Executing Agenda Trading Strategy for Stratospheric Returns · Lukas Frohlich (The Short Bear)

EP 259 | Executing Agenda Trading Strategy for Stratospheric Returns | Lukas Frohlich
Lacking education, mentors or money, Lukas Frohlich, known to many as The Short Bear, became fascinated with financial markets when only 13 years old. Saving everything he could from jobs, he started trading before he could even legally drive a car. He created KZbin and Twitter accounts to share strategies, victories and defeats to help fellow traders improve their game. Obsessed with learning from mistakes, understanding gains and improving his process lead to outrageous gains in 2020 with his Agenda Trading strategy. Changing market conditions propelled Lukas into innovating new strategies quite different from what he started with. His focus, dedication and discipline for self improvement allowed him to branch out in new business areas helping others that go beyond just the trading world.
* NEED ACCOUNTABILITY IN YOUR TRADING JOURNEY? LEARN ABOUT THE TRADERS ACCOUNTABILITY PROGRAM BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE CWT COMMUNITY: chatwithtraders.com/community/
Topics & Timestamps:
Please note: Exact times will vary depending on current ads.
0:00 Background
3:20 Early trading and mistakes
7:41 Staying in the game despite mistakes
8:24 January 2020 spectacular returns through a rush of liquidity
12:45 How he pyramided gains
13:55 March 2020 returns of over 600%
15:40 Process for trading setups
19:55 Quantitative process for small caps
22:00 Why he focused on small caps in 2020
25:40 How he avoided any monthly drawdowns in 2020
27:39 Agenda trading is the primary reason for his spectacular returns
28:58 Ended 2020 with returns of over 892,000%
32:00 When he gets out of a position
33:50 Reasons for drawdowns in 2021
36:00 Risk management evolving over time
38:18 Strategies evolve with changing markets
40:35 Technical vs Fundamental approach and importance of each
43:15 Money needed to pump small stocks for successful secondary offering
48:25 The disciplined pursuit of less
50:10 Habits and routine
54:15 Current market conditions
57:40 Naked short selling used by pumpers?
59:20 Impact of Silicon Valley bank on the economy and markets
62:45 Risks facing todays traders
65:00 Mental models
66:30 What Lukas struggles with
70:00 His goals
74:00 Biggest misunderstandings about trading
79:00 Best ways to get in touch with Lukas
See more show notes here:
chatwithtraders.com/259
Links & Resources:
- Blogs: theshortbear.substack.com/
- Twitter: / theshortbear
- KZbin: / @theshortbear3250
* NEED ACCOUNTABILITY IN YOUR TRADING JOURNEY? LEARN ABOUT THE TRADERS ACCOUNTABILITY PROGRAM BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE CWT COMMUNITY: community.chatwithtraders.com/
DISCLAIMER:
Trading in the financial markets involves a risk of loss. Podcast episodes and other content produced by Chat With Traders are for informational or educational purposes only and do not constitute trading or investment recommendations or advice.
#stocktrading #daytrading #bearmarket #shortselling

[@traderlope1164]

Trading since 13 is wild 😂 I give props to Ian and Tessa, great interview thanks guys

[@salmanahmad8659]

I demand Part 2 Like Lance

[@pacman.96]

even part 3 I would love to know how he nails down his short ideas, also the journey of his equity curve

[@mosherchtman]

I've heard the name of this trader several times, it's cool that he's here

[@hamafranklin1517]

Thank you for sharing

[@JAYMOAP]

Keep up the great videos 🔥

[@ajitassi7720]

This guy is the real deal. Inspired by him when he was in madaz money's chat.

[@hamisintunzwenimana8083]

Good Technical 1. Strategy / Position Sizing 2. Risk management / Tharp Concepts

[@sidneestocks]

Nice interview!!

[@hoatran-ll7lo]

Really enjoyed this interview

[@boyangirginov]

Excellent Interview (clap)

[@jtFacts77]

Let's just say he started 2020 with $10,000. If he made 892,192% on his money, during that year, he would have ended up with $89 million by the end of 2020. Not saying it's impossible, but if true, much respect.

[@Zykosis]

He had to have started with way more than that. Supposedly he was profitable for several years before 2020…

[@artlenski8115]

I am saying, it’s impossible.

