Thank you for your comment. Melody Wright's data indicated the same trend.... upper price homes were selling, and lower price were not. When the market for a product slows, price reductions are inevitable. The Cycle for RE is long and nothing happens quickly. However, I agree with you, the retracement will become more apparent moving forward. Michael Douville

Thank you for your comment. Yes, that is certainly a possibility. Excellent out of the box thought. I have been following other research and more than a few have pointed out that Inflation can come in 3 waves...the 2nd wave is the worst. Inflation is also one of those data points that seem to have been manipulated to portray a much better narrative, using the original method from the '80's, Inflation would have been significantly higher. A mean, nasty, protracted RECESSION is a 100% cure for Inflation! Very good comment. Michael Douville

@michaeldouville690 take a look at venezuela currency over last 5 years. It's crashed. Now look at their stock market over 5 years. Straight up. It's a melt-up caused by money printing. US debt will hit 50T in 10 years.

@@mike9132 Thank you for the great comment. Yes, Venezuela has terrible inflation; add Turkey to the list. When the currency collapses, only real things survive. Good businesses ie stocks, natural resources, farms, forests, and my FAVORITE, real estate. Hugo Stinnes is the 1920's went into massive debt and bought real assets and hard currency. When hyperinflation arrived, it wiped out the currency and Stinnes paid back loans for pennies...the hard assets rose in value and Stinnes became the richest man in Germany. Could that happen here? It would be a stretch, but certainly inflation would benefit those hedged......so, why not follow in their footsteps? Sacrifice and save the downpayment...a great buying opportunity is coming! Michael Douville

Thank you for your comments. Everything changes and everything stays the same. The workforce that has enjoyed the explosion in new construction ramp their life styles up as their Income increases. The Cycle slows, then stops. Thousands of workers slow then stop their spending......the Cycle repeats! Michael Douville

Hi John. Great comment. I could not agree with you more. The belief in honest elections and fair and equal treatment by the courts is paramount to any society. There is no excuse for distorting the will of the people. The elected officials are charged with managing the unelected bureaucrats and working for the benefit of the citizens of their locality, their state, and of course our Nation. It seems out elected officials have demoted the welfare of the citizens of our country and elevated the concerns of everyone else above them!

There's the more fundamental problem in Arizona: Where is the water? Never mind drinking water, power plants require water to function, and unless there are very large investments in photovoltaics, which I do not see happening, I doubt AZ can provide the energy capacity needed for the growth they have been having. I think it should be obvious why AZ requires so much energy. Letting the Saudis pump unlimited groundwater isn't helping

@@Demopans5990 Thank you for your comments. Yes, water always is a concern. Here is Phoenix, we are blessed with 2 watersheds that have never been in drought at the same time, even in pre-history according to researchers. Phoenix also has 6 man-made lakes for boating, fishing, and of course water reserves and power generation. They are miles and miles long. Phoenix also has the Palo Verde Nuclear Power plant. Phoenix also has a "Business Friendly" legislature actively encouraging manufacturing and distribution as well as IT Start-ups. I agree tough times are coming and no one will be immune, but some areas of the Nation will do better than others. There will be Inflation coming which means hedging and a RE Buy point is coming soon. Time to prepare. Michael Douville

That maybe true but you’d still be a fool to buy this late in the cycle.

Thank you for your comments. California is an amazing place of huge extremes. Statistically, you are probably correct. However, what area and what data are you referring to? San Francisco house prices have dropped significantly, the 8 counties of Northern California have declined as has employment, Los Angeles is up, San Diego is flat. The huge discrepancies of values in California from the pretty poor to the extravagantly Rich do distort the statistics. The Index known as the All-Transactions House Price Index of FRED is a good index, but not as good as the Median Price. The All Transaction is an INDEX! The data is "Estimated using sales prices and appraisal data." ESTIMATED and APPRAISAL DATA. However, each of us is an individual and have individual criteria for investing. If you feel the California Market is heading higher, rents are increasing, and tenants are of high quality and plentiful, then we have very divergent views. I am charged with protecting my clients Capital and earning a return on investment. At the moment, my discipline finds most markets in California uninvestable. Michael Douville

@@michaeldouville690 It seems to all boil down to "A Tale of Two Cities" Rich can pay cash and so that is one tale, the other is the tale of a dying middle class and impoverished desolate lower poor class.

