EXCLUSIVE: TESLA Uber Bull Reveals Shocking New Prediction

[@BrighterwithHerbert]

Buying a Tesla? Use my referral link and get $2,000 off. ts.la/herbert23392 ts.la/amanda443323 Pls subscribe to help me to get to 100k subs? It’s easy to do but goes a long way to help me and the channel. Thank you!

[@keithgilbert835]

4000 TSLA shares and counting.

[@conniefoott]

Me too.

[@nicholasepiscopo1235]

Warren got me started on investing in Tesla in June 2020 I’m up 500% and added a lot since. Thanks Warren for opening my eyes.

[@LJ-jq8og]

I upgraded to a Model X because of Warren 😊

[@deadloq1882]

Wow that's awesome!! I just got started right before the election.

[@Utubesnightmare]

I invested around same time but only up100% because I "diversified ", what a huge mistake

[@restonthewind]

@@Utubesnightmare Hindsight is 20/20. You could have bought NVIDIA in 2020 too. Everyone's a financial genius five years after the fact.

[@LJ-jq8og]

@@Utubesnightmare Diversification is RARELY a "mistake".... Notwithstanding my 10% plus investment in Tesla low-cost ETFs or mutual funds are the only ay to go ! So dont view it as a mistake.... Lack of diversification is the greatest mistake people make !!!!!

[@hkinsight153]

Demand for having multiple cars per each household may go down dramatically

[@HowardRoark1]

jevons paradox

[@Mrbfgray]

Good point, I don't see ever not owning one or two cars (inc. pickup) but I enjoy a sports car for rural roads near me that I use mainly on fair weather weekends, almost doesn't count. For urban folks the situation is much different. I don't want to wait 10 minutes to get a ride and it could be much longer for me. For urban youth just entering car ownership age--hard to see why they'd own, same for most high density urban folks.

[@djlovetap2141]

Not for those that are buying a fleet of Robo taxis… the smart people 🥇

[@Mrbfgray]

@@djlovetap2141 I think it's smarter to own TSLA than the cars.

[@Teslafan9519]

I don't deny there's potential for $300T market cap but the odds of that happening by 2032 is extremely unlikely. I think $10-30T market cap by then is by far more realistic and perhaps $100-300T in around 2040s?

[@AlphaCrucis]

Does this assume exponential growth?

[@Teslafan9519]

@@AlphaCrucis The amount of robotaxis & robots required for $300T is extremely unlikely because of production & capabilities combined. I don't think we will be there yet in 2032. Tesla isn't going to have that many robots by 2032 at least I'm 99.99% sure about it but ofc I could be wrong.

[@garyrooksby]

@@Teslafan9519 "I'm 99.99% sure about it but ofc I could be wrong" is a rather long way to say "I'm confident". It's all opinions. I'd make two points: 1. Tesla keep innovating. Don't make predictions based on current technology only. Assume they'll come up with better methods, materials and tactics over time. 2. Just don't bet against Elon. It's never ended well in the past. Either way, if you hold TSLA then you're looking positive.

[@moparmopar-u4y]

Just another “analyst” putting out click bait with a large number

[@omenk8412]

Many of the analysts on this show tend to be city centric. There are a significant number of outer suburb and rural drivers that will not be served due to timing. Utilization drops when the time to pickup goes up. These drivers are also BIG contributors to the miles driven number. City drivers tend to drive shorter distances and/or use public transportation. That is why some of the analysis using miles driven come up a bit skewed.

[@bobwallace9753]

I live very remotely by most people's standards. I don't jump in my car and rush out for a bottle of milk or a pizza. I, like other people who live rurally, plan ahead. I'd have no problem scheduling a trip to town hours and even days in advance.

[@anthonycirrincione8872]

I live in the suburbs, and used to drive 50 minute to work and 50 minutes home every day. I would have been able to gain tremendous productivity on one of my side hustles.

[@omenk8412]

@@anthonycirrincione8872 would that have been true if you waited a half hour+ for a ride and paid for the trip both ways on each way?

[@johnturnbull2969]

The argument that people will give up their cars as soon as the price for a robotaxi drops low enough ignores families with small children. Even a well designed child safety seat takes several minutes to install and remove at both ends of the trip, and then what do the parents do with it while they shop, eat at the restaurant or watch a family movie? Private car ownership is more than just the convenient transportation. It also carries any additional supplies might be needed for any journey. When our children were young, we had a trunk full of clean cloths, diapers, toys and distractions. Admittedly, if there had been a ridiculously cheap and convenient transport alternative, we would have used it for most other travels.

