Stephen Kotkin: Russia’s Murky Future | Foreign Affairs Interview

[@imaginaryenterprises]

It's always great to hear Joe Pesci speak geopolitics!

[@donaldstewart444]

He’ll love that😅

[@BlueBaron3339]

😂😆🤣

[@cristiancea85]

I knew that he reminded me somebody, i cant unsee it now

[@shingnosis]

I'm a simple man. I see Kotkin video I click play.

[@chocaliciouz]

I really want to see a debate between Kotkin and Mearsheimer

[@serge-szawlow]

Kotkin talks about how Ukraine rejected peace treaties with Russia. And he never mentioned that Russia always, always breaks any treaty as soon as it sutis Moscow. The recent examples- Chechnya. Beofre that - FInland. Does Kotkin know about this? Of course! Why he ignores this, and pushes this idea about "treaties" with Russia? That's a good question.

[@HaukeLaging]

What would the Ukraine KZbin world be without Stephen Kotkin... 👏

[@peterwhite7428]

Stephen Kotkin is a man I would love to meet one day. He is brilliant and humble. I agree with him on everything he says, having spent a lot of time in Russia and Ukraine.

[@jaymacpherson8167]

I admire Professor Kotkin’s thinking and analyses. The winning the peace concept is wise. However, the road to winning the peace is sometimes cloaked in shadow. For instance…Arguing a mistake by Ukraine was made in not pursuing an armistice with Russia assumes Russia is trustworthy. Further, an armistice abandons the Ukrainians on the other side of the front line. Russia has been effective at agreeing without acting upon the agreements. I, for one, have no faith Russia would honor the terms of any agreement.

[@AJThielmann]

Agree

[@briancarl5566]

Agree with you 100%. I'm a huge fan of Kotkin as well, but he puts too much faith in the Russians honoring any sort of agreement long-term. Their record is bad on this. It wasn't in Ukraine's interest to have the world move on to other things - the Russians would have just sent the tanks back in, after everyone stopped paying attention.

[@petergreenwood7731]

Russia says it was the west who reneged on Minsk and Istanbul What did Merkel say about the Minsk agreement?

[@MG-ye1hu]

Agreements are not about trustworthiness but about balance of power. Such agreements only work if keeping them is more beneficial than breaking them by force of power. This is why the Munich agreement in 1938 was meaningless. Nazi Germany was the most powerful player at this time, and could break any agreement as they please, exactly what the US does today. A peace agreement with Russia can work if Nato is the the enforcer. Not because we trust Russia but because Nato is powerful enough to keep Russia in check.

[@American-In-Mykolaiv]

Kotkin is my favorite historian - he understand Russia and knows what the future holds for Russia, if they continue their"stand alone" policy. Putin is done, it is only a question of time.

[@Miloun]

Kotkin is a revelation to me. I only discovered him last year. His insight into current politics is unparalleled in both its depth and breadth. Mind blown. (AND he originally studied Czech, which is the language my old home country :D )

[@canadianmarauder1923]

I could listen to Steven talk all day. Guy is so interesting.

[@harrybaulz666]

Steve assumes russia would honor a armistice agreement. Ukraine and the baltics and Poland know better

[@esakoivuniemi]

I totally agree. It seems like Steve doesn't have a real grasp on Russia. Talking about an armistice just sounds naive to me. Russia has never honored a single agreement, ever. Plus, Steve's arguments feel very America-focused. If you ask me, Frank Kagan and Timothy Snyder are probably the best Russia experts in the USA right now.

[@TheParadoxDestroyer]

Mr. Kotkin may well be the most insightful person alive on foreign relations. Brilliant podcast. Kudos!

[@jeffreysilverman3633]

Outstanding interview with Professor Stephen Kotkin!! He is brilliant, incisive, perceptive and entertaining and this mix of ingredients is rare.

[@DavidH-ve4fm]

Could listen to Kotkin for hours.

[@Saunajallu]

And I do!

[@almiroff6949]

It is mentally refreshing to listen to a cogent explaination of a complex issue(s). Thanks.

[@luskvideoproductions869]

Kotkin makes some great points, but the idea of an armistice 2022 that the Russians would actually honor is ridiculous...they violated the Minsk agreement, the Budapest memorandum, etc...they constantly meddle with neighboring countries and their independence. How could we possibly think they would have agreed to anything in Oct.of 2022?

[@tamil.f.3734]

Wow! Someone talking sense about Russia and China. What a fresh and intelligent thinking! I salute you Stephen Kotkin!

[@listener523]

Whilst I appreciate and approve of Kotkin calling for clarity in our foreign policy? We haven't seen clearly stated mission objectives nor exit strategy since the Swartzkopf debriefing in Iraq 1.

