It's true during surveys, a lot of people would hide their real answer, but when it's voting day, they will vote for whom they have always intended.
@sherrymiller230212 күн бұрын
I don't believe that is happening as much in this particular election. And one of the reasons why is that people don't take kindly to being told they are NOT seeing what they ARE seeing...
@HankSemoreButz11 күн бұрын
True. Trump 2024 🇺🇸
@lms293210 күн бұрын
@@HankSemoreButzwrong
@HankSemoreButz10 күн бұрын
@@lms2932 you’ll see I’m right 😉
@lms293210 күн бұрын
@@HankSemoreButz 🙄
@yamilethvsanchez625010 сағат бұрын
Is completely unfair this situation, the electoral map is red ❤❤ DT probably win the popular votes 🗳️ but it is irrational for United States 🇺🇸 and the citizens continue under Kamala I’m very sad 😔, please 🙏🏻 continue voting for DT,
@beteissier10 күн бұрын
The pollsters have a vested interest in the polls describing a very close race. the more incertain the race the more parties and others ask for polls.
@bernardguzman193810 күн бұрын
and the media has an incentive on reporting a "close race" via polls since (1) many polls are conducted by media outlets and (2) a blow out ahead of the actual election is not news worthy.
@johnwendland7908Күн бұрын
This
@josephthomasjr.655114 күн бұрын
That's one of the things that I like about Allan: he sticks to his guns. Once the prediction has been made, he does NOT deviate from it. CONSTANCY my friends! It's a word seldom employed; but an attribute always appreciated.
@Rashnak6614 күн бұрын
This is false....he said Biden was a lock to win.
@Sherry-f9y13 күн бұрын
The truth is she will win IF all her supporters show up to vote. Remember, there are more Democratic leaning voters than Trump supporters. Also, don't discount all of the Republicans who don't want Trump back in the White house.
@johnfox90113 күн бұрын
His keys make sense BUT he has made his final predictions at wildly different times ranging from 18 months before an election to 2 months.
@visitsoutherncalifornia93011 күн бұрын
Allan own TDS has him violating his 13 keys. By his own theory Harris lost the momentous was installed. His keys don’t take into account a situation where a candidate is installed and replaced. His keys don’t take into account assignation attempts which wildly creates variance. Cumo (who is an idiot) does mention 2000 or 2004 where Allan prediction was wrong and Bush won. He predicted Gore and then blamed the ballots as the issue which was a variance to his 13 keys. Right now he has major variance with an installed candidate and assignation attempts. His theory is out the window here
@hgservices557211 күн бұрын
Yeah , but it’s foolish . He was wrong I think in 2000. Looking at his own keys , Trump should win, seems he interprets his own keys in an odd manner because just looking at them Trump should win . I think this time he is fueled more by hope than logic
@Landslide-m4f10 күн бұрын
Get ready for the LANDSLIDE!!!
@LynnLee-fs3dp10 күн бұрын
🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸💙💙
@peterhildebrandt282710 күн бұрын
Hard to call election fraud on a tsunami :)
@sirfrancis961910 күн бұрын
@@LynnLee-fs3dp 32 days...um 32 days.....err ..um err..that's right 32 days........ good luck with that
@persico90178 күн бұрын
Bye-bye donny 😉
@elizabethcsicsery-ronay16338 күн бұрын
For Trump
@DokPBriMonКүн бұрын
bottomline now is that among the two candidates Trump articulates and addresses the issues of the working class and families, ❤
@bcb744314 күн бұрын
“They’re eating the dawgs!” 😅
@clarkthesharkshow994414 күн бұрын
Haha.. Lol ... Trump is going to Win easy ...the media knows it ...and he was never down ... the fake media made it all up....
@XJSSBill13 күн бұрын
a wonderful meaningless post
@BillOptional13 күн бұрын
changed everything....the most utterly weird thing ever said in ANY presidential debate, and I remember Kennedy/Nixon...
@davejohnson947413 күн бұрын
@@BillOptionalwhat did it change? No one even cares anymore... it was funny for a few days, but now?
@donaldkinder671613 күн бұрын
😆 time for the OLD man TRUMP too go senile old BASTARD in 2 yrs trump will not know were he's at the way he talks
@unclebrucelive10 күн бұрын
"We're Not Just Political Pundits, We're Hair Club Clients Too!"
@startwithgina573210 күн бұрын
You’re a clown🤡🙄🤮
@TesterBoy9 күн бұрын
😂😂😂
@theessentials4502 күн бұрын
the real WHIG PARTY!
@ojimamaha135813 күн бұрын
Trump will break his prediction streak this time
@spencerdobkin947913 күн бұрын
He was wrong in 2000. He said Gore would win.
@mohamedcamara87852 күн бұрын
@@spencerdobkin9479 Al Gore did win . We all know what happened
@ranelgallardo7031Күн бұрын
@@spencerdobkin9479Yeah but that was super close and there’s an asterisk to that election
@derekgoncz797014 күн бұрын
I respect Lichtman’s work, but our elections are predictable enough that people can choose the winner based on momentum at various points. In fact most have been easy to predict.
@GerMUFC199614 күн бұрын
Did you pick 2016? The polls and momentum were all for Clinton right up to Election Day.
@HarrySatchelWhatsThatSmell14 күн бұрын
But Lichtman has gotten the tough one's right and made the pollsters and the pundits look silly more than once.
@factman-w8m14 күн бұрын
Polls are nonsense because they poll from "LIKELY VOTERS" meaning voters who voted in 2020, 2016,etc. Well, The october surprise, Chris, is the WAVE of NEW voters, Woman, Young, america saving new voters who want trump gone, etc. That's why on election day, there will be a tsunami wave of Harris votes and trump will lose by a landslide ON ELECTION DAY
@marvinsykes14 күн бұрын
NO ONE PICKED TRUMP IN 2016 but him. I'm surprised he was accurate.