[@Shabobidhuffy]

Dude , this teslas hype has been going since 2020. I’ve had FSD since 2021. It’s fantastic , but even the current version (on HW4 ) still has the same issues that will prevent it from being “full” self driving, the camera still gets blinded by low angle sunlight and completely gives up. In mild weather, it struggles big time and asks that the driver take over immediately. It’s still struggles with discerning objects in the road ,potholes, from shadows or simple plastic bags it can easily run over. How the hell can it comprehend, hand signals from traffic police or even crossing guards at a school 🏫 ? maybe they will get there one day , but robo tax is not “right around the corner “. Fact: Tesla stock is the same price since Jan 2022 😉 All these “predictions” and estimates are literally only on their spreadsheet.

[@oakfieldfarm4131]

People don’t use child seats in taxis do they?

[@johnturnbull2969]

@@oakfieldfarm4131 In some jurisdictions, yes. Here, many taxis have one or two child booster seats in the trunk, but if you need an infant seat, you need to provide it. Again, here, the driver is responsible for passengers under 18 being properly restrained, so taxi drivers are not keen to break the rules.

[@michaelholmes8848]

@@Shabobidhuffy so you don’t have version 13 yet? Robotaxis will be here next year.

[@garyrooksby]

There will be robotaxis fitted with multiple high quality child seats available as an option on the app. On the app you can set "I want 4 seats" or "I want two child seats" or "I want 1 child seat and one booster for a 7-year-old". Tick the right box and the right config arrives.

[@GohanSaru]

There are poor people who could be working, but transportation is an obstacle. A young guy I know takes the bus, but the bus stop is a mile from his house and he gets off late at night. He makes $15/hr, but an Uber ride can be $20. He has the same problem getting to a grocery store or anywhere. On-demand, cheap transportation that starts where you are and goes all the way to your destination will be life-changing for millions of low-income people.

[@francestesch4086]

I was in MexCity this month and rode in two Chinese vehicles. Impressed. One was a BYD Uber ride. It is owned by two gentlemen who hire all these drivers for their 370 or so vehicles. The car reminds me of what a cabbie in London looks like. Lots of legroom for the rider. The driver said the vehicle is in service for 9 hours then back to home base. Charge and a wash and back out again. I’ll bet the owners already have their order in for Robo Taxi although traffic in Mex City is so intense, it might not be the right environment. Time will tell.

[@karinemelo2549]

same here. took a byd uber last month in CDMX . Nice car. Driver liked it but could not tell if it was efficient / reliable . About robotaxi, I think there is so much market with more easy driving that once these will be saturated, FSD will be good enough to tackle more difficult cities. A bit like the SEMI. Once all the short/medium business routes will be saturated with EV trucks, batteries, tech and charging network will be much more improved and ready to crush the long haul trucking industry for the last segment of the truck business.

[@francestesch4086]

@ my driver said he was quite happy with the car. He thought it was good for Uber and made the comment Mex City is not a city where one can enjoy a car like a Tesla because it is a crawl and few areas to ramp up speed. I did see the Tesla truck going down Reforma. 😀

[@stvybaby]

At 70 years age, living off grid, I still have 3 ICE vehicles to sell and am dreaming of Cybertruck ownership. Just bought an electric bike, and am considering Uber, lyft, and soon RoboTaxi only and no car ownership expense.

[@TestTest-ve4ih]

Sell at least 2 of the ICE and buy TSLA

[@thebryster240]

Good down payment ​@@TestTest-ve4ih

[@garyrooksby]

@@TestTest-ve4ih YES!

[@garyrooksby]

Respect, sir! Consider selling two and leasing a CT for a while for the experience then put the money into TSLA and wait for the robotaxi rollout. I don't expect to own a car once they roll out into the UK. I have a car sitting outside my house 95% of the time just depreciating when I could get a robotaxi for my regular short trips to the park with my dog (I can't walk far enough to take him there on foot - I have MS), the shops and to visit friends.

[@guavabakka]

Warren is one of my favorite Tesla retail community members. The way thinks it's very often valuable to the community. Very often. Thank you Herbert, and Warren

[@mattsenkow6986]

"The Cybercab is simple enough in design that it can 100% be manufactured using Optimus." --- paraphrasing Second party quote from Tesla engineer Game over.

[@restonthewind]

Brian White said "using robots", not "using Optimus". Tesla like other automakers already uses industrial robots, but the robots are not humanoid.

[@freddymax5256]

In 2022 75% of Tesla vehicle build was done by robots.

[@restonthewind]

@@freddymax5256 Sure. GM can say the same without any humanoid bots. Automation has already replaced 90+% of human labor in the last century without any humanoid bots. AI may allow it to replace 90% again, but I see no reason for the automation to take humanoid form this time.

