general, i really don't understand why to be honest. It's a good song, yes, but ?? Last year it was really better i think, it was a pop song who made me dance, and this year i feel like it's a bit... Flat ? The Lesley Roy's vocals are not that bad, i think it will be ok for this. i'm surprised that you place so low Norway, because, if we don't talk about the mess it made when he win instead of Keiino, it could possibly be the kind of non-expected top 5 song, don't you think ? This song was more popular than Monument in Norway, why not more popular than other songs in general ? (Even if i think this final is way too strong to place it in the top 10) For the Azerbaidjan and Israël, I would have reversed what you did. Azerbaijan is much more popular with people I think than Israel, the song is more catchy, there is that 'little thing"! Slovenia could honestly be like Moldova in 2019, a surprinsing top 8th for juries and 11-13th for the televoters, with a good staging and her incredible vocals ! North Macedonia... Meh, Next. It will be last for sure, it's really bad in my opinion. (I just wanna dance with you please) Agree for Belgium (but maybe 10th instead of 11th), Lithuania, Romania and Sweden ! Croatia will be a 5-7th for televoters i think, i feel like it's really popular and modern for the people, and that it can be a real bop this year. Finally, before i gave you my opinion about the semi-final and my dream top 16 (lol), I want to discuss about the two last one : Malta and Cyprus ! I really think Malta is hated by televoters in general (Like Switzerland is for Juries) and could be 2nd instead of 1st, and Cyprus be 1st instead of 2nd, let me explain. Do you remember the cute Christabelle with Taboo ? You know where i'm going ? 5th for juries, 18th (last) for televoters (and it was far from the worst song lol, Hi Georgia and Montenegro) ! For Malta in 2019 : 4th for juries and 10th for televoters (and it was quite a popular song). I feel like this year, it could be a 1st for juries, and a 2nd (maybe 3rd if i'm crazy) for televoters. It could make the song be behind Cyprus (Or Lituania). I think this hypothesis is not that crazy in fact, i would like your opinion about it guys! And i don't talk about how good are the Elena's vocals, even if you had a doubt on it! Sorry for this monster i wrote, sorry for my English, i'm French ! Here the top 16 i think would be the 1st Semi-Final : 1. Cyprus 2. Malta 3. Lithuania 4. Sweden 5. Romania 6. Azerbaidjan 7. Russia 8. Ukraine 9. Croatia 10. Belgium 11. Israêl 12. Norway 13. Australia 14. Ireland 15. Slovenia 16. North Macedonia (Honestly, for Croatia, Belgium, Norway and Israël, it's such awful to place them and chose who's between 8-12th) And here what i would like this Semi-final to be : 1. Ukraine 2. Australia 3. Russia 4. Azerbaidjan 5. Malta 6. Israël 7. Cyprus 8. Belgium 9. Sweden 10. Romania 11. Lithuania 12. Croatia 13. Norway 14. Slovenia 15. Ireland 16. North Macedonia (In my top 39 overall, Norway is 23th, Slovenia 27th, Ireland 29th and N.Macedonia last, just to tell how much hard is this semi-final... Lituania is my 20th, so it's a song i would love to see in final and it's 11th if i put it here... Honestly there is so much good songs this year.) Sorry again for all that!

[@hocuspocus6621]

Televoting is almost always an uphill battle for Malta because of staging. We simply suck at making a decent song look nice on stage ._. Hopefully Destiny will not have the same fate as her predecessors. Michela's childish performance, Christabelle's overly messy performance or Ira's bland performance... Urgh D:

[@angelbipboup9096]

@@hocuspocus6621 Yes but do you think the staging can make a song fall that much ? We talk about a 5th position for juries and 18th for public, so much difference! Honestly i think Malta is a bit overrated, it's really good, clearly one of the best Malta's entry, but 1st everywhere ? Mmmh, I don't know... Things like France, Switzerland, Bulgaria... could make it too!

