Forecasting Trend and Seasonality

[@catiemae97]

I was stuck on a homework problem for almost two hours before I found this video, after sitting through SO MANY other videos that weren't QUITE what I was looking for. Thank you so much! You've saved my sanity lol

[@elizabethreynaa]

have a project about this topic due tomorrow morning and i had no idea how to do this until i clicked on this video. thank you soo sooo so much! YOU SAVED MY GRADE

[@42luke93]

What happens if p value is > Alpha .05

[@IAKhan-km4ph]

very nice plz add its equation (seasonal regression).

[@ftcrouse]

I'm receiving a #VALUE! return for the forecast. I'm trying to forecast by quarters for 3 years. I was doing a tester run using 3 quarters as I received the error you provided in the video (#NUM!), Maybe I have to data setup incorrectly. Please advise. Thanks!

[@kenlaw04]

I fucking love you for this! Marketing student here!

[@vinwin06]

hello thanks for the video quick question on the model which you have showed , how to use solver function in this model to reduce the standard error on the predicted value?

[@semidevilz]

Great video. I have a question though......with regression formulas, I've read in various books that you shouldn't use the regression equation 'outside' your range(i,e, in this case, outside of season 13). does this not apply in this case?

[@SeraVlogs]

How will you interpret the result by using the Christmas season as the base season? Will you not be including S1?

[@salbil5511]

pLEASE, my data analysis is not working,any help on how to make it function?Thanks.

[@ericwinny]

what is if the observed data have increasing seasonal variation? I mean the swing of seasonal variation is smaller in the first year and it gets bigger year after year. what can I apply in such case?

[@ericwinny]

Thanks +profMattDean , i have another question, I am using addictive decomposition method to develop a forecast model for a time series with constant seasonal variation and business cycles. however, after fitting the regression with deseasonalized data, I realized the R-squared values is only 0.42. does it mean that I should drop that forecast model? thank you.

[@shahzanhafidz517]

Hi, if i got 2 season a year can i use dummy variables ( 1 0, 0 1) to forecast?

[@starrprice7435]

Cheer up Matt :)

[@MrMLBson09]

how could he? shits boring as fuck.

[@lellisbabydoll]

Have the avarage weekly sales already been seasonally adjusted?

[@Cloud_Zero04]

Anyone knows what or where should be the OUTPUT RANGE?

[@babakvaheddoost353]

Hi. I guess dummy variable need n-1 component meaning that if you have 3 season you have to introduce one of them as 000.

[@davidlangridge2246]

The problem can be avoided by setting the constant to 0 I believe, but this of course has its own implications

[@JeremyNiles]

awesome, thanks

[@talatuhassan6469]

Markov chain, simulation. Thanks

[@aagii94]

where is trend?

[@asharawan7331]

This is also my question

[@PrinceOfParthia74]

and then there is time when you need to do this manually

[@davidlangridge2246]

Lol try doing this for several hundred observations, or several thousand.. For anyone wondering, transpose your dates as column titles, and then use the formula: =IF($C4=F$2, 1, 0) This will print a 1 or 0 depending on whether the logical argument (that the contents of C4 and F2 are equal) is true or false. 1 for True, 0 for False. Take the example of: C4 = January, F2 = January, the formula output will be 1. C5 = February, F2 = January, output will be 0.