@magnusalexander296514 күн бұрын
@@marvinsykes Michael Moore did. He's predicting Harris this year too, so hopefully my worries are unfounded. But after 2016 I will never again overestimate Americans
@richardkluesek430110 күн бұрын
Bein' "Brat" while joyful and vibed is not Presidential. Dodging a bullet more than once ( 3 times ?) and withstanding intensive lawfare, media hostility, and being the underdog for the last 9 years is astonishing.
@mmusya79310 күн бұрын
Wow professor Lichtman is not a joker 😂😂😂. Doesn't waver a bit!
@darthlestrange14 күн бұрын
Allan Litchman said that Biden was totally fine and that he should stay in the race. When cuomo pushed back by saying he’s suffering from mental decline he said “you don’t know that, that is not true” he’s the only person in America that thinks that.
@MH-ro1lg14 күн бұрын
Harris and tens of millions of other partisans also had their heads in the sand when it came to his dementia
@bettyannewilkinson868614 күн бұрын
Biden was doing fine. With age he slow down a lot. Trump should be removed by the GOP. Its like watching elder abuse. In Detroit all he did was fart. You could hear it. 😂😂
@vincesmith249914 күн бұрын
We have no idea whether Chump would have actually beaten Biden.
@Brakdayton14 күн бұрын
We cannot know whether Lichtman was correct or not. We do know that he has not been wrong before.
@darthlestrange14 күн бұрын
This guy it’s an idiot and totally bias if you have a couple of minutes watch his prediction with Cuomo from 3 months ago. He’s the only one on America that think Biden is “quick on his feet” this idiot posted some “breaking news” that he received news from the Biden campaign that Biden was staying in the race and a couple of hours later Biden dropped out lol
@chambersstevens313514 күн бұрын
It is amazing how much Frank has changed. It is like he has had an epiphany! Much nicer guy. I am happy for him.
@nathannewman79914 күн бұрын
tough times will do that to a man
@chesterhaduca702914 күн бұрын
If Lichtman is right, why Kamala’s campaign is worried?
@stanmoroncini882514 күн бұрын
They’d be foolish not too. trump campaign is nervous too. It’s just human nature.
@muliyechuula909814 күн бұрын
@@stanmoroncini8825 exactly!!!
@muliyechuula909814 күн бұрын
Trump campaign is also nervous don't be cheated.......and it's normal and human to be worried and nervous
@factman-w8m14 күн бұрын
Polls are nonsense because they poll from "LIKELY VOTERS" meaning voters who voted in 2020, 2016,etc. Well, The october surprise, Chris, is the WAVE of NEW voters, Woman, Young, america saving new voters who want trump gone, etc. That's why on election day, there will be a tsunami wave of Harris votes and trump will lose by a landslide ON ELECTION DAY
@johnfox90113 күн бұрын
In 2016 he predicted Trump would win the popular vote but he barely won via the electoral college and lost the pop vote. . In 2020 he correctly predicted that Biden would win the popular vote and the electoral college and Biden won the popular vote as expected but barely won the EC.
@chetisanhart345714 күн бұрын
I picked Villanova to beat Georgetown in the NCAA championship. I was laughed at when I said Buster Douglas had a chance. Can I be on tv now ?
@factman-w8m14 күн бұрын
I knew when tyson was knocked down twice in sparring for Douglas, he wasn't prepared mentally or physically, then when I heard he was fornicating with japanese woman before the fight. of course he would lose to a big strong good fundamental boxer in perfect shape and fighting for his dead mom. BTW, let me educate you on polling. Polls are nonsense because they poll from "LIKELY VOTERS" meaning voters who voted in 2020, 2016,etc. Well, The october surprise, is the WAVE of NEW voters, Woman, Young, america saving new voters who want trump gone, etc. That's why on election day, there will be a tsunami wave of Harris votes that weren't even factored in on the polls and trump will lose by a landslide ON ELECTION DAY
@Sherry-f9y13 күн бұрын
You're on KZbin. Congrats.
@jad10799 күн бұрын
Two legends of elections predictions: Lichtman and Luntz.
@janicejohnston42869 күн бұрын
Luntz predictions are not accurate. He stated Trump would win the last election he did not!
@meisievannancy13 күн бұрын
Well in my opinion Alan's keys are as he interprets them. Another person might interpret them differently so how can they be reproduceable by someone else ?
@taylorcampbel963913 күн бұрын
Anyone can use his keys and come up with different prediction. it's like using the farmers almanac to tell the weather 3 months out it's pointless.
@meisievannancy13 күн бұрын
@@taylorcampbel9639 Yep
@davidcallahan28326 күн бұрын
@@taylorcampbel9639 Anyone can't use them to come up with different results because they do not adequately comprehend the factors that go into each of the 13 keys. You apparently do not either. There are plenty of Lichtman's detailed explanations of the keys and how they are factored here on KZbin.
@KrunkDiddelyUmptious5 күн бұрын
@@davidcallahan2832 yes and he has back peddled a number of times
@davidcallahan28324 күн бұрын
@@KrunkDiddelyUmptious What are you talking about? In the only metric that counts, he has gone on record and predicted outcomes correctly for forty years, except in 2000 when SCOTUS did the unprecedented and picked the candidate they wanted to win. Subsequent recounts in Florida showed Gore actually won those counties in question, so Lichtman was both right and wrong.There was no back-pedalling. You are nit-picking. You are free to come up with your own system, and when you have correctly called ten out of ten we pay attention.
@hasher1000114 күн бұрын
Luntz should get a new wig if Trump loses..
@vistaprime14 күн бұрын
He uses it to attract the twinks he dates.
