First Commercial Real Estate and Then Residential will CRASH!

[@DavidParker-uu2wo]

Investors are feeling the squeeze now that the market isn't a one way ticket to success

[@MichaelAlex-bt1pn]

The Fed's oversight has ignored the real struggles of everyday Americans in the housing market

[@AlexMorgan-ti6nv]

Engaging in these discussions is good. I've personally seen returns and hedged against surprises, netting half a million dollars

[@MaxWell-pp9zs]

How do you tell if your result is based on your decisions or mere luck

[@AlexMorgan-ti6nv]

good question, i attribute this to research which was the challenging part leading to Emily ava milligan, a top fund manager made this result from a hundred grand, rather than luck

[@MartinJackson-yq6bl]

I copied her name and pasted it into my browser and her website popped up. It's hard to find examples like yours to reference, thanks for the share

[@secarl]

Michael, do you think delinquency will get bad, bad, like early 1990s, or just bad like 2008?

[@michaeldouville690]

What a great comment! The 1990's were terrible for Commercial Delinquency and were the root cause of the S&L Crisis. Great analogy to Small and Regional Banks of today. The Commercial debacle was so bad the RTC or Resolution Trust Corporation was formed to liquidate all of the bad debt and non-viable property. So bad, that most S&L's are gone; could this be the death nell for small banks??? There are so many reasons why the S&L Crisis morphed into such an enormous problem, but I was much younger, but I remember crazy developments approved on tax relief. Congress changed the rules and no more tax relief! You make a very good comparison; projects approved on the assumption of Historically low Interest Rates become non-viable when the Historically low rates (As in Historical-never this low before!) start to NORMALIZE. The change is not transitory as in an economic slowdown that will recover. Rather the change is PERMANENT! Risk Management failure at its most evident for lenders and developers alike. So, to answer the question. There is a Lag Effect. Your Risk is nominal until it is your turn at the new financing counter......the change is permanent and as such there will be many casualties. This could look a lot like 1990. Fortunes will be lost; Fortunes will be made! Michael Douville

[@nick2cool4yourmother]

Macro edge res on Twitter made a post about 100 N Charles in Baltimore a skyscraper with 32% occupancy being put up for auction starting at 1.5 million is it possible for these building not to even sell for that amount possibly below the asking bid?

[@michaeldouville690]

Thank you for your comments. I do not believe anyone would disagree that Baltimore is in trouble and has been for a very long time. This is a Signpost that the RE Cycle is completing, much as a systemic bank failure ie. Credit Suisse. There is so much Main Stream Media talk that the Office Buildings can be converted to living quarters. For the most part, the "Math" just does not support such a conversion and further, maintenance and rehab is so expensive, the buildings may ultimately be sold for their land value less cost of demolition. Just imagine the LOSSES someone will be taking! Yes, it is contagious! Thank you for such a great comment. .well thought out. Michael Douville

[@omarthegreat4179]

Keep up the good work

[@michaeldouville690]

Thank you for your comment. It is an unfortunate fact that entering a major Financial Investment at the wrong time, even with all the right intentions, can set an investor back for a very long time, maybe decades. That said, PATIENCE, is the hardest asset to find sometimes. I am on the sidelines; I have been on the sidelines; we will all be rewarded soon.

[@Invest4Cash-Flow]

Miami is still crazy

[@michaeldouville690]

Yes, Real Estate like any other asset class is not Homogenous: when the Bond Market broke, Treasuries performed better than Hi Yield, Banks need Treasuries for Reserves and Collateral. Miami, and Phoenix will fare much better than other regional Markets and of course there are always sub-markets where supply and demand still work. Those investments that have extremely low leverage or no leverage at all will be fine. In the GFC, the Real Estate did not take the investor down, it was the LEVERAGE on the Real Estate that bankrupt them. That is again the case. The Infinite Return Strategy works brilliantly until cycle completion, then CRASH! Cycles always complete and start again. The next cycle will bring Fortunes to those that can ride the next wave.