Evergrande Ordered to Liquidate - What Now?

[@raul12300]

I swear just a couple of days ago I was wondering what happend with the whole evergrande thing since its been months since I last heard about this huge problem. Thank you for keeping us well informed as always!

[@cdo...49283]

Literally same..

[@TheDeltatangowhiskey]

Same here

[@dengernoodle4391]

That means you killed it

[@hokroeger]

Lehman Brothers Bankrupted And Gone For Good. What Now? Costco About To Bankrupt. What Now? Boeing About To Go Bankrupt. What Now? ICE Car Industry About To Go Bankrupt. What Now?

[@phunweng962]

I am Chinese here let me providing new context. China have been purposely postponing this thing. They’re trying to just ‘ignore the law this time’ bc obviously they can. In other hand they’ve been also making HongKong sharing legal decisions with them (I don’t know the correct term here but it will make China and Hongkong court acknowledge each other’s judgement) The purpose of this is to let China jail any Hongkonger with China’s law easily. But it has backfired in a way China doesn’t want. Again China has an option to just: ignore the entire thing too in their convenience. But let’s see.

[@peterbett3076]

Richard, every video you make you must get a warmth sense that “the plain bagel” was a brilliant idea for the channel name. Once again a resolutely balanced and non-sensationalist explanation, thanks. Keep up the great work 🫶🏼

[@CharlesBallowe]

The presale mechanism seems broken and not that hard to fix/prevent future failures. In the US, presales are held in escrow until the project is ready for occupancy. The developer finances construction separately and pays that off/banks profit when the escrow is released and the housing is delivered. Move to that model and you lose the ponzi nature of selling the next project to finish the current one.

[@thewhitefalcon8539]

That's still a different kind of stupid because now you have this big pile of money but you're not allowed to use it to pay for things so you're forced to borrow the money you already have and pay interest you wouldn't have needed to pay

[@robwayne]

​@@thewhitefalcon8539 But that "big pile of money you can't use" is the only incentive to not pull a scam. That's the best way to do things, otherwise you get an Evergrande.

[@douglassun8456]

Yes, and I was shocked to learn that China didn't have such a system. I can't imagine paying a real estate developer that kind of money purely on faith. Unfortunately, it seems like that isn't the only problem that the real estate sector is going to face, either in the short or long-term. It's only a matter of time before prices plummet - lots of slack capacity (condos built but unsold), demographic collapse (Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences estimates the population will fall to 600 million by the end of the century), and widespread demoralization among the current generation that ought to be entering the job market, starting families and buying homes ("Lying Flat").

[@CharlesBallowe]

@@thewhitefalcon8539 it moves the risk. Right now Chinese property buyers take out a mortgage, give the money to the developer, and start making mortgage payments on a home that doesn't exist. If the developer collapses, they lose their money with nothing to show for it. The presale mechanisms are often not a full mortgage (financing arranged, deposit paid, but since the bank hasn't finished the payment there's no interim cost to the buyer) etc, but if the developer fails the escrow goes back to the buyer.

[@TheChadD315]

​@@thewhitefalcon8539 What would be a better solution?

[@LuukP20]

Hey, I love these videos. You are one of the few finance focused youtubers that are not focused on sensation of over the top content. Wish there were more like you/your channel. Keep up the good work!

[@MrMadvillan]

richard coffin is a sic western gunslinger name.

[@Flaccid_Banana]

Or a sick Canadian financial professional lol

[@twistsnakeanklesvids261]

When he said "final nail in the coffin" I was going to ask if that was his Onlyfans.

[@mat3714]

I think he's an off branch of the graveyard lineage.

[@MayorMcC666]

Sheriff Dick Coffin

[@Danji_Coppersmoke]

Someone came into the saloon via the swing door and shouted" Mr. Coffin is coming". Then everyone pulled out their revolvers.... that is the start of a story..

[@hakuhyo174]

I think the scale matters too. In 2008, when Lehman Brother liquidated, it had $613 billions in debt, ~4% of US $14.8 trillion GDP back then. When Evergrande was ordered to liquidate last week, it has $297 billions in debt or ~1.6% of China’s $17.52 trillion GDP. Also, Evergrade has debt-to-equity gearing ratio of 2.7 (though admittedly, it’s impossible to liquidate these asset at appraised value) - but still, Lehman brother before liquidation had debt-to-equity gearing ratio of ~30.9. Overall, Chinese real estate is in bad shape but much better shape than US real estate bubble burst in 08 or Japan’s in 92. It’s mostly caused by oversupply steaming from leverage and easy credit, not overinflated property price.

