Frank Luntz and Allan Lichtman talk swing-state polls and predictions

[@eduardoquirino8131]

It's true during surveys, a lot of people would hide their real answer, but when it's voting day, they will vote for whom they have always intended.

[@sherrymiller2302]

I don't believe that is happening as much in this particular election. And one of the reasons why is that people don't take kindly to being told they are NOT seeing what they ARE seeing...

[@HankSemoreButz]

True. Trump 2024 🇺🇸

[@lms2932]

​@@HankSemoreButzwrong

[@HankSemoreButz]

@@lms2932 you’ll see I’m right 😉

[@lms2932]

@@HankSemoreButz 🙄

[@yamilethvsanchez6250]

Is completely unfair this situation, the electoral map is red ❤❤ DT probably win the popular votes 🗳️ but it is irrational for United States 🇺🇸 and the citizens continue under Kamala I’m very sad 😔, please 🙏🏻 continue voting for DT,

[@beteissier]

The pollsters have a vested interest in the polls describing a very close race. the more incertain the race the more parties and others ask for polls.

[@bernardguzman1938]

and the media has an incentive on reporting a "close race" via polls since (1) many polls are conducted by media outlets and (2) a blow out ahead of the actual election is not news worthy.

[@johnwendland7908]

This

[@josephthomasjr.6551]

That's one of the things that I like about Allan: he sticks to his guns. Once the prediction has been made, he does NOT deviate from it. CONSTANCY my friends! It's a word seldom employed; but an attribute always appreciated.

[@Rashnak66]

This is false....he said Biden was a lock to win.

[@Sherry-f9y]

The truth is she will win IF all her supporters show up to vote. Remember, there are more Democratic leaning voters than Trump supporters. Also, don't discount all of the Republicans who don't want Trump back in the White house.

[@johnfox901]

His keys make sense BUT he has made his final predictions at wildly different times ranging from 18 months before an election to 2 months.

[@visitsoutherncalifornia930]

Allan own TDS has him violating his 13 keys. By his own theory Harris lost the momentous was installed. His keys don’t take into account a situation where a candidate is installed and replaced. His keys don’t take into account assignation attempts which wildly creates variance. Cumo (who is an idiot) does mention 2000 or 2004 where Allan prediction was wrong and Bush won. He predicted Gore and then blamed the ballots as the issue which was a variance to his 13 keys. Right now he has major variance with an installed candidate and assignation attempts. His theory is out the window here

[@hgservices5572]

Yeah , but it’s foolish . He was wrong I think in 2000. Looking at his own keys , Trump should win, seems he interprets his own keys in an odd manner because just looking at them Trump should win . I think this time he is fueled more by hope than logic

[@Landslide-m4f]

Get ready for the LANDSLIDE!!!

[@LynnLee-fs3dp]

🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸💙💙

[@peterhildebrandt2827]

Hard to call election fraud on a tsunami :)

[@sirfrancis9619]

@@LynnLee-fs3dp 32 days...um 32 days.....err ..um err..that's right 32 days........ good luck with that

[@persico9017]

Bye-bye donny 😉

[@elizabethcsicsery-ronay1633]

For Trump

[@DokPBriMon]

bottomline now is that among the two candidates Trump articulates and addresses the issues of the working class and families, ❤

[@bcb7443]

“They’re eating the dawgs!” 😅

[@clarkthesharkshow9944]

Haha.. Lol ... Trump is going to Win easy ...the media knows it ...and he was never down ... the fake media made it all up....

[@XJSSBill]

a wonderful meaningless post

[@BillOptional]

changed everything....the most utterly weird thing ever said in ANY presidential debate, and I remember Kennedy/Nixon...

[@davejohnson9474]

​@@BillOptionalwhat did it change? No one even cares anymore... it was funny for a few days, but now?

[@donaldkinder6716]

😆 time for the OLD man TRUMP too go senile old BASTARD in 2 yrs trump will not know were he's at the way he talks

[@unclebrucelive]

"We're Not Just Political Pundits, We're Hair Club Clients Too!"

[@startwithgina5732]

You’re a clown🤡🙄🤮

[@TesterBoy]

😂😂😂

[@theessentials450]

the real WHIG PARTY!