[@artlenski8115]

@makelzs2708 this guy is 23 yo, so years ago he would be like 13? ;)

[@swirlandsniff2335]

If it's too good to be true it probably is. Why is he selling courses? I think he's a fake

[@DeividasJursa]

890% makes it 89k.

[@turkishromeo83]

892'000% would be a world record! as i know, dan zanger is holding the record. but i never heard, that his record was beaten... so it's a little strange to be honest.

[@traderelated]

whats the best way to learn about stuff like raising capital, SEC, promoter, stock offerings etc?

[@rheuevr]

People who said hes selling stuff. What stuff is he selling ? He did mentioned he put in 1k into account . So his return 8720x turns into 8.7m?

[@G_B_G_B]

23? I am questioning everything now 😮 my understanding of the universe needs to start over again.

[@ikaantynytlapsi9474]

This was great.

[@alexcherfan7762]

Lets go Lukas! Thanks guys!

[@akidaboissiere8604]

the negative comments on this are disappointing. I was able to build my scanner and get an average HOD and LOD and it improved my trading ten fold. There is many software to pull data and i started tracking manually in excel as well. You can't expect him to give every piece of his edge. This interview changed my trading.

[@vuemeca]

What is LOD and HOD?

[@akidaboissiere8604]

@@vuemeca low of day and high of day.

[@ismaelamaro7728]

A lot of haters out there, as usual.

[@user-dv5gm2gc3u]

Strange story. 892.192% performance in 1 year is great. Currently investing money for clients at 23? Ok.. But twitter looks like a marketing feed & website is full with affiliate links? Could be possible, but most of the time these are scams.

[@traderlope1164]

He more than likely works harder than a lot of fund managers and I believe a lot of everyday financial advisors can’t match up charts to fundamentals. Could be a scam sure but It’s not too far of a reach

[@user-dv5gm2gc3u]

@@traderlope1164 somehow I also give him the benefit of the doubt and hope there will be an episode 2 that goes more into his strategy/techniques. But it's imo balancing on the line between legit and scam.

[@swirlandsniff2335]

​@@traderlope1164 it's way out of reach. With those returns why does he have to sell stuff?

[@adriandoe1090]

​@@swirlandsniff2335 exactly what stuff is he selling the you keep on saying?

[@robertsimonuy9743]

If it's audited he should replace Dan Zanger's return of 29k % return.

[@utica2burn]

Interesting point!

[@robertkubica149]

Yes, it has been 'audited' by a money transfer from a brokerage firm this 'trader' is promoting to a ChatWithTraders owners.. Most probably. Shame, shame, shame.

[@bluered1686]

Without the charts , its a bit .. charts on the screen definitely helps understand 🙄

[@Zykosis]

Yes they need to go through chart examples or trade examples with the fundamentals/technicals he’s talking about so people can understand the trades with edge

[@ChatWithTradersPodcast]

Agreed. When feasible (depending on the guest and nature of the topic) we may include a static chart (or other supporting documentation) in the show notes on the main ChatWithTraders.com website. We are a podcast in the traditional sense - primarily an audio medium made available to listeners on podcast players. We then make it available on KZbin as a secondary method of access to the podcast, therefore it is also audio only. From time to time, we invite past guests for a follow up interview inside our CWT Community where there will be more opportunities for follow-up topics, in-depth chart and screen sharing, community members interacting with the guest, and Q&A. If you're interested in this and other exclusive benefits, then you may consider becoming a member of the CWT Community >> community.chatwithtraders.com/

[@AlejandroRasmussen7]

dude is 22 and talks like he is a 50 year old trader... great interview

[@jtlynch6761]

In person would have been way better 😊

[@HardcoreYTAddict]

I used to know this guy and I was always simultaneously appreciative of his helpfulness and wisdom and also extremely jealous of his savant trading abilities. He was never selling or advertising stuff so idk what people in the comments are going on about. One of the most disciplined and intelligent traders ever.

[@ismaelamaro7728]

Pretty cool that you knew him. Sounds like a nice guy.

[@phunchoktrades...]

Anyone after Asits tweet?? 😂❤

[@gazzoob6953]

funny how chatwithtraders deleted my comment where i asked if they saw the deloitte audit with their own eyes. they said they did but now all of that conversation is deleted? will be funny when this short bear fraud finally gets exposed. i will then post screenshots.