[@EconClimate]

something us finace bro denies and fail to admit about lehman brother

[@userunknown7675]

I mostly agree but the last part is ignorig "tofu dreg". There is way to much corruption in China to even guess how many of the buildings build in the last 2 decades are absolute death traps due to cutting cost on everything.

[@justSTUMBLEDupon]

Thank you

[@justSTUMBLEDupon]

@@userunknown7675you got a point there. There is also another bigger real estate company going in the same direction. I forget the name of it though but it’s the next to go in China.

[@triadwarfare]

​@@justSTUMBLEDupon country garden. Also, seems the other guy is spewing Chinese propaganda as they're taking Chinese statistics at face value. As a rule of thumb, never take countries with an open corruption culture at face value and always assume they're lying or inflating the numbers up.

[@AReardon14]

The Plain Bagel makes a toast joke?!

[@kyletan4063]

Literally unwatchable... Outrages!

[@MegaLietuvislt]

Cancel this glute monster!

[@lbgstzockt8493]

I yearn for baked-goods based humor

[@Magic_beans_]

If anybody needs to be taken down a peg, it’s waffles.

[@jb_makesgames2264]

The Evergrand bankruptcy highlights an even bigger issue for creditors, that is what rights do creditors have in when is essentially a state controlled enterprise. This also highlights difference in bankruptcy laws and rights between Hong Kong, mainland china and foreign jurisdictions. If foreign lenders feel they will never get anything back foreign capital will dry up in china.

[@mrwolsy3696]

Chinese stocks will turn into junk.

[@helloiamchuck]

The lesson to external (non-Chinese) investors has already been communicated in big red letters by the CCP: if your investments in China go south, you are SOL, with no legal path available for any kind of recovery. In this kind of environment, only the most degenerate gamblers would invest in China, and they're going to demand an astonishing risk premium.

[@andrewwotherspoona5722]

😮Evergrande will barely damage the Chinese economy.

[@suciured7066]

I mean it has so far...@@andrewwotherspoona5722

[@AdumbroDeus]

​@@andrewwotherspoona5722 Probably, assuming that the way China handles it doesn't spook foreign creditors.

[@PatrickM66B]

Love hearing a level headed reasonable take on these matters. Keep up the great work!

[@GQuinnCoaching]

Fair minded, even handed information. THANK YOU!! Never change that. You're single handedly more useful than 70% of the zeitgeist.

[@labibbinbakar]

Your Content Stands Out In A Refreshing Way! I Truly Appreciate The Absence Of Background Music In Your Videos, As It Allows Your Message And Personality To Shine Through Without Distractions. Keep Up The Great Work!

[@synergygaming604]

Plain bagel is so plain and I love it.

[@jimbojimbo6873]

What because he’s white and ginger? Unnecessary bro

[@triarii9257]

He is the bagel, you are the cream cheese.

[@Squatle]

I really appreciate these down to earth videos. Not the usual apocalyptic/drama laden approach many KZbin video go for. This video is a sober, informative approach

[@VOLUMEnightclub]

Hi, I have experience in Chinese real estate here. One thing I think wasn’t said in this video which is different in investing often times it’s several family put money together to buy one property. There really isn’t a house flip mentality which is why you haven’t seen a price drop.

[@pseudocynic1]

More likely CPC control of the economy limiting supply/demand fundamentals of the pricing structure. In China, you can't separate the government from business even if it isn't always immediately obvious to the naked eye.

[@VOLUMEnightclub]

@@pseudocynic1 it’s very obvious in China, we arnt unaware of it. I think western economist really have a bad understanding the “blue collar” investor of China. Prices can’t drop if people don’t sell there units…Chinese households are just more conservative so most people arnt “stretched” to the limit and will just keep paying the mortgages. But there really isn’t a financial mechanism that incentivizes quick sales or flips…ok, let’s say you dump ur house. Where will you put that money? You lose on the mortgage maybe ~15%, but if you had put it in HK stock index ur down ~45% over 5 years or Shanghai down ~15% this past year alone…or you just have it sit in a bank and have inflation eat it. Hope this puts more context into Chinese households psychology.

