Forecast Discussion - May 23, 2024 - Significant Severe Weather Continues Today through the Weekend

For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
Our stretch of significant severe weather continues today through the weekend. In this video, we'll dive into the meteorology of today's threat before going over some possible outcomes for the next few days.
TODAY: SPC has outlined a broad Slight Risk (level 2/5) from the Dakotas southward into Texas with an area of Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) centered on Nebraska. Multiple shortwaves will rotate through the flow and help initiate isolated storms this afternoon ahead of the dryline. Where storms develop, all hazards are on the table. Across Nebraska, storms should congeal into an MCS this evening with significant wind damage potential.
TOMORROW: Scattered severe storms are possible ahead of the cold front from the Great Lakes to Texas. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main risk, but a tornado or two is possible, especially near any outflow boundaries from overnight convection.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY: A significant severe weather episode (with outbreak potential) is possible on Saturday and Sunday from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley. A low-amplitude shortwave and deepening surface low will move into the southern Plains on Saturday, impinging upon a tight dryline. Discrete supercells with all severe hazards are expected, posing a risk for strong tornadoes, large hail, and significant damaging winds. The threat continues east into Sunday as another low-amplitude shortwave develops.
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Contents
0:00 Introduction, risk areas
3:46 Today's setup
29:35 Tomorrow's setup
31:18 Saturday/Sunday setup
37:38 Wrap-up

[@kristinadill5613]

Going to start calling my mornings “coffee and Convective Chronicles” Thank you for the outlook Trey!

[@0xstuff625]

Woohoo my favourite time of the day! 😊

[@Meathead72]

Saturday as of right now looks similar to 5/6/24 except the question of storm mode doesn’t seem to be as high. Haven’t seen many fail modes except for capping but like you said we should have plenty of forcing and daytime heating to erode the cap.

[@SylvieJ47]

looks like a concerning stretch coming up. I hope people in Indy for the 500 are weather aware! Thanks for the video Trey!

[@constance5894]

After watching many awe inspiring videos of tornados yesterday, it dawned on me there are very few areas of engaging scientific study that have such an emotional side. In the abstract, videos and photos of tornados are stunning.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Couldn’t agree more!

[@NorthMsWx]

2024 has Trey working overtime 😭

[@WhyNotThereAllDoingIt]

especially now with the imminent high risk lol

[@peachxtaehyung]

Ugh middle Tennessee don't need another tornado issue. My aunt was in the tornado emergency in Columbia, and she's still recovering from it don't need another also Oklahoma don't need more severe weather either

[@billbrauer2178]

Love the update. Thank you!

[@dakotastrawn93]

Hey Trey, everybody here. Hoping to have a good local chase on Sunday here in the Mid-South! 🤞

[@670HP-Package-NOW]

Trey hey, everyhere body

[@OrderOfTwisted]

Hi neighbor! 🫶🏼 stay safe!

[@Sniper1234boy]

Saturday 😮 thanks for letting us know

[@bradkenny1506]

Was not expecting the first watch of the day to be in Maine

[@faegrrrl]

Thank you.

[@tmaks2]

Indy 500 is cooked 😢

[@severeweatheralert6522]

Yay i was waiting for convective to upload a video about Saturday and Sunday.

[@WhoFlungPoo2024]

The usual excellent briefing!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!

[@rflatt16]

Love your stuff Trey, helps me in my attempt to really understand everything that goes into severe weather forming.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!

[@chrisseals6191]

Watching this at 1100p Thurs, here in SW Oklahoma a large supercell produced a mile wide, multi vortex tornado that primarily tracked over open range land. Several homes were flattened though, and Altus, OK barely missed getting hit.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Yep, I was on that storm with our tour group

[@slayer18726]

Thanks for the hard work you put in for all of us.

[@calebcopeland3436]

This year went from blah to historic so quick

[@jeromepollard292]

Man, late may early June is the most dangerous time of year for tornadoes. I think Saturday sunday will be the most significant day this year, and thats crazy to say.