@hgservices557211 күн бұрын
When Trump wins frank needs to get a blonde Trump piece 😂
@digitalpalmtrees10 күн бұрын
He can borrow one of Allan Lichtman's rugs.
@vistaprime9 күн бұрын
@@digitalpalmtrees That's lichtman's actual hair. Believe it or not. He does dye it but it's it's actual hair.
@stroyer21034 күн бұрын
I'm starting to like Cuomo more. CNN made him to left leaning. He seems to be pretty moderate at heart
@thewoodmoose3 күн бұрын
He just sees Dems 💩 like many do
@rubyjefferson328410 күн бұрын
Thank you Mr. Lichtman!!
@johnfox9015 күн бұрын
Lichtman in 2016 " The keys predict the popular vote not the state by state tally in the electoral college vote " ( The Keys to the White House October 2016). He then went on to predict Trump would win but with the major caveat that he was historically unpopular. So Lichtman was half right in 2016.
@nebo995 күн бұрын
He was not half right. He predicted who would win...period. And Trump one.
@behrensf8414 күн бұрын
It’s a win win for Litchman. If he’s right, he sells millions of books. If he’s wrong, he sells millions of door stoppers…
@vincesmith249914 күн бұрын
He's never been wrong.
@philipm504314 күн бұрын
@@vincesmith2499 He predicted Trump would win the popular vote in 2016.
@chesterhaduca702914 күн бұрын
@@vincesmith2499NEVER??? 😂😂😂
@stanmoroncini882514 күн бұрын
@@philipm5043no he didn’t. The keys don’t predict popular vote. Stop lying.
@reclue761714 күн бұрын
Wrong in 2000 😂😂
@सुंदरनायक-ड1म2 күн бұрын
I am going to vote for Trump Nov 5, 2024!
@voxpopuli566314 күн бұрын
I am with Luntz -Trump has the definite advantage so far
@hwnsrfaboy4314 күн бұрын
trump is going to lose.
@vincesmith249914 күн бұрын
Nope. He's finished.
@afflictedreader670014 күн бұрын
Trump has the advantage? Lmao already coping
@mrjuvy4914 күн бұрын
no advantage , women will pull this off.
@mrjuvy4914 күн бұрын
LMAO, is that code word for Trump losing?
@HarrisonHollers12 күн бұрын
Three guys I like to hear from throughout the election cycle. All from different backgrounds and with varying perspectives. This country is not as divided as portrayed by some out there.
@Anna-b8e1t12 күн бұрын
Are you serious the white supremacists went to Springfield Ohio after trump said Haitians were eating pets. They were threaten with bombs attacks on their schools, hospitals shopping centers and churches.
@mw35414 күн бұрын
Whichever party wins, there will be mayhem regardless
@christopherlauderdale14 күн бұрын
Hopefully no civil war.
@vidan301814 күн бұрын
why? nobody wants that apart from truly a handful MAGA. it is really one sided.
@Muhammadfez114 күн бұрын
Much less of mayhem under Trump
@wnica114 күн бұрын
😂
@Wilett61414 күн бұрын
sadly , i agree
@PL2550Dolphins14 күн бұрын
Early voting hard numbers are siding with Allan Lichtman, added to his point @5:36 with the outcome in 2022, 2023, and 2024.
@Icipher414 күн бұрын
Early voting always sides with Democrats.
@glostergloster694514 күн бұрын
@@Icipher4 Which is why convincing voters to vote early is a good tactic and good strategy. Lock in your voters as early as possible.
@PL2550Dolphins14 күн бұрын
@@Icipher4 Yes, but the numbers are greater than usual at this same time. Especially in VA.
@AnthonyPanepinto-t4e14 күн бұрын
Trump ahead in early voting and republican registration
@PL2550Dolphins14 күн бұрын
@AnthonyPanepinto-t4e The best thing that will come out of Kamala Harris winning the election will be once her AG ends Trump, we won't have to deal with the delusional lies and misinformation that gullible people like you run with.
@litedawg14 күн бұрын
Battle of the hairpieces !
@HolisticTraumaTherapy14 күн бұрын
You must be referring to Trump and his minion
@litedawg14 күн бұрын
@@HolisticTraumaTherapy do better nerd
@VS-de7xk14 күн бұрын
@@HolisticTraumaTherapyquiet wine aunt
@yvonnezimmerman157014 күн бұрын
That's Alan's real hair..
@tino684613 күн бұрын
@@yvonnezimmerman1570😂 Yeah sure 😂
@Channel--Ai13 күн бұрын
Looks like lichtman might be wrong this time. His keys are great its just that economy is crap for too many to give harris that key and foreign policy has been a disaster as in total fail, so that key should be off as well. In the foriegn wars key I think.
@underwaterlevelz194713 күн бұрын
Lichtman should have refused to make a pick after Democrats forced Joe Biden to drop out after he had already won the nomination. It's never happened before in presidential politics, and his model does not take into account such a bizarre turn of events so late in the campaign.
@stephencullum825512 күн бұрын
The economy is not crap and have been very good. Which one of his keys picked up. Biden built up NATO that Trump had weaken and tried to destroy. That with help to Ukraine stopped Russia from concurring it. That was another of the professors keys. A foreign policy victory. Do you know what gaslighting is ?
@1362pc12 күн бұрын
The US economy is the strongest its EVER been...stop the lies
@vecernicek211 күн бұрын
Lichtman is a pseudo-scientist, no reason to take him seriously. He doesn't know the difference between correlation and causality and it's not at all clear the he's basing his predictions on what he says he is basing them on. If his method was a real scientific method, it would be independent of its 'discoverer'. I don't think we need to consult Mr. Fahrneheit/Celsius every time we look at the thermometer, do we? That's because thermometer is an actual thing, working on established principles, rather than snake oil.