[@ojimamaha1358]

Trump will break his prediction streak this time

[@spencerdobkin9479]

He was wrong in 2000. He said Gore would win.

[@mohamedcamara8785]

@@spencerdobkin9479 Al Gore did win . We all know what happened

[@ranelgallardo7031]

@@spencerdobkin9479Yeah but that was super close and there’s an asterisk to that election

[@derekgoncz7970]

I respect Lichtman’s work, but our elections are predictable enough that people can choose the winner based on momentum at various points. In fact most have been easy to predict.

[@GerMUFC1996]

Did you pick 2016? The polls and momentum were all for Clinton right up to Election Day.

[@HarrySatchelWhatsThatSmell]

But Lichtman has gotten the tough one's right and made the pollsters and the pundits look silly more than once.

[@factman-w8m]

Polls are nonsense because they poll from "LIKELY VOTERS" meaning voters who voted in 2020, 2016,etc. Well, The october surprise, Chris, is the WAVE of NEW voters, Woman, Young, america saving new voters who want trump gone, etc. That's why on election day, there will be a tsunami wave of Harris votes and trump will lose by a landslide ON ELECTION DAY

[@marvinsykes]

NO ONE PICKED TRUMP IN 2016 but him. I'm surprised he was accurate.

[@magnusalexander2965]

@@marvinsykes Michael Moore did. He's predicting Harris this year too, so hopefully my worries are unfounded. But after 2016 I will never again overestimate Americans

[@richardkluesek4301]

Bein' "Brat" while joyful and vibed is not Presidential. Dodging a bullet more than once ( 3 times ?) and withstanding intensive lawfare, media hostility, and being the underdog for the last 9 years is astonishing.

[@mmusya793]

Wow professor Lichtman is not a joker 😂😂😂. Doesn't waver a bit!

[@darthlestrange]

Allan Litchman said that Biden was totally fine and that he should stay in the race. When cuomo pushed back by saying he’s suffering from mental decline he said “you don’t know that, that is not true” he’s the only person in America that thinks that.

[@MH-ro1lg]

Harris and tens of millions of other partisans also had their heads in the sand when it came to his dementia

[@bettyannewilkinson8686]

Biden was doing fine. With age he slow down a lot. Trump should be removed by the GOP. Its like watching elder abuse. In Detroit all he did was fart. You could hear it. 😂😂

[@vincesmith2499]

We have no idea whether Chump would have actually beaten Biden.

[@Brakdayton]

We cannot know whether Lichtman was correct or not. We do know that he has not been wrong before.

[@darthlestrange]

This guy it’s an idiot and totally bias if you have a couple of minutes watch his prediction with Cuomo from 3 months ago. He’s the only one on America that think Biden is “quick on his feet” this idiot posted some “breaking news” that he received news from the Biden campaign that Biden was staying in the race and a couple of hours later Biden dropped out lol

[@chambersstevens3135]

It is amazing how much Frank has changed. It is like he has had an epiphany! Much nicer guy. I am happy for him.

[@nathannewman799]

tough times will do that to a man

[@chesterhaduca7029]

If Lichtman is right, why Kamala’s campaign is worried?

[@stanmoroncini8825]

They’d be foolish not too. trump campaign is nervous too. It’s just human nature.

[@muliyechuula9098]

@@stanmoroncini8825 exactly!!!

[@muliyechuula9098]

Trump campaign is also nervous don't be cheated.......and it's normal and human to be worried and nervous

[@factman-w8m]

Polls are nonsense because they poll from "LIKELY VOTERS" meaning voters who voted in 2020, 2016,etc. Well, The october surprise, Chris, is the WAVE of NEW voters, Woman, Young, america saving new voters who want trump gone, etc. That's why on election day, there will be a tsunami wave of Harris votes and trump will lose by a landslide ON ELECTION DAY

[@johnfox901]

In 2016 he predicted Trump would win the popular vote but he barely won via the electoral college and lost the pop vote. . In 2020 he correctly predicted that Biden would win the popular vote and the electoral college and Biden won the popular vote as expected but barely won the EC.

[@chetisanhart3457]

I picked Villanova to beat Georgetown in the NCAA championship. I was laughed at when I said Buster Douglas had a chance. Can I be on tv now ?

