The Most Misunderstood Bull Market Ever | Jim Paulsen

[@MonteRosa849]

Jim Paulsen is a great and above all a truly humble human being! And he’s been much more right than wrong over the decades! Thank you Jim for your great advice!

[@ExcessReturns]

Jim is awesome! We hope to have him on again.

[@everceen]

Overall, most traders think the year end would favor stocks, and other equity-based investments over cash-like investments. I’m only looking for opportunities in the market that yields huge profits and hedge against inflation.

[@KaitlynDeve]

Bitcoin through 2025 and look for stocks that have paid for decades without cutting their dividends even during economy crisis

[@fromthebirchwood]

imho, speaking to a certified market strategist/advisor can be more helpful than harmful at this point in time

[@iam_maryanne]

The issue is people have the "I will do it myself mentality" but not equipped enough for a crash. Ideally, advisors are the reps for investing jobs, and at first-hand experience, my portfolio has yielded over 300% since covid-outbreak to date, summing up nearly $1m.

[@Johnny-se8hk]

@@iam_maryanne truly appreciate the implementation of ideas and strategies that result to unmeasurable progress, thus the search for a reputable advisor, mind sharing info of this person guiding you please?

[@iam_maryanne]

Karen Lynne Chess is the licensed FA I use. Just google the name. You’d find necessary details to work with and set up an appointment. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did.

[@asktodd2000]

I love Jim Paulsen! I miss seeing him on CNBC and his good natured midwestern bantering with Joe Kernin.

[@ExcessReturns]

We do too! We were really excited when he agreed to come on.

[@davidkim8133]

Jim is one of the best out there!

[@Wemdiculous]

“This time is different”

[@bpb5541]

Until it's not 😂

[@larsnystrom6698]

It's certainly different this time! Every indicator screams "recession", but the US stock market goes vertically up! The PE is twice the historical mean. The Buffett Indicator tells us that the stock market is twice the GDP. The government debt is $36 Trillion and the deficit spending is out of control. The job market seems to out of wack, but the statistics tries to hide it. The credit card debt and defaults are showing frighteningly things. The US economy is an interesting phenomenon. We certainly live in interesting times!

[@bpb5541]

@ do not go long here at these levels... that IMHO would be a mistake. the market is going to correct. We don't know when of course but the risks are very high. and human emotions have not changed... so the indicators will still work they are just pumping up the last bit of air into all the bubbles.

[@deepfriedokra]

@@bpb5541they’ve been saying this for years now. The simple truth to me is we have never had this level of investor retardation and widespread rigging by the government and the Fed and normalizing of companies not having to be profitable ever before. People just keep saying what you’re saying “the indicators work” like a religious mantra they want to believe so badly but I’m not so sure now

[@michaelswami]

That was fantastic. Thank you.

[@ExcessReturns]

Thank you for watching!

[@kaf2303]

Paul brings up some interesting observations, personally the last 4 years have treated me very well, after Watching this and reading the comments just confirms the old saying about opinions.

[@bryonseverns5919]

Euphoria is a risk. Once you have it, you want more, so you sell good stocks and chase momentum until it crashes. Then you get scared and everything crashes. It happened with SMCI, MSTR, and next the market.

[@RoryVanucchi]

Good discussion and points. Hard to predict tomorrow

[@ExcessReturns]

Thank you!

[@jmcmob608]

Thank you very much...

[@kscopes1]

Jim came to my attention about 4 or 5 yrs ago on CNBC. After not too long I noticed that his macro calls on the market proved correct way more times than all the others. He was must watch during those years and I hasn't steered me wrong even once! I'm subscribed to his substack and data and charts he throws out are super educational and enlightening. He's the best!

[@ExcessReturns]

We agree! Jim is awesome!

[@DeepValue47]

Great video.

[@ExcessReturns]

Thank you!

[@jerrfin699]

Fantastic video - much appreciated guys. New subscriber.

[@ExcessReturns]

Thank you!

[@madhuvijai6089]

super super cool level headed person.....great guy👌👌👌

[@peterbedford2610]

Yes! He's hitting on a very important aspect of a bull market....it keeps rising despite traditional indicators being contrary.

