Stephen Kotkin: Russia’s Murky Future | Foreign Affairs Interview

Рет қаралды 246,938

Күн бұрын

When Russia botched its invasion of Ukraine and the West quickly came together in support of Kyiv, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s grip on power appeared shakier than ever. Last summer, an attempted coup even seemed to threaten his rule. But today, Putin looks confident. With battlefield progress in Ukraine and political turmoil ahead of the U.S. election in November, there’s reason to think things are turning in his favor.
The historian Stephen Kotkin joins us to discuss what this means for Russia’s future-and how the United States can be ready for whatever that future holds. Kotkin is the Kleinheinz Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. He is the author of the forthcoming book Stalin: Totalitarian Superpower, 1941-1990s, the last in his three-volume biography of the Soviet leader.
Sources:
“The Five Futures of Russia” by Stephen Kotkin
www.foreignaffairs.com/russia...
“The Talks That Could Have Ended the War in Ukraine” by Samuel Charap and Sergey Radchenko
www.foreignaffairs.com/ukrain...
You can find transcripts and more episodes of The Foreign Affairs Interview at www.foreignaffairs.com/podcas....
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Пікірлер: 235

@imaginaryenterprises Ай бұрын

It's always great to hear Joe Pesci speak geopolitics!

@donaldstewart444 Ай бұрын

He’ll love that😅

@BlueBaron3339 Ай бұрын

😂😆🤣

@cristiancea85 Ай бұрын

I knew that he reminded me somebody, i cant unsee it now

@jaymacpherson8167 Ай бұрын

I admire Professor Kotkin’s thinking and analyses. The winning the peace concept is wise. However, the road to winning the peace is sometimes cloaked in shadow. For instance…Arguing a mistake by Ukraine was made in not pursuing an armistice with Russia assumes Russia is trustworthy. Further, an armistice abandons the Ukrainians on the other side of the front line. Russia has been effective at agreeing without acting upon the agreements. I, for one, have no faith Russia would honor the terms of any agreement.

@AJThielmann Ай бұрын

Agree

@briancarl5566 Ай бұрын

Agree with you 100%. I'm a huge fan of Kotkin as well, but he puts too much faith in the Russians honoring any sort of agreement long-term. Their record is bad on this. It wasn't in Ukraine's interest to have the world move on to other things - the Russians would have just sent the tanks back in, after everyone stopped paying attention.

@petergreenwood7731 Ай бұрын

Russia says it was the west who reneged on Minsk and Istanbul What did Merkel say about the Minsk agreement?

@MG-ye1hu Ай бұрын

Agreements are not about trustworthiness but about balance of power. Such agreements only work if keeping them is more beneficial than breaking them by force of power. This is why the Munich agreement in 1938 was meaningless. Nazi Germany was the most powerful player at this time, and could break any agreement as they please, exactly what the US does today. A peace agreement with Russia can work if Nato is the the enforcer. Not because we trust Russia but because Nato is powerful enough to keep Russia in check.

@sergecherevko594 Ай бұрын

Kotkin talks about how Ukraine rejected peace treaties with Russia. And he never mentioned that Russia always, always breaks any treaty as soon as it sutis Moscow. The recent examples- Chechnya. Beofre that - FInland. Does Kotkin know about this? Of course! Why he ignores this, and pushes this idea about "treaties" with Russia? That's a good question.

@shingnosis Ай бұрын

I'm a simple man. I see Kotkin video I click play.

@American-In-Mykolaiv Ай бұрын

Kotkin is my favorite historian - he understand Russia and knows what the future holds for Russia, if they continue their"stand alone" policy. Putin is done, it is only a question of time.

@Miloun Ай бұрын

Kotkin is a revelation to me. I only discovered him last year. His insight into current politics is unparalleled in both its depth and breadth. Mind blown. (AND he originally studied Czech, which is the language my old home country :D )

@canadianmarauder1923 Ай бұрын

I could listen to Steven talk all day. Guy is so interesting.