[@factman-w8m]

I knew when tyson was knocked down twice in sparring for Douglas, he wasn't prepared mentally or physically, then when I heard he was fornicating with japanese woman before the fight. of course he would lose to a big strong good fundamental boxer in perfect shape and fighting for his dead mom. BTW, let me educate you on polling. Polls are nonsense because they poll from "LIKELY VOTERS" meaning voters who voted in 2020, 2016,etc. Well, The october surprise, is the WAVE of NEW voters, Woman, Young, america saving new voters who want trump gone, etc. That's why on election day, there will be a tsunami wave of Harris votes that weren't even factored in on the polls and trump will lose by a landslide ON ELECTION DAY

[@Sherry-f9y]

You're on KZbin. Congrats.

[@jad1079]

Two legends of elections predictions: Lichtman and Luntz.

[@janicejohnston4286]

Luntz predictions are not accurate. He stated Trump would win the last election he did not!

[@meisievannancy]

Well in my opinion Alan's keys are as he interprets them. Another person might interpret them differently so how can they be reproduceable by someone else ?

[@taylorcampbel9639]

Anyone can use his keys and come up with different prediction. it's like using the farmers almanac to tell the weather 3 months out it's pointless.

[@meisievannancy]

​@@taylorcampbel9639 Yep

[@davidcallahan2832]

@@taylorcampbel9639 Anyone can't use them to come up with different results because they do not adequately comprehend the factors that go into each of the 13 keys. You apparently do not either. There are plenty of Lichtman's detailed explanations of the keys and how they are factored here on KZbin.

[@KrunkDiddelyUmptious]

@@davidcallahan2832 yes and he has back peddled a number of times

[@davidcallahan2832]

@@KrunkDiddelyUmptious What are you talking about? In the only metric that counts, he has gone on record and predicted outcomes correctly for forty years, except in 2000 when SCOTUS did the unprecedented and picked the candidate they wanted to win. Subsequent recounts in Florida showed Gore actually won those counties in question, so Lichtman was both right and wrong.There was no back-pedalling. You are nit-picking. You are free to come up with your own system, and when you have correctly called ten out of ten we pay attention.

[@hasher10001]

Luntz should get a new wig if Trump loses..

[@vistaprime]

He uses it to attract the twinks he dates.

[@hgservices5572]

When Trump wins frank needs to get a blonde Trump piece 😂

[@digitalpalmtrees]

He can borrow one of Allan Lichtman's rugs.

[@vistaprime]

@@digitalpalmtrees That's lichtman's actual hair. Believe it or not. He does dye it but it's it's actual hair.

[@stroyer2103]

I'm starting to like Cuomo more. CNN made him to left leaning. He seems to be pretty moderate at heart

[@thewoodmoose]

He just sees Dems 💩 like many do

[@rubyjefferson3284]

Thank you Mr. Lichtman!!

[@johnfox901]

Lichtman in 2016 " The keys predict the popular vote not the state by state tally in the electoral college vote " ( The Keys to the White House October 2016). He then went on to predict Trump would win but with the major caveat that he was historically unpopular. So Lichtman was half right in 2016.

[@nebo99]

He was not half right. He predicted who would win...period. And Trump one.

[@behrensf84]

It’s a win win for Litchman. If he’s right, he sells millions of books. If he’s wrong, he sells millions of door stoppers…

[@vincesmith2499]

He's never been wrong.

[@philipm5043]

@@vincesmith2499 He predicted Trump would win the popular vote in 2016.

[@chesterhaduca7029]

@@vincesmith2499NEVER??? 😂😂😂

[@stanmoroncini8825]

@@philipm5043no he didn’t. The keys don’t predict popular vote. Stop lying.

[@reclue7617]

Wrong in 2000 😂😂

[@सुंदरनायक-ड1म]

I am going to vote for Trump Nov 5, 2024!

[@voxpopuli5663]

I am with Luntz -Trump has the definite advantage so far

[@hwnsrfaboy43]

trump is going to lose.

[@vincesmith2499]

Nope. He's finished.

[@afflictedreader6700]

Trump has the advantage? Lmao already coping

[@mrjuvy49]

no advantage , women will pull this off.