[@NyPer920]

Always enjoy listening to Prof Kotkin.

[@vaughanbean1156]

22:41 Thank you Stephen Kotkin for sharing your grasp of affairs and your innate intelligence with us. Listening to you is a privilege.

[@richardhouser508]

Like so many people, I love listening to Stephen Kotkin declaiming on current events, politics, world history, and human nature. He is full of insights and surprises! I wish he would run for U. S. President!

[@warmaps78]

Yes! Stephen Kotkin, time to make food and watch

[@diilouise]

I like Prof Kotkin's take on foreign policy and explaining it. Good questions, too. Thanks from 🇦🇺

[@donaldstewart444]

Kotkin is certainly a wonderful American gift.

[@howardking3601]

I've learned a lot from this humble scholar, Kotkin. It's always a pleasure to listen to someone who is a Master of his subject. What clarity! Thanks!

[@NiPaVou]

That's quality content. Thank you so much for this great interview. Mr. Kotkin is an excellent speaker.

[@joiedevie3901]

Absolutely BRILLIANT! Anyone knowing both Russia and France must find Kotkin's perspicacity in drawing the parallel between the two nations remarkably sublime and piercing. His observations are profound while also leaving one slapping one's own forehead for how obvious they seem--after, of course, he says them. Wish that he could have the White House's ear, whoever resides there, to provide insight into that unique nation. De Tocqueville, like Kotkin, nailed it in his observation about Russia and America and the parallel roles they would play in the world's destiny. Kotkin carries on in that great tradition of analysis and understanding. Thank you, Foreign affairs. Can't wait to read Kotkin's article!

[@longhaulblue]

Excellent. I really enjoyed Prof. Kotkin's insights.

[@jmmasedotmicah]

Kotkin's insight is always illuminating. more of him for the benefit of all.

[@Jason-ke1oi]

Thank you Mrs Kotkin. Thanks to FA`s staff members.

[@luminyam6145]

This is the first time I have listened to this man and already I love him.💖

[@broskito6900]

I love kotkin so much, used to follow him befire the war and hes so relevant right now

[@LearnHistoryS]

Kotin might be a good historian, but geopolitics is not his strength. Neverthless, I still appreciate his knowledge in Russian History.

[@CyrisAeon]

Would love to hear your specific thoughts! What areas did his conclusions feel off base geopolitically?

[@bourquinnahtechnikag8633]

The point here is that this professor from the USA would lose his job if he were honest and said that the US national debt has increased enormously compared to the US GDP. Every US taxpayer is now half a million USD in debt. After all, it is the taxpayer who has to finance the national debt. If the USD were not a world currency, the USA would mutate into a third world country in no time. Hence the US hegemony...

[@choudharya1234]

Like this guy. good voice

[@DJ_Gadfly]

Academic Joe Pesci

[@jeffheiner]

Thank you for sharing this excellent analysis! I really enjoyed all your points of view and realism on the Russia situation.

[@BlueBaron3339]

Don't call it a podcast. It's an actual *interview.* No point in naming names because everyone has seen true scholars and experts stepped on CONSTANTLY by alleged interviewers. Dan Kurtz-Phelan is different. He not only poses excellent, penetrating questions. He allows people to *answer them* without dilatory interruptions. Podcasts are entertainment. This is better.

[@VoidAspect]

Excellent insight from Stephen

[@augustaj3952]

Thank you ☆

[@sergiubesliu4168]

Mr.Kotkin is marvelous! Thanks Foreign Affairs for this wonderful talk!

[@frankshifreen]

Great as always love KOTKIN

[@shokuchideirdrecarrigan7402]

Kotkin’s ironic ( or is it sarcastic) sense of humor is always a delightful surprise. Not having dinner with Putin these days? Unlike all those public commentators who claim to know Putin’s thinking. 🥹

[@philaman1972]

Prof. Kotkin is always a fountain of knowledge.

[@janazikmundova6794]

Prof Kotkin's commitment to clarity is so helpful in today's jungle of ideas about Russia.

[@nilaychaturvedi5243]

Even if one doesn't agree wth everything that Mr Kotkin says one hS to admire his breadth of thought nd the simple fact that he inspires you to think. 👍

[@jl8217]

Mr. Kotkin always has something insightful to say, he is great!

[@iancurtis1152]

A very balanced commentary on political affairs both present and past. Great to hear.

[@doitdiddy]

Always a pleasure to hear from Steven Kotkin.

[@desmcharris]

Remarkable! Brilliant! Sane! What a fantastic interview. Great question's. Thank you .

[@1stAma]

I really respect kotkin but it's sad to see how he is repeating Russian talking points about the negotiations in 2022. He's unfortunately also misrepresenting the negotiations. There never was a realistic prospect of peace.