[@pseudocynic1]

@@VOLUMEnightclub Thank you for the insight. As I myself haven't been in China for over 40 years, I can't speak to the micro-economic environment or cultural factors and your observations are interesting and most welcome. From what we read in western media about "ghost cities" and large numbers of unsold real estate developments, I would think that market forces would drive prices down, especially in the case of an insolvent developer like Evergrande but evidently the real estate market in the PRC doesn't operate in the way one would expect. Perhaps the government favours a lengthier process of asset disposal to maintain a stable pricing environment in order to save leveraged owners from also becoming insolvent.

[@VOLUMEnightclub]

@@pseudocynic1 so 2 things. 1. Ghost cities do exist but they’re in areas that no one wants to live, it would be like building 250k city in Montana and just expecting people. The problem is these cities had “middle class” investors…anyone with money bought property internationally (like my wife has property in Australia). So they have enough to pay the mortgage but don’t have anywhere else to put the money, so it’s somewhat “hope” it’ll go up. 2. I haven’t seen people talk about this but both the CCP and Chinese don’t have a deep understanding of finance and financial mechanism. Like Xi studied chemical engineer. So they have single variable solutions for there problems. They don’t understand quantitive easing etc. which is why if we read the news in the west China reports “everything is good” or “bankrupt”Evergrande probably could have been saved if they sold off assets over the years. but it’s not just the CCP but also educated Chinese, like I’ve known college graduates who don’t know what a PE ratio is (that was a mind blown moment). It comes down to, people just fundamentally not trusting numbers that govt reports or companies for that matter. Also a lot (not all) Chinese business owners don’t think long term, a lot of the people especially youth open up businesses believing it’ll go bankrupt in a few years it’s really strange. Because the lack of trust I think people just don’t study or learn them because they hold little value if reading or understanding a business profile. Idk if you’ll have a chance to go back but the people are fascinating. I would say unlike the US where our government somewhat accurately represents the zeitgeist of our culture. The people and CCP don’t think the same or portray the same mentality.

[@lolcatjunior]

Lehman brothers cost: $691 billion US economy(2008): $14 trillion Evergrande cost: $330 billion China economy (2023): $18.8 trillion Evergrande and Lehman Brothers cannot be compared.

[@creepersonspeed5490]

exactly, this is a way smaller cut.

[@ManforSomeMarkets]

8:15 I think this is the part where creditors will be reminded that mainland China is a state dominated economy that normally chooses stability over market mechanisms. It’s not unique to China, but it is part of the reason that most EM’s have spent 50+ years emerging.

[@dawsonje]

Bagel - I think one thing you could have touched on is the domino affect of this kind of issue with such a large entity. Since they are in the property business, The $86B of accounts payable you mentioned are mostly going to be money owed to subcontractors who were actually building their properties. These companies will also be in bad shape, with huge exposure to evergrande and now won’t be paid for their work. Many of those companies also owe other smaller subs (like civil construction firms owing their cement suppliers, etc), and the dominoes start to fall.

[@jshowao]

More than likely, the government will step in and pay these contractors for a cut of the property earnings once sold. And as he said, evergrandes assets and liabilities can be sold to other developers who have the liquidity necessary to finish the projects.

[@watchm4ker]

​@@jshowao Problem is, alot of those properties *have* been sold, in advance, and in full. But a substantial chunk of those payments had been used to secure further land for development projects, instead of simply building the ones they had.

[@nikolatsirkov]

Good and fair analysis, absent of unnecessary theatrics (unlike Grahams of the world).

[@acceleratingthesupernatural]

Finally early! Always good to see something new from you

[@oltedders]

Evergrande has over 1 million unfinished presold projects that have no chance of being completed. The bank loans that launched these projects are still required to be paid off despite the prospect of the buyers never receiving anything for their money. Defaulting on a loan is not an option. The money is still owed, and a large fine is levied on top of still owing the balance on the loan. Default also comes with restrictions on travel and access to educational opportunities for ones children. This is more serious than has been presented with the failure of Evergrande.

[@henriikkak2091]

One million or one billion?

[@oltedders]

@henriikkak2091 I have seen videos that say there are enough housing units (not all finished) for 3X the population.

[@jimmparker4]

Great video! I was eager for this as soon as I saw the news

[@henghistbluetooth7882]

I look forward to Richard’s next channel ‘The Plain Toast’.

[@nicholasvinen]

"Dry Toast"?

[@daple1997]

Slightly burnt toast

[@MarztheStoic]

I like "Just Toast".