@chocaliciouz Ай бұрын

I really want to see a debate between Kotkin and Mearsheimer

@harrybaulz666 Ай бұрын

Steve assumes russia would honor a armistice agreement. Ukraine and the baltics and Poland know better

@esakoivuniemi Ай бұрын

I totally agree. It seems like Steve doesn't have a real grasp on Russia. Talking about an armistice just sounds naive to me. Russia has never honored a single agreement, ever. Plus, Steve's arguments feel very America-focused. If you ask me, Frank Kagan and Timothy Snyder are probably the best Russia experts in the USA right now.

@luskvideoproductions869 Ай бұрын

Kotkin makes some great points, but the idea of an armistice 2022 that the Russians would actually honor is ridiculous...they violated the Minsk agreement, the Budapest memorandum, etc...they constantly meddle with neighboring countries and their independence. How could we possibly think they would have agreed to anything in Oct.of 2022?

@DavidH-ve4fm Ай бұрын

Could listen to Kotkin for hours.

@Saunajallu Ай бұрын

And I do!

@HaukeLaging Ай бұрын

What would the Ukraine KZbin world be without Stephen Kotkin... 👏

@peterwhite7428 Ай бұрын

Stephen Kotkin is a man I would love to meet one day. He is brilliant and humble. I agree with him on everything he says, having spent a lot of time in Russia and Ukraine.

@tamil.f.3734 Ай бұрын

Wow! Someone talking sense about Russia and China. What a fresh and intelligent thinking! I salute you Stephen Kotkin!

@listener523 Ай бұрын

Whilst I appreciate and approve of Kotkin calling for clarity in our foreign policy? We haven't seen clearly stated mission objectives nor exit strategy since the Swartzkopf debriefing in Iraq 1.

@user-pd5qz2vt2c Ай бұрын

Mr. Kotkin may well be the most insightful person alive on foreign relations. Brilliant podcast. Kudos!

@john1425 Ай бұрын

What do we have to do to get a Kotkin-Mearsheimer discussion??

@BlueBaron3339 Ай бұрын

Don't call it a podcast. It's an actual *interview.* No point in naming names because everyone has seen true scholars and experts stepped on CONSTANTLY by alleged interviewers. Dan Kurtz-Phelan is different. He not only poses excellent, penetrating questions. He allows people to *answer them* without dilatory interruptions. Podcasts are entertainment. This is better.

@NyPer920 Ай бұрын

Always enjoy listening to Prof Kotkin.

@johnnynephrite6147 28 күн бұрын

Russia/Putin is still playing from the old archaic "Its Easier To Steal From Your Neighbor Than To Develop Yourself" playbook.

@GameWatcher545 Ай бұрын

Yes! Stephen Kotkin, time to make food and watch

@shokuchideirdrecarrigan7402 Ай бұрын

Kotkin’s ironic ( or is it sarcastic) sense of humor is always a delightful surprise. Not having dinner with Putin these days? Unlike all those public commentators who claim to know Putin’s thinking. 🥹

@joiedevie3901 Ай бұрын

Absolutely BRILLIANT! Anyone knowing both Russia and France must find Kotkin's perspicacity in drawing the parallel between the two nations remarkably sublime and piercing. His observations are profound while also leaving one slapping one's own forehead for how obvious they seem--after, of course, he says them. Wish that he could have the White House's ear, whoever resides there, to provide insight into that unique nation. De Tocqueville, like Kotkin, nailed it in his observation about Russia and America and the parallel roles they would play in the world's destiny. Kotkin carries on in that great tradition of analysis and understanding. Thank you, Foreign affairs. Can't wait to read Kotkin's article!

@mat3714 Ай бұрын

This is my exact position....stop trying to analyze putin's mind and "real" projects. Just act on what he's doing and telling. Again, another great talk with a great guy.

@almiroff6949 Ай бұрын

It is mentally refreshing to listen to a cogent explaination of a complex issue(s). Thanks.

@jeffreysilverman3633 Ай бұрын

Outstanding interview with Professor Stephen Kotkin!! He is brilliant, incisive, perceptive and entertaining and this mix of ingredients is rare.