[@mrjuvy49]

LMAO, is that code word for Trump losing?

[@HarrisonHollers]

Three guys I like to hear from throughout the election cycle. All from different backgrounds and with varying perspectives. This country is not as divided as portrayed by some out there.

[@Anna-b8e1t]

Are you serious the white supremacists went to Springfield Ohio after trump said Haitians were eating pets. They were threaten with bombs attacks on their schools, hospitals shopping centers and churches.

[@mw354]

Whichever party wins, there will be mayhem regardless

[@christopherlauderdale]

Hopefully no civil war.

[@vidan3018]

why? nobody wants that apart from truly a handful MAGA. it is really one sided.

[@Muhammadfez1]

Much less of mayhem under Trump

[@wnica1]

😂

[@Wilett614]

sadly , i agree

[@PL2550Dolphins]

Early voting hard numbers are siding with Allan Lichtman, added to his point @5:36 with the outcome in 2022, 2023, and 2024.

[@Icipher4]

Early voting always sides with Democrats.

[@glostergloster6945]

@@Icipher4 Which is why convincing voters to vote early is a good tactic and good strategy. Lock in your voters as early as possible.

[@PL2550Dolphins]

@@Icipher4 Yes, but the numbers are greater than usual at this same time. Especially in VA.

[@AnthonyPanepinto-t4e]

Trump ahead in early voting and republican registration

[@PL2550Dolphins]

@AnthonyPanepinto-t4e The best thing that will come out of Kamala Harris winning the election will be once her AG ends Trump, we won't have to deal with the delusional lies and misinformation that gullible people like you run with.

[@litedawg]

Battle of the hairpieces !

[@HolisticTraumaTherapy]

You must be referring to Trump and his minion

[@litedawg]

@@HolisticTraumaTherapy do better nerd

[@VS-de7xk]

@@HolisticTraumaTherapyquiet wine aunt

[@yvonnezimmerman1570]

That's Alan's real hair..

[@tino6846]

@@yvonnezimmerman1570😂 Yeah sure 😂

[@Channel--Ai]

Looks like lichtman might be wrong this time. His keys are great its just that economy is crap for too many to give harris that key and foreign policy has been a disaster as in total fail, so that key should be off as well. In the foriegn wars key I think.

[@underwaterlevelz1947]

Lichtman should have refused to make a pick after Democrats forced Joe Biden to drop out after he had already won the nomination. It's never happened before in presidential politics, and his model does not take into account such a bizarre turn of events so late in the campaign.

[@stephencullum8255]

The economy is not crap and have been very good. Which one of his keys picked up. Biden built up NATO that Trump had weaken and tried to destroy. That with help to Ukraine stopped Russia from concurring it. That was another of the professors keys. A foreign policy victory. Do you know what gaslighting is ?

[@1362pc]

The US economy is the strongest its EVER been...stop the lies

[@vecernicek2]

Lichtman is a pseudo-scientist, no reason to take him seriously. He doesn't know the difference between correlation and causality and it's not at all clear the he's basing his predictions on what he says he is basing them on. If his method was a real scientific method, it would be independent of its 'discoverer'. I don't think we need to consult Mr. Fahrneheit/Celsius every time we look at the thermometer, do we? That's because thermometer is an actual thing, working on established principles, rather than snake oil.

[@danaterry4975]

I believe God chose Trump for this time and no key will change that and things are getting over turned May God get all the glory for this. Trump is a fighter and here we go 2016 only higher

[@Nicolas-ig1bf]

The fact Frank doesn’t make a pick is pretty much saying, I don’t want to say that Trump will win big

[@afflictedreader6700]

or it could just be he knows that polls are bullshit. I like how you project your own views onto democratic voters 😂 no democrat in their right mind will vote for the Epstein-loving Trump

[@mrjuvy49]

HUH, what?

[@stanmoroncini8825]

Lol okay bro

[@factman-w8m]

Polls are nonsense because they poll from "LIKELY VOTERS" meaning voters who voted in 2020, 2016,etc. Well, The october surprise, Chris, is the WAVE of NEW voters, Woman, Young, america saving new voters who want trump gone, etc. That's why on election day, there will be a tsunami wave of Harris votes and trump will lose by a landslide ON ELECTION DAY

[@JC-21470]

100% correct - Frank gave away his disdain for Trump long ago and missed the 2016 call for Trump to win by HUGE margins!