[@alext1723]

"Toasted"

[@shivambakhshi4859]

I liked your style of presentation. Most KZbinrs talking about China are on either end of the extreme either praising China to no end or completely bashing it. I found this relatively objective and spoken based on research. Well done.

[@joshuapatrick682]

wait, they still haven't gotten that ship out of the SUEZ canal?

[@Toonrick12]

That's EverGREEN.

[@schonsense]

lmao, I came here to say this. I get them swapped murphy's law style.

[@hiddensquid42069]

great explanation as always! keep up the good work

[@niurandoneich]

China's real state sounds to me like 2007 Spain multiplied by 50. It would be really interesting if you made a video about that and how it compares to China's real state situation today.

[@rcbrascan]

The situation is not similar, in Spain the banks were loosely lending out money to developers and buyers who couldn't pay it back when the market turned while in China, the buyers had the money to pay for it but the developers didn't have enough money to complete the construction and had to borrow from investors.

[@Tounguepunchfartbox]

@@rcbrascanalso the local governments didn’t have the money to pay for it either.

[@hamzamahmood9565]

It's 2008 financial crisis multiplied by 50

[@creepersonspeed5490]

​@@hamzamahmood9565if you look at the percentage size, it's not comparable. this is a blip in the Chinese economy

[@testacals]

@@hamzamahmood9565 Not really. This is much smaller and much more local.

[@michaelswami]

Appreciate the balanced view.

[@Feynman981]

China also wants the real estate sector to cool down. People spend too much money on rent and mortgages, and too little on consuming products. By decreasing their expenses for housing through a crisis, they increase their spending in more productive sectors. Higher real estate costs after all are a drag to the over all economy.

[@aL3891_]

Level headed and objective as always, great stuff!

[@acecool1715]

Thank Plain Bagel for the information. I'm wondering, does this situation differ from the 2008 crisis that the 2008 crisis was caused by people borrowing so much money to buy houses and could not afford to pay it pay which led to banks owning so many houses without being able to sell these houses and bankrupt versus evergrand borrowed so much money to build houses but could not finish and sell houses to pay money back to their invertors right ?

[@levizraelit5557]

Thank you for the clear and detailed analysis!

[@mrrolandlawrence]

Evergrande story is gold for creators of financial content and speculation.

[@Cheesecake99YearsAgo]

😂

[@terryleong7]

It was toast 2 years ago - the delay of 2 years allow certain parties to get their hands on the leftover real assets

[@ashugart]

Is part of the issue that Evergrande under charged for the cost of these properties to build? Rising cost of building materials would have eaten into their profits but if I was going to build a 1000 unit property and I sold all the units, in theory would know what my cost/sales would be. Or did they over extend and keep building beyond what they had sales for.

[@Renatofsa355]

Finally, an honest influencer! Great video. And it's not a capitalism propaganda. Good job.

[@Michael_Raymond]

China: "Hong Kong is part of China now" HK: (liquidates Chinese company) China: "not like that"

[@broker17-u9t]

You explain stuff in a way that is both sophisticated and understandable at the same - time. This blend of explanation has been a huge asset for your channel. I will not say Keep up the Good Work because I am sure you'll continue to do so!

[@SubliminalKings]

I'm not a financial savvy, but isn't using new customer's money to pay off old customers is the definition of MLM systems? Ir is that the default in the real estate building industry?

[@pseudocynic1]

That's more like the definition of a Ponzi scheme which is fraud and illegal (e.g. Bernie Madoff). A Ponzi is an investment structure whereby an artificially high return is created for early investors using money from new investors while the sponsors steal from the investors' pool of capital. New investors are attracted by the high "return" until the structure eventually collapses from too many investors demanding their money back. At this point the con artists (sponsors) typically disappear. MLM is a pyramid scheme which is an unethical business model (e.g. Herbalife) but not strictly illegal because there is an actual product involved that is theoretically being sold to customers. It relies on multiple levels of distribution to flog a product with the proceeds being distributed up the MLM structure. This incentivizes the sales force to recruit new salespeople under them because they take a cut from every sale made by the poor suckers below them. MLM organizations all look like a pyramid, hence the name.

[@Akixkisu]

The mechanism is different, the customer of an mlm is the agent who also tries to resell part of the product.

[@DonDee123]

Great quality content as usual 👍

[@stevenmitchell7830]

Does the court ruling force the company name to change to "Grande for a While"?