@danaterry497511 күн бұрын
I believe God chose Trump for this time and no key will change that and things are getting over turned May God get all the glory for this. Trump is a fighter and here we go 2016 only higher
@Nicolas-ig1bf14 күн бұрын
The fact Frank doesn’t make a pick is pretty much saying, I don’t want to say that Trump will win big
@afflictedreader670014 күн бұрын
or it could just be he knows that polls are bullshit. I like how you project your own views onto democratic voters 😂 no democrat in their right mind will vote for the Epstein-loving Trump
@mrjuvy4914 күн бұрын
HUH, what?
@stanmoroncini882514 күн бұрын
Lol okay bro
@factman-w8m14 күн бұрын
Polls are nonsense because they poll from "LIKELY VOTERS" meaning voters who voted in 2020, 2016,etc. Well, The october surprise, Chris, is the WAVE of NEW voters, Woman, Young, america saving new voters who want trump gone, etc. That's why on election day, there will be a tsunami wave of Harris votes and trump will lose by a landslide ON ELECTION DAY
@JC-2147013 күн бұрын
100% correct - Frank gave away his disdain for Trump long ago and missed the 2016 call for Trump to win by HUGE margins!
@jimspaulding825511 күн бұрын
Please tell Mr. Lichtman that this is a different race. He is 9 of 10 but I am 16 of 16 in my life.
@dman766811 күн бұрын
He hears this alot. It would be amazing if he would be wrong this time, but I doubt it
@ShereeTinker11 күн бұрын
Every race has been different & he has picked correctly since 1981. He chose Gore in 2000 & SCOTUS caused the only hiccup in his predictions.
@donnieconner727810 күн бұрын
WHAT/
@Thruff-g1f10 күн бұрын
I'm 213/214.
@persico90178 күн бұрын
🙄🙄🙄🙄 yeah, that's why you're so famous 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
@lizawald157114 күн бұрын
I DONT BELIEVE IN POLL
@J0hnnyTheKid4 күн бұрын
Fast forward this video aged well 😊
@JorgeGarcia-br7dh5 күн бұрын
TRUMP 2024 🎉
@sarelvanderwalt713412 күн бұрын
he must retire with Biden
@M_Pross10 күн бұрын
Harris loses 7 or 8 keys. Looks like Trump will win.
@bernardguzman193810 күн бұрын
Suuuurree
@monicab284 күн бұрын
I agree!
@Courageous32111 күн бұрын
Litchtman is not all that professional. Ultra biased. So much so, it likely influences his so called system. I appreciate how Luntz tries to remain neutral.
@serenadevon11 күн бұрын
He loves the rats.
@ShereeTinker11 күн бұрын
How can he be biased. He called trump in 2016 when all others were calling a Hilary win. He has a letter from trump saying thank you for the prediction. He’s a historian.
@zuzanazuscinova52099 күн бұрын
@@ShereeTinkerI predicted Trump would win 2016, so he wasn't the only one.
@johngreen98649 күн бұрын
One of his keys says Trump has no charisma. His hatred for Trump is causing him to stretch on some of them to get to a Harris win.
@rolandconnor57512 күн бұрын
Lichtman will have more to worry about than butterflies when this is over. I bet nobody has him on
@coolasice756012 күн бұрын
he got a damn good record it is going to be a harris landslide
@JT-yz4rj12 күн бұрын
@@coolasice7560Right, except for the fact that it’s not. How can it be a landslide when she’s going to lose?
@barbarafuller509812 күн бұрын
Every body has had him on .. he's never been wrong in 40 years
@JT-yz4rj11 күн бұрын
@@barbarafuller5098 He also said that Biden’s mental state was perfectly fine prior to July. Stop buying the false hope. Everyone can predict an election when you change your predictions on election night.
@tamarapruwer63410 күн бұрын
Ppl still need to vote nobody won
@casablanca274514 күн бұрын
Disagree on dismissing an October surprise. James Comey’s findings on Hillary Clinton proved damning and probably cost her the election.
@tomodul261914 күн бұрын
Hillary Clinton was going to lose anyway because of how disliked she was and then Trump used Baghazi and the missing emails. She wasn't inspiring her voters a lot though she still lost very narrowly.
@natashatomlinson454814 күн бұрын
Nonsense . You people need to drop that excuse /fable
@randomami817614 күн бұрын
I just don’t think those October’s surprises are surprises any more.
@OrangutanKiller-pq5rm14 күн бұрын
and he may have murdered over 1 million Americans indirectly as a result!
@leechap314 күн бұрын
Could be, yet by that metric Trump has one October surprise after another for the last how many years and nobody seems to change their mind. For some reason Trump is graded on a different scale than everybody else.
@RelaxedPuppy4 күн бұрын
October surprise: Israel launches a major attack on Iran, possibly their nuclear power plants
@staroftheshow014 күн бұрын
This is the same guy who predicted Al Gore was going to be the president. 😂
@michaelcorazzini686914 күн бұрын
Yea, he was WAY off on that one. Gore won the popular vote by close to 600k and he lost by only 530 votes in Florida for the Presidency. Yea, he was way off on that one! 😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆
@RyanCMcD14 күн бұрын
He's 9 from 10 in the last 10 elections. Pretty good record if you ask me.
@zipscrews14 күн бұрын
@@RyanCMcDthat means nothing...I picked the last 7 super bowl winners...so what...
@RyanCMcD14 күн бұрын
@@zipscrews Well shit, every pollster in the world needs to retire then since some rando super bowl genius says 'so what'
@vincesmith249914 күн бұрын
Gore did win. That's why SCOTUS literally stole the election.
@judywelch53876 күн бұрын
Chris leave the room so these 2 can get it on.