[@Caylynmillard]

Love the Kotkin. He’s like the Yoda of Hoover Inst.

[@bernardzsikla5640]

My favorite content on KZbin is anything Stephen Kotkin does, yet I don't agree with one significant point regarding sanctions and their effects. Russia society is paying a cost with Western sanctions. It effects their economy as a whole and it effects every strata of Russian society. It will turn Russia as a technology wasteland at the worse time maybe in history, where western democracies/free market economies are soon to make the jump into the AI age. Ukraine doesn't have to win on the battlefield because Russia as a state and as a people has already lost.

[@user-sq5bw2fc4n]

And the long term Putin effect: Putin has damaged the trust necessary to have binding agreements of any sort, by burning all of bridges necessary for relations with the west. Even if an negotiated peace is found, it is only a matter of time before Putin will break it. The question then becomes can Russia become a trustworthy partner after Putin? This is one question Stephen dances around. I agree the west needs to express the objectives much more clearly, so that China and passive enablers of Putin wake up and choose not to stand with Putin.

[@clancywiggam]

I agree. I hope you are right!

[@marttivallila]

This is a brilliant discussion that accurately describes the global situation we find ourselves in. The biggest variable going forward in my judgment is the quality of American leadership, and this is the area in which there is the greatest uncertainty.

[@vaughanbean1156]

47:60 Nailed it. If you can't be bothered to listen to the whole thing, listen to the 5 minutes around this and you'll understand why we need to be listening to this guy and why it is so damaging that politicians on both sides of the Atlantic are deaf to this message and how tragic this is going to be to us all over the next 5 to 10 years. Again, thank you Stephen.

[@davidpitchford6510]

Excellent, non-intrusive, helpful examiner. Stephen Kotkin is the best of the best as always.

[@john1425]

What do we have to do to get a Kotkin-Mearsheimer discussion??

[@johnnydawson7675]

Thank you, Professor, for letting us know that you are going to wrap up Stalin, Volume Three!

[@mamasonicarchives]

No, this is not the way to go. Mr Kotkin is believing that a deal with Russia is possible. That is not so. His whole argument falls on this simple point.

[@VolodymyrFrolov]

There was never any real peace treaty on the table. What Kotkin doesn't talk about is that Russia is a trickster, it had a number of peace treaties with Ukraine and didn't respect any single one of them. Any such treaty would bind Ukraine, but it wouldn't bind Russia in any way, because they don't care about what's written in any of these treaties. Russia would just catch its breath and keep fighting. Knowing all of this very well, Kotkin still decides to lie into our faces.

[@wseam1]

Stephen is always incredibly insightful. Great interview.

[@markgemmell3769]

Spectacular interview. Many thanks for this to all involved.

[@shokuchideirdrecarrigan7402]

Clarity!! And the administration’s lack of it. So true. Very important observation!

[@cutcut1980]

Stephen Kotkin: Automatic thumbs up 🎉🎉🎉

[@John_13_35]

Appreciate Kotkins work!

[@peterwhite7428]

Always the most informed and articulate voice about Russia

[@producer2123]

Great interview. Foreign Affairs is superb. Even the promo music is elegant. Thank you!

[@l.u.rehuher3714]

Insightful interview from FA as always

[@sillyfolkers1318]

Insightful instructive and clear. Thanks!

[@rodcharles2798]

Putin wins the NATO recruitment award.

[@caroledepould-newmark9898]

Unbelievably insightful and presented for the average listener. 50:51

[@JamesKonzek-xr5zy]

I like Kotkin. Kotkin is our friend.

[@williammorris584]

Superb interview.

[@johndewey6358]

Excellent review, I agree with most of the analysis❤. I wish the same type of interview could be done with Prof Kotkin about Iran and the future of Iran and its reliance on Russia and China.

[@sven-gunnarappel8320]

I'm not so sure that Russia is alone. How will the BRICS countries develop? We may have to start seeing the world with new eyes. What role will the global West have in the future?

[@yordan9669]

Actually a great analysis! I am positively surprised!

[@vredchenko]

Humorous to hear "russia" and "deal" in the same sentence.

[@lewisyeadon4046]

People disagreeing with Kotkin on the treaty/armistice question are missing the point entirely - yes, Russia is not trustworthy and will strive all they can to renege on any deals, but at least creating a temporary deal where the accession of Ukraine into NATO and the EU occurs would make any Russian gains or trickery meaningless. This why the definition of "victory" is so important; a situation where Ukraine takes back land and is locked in a forever war is not better than one where the voluntarily sign away land but gain the protections and prosperity required to rebuild in the West that Putin wants to move Ukraine away from.

[@amandacollyer645]

Great guest; I always learn from Kotkin

[@DaboooogA]

Great discussion, particularly Kotkin's thoughts on the Korean question.

