'Everything Bubble' Creating Dangerous Markets with Grant Williams

Interview recorded - 15th of December, 2023
On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of welcoming back Grant Williams for a third time!.
During our conversation we spoke about what Grant is seeing in markets, whether the FED are hedging their bets, have they vanquished inflation, what is happening with gold, the everything bubble, politics and more. Hope you enjoy!
0:00 - Introduction
0:23 - Grants opinion on Macro?
2:32 - FED Hedging bets?
4:35 - Strong conviction until you don’t
5:42 - Investors shaped by good times
7:50 - FED reaction time has reduced
8:40 - Risk they could lose more credibility?
12:20 - Became well know after going off Gold Standard
14:55 - Inflation
16:50 - Similarities to Greenspan cutting in 1990’s?
19:20 - What is Grant seeing with Gold?
23:19 - Investors diversifying with gold?
24:30 - Risk of consensus?
26:55 - How does Grant look at risk?
31:04 - All assets are going up
32:10 - Trump vs Biden in 2024?
36:26 - More controversary & polarisation around the world
38:25 - Inflation amplifying issues since 2008
41:50 - Social unrest in the 70’s?
42:30 - How will wealth be diverted?
45:50 - Taxing unrealised gains
48:41 - One message to takeaway from our conversation?
Grant Williams, much to his dismay, has logged over 35 years in finance. During that time, he’s lived and worked in seven major financial centres from London to Sydney, building the kind of network that many others can only dream about.
He began his career in the Japanese equity market in the mid-1980s, before a three-year posting to Tokyo ensured he had a ringside seat as the twin bubbles in equities and real estate burst simultaneously and spectacularly at the end of 1989. After a short stint back in London, Grant relocated once again, this time to New York, where he spent 7 years. Subsequent postings have taken him to Hong Kong, Sydney, Singapore, and the Cayman Islands.
Currently, he is a senior advisor to Matterhorn Asset Management AG goldswitzerland.com/ in Switzerland, and a portfolio and strategy advisor to Vulpes Investment Management www.vulpesinvest.com/ in Singapore.
Back in 2014, Grant’s ambition to bring the most intelligent, engaging, and original people in finance to a wider audience led him to co-found Real Vision www.realvision.com/, an on-demand internet-based financial media platform.
Grant’s twin Real Vision interview series, 'In Conversation With…' and 'On The Road' raised the bar for financial content - engaging and educating viewers in equal measure and helping them learn the secrets behind a group of extraordinary investors’ success.
Long before Real Vision, however, Grant was guiding people around the fringes of finance with his regular newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… www.grant-williams.com/ttmygh..., a publication which, from humble beginnings as a daily note to a few friends and colleagues, has grown into one of the most widely-read financial publications in the world.
Grant Williams -
Website - www.grant-williams.com/
Twitter - / ttmygh
WTFinance -
Instagram - / wtfinancee
Spotify - open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG...
TikTok - vm.tiktok.com/ZMeUjj9xV/
iTunes - podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast...
Linkedin - / anthony-fatseas-761066103
Twitter - / anthonyfatseas
Thumbnail Picture from - finbold.com/stock-market-to-c...

[@WTFinancepodcast]

How risky do you think the current markets are?

[@saltydog1196]

Global economic collapse 😮

[@joannahuc1318]

Extremely

[@JakeWang-lt2fg]

no risk at all. SP500 target is 8000 next year end.

[@niklas4031]

@@JakeWang-lt2fgfor sure

[@valentinaarrelaro]

Is the stock market actually getting better or could this be the regular end of year market manipulation to entice new investors? I'm currently sitting on 500k inheritance and just wondering what better assets than stocks to invest in right now

[@heatherholdings]

you need a certified financial planner straight up! personally, I would invest in etf and also love investing in individual stocks. yes it’s riskier but am comfortable in my financial environment

[@brooms4142]

that's a double up in two years! seeing a lot of news on the rally, investors will make tons of profit with the right picks. would you mind disclosing info of this person guiding you pleas? my problem is I do not trust my guts in today's mkt

[@HaroldsTKO]

I find this informative, curiously explored Theresa Leigh Detrick on the web, spotted her consulting page, and was able to schedule a call session with her, she shows quite a great deal of expertise from her resume.. very much appreciated

[@joannahuc1318]

Mr. Williams certainly has been around the block. This is a very dangerous environment that we are in. Great interview with a very knowledgeable guest.

[@kingcountyband]

If anyone doesn’t know who Grant is that’s ok but stay tuned he’s an absolute gem in finance, honest, very bright, superb understanding of global markets and financial policy, we’ll spoken etc Listen closely!