[@spideyff]

Even though robots have already replaced much of the labor in auto manufacturing, a fully automated factory would be ridiculous in that it can have continuous production. It won’t shut down on holidays, the summer, bad weather or for labor disagreements. With NO humans, there is no need for large restrooms, break rooms,office space, locker rooms,security checkpoints, multiple access/egress points and doesn’t have to consider workplace safety standards. The factory can be 100% focused on production and run 24-7. Management wise, there is no blue collar Union to communicate with, no benefits to pay, no Human Resources, and no OSHA to communicate with. A factory like this would have a ridiculous amount of production and a much lower cost of production.

[@garyrooksby]

@restonthewind exactly. Optimus excels in the general purpose. Specialist robots are best for unboxed production facilities. *Most* will not be humanoid but there may be a few jobs that need the flexibility of Optimus.

[@astranc]

Optimus will be much faster to market than Robotaxi as the consequence for error is less and the TAM is bigger.

[@ferrismartinez]

agreed, and the fact that the engineers that developed self driving will already have vast experience to develop the optimus robot.

[@johnny9648]

Does not seem to farfetched when as of 2020, Apple's stock price per share was around $23,000 (no splits) and is still growing they essentially only sell electronic devices (watch, PC's, Laptops, tablets and mobile phones).

[@thesolarfutureenthusiast1102]

Apples Market Cap is £3.5Bish I'm not saying you are right or wrong. Looking at individual share price doesn't tell you anything though.

[@Mrbfgray]

In Vietnam the Cybertaxi caries up to a dozen folks. Bots for farm work should be low hanging fruit. Here in Commifornia it's expensive and difficult to find enough workers to harvest crops, simple work but takes a lot of ppl/bots, out in the hot summer sun well over 100F much of the time. Respect for Warren's bold crazy numbers.

[@Electobat]

It is difficult but Warren is right

[@dogfacedponysoldier87]

Don’t ask Warren what Tesla is worth in the year 2050.

[@ianelliott8224]

300 Quintillion I would guess 3 to the 20

[@thefish5861]

$24 gazillion.

[@choongta]

Tesla is worth nothing when people are 6 feet under in 2050.

[@PeterAndWillAnderson]

I love Warren. But just to clarify the model three is currently $35,000 which is actually a lot cheaper than Elon predicted because of inflation. So Elon over delivered on that prediction.

[@LJ-jq8og]

SO so True ! When ELON gives a time people whine ! Whether its freaking 2026 or 2028 I dont give a 💩 -- as long as it HAPPENS 💥

[@slowercuber7767]

22:00 replacing subway transport with Robotaxi surface transport will add more congestion to the surface streets. Are there estimates on how much is saved by the down sizing to CyberCabs vs the increase in the number of cabs?

[@jkj420]

I don’t think this can beat a good subway system. Nor should it. The two can coexist.

[@Jmax777]

Are you forgetting the “not a flamethrower” company?

[@vladvale]

A couple of observations: While the human labor is cheaper in EM, capital costs are higher. Since robotaxis powertrains are way more durable than ICEs this will level things a bit. Also, its consumers are much more price sensitive. 2 - I would love to see a similar calculation regarding the business oportunity in thw cargo industey. An autonomous truck + Optimus coukd take a lot of market share fron UPS to more B2B companies.

[@stevedowler2366]

Herbert thanks for having Warren on your channel, he's one of the best clear thinkers about the Tesla stories. Warren, Robotaxis will be ubiquitous in metro areas but not for road trippers like retired folks or tourists. Will RTs not use Superchargers? Probably not, they'll charge at their fleet bases and hubs. What will happen then to the SC network over time? Will it stagnate with no new station locations? Will V4 SCs revitalise the network, serving not only CyberTrucks but newer cars capable of accepting 400kW? Thanks for your insights and thanks again Herbert.

[@Jmax777]

The model 3 and Y long range will also be in the network, you can also go on long road trips and hop from car to car. Proberly the next gen 3 and Y will also get inductive charging.

[@thesolarfutureenthusiast1102]

You'll be able to hire a FSD vehicle for road trips. Tesla's stated goal is to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy. If Warrens vision of the future comes to pass there will still be other electric vehicles to service with superchargers and Tesla will have the funds to put them in place. RT's will likely have base charging but also be capable of using v5 wireless transfer Superchargers would be my guess. This would give them the capability of transporting people larger distances for the edge case transportation need.