@akent639314 күн бұрын
While I was inclined to follow what Lichtman had to say…it’s clear to me he has a bias against Trump. As Trump is ahead in the swing states and people as well as the media are trashing Harris right now.
@hwnsrfaboy4314 күн бұрын
That’s bs. Trump is not leading in the swing states. Regardless of what Lichan says. Right now Harris is leading but very slightly. Harris is going to win.
@jessecortez920214 күн бұрын
He predicted that Trump was going to win 2016. So, there is no bias against Trump for this year or 2020.
@tomodul261914 күн бұрын
@@akent6393 Do you remember that Hillary Clinton was a head in 2016 in almost all the polls?
@leechap314 күн бұрын
Try not to confuse your wishful thinking with reality. Trump drew to an inside straight in 2016 and has done nothing but lose ever since. PA for example has been solid Blue since 1992 and was again in 2020, Add hundreds of thousands of new GenZ voters skewing heavily Dem and women pissed off about the Dobbs decision, it is highly unlikely he can win there. Harris also has more money and a vastly better ground organization.
@duitk14 күн бұрын
@@tomodul2619 Shhhh republicans only trust the polls if it shows them winning.
@DokPBriMonКүн бұрын
the unprecedented turn out of early election today is not read in so called 13 keys, today's sentiment is completely different,
@konasmom245711 күн бұрын
They keep trying to hurt Trump, third time yesterday, what do you know Lichtman??
@benjierodriguez651811 күн бұрын
Who keeps trying to hurt Trump? Please, be specific, don't generalize, and substantiate with facts.
@mariepowell361811 күн бұрын
@@benjierodriguez6518the truth hurts don’t it
@serenadevon11 күн бұрын
@@benjierodriguez6518do your research...all over the Internet.
@konasmom245711 күн бұрын
@@benjierodriguez6518 well let’s see first guy, Thomas crooks, 2nd guy ryan routh, yesterday was Vern Miller, and the other guy I have to look up, hold on
@konasmom245711 күн бұрын
@@benjierodriguez6518 Thomas crooks shot President Trump in Butler Pennsylvania and was K I l led by secret service, Ryan Routh was hiding in the bushes while President Trump was trying to golf, secret service saw him. S h o t at him then he ran the police chased him down during a pursuit, I don’t know too much about yesterdays guy, it was in Coachella Ca, his vehicle was full of g u n s, this will probably get deleted, where have you been? You must listen to main stream media.
@LKKMD2 күн бұрын
Kamala can win easily if she stops responding with the same phrase all the time .She has to go off script and bring her own point.Also explain like Obama why this or that. People think she plays too safe and that hurt
@pedroalamo589613 күн бұрын
The border is a crisis ❤❤❤❤
@JesseWhite-ri6yn11 күн бұрын
Nobody is going to lie and say they are voting for Trump
@Bass-Boomer10 күн бұрын
Trump has more support than the polls show because some of Trump's MAGA Christian hypocrite cult hates MSM and they will lie to MSM and say they're NOT voting for Trump.
@JuanEspinal-o3b11 күн бұрын
Ese no sabes nada liman ese es un anti tromp voy a tromp
@ihorperec49909 күн бұрын
jajajajaja No digas tonterias por favor
@savannahshines36335 күн бұрын
The government chooses who they want to win - t to hats a fact
@reelrocknrolla425113 күн бұрын
The problem with Licthman's prediction, its that he misapplied his keys to favor Harris. For example there IS a third party candidate (RFK) because he was kept on the ballot in 3 swing states.
@ZombieSandwiches13 күн бұрын
Being on the ballot doesn't mean he's still running. He dropped out of the race already and lost percentage. By that logic of "being on the ballot," that would mean every presidential race had a 3rd party candidate.
@LuisEstevez-o3g13 күн бұрын
And Jill Stein and Cornell West. Let's take MI for instance, close to 100 000 Muslim voters rejected Joe Biden in the primary due to the war in Gaza. Months forward the war is not only not done but getting worse and threatening to spread further in the region. Does Kamala now get those votes? I doubt it, therefore Trump should win MI logically. Yet Allan believes that key goes to Kamala to your point. Allan doesn't take the Gaza war as a major international conflict. Like you said, nothing wrong with the keys, just his bias is blinding him which is sad.
@duckid7313 күн бұрын
Harris has 9 keys and Trump has 4 keys. Even if your assertion was correct, which isn't going to factor into anything, Trump would still lose 8 to 5.
@ImEricBro13 күн бұрын
You have misunderstood what the third party candidate key is about (key 4). It doesn't have anything to do with whether or not there IS a third party candidate, it is whether or not they are in a position to have an impact on the outcome of the race. There are always third party candidates in every election and many of them are on state ballots. The key requires that a third party candidate consistently poll at 10% or higher because it would then mean that they'd pull in about 5% of the national vote which is enough to sway the results of the election. At this point, RFK Jr. is polling at less than 2% nationally which means his impact on the outcome is virtually zero.
@SilverSergeant12 күн бұрын
@@duckid73 That just isn't true if applied truthfully.
@pameladelisser485913 күн бұрын
0:46 Yes Professor. I am almost 72 yrs. Old. I am not mocking. .A. couple of experts have noted that some years ago, when you were more alert, you. would have interpreted your model to be a Trump. victory. You still have time to make a correction. I am with you all the way.
@GalinaNisnevich-v6s12 күн бұрын
Yes, I agree entirely!!!
@bethanyelaine994911 күн бұрын
Trump is "unhinged?" Stop the buzz words. He's extremely rational and even. He just speaks his mind and people can't handle the truth.
@lindawise465211 күн бұрын
He is not making any sense these days. Worse than ever.