[@jimspaulding8255]

Please tell Mr. Lichtman that this is a different race. He is 9 of 10 but I am 16 of 16 in my life.

[@dman7668]

He hears this alot. It would be amazing if he would be wrong this time, but I doubt it

[@ShereeTinker]

Every race has been different & he has picked correctly since 1981. He chose Gore in 2000 & SCOTUS caused the only hiccup in his predictions.

[@donnieconner7278]

WHAT/

[@Thruff-g1f]

I'm 213/214.

[@persico9017]

🙄🙄🙄🙄 yeah, that's why you're so famous 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[@lizawald1571]

I DONT BELIEVE IN POLL

[@J0hnnyTheKid]

Fast forward this video aged well 😊

[@JorgeGarcia-br7dh]

TRUMP 2024 🎉

[@sarelvanderwalt7134]

he must retire with Biden

[@M_Pross]

Harris loses 7 or 8 keys. Looks like Trump will win.

[@bernardguzman1938]

Suuuurree

[@monicab28]

I agree!

[@Courageous321]

Litchtman is not all that professional. Ultra biased. So much so, it likely influences his so called system. I appreciate how Luntz tries to remain neutral.

[@serenadevon]

He loves the rats.

[@ShereeTinker]

How can he be biased. He called trump in 2016 when all others were calling a Hilary win. He has a letter from trump saying thank you for the prediction. He’s a historian.

[@zuzanazuscinova5209]

​@@ShereeTinkerI predicted Trump would win 2016, so he wasn't the only one.

[@johngreen9864]

One of his keys says Trump has no charisma. His hatred for Trump is causing him to stretch on some of them to get to a Harris win.

[@rolandconnor575]

Lichtman will have more to worry about than butterflies when this is over. I bet nobody has him on

[@coolasice7560]

he got a damn good record it is going to be a harris landslide

[@JT-yz4rj]

@@coolasice7560Right, except for the fact that it’s not. How can it be a landslide when she’s going to lose?

[@barbarafuller5098]

Every body has had him on .. he's never been wrong in 40 years

[@JT-yz4rj]

@@barbarafuller5098 He also said that Biden’s mental state was perfectly fine prior to July. Stop buying the false hope. Everyone can predict an election when you change your predictions on election night.

[@tamarapruwer634]

Ppl still need to vote nobody won

[@casablanca2745]

Disagree on dismissing an October surprise. James Comey’s findings on Hillary Clinton proved damning and probably cost her the election.

[@tomodul2619]

Hillary Clinton was going to lose anyway because of how disliked she was and then Trump used Baghazi and the missing emails. She wasn't inspiring her voters a lot though she still lost very narrowly.

[@natashatomlinson4548]

Nonsense . You people need to drop that excuse /fable

[@randomami8176]

I just don’t think those October’s surprises are surprises any more.

[@OrangutanKiller-pq5rm]

and he may have murdered over 1 million Americans indirectly as a result!

[@leechap3]

Could be, yet by that metric Trump has one October surprise after another for the last how many years and nobody seems to change their mind. For some reason Trump is graded on a different scale than everybody else.

[@RelaxedPuppy]

October surprise: Israel launches a major attack on Iran, possibly their nuclear power plants

[@staroftheshow0]

This is the same guy who predicted Al Gore was going to be the president. 😂

[@michaelcorazzini6869]

Yea, he was WAY off on that one. Gore won the popular vote by close to 600k and he lost by only 530 votes in Florida for the Presidency. Yea, he was way off on that one! 😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆

[@RyanCMcD]

He's 9 from 10 in the last 10 elections. Pretty good record if you ask me.

[@zipscrews]

​@@RyanCMcDthat means nothing...I picked the last 7 super bowl winners...so what...

[@RyanCMcD]

@@zipscrews Well shit, every pollster in the world needs to retire then since some rando super bowl genius says 'so what'

[@vincesmith2499]

Gore did win. That's why SCOTUS literally stole the election.