[@my9129]

Another aspect is that Tesla can be very sophisticated about how it prices FSD services. It makes spreadsheets harder to set up, it’s easier to just simplify it to Tesla selling FSD or employing its own vehicles but they have lots of options. They can know exactly how it’s being used so they can deep discount FSD to people for personal use and do that by subscription rather than purchase. That leads to families that needed two or more cars doing better with just one that can drive itself. Charities and governments can offer free rides to people that need them. Tesla Network can have pricing that’s the opposite of UberLyft and has a ceiling rather than a floor. They can deep discount travel in off peak hours when the cars would otherwise be sitting around. They can pretty quickly get every single Tesla that’s capable of running it use it most of the time and start to generate entirely new revenue for Tesla on a very large scale. Given that, it will pay to switch HW three vehicles to Hardware four if necessary.

[@RealRadNek]

You can see it on Herbert's face the whole interview, "Yah, right Warren." Don't blame him. When I saw Warren's video, my expression watching his video was just like Herberts.

[@ShamrunUnderscoreBof]

I love warren. 300T is wild lets be honest.

[@asbestosflake5749]

Would that not make the stock price 90k per share? 🤔 😅

[@choongta]

nah...it's not wild. It's pure stupidity. The US total GDP is barely 30 trillion now - the entire US. So, C'mon...people are daydreaming all day...and then all night.

[@jdcarguy1242]

36:28 As labor becomes unlimited, the cost curve of labor trends to zero. That's why I'm not completely on board with the 300-500x valuation.😊

[@fatmisami4213]

look at it that way slash his 500x by 10-20-30-50 time and it still crazy valuation

[@dogfacedponysoldier87]

So Tesla can be $39,500 to $100,000 a share in the distant future…. Is the summary. What year? Well…. I predict $7000 by 2028, $12,000 by 2031, $20,000 by 2036, $50,000 by 2045, and so on.

[@LJ-jq8og]

As long as it happens I am fine with ANY DELAYS !

[@ChuckHolland-i4b]

We can only dream. You actually have to sell the shares to liquidate only to see the feds steal your money.

[@jpmb-hz3jo]

10x by 2030

[@DQ-su6qf]

Herbert..You’ve got to get Jo on with Warren..Jo Bhakdi.

[@dogfacedponysoldier87]

By 2032 the 100m cyber cabs can happen if every automaker on earth drops what they are doing and signs up with Tesla. It can be 4 billion by 2040. Mind boggling.

[@ianelliott8224]

Good point, I wonder what FSD licencing deals Tesla will offer to first movers

[@bobwallace9753]

Licensing Tesla FSD might be the only route to survival for most other car companies.

[@MarkSpohr]

Yes. That is CRAZY.

[@mragendds]

You’re wrong about it being more convenient. In nyc taking a cab usually takes 2-3 times as long as taking the subway. People don’t want to spend that much time getting where they want to go.

[@jacqueshowell6874]

Not everyone lives in NYC

[@daveb2226]

You won’t get mugged or killed in a robocab. Privacy and ability to work is also a benefit.

[@Starmann3]

Another excellent piece 🔥💯

[@colinbridges8241]

Not all miles travelled will be paid for. A to B is fine but the car is now at B. If the next ride is back at A or somewhere else, getting the car there will be unpaid. I am sure the projections are going to be extremely high but this dead time and cost never seems to be mentioned. Just saying.

[@garycarson3128]

Great video guys! It is always good to hear Warren’s thoughts. I like the way he thinks outside the box!

[@luismoya5268]

I love hearing the possibilities, great shows boys!

[@mikemulrooney4824]

Cybercab has only half the parts as a model3.

[@smbcap]

so many of his assumptions are incorrect. here are a few: 1)a mature business wouldn't trade at 50P/E. it would trade at a market multiple of around 20. 2)his gross profit assumptions are way off. $10K per vehicle at end state more realistic based on competive pressure 3)100mln vehicles. maybe 2040 not 2032. overall this isn't a serious analysis. it's the opposite of what Cern has done.

[@ianelliott8224]

Who says Tesla is a mature company by 2032, they may still be growing like crazy

[@smbcap]

Each line of business is looked at individually. 100mln robo taxis is a mature business. ​@@ianelliott8224

[@simoncollins7040]

Sure, it's napkin maths after all. Cern's is much more comprehensive. Bear in mind however that Warren did leave off a lot of additional potential profit lines in his analysis such as energy, autonomous Tesla Semi, FSD licensing etc, many of which will play out to at least some extent in that timeframe

[@thesolarfutureenthusiast1102]

1) He stated that he didn't consider these numbers to be that of the mature business. 2) Gross profit on manufacturing the vehicle + SAS for 10 years of FSD + The Robotaxi app itself at $10k per vehicle? Sounds low to me. Maybe by 2080 there will be that much competitive pressure. 3) He did say investors will be able to see the path to 100M vehicles by 2032 not that the would be there by 2032. I agree that he has assigned the PE multiple to future earning though which does effectively make it a 2040 price target. This is where he has gone clearly wrong IMO.

