How Many Are Out There? Estimating Intelligent Life in Our Galaxy with Dr. Chris Conselice

Could there be 36 Alien Civilizations in our Galaxy?
Chris Conselice and his co-author Tom Westby present a new cosmic perspective on the search for life and examine the likely number of Communicating Extra-Terrestrial Intelligent (CETI) civilizations in our Galaxy by utilizing the latest astrophysical information within their recent paper.
Prof. Conselice, the professor for astrophysics at Nottingham university, discusses the idea of how many intelligent civilizations are out there with John Michael Godier. Specifically, how close are they? How many are there? And how many came before them?
Link:
The Astrobiological Copernican Weak and Strong Limits for Intelligent Life
iopscience.iop.org/article/10...
Aliens are out there. But a new study suggests they're more rare than we think. www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion...
How Many Aliens Are in the Milky Way? Astronomers Turn to Statistics for Answers www.scientificamerican.com/ar...
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FOOTAGE:
NASA
ESA/Hubble
ESO - M.Kornmesser
ESO - L.Calcada
ESO - Jose Francisco Salgado (josefrancisco.org)
NAOJ
University of Warwick
Goddard Visualization Studio
Langley Research Center
Pixabay

[@EventHorizonShow]

How Many Intelligent Civilizations Do You think are in our Galaxy??

[@neurostreams]

If it _is_ as low as 36, I wonder how many pairs of those have established a basic 34,000 year handshake with each other.

[@stricknine6130]

I don't know. I do think that they're out there just too far away to have made contact yet.

[@jasonpaul292]

42

[@EventHorizonShow]

@@jasonpaul292 Carry your towel.

[@erikmoore7402]

I think they're out there. I just don't know how far away

[@erikmoore7402]

Always stoked when I see there's new content on your channel.

[@donaldplaysyertrousers134]

I always choke when I don't see tiny bones in my fish

[@donaldjohnson257]

@@donaldplaysyertrousers134.......be4 u eat them??

[@theblankettruth]

I remember an old article in a publication of the Economist. In the article they discussed how their world nations we able to get around the cost of major infrastructure projects due to new technology. It was primarily meant in to context of information infrastructure such as WiFi compared to landline and cables networks. But the aircraft usage and other inventions require less overall investment by the civilization. I always here about the search for Dysons spheres/swarms and other major projects. It has always made me wonder if there is a next technological step we are missing that removes the need for large project or light speed communication. As an example 100 years ago we would have little to no way to see or understand a WiFi signal and if we did we would more than likely assume it’s natural as we would not have the current understanding of what it could be.

[@friendlyone2706]

A million messages in a bottle, waiting for someone, any, to intercept, to share they once lived and sought another to remember it once lived, dreamed and died.

[@chrisdraughn5941]

Sad, like a lonely whale’s song.

[@geoden]

Millions of bottles, all empty.

[@dancooper3066]

The vastness of space makes that impossible. So many variables such as how far and when. Lets say there was intelligent life on a planet next to our closest star. But that was two billion years ago. OR lets say there is inelegant life right now but they are at the other end of the milkyway. It would take over 100 thousand years for a message to reach us or vice versa.

[@js70371]

@@dancooper3066 once we’re past the age of biology and enter the age of post humanism where we become a purely digital and AI based civilization, the time scales necessary to travel the stars and send messages across the galaxy will be as meaningless as the concept of death will be. 💫🍻

[@friendlyone2706]

Natural destruction has happened so many times on this planet, a desire to escape the cycles of destruction should be a mass motive to become 1st interplanetary then interstellar. The same factor should motivate others.

[@charlescook5542]

there's the biological quandary of leaving a solar system , humans living in cities still want to have natural areas to escape to, hard to say whether people can survive in outer space just psychologically, even if we brought some life with us as companions it wouldn't be the same as being on a planet

[@friendlyone2706]

@@charlescook5542 Not all humans desire to escape the city streets for a taste of nature. If all did, our parks, country roads and beaches would be vastly more crowded than they are. There would also not be so many city dwellers who have not a clue how vast our forests are, or that if the whole population of the entire world where to live in one spot and be "only" as densely populated as the world's most densely populated city today, the tiny state of Rhode Island could easily accommodate all of us. What a visit to the country gives the typical city dweller, is a sense of our insignificance in the grand scheme of things. It was when standing alone in the wilderness the poet David first wrote "Oh God, what is man that thou art mindful of him?" I think a trip beyond our solar system would awaken us to our insignificance even more than standing on a mountain.