[@mat3714]

This is my exact position....stop trying to analyze putin's mind and "real" projects. Just act on what he's doing and telling. Again, another great talk with a great guy.

[@aaron4387]

I never get tired of listening to this great mans insightful commentary.

[@nathanngumi8467]

A great interview!

[@DamBevers]

Great talk. I think Mr. Kotkin is missing an important point: You cannot attribute much historical motivations to a people when it’s just one dictator controlling the country. China’s and Russia’s great history is not what drives its government or economy. It’s a dictator and a few collaborators that call all the shots. At the top of their priorities is self preservation and gaining more wealth. They use their peoples’ history as an excuse to make geopolitical moves. This same conflicting of national representation with dictators, more akin to organised crime, has been the downfall of democracies everywhere, and has to stop. The world will not be a safe and healthy place to live until the democracies eradicate dictatorships and enact a global citizen policy, removing passport restrictions and equalising humans of every origin and ethnicity.

[@adriandis]

This was fantastic! Thank you

[@peredavi]

Always fascinating listening to Kotkin. Genius.

[@Dougohere]

Winning the peace with Putin by allowing him to keep annexed territory is just a wonderful gift to your brutal invader. He can then build up his economy over the next few years, but for Russia that means their war economy. Weapons and arms would also be built up to ensure outright victory on the next attempt to Russify the whole of Ukraine. Putin had made it clear on many occasions that he does not recognise Ukraine as a country, but that it can only be regarded as a part of Russia as it was.

[@CharlieNickell]

Nice piece. Stephen is sharp!

[@ChristofferETJ]

Interesting perspective. But I disagree with Stephen on the topic of an armastice in Ukraine 2022. Making that agreement would only make sense in a very short-sighted may, akin to corporations chasing their next quarterly without looking at the coming years. I do agree with Stephen later in the interview, when he dismisses appeasement in a conflict between two major powers. Appeasement, I find, should also be held to be untenable in the war between Russia and Ukraine.

[@TheWildEntrepreneur]

Awesome interview 👏👏👏

[@DiversDesign]

I'm not really sure why mr Kotkin thinks russia would hold to any "peace agreement" that does not give them all or most of what they demand, why would they keep to that agreement even if they gained what they demand, or why he thinks such a "peace" that allows Ukraine to keep its sovereignty or ability to eventually join NATO is even any kind of an option. Its like thinking isis will keep to some agreement. In perpetuity. Considering all he knows about russia, which he explains in several great videos... this idea of "winning the peace" by loosing the war, or conceding defeat in any amounts, is surprisingly weird and even practically delusional.

[@brasstacks8984]

More please!

[@chriwa6830]

It really is annoying how the otherwise very respectable Kotkin keeps holding on to the illusion that Russia is willing - or even able to something like open negotiations and reliable results. Very misleading indeed.

[@martinhuntley5342]

Stephen provides the best thought out political analysis of both the situation in Ukraine and the global realities that I have ever heard…….should be in every President’s think tanks……..

[@vplatonova]

Since when capitulation is seen as ending the war "on favourable terms"???

[@mythosboy]

Fantastic: Kotkin is up to his usual Olympian standards. He sketches a more convincing, if provisional, victory of the West than Fukuyama did 30 years ago. Hopeful, but realistic.

[@nicholaselliott2484]

Leading us out of the wilderness. Love Kotkin!

[@wendykelling7738]

Listening to this I got a glimpse of something I hadn't quite seen before - Putin seems obsessed with getting rid of all in the world who do not back him. I couldn't figure before why he seemed unperturbed at people fleeing from Russia but I guess they fit into the category of people he has got rid of? So good to hear Prof Kotkin's calm and wisdom. Thank you for good questions.

[@gregtwomey1805]

Brilliant! 💙💛

[@bentrinker1937]

What’s the meme saying about Russian history, Our future is certain but our past is unpredictable?

[@tsentenari4353]

Question (as a layman), for anyone who shares Stephen Kotkin's position on not (unnecessarily) taking regime change off the table: If you use the threat of regime change as leverage, and successfully demonstrated your capacities by helping building up alternatives, supply them with relevant information, and what have you; and the authoritarian responds to that, by offering you a lot of what you wanted - what happens to the people you have been backing? Do you just drop them? It would seem that you have to do something along those lines, to make the authoritarian regime be willing to strike a deal - no? Stephen Kotkins suggestion does sound very compelling to me - except for the fact that I don't know how to answer this question.

[@Azo-MA]

I modestly disagree that Ukraine-Russian war will end. It will not end, it will freeze that is when neither side thinks can gain more with tolerable cost or, worse, risking its current position.

[@treesetc3305]

This was an absolutely brilliant and enlightening discussion.