Exploring The Power of Probability

[@StarTalk]

Find out more about Bitdefender’s two decades of unparalleled cybersecurity excellence: bitdefend.me/StarTalkTA

[@samanthanor332]

Is someone thinking about scamming bad actors for science fundraising yet?😂

[@frogz]

will this protect me from al jebra and isaac newton???

[@johnathanmartin1504]

You failed to address that if the probability is greater than zero then it WILL eventually happen given infinite time, no matter how tiny the probability. You should know better as a physicist, Neil. I love Star Talk but this one annoyed me a lot.

[@JR_App13gat3]

Why is this a thing?🤨🤨🤨 I would accept royalties... And I'm charitable...wtf.. I started a pay it forward movement..idk if you guys know that or not... I'm not greedy at all..🙄🤷 Way to judge a book by a cover.. You guys are dumb..😒🙄 Blackmailing...🤨🙄🤷

[@IshaqIbrahim3]

The level of authentication doesn't matter when it comes to the BIG GUYS. I heard some stories on how they did it. Here is one example. Title: Exposing The Flaw In Our Phone System. Timeline: 07:08 The kidnapping of Sheikha Latifa Timeline: 16:17 How I was able to spy on Linus’ phone Duration: 31:54 Channel: Veritasium@veritasium

[@LiliMayO765]

I like this subject. I once asked students to select the graph with a positive trend line out of a series of graphs I created using random values. Naturally, it's a trick question, but it shows how adept humans are at spotting patterns-even when they're not there.

[@yessopie]

But it is still possible for random values to contain a positive trend line. You have to actually calculate a linear regression on the random values to show that there isn't a trendline before you accuse your students of seeing something that isn't there.

[@Motocentrick]

How did you do that if you were a BOT

[@BrickTamlandOfficial]

i like that they brought on a cybersecurity person here. i think chuck brought up a good question about password managers. the problem with a master password is that it is the single point of failure. if your master password is somehow cracked or released in a breach then all your passwords will then be public. its good to keep your password vault offline and separate from machines that are connected to the internet. it is hard to use a vault though when the laptop is not able to access the internet.

[@jonathan_r_lee92]

Anyone and everyone, that uses the internet in any capacity, should watch this episode.

[@johnvassor3013]

I have worked with computer systems for over 40 years and I'am a great fan of StarTalk. So I will give some advice on how I keep my computer safe from outside invasions. One way to test the vulnerability of your password is to use a password recovery program with a large wordlist database. If the password program from a trusted computer company doesn't recover your password, then it is a good chance that an outside or online source will not as well. A computer protected by a finger print reader is another way, but can be vulnerable if a gifted hacker knows how to lift the fingerprint from the reader. The method I find to be the best is a computer system using a hand scanner and barcodes that you keep on you at all times. You can use long complex passwords without having to remember them. You just have to keep the barcodes very secure. A two-step execution process is good too, as long as no one clone your phone.

[@charlesiphone5765]

Thank you Tyson for reaffirming my beliefs of never blindly trusting so called "experts"

[@robwalker4548]

True but it has become way too common for people to believe BS from people with no expertise making bogus claims.

[@lineolsen4176]

Neil, your take on the 1 in 8 head explotion thing is stuck in my mind!!

[@arcs.]

So awesome having my own personal astrophysicist. Though the odds don't look good, I'm positive the rest of you will also find your own personal astrophysicist some day.

[@F1MX-y3j]

😂Someone on my level

[@joppadoni]

I love Gary O'Reilly, he is so good on this show..

[@frogz]

he has really grown on this show, he first came into it as an outsider and was the only 1 who did research for the episode so he actually had good questions and commentary, now he seems knowledgeable every week because he always researches the topic at hand!

[@jackiehering5229]

“What is life? A frenetic chase. What is life? An illusion. What is life? A shadow, a fiction. What is life? Life is a dream, and dreams are dreams “ Pedro Calderon de la Barca

[@petersage5157]

<a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="320">5:20</a> WOPR / Joshua: "A strange game. The only winning move is not to play."

[@JR_App13gat3]

No they are dumb...they should have blackmailed me after they gave me the money...they are just holding the process up 😂🤣 I went to the feds..😂🤣 We'll see 😂🤣 They are just hold up the process because i can accept royalties and I'm charitable..they have no leg up at all 😂🤣 I'm dealing with immature children 😂🤣 They are dealing with an actual literal genius 😂🤣 Call me a rat if you want...have you ever been blackmailed for a trillion dollars that your actually worth? No? 😂🤣

[@JeffBishop_KB3QMT]

I've always said, "Those big beautiful casinos weren't built on what people won."