[@friendlyone2706]

@Vision Thing As did the first Hawaiians, and many others who left all they knew, to never see family and friends again, to settle the islands beyond the horizon. The ones who expanded out into the Pacific could tell from the ocean wave patterns there must be land. For many reasons, they went. In wooden vessels powered by wind and oar they went. Such people exist in every generation, every nation. There will come a time the best of us will visit the guiding stars.

[@friendlyone2706]

@Vision Thing Not so different. We have radio transmissions. Those whose most distant communications were smoke signals and messages in bottles were much more "one way" travelers, at least to the best of their knowledge, they were much more one way. There are people more driven by wondering "What is on the other side of the mountain?", they they will ever want anything already known. Those people will go beyond our solar system, someday. Do you think it an accident the one in America most driven to see Mars colonized is an immigrant from the other side of the world? He may give logical, proper sounding reasons for going to Mars (all designed to appeal to the timid "let's perfect home first" crowd), but the reality is his "let's see the other side of the mountain" personality. Let us try something new. He is not alone, just the currently most visible. Ever listen to the song "i was born under a wandering star" from Paint Your Wagon?

[@bozo5632]

The tech that allows you to colonize another star also makes it possible to prevent (or at least survive) most planetary disasters. The solar system is enormous and contains all the same resources as other solar systems. We could expand "forever" without leaving the solar system. And without abandoning all the local information and infrastructure.

[@serwurehd]

Hi. Your videos became an amazing moment of relaxation during this troubled times. So I came here to thank you. So, thanks.

[@JohnMichaelGodier]

Enjoy! It's meant to be a haven for folks to forget the world for a little while and head out into the universe and dream.

[@Dontlook146]

Event Horizon and SFIA all in one day! What a great day!

[@GodWorksOut]

Nitro15 that’s every Thursday! 😊

[@GrimeHouseBeatz]

Whats sfia

[@Dontlook146]

Michael Gauthier Science and Futurism With Isaac Arthur

[@stricknine6130]

Great interview! I still think the major reason we have yet to see any evidence of other intelligent life is because of distance. I do hope we find out in my life time. Thanks for the episode.

[@bozo5632]

Eat right and exercise and I bet you will live to see proof of ET life (not civs). That's probably all you'll get for a while unless there are lots of advanced aliens.

[@pumpuppthevolume]

yep finding a few planets with oxygen or other signatures will be doable in the upcoming decades...... sending a micro probe with starshot type of setup will be really complicated tho if it in fact can work...... not in my lifetime most likely

[@EricJh21690]

@@pumpuppthevolume I'm 30 going on 31 and I'm hopeful but not exactly optimistic we'll definitively find life while I'm still on this planet. I would be thrilled if we do though.

[@pumpuppthevolume]

@@EricJh21690 yeah... I like to think of it like.... if nothing else from 1961 to 75 there was life on the moon for short periods of time :P

[@daniellebcooper7160]

I liken our present day situation, to that of the Australian Aborigines and the central American Indians, who both thought that there was no one else on the Earth; then the Europeans arrived in their sailing ships.

[@TomSp88]

Keep it up Sir. If only more and more people would recognise this channel and make it mainstream to levels of most popular yt channels. Hope this happens

[@offworksportsoffworksports3352]

Over 100k is good

[@paulconlon4031]

Just chilling with a beer, catching up on missed episodes. 👌

[@EventHorizonShow]

Sounds like a good time Paul.

[@97rfisher]

That music always gives me chills lol

[@eukrazia]

thank you john endlessly for helping me with my sleep. listening to your videos helps relax me and keep my mind off my thoughts. your videos are always so interesting and i love the guests you bring on. i hope you see this message and know you've helped change my life for the better being able to sleep properly ^-^!! 💕

[@JohnMichaelGodier]

You're welcome!

[@thugtrippin]

This interviewer is always on point. Never a dull moment

[@gregmulligan2878]

The fact that there is so much possibility for life compared to the age and the vast distances of the universe.Very thought provoking.

[@chromabotia]

Brilliant. I really enjoyed the conversational flow in this episode. Dr. Conselice is bringing fresh new ideas to SETI, which is very interesting indeed. John, your questions were authoritative and spot on. Thanks...

[@72twist]

Really enjoyed this episode! Great subject and the guest was very enlightening.

[@steverafferty4114]

More like this please John, great work.

[@reallyryan_]

Liked before I even started watching! You know it's gonna be a good show!

[@macaroni1139]

Thanks for the quality content, love your channel!

[@madincraft4418]

If I stood in the middle of Nevada , away from cities, and only had ability to crawl for movement, I would assume the world was empty. I think we won't know Anything until we get ftl travel.

[@sheenaalexis8710]

I've never enjoyed plucking my eyebrows so much! ;) another great conversation. With those numbers, we just can't be alone!