[@ChatWithTradersPodcast]

Were you under this same KZbin user id that you are logged in here? If not, what was your user id when you started that conversation so we can find out what happened? As a side note: from time to time, we may essentially "block" a KZbin user id from our channel if any comments were outright offensive or disrespectful in any video of this channel. For example, if a user id was blocked from any of the videos, then that user id is blocked from all videos on the entire channel. This could have been a mistake if your user id was blocked. We do remember that conversation that you mentioned. Nothing has changed on our position. We asserted that we received and reviewed the audit related to our guest's performance and found it to be credible. Additionally, here is a link to FAQ regarding guest credibility: chatwithtraders.com/faq/

[@TheMountainBeyondTheWoods]

I really don't like interviews like these, I learned nothing about how he actually trades or executes, just that he shorts and that he made a ridiculous amount of money. If it's true than he is one of the most successful traders in history, and if so, great for him, but I have to say I'm extremely skeptical of any of this.

[@Zykosis]

I never understood why in these interviews they never go over the exact trades that made those extreme returns.. in detail? I would think that’s adding real value to the community. Instead they talk about discipline, emotions, preach risk management blah blah blah

[@calvintong5036]

Because no one is gonna share their real edge. Is the same as other successful people. If you ask any successful people " what is your secret sauce to success" they will just say "do what have passion in. Never give up" and everyone will be like " this is very inspirational"

[@trocchiettoski]

@@calvintong5036 holy words, if he would give the edge, would lose. But between the lines a lot of perks in this episode

[@billyblack3816]

Hater

[@munix9351]

Go to your library and get all the old books on trading. These guys are never going to tell you the whole truth. That's the whole point of the branding. It's to entertain and draw you in. Go get the tangible k owledge. Read, read read. Get the authentic information

[@samuelandrade6646]

so this guy has been trading since 13 lol so 23 to 33 he has been trading for 20 years.

[@petersax7305]

Shorting into small caps and pyramiding: Lukas counts with help from naked short sellers and regulators that look the other way. If ever these short sellers should be truly trapped into a real short squeeze, Lukas will not find the liquidity required to close at the desired stop loss price. At that point losses might get out of hand. Lukas should read up on illegal naked short selling as he trades side by side with those guys. This is not to say that Lukas does illegal short selling but better know on who's side you are trading. Liquidity is as high because if it wouldn't big shorts would be dead. Liability then would be with the brokers so as they don't like to be liable they prefer to look the other way. Check FINRA fines on brokers for wrongly categorizing short sales as longs. It's a crime in progress.

[@gazzoob6953]

🤣 that guy is full of it. @chatwithtraders do you even vet your guests?

[@aleno45n66]

Poor Title Choice!! You should have included his returns in the title

[@DK4Code]

Just another trust fund baby

[@gazzoob6953]

@ChatWithTradersPodcast You'll be delighted to know that your wonder boy is now spamming affiliate links on Twitter. Makes sense for a guy who returned 900,000% in a year. 🤣😂

[@bus3014]

Not impressed at all. First off, his father was an engineer but poor Lukas was the underdog because he was too stupid at school? Does this guy even know how much rich privilege you have to have to even to get into “unhealthy habits” because you’re financially allowed to focus all in on trading ? Just a rich kid who made even more money with his parents money. Cool, but he is a toddler in life

[@joshtanner9964]

There's a lot more to trading than having supposed "rich privilage"

[@RVOL-Addict]

I respectfully think that you are an idiot.

[@alexchala7035]

Yea right mate... have a go a something rather then winging about others success

[@TwelfthRoot2]

you think being an engineer makes you rich? lol. good traders can start with $1000 and do numbers on it after a few hundred trades.

[@ismaelamaro7728]

Why the hate? Why not try to learn something from the guy?

[@jasonstazm]

Any pig made money in 2020

[@thanoo9373]

You pig made money in 2020 too?

[@navrasapictures3798]

Hi everyone. i learn alot from you. i am a vwap trader. means only vwap nothing else in my life. i just want to know one thing, if i trade with vwap should i follow trailing stop-loss or i just get out from trade below vwap. that it i want to know. thanks you in advance. any trader cab answer me. @chatwithtraders @ChatWithTradersPodcast

[@bonevays]

I have no idea, but I would backtest it and stick with the result.