@criminalnchief598911 күн бұрын
Yeah he spoke his mind when he lied about covid causing the deaths of 3000 Americans every day
@sirfrancis961911 күн бұрын
@@criminalnchief5989 and elmer Fudd lied about his military service...his trip to China, his IVF use..........his hunting expertise...lol. Harris lied about everything ....fracking, the border, trans surgery for inmates, inflation, Afghanistan debacle, Biden's mental state......she has got a single vote to be where she is.
@xxvilnchiixxlol64717 күн бұрын
Ha ha ha ha ha
@davidcallahan28326 күн бұрын
He hasn't got much of a mind left to speak.
@DokPBriMonКүн бұрын
there is no absolute fundamentals in elections,
@michaelrussell259311 күн бұрын
1:40 Trump never bragged about assaulting women
@nudnick9 күн бұрын
You’re deaf, dumb, and blind. Access Hollywood tape. Ever hear it?
@trishallenson46919 күн бұрын
Have you listened to the tape? Or is that behavior you find appropriate in your relationships?
@user-zp8ol5ym8y9 күн бұрын
Ya he did. And it’s disgusting
@aceofbassmoore70939 күн бұрын
Liar
@michaelrussell25938 күн бұрын
@@aceofbassmoore7093 I believe he said when you are a billionaire, they let you. Even while conducting lockerroom talk he mention consent.
@sunheri18911 күн бұрын
Hari is was up 3 points a month ago in Michigan. Now she is barely up by less than a point. Gaza issue is the death of her. We can’t win without Michigan. Very distressing. Trump made up 3 points and moment is with him. 😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢
@xbulsara10 күн бұрын
Frank Luntz is a very sophisticated tool.
@WatrfrontTampa5 күн бұрын
Lichtman understands the logic behind the polls having nothing to do with the actual day of voting. There are too many variables in polling - bacause we are HUMANS - and humans are all different and unpredictable by looking at a tiny percentage of voters. Polls are a MEDIA strategy to keep people tuned into and watching news channels. By stating that the polls are 50/50 all time, keeps the security of the candidates safer, and also allows for suspense around the world!
@GG2002_NJ11 күн бұрын
I like Lichtman’s model, I just don’t agree with his answers to his model’s questions. And I don’t think voters do either. Lichtman’s model was predicating a Biden win in 24 too.
@dman766811 күн бұрын
Who knows. With Biden out we will never know.
@ShereeTinker10 күн бұрын
Because he’s the incumbent. His keys are based on the White House & the current president. The Democrats lost a key when Biden pulled out. Kamala is still part of the incumbency being VP so all other keys that were for the White House stayed blue. Not difficult to understand really.
@onephatdude10 күн бұрын
Yeah I think he's wrong. This economy sucks. Inflation is killing people and the dems got us
@M_Pross10 күн бұрын
@@dman7668 There was no way Biden was going to win with the poll numbers he was getting.
@LynnLee-fs3dp10 күн бұрын
@@onephatdudelies! 🙄Inflation is low, crime is low, stock market is booming!
@rezong189811 күн бұрын
The whole world is watching how Aericans are going to wisely vote for the right candidate, when elected, will be the most powerful man/woman in the world.
@stevenapodaca69528 күн бұрын
Media must submit statistical process regarding polls otherwise the polls mean nothing!!!
@tanya4127710 күн бұрын
Lichtman couldnt see through his TDS to make a goid call if he needed to.
@PianoUniverse10 күн бұрын
He picked trump in 2016
@Timmyjl2510 күн бұрын
Yall literally wake up and say dumb shii.
@patricktufly966210 күн бұрын
His record literally proves you wrong. Literally hpe stupid are you people
@sarahdixon19438 күн бұрын
He said, "Trump has incredible STAIN power," right??? 😆 🤣 😂
@scotttimothy6413 күн бұрын
Lichtman's system relies on too much subjectivity. Charisma? Come on. So does 12 cancel out 13 or visa versa? 10 cancel out 11?
@rafaelsantana28348 күн бұрын
Grea for litchman.
@ChannelH.Dunbar-lw7qg13 күн бұрын
Thanks Professor Alan L
@dennisharrell223610 күн бұрын
I would say that the 2016 October surprise was the FBI announcing reopening the Hillary emails investigation.
@JayKno42011 күн бұрын
Frank already called this race for Harris post debate, remember!
@persico90178 күн бұрын
Yup, and Lichtman predicted it weeks before that 😉
@meinkraft22848 күн бұрын
Lichtman's downfall is the 2 economy keys which revolves around perception, it's not the stock market, it's the affordability of basic goods.
@rosskarsk5182311 күн бұрын
Isn’t it sad that people are voting for Kamala just because they hate Trump?
@benjierodriguez651811 күн бұрын
@@rosskarsk51823 No one hates him, we just know that he's the most disgraceful, incompetent, fraudulent, and dangerous former president to ever hold office. That's not hate, we're just worried about how much more damage he could do to ourcountry if he is reelected.
@JESTERSCOOTER11 күн бұрын
Isn't it sad that anyone would want more of covid 45 who handed Biden a destroyed economy after Obama gave trump a great economy
@gospeljoy571311 күн бұрын
More than hate. He is incompetent. It is sad that fantasyland candidate is trying to be in charge.
@mst3kpimp11 күн бұрын
is it sad to eat pizza hut if the alternative is red baron?
@JESTERSCOOTER11 күн бұрын
@@mst3kpimp it's sad trump destroyed Obama's economy and Biden needed to fix it
@davidsonowski41414 күн бұрын
ECONOMY ECONOMY ECONOMY period
@vincesmith249914 күн бұрын
There's no recession.
@duitk14 күн бұрын
Nope, Obama won even though Romney was trusted more on the economy. People don't vote with logic they vote with their feelings.