[@guccismom]

Well hi there lol, fancy great minds think alike, this is a great video I'm enjoying very much, always nice to see a friendly familiar face in the comments. 😎

[@sheenaalexis8710]

@@guccismom haha hello there Jason! Yes indeed, John has fantastic content. :)

[@guccismom]

@Sheena Alexis87 he certainly does, I need to look through the channel more, only seen a few of his uploads ( :

[@beebarfthebard]

I am so glad I found this channel!

[@laur-unstagenameactuallyca1587]

Loved this interview, I recently read an article talking about this

[@nicklittle5201]

Great stuff. Love listening to you and your guests.

[@LoreMIpsum-vs6dx]

I'm so alone and isolated by this pandemic that I'm developing a crush on Ana.

[@DyingToLive12]

Do you think your better off alone? do you think your better off alone.....

[@stoneeh]

Leave out "by this pandemic", and you'll be closer to the truth.

[@sheenaalexis8710]

@@stoneeh ......sigh.....

[@terryh.9238]

and not on john michael godier?

[@LoreMIpsum-vs6dx]

@@terryh.9238 Well John is hawt and all but my proclivities are more hetero/alien/cyborg

[@aquicklad972]

Thank you guys! You're awesome!

[@blackfish4147]

Disclaimer: Everything said by the guest is supposition based on theories and models that show more and more flaws every day. No one in the scientific community can even define life, let alone know where to look for it or how long it takes to begin. Our limited perception of the universe cannot even tell if radiation moves in other ways and at speeds that we are too primative to understand or detect. That being said, this is by far the most intellectually stimulating and intelligent channel on any platform, mostly due to the host.

[@MisterXdotcom]

Oh boy, I'm in! Let's dive into!

[@shannondonovan9310]

I think this is my favorite episode to date.. I remember the first time I heard this episode .i think that's the day I fell in love with JMG! Thankyou! I love listening to this EVERYDAY..I don't feel right if I don't..

[@glynbrookes6456]

I just can't get enough of the human story of space and what we are trying to figure out! we'll be doing this for as long as we are earth bound, we'll never be satisfied ☺

[@cordatusscire344]

Oh yes. My body is ready. Thank you for the video!

[@stephendudley4377]

Man, from about 4:12 the zooming in on the red star, absolutely awesome visual!

[@janicewilliams5900]

This is one of the most impressive video I have ever seen great video

[@kylekissack4633]

Love these conversations and thinking about all of the possibilities questions possible answer's or solutions.. in the human frame of mind.. or way of thinking may not be condusive in finding intelligence

[@joes7407]

Love your content so much. Not sure my wife does as I stream it on my bedroom Chromecast each night whilst we go to bed each night. I fall asleep so much better learning and listening to your podcast than anything. I appreciate your in depth analysis on subjects I love. Good night and Godspeed

[@mikesomerset6338]

It has always seemed to me the big hurdle to overcome when considering things such as the Fermi paradox is that we only have one example of evolution. Whilst it may seem reasonable to expect it to be Darwinian in nature, for example, we cannot necessarily assume it. It may well turn out we still have a lot of learning to do in understanding what life is. It may be that we will only start to see Alien life as we achieve that knowledge.

[@jcohen2j]

Please publish this excellent series as an audio podcast feed

[@amangogna68]

Great episode !

[@kevinrobinson2743]

fascinating conversation!

[@cullyx2913]

Fascinating interview

[@richardbeard9391]

good episode

[@jthono]

Great video

[@TheDickbeard]

Loved it

[@elkman7529]

Is it possible to equalize the level of your microphone and your guest microphone? I enjoy your shows but the difference in volume is sometimes startling.

[@donaldplaysyertrousers134]

Yeah. I find my self startled constantly to the point of screaming with shock. My screams make it difficult to hear the initial response properly. Rollercoaster of adrenaline

[@elkman7529]

@Ian Tube Playz The Second Sometimes when you are listening in situations where it will disturb people around when the volume goes way suddenly, it makes it more convenient for the volume to maintain a constant so you are not having to constantly turn it up and down. I was merely pointing that out to make it a better experience for people. But, as usual, people stick their fat heads in where they don't belong when nobody was talking to or about them. Thank you for making the internet a worse place.

[@velazquezjaime149]

Sir my recpect to you and your channel! Thank you to inform us about what is going on in our planet and our future. 👉👍👈 and alien life which is my favorite topic i can only imagine what is outthere!

[@marcabramsky1736]

A very interesting conversation. Great ideas. I tend to think in terms of what is being said too. I don't think we are looking for life the right way. I admire the good Doctors' objectivity which is so much better than most. He allows for possibilities and probabilities based on our limited knowledge. 2 trillion galaxies. No possible way we are it. When the movie 2010 came out years ago it looked at advanced intelligence in the form of a monolith like structure. A shape for something that perhaps has no shape. Energy beings. Perhaps existing in more than one dimension.

