Operations Management using Excel: Seasonality and Trend Forecasting

[@goforward12ify]

THIS VIDEO IS SO UNDERRATED, IT SHOULD BE ON THE TOP OF THE PAGES

[@arifrayhan1126]

exactly

[@AnkitPatel234]

Exactly. Love from India.

[@OscarFromIndia]

I agree

[@Rajdeepdey943]

Absolutely

[@zazisosibo6015]

Nothing but the truth there.I passed an interview practical with this video.

[@debanshumajumdar9790]

Dear Mustafa sir, the whole KZbin community, and the whole world are blessed to have you here. You answered all the questions that were coming into my mind as the video progressed. It was like you were reading my mind and answering all the questions that I have. Thank you sir

[@mcanbolat]

Thank you!

[@fabianl9465]

This video is literally a must for everyone that works as a planner. It’s one of the best educational videos out there

[@fsociety_]

Hy, did this help you in planning in real life? I am a Production Planner myself and I want to know which forecast method people normally use in forecasting demand in real life scenarios.

[@randominternetviewer166]

​@@fsociety_ It depends on the data. This one he presented works well if the data has obvious repeatable patterns that repeat every year, like the one shown in the chart. If it doesnt have that, this method will easily fail.

[@dwnttttttyyyyypppppp]

Many videos are watching, so im here and only this video I got the answer. Thankyou, love from Indonesia.

[@jamesjennings9438]

This is absolutely an AWESOME technique! The seasonal adjustment is exactly what I needed and I put this into actual use -- Thank you for helping me look good to my boss!

[@deuskrieg5635]

This video gets the number 1 sport for the most informative 13 minutes of my planning life.

[@mcanbolat]

Thanks.

[@godfreyharris4582]

Dr. Mustafa is a Genous. He makes complex work easy to do.

[@97NRBhgfdkjsvfdkjl]

Wow, incredibly helpful. I learned more from this video than I've learned from the actual class all semester.

[@abhinavgupta1195]

You answered all the questions that were coming into my mind as the video progressed.

[@zorkminer]

I don't comment much, but this video is amazing. I'm impressed that a video so short could be so informative.

[@mcanbolat]

Thank you!

[@bensmith6987]

This is much clear explanation than my prof who has 30 years of experience. Thank you so much.

[@rounaksinghbuttar9083]

God you're a genius. No one else has explained forecasting using Excel for Production and Operations Management as well as you sir.

[@mcanbolat]

Thank you!

[@drinkbeerandchillwithmzohm4507]

You should get an award for this video sir 🙌🏿🙌🏿🙌🏿

[@shikhajaiswal5148]

This is the best video I came across on model for forecast

[@selimcanpolat8664]

just predicted my future bills on excel w/ this method, thanks a lot!

[@peterdoherty4558]

It was great when you taught me years ago and it's even better now that I have some real world experience. Fantastic!

[@mcanbolat]

Thank you Peter! Nice to hear from you!

[@shubhamraje6122]

Very well depicted. Follows all baby steps. Must watch for a newbie learner!

[@daniel_ptt]

Sir, you are the man of career development, love your videos

[@1243mikeb]

Thank you very much! Just what I was looking for. Super helpful!

[@Kentucky-ev7bd]

Very nice!! Love it!! The only thing I would say add is a quick explanation of key terms. Slope, intercept, seasonality.

[@OldMenAreHip1]

Incredible vid. Helped me on my exam with seasonal linear trend forecasting

[@anihusein6168]

Dear Mustafa, you are great.

[@chrisdireduryan]

This video is so educating it made me post a comment. Couldn't be better. Thanks a million

[@mcanbolat]

Thank you!

[@matiuszhu8967]

Thank god i found your video man. You don't know how much I needed this before my interview. LIFESAVERRRRR

[@vishalkulkarni9227]

One of the great video regarding forecasting. 👏 Thank you so much need more video like this. Thank you so much.

[@kellyzimmermann3391]

This has helped me so much!! Thank YOU Mustafa!

[@OlugunnaAdeifeAlabi]

I hardly comment on videos here but this is wow!!!!!!

[@dianap.carlos4934]

Excellent video. Thank you very much for your help Dr. Canbolat.