[@Morganstein-Railroad]

We were taught Statistics at A level in my school (Dynevor Senior Comprehensive) with a teacher called doctorr Jowett. He was very interesting as a lecturer and got me interested in the subject. Good on you , Dr. Jowett. You were one of my favourite Teachers.

[@beefrick9957]

Wow. Great episode. The beginning part talking about how unlikely it is that we as a person exist was beautiful. And the second half, well I’ve never wanted to go back to using cash and ditching online shopping so fast.

[@peggysue457]

I studied probabilities and I still buy lotto tickets once or twice a month . . . I put money in savings too, but when I'm buying the lotto ticket, I'm buying a couple of days of dreaming about winning.

[@jmodified]

Same. I'm sure you'd find a lot of people knowledgeable about statistics who do the same. What they don't generally do is buy 100 tickets every week.

[@stellar3508]

Definitely a guest I would like to see again sometime

[@ChaitanyaShukla2503]

For us here in Maharashtra(India) Probablility, statistics, set theory, permutations and combinations, calculus were part of syllabus of which stat and sets were taught to anyone who completed 10th grade while rest were compulsory for those who elected to study maths(under science stream while for those who went to commerce didn't learn calculus) in 11 and 12th.

[@willmo1725]

What a timely episode. I m trying to calculate my risk for a specific, route on a bicycle. Then for a car on the same route, at the same time. Was cool show thanks.

[@nirvana131995]

Man Chuck is the best really love these more dialogue driven episodes.

[@lorispina5544]

Outstanding Best preparation ever

[@shakesrear7850]

I am alive against stupendous odds.

[@MalcolmValentine]

These 3 are so darn entertaining

[@JC-justchillin]

I was listening while doing boring data work. My output was severely impacted by many guffaws today.

[@OriginalYonta]

Just another banger. Keep up the good work guys.

[@Greenbambu78]

Probability is also used in predictive correlational different research fields (different fields of science), particularly when there is a strong correlation, as indicated by a high correlation coefficient. So yes, basic probability should be taught in high school. I didn't have my first statistics class until my second year of college. Counting mode, median, frequency, and frequency distribution, etc... were kind of fun part of grading...

[@ajswanepoel9083]

possibility takes the entire system into account and probability takes a node of a instance of the system into account

[@dspondike]

If you split a class in two and ask half the class to flip a coin 500 times and write down the answers and the other half to make up 500 answers, you can tell which is which. 😀

[@damirzeric1018]

Yes because the made up solutions will avoid having same side flipped several times which is actually going to happen and is likely for example: TTTTHHTHHH, ETC IS COMMON.

[@wjrasmussen666]

Lost the coin, give me another

[@1nFect3d1]

so, how far away would a magnet need to be in order to deflect all that bad mojo the sun shoots at you on the moon/mars/on a spaceship? (and how powerful does it need to be?)

[@randyzeitman1354]

Chuck says that’s out of the realm of numbers pretty good.

[@rickjames6867]

This lesson on analytics and risk assessment sure fits these times we are in. This is valuable information that should be absorbed by open minds who like to make a positive difference in the world.sometimes we have to put our emotions aside and let the math make the decision. Could make for a more educated and efficient American society.

[@jeffs6090]

I like apps that allow to only need your fingerprint to enter your account. Unfortunately, you still need to set it up with a password first, then add the biometric. So, a password hack could still get people in.

[@utopianna]

Odds may not appear to be the same for everyone. The more we observe outcomes without judgment of whether they are beneficial, benign or harmful, the more we will see an incredible number of outcomes that are mind-boggling. We are not able to affect outcome (or patterns if you prefer to call them), but when a pattern benefits us, we see it. The older I get, the more patterns I see and some have meaning to me and some do not, but the relationship can be a blind spot to the wondrous arrangement of patterns. Humans have a habit of seeing only what benefits them. Seeing a $100 bill on the sidewalk and it’s luck, meant to be. Seeing a pattern in nature that is worth far more, such as a cypress tree next to the $100 bill, is a witness which we may fail to reflect upon. How that beautiful tree came to be. Life is against the odds. Seeing is against the odds. Only… they’re really not.