[@slinkerdeer]

I may have a couple of minor and unimportant criticisms about some of the things you say, but you know how to interview, and how to let them speak for minutes on end with no input when the interviewee is talking. Your videos are interesting topics and profesionally made. That's why I'm subbed and press like on all your videos that I watch. Thanks John

[@guccismom]

As we have a possible infinitesimally small sample size, to base calculations of intelligent life evolving, we really don't know the amount or kind of possible circumstances that could facilitate life. To realize these are the minimal calculations of potential intelligent life, the actual possibilities, could be astronomical, we have so much we can still learn about the universe. There may actually be infinite amounts of life out there, I know these are answers we may never have, yet I can't contain my curiosity lol.

[@vcuheel1464]

The Milky Way galaxy has a volume of about 8 trillion cubic light years. If there are 40 intelligent civilizations with advanced technology and they are evenly distributed, then that means each civilization is within a bubble of about 200 billion cubic light years. That would be a pretty big haystack in which to be hidden.

[@bozo5632]

You could "hide" a few billion civs in the galaxy and we wouldn't know it. We simply wouldn't see them. We don't have the means yet.

[@ianwilkinson4602]

Intelligent life if it has developed elsewhere, is most likely to have occurred on suitable planets around the earliest stars nearer the Galactic cores of the earliest galaxies, so many may have come and gone long before life on Earth blossomed. But in theory the same conditions can be satisfied at any time, but will any of them overlap in time? unlikely I would say. It may be if we do become a truly intergalactic space faring species we may in time find evidence of their existence, but other than the discoverers the rest or humankind may never hear about it :-)

[@bozo5632]

@@ianwilkinson4602 Galactic cores might not be so hospitable. Lots more nearby supernovae, and more close encounters with other stars that might strip away planets. And other thrills. I think stellar formation and metallicity are valid but overrated concerns. Big stars live such short lives, almost instantaneous on cosmic time scales. I bet there is sufficient material for planets and life sooner than many people expect. In particular the idea that we must be the first because the universe or even the galaxy isn't old enough... It's just silly. There really could be 10B year old civs. That's another thing I find silly: The idea that civs don't last very long. It's an idea born in the early cold war, with technological doom hanging overhead. Actually, a civ a little more advanced than we are, that could predict and mitigate a nearby supernova, and deflect dangerous asteroids, and could settle a million orbital habitats, and especially if it colonized multiple stars, would be effectively immortal.

[@ianwilkinson4602]

@@bozo5632 Yep, in the end it is anyone's guess and a fascinating subject, and if you are like me, it will depend upon how much sci-fi you have read, because that is exactly what it is at present science fiction or fantasy :-) We live in hope, but how often have our hopes been dashed? I won't argue the timescale but it does seem as though the first stars to ignite did so around 180 million years after the big bang, and universe is 13.7 billion years old give or take, based on fossil record life began on Earth prior to 3.7 billion years ago. The first hominids broke away from their primate relatives about 6 billion years ago, modern humans evolved from those early hominid ancestors between 200,000 and 300,000 years ago. And look what we have achieved in a relatively short space of time.

[@bozo5632]

@@ianwilkinson4602 Your timeline has a ~10B yr gap, from 180M yrs when stars first formed until 10B yrs when life on earth started. That leaves out most of history. There was plenty of time for lots of everything before the Earth even formed.

[@immowen2019]

Amazing

[@bozo5632]

If there were a million ET civs, what would we expect to see? I don't think we would see them at all, yet, without some amazing luck. We don't have the tools for even looking yet.

[@waynerandall5576]

Question, how many species/life forms are Or have been on earth ? Billions ? My point being only one on this planet can read and write hence just because a plant may have life forms what's the probability they could read and write ?

[@sqdtnz]

I notice in these discussions people always assume advanced intelligent life will use a lot of energy, will colonize other worlds, expand. This is really based on our current lifestyle, but perhaps energy becomes irrelevant at a certain technological level, because perhaps they could just create it from the vacuum of space, and why would they need multiple starsystems? Maybe they become smaller as they advance. Maybe they discover interstellar travel is basically impossible or unfeasible, or they did it for a while, but don't see a need anymore.

[@michaelpaparelli3227]

The distances are mindblowing. No wonder time and space become more or less the same.