[@MohaAlraed]

thanks brother i will start my new job as an executive manager for a small factory and this is going to help a lot

[@MohaAlraed]

few question what if there are "controllable" factors that will effect the demand, for example, huge random advertising, or getting new businesses to order the products in large number I mean it will not be just seasonal, is there a way to determine the future demand? I have one in mind but not sure if it's scientific.

[@danelleduardorapozoramirez1030]

@@MohaAlraed my take is that since those events weren't seasonal you shouldn't take it into account when doing your forecast.

[@mahadev2023]

Thank you Dr. Mustafa. You described very well.

[@jabulanisello3712]

This is the best explanation I've found and it basically answered even the questions I didn't know I had. Thank you. I've subscribed to your channel as well.

[@azizony123]

Awesome Mustafa, very well explained........

[@didimples]

amazing breakdown of the forecast methods!

[@ektajain334]

AMAZING EXPLANATION- also learnt renaming of a range. thanks sir

[@ahammadgalib5810]

Awesome video, easy explanation, great presentation. Thank you very much. 👍

[@PradeepRamesh-ew7uh]

Simple to understand and Great video

[@michaelyounes29]

Absolutely fantastic explanation. You sir are a star!

[@haveyoumetpia]

I got everything that I need. Well explained. Thank you to the creator of this video. New subscriber here 🤗

[@josephmastropietro5810]

Incredibly helpful. Great walkthrough, I was able to replicate the process with my data and drive some great discussion.

[@TristanBailey]

Great forecast work and nice and straight forward. Many other examples are more limited and don’t go this far.

[@patrickfranciotti6212]

Thank you @mustafa. Saved my life with this video. Definitely subscribing.

[@woodypham6474]

I hope that you will keep doing forecast for different kind of business sales. That would be great

[@danelleduardorapozoramirez1030]

Amazing video, i was looking for something like this for a while. Subscribed.

[@iPururin]

Straightforward and practical presentation. Thank you.

[@anneliesehanson5256]

This video was so incredibly helpful! I love how you explained everything.

[@aloy5678]

Excellent Video , Thank you so much Mustafa

[@amithmihiranga1913]

Thank you so much. You made my task so much easy with this nice video

[@varunsurya6811]

I loved this method. Superb.

[@vishalkulkarni9227]

Great Video, This Video should be at Top...Amazing learned alot and would like to use this in real life. Thank you so much 😊

[@drmilk1100]

best video for forecasting!!!

[@Chanheegogo]

Thank you so much for sharing this technique. Very clear and simple to understand for even beginner for demand planning Thank you so much. I will try to utilize this method in my workplace

[@valentinapatino8215]

Thank you so much for sharing your knowledge! An amazing technique

[@madinat.3863]

you're the best! thanks for explaining

[@qianwu1873]

This is exactly what I was looking for!! Super helpful for my upcoming interview.

[@shashankvaradhi9290]

Very very informative. Great explanation. Thank you so much!!

[@Rabixter]

Nice one, I liked the seasonality index idea. It's very simple but still gives a decent accuracy.

[@DavidSme]

Hi Mustafa, very helpful video. Your voice is also pleasant to listen to. Thank you!

[@mcanbolat]

Thank you!

[@diegocanales6783]

Thanks, so muchh the video was really clear and the document help a lot to put It in practise. thanks a lot again.

[@oddmik7273]

Bravo Monsieur, Thank you for your explications.

[@khaledalharbi4028]

Thank you so much! I've learned a lot from this video.

[@elenamohanty517]

Hi Mustafa, this was great! thanks a lot for your video!

[@y020380]

This was extremely helpful, THANKYOU!

[@mohammaddanish1670]

Great 👍🏻 explained well

[@ankeshsingh2576]

This is a hidden treasure. I am so glad I found this channel. Could you possibly explain if the seasonality index we have used so far is what we call exponential smoothing ?/

[@mcanbolat]

Thanks. They are quite different. I have a video on exponential smoothing.