[@robingoransson5591]

CROATIA🇸🇪♥️🇭🇷

[@Neiw-jq6wr]

When will you release Semi 2 Prediction?

[@escserg6731]

If I do it, in the beginning of May)

[@peterjantzen12]

Think you forget that norway won quite confidently in norway with the televoters, and do Think he Will be placed higher at the televoters.

[@escserg6731]

Tusse also won it more than confidently... and Uku Suviste too...

[@vavah2071]

I think that Australia will be eliminated and Ireland maybe. I hope that Croatia will qualify and maybe Norway or Russia

[@escserg6731]

OK)

[@vavah2071]

@Matilda K. Yes, depends of the staging.

[@vavah2071]

@Matilda K. We'll see because the 1st semi is so hard to qualify (almost 14 of the 16 songs deserved the final)

[@vavah2071]

@Matilda K. The problem is that I really like Ireland but the 1st semi is so strong that she's not in my top 10 from the 1st semi

[@vavah2071]

@Matilda K. My top 10 from France: 1 - Lithuania 2 - Cyprus 3 - Malta 4 - Sweden 5 - Romania 6 - Azerbaijan 7 - Croatia 8 - Norway 9 - Israel 10 - Ukraine But apart from North Macedonia and Slovenia which are on my bottom 10, the rest is not far from Ukraine

[@ioanrujan5333]

Romania is qualirsaet 12 points

[@natashabailey5406]

I think the televoting results are pretty much what will go through but I think Croatia and Australia will be swapped but this semi-final is so hard to call, most of them could potentially go through

[@ttheone3518]

i would say the Norwegian televote doesn't give 12 points to Sweden. i think they will give them 10 or 8, and give the 12 to Lithuania, but otherwise i agree with your result

[@escserg6731]

kinda agree) Norwegians really like the Roop so much?

[@darasullen8289]

@@escserg6731 я думаю, это диаспора литовская диаспора зарешает, она очень активная.

[@escserg6731]

@@darasullen8289 Тут не диаспора имеется в виду, северные страны просто исторически голосуют друг за друга, включая, Латвию, Литву и Эстонию. Просто Швеция кажется ближе к Норвегии, чем Литва)

[@darasullen8289]

@@escserg6731 В Норвегии и Швеции очень много литовцев, так же как и в Ирландии.

[@ttheone3518]

@@escserg6731 nope, it’s just a lot of lithuanians live in Norway. I know at least 30 living and working in my town, and 12 points in the televote has gone to lithuania in the semi or final from norway every year

[@Yuri-pookie]

Finger crossed for Russia,Ukraine,Cyprus,Slovenia,Israel and Azerbaijan!!!!!!!! From🇩🇪❤️🇷🇺🇺🇦🇨🇾🇸🇮🇮🇱🇦🇿

[@nnnllll7900]

Russia and Croatia will qualify

[@escserg6731]

I personally hope so too)

[@future_409]

I really dont think that Russia can make it to the grand final.

[@danielharvey3831]

My top 10 in order 1. Ireland 🇮🇪 2. Cyprus 🇨🇾 3. Croatia 🇭🇷 4. Israel 🇮🇱 5. Malta 🇲🇹 6. North Macedonia 🇲🇰 7. Azerbaijan 🇦🇿 8. Slovenia 🇸🇮 9. Ukraine 🇺🇦 10. Lithuania 🇱🇹

[@jelapenas5252]

Great job done! ;) seems realistic. I think Belgium is gonna be liked by juries way more. I think it may even hit top 5. The structure, melody and the message of the song is unique and sounds professional. I have a feeling that Australia is gonna fail this year. It's not gonna get enough televotes to pass. While Ukraine may somehow qualify with the help of televotes. Cyprus is overrated too. It is qualifying but not sure if it's gonna hit top 3. Malta getting top televotes is also questionable. Okay, that's just my opinion. I do respect your top 16 ;)

[@escserg6731]

It's not my top 16, it's my thoughts about possible results. Yes, you're right, all these moments are questionable. Australia is actually usually liked by juries so much, that's why I think qualification is possible. Belgium yes, could be higher. Cyprus... I just think it's much more stronger, memorable and Eurovision-friendly than Cyprus 2019, for example, but less fresh and captivating that Cyprus 2018, so I expect something in the middle close to the top) Malta... we all have seen how some countries that haven't gotten any points before suddenly get them being a favourite, so, that's how it could be.