@vaughanbean1156 Ай бұрын

47:60 Nailed it. If you can't be bothered to listen to the whole thing, listen to the 5 minutes around this and you'll understand why we need to be listening to this guy and why it is so damaging that politicians on both sides of the Atlantic are deaf to this message and how tragic this is going to be to us all over the next 5 to 10 years. Again, thank you Stephen.

@longhaulblue Ай бұрын

Excellent. I really enjoyed Prof. Kotkin's insights.

@mamasonicarchives Ай бұрын

No, this is not the way to go. Mr Kotkin is believing that a deal with Russia is possible. That is not so. His whole argument falls on this simple point.

@diilouise Ай бұрын

I like Prof Kotkin's take on foreign policy and explaining it. Good questions, too. Thanks from 🇦🇺

@johnnydawson7675 Ай бұрын

Thank you, Professor, for letting us know that you are going to wrap up Stalin, Volume Three!

@howardking3601 Ай бұрын

I've learned a lot from this humble scholar, Kotkin. It's always a pleasure to listen to someone who is a Master of his subject. What clarity! Thanks!

@vaughanbean1156 Ай бұрын

22:41 Thank you Stephen Kotkin for sharing your grasp of affairs and your innate intelligence with us. Listening to you is a privilege.

@1stAma Ай бұрын

I really respect kotkin but it's sad to see how he is repeating Russian talking points about the negotiations in 2022. He's unfortunately also misrepresenting the negotiations. There never was a realistic prospect of peace.

@LearnHistoryS Ай бұрын

Kotin might be a good historian, but geopolitics is not his strength. Neverthless, I still appreciate his knowledge in Russian History.

@CyrisAeon Ай бұрын

Would love to hear your specific thoughts! What areas did his conclusions feel off base geopolitically?

@NiPaVou Ай бұрын

That's quality content. Thank you so much for this great interview. Mr. Kotkin is an excellent speaker.

@richardhouser508 Ай бұрын

Like so many people, I love listening to Stephen Kotkin declaiming on current events, politics, world history, and human nature. He is full of insights and surprises! I wish he would run for U. S. President!

@jeffheiner Ай бұрын

Thank you for sharing this excellent analysis! I really enjoyed all your points of view and realism on the Russia situation.

@frankshifreen Ай бұрын

Great as always love KOTKIN

@donaldstewart444 Ай бұрын

Kotkin is certainly a wonderful American gift.

@jmmasedotmicah Ай бұрын

Kotkin's insight is always illuminating. more of him for the benefit of all.

@VoidAspect Ай бұрын

Excellent insight from Stephen

@DamBevers Ай бұрын

Great talk. I think Mr. Kotkin is missing an important point: You cannot attribute much historical motivations to a people when it’s just one dictator controlling the country. China’s and Russia’s great history is not what drives its government or economy. It’s a dictator and a few collaborators that call all the shots. At the top of their priorities is self preservation and gaining more wealth. They use their peoples’ history as an excuse to make geopolitical moves. This same conflicting of national representation with dictators, more akin to organised crime, has been the downfall of democracies everywhere, and has to stop. The world will not be a safe and healthy place to live until the democracies eradicate dictatorships and enact a global citizen policy, removing passport restrictions and equalising humans of every origin and ethnicity.

@sergiubesliu4168 Ай бұрын

Mr.Kotkin is marvelous! Thanks Foreign Affairs for this wonderful talk!

@choudharya1234 Ай бұрын

Like this guy. good voice

@DJ_Gadfly Ай бұрын

Academic Joe Pesci

@anthonyduval3191 Ай бұрын

I love kotkin so much, used to follow him befire the war and hes so relevant right now

@augustaj3952 Ай бұрын

Thank you ☆

@Jason-ke1oi Ай бұрын

Thank you Mrs Kotkin. Thanks to FA`s staff members.

@vplatonova Ай бұрын

Since when capitulation is seen as ending the war "on favourable terms"???