[@MichaelMcClellanWX]

Current NAM runs have STP maxed across central OK on Saturday, as well as RM storm motion below 30 knots. If this scenario pans out, might mean chasers can actually keep up with these storms, and hopefully gives more warning time if any towns are unluckily in their path.

[@Bigw0rm13]

I appreciate the specific responses you give beyond the video in the comments. Made me subscribe.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! I feel like a big part of learning meteorology is asking questions, so I’m always happy to answer questions and comments.

[@ejdoe5122]

you explain things so well, i appreciate the videos u post :)

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you so much!

[@tomchidwick]

Thanks Trey! Have an awesome chase!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!

[@jw66793]

Awesome discussion and explanation! Thanks so much for doing this and integrating all the commonly used web sites with the soundings. Keep it up! Will be leaving DFW to chase in Oklahoma on Saturday for sure, but no way will I take on the mountains and forests of the MO/Ohio Valley on Sunday. Tonight....GO STAS!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you so much!

[@LeviW133]

Great video Trey 😁😁😁😁

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!

[@tornadoclips2022]

Good work!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!

[@JudyMenzel7]

Defo a complicated one!

[@greggsplaylist]

Parents live in the nothern border of the enhanced risk area. Hoping that some storms can get going to the south and weaken some of the just in time moisture. Also hope your tour group is having a good season so far.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you; it’s definitely been a fruitful year for us. Guests have been happy!

[@Michael-gi5th]

That was a violent tornado yesterday in oklahoma, ef4 possibly if they had the rating system tweeked, crazy for a 5% risk day where no one wouldve thought this would happen I wonder why this is happening so much this year Trey?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

It was intense. This active season was pretty well predicted given the background pattern being favorable (ENSO progression, warm Gulf, etc)

[@peachxtaehyung]

When things calm down can you do a case study on the 1998 Nashville tornado, the 2020 easter outbreak , and I think there was a major outbreak in 2021 too I just can't remember the date. But I would like a case study on it as well

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

They are on my list!

[@peachxtaehyung]

@@ConvectiveChronicles yay can't wait

[@letumpeek]

I spy the mesonet icon, what other sites do you use to monitor the weather? future and current conditions?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

For forecasting into the future (model data), I use College of DuPage and Pivotal Weather. For current obs, I use SPC Mesoanalysis, the UCAR surface obs page, the College of DuPage satellite page, and of course the OK Mesonet for OK events.

[@letumpeek]

@@ConvectiveChronicles thanks Trey. Fellow okie as well. I’ve been around since 7k and I’m not sure why you haven’t blown up yet because your forecast vids leading into these severe events in absolutely unmatched across this platform. The depth of knowledge you have on this topic is fascinating. Good job and keep us informed 👍🏼

[@peachxtaehyung]

@@letumpeek right treys growth has been amazing but not what he deserves still honestly

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

@@letumpeek I really appreciate that; thank you for the kind words!

[@richgerow3472]

Oklahoma under the gun yet again even after two different days of severe weather brought two separate violent EF-4 tornadoes this year. This spring has been nut for us Okies.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

It certainly has been!

[@GarraOfTheFunk14]

Hey man, this is very good factual coverage. Do you think Chicago is in much danger Sunday? Being from Dayton, I have bad vibes with memorial day severe weather after 2019 so I'm already on edge now in Chicago 😅

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! Chicago is probably well north of the area of greatest concern, so the threat will be low but keep an eye out just in case

[@MightyMuffins]