[@loot6]

All this in a country that already has the most expensive houses in the world in comparison with salary.

[@aliwaheed906]

I've looked at many graphs in my career, but that graph from Reuters made me choke on water.

[@loot6]

You're missing the problem in that the general public invest in real estate in China far more than anything else, very different to the US where people invest in all kinds of things. That's why it's such a huge problem.

[@1stGUARDTANK]

Blah blah blah. Keep coping.

[@loot6]

@@1stGUARDTANK Keep coping with what - China's housing crisis? I'm doing ok, it doesn't affect me much since I don't live there. How about you?

[@deathdrone6988]

It could be interesting if the government takes on Evergrande to be another state entity for building public housing to help with the extreme housing unaffordability.

[@nexusyang4832]

Should watch Asiannometry's video on Evergrande's rise. Very interesting watch.

[@christianlibertarian5488]

China from a macro point of view has hit, and gone past, an inflection point. They have built a tremendous amount of infrastructure in the last three decades, including real estate. That was wonderful, but they have now gone past the point where infrastructure is what is needed. They need to ramp up production of what consumers need and want. That is, China needs to tailor its production to the wants of its people. IMHO, China is ill equipped for this. A state-centric economy has no mechanism for elucidating consumer desires.

[@derpauleglot9772]

You did an awesome job as always :)

[@triarii9257]

The absolute best video on this matter.

[@bunnerkins]

2:51 goddam that chart is striking. That is hardcore dataporn

[@juriteller3688]

As if china will follow a HK ruling. No way they follow through with liquidation.

[@TAS_CNX]

The CCP absolutely might do that, it would likely finish off Hong Kong as a place to do business though. Given the kind of policy decisions that are coming out of Beijing it would not surprise me.

[@awsblacknight6956]

@@TAS_CNX Don't you mean it the other way around? Anyways, HK is rich because it acts as a tradeport for mainland China, and as long as China remains a dominant world power, it won't be going anywhere.

[@BearMeOut]

You all assuming they will hink logically based on presented fact. CCP didn't work like that, how do you think this was allowed to happened in the first place?

[@ZeroHSR]

if you don't have that much reserve, stick to residential complex. That way you only need to finish off the houses that have been purchased/ financed and leave the lot empty (or some foundation) for the ones haven't been purchased. You can't do that on an apartment, because you have to build all the rooms and floors while slowly selling some of the units. It is harder to sell the whole inventory or unit and gather enough cash flow to pay back debt interest and cover 3-4 months' worth of materials. You might get away with delaying the payment to 6 months but still gonna give it a bad look and fewer suppliers will continue to supply.

[@coderider3022]

The receivers will use remaining money for fees etc. customers won’t see a penny

[@gabrieldesantanalacerda]

Thank you for the video, very clarifiying

[@aussieexpat]

Massive supply of housing would be a nice problem to have here in the west....

[@archeyburger4722]

When you started with “ladies and gentlemen” I thought you’d say “we got em” next :D

[@seananstett8749]

Maybe i missed it in this video but could you make a video of which US stocks might be affected by this situation the most

[@standoctor]

Thank you for the FACTUAL reports rather than just "China bashing"

[@TritonTv69420]

I have been waiting for more on the Evergrande story for over a year.

[@richteffekt]

Optimistic about getting balanced and sensible updates on financial topics from you. Pessimistic about much of the rest of the internet.

[@KingUnKaged]

It's wild how China and Canada are on polar opposite ends of a real estate crisis. The former has so much excess property their throwing it away, while the latter has so little that landlords can name their price.

[@thewhitefalcon8539]

Canada should invade China

[@biguattipoptropica]

It’s not as different as it seems. Canada infamously has a lot of speculators, flippers, and mostly empty buildings. It’s combining the Chinese real estate issues with the American real estate issues, as in landlords are price fixing apartments and leaving them empty rather than lower the price. I imagine if the economic downturn continues we’ll see how much of Canadian real estate is attached to money laundering. A professor at one of the prestigious universities here looked into it… and I think he said Vancouver and Toronto real estate markets are potentially above 10% controlled by money laundering…? If you google “canadian real estate market money laundering” it should come up.

[@ChucksSEADnDEAD]

Right. But in most countries people are trying to move to existing economic centers which don't exactly have a surplus of empty lots. In China, they're building in the periphery of existing cities because according to the growth numbers, those construction projects would end up in the middle of expanding economic zones. Because of the risk, in Canada (and most countries) construction is done where the demand is (or will be according to high confidence projects). In China, a lot of construction was done expecting demand to be there much later down the line due to inevitable growth.