[@bpb5541]

Not for too much longer. Be careful.

[@webentwicklungmitrobinspan6935]

everyone seems to say that it will.not last any longer.. so it will definitly last longer

[@bpb5541]

@I am shorting more and more the higher we go from here. When it does go. It is going to be brutal. A 3 to 5 year bear market. SPY will lose at least 50%, NASDAQ and Russell 2k at least 75% but probably closer to 90%. All the forward indicators still work (all of them are flashing red) the buisness cycle still works. This is exactly how people act at market tops and folks are greedy and are at great risk and its going to make me very rich. I worry for people. It keeps me up at night. I know what is coming. But that does not stop me from taking their money. After all while I have been short they have been taking mine. We have to have both side (a buyer and a seller) to have a market. I just think 95% of all the people in the market are lucky not skilled and they are about to realize that real fast. They are not going to know what to do. They are going to think "time in the market" not "timing the market" because they are ignorant haven't studied at all and have no idea what the hell money managment, and stop loss orders are. It is going to be their downfall. Those 401k / IRAs they are about to get wiped out. Those houses that went up by double are going to lose more than half. Gold is going to get cut in half. BTC goes to a million but it goes below $15k first. This is what is coming. And folks just want to keep going long to get what another 10%... its insane to me. But hey WTF do I know. Trump and Elon could fix everything and I lose all my money. I a super willing to take that bet any day of the week. They are smart but they are not smart on this stuff and the whole world is gonna pay. That said Harris wouldn't have done much better. What comes next is inevitable... caused by 40 years of the very bad decisions. Now we pay for the sins of the father.

[@claashielscher7967]

Remarkable guest! Valuable insights...

[@ExcessReturns]

Thank you!

[@Meowmeow.age.6]

If USA doesn't get the debt under control there is a special kind of a depression called hyperinflation.

[@tobybrown1179]

Undoubtedly correct, but it’s the whole west.. not just USA Get ready for total enslavement all the while saying to yourself, I am free..

[@nightshiftblues]

Thoroughly enjoyable watch. Thanks guys.

[@ExcessReturns]

Thank you!

[@peterruh60]

I like the discussion of valuation towards the end. Jim remarked how post 1990, his profit productivity index rose significantly and that may caused rerating of stocks. I would argue two things. Stocks since 1990s contain an element of “monetary premium” or store of value as the explosion of monetary base post 1971 became evident in asset prices. Stocks are the new gold. Bitcoin will slowly suck out this monetary premium function of stocks and valuations will decline to historical 7-18 Pe Also post 1971 (Nixon break from gold) productivity accrued to capital hoarders vs labor) Perot support reflected this effect in 1992 and Trump now reflects the blue collar disgust with not reaping more of the productivity miracle. Jim is the best. Thanks for hosting him.

[@Ryan_Tinney]

Excellent discussion guys.

[@ExcessReturns]

Thank you!

[@jameskeefe1761]

The one that has been right most of the time is yield curves, we are still in the zone where the yield curve cannot be declared failed. Recessions start within about 6 months of uninversion, right now we are at month 3. So we've got until about March until we can declare yield curve failure.

[@drew9312]

Excellent interview and guest. However way too many ads. Less ads like other channels would be better.

[@arandmorgan]

Could it be that market investors might have a vested interest in encouraging debt into the system? The more the debt, the cheaper the dollar, the cheaper the dollar the greater asset values become. Who has assets, shareholders.

[@sethmiller5414]

" I havent seen animal spirits..." Have you looked at the moves and volatility around BTC, MSTR, NVDA anyone who mentions AI......?

[@JoyDiv757]

Great guest!❤

[@ExcessReturns]

Thank you! Jim is awesome.

[@bdek68]

Jim Paulson!!!! This time is not different and you can keep pumping the market even higher as it’s already the second most expensive off all time. All on multiple expansion and AI hopium. Smart money/ insiders are selling and you tell retail to buy?

[@bpb5541]

Retail is the dumb money. The smart money needs liquidity to sell too. Smart people are not buying these ATH we get every week... they are selling into them.