Insane the 3 days coming. All these look to be extremely robust systems Saturday and ESPECIALLY Sunday most. That set up has all the factors of an almost 0 fail mode and that would insane to see that. The OK high risk was something close to this leading up to like Sunday wants.....do I see a high on any of the weekend ones? Nope....MDT for sure but I can't see the SPC pull the trigger on the high like some are expecting. Regardless the 2nd most active tornado season on record continues...if you go by reports. Cofirmed tornadoes we are like #6 I think but still....we can easily catch more on the latter. I knew we were in for an active season but this is bonkers as hell. So many people having career years and many are saying "How can you top this?!"....honestly one can't. I think this has the potential also to .are the coming years for chasers if they are slightly down years to have almost unreal depressed expectations. Career years are career years for a reason. Though lot of the left over people like me and a good chunk of New England chasers have yet to see any of this so we still got our time......though I am sketchy on Mid-June when we go....the omega block always comes. Though through early June so far the ensembles keep active as hell and no block. So huzzah. :)

[@jaredpatterson1701]

Simulated radar two days ago was showing numerous isolated supercells on Sunday. Looks like the real deal

[@antiksur8883]

Well, the storm mode looks to be more on the discrete end, so maybe it could? But, the last high risk was supposed to have discretes too, but that didn't exactly happen as expected. So who knows?

[@caydenruzicka]

We got some dry line days

[@envis10n12]

Thanks trey. How'd the chasing go on Tuesday for you guys?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

It went well; we saw three tornadoes in SW IA, including the Carbon tornado and the shaft of the Greenfield tornado.

[@elitennis7973]

Great video Trey! Do you think Indinapolis will see significant severe weather on Sunday, or is it too far north?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! Most intense stuff should be farther south but I’d still keep an eye out

[@elitennis7973]

@@ConvectiveChronicles Ok got it. Thanks for the update!

[@scurvyirving265]

See I looked at GFS reflectivity on this day and it was completely dry. Am I missing something?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

I wouldn’t use composite reflectivity products on global models; they have very little utility.

[@jeanp5395]

Trey…..are you independent of noaa & nws in terms of analysis? I hope so……new subscriber.😊

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you so much! Correct, I am not affiliated with NOAA/NWS. I just love severe weather and have studied it for years both inside and outside the classroom!

[@danielwieten8617]

I moved to DFW not expecting, but HOPING I'd have a better chance at seeing a tornado for the first time. Looks like I should've just stayed in central Texas. I lived 15 minutes away from that Temple tornado yesterday 🙄

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Dang…well, DFW might see some interesting stuff tomorrow…

[@SmokeTheHolyChalice]

Yeah, but then you would still be living in the Temple area so overall I’d say you came out with a “ W” in the end.

[@ltdjag7577]

Hope you day a day 1 this Saturday

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

New vid will be up tomorrow AM

[@jaredpatterson1701]

Storm season looks like it's going to go out with a bang

[@user-rn8dm9bj3r]

Who said it’s done anytime soon?

[@jaredpatterson1701]

@user-rn8dm9bj3r well, June starts hurricane season 🌀

[@lolmetswhathappeneduhhh2029]

I only have time for a brief glance. What do you think the threat for North Alabama will be on Sunday?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Looks like a fairly low-end risk

[@lolmetswhathappeneduhhh2029]

@@ConvectiveChronicles Thank you much!!

[@sgtrock3259]

You expecting the cap to save DFW on Saturday?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

The cap, along with most of the forcing being relegated to the north

[@sgtrock3259]

@@ConvectiveChronicles Okay cool- was only able to listen in the car for a bit when I could and I finally looked at the models and dang what a parameter space. Seems like DFW has had a few wicked ingredients that are just hidden under the blanket but can’t initiate thankfully. I’d like to get a bit better with forcing, strength of the cap, what it takes to break it, mixing, etc. Do you have any videos specifically on that topic, or any of yours you’d suggest? Obviously I’ve learned about it from information buried somewhere in many of your videos, but a focused discussion on that would be awesome.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

@@sgtrock3259 I don't have any specific videos yet on that topic, but I can add it to the list. I do talk about some of those things in my Weather Map Analysis and Skew-T/Hodograph series, both of which you can find in the Playlists tab on the channel.

