FED Rate Cuts Won't Stop US Housing Crash

[@alotero6498]

Good material, thank you.

[@acrewell]

Thanks for watching! Glad you enjoyed it

[@sociolocomtsac]

Prices have been unsustainable for a couple of years now, but prices have been steady because there just isn't enough supply. I think only rising unemployment will trigger this decline and it's headed that direction. Thanks for the video.

[@acrewell]

Thanks for watching and leaving a comment!

[@hliang4]

Very different market conditions now compared to 08, home builders and housing starts as well as average listings

[@acrewell]

There's no doubt that the supply and demand fundamentals in the housing market are healthier than they were in 2007. A lot of the issues we're likely to see in the coming years will come from the imbalances of artificially low interest rates and stimulus policies that corrupted the natural price discovery of the housing market mainly through inflation and cheap money.

[@SaveManWoman]

No one is stupid to buy homes that appreciated superficially by 60% in 4 years when we didn’t have same in 200 years.

[@acrewell]

I'm not so sure. Many homes are still selling despite he price increases in recent years. Even though the market's overpriced, people have legitimate reasons to buy homes. Bottom line is it's your money, and if you can afford to buy it then it's your call to make.

[@SaveManWoman]

@@acrewell and they will all be on market in short sale I seen this dance three times in my life. It’s how you don’t get to keep anything!

[@acrewell]

I'm sure we'll see more distress in the residential market in the coming years. It's always easier to learn from other people's mistakes, but many people need to experience it themselves before they learn the lesson.

[@PurpleGoddess24]

So a home that is listed for $425k should be now or soon be around $265k basically $160,000 less if you want buyers

[@acrewell]

Thanks for watching and leaving a comment! Not sure I understand the question. Real estate prices rise and fall across many years. Prices peaked in 2007 and bottomed out in 2012 during the last cycle, so these dynamics take several years to work themselves out.

[@mrabooks_at_amazon]

Good analysis 👍 👏

[@acrewell]

Thanks for watching! Glad you enjoyed

[@gulnazshubina9379]

I see a lot of comments about "crash bros" here that look like all of these RE agents getting so mad about the truth lol... btw when I see this term "crash bros" in the comment, it is clear to me who wrote that comment lol... Personally, I think we need more channels like these that will help spread more truth to buyers and sellers so they wont be brainwashed by RE agents and mainstream media anymore

[@acrewell]

So true!! Appreciate the kind words - thanks for watching

[@jonathantaylor6926]

I have been a full on "Crash bro" for years now... but I am now starting to doubt myself. I guess I still do think RE is going to correct but im starting to think that wont happen until 2035. Homes/rent have been horrifically unaffordable for years now, yet nothing happens. Hell, even mortgage rates hitting damn near 8% didn't even matter.

[@acrewell]

Thanks for watching and leaving a comment! I know what you mean. One concept that helped me understand the timing of the real estate cycle is the idea of the '18 year real estate cycle'. It's been studied extensively and there's a lot of material about it online, but I don't think this framework receives nearly enough mainstream attention for how useful it is.

[@spencerj4467]

Keep cherry picking data and listings. Won’t help you or any of your watchers out in the long run

[@acrewell]

I don't know what any of that means. I am sharing macroeconomic data on a national level, and I'm citing all my sources.

[@user-zk6fc3dw9e]

What is your timeline for a nationwide residential real estate crash, and by how much? Crash bros have been foretelling of a residential real estate crash since 2020 (and many even before that). In 2024 prices are stable or still going up in 90%+ of the 50 largest metro areas in the country. At some point KZbin needs better rules and policies on doom channels (not saying this is one of those) that serve no other purpose than getting clicks and ad revenue. Remember, if your favorite crash bro is wrong year after year after year, you lose, but they win from ad revenue.

[@acrewell]

lol "Crash Bros" - I've never heard that one, but it's amazing and so true. Don't take this as investment advice, because I've been wrong about timing in the past myself as well. If I had to guess though, I would guess that rate cuts prop up housing prices temporarily and prices move sideways through 2025, some markets up some markets down. But as we get into 2026 I could see a market top and 4 year period from 2026-2030 where values decline about 20 - 25%. But I think the values will decline mostly from inflation and not necessarily the prices themselves. Like your house might still be worth "$300K", but that price exists in a market where everything costs 25% more in dollars. There's so much debt in the system that inflation is just an easier way out of all this, and so the politicians tend to favor it. Also has the benefit of not being well understood by voters, who often don't see it for what it really is. Thanks for watching