[@supernova1163]

Wow Startalk has almost 4 million subscribers

[@angielott83]

Neil and Chuck make SUCH a good team

[@Aluran]

We are so fortunate and unfortunate to be alive maybe it just depends of the era

[@aja749]

So if I am already smoking what's the probability of not getting cancer if I stop now?

[@twostate7822]

Not only are the parking lots at Vegas casinos usually full, but in recent years they have started charging $20+ for parking that used to be free. As far as not understanding gambling odds, there are plenty of KZbin videos promoting various betting schemes on games like roulette and craps that claim to make money for the bettors. These betting schemes invariably involve making a number of offsetting bets even though each of the individual bets have negative expectations, or some variation of the Martingale betting system which only work until you don't have money to make the maximum table bet, or your next bet is greater than the maximum table bet.

[@walternullifidian]

I really like this channel, and I listen almost every day, but jeez, does there really have to be an ad every 2 minutes!?

[@pogz1]

its good to see chuck... it calms me down.

[@WilliamAldridge-c3s]

Thank God for Fine Tuning.

[@SiqueScarface]

I first came in contract to this idea via my beloved Polish SF writer Stanislaw Lem and his collection "A Perfect Vacuum" (1971), where one of the fictional books concerns the improbability of Life. (And I have to admit that Stanislaw Lem spoiled me to most of American SF, because to me, it is mainly silly, and I can't feel the same level of excitement as Neil deGrasse Tyson seems to have for it.)

[@JC-justchillin]

wow, thank you for turning me onto this writer!

[@alswedgin9274]

<a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="900">15:00</a> We got taught probability in secundairy school (not sure of the equivalent in america but you're about 14-16yrs old at that time depending on the direction of education you took..'human sciences' or 'exact sciences'.

[@alswedgin9274]

You can not take maths here without being introduced to 'probability'. In fact you can not take maths here and not be exposed to all branches of 'number-play" fe. complex numbers.. You get maths here and it will introduce you at the least to all the branches. This is why i often comment on things happening in 'Murica: i blame the educational system.

[@randyzeitman1354]

Nice one chuck.

[@derekschneider8922]

Algebra, to teach you’ll carry “weapons of math instruction” (movie).

[@gedaiusq]

BitDefender - Romanians in line of defence 💪💪💪

[@anju2592]

Was just reading the manga Sakamoto Days. “The chances of life emerging on earth were 1 in 10^40000. Equivalent to the chances of putting the parts of a watch in a bag and shaking it and having them reassemble [into a gun].”

[@Mr.PeabodyTheSkeptic]

My passwords are written down, locked in a safe, several protocols to get in the house. And good luck reading my handwriting.

[@JC-justchillin]

Ditto, I can barely read what I wrote.

[@huldu]

One thing I learned early on in life was to never challenge people to do something because there is always someone out there who will succeed. Until that moment you're just lucky because nobody has paid any attention to you. With that said it would be nice with something else beside passwords because they're so weak in themselves.

[@robertwhitemoto]

Oh Neil... I've never agreed with you more than on this video. Well done !

[@drwho7545]

I was just thinking about this today. There is math involved with this stuff. There are exceptional infinities, a multitude of them and they cancel other episilon improbable. Also there is strange attractors involved. Perhaps figgenbalms constant is involved. The weird math of infinities puzzled the best of them like George cantor. And who was that guy who created bells inequality which has to do with quantum mechanics. That figures also. Going to be hard to prove it though.

[@edwardcalvet]

This was an awesome episode, thank you for the solid info.

[@brianjones6500]

State Lottery access is not available in areas where people have wealth; it's only found in poor communities. Essentially it's a tax on the poor and those who play it don't know that the system is the lion in the grass.

[@Zupson96]

<a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="2664">44:24</a> Gary like a true brit asking for tea

[@thunderlight.1111]

Stupendous odd saved in memory TY.

[@TMatti]

The probability of this video coming out while I was talking with my friends about probability was indeed very low… but it happened. Video explaining itself before I even watch it.

[@jensonee]

thanks, i'll start using a pw mnger.

[@FishareFriendsNotFood972]

"Jerry & Marge Go Large" is a great and heartwarming movie about how a retiree cracked a lottery and figured out how to play it with guaranteed wins. Anyone who enjoys probability would love it! 🙂

[@epicswirl]

Have I been pwned is a great website to check if your email or passwords have been leaked. As a software engineer, I think everyone should use it.

[@huldu]

I always assumed that many of those sites track what people are writing in and then saving it in a huge database, basically giving them your passwords. I know that's paranoia talking but still, I'd never write any of my passwords on a site that I am not trying to log in to.