[@jdcarguy1242]

6:35 I have 8. 7 in operation. Easily 200hrs of time per year to keep them in service.

[@dogfacedponysoldier87]

Warren is not wrong

[@SakuraSynapse]

I'm so glad there are smart people in the Tesla community that can do the strategizing for me, because I'd have no idea where to start.

[@tomcurnett1635]

It is my understanding Warren worked in the insurance industry as a defense attorney. He helped policy holders being sued. I'm certain his work required him to dig, dig and dig for information. That's a major reason why I follow him, he is guided by the truth.

[@hyperbitcoinizationpod]

The assumption in this model is that each cyber cab makes the same profit. I expect there is a ride/price density variable per location deployed. So the first car will take the top taxi spot, the second will take the second best, etc, etc.. Not all cybercabs will earn the same. And after a while adding more cars will decrease profits. It will be a hierarchical distribution.

[@AstroSquid]

Any polls on individuals that want to own a Robo Taxi. My mother is now 80, it would be perfect for her.

[@parthar101]

Will she have good eyesight to operate the touchscreens ? What about need for wheel chairs etc. May need a custom built Robotaxi with low assist ?

[@TN-jb4jk]

FSD 13 can almost get here anywhere on autopilot. It is that mindblowing

[@PeterAndWillAnderson]

I’m a big bull but disagree on some of the bulls predictions. Here’s my prediction of upcoming events: 1. Juniper will be insane (400 mile range, upgrade in many ways). 2. They will release lower trims of the 3 and Y. 3. There will be no licensing deals. 4. Pedal to the metal with FSD and robotaxi fleet!

[@thesolarfutureenthusiast1102]

IMO There will be licensing deals. To not do so increases the timeline to sustainability and decreases safety for all.

[@anthonycirrincione8872]

What about commuters, who lose hours of productivity driving to work. That's a no brainer.

[@wadeyorke8144]

If Warren is correct in the number of CyberCabs that are needed, Tesla may have to contract Ford and GM to build them as well. This could save the U.S. auto industry and result in quick regulatory approval since American industry would benefit.

[@NicoVeenkamp]

Maybe every one that drives a car now will have a problem with switching to robocall. The real big market are the 14- teens that don’t have license yet. At the time robotaxi will ramp up they will have the choice between owning a car and getting a license or no license and riding robotaxi. This one big target for robotaxi marketshare.

[@ziggyshlemon7077]

Mazda and Nissan both have popular 2 seaters

[@thesolarfutureenthusiast1102]

They do. Are they popular in the USA? Not that your point isn't valid. Just these guys probably aren't aware of them.

[@solarguy4850]

FYI … don’t be “disappointed” in Tesla’s 30 cent/mile loaded cost estimate for robotaxi. Actual cost is closer to 18 cents, but since some miles are unloaded (you have to drive to pick up a fare), actual costs are higher. Tesla simply used the average loaded miles of current taxis to come up with their number. 30 cents is right .

[@MarcoTrillion]

Awesome video. Thank you Herbert and Warren. 😁🙏

[@douglee4687]

FYI... BYD has been building electric busses in Lancaster California since 2023. They are on pace to build a second facility for school busses in Lancaster in 2025 capable of 4,000 units annually.

[@Tesla2Space]

Follow the money; all projects are funded by evs! Thus car Margin is huge if u minus new product development!

[@AlphaCrucis]

I' happy if we get 10% of the way there.

[@richardalexander5758]

Even if 1/4 of these numbers pan out TSLA is going to be a great place to invest.

[@williamellingsworth1643]

Warren’s the GOAT!

[@austinterry2094]

I don’t think you’ll ever be able to replace personal ownership for a family vehicle. The car seats alone make it worth ownership. I think this can replace commuter cars to a degree. Americans also love being able to leave personal belongings in the car. And think of the convenience of going store to store and progressively being able to leave purchases in the car until you get home. Certainly this will do well in the cities first. I think Optimus will dwarf robotaxi though.

[@ChristopherLeeEdwards]

Tesla already said they lines for Cybercab are ready now. The energy cost for Tesla should be no more than 4c kw/hr, possibly near zero, with wireless charging and robotic cleaning. Cost per mile over 1 million miles is 5 cents. Thats the number Warren quoted back on December 18th 2019. So, closer to 10 to 20 cents per mile, cost, would be more accurate.

[@rosspatterson44]

Regarding NYC subway … moving all those people above ground would create gridlock, would it not ???

[@thesolarfutureenthusiast1102]

Totally. There is the boring company or potentially subsidised NYC subways or something but moving all/most subway commuters into personalised vehicles wouldn't work so won't happen.