[@Stashley78]

This video desperately needs charts and calculations to cite and visualize what this man is saying. Thanks for considering my suggestion. Happy Thanksgiving! 🦃

[@Mantraflip]

Jim had great charts back in the day. I’ve been listening to him at every opportunity for 12-15 years.

[@Stashley78]

@@Mantraflip Can we find charts for the topics covered on this video? It would be very helpful if Excess Returns added visuals. It would really help their channel. Also let them make clips for YT Shorts and to post across other media.

[@nitroneonicman]

This was the longest yield curve inversion in history, I wouldn't count your chickens just yet

[@alphafox400]

No recession according to whom and on which planet? Low household debt? Household liquidity way up and corporate liquidity not far behind? Perhaps no recession for the political and Wall Street financial class, but everyone else (including corporations) has seen stagnating income and skyrocketing costs. What I see is that we have been in a depression since 2008 (real GDP is still way below trend). The stock market can remain in a bull market, mind you, if only because of the lack of any semblance of fiscal restraint on the part of the Feds. Eventually the economy will drag the indicators down to recession levels no matter how much the Feds goose the “data.”

[@westnash]

Great interview....too many commercials.

[@thetjt]

Breathless bull, thinks this time it's different and US stock market high valuations are forever because US companies are so exceptional.

[@oliverj9256]

That would go against the entire stock market history, a ridiculous notion

[@j.k.cascade2057]

Well, as a matter of fact "this time" apparently is different for the last 3 years or so, all of that time people have been predicting a recession is right around the corner. Im sure it will happen eventually, but it hasn't yet.

[@user-bv4px3rt8k]

They had to change the definition of recession to get no recession lol

[@baarbacoa]

Where did you get that idea?

[@Sniffl3s-fl]

@@baarbacoait has always been 2 quarters of negative growth We’ve hit that twice in the last 4 years Yellen “clarified that 2 quarters doesn’t mean recession without joblessness

[@baarbacoa]

@Sniffl3s-fl The US hasn't had even one quarter of negative economic growth since Q1-Q2 of 2020. And that was due to the pandemic.

[@MosesKim-je5rj]

There is a big danger in rounding up a 17-18 year bull market to 20 years. That means you would have been maximum bullish in 1999 and 2000. We’re almost 16 years into this bull market…

[@bpb5541]

Agree. I think people are crazy to think we will add many more years to this... the longest bull market in history. But hey... that is exactly how bull markets end.

[@bpb5541]

Of course not. The indicators still work. People will see soon enough.

[@dmitriguzhel9515]

What a stupid statement: “to make money borrow money. And if you lose there’s nothing for you to lose”. My 6-year old daughter knows better than your guest:)

[@arandmorgan]

They don't lose, people who earn wages lose.

[@j.k.cascade2057]

Dmitri: that is not what he was saying.

[@barrywagoner5191]

Not true... look at credit spreads.

[@martinross6416]

Explain?

[@peters972]

The Fed has no discretionary power. Powell is powerful in as much as he is like the proverbial lighthouse arguing with the battleship admiral as to who will give way. The Fed optimizes price stability for optimal employment (ideally). You would not ask for a bridge to be designed by a popular candidate, you’d want an engineer. Monetary control must never be done by popular vote, it should be done by a bank cartel who understands money and yield better. The world would be a better place with an honest global reserve bank that rendered a constant value dollar based on something like population size.

[@Long_Tail_of_Finance]

economy is transitioning out of goods and back into services/experiences. stands to reason that services sector inflation will be sticky, especially post covid where service worker bargaining power has gone up.

[@marcussurleyadventures1928]

What about the Ukraine war? Did that have any influence on inflation?

[@bluesky2145]

Saying that the Fed has become political because they do more press conferences is a ridiculous leap. Also tell me that productivity is going to go down without telling me that you're going to deport lots of workers and that's why it's going to go down. Also once the tariffs kick in and launch inflation closer to double digits don't forget to tell us what the cause of inflation is which I'm sure it's due to something other than the tariffs of course.

[@jtrealfunny]

This guy is excellent. One think that seems increasingly important is the number of people who are really or completely disenchanted with the system. Trumps victory is one indication of this. I recently heard that 60% of US workers are hourly workers; is that our american dream? And interesting he's not apparently that worried about de-dollarization of fiscal dominance.