[@motorxplorer]

Grant has the broadest open minded perspective. Top interview 👌 thanks guys

[@carlsagasser2525]

Superb. Many investors have not lived through an extended duration period of a flat SM. That is not my scenario as I think we have either topped or about to in the next 6 months for a very long period of time. A bottom won't be formed for years with, ultimately, a 60 - 70% haircut.

[@bryanemerzian9478]

Great interview. Guy nails it rich are laughing in our faces as most struggle

[@WTFinancepodcast]

They have definitely benefited from the current situation for decades, will do whatever they can to keep the same system as it is

[@FerallHog]

This Man is very Wise.

[@WTFinancepodcast]

Agreed! Thanks for watching

[@robwindridge7804]

Well done , you got one of the best on . Love to listen to Grants thoughts above many others.

[@lancehardy5808]

Anthony Fatseas great interview with Grant Williams .... Learned a lot... Very difficult times to invest..... From British Columbia, Canada.... Thank You...

[@peggyharris3815]

Where's the pain when debt is written off and forgiven? The pain exists with those who have been responsible!

[@WTFinancepodcast]

The pain is those who own the debt i.e. the government, unless they make the universities take a hit?

[@JohnTaylor-ts8wk]

Interesting interview. I always like hearing from Grant Williams. It’s funny how different his monetary view and his read on the Fed is from mine though. I think that Fed “credibility” is a false narrative, always has been, and most people still don’t follow the Fed meetings or incorporate them into their expectations. In addition, expectations driven inflation is totally bunk, it can lead to temporary overstocking only (no one stocks up forever), and consumer inflation is driven by simple supply and demand. Excess money boosts demand, and supply can be hit by real-world shortages, bottlenecks, and the speed of real-world expansion projects. It’s important to keep an open mind on these things anyways, and there is much I agree with Grant on; I’ve been overweight gold miners for long enough to be significantly down on the position and I’m still holding. There are reasons for gold to rise aside from excess money supply, like geopolitical tensions, and the mining stocks are crazy low in relation to the metal.

[@alkpmg]

Great interview. some brilliant perspectives from Grant

[@DjmMik]

Excellent interview! Merry Christmas 🎄

[@WTFinancepodcast]

Thank you very much! Merry Christmas to yourself and hope you had a great break.

[@andrewhoover4641]

Great perspective,flexibility is the key. Maintain liquidity, be ready to turn on a dime, and don’t dig in on any one thesis….

[@TommyT236]

Lehman happened but AIG nailed the coffin. Took 45 days after Lehman for Vix to hit 89. Was 18 in August of 08’. March 6th of 09’ was the low. QE was introduced. SPY was 67. How can you not forget?

[@bpb5541]

Exactly. Problem is FOMO and humans only really remember what happened in the last 2 weeks let alone 15 years ago. This is at their own peril. The great bubbles pop spectacularly. We are in the bubble of all bubble. A one month T bill at 4.5% looks just fine.

[@TommyT236]

@@bpb5541 Imagine how the Tic Tock generation will deal with this. Can’t even focus for more than a few minutes. Mortgage rates at 7-9% were the normal years ago. Powell will never get to 2%. 4% is the new 2%.

[@detectiveofmoneypolitics]

Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still watching this very informative content cheers Frank 😊

[@specialist-in-tech]

Costco sold $100 million worth of gold bars. Well above spot in only one quarter. Think about that. They sell out within days once listed on line. The general population would buy way more gold if more big name places like Costco sold it, instead of local coin shops or these on line venues.

[@miguelmachado3259]

Last thought ... and this one goes to Grant (whom I respect from highest quality podcasts) ... this is not the 90's and those are not repeatable. A "Neo-Victorian" geopolitical & geoeconomics view prevails in Grant's idealism. Grant's among my favourites in Macro and Societal views but seems to miss the right understanding on how irrepeatable the 90's will prove to have been.

[@JorgeOrpinel]

The 4th turning is just a hypothesis. Also, if you don't see leaders "anywhere in the world", then your world is kind of small. Mexico, Colombia, and Brasil have pragmatic leaders , for example.

[@bpb5541]

True yet none of that matters... almost everyone runs off the US dollar. Where we go ... so does the rest of the world. This is why contries are deleveraging from the US Dollar. There are a lot of countries that are taking about using commodities instead of the US dollar to back trades. Should this happen in mass America is in very real trouble. I hope the 4th turning is true because we certainly need new leadership to come in and get rid of all these crooks... both sides of the isle. I am a Gen X... The boomers ruined me and my generation in wanting to get involved in politics so the younger generation is gonna have to do it. This is why we see such a mess. Boomers screwed everything up, Gen X doesn't even want to deal with the mess, and the new generations are just starting to come of age. I hope they can save us. If not the world in 20 years looks vastly different.