[@newby_tradr2883]

Optimus factory will probably be comparable to size & productions line of a scooter factory. Each scooter probably weighs about 120 to 150 lbs. But there will be more smaller and unique components in a Optimus robot that will be more complicated to incorporate on a production line than a scooter.

[@JD-kk6cl]

True, if the robotaxi rate is charged too high, demand will outstrip supply. Also, the initial development, operating, and maintenan costs wil be high Further, there will be unforeseen costs associated with the overall operations Summary, (1) rate of charge should be higher (but still lower than that of Uber and Lift) at the beginning and (2) the rate will and should begin to decline as: (A) Tesla will have gained more experience in the field and (B) Thus Tesla will be able to maintain good profitability while simultaneously lowering the rate of charge

[@rog351]

the profit for the cybercab may be lower than projected because > say someone wants a destination of 10 or 20 miles …. fine. >> but then the Cybercab would need to drive back vacant ( without anyone in the vehicle ) to it’s place of business to wait for the next ride request …. Those vacant miles and time would reduce the profit margin quite a lot, I would think ….. Is this right or only partially right?

[@LJ-jq8og]

WARREN💪❤ is "one of our best" in the community ⚡

[@chopstix3]

If it ever gets to 300 trillion, which is going to met with massive skepticism, that’s gonna be ridiculously life changing for so many retail

[@JohnSmith-x3y8h]

So like… Microsoft Netflix Apple Amazon Nvidia

[@scottsmith5387]

Uber sales TTM is $41B. I think Tesla gobbles up most if not all of that with-in a couple of years. What would that do to Tesla stock price?

[@arsenbalun8855]

This is great assuming everything's goes smoothly. Few major fsd accidents or Optimus accidents and we could be majorly set back.

[@garycarson3128]

I really think we are making manufacturing of a humanoid robot a big deal. I don’t think it is. Apple doesn’t manufacture the iPhone, they outsource manufacturing to Foxcon. There are dozens of global companies that are excellent manufacturers. Perhaps Tesla is the best or one of the best, but there are others. The humanoid robot market is so lucrative and so huge that even the second best or third best or fifth best humanoid robot manufacturer will still be hugely successful if they offer a quality product. Even Apple only has a 30% to 35% share of the smartphone market. That leaves 65% to 70% market share for many more companies.

[@LJ-jq8og]

Most of what you are saying is true. But as Apple learned the hard way with its grossly expensive and failed attempts to also make an electric car, Tesla already has the lead. Moreover, it requires synergies of all those different technologies and integration of all those different technologies, which, by the way Apple has proven other big companies will fail. So yes, I agree. The total addressable market is ginormous, but I still believe it's going to be a monopoly because Tesla has a rate of innovation and has all the data whether it's Robo taxi or the robots. Tesla also is a master of acquiring the best talent and as we've just witnessed convincing Nvidia to expedite to Tesla, all the newest hottest computers.

[@tyronemcgillick]

Great vid, thanks🎉

[@lagmanson]

We both have a Tesla with FSD with the hope that it will be fully self driving before we need it desperately as we get older. And will be our private robo taxi.

[@kirkellis4329]

The unboxed process for Cybercabs should reduce the labor hours by so much that the difference in hourly wage between America and Mexico or China won't matter. When it costs $1,000 per vehicle to ship it to the US, and there are only 5 hours labor in each vehicle, it makes sense to pay an American worker $100/hr even though the foreign worker is $5/hr. The less labor in mfg, the more it makes sense to avoid offshore mfg and do it local.

[@richf3654]

Here's another thought about the Mexico factory. if they are making cyber cabs in Mexico, but not selling them, just shipping them to the u. S to put in service, why would they have to pay a tariff? They ship to the US and put him in service as cybercab! No tariff!.

[@Martin-se3ij]

Wouldn't customs tax on the value of it, whether it's sold or not?

[@bobtanner4068]

This works in urban areas and small states, how will it low populated areas. Montana, Dakota’s or Canada

[@chopstix3]

To get people to do cyber cab, they need to give the owner a 70/30 split where Tesla takes 30 or less.

[@thesolarfutureenthusiast1102]

Yes but only on the owner operated vehicles. Warren was suggesting these would be supplementary to the Tesla owned fleet and only quoted numbers for the Tesla owned fleet. His numbers, not mine btw 🙂

[@jackykenna6398]

There are over 200,000 Uber drivers and a few, very few taxis in California. I am in London. I have always had a car. It used to be difficult to find a parking space. I have not had one for the past 10 years. I would use a Robotaxi tomorrow, were one available. Parking in my district is now easy as there are many less cars. I can clearly remember when Uber started. It was cheaper if there were 2 people than traveling than the same journey on the tube. Say 5 - 7 stops. There are aprox. 45,000 Uber drivers in London. (not including those just outside.)