[@joey_after_midnight]

There is the concept of Entropy.. which is sort of a Waterfall from high to low. Working with the flow is easier than against the flow, and there may be machines that extract even greater efficiencies by Encouraging or Assisting Entropy in the direction it flows, and the result left behind is a residue that "appears natural" or Unaltered .. but is further along than say a natural progression towards greater Entropy. So disturbing the environment is less efficient for a more advanced civilization. Measuring the Infared or Red Shift as a technomarker may be counter intuitive as "Looking right at the problem" but not seeing the civilizations for the Entrophic Trees.. An example is sort of what CPU efficiencies teach us.. computing at lower slower temperatures is more efficient than being Hot and Large and In Charge.. so the techno signatures we should be looking for might be microscopic or subatomic and operating at much slower speeds.. increasingly so.. so that more evolved a civilization becomes.. the smaller and slower it becomes.. changing its "frame rate" so it evolves so "its future" is much further into the "future" of the Universe.. this kind of slow time travel might take them to the Ends of the Universe.. but extract the most energy and resources from the Universe.. while "passing us by".. we live our lives like a Mayfly.. or a brief "Blip" while their civilization evolves slower "into the future" and even migrates microscopically to other stars like Red Dwarfs.. which to their ways of perceiving time are very accessible in very slow space arks. A Bacteria lives a life every 2 minutes.. a year of our time to them would be an infinitude of time.. but a CPU lifeform running on a microchip might slow down its experience of time and flip that on its head and a year of our time to it might be a mere microsecond. Civilizations might even go direct from microbes to advanced machine life without going through our Macro evolution stage.. the moon Europa might be one great computer its oceans all linked up and a substrate for a whole new physics being simulated on it or in it.. ignoring our physical laws.. very Solaris like. In fact a World Computer that evolves in a very cold environment like the moon Titan or Triton might be much more prevalent in the Galaxy.

[@LMFAORomania]

Just made my evening. Romania.

[@8-7-styx94]

The conclusion I reached a long time ago was that space faring life requires a bunch of things that don't seem to be all that common. So they need a varied environment, one which changes often between things like seasons, a high/low tide would help as well. This is to mix things up, stir the chemical pot as it were. Definitely an atmosphere that allows for fire/simplistic heat production capable of smelting temperatures without igniting. They would likely need liquid water for biochemical purposes, would also need phosphorus and most of the periodic table for chemistry purposes. A stable star that isn't going to die/explode in a few billion years, relatively high metallicity as well for aforementioned elements. A biological impetus to thrive, not just survive. Probably this comes from varied environs and competition but that all too important curiosity is essential. Thinking about those, without any one of them advanced life is impossible. I'm sure there's more as well.

[@jefffradsham2297]

I guess which ever civilisation solves the problem of crossing the vast distances of space in a reasonable, or survivable length of time with a reasonable expenditure of energy , wins. GOAL!!

[@matthewking4232]

I believe there are (on random) an extraterrestrial civilization of some sort every 35-75 light years away, most of which are not on the plane for are instruments to currently detect, but those heat balls of fire out ther are in my mind factories for life but also environmental change over time spans we can't comprehend and/or understand. Imo

[@syirogane]

If we couldn't comprehend or understand those timescales, then how is it we can discuss them with any coherency? Oh, sure, any attempt at comparison shows our lives (or even our civilizations' lives) to be mere blips lost in the noise, but understanding that shows that we DO comprehend those timescales, and some people refuse to accept being mere blips and thus reject those timescales. However, that goes to show that those people do understand and are terrified.

[@steffenscheibler5849]

In our Galaxy? At this exact time? At most 3. Probably just 1 or 2. And yes... we are one.

[@Greenhead24]

Oh ya ,here we go ,just layed down and put on an EH video and ready for bed,I love it ever week

[@swirvinbirds1971]

Amazing and saddening there are things in this universe that we will never be able to see and as time goes on more and more stuff forever escapes our grasp.

[@Scorch428]

I dont really see us colonizing our galaxy even. We will try, but with the large distances, solar systems will just turn on each other. Think intercontinental nukes are scary? How about interplanetary nukes on their way :P I just dont think a civilization like us can exist without tearing itself apart. Youd have to get rid of literally ALL the bad eggs :(

[@Scorch428]

I mean we cant even all get on the same page on EARTH. Countries should be united, with one central UN ruling on decisions instead of war. We need to get to that point before we start expanding. Cant have a "Russia, US, and China" on every planet.

[@blackpinkslave9969]

@@Scorch428 Very unlikely for them to turn on eachother considering it will end with their own demise like it is with the Mutual Destruction Scenario that has kept us from World Wars for 70 years and counting.