[@epicswirl]

@ That site is made by Microsoft engineers and doesn’t track your passwords. It doesn’t have info to link to your email. It gets the information from leaks. If it knows your password, then so do a lot worse people.

[@YesterdaysDeadTodayOnlyExists]

So fascinating

[@seanmostert4213]

<a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="644">10:44</a> "We are so good at putting order on things even when order is not there", absolutely, take a dumb idea and watch a whole bunch of brilliant people show how smart they are at finding ways to say this dumb idea works because we have this theory or that one that supports most of the dumb idea, when at the same time we scratch our heads and say, we still can't figure out why it's not working?!? I'm referring to the embarrassing situation where some turkey said "black holes" in a conference somewhere and everyone jumped on board with the curiosity and intrigue of it, and we put our best people on it to work out what a black hole is, because we've never seen one but it must be real, it couldn't possibly be something as simple as a funnel...which can have an accretion disk and a black void at the centre and an event horizon where the curvature of space is so sharp as it goes down the funnel that not even light can escape...

[@ivogacina9710]

Neil, you are right about most people going to casino to "make" money, but there are ones who go for fun and what they losse see it like fee for the show, also there are adicted people who even if they know probablilty they cannot help themselves. Same with smoking, i persobalt knew people who wont quit knowing the odds , thinking that life i would get without smoking its not worted.

[@normadenys8089]

You are all so funny , thanks 😂🙏🏼💫

[@TheLuminaryCollective]

<a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="7">0:07</a> so without the odds, should it still be cherished?

[@My-Pal-Hal]

EXCEPT... Things like, maybe the fault line on the Washington Coast. That has hit the Jackpot now and then. The "Probability" gets better that it will hit Again. And the Probability gets BETTER (or worse) the longer it doesn't hit. Because the probability isn't if, but When. Because it's probably gonna happen. And the longer it doesn't. The better the probability it will. .... it's the ultimate lottery 😳

[@hollowmew]

my daily dose of astrophysics, goodafternoon Neil

[@normadenys8089]

Would you give us a good reading list on probability

[@al-yashailhaamwilliams8969]

I took a course in Bayesian probability in graduate school. I now make all decisions by flipping a coin.

[@thebushmaster0544]

@@al-yashailhaamwilliams8969 real

[@jeffs6090]

Two Face

[@churn_diesel]

It blew my mind that statistics were invented/discovered after calculus. I like to think I live my life by constantly calculating the probability of certain outcomes. Maybe that’s also why I don’t gamble except to play basic strategy with blackjack for free drinks lol.

[@Mr12Relic]

<a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="304">5:04</a> The moment Neil realizes Chuck is more of an expert on the topic

[@ivogacina9710]

Its not hard to make human being, its gard to make 'you' ,but have in mind that cosmos does not care about 'you'

[@JC-justchillin]

it is so cool that both things are simultaneously true.

[@OrlandoMelo-om4zr]

누군가가 뉴턴에게 미적분학의 개념을 가르쳤을 가능성이 있을까? 아니면 이 역설은 미래를 바꾸기 위해 만들어졌을 가능성이 있을까?😀

[@TheSentientmeat]

"Let me sum these numbers together and divide (by the count of them) and see if that MEANS anything"

[@jrw512]

Wonderful show...... and scary.

[@JimWilliams-s8z]

NDT could recruite all the top scientists in the world and task them with building a single chaperonin in a cell from scratch and none would have a clue where to start much less provide a engineering schematic for it! A living cell is made of millions of such protien machines so to muse each one mindlessly swirled itself into specified functionality is the most epic joke ever foisted on humanity.

[@JennaRamone]

Chuck is getting smarter good boy chuck

[@tkermi]

My late dad always wanted me to change his phone PIN code from default 0000. But he always insisted 1234 😅 RIP 🥺

[@huldu]

When I was young I had no problem remembering a lot of passwords these days it's so tedious. There has to be a better way to log in *everywhere* beside a password, afaik I'm the only version of myself so basically I'm a password ready to be used. I hope one day we won't need to remember so much stuff.

[@tkermi]

@huldu Yeah, for sure. These password manager programs or sometimes called "password vaults" also meantioned in this video are one option. But I'm sure we get more advanced options in future. Alredy now when using my phone to log in many apps or authentication functions have biometrics as a second option. I often choose that and have both of my thumb prints saved so no matter what I'm doing it's fast and easy to press and confirm with one of them.