@@Notaslave1961 Thank you for the great comment. Yes, that has been the case for centuries. The Rich are those that can control assets that appreciate over time. Inflation, even "Benign" inflation of 2.58%, which is the cumulative inflations over the last 20 years will destroy unprotected purchasing power by over 66% in 20 years. Not so "Benign" Inflation will destroy fixed incomes, pensions, annuities, bank reserves, and the most vulnerable of our society living in the Welfare State will be devastated. I have been advocating rental real estate, even just 2 rentals, to mitigate some of the effects of runaway Government spending. There is a window coming to allocate Capital, but not yet. The Business and Real Estate Cycle need to complete first...then those that have been left behind can catch up! Michael Douville

Thank you for the great comment. I can see that scenario unfolding! Already the FDIC has admitted to 66 Banks that are in trouble over their CRE loans, this spills over into many foreign banks that lent into the CRE Market for yield during the crazy negative interest rate policy of Europa. Same with Japanese banks looking for yield. The viability of the Asset changes and jeopardizes the Capital Stack. That is already underway. The Real Estate Cycle is for the ASSET Class not just Housing. The CRE is leading the way, Housing will follow. I have been advising waiting for the entry points. Michael Douville

Thank you for the comment. Pretty sad! When I was young, the elected officials were entrusted to take care of the people of the United Sates and to operate in their best interest. Now, it seems the concern of those elected officials is anyone BUT the citizens of the US. Their base case is to retain power and get re-elected. It has become increasingly difficult to trust some data and I find myself questioning the data set. Much of this should not be on the Radar! Michael Douville

Thank you for your comment. Hi Steve, thank you for your kind words. It is very confusing for Investors and Buyers alike. The RE Market has performed beautifully and no one wants the Cycle to end. The narrative of course is everything is fine.....however, late-stage signposts have appeared...there will be a new burst of lower credit scores, lower underwriting standards, less downpayment, stated Income, etc for most of the Federal loans like FHA and VA. It attracts the last group which has been denied loans or are of dubious creditworthiness. This is the last group to buy and the first to default as they are the last ones in with little margin. However, long term, I am a huge BULL...just be careful..... Michael Douville

Thank you for the comment. Yes, everywhere I look, the Data has to be really checked...'Seasonally Adjusted", "Annually Seasonally Adjusted", "Birth-Death Model"........however, following the same data set is extremely important; I have followed the US Median House sales price with FRED for years. There is some merit in the possibility the data can be temporarily distorted by Foreign buying in the upper end and Trophy Properties coming to market; both would drive the median price up. We will know shortly....time to be very cautious. Michael Douville

Thank you for your comments. Jesse Livermore, considered one of the greatest stock Investors making his fortune during the Roaring 20's, and our current Investor Guru: Warren Buffet have something in common that seems to have survived the ages: PATIENCE! Watch the Supply and the Local Employment; not the "News", but are manufacturing plants opening or closing, retail opening or closing, watch for "For Sale" and "For Rent" signs which indicate longer days on Market. However, Investments are still available; if the property has value and is generating current CAP Rates, then it should be considered. In this environment, s severe correction needs to be factored in as a potential possibility and if so, how will the property perform. You are already ahead on 95% of other Investors because you realize that we always operate in a "Constantly Changing Economic Environment"! Michael Douville

@@michaeldouville690 I appreciate your reply, Mr. Douville and can see your perspective. Still, I see many conflicting arguments. I completely agree with the “news” as the media both doesn’t want to cause a panic, as well is politically motivated to keep this current administration in since they’re clearly left leaning. That being said, I’m curious about your opinion on my situation. My wife and I sold our home Q4 2022 and currently live with her parents while home hunting. We have purchased land and plan to build, but are seeing steep prices in building, but is still more affordable than built homes. We are in Indiana. Would you wait to build or build ASAP? If you feel waiting is best, what do you feel I should look for as a sign to begin the process in building on my land? Thank you.