[@gonzalosplaneta5290]

When Will you do the SF2 prediction?

[@escserg6731]

Soon, if I decide to do it, it's much harder)

[@gonzalosplaneta5290]

@@escserg6731 Ok. Don't worry and take your time 😊

[@gopnikilja1659]

Very interesting 👍🏻

[@escserg6731]

)

[@turtel65]

Belgium ist always so underrated. I mean the netherlands, France and Germany are voting in this semifinal and Geike ist great live. I think it will be like 8 with juries und 12 with televote

[@escserg6731]

Close to mine) This semi is like stereotypical Western taste VS strereotypical Eastern taste) That's why I think either Belgium or Ireland and either Russia or Ukraine will definitely qualify)

[@turtel65]

@@escserg6731 I think so to. But I think Russia will be to underrated by the juries and the running order also hurts them than it helps them. Belgiums running order on the other hand is much better. And I don't know if it will help them that much but Hooverphonic is also relatively popular all around Europe. But both Geike and Manizha have great stage presence. Maybe Russia is a bit to out of the box but let's see. However I'm more confident with Ukraine but I'm unsure about Ireland. They said the staging will be something different and new, so I can't really predict how the end results will look like

[@escserg6731]

@@turtel65 We all can't) Great thoughts)

[@sannev8407]

Really thoughtful comments, I like how you manage to separate what you want to happen and what you think will happen. Even tho I disagree with a few things, really nice video I have one question, why do you think Malta willl finish above Sweden in jury voting? I just wonder

[@escserg6731]

Thanks a lot) Juries adore Sweden and Malta almost at the same level every single year, now Malta is a bit bigger favorite than Sweden, Destiny is a perfect vocalist, the song is really good for juries (not just good like in 2017, for ex), so it could win over Sweden a few points)

[@sannev8407]

@@escserg6731 Yeah agree, even tho I don't like Malta's song, it probably will get more televote points than Sweden. Thanks for your answer!

[@carlosrubio130]

Roxen questionable vocals??? Hello???

[@escserg6731]

Last year she has, now it looks much better) And don't forget, she will have to sing and dance at the same time.

[@kevmp3]

обидно за россию, но флоп по жюри вполне возможен будет ли такое же видео, только про второй полуфинал? с:

[@escserg6731]

Если успею и додумаюсь, там все еще сложнее)

[@kevmp3]

@@escserg6731 согласен, удачи

[@danielharvey3831]

Hope Ireland 🇮🇪 qualify

[@carstenjanss9145]

Bro, Croatia Will smash the televote

[@escserg6731]

I kinda wish it too but does she have something to do it?

[@lana.mar93]

Great analysis overall, but I don't believe Australia will qualify. The song is nothing special and they will use pre recorded performance, that will hurt their chances even more. I think Croatia or Belgium can qualify instead

[@erickalonsochaconmata9683]

You really think Cyprus will do that high with the juries? Belgium, Australia, Sweden, Malta and Slovenia are the jury favorites.

[@escserg6731]

Among catchy songs(excluding Sweden and Malta, they’re automatically on top) she has the best chance if we judge on the song in the studio version only

[@erickalonsochaconmata9683]

@@escserg6731 what a chance 😂

[@Fajnadziewczynacolubikoty]

OMG I really wish that this boring Sweden song won't advance....