[@EttoreVarotto]

the society will collapse before the stock market

[@Gr8thxAlot]

Fascinating discussion. All the "experts" have been wrong for years on this. It's continued justification for index funds and staying the course, as it's paid off handsomely. I do wonder how and when this party will end. (Nobody knows, and nobody will predict it.)

[@tobybrown1179]

Crack up booms don’t end well , fullstop

[@motley331]

B.S. ! Money printing and market manipulation. There's your bull market.

[@superalexandre8450]

Absolutely - there is no "Market" there is only FED. Printing enormous amounts of confetti.

[@alb.1911]

You obviously have no idea of what you’re talking about. I have been buying undervalued stocks during the last 4 years and outperformed all those Wall Street donkeys that try to time and outsmart the market. My portfolio was Up 100% in 2023 after the crash and this year is +75%.

[@edgibbs3229]

That’s a ridiculous statement.

[@dabomboo7o]

M2 money supply is only metric that matters. Government spending, and buybacks.

[@Austin6403]

Life be hard with your simple black/white thinking

[@cas343]

"Let me start with the question about whether the strength in the incoming data casts doubt on our estimates of the restraining effects of financial turbulence. *There can be little denying that, almost across the board, the readings on economic activity have been stronger than our expectations in September*. In terms of domestic spending, the largest upside surprises have been in consumer spending, and much of the upward revision reflects data on activity after the financial turbulence had already begun." Meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on October 30-31, 2007 "Overall, our forecast could admittedly be read as still painting a pretty benign picture: Despite all the financial turmoil, * the economy avoids recession * and, even with steeply higher prices for food and energy and a lower exchange value of the dollar, we achieve some modest edging-off of inflation." Meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on December 11, 2007

[@pandnh4]

Did he have a stroke at 08:45?

[@pandnh4]

You and ours emotions of feed and greer....uh, greive.... that still drys what happels

[@jaym9846]

Except Buffet. He is now old and doesn't know how strong and resilient the economy is.

[@toinengwyn3935]

Same was said of him back in ‘99 and ‘07. Boy did he clean up afterwards.

[@EWTEWBEWSER1]

Has this guy heard of m2 money supply?

[@KeanuReeves-c8r]

Just look at the 10yr minus 2yr yield curve and the unemployment rate chart. Recession will be called next year.

[@adamm2716]

lolol

[@togoni]

Bla, bla, bla, bla....

[@bluesky2145]

Regarding the price to earnings ratios being so high, is it possible that these high prices that are now way above the 7 to 21 range are simply reflecting very high inflation by charging a high price? In other words they're high price for their stock is simply reflecting the high cost of inflation and the high amount of liquidity out there.

[@Klaus__567]

Hit $165k today. I'm really grateful for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started with 14k in January

[@REYNOLDS566]

How please

[@REYNOLDS566]

I've been investing in Bitcoin by myself. I'm not really happy with what's going on, just few weeks ago I lost about $7,000 in a particular trade. Can you help me out or at least advise me on what to do?

[@Klaus__567]

I will advise you stop trading on your own if you keep losing. And i don't trade on my own anymore, I always required help and assistance

[@Klaus__567]

She's my family personal Broker and also a Broker to many families here in the United states, she is a licensed Broker.

[@KyrianJames-p1g]

😱Sounds familiar, I have heard her names on several occasions.. And both her success stories on wall street journey!

[@ericmodernel9205]

Nice guy but clueless.. It's because he is part of the 1% percent... talk to the normal person with a normal job.

[@arandmorgan]

Exactly. We are being divided into asset holders and wage earners. The wage earners are being destroyed. The asset owners are clueless as to why we are so angry.

[@Ryan_Tinney]

There is definitely a disconnect from the wall street guy to the common American.

[@reddune6185]

Out here in the lower class, it’s not well. The election pretty much sums it up.

[@tobybrown1179]

Trump’s in there for a reason, steal the last of your wealth for his rich mates. Time may prove me wrong

[@webentwicklungmitrobinspan6935]

why are you even watching if you are not close to the 1%