@@TheRealGeorgeLane Great Comments and a very thoughtful question. First, I do not know enough about you and your wife to offer any reliable information. Second, all Real Estate Markets are Regional and then Local. There are markets that can easily change with employment opportunities, boundaries for school districts, Parishes, synagogues, town lines, Freeway access, parking......wow! You name it, it can affect a local market. Taken in a Macro sense, then trends appear, and I believe the Real Estate Asset Class is Completing its Cycle and trending down. You mentioned you already own the land, so the Real Estate is already purchased, and I assume with the proceeds from your Home Sale in 2022. These funds would be considered "Seasoned Capital" not new Capital. In other words, the Capital would be at RISK regardless of whether in the asset you sold(home)or the asset(land) you purchased. Your question may be: when is a good time to build? That is outside my models and outside my knowledge of your area. However, a severe Recession KILLS INFLATION. It also reduces demand for framing crews and concrete. During the GFC, skilled labor lost jobs and suffered reduced work hours. Many workers were grateful for the work; often times more experienced workers were available than during the recent building frenzy. Just a few thoughts! Michael Douville

Thank you for the comments. A huge buying opportunity is coming, but not yet. Stay tuned. Michael Douville

The Median Home Price of Homes sold in the US per FRED peaked Q4 of 2022 at $442,600. The latest data from Fred is $420,800 for Q1 of 2024. The Metric clearly shows the peaks are in...I have no idea what data you are siting. FRED is easily accessible...I follow thew same data consistently not switching to make a point.........You can check FRED Median Sales Price for Homes sold in the US. However, you do not need to believe me or my research. You are welcome to form your own opinion and act accordingly. The inventory is rising...lots to choose from..... Michael Douville

​@@michaeldouville690 I'm using data from FRED. Median sales prices of existing homes by month. It is on their website, KZbin won't allow me to post the link

Thank you for your comment. If you are just starting to follow the narrative, I can see where it might confuse you. However, the only metric that is trending higher is the Case Shiller which is an average and is a very lagging metric. Should you understand the internals of the Metric, then you would understand that as higher priced homes are sold, then the "AVERAGE" would trend higher, NOT the median! Foreign investors invest in the DOW when there is turmoil such as war in Europe, War in the Middle East, Heightened tensions in Taiwan and Korea. They also buy very expensive prime real estate which if you would think about it, would raise the "Average: home price. However, you are welcome to ignore the metrics and invest to your hearts content. Michael Douville

Thank you for the comment. Tax Deed Sale would be wonderful if you were able to successfully bid on these properties. The properties coming to market are often sold privately; they are rare finds that go into Family Trusts and Foundations. There will be a time coming soon where tax deeds may be a very good way to acquire good rentals; having cash and good credit will serve an Investor Well. Michael Douville

Thank you for the comment. You are correct! There are some pretty nice vacation homes coming to market, and some are having a hard time selling! First time home buyers rightfully complain at the cost of financing. However, cabin owners (Second Home Buyers) get charged 1-1.5% more interest and fees are higher. This is going to cramp some styles. That said, the other side is the desire to "Get out of the City". So, a classic demand destruction via the Fed....plenty of Demand, but not enough Income! The solution is discounting!!! Your Silver should come in handy soon! Michael Douville

Thank you for the comment. The Warn Notices that Employers are required to file prior to layoffs are rising in all 50 States indicating Employment is going to get much worse in the next 60-90 days. Time will tell. Michael Douville

Great comments. Hi John. I remember the Tranches of 1000 homes sold in bulk to Wall Street. I am sure you are correct in that will probably repeat. In the meanwhile, you are correct again that although Main Street will be frozen out of the Bulk Buys, they can certainly improve their Financial Position by waiting a bit and taking advantage of the Distress that is sure to come. Great thoughts as usual! Best, Michael Douville

@@michaeldouville690 Thanks Michael, I know of several large insurance company boards of directors raising cash right now in order to scoop up deals in the coming commercial real estate market.