[@themememaster6775]

Stop hating on Sweden. There are a lot of generic pop songs this year

[@Fajnadziewczynacolubikoty]

@@themememaster6775 but I can express my opinion. I would prefer Australia or Belgium to advance and it is not fair that Sweden ALWAYS advances even when a song is just ordinary. In 2017 and 2018 the song were awful but ofc Sweden scored many points

[@themememaster6775]

@@Fajnadziewczynacolubikoty I know, but I just feel like Sweden is a little overhated this year.

[@themememaster6775]

@@Fajnadziewczynacolubikoty And the reason why Sweden often is succesful is because they try to send songs that the juries will like.

[@Fajnadziewczynacolubikoty]

@@themememaster6775 but I can't go on was sang out of tune 😕

[@berniebuffon3552]

Norway will or should qualify from this and i personally think Cyprus is the best song, I mean Malta isnt bad but nowhere near as good as you think it is. But this is the weaker semi final and winner will probably come from the second semi final. Good Job on the video though loved it.

[@escserg6731]

Now rehearsals changed so much) Right now two big favourites are from neither Semi Final, they're from Big 5 (France, Italy)

[@berniebuffon3552]

@@escserg6731 Norway got threw im so happy :)

[@escserg6731]

@@berniebuffon3552 Yes, live performances changed so much, Romania flopped and opened doors for other ballads (Belgium, Norway) and they qualified

[@EKalinovski]

Несмотря на некоторые достаточно большие различия, наши предсказания очень даже сошлись. 👀 Я вижу такой же топ 4 по жюри, в том же порядке, такой же боттом 2 и почти полностью согласен насчет Австралии (правда у меня в предсказании она получила на 4 балла больше, хех). И победитель тот же. А вообще очень непредсказуемый полуфинал, как, в принципе, и все Евровидение этого года. Тут любой может пройти в финал, даже та же Македония кажется настолько предсказуемым последним местом, что может его и не занять. Так что шоу будет ОЧЕНЬ интрижным.

[@escserg6731]

Именно) это больше мысли, чем прогнозы, что с подобными песнями происходило раньше по жюри и зрителям

[@incaroots]

excellentt prediction. I think Malta is in the final with Lithuania , two more Ukrania and Romania

[@escserg6731]

It was a prediction before the reheardals, now they changed everything, Romania is a borderline qualifier now, Australia will probably not qualify, Croatia will probably replace Azerbaijan...

[@imworl8922]

I don't see malta winning.. i saw the rehearsal the staging is nothing and the song is too simple

[@bearre8828]

omg soo good! I think Israel and Australia gets less points from Tele

[@escserg6731]

Mybe, maybe, we'll see)

[@Idk-mm2ts]

And Israel got more lmao

[@escserg6731]

Share your thought in the comments too, where I could be right or wrong)

[@markgormley9692]

Very well made and well researched. Loved how you backed up all your predictions and borught to light very interesting points like Australia's jury favour

[@fransgreidanus5678]

Very good predicton! I only think Sweden will be placed outside the top 10 with the televote. Ugh, just hate Sweden is gonna take a spot in the final with a generic male pop song, which they send for the 6th time in a row (or 6 times in 7 years if you want to count the Mamas)

[@paolocambria1679]

can u tell me ur insta name so I can let you watch my prediction?

[@denisheralic1545]

It is really well done,of course I was looking much closer Croatian result and there could be few more televote points considering all our diaspora voting in this semi, especially Ireland (me) Sweden,Germany and Norway

[@EmoBearRights]

Is it just me that has real problems reading the text for Lithuanina's televote comment.