[@thewhitefalcon8539]

@@ChucksSEADnDEAD I suppose it's not that crazy. I personally wouldn't want to be the first to move into a new area... but speculators would... so I'd end up paying them exorbitant rent for taking the risk for me... hey that's just capitalism

[@absolutefolly2011]

Cause the Chinese are fleeing china, with their assets and themselves..and going to Canada.

[@shaunmodipane1]

video suggestion: say you have a time machine that takes you 10 years in the past. what would your portfolio look like then to maximize your earnings today. just asking for a friend.

[@nicholasvinen]

Short sell Evergrande?

[@kidShibuya]

Wait Colton has a channel now?

[@awdrifter3394]

Just like some companies change their name like GM got changed to MLQ. They should change their name to Not So Grande.

[@provoidcloak]

@the plain bagel would love a video from you about the analysis of paypal atm. Because fundamentally it seems to be doing extremely well, but the stock price continues to fall

[@magesalmanac6424]

Chinas real estate sector could be an entire college course.

[@Potatobag71]

Badass video! Could you do a video on trust funds?

[@greghelton4668]

Interesting video. However I do think the Video viewed the Chinese economical situation through the isolated real estate lens. The problems are occurring on multiple fronts. Decreases in wages, manufacturing moving out of China, the friction caused China’s covert support of Russia in regards to the Ukrainian war. Seems to me the Chinese government over intervenes in the form of applying too many bandaids and it’s a matter of time before they snap.

[@ElijsDima]

Nothing's gonna snap as long as the government has enough surveillance cameras, military, police, and propagandist media faces to keep the citizens in line.

[@huplim]

Thank you Richard!

[@kennyb3325]

I heard in a radio story this week that China is "suggesting" that regional governments purchase distressed developments to turn them into affordable housing. The article further commented that since the regions that these developments are in were often involved in financing the initial development, it is not clear how effective this strategy will be. I hope you, or someone similarly thoughtful, does an update on the situation Is this plan feasible? How much demand for affordable housing is there? If Russia's economy is growing more tied to China as the war in Ukraine drags on, are there implications there?

[@wongbenyb2679]

As you point out the hk court dont really have jurisdiction over mainland, so this judgement is more or less just posturing for investor to see. As for the assets, likely they'll just be "absorbed" by the Central government

[@TechPeeves]

Can you make a video of your take on Nvidia? Based on research into the company, is it speculative or an investment? thanks and keep up the good work! :)

[@zanychelly]

So, the impact to the regular Joe, or regular Lee, is far bigger than I thought 3:24

[@douglassun8456]

I think Richard is right that this will not have the same global effect as the 2008 crisis. But I also think we should consider that this is not the end of China's real estate debt crisis, but the end of Act I. Evergrande is not different in kind from other Chinese developers, and Country Garden, which is the largest developer, seems to be facing similar problems. Just about all of the big ones had reached the point where they were borrowing and relying on presale income to pay down existing debt. There's a huge number of residential high-rises that have either been demolished or are sitting unfinished because the developer can't afford to finish them.

[@N_g_er]

LEAVE CHINA UPDATE ALONE I LOVE HIS CHANNEL

[@Trevlig]

Can you do a video about Litium investing, it been like a rollercoaster and it is the future so what is happening?

[@johnc2438]

One request: Can we please see more flames in your videos? It adds excitement and tension ("The END!" "It's OVER!" "No More DOLLARS!" -- you get the idea 🤣), which we don't get enough of on KZbin! Truthfully, a nice, calming recap!

[@calebplumleephotography]

Ok, but for real... the wig on the judge in her headshot pic is 😂😂

[@Driving4bangers]

I would like you to upload every sat please and thanks

[@neoneu5702]

It's just baffling how such huge companies can mess up so much

[@brettcyr7426]

It's simple. Traits that cause the largest growth (extreme risk tolerance, leverage, etc) and thus create the largest companies are the exact same things that kill them when economic environments turn.

[@pseudocynic1]

Scale does not equate to the integrity of any business, especially in a communist country where corruption is endemic to politics and therefore the economy. It's all about transparency, China lacks the checks and balances of democratic political systems and capitalist economics.