[@MsLj-kk8ly]

They saying tornado outbreak in Ohio! Will it be lower, middle or entire?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

I’m honestly not seeing that at this point, at least for Sunday, but still keep an eye on things.

[@qcaldwell2601]

Are there any threats for STL on Sunday? I've been keeping my eyes glued to STL almost the whole video.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Yes, STL should be on alert for all severe hazards, possibly significant

[@qcaldwell2601]

@ConvectiveChronicles Lovely... That's not what I was looking forward to reading. I'm hoping to be okay.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

@@qcaldwell2601 I hope so too; have a plan of action and you should be able to get through it ok. It continues to look quite potent; I'll have a video update tomorrow morning.

[@weatherwithryan67]

Love the outlook Trey!! Where is your target area for today? Mine is Elk City, OK

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! That’s where I’m thinking

[@thatjpwing]

I’m headed there as well

[@stephenlenker7854]

There seems to be a little bit of a cap concern with Saturday, but if that doesn’t end up being an issue, then we have a big problem.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

I honestly don’t think capping will be an issue; the trough looks really well timed with peak heating to erode it fully

[@stephenlenker7854]

@@ConvectiveChronicles interesting, maybe some of the CAMS are overdoing it. The soundings are horrific though.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

@@stephenlenker7854 Yeah, they are quite potent. Models have slowed the shortwave down just slightly, so that may push things back a bit into the evening hours.

[@saitoukena7966]

Gotta wonder if saturday will have the same pitfalls as 5/6. We shall see as more data comes in.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Right now, it’s not looking like the storm mode concerns from that day will be present

[@user-nl5vj9jv1h]

I am so so stressed about Central OH on Sunday. This is giving me big 4/2 vibes.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

No need to stress at this point. The main risk looks to be well southwest of that area. Regardless, have a plan and you’ll get through it ok.

[@user-nl5vj9jv1h]

I was really traumatized by 3/14 and 4/2 and then those tornadoes in IA really spooked me. I’m just really scared.

[@user-nl5vj9jv1h]

Like, I don’t feel like my basement will be adequate.

[@user-nl5vj9jv1h]

Do you think that this could be as bad as 4/2? I’m just so freaking worried.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

@@user-nl5vj9jv1h No. The main risk area is well southwest of central OH

[@thatguy2224]

A lot of folks in this area are writing off the severe weather threat since the last several times they said significant severe weather nothing happened. Be interesting to see how the models continue to trend.

[@PetiteDauphine1]

. . . just because it hasn't happened, doesn't mean it won't happen. Wisdom and common sense saves many lives. 🤞hopefully no ***red letter*** notifications in the Storm Reports afterward.🙏

[@myleswangerin8533]

Posted 55 seconds ago and i'm not the first. 🤣🤣🤣

[@stephenrosiak8002]

I wish you would take soundings in other areas where there's a chance for severe weather except for the Midwest we had a weak tornado in Maine South Central Maine!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

The goal of these videos is to focus on areas where the greatest potential for severe weather exists, and that was the Plains today.

[@stephenrosiak8002]

@@ConvectiveChronicles they updated the Northeast to a slight risk I understand but maybe you should pay a little attention to just one area you know what I mean just throw a little attention to another area maybe that is expecting severe weather.

[@windwatcher11]

We're getting the sneak attack tornadic thunderstorms this morning. Did I mention I'm too sleepy for this sh*t?.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Looks like that line had quite a few spinups in it

[@windwatcher11]

@ConvectiveChronicles It wouldn't surprise me if it classifies as a weak derecho. Seems to meet criteria.

[@windwatcher11]

​@ConvectiveChronicles DMX called it a Derecho. They aren't done with the report, as they are still gathering data. Garden-variety, as we would say.😅 60-75 mph winds.

[@Sciencetor728]

When ur the last to see the forecast ! I suck lololol… Trey you gotta work at Norman

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Haha thank you! Hey at least you saw it!

[@danielbaetens1587]

I swear to god the gfs model is drunk