[@judywelch5387]

Chris leave the room so these 2 can get it on.

[@akent6393]

While I was inclined to follow what Lichtman had to say…it’s clear to me he has a bias against Trump. As Trump is ahead in the swing states and people as well as the media are trashing Harris right now.

[@hwnsrfaboy43]

That’s bs. Trump is not leading in the swing states. Regardless of what Lichan says. Right now Harris is leading but very slightly. Harris is going to win.

[@jessecortez9202]

He predicted that Trump was going to win 2016. So, there is no bias against Trump for this year or 2020.

[@tomodul2619]

@@akent6393 Do you remember that Hillary Clinton was a head in 2016 in almost all the polls?

[@leechap3]

Try not to confuse your wishful thinking with reality. Trump drew to an inside straight in 2016 and has done nothing but lose ever since. PA for example has been solid Blue since 1992 and was again in 2020, Add hundreds of thousands of new GenZ voters skewing heavily Dem and women pissed off about the Dobbs decision, it is highly unlikely he can win there. Harris also has more money and a vastly better ground organization.

[@duitk]

​@@tomodul2619 Shhhh republicans only trust the polls if it shows them winning.

[@DokPBriMon]

the unprecedented turn out of early election today is not read in so called 13 keys, today's sentiment is completely different,

[@konasmom2457]

They keep trying to hurt Trump, third time yesterday, what do you know Lichtman??

[@benjierodriguez6518]

Who keeps trying to hurt Trump? Please, be specific, don't generalize, and substantiate with facts.

[@mariepowell3618]

@@benjierodriguez6518the truth hurts don’t it

[@serenadevon]

​@@benjierodriguez6518do your research...all over the Internet.

[@konasmom2457]

@@benjierodriguez6518 well let’s see first guy, Thomas crooks, 2nd guy ryan routh, yesterday was Vern Miller, and the other guy I have to look up, hold on

[@konasmom2457]

@@benjierodriguez6518 Thomas crooks shot President Trump in Butler Pennsylvania and was K I l led by secret service, Ryan Routh was hiding in the bushes while President Trump was trying to golf, secret service saw him. S h o t at him then he ran the police chased him down during a pursuit, I don’t know too much about yesterdays guy, it was in Coachella Ca, his vehicle was full of g u n s, this will probably get deleted, where have you been? You must listen to main stream media.

[@LKKMD]

Kamala can win easily if she stops responding with the same phrase all the time .She has to go off script and bring her own point.Also explain like Obama why this or that. People think she plays too safe and that hurt

[@pedroalamo5896]

The border is a crisis ❤❤❤❤

[@JesseWhite-ri6yn]

Nobody is going to lie and say they are voting for Trump

[@Bass-Boomer]

Trump has more support than the polls show because some of Trump's MAGA Christian hypocrite cult hates MSM and they will lie to MSM and say they're NOT voting for Trump.

[@JuanEspinal-o3b]

Ese no sabes nada liman ese es un anti tromp voy a tromp

[@ihorperec4990]

jajajajaja No digas tonterias por favor

[@savannahshines3633]

The government chooses who they want to win - t to hats a fact

[@reelrocknrolla4251]

The problem with Licthman's prediction, its that he misapplied his keys to favor Harris. For example there IS a third party candidate (RFK) because he was kept on the ballot in 3 swing states.

[@ZombieSandwiches]

Being on the ballot doesn't mean he's still running. He dropped out of the race already and lost percentage. By that logic of "being on the ballot," that would mean every presidential race had a 3rd party candidate.

[@LuisEstevez-o3g]

And Jill Stein and Cornell West. Let's take MI for instance, close to 100 000 Muslim voters rejected Joe Biden in the primary due to the war in Gaza. Months forward the war is not only not done but getting worse and threatening to spread further in the region. Does Kamala now get those votes? I doubt it, therefore Trump should win MI logically. Yet Allan believes that key goes to Kamala to your point. Allan doesn't take the Gaza war as a major international conflict. Like you said, nothing wrong with the keys, just his bias is blinding him which is sad.

[@duckid73]

Harris has 9 keys and Trump has 4 keys. Even if your assertion was correct, which isn't going to factor into anything, Trump would still lose 8 to 5.