[@bomma2694]

You just earned a new sub ☺

[@danilorainone406]

how to achieve superluminal velocities is in the works,whether it will be expressed in a vehicle we don't know,superfast particles might mean an XXX speedup of communications across millions of light years

[@xanth987]

Aside from my goofy response I do have a interesting question. Given the various stages of civilizations would we be able to actually recognize another species if they had a massive head start or went bye bye long before humans got out the Tigris euphrates region and spread across the planet over the years. I’m often reminded of the 2001 odessey series by Clarke from 2001 to 3001 as well as the books by Jack McDevitt

[@Jochadow]

This channel has so many lovely conversations. So refreshing considering the landscape of KZbin.

[@colinsmith484]

Fuck you!! 😉 kidding!! Just a reminder it is you tube!

[@llothsedai3989]

Are there materials/objects that reflect back and mirror back radio waves. If that's the case, those mirrors would bounce back and forth essentially forever if the transmitted somewhere in the first place?

[@knotkool1]

keeping the odds out of it, there is concrete, verifiable evidence of 1 form of life, let alone intelligent life in the universe. that would be, terrestrial life. we are alone. prove me wrong. while keeping an open mind to the possibility of discovering alien life, we should focus space efforts on colonization as the priority.

[@lilab.stevenson7609]

Some people believe that there's only one creator that made the heavens and the earth and the stars . Well this Creator created energy and made it into a life form. Energy Never Dies it just changes forms. Energy will always find a way that's just the way it's meant to be it doesn't matter what type of energy you are it's meant to keep going

[@Kenny-qo5tz]

We keep asking when we’re going to find intelligent life? But the question is when are they going to find us? or if they have, when are they going to present themselves.

[@maidomelker1063]

If we last 50-100k years more there's no question about "human" civilization lasting "forever" as a "Milkyway" civilization in some form of life in our universe

[@snivla4]

Great topic as usual. I used to believe our galaxy was full of intelligent life but I realise now its a bit early in the age of the universe to be that packed. I believe there is only one panet at time with a civilisation . Any way yet again we are at my favourite time of the week and even though again its a bit early I aint saving it im watching it all right now. Thanks guys your the best...

[@bozo5632]

It's not early. This is prime time.

[@snivla4]

@@bozo5632 I normally save EVent Horizon for just before bedtime....Its really good to be relaxed as you listen. Well it helps me that way a bit like an adult bedtime story....

[@bozo5632]

​@@snivla4 It's not early in the age of the universe. This is prime time.

[@snivla4]

@@bozo5632 Oh sorry....I think your right but at the same time I think our type of intelligence is very rare. I think there may be a great deal of planets with life on but I believe its vegetation and animals but no seriously intelligent beings. Im not for sure like everybody but as I learn things which I have with JMG and Event Horizon my opinions change a great deal. Im just glad I was alive when as humans we have managed to get off our planet and have a good look at whats outside. Thanks for the conversation though its great to chat with other Fans here.

[@bozo5632]

@@snivla4 I agree that intelligence must be rare compared to simpler life. I bet life is common... But it's just my guess.

[@txrwauy]

I can't tell you how many times I looked up at the night sky and asked this question. It would be amazing if carl sagan was right and there was a Encylopedia Galactica we could access - we could compare the history of our civilisation to others. I bet that that would have had their fair share of mistakes and tragedies too (I always think of the fate of the Krell in "forbidden planet" - destroyed by the darker side of their primitive past)- as well as triumphs of science and culture.

[@Strothy2]

First things first, like before listening :D

[@forjustice7201]

i don't understand when people say we are the only intelligent species in the entire universe. It's just saying we are the only people in a room in a building that made of trillions of rooms and you even can't see if there is someone or something in one of your neighbor rooms

[@DneilB007]

Just a weird thought: one topic that keeps on coming up is the idea of van Neumann probes, and the concern that such a probe might rework the environment and mine the solar system’s resources. If I recall correctly, life on earth was evolving into an anaerobic form, until it was completely sidetracked by the Great Oxygenating Event. Following that, life on the planet completely shifted gears and evolved more and more complex oxygen-using life forms. So, perhaps the reason that we haven’t seen evidence of van Neumann probes is because we haven’t been looking in the mirror enough.