[@pukuwu6218]

My top for s1 from Spain! 1. Azerbaijan 🇦🇿 2. Cyprus 🇨🇾 3. Malta 🇲🇹 4. Ukraine 🇺🇦 5. Russia 🇷🇺 6. Belgium 🇧🇪 7. Lithuania 🇱🇹 8. Croatia 🇭🇷 9. Romania 🇷🇴 10. Israel 🇮🇱 11. Norway 🇳🇴 12. Sweden 🇸🇪 13. Australia 🇦🇺 14. Ireland 🇮🇪 15. Slovenia 🇸🇮 16. North Macedonia 🇲🇰 Good luck to everyone!💗

[@escserg6731]

Great top)

[@brock988]

Do you think both Russia and Ukraine will make it? I fear for Russia, although it is a fav of mine

[@escserg6731]

Yes, I fear about Russia. Ukraine will make it because of televoters only, at least)

[@brock988]

What do you think about Russia after the rehearsal now? I think it's in

[@escserg6731]

@@brock988 For televoters - definitely yes. Juries are still unpredictable as hell

[@niklas1426]

I hope australia qualifies

[@Ohohoohhiyo]

It won't sorry

[@niklas1426]

@@Ohohoohhiyo how do you know

[@ronmedheuos]

Same top 6 predictions

[@mickystam521]

This dude: Russia and Ukraine will be last by juries The juries: Put Russia and Ukraine in 2nd/3rd

[@escserg6731]

Who knew long before the show that Ukraine would do so well in charts and Manizha would give her song so much hype during pre-Eurovision week)

[@Nessafox4670]

Being from Belgium it's always interesting how much the public likes them, we don't like our own songs, and the jury and televoting can be really inconsistent. However i think that tagline 'don't you ever dare to wear my Johnny Cash T-shirt' will make it a guaranteed vote from Johnny Cash fans (and there are many), and every little bit can help in a contest iike this. However when it comes to staging, it could go either way with this group, their usual arrogance of 'let the music speak for itself, we don't need no staging' like with Sennek a few years earlier (which was pretty much a Hooverphonic song as well, just not under their own name) might turn against them. Exactly the arrogance from this band (in particulay Alex Callier) is why people in Belgium are not very confident. And whilst Geike is a classy singer, they way they handled the replacement of Luka was also not correct at all. Belgium is gonna be lucky that it can't vote for itself this time because it would sabotage itself, just to piss of Alex Callier.

[@escserg6731]

Interesting, thanks)

[@Brenbananana]

Also from Belgium & I personally assumed that there would be a much harsher view on our entry given what Alex pulled last year lol. (Among the Eurovision fandom, not so much ppl watching it on the night itself). But it's personally not my cup of tea and us not qualifying would maybe kick Alex down a notch so I wouldn't mind not making it lol.

[@dimidrugg9592]

How I see things; Televote top 3: 🇱🇹🇨🇾🇸🇪 Televote NQ: 🇮🇪🇧🇪🇳🇴🇦🇺🇲🇰🇸🇮 Jury top 3: 🇲🇹🇸🇪🇱🇹 Jury NQ: 🇦🇺🇺🇦🇷🇺🇭🇷🇸🇮🇲🇰 (the last two not so sure) About separate NQs things will be determined by points.

[@escserg6731]

Sweden is in top 3 by televoting?

[@dimidrugg9592]

@@escserg6731 They might as well not be, but I can't imagine another country being top 3 in televote. Televote doesn't like Malta for example, and I doubt that this year will be different just because they are a favourite.

[@divacrossing6215]

No dont agree with this at all Ireland will qualify instead of sweeden Lithuania or Croatia

[@dimidrugg9592]

@@divacrossing6215 You really think Ireland will leave Sweden out?

[@pizza1354]

There are so many good songs in this semi

[@escserg6731]

Yeah)

[@ossielmdn8898]

-Cyprus won't get a top 3 result -I don't see Malta winning the semi-final -Australia is a NQ -Sweden finishing in 10th place -Ukraine is a direct qualifier -Lithuania winning the televote

[@escserg6731]

I wish something from it will happen)

[@Idk-mm2ts]

No

[@leroh2462]

i think people love mata hari less than cleopatra but love it too

[@escserg6731]

Yes, it's more for juries and less for televoters than Cleopatra