[@ST-fk3jz]

does anyone know if evergrande owns properties in canada? Or other non-chinese markets

[@catriona_drummond]

A developer finishing one project with money from the next is a massive red flag. It means that the money you originally took for the project was not enough and you are sitting on a loss, likely to runaway build costs. When I worked in banking we had mechanisms to avoid that, which were quite bureaucratic but prevented such problems from ever going big. Of course the problem is here also the systemic fault that the developer could even take the customers money (that was often provided to them by loans) before being finished. That's actually what banks are for, financing developers until the customer pays for the finished building. And banks would have looked at the books I am sure. China has a lot to learn

[@FinEco-ct1yy]

لماذا ليست كأزمة "الاخوة ليمان" لأن عقود الاكتتاب على العقار لم تشهد عمليات إنشاء للمشتقات المالية ما حصر المخاطرة فقط بين عارضي العقار و طالبيه فقط. لكن تأثير هذا الوضع على المدى الطويل سيكون ملحوظا بدءا من تأثيره على عقلية التحوط الصينية من خلال نقلها من التحوط العقاري الى التحوط البنكي و كذا المبني على الاصول المالية و هذا كله في الاخير سيغير هيكل الGDP للدولة و منه طموحاتها الكبرى كطريق الحرير و فعاليتها في تحالف BRICS و مع الاخذ بالاعتبار تغيرات الجيوبولتيك الكبرى الناتجة عن الفشل الغربي-الاسرائيلي في غزة أقول اننا أمام مشهد جديد كلية على أي سيناريو قد خطط له مسبقا.

[@DavidPerez-ic1vx]

great work , very interesting :)

[@HarmanContinental]

11:47 Within cells interlinked

[@stvjjgcj]

So no Evergrande EV coming?

[@ianokan9120]

9:40 So they are able to sell the apartments they build, then how are they bankrupt?

[@skyn3817]

Because they're not built yet, so that's debt owed to the buyer

[@BladeTheWatcher]

Don't know why there are even talks about this. Evergrande is in the hands of CCP management for a year. This means: in China, they do with Evergande what they please. Those properties and assets are in China and Hong Kong - which is also China now. So, nobody liquidates anything unless the CCP allows it, or they will be liquidated real quick themselves. So, what is happening is that foreign investors lose all their money - which is the same as we have expected a year ago. Not fair, yeah, but they have taken this risk when they wanted to profit on the insane Chinese housing boom. It was evident even 10 years ago that it will end some time, and it will end like this.

[@jazzmunkyy]

Why no lazor eyes and "ITS OVER, CHINA IS FINISHED" title?

[@XiaojunMa]

"Gonna be quick" and I peeked at the video time.😂

[@samvanriel6168]

Perhaps a stupid question from a complete layman: was the 3 red lines policy implemented from 1 day to another, or did the market get advanced warnings in order to prepare? And if not, would it have mattered if they would have got (more) time?

[@williamlouie569]

The three red lines was an after thought when CCP realized, too late, that the real estate market is out of control.

[@robinspanier7017]

9:03 the real estate bubble there is just a laughing stock. imagine speculating on a "safe investment" which is actually a non livable appartment in a ghost city starting to fall apart after the sale

[@andrepacheco6067]

Here is the question everybody should ask. What idiots would buy anything from Evergrande? Did you know that there are unfinished buildings and a lot of Chinese gave money for these apts?

[@reformerx667]

Lets see how long before banks start showing cracks once Evergrande folds. I can think of one - HSBC! What is their exposure?

[@quippy8402]

This is how capitalism is supposed to work.. instead of doing bailouts. In fact, doing bailouts usually implies that there are some systematic issues.

[@kiloftd]

Thanks for being rational as always

[@codycast]

Not sure how this guy ended up in my feed, but how do you come up with the name “plain bagel” for a finance channel?

[@CrimsonShaft]

Is it “royters” or “rooters”?

[@ralexander9495]

No worries - real estate always goes up...wait, if that's true, why is there a thing called a 'short sale'?

[@DeanMarko-ex3rd]

I feel bad for the the Chinese who saved money for a generation and ended up losing their house because of a stupid corporation

[@braintrust12]

my favorite thing about this channel is that the thumbnails don't feature some guy making a CRAZY FACE at me. Nope. Just the plain ole Plain Bagel guy lookin at me like "sup... I've got a new video." For the first time on youtube, I feel like a thumbnail isn't insulting my intelligence.