[@Ridingthewaves305]

How hard it would be for any civilization to detect us? We have the voyager out in space which is extremely small, so what else do we have other than radio frequencies that have a limited distance. Not really much at all

[@someguy999]

Most of the discussions on the possibility of extraterrestrial has physicists chiming in, but they often have a poor understanding of evolution. I would invite this guest to read up on some of the criticisms of SETI from the evolutionary biologists. I think that he has some misconceptions regarding evolution. For example, he suggested that higher intelligence could have arisen earlier if the dinosaurs weren't wiped out. This assumes that evolution has a "goal" in mind, such as higher intelligence. Evolution doesn't have goals, such as increased intelligence or complexity. What matters are traits that provide a reproductive advantage. Dinosaurs were well adapted to their environments, and we don't know if increased intelligence would have been a benefit or hindrance. Considering that they were around for millions of years, I don't think that they were likely to evolve our level of intelligence. Furthermore, evolution has constraints, and a given species won't necessarily evolve traits that could be beneficial if there isn't an evolutionary trajectory that would lead to this trait. Although we can't assume that the Earth is in any way the norm, we can look at life to speculate on the likelihood of higher intelligence being common elsewhere in the galaxy. Human level intelligence has not arisen independently on Earth, which suggests that it is by no way expected to evolve. We also know that it comes with some major costs, such as increased energy consumption.

[@mrtomsaa]

There is a good chance that human level intelligence would not have evolved yet, if dinosaurs weren't wiped out cause we don't know, if reptiles even have capacity for higher intelligence, while with them still in the picture there would be a lot less chances for mammals.

[@danebeck7900]

Awesome comment and I totally agree. The idea of human intelligence as the "end point" of evolution has to be one of the most common fallacies. As if they think each step in evolution was part of a grand scheme to fulfill the prerequisites for a technological civilization. That's not Darwinism... it's creationism in disguise. Every species is by definition a transitional species. There is no end point or goal of evolution. Those that are most effective at reproducing outbreed those that don't... and even that doesn't need to be planned. It simply is, and the same dynamic will play out on every other planet with life as well. If the alien reproductive economy favors staying in a primitive state forever, then that's how it's gonna be.

[@jimgraham6722]

I think it also depends what you mean by intelligence. I live in a rural area surrounded by kangaroos and magpie birds. It is clear to me these creatures are not driven by instinct alone, they have a form of sentient intelligence together with individual personalities and strategies for communicating with one and other (and with me) to achieve what they want.

[@randybobandy4283]

If we were to find just 1 intelligent civilization willing to communicate with us, imagine how quickly we would find more, were we to exchange technology, star maps, that kinda thing. Like any new discovery, the first one is seemingly the most challenging.

[@OptimusGnarkill]

GET THE POPCORN READY BOYS this ones gonna be a doozy

[@ianwilkinson4602]

YES, they are waiting for us to become civilized and tolerant of things we don't understand. A fat chance of that ever happening.

[@amitojsingh8144]

Listening to this while lying on my terrace in a small Village in India, I wonder how would it be for early homo sapeins in Africa thinking what lies beyond nile & how we might be alone venturing out in Europe & finding out Neanderthals or European sailors finding the new world. What would they be thinking as they set foot in the lands unknown.

[@agentx7138]

So far there is one we should make more as soon as possible!

[@davidking4672]

Do you think eventually we will figure out how to traverse time/space... or maybe not..?

[@robertproffitt287]

I have question ..with there bein 2 trillion galaxies in infinite universe ..isn't there possiblity of repeating copies eventuallly..of course this goes with in relation to multiverse. But this is in a closed syetem.how would entropy play a role??

[@beemrmem3]

You’re are optimistic, yes

[@slinkerdeer]

Getting there! Lol I'll be very impressed if a video discussing nearby observers of our race comes out.

[@geoden]

Unfortunately, not going to happen. As many statured physicists have said, it depends on what we call ''nearby''! Non scientific people simply don't understand astronomical distances.

[@ValiantKojiroKurosawa]

I'm a little bit curious about a certain civilization filter, could antibiotics resistance be a filte r?

[@timothykrause2327]

Anything that can kill them can be a filter...so yes.

[@craigthescott5074]

Are we alone in the universe? Yes. So there’s no other civilizations in the universe? No there are but they are alone too.

[@nala3038]

We marvel at the possibility of intelligent life in the universe, while here on Earth, we mindlessly eradicate the other intelligent beings we share the planet with.

[@channelwarhorse3367]

Event Horizon thank you. When traveling the stars go somewhere with food, use event horrizon power projection to energize frame . Fear me Rs is just G

[@steffenscheibler5849]

To form complex carbon-based life requires an environment which is diverse relative to it's specific needs but actually in a narrow band when you look at it from an absolute perspective. Diverse in the sense that you want your planet to regularly have areas outside of the habitable zone for any forms of life, whilst having the majority of it inside. This creates boundary zones where evolution can take place. And this is the crux. You have tropical life in the tropics which wanders north or south and encounters the boundaries of its habitability. Then genetic drift kicks in and finds some off-spring developing traits favourable to the more temperate zones or not. And consequently some of those tropical life forms permanently wander north/south. Life won't be any different anywhere else. Even if it is not carbon-based. The only difference non-carbon based life will really illustrate is the temperature/pressure in which it is "happy" and the amount of time it takes to produce generations of itself. Evidence from here would indicate that life progresses geometrically. So once the right set of basic conditions exists, life goes from multi-cellular to technological rather quickly. The dinosaurs "failed", although I think they didn't. I think they succeeded...just not at technology. Due to their size. Think about what is needed to drive a species towards technology... being a big badass won't drive your species in that direction. Being small will. You are small. You need to fight bigger opponents. Ideally you are prey, developing intellect to evade predators...but ALSO developing intellect to hunt. The skills needed for exploration need BOTH sets of talents.... So technological intelligence will be very rare.