@shawncrawford314614 күн бұрын
Trump inherited a growing economy and crashed it on his way out the door. The USA has the strongest economy in the world. And Trump's economic plan of across the board tariffs has the backing of not one serious economist anywhere.
@GerMUFC199614 күн бұрын
The economy is doing great. Inflation is down (I accept prices are still too high), interest rates are falling and the stock market is currently at all time highs.
@factman-w8m14 күн бұрын
Trump gave to biden the WORST economy ever, Worst unemployment in HISTORY. Yeah, you want to talk about that one? HArris by a landslide ON ELECTION DAY. Polls are nonsense because they poll from "LIKELY VOTERS" meaning voters who voted in 2020, 2016,etc. Well, The october surprise, Chris, is the WAVE of NEW voters, Woman, Young, america saving new voters who want trump gone, etc. That's why on election day, there will be a tsunami wave of Harris votes and trump will lose by a landslide ON ELECTION DAY
@matthewstrauts542714 күн бұрын
I like the wig on the guy on the left and the way Luntz dyes hair
@fantastic909411 күн бұрын
Kamala lost 7 swing states
@DavianSinner11 күн бұрын
She hasn't lost squat. The election is 3-1/2 weeks away.
@serenadevon11 күн бұрын
@@DavianSinnerthis channel is wrong😂😂😂😂
@mariepowell361811 күн бұрын
You are a liar like trump
@sirfrancis961911 күн бұрын
@@DavianSinner haha ..... even left pollsters have her even......she needs to be way ahead to have a chance.....keep coping dude
@donnieconner727810 күн бұрын
WHAT?
@michelleb563710 күн бұрын
He makes his predictions based on historical”keys” not the temperature of the race.
@leonmoore942710 күн бұрын
America isn’t as much of an in the moment country as you think. For example people who hate Trump aren’t going to look to the moment and say you know what lemme vote for him. In reverse people who loved him aren’t going to turn on him in the moment
@mohyor743914 күн бұрын
Litchman will be humiliated this year.
@muliyechuula909814 күн бұрын
No he won't......
@IsothermeMusic13 күн бұрын
No. He’s dead-on right.
@GentlemanJack70513 күн бұрын
Either you're wrong, and we'll see a bit more of him over the coming months and future cycles, or you're right and we'll never see him again, lol
@eirikjontvedt77313 күн бұрын
Yeah right, Boris.
@M.H.I.A.F.T.13 күн бұрын
@mohyor7439 Are you going to provide some reasoning or should we just take your word over his?
@DokPBriMonКүн бұрын
October surprise is actually the polls rising favoring Trump that's the surprise
@anthonywilson418114 күн бұрын
If lichtman is wrong his credibility is gone
@Neville-o4z14 күн бұрын
Bye bye Blackbird to bad hair Lichtman...
@mrcardenas40014 күн бұрын
You're right. That's it for him.
@bchristian8514 күн бұрын
If he's right, I'd bet on him next cycle. I agree with his theory, I just don't think it accounts for the cult of personality that Donald Trump has. If Litchman is still right THIS year, I think his formula is close to failproof.
@rosiejimenez395314 күн бұрын
He's not credible now!
@bchristian8514 күн бұрын
@@rosiejimenez3953 If he would have predicted Trump, everyone would be singing his praises. Let's see how the election turns out. This particular election is unique in American history. If he gets this one right, I think he's credible.
@giovanniloubetancourt382910 күн бұрын
Professor Allan lives on another planet this time he was wrong we live in a case of all the keys are failing
@leonmoore942710 күн бұрын
That’s your opinion but facts don’t care about feelings
@hoppiemulder700514 күн бұрын
Prof. you are quite right...a lot of Dems can still change there minds and vote Trump
@afflictedreader670014 күн бұрын
already coping 😂
@mrjuvy4914 күн бұрын
NOPE, no sex offender or felon for me.
@GerMUFC199614 күн бұрын
Unlikely
@mrjuvy4913 күн бұрын
Trump is an adjudicate sex offender and felon, you dispute that?
@M.H.I.A.F.T.13 күн бұрын
@hoppiemulder7005 You can't differentiate between their and there. Small wonder the orange fascist says he loves the uneducated 😄
@messrsandersonco59858 күн бұрын
Lichtman doesn't understand how polling is done, nor how random sampling reduces sampling error. I studied statistics and sampling/sampling error at university and wrote essays on these subjects. In a nutshell, yes, there CAN be non-response error in surveys but it's ONLY an issue IF the non-responders are DIFFERENT from the general population. Therefore, if non-responders are the representative of voters as a whole, they will have no impact on the survey results! Sampling error comes from poor sampling and non-randomness. Using very large random or stratified random samples overcomes most problems, and amples can also be weighted!
@MarkSmithhhh14 күн бұрын
I still refuse to believe that allen lichtmans hair is real
@natashatomlinson454814 күн бұрын
Hair dye is a wonderful thing
@Wilett61414 күн бұрын
then dont That has ZERO to do with the video ....
@common1213 күн бұрын
He picked the “little Dutch boy” style😂
@prometheusrex112 күн бұрын
It's plainly a whole-head hair transplant. It looks silly.
@curthennig944812 күн бұрын
Trump believes it because he sold it to him.
@froh1froh77714 күн бұрын
Allan is too proud to admit when he is wrong.
@chamontlife785814 күн бұрын
When was he wrong?
@ericwolfley992914 күн бұрын
@chamontlife7858 2000 then said it was a popular vote prediction he never made a prediction prior to that election only retroactively applied his model.
@froh1froh77714 күн бұрын
@@chamontlife7858 not was, is
@johng409314 күн бұрын
Whenever he makes a mistake, he says that one doesn't count because of x, y, and z. Basically a charlatan.