[@mcanbolat]

Couple of people criticized that I didn't de-seasonalize before finding the trend. No one can prove that the model will be superior if we de-seasonalize. Below is a link with a small simulation with random dataset. You can refresh it in Excel using F9 or you can enter a value in an empty cell to refresh in Google. I calculated the MAPE for both deseasonalized and not deseasonalized models. I have shown empirically that there is no obvious benefit of removing seasonality before finding the trend parameters. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YVjz1IZT8Hd489ZCifAIM5yTiuyk0qdcoCrdWIbBruk/edit?usp=sharing

[@lalu225]

Thank you very much, your video is very useful. Also, I tested the excel sheet that simulates the difference between the two trending approaches and it seems like the the differences in error is indeed random. Do you know if there are any papers or studies suggesting otherwise? Where did people get this impression from, that one needs to de-seasonalise before finding the trend? I'd be interested if this is true over say 100k trials - I'll attempt to run a python script to test it and check the distribution of outcomes

[@mcanbolat]

lalu225 I haven’t looked at the literature but if someone proves that there is no benefit it may get published. It would be interesting to try this on a large number of datasets and report empirical output.

[@helloh5727]

Thabks for the videos man, I am an operations and supply chain management major and your videos are amazing.

[@ammaralolaqi7627]

Thank you a lot Dr. Mustafa for this great video. I have 2 queries: - is there a name for this forecasting method ? - What about if you had a data set for one year only, 12 months ? (Means January do not repeat etc...). Anything will be applied differently then ?

[@lennywilson2702]

Thank you.Excellent video.

[@arabbitinsolar2649]

Thanks, your video helps me a lot. If you can add some equations attached in the sheet, that‘s will much better. But, anyway, it is an amazing video!

[@andrewhampaslupa2304]

subscribed after watching this..

[@southbayeric]

Great example my friend. Very useful!

[@jugalpaleja6431]

Super helpful video, I am requesting you make more video other forecast methods or help with link if it's already available somewhere. Thanks a Ton Mustafa

[@SuperAchraf91]

Well explained thank you so much Mustafa

[@navalksa]

this should be on top

[@manishsrivastav970]

It's really going to help me in my professional career. Can you please make a video over OTB planning.?

[@kamsun508]

dude, it is a amazing video , very helpful. thank you a lot

[@atgny]

Thank you for this very detailed review of forecasting! Amazing!!!! :)

[@linaf6299]

Thank you Mustafa.. very clear & helpful!!

[@jhunellaflores3214]

Done. Thank you po, Ma'am!

[@Simon-pt4ox]

perfect video! thank you very much for this!

[@utopia800]

Thanks a lot man, amazing tutorial!!!! So happy to find this :) just simply brilliant

[@divinekofigavor1546]

Very useful for for budgeting. Thank you for this great video.

[@angiesmith3386]

Amazing! Thank you! I agree with FSK... you made this so easy!

[@IAKhan-km4ph]

very nice. plz discuss ARIMA and Seasonal arima

[@aminualiyu555]

Thank you, so much for this insight.

[@byronexaporriton318]

Great video!

[@alexpressley4469]

sindex! Heck yeah. Great video.

[@hassanalianees5530]

This was so helpful. Thanks

[@aneeshbabu6612]

Thanks a lot, kindly share a spreadsheet to practice i would be really helpful

[@aneeshbabu6612]

Y there is link thanks

[@jieyeye7302]

Many thanks! Really good explained!

[@ashupashu5559]

Nice video Mr. Canbolat.

[@sebastianmakaruk7339]

Great video. Thanks so much! :)

[@josemanuelslatercarrasco617]

Thanks for the video. I think In order to improve the forecast, we should deseasonalize the demand first and then apply a Linear regression to obtain the trend, instead of just doing the regression on original demand

[@mcanbolat]

Please see my other comment for that. I know that what you described is a common process but empirically there is no apparent benefit. There is a link to the empirical "evidence" in my comment. I am thinking about writing a research note on that.

[@josemanuelslatercarrasco617]

@@mcanbolat Srry I didnt read the description. Thanks. Seems pretty interesting the low benefit of deseasonalize before regression empiricaly.

[@eduardocastilleja6665]

Great tutorial.

[@johntimothyvillacorte9115]

Awesome!! 👍🏼

[@AdamTauro]

Thank you Mustafa! Very helpful!

[@franckkarinamaryo1336]

Thank you very much Dr

[@AtomTiger3460]

What a godly video *praise*

[@thanhthaovothi3576]

Love your video so muchhhh!

[@mcanbolat]

Thank you!

[@SiddharthaMaz]

Thank you for such an informative video. Can this forecast be made even more accurate?

[@kutlukul3841]

Teşekkürler birader!

[@KevinNguyenSESE]

Very well done!