[@moladiver6817]

The moment we find microbial life on another planet everything changes radically. Then life itself goes from possibly very rare to probably very common. I have no idea whether this will happen. I sure hope it will. And if it does then I'm mostly curious about the fundamental chemistry that makes it alive. What would the Martian or Europaean equivalent of genetics look like? And what would be the implications if we find that it's basically the same as genetics on Earth? As is always the case some questions will be answered but many more new questions will pop up.

[@wmorris3484]

One of the best episodes! I drive over the road at night so.... So if our intelligent civilization is based on 100 years since we transmitted into space and shortly after we split the atom and visited the moon then it is safe to conclude that intelligence brings about civilization suicide. Now if we can imagine other intelligent civilizations that had no Jupiter and for 250,000 years as long as man has actually walked the earth they would have been bombarded from the sky so often in order to evolve they would do it faster. We have had famine and war and disease but the heavens has never really scared man to the point of actual death(extinction) every 100,000 years or so. So perhaps they would have a better instinct than we as to how it all can end. Perhaps that’s how you end up a Kardishev 1 civilization and perhaps they are the ones who visit us on earth as part of their classroom curriculum. Only to study us as what not to do and how we are doomed. Man has always had the inclination that a superior being was taken care of it. When actuality it was jupiter. By that virtue we feel impervious least it be gods will. Man will destroy man and his last words he will say “ you see! It was gods will you liberal snowflake! Trump in 24!”. But I digress....if mankind is to ever level up then he and she needs to put their big boy/girl pants on. We have by accident terraformed the earth. It can be done on Mars and if we can vent some of what we have put into our atmosphere then perhaps like in a bathroom shower we could vent Venus? Thank you. Is that you and Anna in the music video? Somebody that I use to know? Great song. Your interaction with Anna is awesome. You really need to be on the discovery channel.

[@chrissalad3069]

Dank

[@NeroSurvives]

Captain John, I don't know about falling into this event Horizon. Have you thought about Playing Elite dangerous? It's more of an experience than a video game.

[@JohnMichaelGodier]

Haven't yet, but I did extensively play the Mass Effect trilogy. It stepped a bit beyond a normal game.

[@dylanfoster7037]

I can't remember where I saw this at, but I heard that the center of the milky way(vast majority of it) would be inhospitable to life. So our exisistence may be due to the galatic orbit of the sun.

[@angier7607]

Yea... The middle of the galaxy is thought to be habital To far in too is thought to have much radiation. To far out. Stars are too new

[@londonspade5896]

Yeah, I'm surprised he used such a simple 'average' position for stars within the galaxy to estimate distance between civilisations, it's also worrying because the position of our solar system within the galaxy is just as important as the composition of our planet, orbit around our star etc.. Basically there are less civilisations than this paper would predict. Maybe in 100 years we'll have telescopes the size of the moon and will be able to *really* measure the atmospheric properties of other planets and make better estimates. Fermi Paradox is mind blowing. I think the most reasonable explanation is we're in a simulation deliberately without other civilisations, for better or worse.

[@dylanfoster7037]

@@angier7607 I'm not sure, but I remember that the supermassive black hole in the center of the Milky Way is putting off alot of Hawkin's radiation so that's why it's inhospitable. The fact that the sun is on the middle of a spiral arm and not too close but not too far enough out is why we're in the goldilocks zone of our galaxy. It was put forth as a possible explanation to the fermi paradox. I was more talking about the literal center, not a center perimeter

[@justinhayes4356]

We are sitting prey. I’m all for detecting signals but not really sure why we are sending them out.

[@YnseSchaap]

One in every galaxy......life is a growth model

[@Sarnarath]

If we see UFO's should we consider this to be a Intergalatic welcoming party or just random aliens that are close?

[@commonsense9176]

You don't

[@commonsense9176]

@ALF you should definitely think

[@BRUXXUS]

I'd never even considered that it's possible that the same mechanism that allow for natural to create intelligent life may be the same mechanism that causes all advanced civilisations to destroy themselves.... We need humanity to evolve beyond evolution to have any hope.