@shokuchideirdrecarrigan7402 Ай бұрын

Clarity!! And the administration’s lack of it. So true. Very important observation!

@nilaychaturvedi5243 Ай бұрын

Even if one doesn't agree wth everything that Mr Kotkin says one hS to admire his breadth of thought nd the simple fact that he inspires you to think. 👍

@doitatit Ай бұрын

Remarkable! Brilliant! Sane! What a fantastic interview. Great question's. Thank you .

@luminyam6145 Ай бұрын

This is the first time I have listened to this man and already I love him.💖

@caroledepould-newmark9898 Ай бұрын

Unbelievably insightful and presented for the average listener. 50:51

@doitdiddy Ай бұрын

Always a pleasure to hear from Steven Kotkin.

@lewisyeadon4046 Ай бұрын

People disagreeing with Kotkin on the treaty/armistice question are missing the point entirely - yes, Russia is not trustworthy and will strive all they can to renege on any deals, but at least creating a temporary deal where the accession of Ukraine into NATO and the EU occurs would make any Russian gains or trickery meaningless. This why the definition of "victory" is so important; a situation where Ukraine takes back land and is locked in a forever war is not better than one where the voluntarily sign away land but gain the protections and prosperity required to rebuild in the West that Putin wants to move Ukraine away from.

@mythosboy Ай бұрын

Fantastic: Kotkin is up to his usual Olympian standards. He sketches a more convincing, if provisional, victory of the West than Fukuyama did 30 years ago. Hopeful, but realistic.

@iancurtis1152 Ай бұрын

A very balanced commentary on political affairs both present and past. Great to hear.

@caylynmillard76 Ай бұрын

Love the Kotkin. He’s like the Yoda of Hoover Inst.

@wseam1 Ай бұрын

Stephen is always incredibly insightful. Great interview.

@vredchenko Ай бұрын

Humorous to hear "russia" and "deal" in the same sentence.

@janazikmundova6794 Ай бұрын

Prof Kotkin's commitment to clarity is so helpful in today's jungle of ideas about Russia.

@rodcharles2798 13 күн бұрын

Putin wins the NATO recruitment award.

@jl8217 Ай бұрын

Mr. Kotkin always has something insightful to say, he is great!

@markgemmell3769 Ай бұрын

Spectacular interview. Many thanks for this to all involved.

@patrickshanley4466 Ай бұрын

Not as good as kotkins usual. But really looking forward to his THIRD book on Stalin. 👨‍🚒

@l.u.rehuher3714 Ай бұрын

Insightful interview from FA as always

@johndewey6358 Ай бұрын

Excellent review, I agree with most of the analysis❤. I wish the same type of interview could be done with Prof Kotkin about Iran and the future of Iran and its reliance on Russia and China.

@sven-gunnarappel8320 Ай бұрын

I'm not so sure that Russia is alone. How will the BRICS countries develop? We may have to start seeing the world with new eyes. What role will the global West have in the future?

@producer2123 Ай бұрын

Great interview. Foreign Affairs is superb. Even the promo music is elegant. Thank you!

@Joaodocaminhao0234 Ай бұрын

Thank you!

@John_13_35 Ай бұрын

Appreciate Kotkins work!

@amandacollyer645 29 күн бұрын

Great guest; I always learn from Kotkin

@charlesmackey8179 Ай бұрын

Always educational.

@williammorris584 Ай бұрын

Superb interview.

@sillyfolkers1318 27 күн бұрын

Insightful instructive and clear. Thanks!

@adriandis Ай бұрын

This was fantastic! Thank you

@nathanngumi8467 Ай бұрын

A great interview!

@johnhealy3973 Ай бұрын

Excellent Thank you so much!!

@CharlieNickell Ай бұрын

Nice piece. Stephen is sharp!

