EURUSD trade update and recommend strongly having a look at

[@sonOfLiberty100]

Hey how are you. Im glad, that you uploaded a new video

[@quantchannel9922]

Thanks. Markets are really interesting at the moment. There are multiple incredible trades so fingers crossed. Arsenal supporter so FA cup final to look forward to which could of course go horribly wrong, like the europa Cup final last year but at least in the final and best city to get there. Doing my US election analysis as well which should post about soon. But waiting for bitcoin 🤞

[@sonOfLiberty100]

@@quantchannel9922 Oh nice you analyzing FA cup.How do you do it? How about Bayesian Network :)

[@sonOfLiberty100]

@@quantchannel9922 www.edureka.co/blog/bayesian-networks/

[@quantchannel9922]

@@sonOfLiberty100 I am focused on the financial markets at the moment, since that is where historic moves are happening? I waited for 10 years for this crash since I missed the up move the last time :) There is high risk in that the world could change like 100 years ago, as we moved from sterling to the dollar and the US became the primary economy. Will world wars be fought? Who knows. For the moment I see loads of stimulus in a US election year which should power the markets up, though who knows what happens next with the world in massive debt? FA cup wise, I am arsenal supporter since the 70's and will be far happier if they win :) Betting wise, I am going to bet on the US election and the IPL (cricket which is perhaps the biggest betting market in the planet though with fewer games and so behind football which is king). Bayesian is on the multiple machine learning methods which cover in one of my courses :) FA cup wise, there is little data and so not ideal for machine learning? Arsensl have a 100% win record in FA cup finals against chelsea though chelsea beat arsenal in the europa cup final? More confident betting on gold to go up as everyone is printing money like never before. As this happens, shares/giold/silver all go up! Don't over-complicate things? Ebay actually going well, where buying something for less than 1 euros which peopls are snapping up for 5. Do I try and sell 100 worth to make 500 or 10,000 and end up with 7000 of stock as people find other sources? The joy of this level of profit margin is the selling 3000 bet maps to 15000 profit and so could dump the 7000 at lower price and all's well.

[@sonOfLiberty100]

@@quantchannel9922 How do you think about monte carlo simulation. If there are not enough data, you can use monte carlo.

[@عبدالرحمنالخثعمي-و8ظ]

Hi, Can I predict the foreign exchange rate through time series? I want to learn that from you, please

[@quantchannel9922]

I use chartist methods like kzbin.info/www/bejne/r5ekdIubeKxsfac where can identify entry points for trades with risk management using stop losses etc markets are incredibly complex and you can find arguments for both ways. If I use a time series model then I'm fitting a trend with some noise /random factor but the trend changes so I imagine time series would work for short periods of time but struggle as we try to do more. There are models where you fit using inflation and interest rates, which is what should be related? Should be able to get lots of data and then fit time series to it. Using machine learning ideas, you want to break your data into some that you use to train your model and then apply it to your testing data set. See how close the predictions are to what actually happened? If good, then you have a method! I would expect that there are daily patterns so early day, afternoon and then late day which would be different. Also which day effects since Friday is going into the weekend and so people don't want to take the risk of holding over the weekend. So first get data. Then fit a model. Break data into training and testing datasets and can see whether that gives a working system or is useless? Good thing is that with R or python, you can start with time series and then try dozens of different methods like neural networks and randomforests. This only takes a few lines of code since you use well established tried and tested code which others have written 😃