Football/Soccer Goals PREDICTION with the Poisson Model | Poisson Probability in Football

This video features the power of the Poisson model, a statistical tool that has changed the way we approach football predictions. We'll learn how to use it for better understanding goals probabilities and in particular in over/under markets.
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Contents:
0:00 Introduction to Football/Soccer Goals Prediction with the Poisson Model
02:01 What is the Poisson Distribution?
03:05 Football goals probability with Poisson Distribution
03:36 Predicting probability of a specific number of goals with Probability Mass Function
04:10 Predicting under goals with Cumulative Distribution Function
05:41 Example of predicting under/over goals in football
06:40 Predicting probability specific number of goals with Poisson Distribution
08:02 Predicting under goals with Poisson Distribution
09:03 Predicting over goals with Poisson Distribution
10:13 Calculating a goals probability distribution
12:00 Calculating a goals probability for a range of goals
12:54 Football goals probability with Poisson Distribution: using online calculators
13:45 Football goals probability with Poisson Distribution: real example for Inter vs Roma
15:21 Football goals probability with Poisson Distribution: chart example
16:11 Football/Soccer Goals Prediction with the Poisson Model workshop summary
Useful links:
- Getting Started with Football Data Analysis Using Python:
• Football/Soccer Data A...
- Getting Started with Football / Soccer Data API:
• Football / Soccer Data...
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[@ciao.football]

Check out why the Poisson Distribution doesn't always predict goals and matches accurately: kzbin.info/www/bejne/boPIo4GZqa54nJI

[@oguzcanture]

Thanks for the content. Can we also use poisson to predict the total score of two teams in a match? If so, how?

[@ciao.football]

Thanks for the comment. As a matter of fact we can. I'm planning to create a video about it. But long story short we can simulate matches and get a score matrix with probabilities

[@oguzcanture]

@@ciao.football Sounds great. Looking forward to it

[@AlisaMusicFM]

Пуассон хороший инструмент, но он не даст большую точность. Это уже неоднократно проверено. Максимум как его можно использовать, это в совокупности с другими расчетами, как один из ориентиров для анализа. PS и да, матрица распределения голов также давно известна) но даже точность в 65% с ее помощью не получится сделать.

[@ciao.football]

По дефолту, сам по себе, не даёт большую точность по голам. Но если использовать ту же матрицу для расчета исхода матча, то точность уже лучше. Ну и, по моему опыту, Пуассон лучше всего использовать как вспомогательный инструмент, а главный - своя голова