@vincesmith249914 күн бұрын
@@ericwolfley9929No. Gore won Florida. Next?
@jessicasun776211 күн бұрын
Totally, all my friends supports Trump kept asking everyone to support Trump also talk very loudly! 😅😅😅😅😅
@dianavaldez337112 күн бұрын
Donald Trump is not unhinged, he’s honest. He doesn’t sugarcoat. He doesn’t BS around.
@nolagirl914411 күн бұрын
HONEST? The lifelong PATHOLOGICAL LIAR? Delusional much or did you just believe him when he told you not to believe your lying eyes/ears? So those Republican governors of states hit by Helene are not telling the truth about getting plenty of Federal help while lying donnie says they aren't? Do you ever fact check him?
@richspizzaparty8 күн бұрын
These guys glazing themselves is hilarious. No way this race is close, get out and vote!
@markross334613 күн бұрын
I'd say that Lichtman obviously has a system that has worked, but here's the difference this time. He's never had to deal with his system choosing a candidate as bad as Kamala Harris.
@ianrobinson420013 күн бұрын
Donald Trump 2016, Donald Trump 2020, Donald Trump 2024, Hillary Clinton 2016
@rowlandmak784613 күн бұрын
No candidate has been anywhere close to as bad as Trump, including Harris. For the most part, a bumbling, incoherent, fascist idiot.
@underwaterlevelz194713 күн бұрын
Half-right, the biggest difference is that this time the nominee was switched out after the primaries with only a few months left to campaign...a huge risk. Personally, I think Lichtman should have refused to make a pick based on this anomaly. If Lichtman gets this one wrong, he is going to look like a fooI.
@markross334612 күн бұрын
@@rowlandmak7846 if he was really all those things you say he is, and that's not just the media telling you that and making him look that way, how could he so successful in business? He was President for 4 years. Our economy just before Covid was breaking record growth. His track record is proven. And yet somehow he's a stupid bacon. LOL Harris has accomplished literally nothing, and can't even hold a press conference or a legitimate interview. Hat is her track record? She has a track record of do nothing.
@markross334612 күн бұрын
@@underwaterlevelz1947 the only way he would look like a fool is if Trump win in a landslide. We will see, but you make a good point. She was never actually chosen by voters. That is an anomaly. I truly believe she was meant to lose. The Obamas don't want to wait another 8 years to run Michelle. They could not step in to this cycle and they are planning for 2028. I mean you know Obama told her to choose Walz. Instead for the PA governor, they go with some left wing extreme from Minnesota? Hahaha
@debbieallen20603 күн бұрын
HARRIS/WALZ 2024 🇺🇸
@bigdogrisin722613 күн бұрын
It will make me so happy to see Lichtman proven wrong. He is so biased that he doesn't seem honest.
@darrinheaton261413 күн бұрын
he won't be wrong. The dems will win handedly.
@nolagirl914411 күн бұрын
Not honest? If you're a trump supporter you should be completely and utterly ok with someone lying to you all the time.
@user-zq9zp9sj8s14 күн бұрын
Franks hair looks wonderful today.
@Sherry-f9y13 күн бұрын
Everyday. Money well spent.
@prometheusrex112 күн бұрын
It's so silly. Sheesh.
@cds184814 күн бұрын
Dueling Toupees!
@markusmurdock947314 күн бұрын
😂😂😂 now that's hilarious
@HolisticTraumaTherapy14 күн бұрын
You must be referring to Trump and his minion
@johng409314 күн бұрын
Lickman's isn't even close to looking real. 😂
@vistaprime14 күн бұрын
Lichtman's hair is real. Luntz wears a piece. one has hair like a twink; the other dates twinks
@HipsterDoofus10013 күн бұрын
@@HolisticTraumaTherapykeep posting the same thing twink
@Flower-i3r3 күн бұрын
Whats the state margin
@wellingtonceron111313 күн бұрын
Vote 🗳️ blue …
@vavictus11 күн бұрын
If Lichtman is wrong, it’ll hammer him hard. If he’s right, he’ll be insufferable 🤣
@JoeBuck20714 күн бұрын
Who has the best rug ? 😂
@hw509114 күн бұрын
Litchman has the nerve to say it's all his hair. IDK what Luntz says, but even if it is real, it's the color shoe polish.
@christopherlauderdale14 күн бұрын
Hey, if the technology is there, take advantage.😂😂😂
@sevavityoikaa529613 күн бұрын
YOUR FATHER
@janicelloyd32159 күн бұрын
I agree about polling. Very few get counted. Many women will vote in a landslide for their rights.
@ghiaferrari75858 күн бұрын
What rights?
@peterforan613914 күн бұрын
Elon getting on stage with Trump in Butter PA is the October surprise that will change this race .
@TheNinjaJesusRises14 күн бұрын
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahah!
@gotherripper14 күн бұрын
Elon does not control a single vote. he is not a superstar. he is minus and not addition
@hwnsrfaboy4314 күн бұрын
Yes. It will make trump lose even more
@FactbasedReality042114 күн бұрын
Creepy as shit. Elon is a weirdo. Trump Is senile
@Wilett61414 күн бұрын
yup He just aided trumps loss .... musk is an idiot as well ...
@sultanzuras560Күн бұрын
Every time you think the same you will turn out to be wrong .
@commonsense648912 күн бұрын
Professor will fail this time.
@annmarieknapp11 күн бұрын
I hope not. Trump will end us.
@bella5000811 күн бұрын
@@annmarieknapp you weren't ended in 2016. Please don't be a mindless sheep all your life. Sheesh.
@catwoman450911 күн бұрын
He’s absolutely wrong this time!
@milanrandjelovic987711 күн бұрын
He said even after the June Trump - Biden debate that Biden will win the election 😂