Very good comment. You are correct; when there is trouble in the Economy, lenders are reluctant to lend to anyone except the very best. This tells us to protect your Credit, get out of Debt, secure your Income Streams, and SAVE, SAVE, Save...... Michael Douville

Thank you for the comment. One would hope something productive could be found to convert that 44-story high-rise. Just the cost to maintain is $millions. Storage could be a possibility. There is talk of converting to Apartments, but usually the plumbing stacks, the elevators, etc. need to reconfigured at a cost prohibitive amount. Good thought! Michael Douville

Thank you for the great comment. I agree with you; the Economy is slowing. The Media seems to want to ignore the facts, however, as much as the Administration is spending to offset the declines, the Cycles will Complete. There are other cycles besides the RE Cycle; Liquidity, Interest Rates, Employment, all that have to resolve the excesses. It will be Brutal, of course, but after the Cycles bottom, they will start again. Michael Douville

@@michaeldouville690 I don't believe the cycle will start again as we know it. I don't believe we'll run out of fossil fuels in our lifetime, or even that of our children or even their children. But baring some technological miracle it will get more and more expensive (in fossil fuels) to mine resources. If you haven't read up on REINDEER ON ST. MATTHEW ISLAND, you want to familiarize yourself with it. Compounding the problem a lower ratio of energy mined from energy, climate change is creating weather that will destroy what we've built higher than before and that too will continue to get worse. So 1.) Less energy mined for energy input 2) more energy needed to secure farming and structures. The best decades for humans was between 1950 and say 2000. I extrapolate from that too. Physicls tells me I shouldn't. who knows! I count myself lucky to have been born in 1961. Cheers!

Last few year in my city the amazon van all over the place in convoys and for the last month hardly see one here in there.

@@GTB-1984 Thank you for the comment. The data shows Savings are being depleted and Credit Card debt is at historic levels while banks charge onerous interest. No demand destruction for Credit cards. The data also confirms your thoughts: retail is in trouble. 70% of our Economy is consumers...what does that tell you? Michael Douville

@@GTB-1984 Yep, the truth is right out in the open. But few pay attention.

Thank you for your comment. The Government Data has been suspect for a while. The jobs report has almost a monthly revision, always worse than reported. So, yes, I think every part-time job counts. Work 3 part-time jobs, counted three times! Michael Douville

Thank you for the comment: Real Estate is an Asset Class, but also varies by region. DC and Phoenix have excellent long-term growth potential; however, no one will be immune from the coming Cycle Completion. Markets that have gotten ahead of themselves like Austin and many Florida markets could experience severe retracement. While you wait, raise Cash, quit spending, pay off Debt, and protect your Credit and Employment. Michael Douville

@michaeldouville690 in 2 months all my consumer debt will be paid off . It took me about 3 years

Thank you for the comment. Yes the Administration is spending $1 Trillion Dollars every 100 days....the Debt of course will stifle the Economy. believe the slowdown will become evident very shortly, probably well before the election. Keep saving, pay down or eliminate debt, and protect your credit. You should be well rewarded. Michael Douville

It has been a long wait for house prices to drop. Been saving for years, always thought prices are to high. We have no depth. Thanks for your videos/ content.

Thank you for your comment. I not only think so, but I have also not deployed any New Capital since Q2 of2022....almost 2 years. I love to get paid, but not at the expense of my clients. Soon, I will tell you it is time to buy, but not yet. Michael Douville

Thank you for your comment. Your home is way different than a discretionary Investment purchase. The value of Home Ownership is immense and the security a home of your own provides for your family is sometimes incalculable. If there are more waves of Inflation on their way, real assets such as Houses should do very well. Michael Douville

Thank you for your comments. It may take 2-4 years to completely resolve the excesses. 4 years is more the norm. The Carnage will be spectacular! Those that bought too late, will be under stress and many will lose the property particularly if Unemployment rises to where the charts say it is possible. That said, there are always Winners and Losers. It is ALWAYS that way. I started with nothing, and we sacrificed. The opportunity to succeed is certainly still in play, however, no one guarantees success and there is not a trophy for everyone playing. Michael Douville