[@JohnDaniels]

"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless" -Thomas Jefferson

[@WTFinancepodcast]

Seems to be the trend we are currently seeing with Blackrock

[@JohnDaniels]

@@WTFinancepodcast 100% 👍🏻

[@deseosuho]

So, the leading economy is indisputably in a state of contraction. Look at freight. Look at LEI index. Look at Manufacturing PMI. Ask yourself, what are the odds that this bottoms in a soft landing (unemployment never goes above 4.5%, equities never re-test their 2022 lows), vs a typical recession (Unemployment goes up by 4-6% and equities correct by 25-50%). It seems to me like the hard landing, typical recession scenario is 80-90% likely. If you think it's lower, tell me why you think so.

[@soundsnags2001]

I do not like this threat to the housing market, but it is credible. Wondering what real estate investors can do to mitigate that risk.

[@goldismoney5899]

FED bankers need to go to prison for what they have done. Gold is money.

[@MrTinaTullos]

Vivek Ramaswamy has my vote. Could be the common sense leader the US needs for big change.

[@normandolinic2044]

Why doesn’t everyone expect higher prices ,when you have the federal reserve said they are trying to be at 2% ,in a 10 year time isn’t that min. 20% on the dollar ,gas now at $3.20 mean $3.80 min. More trillion??

[@WhosMolly]

Good Interview. Common Sense - don't hear a whole of that these days.

[@WTFinancepodcast]

That is the issue, not enough balanced views. Thanks for watching

[@haldriver1378]

Shiller PE is over TWICE the median at this moment. Maybe I'm an idiot sitting on a pile of TBills but so be it. Check the buffet ratio or whatever metric you like. This is a dangerous market.

[@postscript5549]

I agree that the Federal Reserve made a terrible mistake in announcing 3 future rate cuts!! It is CONTRARY to the inflation message. Perhaps they are considering the delay (9 mos.?) in manifesting the higher rates.

[@bpb5541]

Yellen is evil. People have no idea. Powell is not going to make it through next year. He will resign at some point. When he does you know that officially the wheels have come off the bus. He is trying his best to thread a needle but Congress and Yellen are going to punch him in the face and will come back in with QE. Powell will want no part of it. Once all this goes down we are going to experience hyperinflation and possibly civl war. If not that certainly social unrest.

[@postscript5549]

Unbelievably, many Stock Brokers had a superficial and/or skewed understanding of the Federal Reserve for decades.

[@firefighterps2]

I've been hoping for a take on current events from Mr Williams

[@guy7018]

Once the fomo gamblers have been wiped out we might see a real correction and get near a bottom . I've been waiting many years for this and am ready!

[@bpb5541]

Same my friend. I am not only expecting that ... I am super short and should profit nicely from the crash. I will say I have had to wait much longer than I would have thought but patience is key.

[@Kristofur77]

Nasdaq down 35% last along with S&P heavily hit

[@WTFinancepodcast]

Is that what you’re seeing for next year?

[@Kristofur77]

Wouldn't be surprised if it was down because it's now even for the last 2 years, possibly not 35% though.

[@lancemairs4956]

I see a leader. I see someone smart enough. I see someone with unimpeachable integrity. I see Vivek Ramiswamy!

[@marcopolotimetraveller]

Grant is right about housing prices. We needa 50% cut. The alternatives are too painful. But will the elite allow the value of their properties to be cut in half?

[@WTFinancepodcast]

Will prices drop that much? Even in 2008 they only fell about 15-20% in certain areas and bounced back quite quickly.

[@marcopolotimetraveller]

@@WTFinancepodcast how much did they drop during the Great Depression? 80-90% +

[@HighlanderGeoff]

It's "versus", not "verse".

[@philfortner1805]

It's the roaring 20's fellas! When the meltup fizzles due to inflation crushing gains everyone tries to sell and find no buyers. Then government buys the trades with printed money and hyperinflation ends the currency.

[@user-js4iv3lz1i]

Which currency

[@mattg8431]

Parabolic moves have became a normality, no fear of chasing, this is dangerous market

[@WTFinancepodcast]

Things have definitely been moving quicker both up and down

[@thierry-le-frippon]

Bubbles just come after one another... Nothing burst... It can take another 20 years before this happens...

[@bpb5541]

Then again we might get a massive crash next year. The real question is are you ready for both outcomes?

[@josephcohen9480]

3 day work week? What are you talking about... never heard of that

[@WTFinancepodcast]

In the U.K. in 1974 due to the coal strikes there wasn’t enough electricity. The government brought in a law where commercial enterprises were allocated 3 days a week they could function. Lasted for about 3 months, but was disastrous.