[@FightBabylon_]

👏🏿 great discussion! it is sad, statistics should be in the curriculum

[@jamieparsons6413]

Like 3 times I thought Neil's doorknob in the background was something on my phone and I tried to wipe it away. 🤦🏼‍♀️ the probability I'll do that again next episode... 100%. 😉

[@jpdj2715]

What's even more remarkable is that you descend from the earliest life forms - your ancestry goes back a billion years

[@morisn]

<a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="1950">32:30</a> - Gentlemen: MFA - Multi-Factor Authentication. Use it if you don't yet.

[@danielt91]

A small remark on difference between something being unique and valuable. Just because something is unique (and existing against all odds), doesn't automatically make it valuable. I might be unique, yet I'm completely mediocre human being and generally not worth much. 😊

[@geoffreyrhine8210]

Probability... "If the p is low, the null must go."

[@timmy2310]

100% chance of life outside our planet

[@elbersed]

I think that Niel’s hope that providing people the information about probability will keep them from gambling is a bit naive. We need to do more than educate people we need to address the vulnerabilities that cause people to gamble despite the knowledge that the odds are stacked against them.

[@vincewatkins8439]

Probability is an illusion. The only thing that CAN happen is the only thing that DOES happen. To include your belief in probability.

[@farhankhann952]

Neil explains everything so simply I never miss any videos of u ,I love you guys stay blessed ❤️😊

[@godgamersgaming4103]

Neil always does it best

[@a.bodhichenevey1601]

I am horrible at mathematics, but aspire to learn about human neurobiology. Humans engage in two forms of cognitive errors. There is the cognitive error: Type One or False Positives where we believe something is real which isn't. This is mistaking the wind blowing the grass as a lion hunting us. The other cognitive error is Type Two or False Negative where we don't believe in something that is real. This would be the Paleolithic Human who dismisses the moving grass as just the wind blowing it when it is an active lion stalking him or her. Depending on the actual threat that we believe is real but isn't or isn't real that is, determines the risk.

[@rolstonholas333]

When Neil said would you allow me a conspiracy theory, I would've died laughing if he had said that he was a flat earther

[@H53.]

Been using the same variations of the same password since 2009.

[@Monita-c7h]

There’s value in the recreation, culture and community within casinos. Everyone knows they’re going to lose all.

[@cheapskatepanic]

My daughter has ELECTED to take statistics next year...her senior year.

[@keithjohnsonYT]

She said, “We probably won’t end up together forever!” I said, “Not with THAT attitude!” 🤷‍♂️

[@xr_xharprazoraxtra5428]

<a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="2359">39:19</a> - "Hey, i brought one too , CHEERS OwO/💣"

[@tugcebalta86]

Keanu played "game" making the school loan excuse? Come on come on Keanu! Come on, please! I must have taken back my eyes.

[@alswedgin9274]

There are tribes that don't just look at the grass..they look at the entire environment to dicover whether there is a lion or something to hunt. Would you say they possesed the knowledge of calculus but without the numbers? There are also tribes that hunt in swamps and use the sky to find their way home..did they have the skill of geometry without the numbers?

[@alswedgin9274]

Apologies for the bad spelling.

[@missh1774]

<a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="1320">22:00</a> This is like that Cloud Atlas movie. Yeah, of course a person cannot show up again duh ... 😏 The spirit is unbiased about the body it chooses to exist in. That's a probability that could possibly be made... Such as the probability of befriending a character like Chuck in another life... except without any speculation about gender, race, class, or country of birth. I think it's possible.

[@radusansebes3517]

A good talk with a briliant Romanian :)

[@Blackmamba54585]

I love getting high and watch startalk lol

[@marvhollingworth663]

If Gary's parents existing & having a kid is a given, I calculate Gary's chance of being born was 1/70,368,744,177,664. I used the fact that each parent passes on 23 chromosomes & each chromosome has a 50% chance of being inherited (discounting the possibility of an abnormal chromosomal anomaly, for example Down's syndrome.) Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but you will have to explain your calculation.

[@QuantumJJean]

It starts at <a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="1226">20:26</a>.

[@neilfleming2787]

I don't agree with the thing about the Lottery. People win it every time there is a draw. If those people had not played it then how would they feel if they were playing numbers that they feel are lucky for them (I'm not saying there any such thing as lucky numbers, but most people play the same numbers all the time). Yes, the 'probability' of winning is low but I look at it as a risk assessment, I am risking some money for the probability of winning a lot of money.