@bernardzsikla5640 Ай бұрын

My favorite content on KZbin is anything Stephen Kotkin does, yet I don't agree with one significant point regarding sanctions and their effects. Russia society is paying a cost with Western sanctions. It effects their economy as a whole and it effects every strata of Russian society. It will turn Russia as a technology wasteland at the worse time maybe in history, where western democracies/free market economies are soon to make the jump into the AI age. Ukraine doesn't have to win on the battlefield because Russia as a state and as a people has already lost.

@user-sq5bw2fc4n Ай бұрын

And the long term Putin effect: Putin has damaged the trust necessary to have binding agreements of any sort, by burning all of bridges necessary for relations with the west. Even if an negotiated peace is found, it is only a matter of time before Putin will break it. The question then becomes can Russia become a trustworthy partner after Putin? This is one question Stephen dances around. I agree the west needs to express the objectives much more clearly, so that China and passive enablers of Putin wake up and choose not to stand with Putin.

@clancywiggam Ай бұрын

I agree. I hope you are right!

@Dougohere1 Ай бұрын

Winning the peace with Putin by allowing him to keep annexed territory is just a wonderful gift to your brutal invader. He can then build up his economy over the next few years, but for Russia that means their war economy. Weapons and arms would also be built up to ensure outright victory on the next attempt to Russify the whole of Ukraine. Putin had made it clear on many occasions that he does not recognise Ukraine as a country, but that it can only be regarded as a part of Russia as it was.

@Joaodocaminhao0234 Ай бұрын

Thank you

@ThaFunkster100 Ай бұрын

Very interesting discussion, subscribed!

@bunyip7343 Ай бұрын

Excellent discussion.

@yordan9669 24 күн бұрын

Actually a great analysis! I am positively surprised!

@treesetc3305 Ай бұрын

This was an absolutely brilliant and enlightening discussion.

@VolodymyrFrolov Ай бұрын

There was never any real peace treaty on the table. What Kotkin doesn't talk about is that Russia is a trickster, it had a number of peace treaties with Ukraine and didn't respect any single one of them. Any such treaty would bind Ukraine, but it wouldn't bind Russia in any way, because they don't care about what's written in any of these treaties. Russia would just catch its breath and keep fighting. Knowing all of this very well, Kotkin still decides to lie into our faces.

@ChristofferETJ Ай бұрын

Interesting perspective. But I disagree with Stephen on the topic of an armastice in Ukraine 2022. Making that agreement would only make sense in a very short-sighted may, akin to corporations chasing their next quarterly without looking at the coming years. I do agree with Stephen later in the interview, when he dismisses appeasement in a conflict between two major powers. Appeasement, I find, should also be held to be untenable in the war between Russia and Ukraine.

@garydecad6233 Ай бұрын

Outstanding discussion 4:51

@TheWildEntrepreneur Ай бұрын

Awesome interview 👏👏👏

@bentrinker1937 Ай бұрын

What’s the meme saying about Russian history, Our future is certain but our past is unpredictable?

@martinhuntley5342 Ай бұрын

Stephen provides the best thought out political analysis of both the situation in Ukraine and the global realities that I have ever heard…….should be in every President’s think tanks……..

@hectorestrada3764 Ай бұрын

Great analysis

@jackiebinns6205 Ай бұрын

Interesting as anything i've heard thus far 🎉🎉

@user-xv6vk3nd8p Ай бұрын

We the people….in my travels over my life and in talking to the people in many countries without exception all want to be safe, housed, free (in thought, spiritually) have education for their children. Where this all ‘goes south’ is when political and religious ideals and human lust for power and greed is imposed on the populace. The west must be strong in projection of the principles that uphold those of we the people’. The principle of osmosis although slow should take over. No one wants to live in tyranny.

@lanreolaniyan6964 Ай бұрын

predict what trump might do??? Dammmm 😂😂😂

@wendykelling7738 Ай бұрын

Listening to this I got a glimpse of something I hadn't quite seen before - Putin seems obsessed with getting rid of all in the world who do not back him. I couldn't figure before why he seemed unperturbed at people fleeing from Russia but I guess they fit into the category of people he has got rid of? So good to hear Prof Kotkin's calm and wisdom. Thank you for good questions.