[@Brad-sb1dk]

I'm long on Tesla and it's my largest position, but would love to hear counter-arguments to all this Tesla sunshine.

[@Tesla2Space]

Labor at whole sale! Optimus and Robo taxie and cybercab!

[@stvybaby]

Bots making bots making bots. Literally the machine builds the machine builds... 😊

[@restonthewind]

I was a computer science major in the early 80s. I've been hearing about robots building themselves since then, and of course, we're closer now than we were forty years ago, but I've seen no evidence that we're a few years away.

[@rudyromo]

I like $420T.😅

[@phide01]

Tesla will also sell insurance on the cabs also

[@andyonions7864]

Superabundance doesn't mean 3 billion 10 bedroom mansions with private pools and 3 car garages. It can't. It can mean cheap consumable products and food for all.

[@mua2]

I’ve been watching Warren early 2021, nothing he predicts pans out lol. His entire thesis back then was 4680, his famous “battery model”. He always tends to have an outlandish thesis.

[@LJ-jq8og]

How can you say that? The 4680 battery is still coming to fruition. So the race is not even halfway done. I would suggest you wait and see how your criticism ages. Oh by the way, it doesn't really matter because Tesla is such a massive disruptor and in so many innovative technologies about to explode. None of this will matter because the stock is still going to go through the roof either way.

[@mua2]

@ the 4680 is nice, but Warren’s thesis was that the 4680 battery would be so game changing that it would be the driver of Tesla scaling insanely and cutting costs so much that they reach 20 million units in production annually. He made outlandish claims and none of that panned out. Now he’s making more outlandish claims, I suggest examining his record before putting any stock in his claims, his track record in terms of how bullish he’s been is pretty terrible. Pretty sure he predicted that Tesla would be a 10-20 trillion dollar company by now.

[@LJ-jq8og]

@@mua2 All fair points... I view him as ultra-optimistic... BUT all it takes is a few things "to catch fire" and I think we may well be in the ballpark of what he is aiming at... ALSO once they have perfected 4680 or the next iteration... the just is still out on that... It just proved a little harder in the meantime...

[@restonthewind]

@@mua2 Sure, I said that Jesus would return in 2000, and I was wrong then, but you should totally believe me when I say that He'll return next year! Just look at my evidence from the Book of Revelations!

[@adrianamatilda1]

I lost over $80k when everything started to tank. Not because I was in an exchange that went belly up. I was just stupid to hold and because that's what everyone said. I'm still responsible. It just taught me to be a better investor now that I understand more of what could go wrong. It took me over two years of being in the market, I'm really grateful I found one source to recover my money, at least $10k profits weekly. Thanks Charlotte Grace Miller.

[@marthasteward0]

I'm celebrating a $30k stock portfolio today. started this journey with 6k. I have invested on time and also with the right terms now I have time for my family and the life ahead of me

[@SammieOlin]

The very first time we tried, we invested $1400 and after a week, we received $5230. That really helped us a lot to pay up our bills.

[@masterotrunks]

I'm surprised that you just mentioned and recommended Charlotte Miller, I met her at a conference in 2018 and we have been working together ever since.

[@KenistonKist]

I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?

[@agathacolleen]

I just withdrew my profits a week ago, To be honest it was an amazing feeling when the profits hits my wallet I wish I could reinvest but, too much bills

[@Betrue875]

I'm not in total agreement. I still think cars represent freedom for most people. People will continue to own their own vehicle.

[@restonthewind]

I haven't heard him say it yet, but I agree that many people will cease to own a personal vehicle when robotaxis are ubiquitous and can travel almost anywhere. Also, many families will own one car rather than two or three. A robotaxi service could offer a subscription and guarantee a taxi within a given time, say ten or fifteen minutes. That's all the freedom I need. I work from home and rarely take long road trips, and I believe that some people will still own a personal vehicle, but many others will not. I don't believe that Tesla will have a monopoly on this service, and I don't believe it will happen next year or the year after without remote operators and a geofence. The downside for automakers is that they'll sell fewer cars. The number of cars on the road could fall by half in the 2030s even if the number of miles driven increases. During the transition, the number of cars sold annually will fall precipitously and will never reach the pre-transition levels unless the population rises a lot.

[@Betrue875]

@restonthewind Interesting perspective. I saw my parents live with one car all their lives, but my mom was a stay-at-home mom. Unless we return to that scenario, I can't see it happening.

[@johnfurr6060]

Yes for some current generations. New generations will not feel this way. Freedom? Freedom to install and app and go anywhere even as a young teen..

[@Betrue875]

@@johnfurr6060 I get excited to think of the possibilities for hadicapped, visually impared or elderly who no longer drive.