Thank you for your comments. There certainly are many variables; Baby Boomers have only so much time left, and the next generation moves up. Yes, there will be many homes vacated by Boomers. Lots of those homes are in the wrong location as demographic shifts continue. The National Association of Builders is estimating that RIGHT NOW there are 4.5 million Homes needed, FNMA estimates 7.5 million, The Millennials are just entering their Family Formation Years and they rival the Boomers in sheer numbers. There are also an estimated 10 million people who have crossed the Borders all will need homes. So, the Demand is there! I agree the prices will come down, but the charts show 2 more waves of inflation which will drive prices up.....crazy timing issue. Michael Douville

Thank you for your comments. I actually think when the NBER dates the Recession, it will have started November of 2023. It will take them a couple years to assemble all of the data, but my data just keeps getting worse. The sheer magnitude of the Liquidity that was injected into the Economy is staggering. The accompanying malinvestment needs to be resolved. Unfortunately, I agree with you; this could get UGLY! The Silver Lining will be the discounted assets that will be available........... Michael Douville

Thank you for the comments. It maybe was "Seasonally Adjusted"? or the quality of the Dollars was superior therefore an adjustment was needed? There was trillions of US Dollars sent around the world as Currency Swaps that were never accounted for in 2008-2010; not included on the Balance Sheet! Move along, nothing to see here!!!! Michael Douville

Thank you for your comment. It is always confusing when the markets have a change of direction. Cognitive dissonance sets in; the novice wants the crazy market that comes every 18 years to continue. Denial sets in. Then Reality destroys those unprepared. Fortunes are lost! Then those prepared, make Fortunes. Michael Douville

Thank you for the thoughtful comment. Very interesting thought. If the Case Shiller were based on an "Average" sale, then you would be correct; an overabundance of expensive home sales that one might expect if there were a "Flight to Safety"...foreign buying? Yes, that could skew the results....... Good work! Michael Douville

Thank you for the comment. Unfortunately, there is so much data to sift through; some relevant, some not. The problem is that the Cycle is so long almost a generation passes from Peak to Peak. Thirty-year-olds have never experienced a really nasty Recession and Cycle Completion; others forget. They did not treat me well and the results are etched on my memory. However, those who prepare will make Generational Wealth...just be patient. Michael Douville

Thank you for the comment. Real Estate is regional; therefore, the downturn will have greater or lesser impact depending on local dynamics. I just finished a consult, and this very topic was raised. The Risk is to the downside; therefore, time is on your side. As far as the Fed, i think they also believe Inflation is coming back. Hence the balancing act. The next round of Inflation may be worse; hedges would be very advantageous. Michael Douville

Thank you for your comments. The data and the timing model along with the crazy economics we have today all make me believe that asset prices will fall. The Bond Bubble started the process and Bonds have encountered huge losses, Commercial Real Estate is leading the way down for the Real Estate Asset Class and Equities should follow. Although headline employment appears good, below the surface, the Economy is shedding full-time jobs and replacing with multiple part-time lower paying jobs. Credit Card debt has crossed the $Trillion Dollar level, and Savings are at a 40-year low. What could possibly go wrong!!! I also believe more Inflation is coming and a Recession. That makes for very complicated potential outcomes. Without knowing more of your situation, I would be remiss to advise you. As you know, Phoenix is my home market. My suggestion would be to call my corporate office and schedule a time to meet with me or another CREIA to review a course of action suitable for you. Michael Douville

Thank you for the thoughtful comments. You seem to be in a very good financial position. This is what most dream of, affordable mortgage and a good secure cash position. This Cycle will complete, there will be a Recession, and then it will finish and start again. I believe another 2 waves of Inflation are coming which will warrant hedging with Real Assets. Real Estate does very well as long as any leverage is easily serviced. Sounds like you are doing well, good job! Michael Douville

Thank you for the nice compliment. Sometimes there is an awful lot of data to sift through from so many sources. Always nice to have a helping hand send very pertinent and current information. Michael Douville