[@TREMVan]

I'm kind of a mini gold bug. I got a good position but to me it's just also been like a waste of my money and time. I never really have to sell my position so part of my position is to stick it to the state. Anyways, it'll be interesting to see what happens to precious metals over the next 10 years...

[@saltydog1196]

Gold is strong because the ponzi is imploding 😮

[@WTFinancepodcast]

Do you see it becoming stronger in the near term?

[@longgowhereto]

We might see 2b less people within the next years. Less people will have to carry the consequences of the ev. bubble. Optimism? Is this not a thing, which makes you go hmm?

[@WTFinancepodcast]

Why would we see less people?

[@stage274]

All I know rates broke out from their 40 year bear market: they will try to bring rates back. But the market will reject it eventually, and rates will make a new high after this pull back to the break out trend line.

[@Me-np8fb]

Hello, I'm trying to understand this premature and unwarranted narrative that the 10 year Treasury will go down in 2024 when logic dictates it goes above 5%. I'm a senior that wanted to lock in that long term 5%- do you think that will happen in early 2024 or is this made up talk of rate cuts real? It's all confusing and seems like a scam.

[@stage274]

@@Me-np8fb Usually all break outs, re test the break out line. I think it will be short lived.

[@Me-np8fb]

​@@stage274 Thanks for responding. I'm new at this. Not sure what a break out is. Do you think the 10 year Treasury will go to 5% in early 2024?

[@stage274]

@@Me-np8fb Yes, but they will try to lower rates first. If they try, I believe the market will reject such low yields and the rates will not only go higher but much much higher.

[@bpb5541]

All of you are spot on. The 10 year yield is pulling back but it has broken out of a down trend on a weekly / monthly chart. Should it, and I think it will, go back over 5% the bubbles pop. That down trend in yeilds has been in place for a very long time. This means that debt for the big boys and girls is going to go up and most likely keep going up. People do not know how to act when it goes up. The October drawdown was caused by the 10 year going above 5%. Everyone is used to free or almost free money. That has ended. This is where most people have it wrong and they are walking to the edge of the cliff. Markets revert to the mean... ALWAYS. This crash could be spectacular.

[@MrTinaTullos]

Vivek Ramaswamy may be the leader we are looking for in the US for common sense big change.

[@ask_why000]

Absolutely not.

[@bridgettmayeux6222]

We do have strong leaders who can guide us in the 4th turning! DR SHIVA 2024

[@user-oq8gz9gi9h]

The problem problematic is the government administration Inherited bureaucratic are not up to the factors the inline problems full stop stop And military industry has taken of foreign policy political short sighted divorce reality bias propagate arrogance Jew boning Treasure staginflation policy political

[@xyz123yyz]

lol....

[@peterbedford2610]

"Everything bubble" or the inevitable and accelerating decline of the currencies purchasing power?

[@shanedavison7473]

A wealth tax on houses would result in everyone listing their houses for sale. Rich people would simply flee the country and the working class would be homeless.

[@bpb5541]

Look the government's debt is way to high. Tax Revenue is going down. Taxes have got to go up or the US Government defaults or devalues the US dollar so much it goes almost worthless. That is the situtation we are in now. The scary thing is that when we go into a recession, tax revenue will go down even more and just when the US government will need to use its balance sheet to help the economy pull out of a dive. If they just come in and do QE the dollar is going to crash the short end of the curve will crash and the long end will rise. This is the real risk and should play out in the next few years. We will know soon enough. IMO it is gonna get very bad before it gets better regardless of the drunk stoned stock market and real estate market. If the rich want to leave because they don't want to pay more taxes on the 90% of the money in the system that they own. Great let them, good riddance. Rich people have to do their part to take care of the people (middle class) that got them rich in the first damn place. If that means paying much more on their money to keep the system alive, then so be it. I have told my wife for years that greed will cause the greatest government on the face of the earth to fall. I think we have a front row seat to this clow shown.

[@joachimlindback]

Tech stocks and Bitcoin is only keeping up with the real inflation. The "bubble" is the dollar value going to 0.

[@TangoBinAlsheed]

THE FED HAS RESTORED MY FAITH & TRUST IN GOV'T!

[@kirstinstrand6292]

Only a managed market in addition to unconscious, out of touch, FOMO traders and investors will continue to inflate these markets.

[@TangoBinAlsheed]

God Bless Jerome Burns! BTFD

[@georgeholloway3981]

Biden's doing superbly on foreign affairs, and on the IRS. Good stuff there. Shame he's a terrible speaker.

[@WTFinancepodcast]

Not sure about the foreign affairs part, the most conflicts in history in 2023, deterioration of US image globally (for example Afghanistan exit & Saudi Arabia tensions)