[@restonthewind]

@@Betrue875 At 62, I suppose I qualify as elderly, but I don't enjoy driving nearly as much as when I was younger. My 96 year old father still drives, but I don't expect to own a personal automobile at his age, and good riddance.

[@stevenvanheyningen6403]

Great video !!!

[@sirousmohseni4]

With all the details that Warren considers, I am happy his view and mine lineup.

[@christopherknipe8723]

Elon said anyone can buy a cyber cab and let it chauffeur you around and or let it go out and earn you money.

[@ImmoReichardt]

Yeah - Warren! Happy

[@stanparchaiski5394]

This is absolutely realistic. There is no company on the planet in the same space as Tesla. They are the dominant AI play and no one is even close.

[@ChrisGohl]

Herbert, I liked your "let's go" comment. It didn't look like Warren picked up on it.

[@ARNOLD5698]

Why would Tesla sell the cybercab ? If it would make 100x more profit on robotaxi network

[@stvybaby]

What per centage of all Teslas manufacturers are still on the road? How many miles do existing Tesla car models last before being junked?

[@mikemulrooney4824]

Elon said it is gen3 robots that sell to the general public

[@JD-kk6cl]

If my memory serves me well, I remember Elon saying that it doesn't make sense, paraphrasing, to put a steering wheel and other components in the Cybercab for sale to consumers

[@macros4129]

I think the podcar is a good idea. We want to be in a pod everywhere we go outside!

[@datamatters8]

re: optimus and selling them for $110K will be short lived ( a few years IMHO). Warren's napkin math is not lost on the competition. BTW, they are not like Boeing, Lockheed-Martin with SpaceX reusable rockets or Blackberry, Nokia or Motorola with the Apple iPhone. Competitors for the AI s/w are: Microsoft, OpenAI, Meta, Apple, Google, Amazon, China and others TBD. All can put AI dev teams together or have them already. ditto for training h/w: All of the above already have large compute clusters and/or are developing their own internal AI compute chips (Microsoft, Apple, Google at least). They also have the bucks to buy AI GPUs from NVIDIA, Intel and AMD. While the last two don't have the AI training stack the s/w vendors above can develop their own. For physical robot hardware there are already lots of companies entering the field including China and some will license AI software from the vendors above (and perhaps Tesla or XAI) just like android phone makers license the software from Google. The s/w vendors will make huge margins and not have the capital costs of making the robot hardware. Though Apple does make huge margins even though it designs and sells the iphone hardware using contractors for the manufacturing. Google, Meta, Amazon and Microsoft might do the same. As to data for robots these competitors are closer to an even footing since Tesla doesn't have an advantage in the Robot related task data. And robot tasks for the factory and other limited / controlled environments are easier than solving generalized self-driving in varied, harsh and hazard filled road systems including wild human drivers. all these companies and new startups are chasing this enormous pile of money just like Google chased Apple with its Android offering. This means that the $110K sell price will drop to maybe $20K in a few years. Maybe the first mover will be able to charge $30K. I think the successful first mover will be selling a robot that can take instruction from the owner to do new jobs and provide a reliable offering. I want to be able to show the robot how I want my books organized or my house cleaned or my food cooked or how I want it to treat my children, etc. re: robo taxi -- consider savings in parking and the hassle of finding a parking space in a big city. More people may visit big cities from the burbs if robotaxi rides are cheap. Also, putting your kid in a cybercab rather than sending them via the subway or a bus will be very attractive. Ditto for the elderly.

[@jiabinsong9697]

I think when Tesla get robotaxi regulatory approval, they will no longer sell cars, all cars will be used as robotaxi. So in 2027, there will be 4 million robotaxi, assume $50k gross profit per car per year, the total profit for robotaxi business will be $200bn, 50PE will be 10 trillion dollars.

[@deeppatel7068]

Warren, what about traffics in NYC?

[@ericdelevinquiere9902]

my issue here is that given this expansion, the whole context of the economy at large will be impacted. Monetizing this is not possible because money itself could be obsolete once optimus etc… are full on. Market share of total economies might be a more accurate measurement. Regardless we are talking about a paradigm shift for the human race.

[@stevesimeonidis5488]

This was mind blowing 🤯 It is Possible!!

[@bpo6955]

In Feb 2021, Warren’s price target for TSLA (base case) for 2024 was $1330, split adjusted. Let’s just say his track record is not great

[@EpicStrategies578]

Hmm, I haven't seen Optimus kneel down or take a knee🤔 or even Squat. Wonder if it can and be productive while doing that too.

[@Martin-se3ij]

And people were saying they were dancing at the event but when you look their feet were not moving. So, waving about, not dancing.