Great insight Michael

@@paullowe-westusarealty2353 Thank you for your comment. This will be the 4th completion I have experienced. They are all very similar. Michael Douville

Thank you for your thoughtful comments. I completely agree with you; I am just having trouble with the data. It seems to be "Seasonally Adjusted" or "Annually Seasonally Adjusted" and then jobs are re-calibrated a few weeks later, so far, adjusted DOWN! There is also trouble with what constitutes employment? 3 hours a week for a delivery food service? The Charts have been showing "Full-Time employment is shedding jobs and Part-Time is exploding. Lose a 40-hour job and find two 20-hour jobs; is that counted twice? The Federal Revenue tax revenue from employees is significantly lower than last year indicating lower wage earnings and the WARN notices for announcing layoffs are prevalent in all 50 states. Credit Card balances and Credit Card charges are at an all-time high while Individual Savings are being Depleted! Yet the unemployment rate stubbornly remains at 3.8-3.9%........amazing!!! What could possibly go WRONG? I was a working broker in Phoenix during the 2005-2006 runup. In March of 2006, there were only 2936 listings available in a County of 4 million; 12 months later, there were 33,330 listings on its way to 54,000. Californians were influencing the Market then as now....... Michael Douville

@@michaeldouville690great answer worthy of a reply. Surprised he hasn’t come back to you with a response. Everyone knows the 3.9% unemployment rate is fake.

@@syberspud Thank you for the comment. Real Estate values and activity is definitely Regional driven by migration and employment. Florida and Texas are very good examples. Florida has been driven by a huge influx of retirees exasperated by the Covid lockdowns in the Northern States and those of Retirement Age throwing in the towel and calling it quits...moving to Florida! Huge demand all across Florida. However, retirees have fixed income and Fixed Cash causing them to have difficulty affording the price increases, a built in Ceiling. The Economy is based on Hospitality. Contrast that to the King of Bad Real Estate Investing for 2008-2010: Phoenix AZ. Phoenix got body slammed in 2008. Phoenix was a one industry town: Construction! Now, Phoenix has diversified it Industry and has several chip manufacturers with multiple plants; giants like Intel and TSMC. with thousands of very good paying jobs. Manufacturers like Wolf-Sub Zero, Nestles, Kohler, and Microsoft, BNSF Railroad bringing massive employment. The proximity to California is an obvious blessing. All markets will be affected by the Cycle Completing, all markets will be affected differently. I Believe Florida and Texas are ahead of themselves and will correct more than most markets. There is an opportunity coming.......invest where jobs are moving! Michael Douville

Thank you for your comment. The Real Estate Cycle seems to be a Global Phenomenon. I do not follow Canada's timing; however, it appears the Market is highly leveraged, Rates are trending up, and Inflation is evident. Commercial Properties are in trouble and the banks that lent the funds are at Huge Risk! These are Hallmarks of a topping process. My belief is better pricing and entry points are highly probable. Rates will not save the RE Asset class; waiting, saving, and paying off debts looks to have very little downside. Michael Douville

Thank you for your comment. Negative gearing is going to BANKCRUPT many over-leveraged investors. I do not envision rates declining much. I have spent 3 months every year for 20 years of your Winters in Burleigh Heads on the beach; I know enough of Australia's RE Market to know it is over-priced. Should the Councils decide to open more land, prices would be very competitive. Michael Douville

Thank you for your comment. The same issue is happening Nationally. In 2020 and 2021, houses were a very hot commodity, just like Apartment Units. The Demand was off the charts! Move the time dial ahead the 2-3 years it takes to develop the projects and the whole Market Dynamics have changed! Rates have doubled, costs have exploded, and the carrying cost of interest rate charges have probably tripled for Builders. Add in a sharp decline in demand just as the Builders have ramped up, and you have the recipe for HUGE LOSSES! Texas, Florida, and Arizona have tremendous long-term trends. This will be just a correction for them; it could be an Epic Correction, but a correction in a long-term bull market. Michael Douville