[@ImEricBro]

You have misunderstood what the third party candidate key is about (key 4). It doesn't have anything to do with whether or not there IS a third party candidate, it is whether or not they are in a position to have an impact on the outcome of the race. There are always third party candidates in every election and many of them are on state ballots. The key requires that a third party candidate consistently poll at 10% or higher because it would then mean that they'd pull in about 5% of the national vote which is enough to sway the results of the election. At this point, RFK Jr. is polling at less than 2% nationally which means his impact on the outcome is virtually zero.

[@SilverSergeant]

@@duckid73 That just isn't true if applied truthfully.

[@pameladelisser4859]

0:46 Yes Professor. I am almost 72 yrs. Old. I am not mocking. .A. couple of experts have noted that some years ago, when you were more alert, you. would have interpreted your model to be a Trump. victory. You still have time to make a correction. I am with you all the way.

[@GalinaNisnevich-v6s]

Yes, I agree entirely!!!

[@bethanyelaine9949]

Trump is "unhinged?" Stop the buzz words. He's extremely rational and even. He just speaks his mind and people can't handle the truth.

[@lindawise4652]

He is not making any sense these days. Worse than ever.

[@criminalnchief5989]

Yeah he spoke his mind when he lied about covid causing the deaths of 3000 Americans every day

[@sirfrancis9619]

@@criminalnchief5989 and elmer Fudd lied about his military service...his trip to China, his IVF use..........his hunting expertise...lol. Harris lied about everything ....fracking, the border, trans surgery for inmates, inflation, Afghanistan debacle, Biden's mental state......she has got a single vote to be where she is.

[@xxvilnchiixxlol6471]

Ha ha ha ha ha

[@davidcallahan2832]

He hasn't got much of a mind left to speak.

[@DokPBriMon]

there is no absolute fundamentals in elections,

[@michaelrussell2593]

1:40 Trump never bragged about assaulting women

[@nudnick]

You’re deaf, dumb, and blind. Access Hollywood tape. Ever hear it?

[@trishallenson4691]

Have you listened to the tape? Or is that behavior you find appropriate in your relationships?

[@user-zp8ol5ym8y]

Ya he did. And it’s disgusting

[@aceofbassmoore7093]

Liar

[@michaelrussell2593]

@@aceofbassmoore7093 I believe he said when you are a billionaire, they let you. Even while conducting lockerroom talk he mention consent.

[@sunheri189]

Hari is was up 3 points a month ago in Michigan. Now she is barely up by less than a point. Gaza issue is the death of her. We can’t win without Michigan. Very distressing. Trump made up 3 points and moment is with him. 😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢

[@xbulsara]

Frank Luntz is a very sophisticated tool.

[@WatrfrontTampa]

Lichtman understands the logic behind the polls having nothing to do with the actual day of voting. There are too many variables in polling - bacause we are HUMANS - and humans are all different and unpredictable by looking at a tiny percentage of voters. Polls are a MEDIA strategy to keep people tuned into and watching news channels. By stating that the polls are 50/50 all time, keeps the security of the candidates safer, and also allows for suspense around the world!

[@GG2002_NJ]

I like Lichtman’s model, I just don’t agree with his answers to his model’s questions. And I don’t think voters do either. Lichtman’s model was predicating a Biden win in 24 too.

[@dman7668]

Who knows. With Biden out we will never know.

[@ShereeTinker]

Because he’s the incumbent. His keys are based on the White House & the current president. The Democrats lost a key when Biden pulled out. Kamala is still part of the incumbency being VP so all other keys that were for the White House stayed blue. Not difficult to understand really.

[@onephatdude]

Yeah I think he's wrong. This economy sucks. Inflation is killing people and the dems got us

[@M_Pross]

@@dman7668 There was no way Biden was going to win with the poll numbers he was getting.

[@LynnLee-fs3dp]

@@onephatdudelies! 🙄Inflation is low, crime is low, stock market is booming!

[@rezong1898]

The whole world is watching how Aericans are going to wisely vote for the right candidate, when elected, will be the most powerful man/woman in the world.

[@stevenapodaca6952]

Media must submit statistical process regarding polls otherwise the polls mean nothing!!!

[@tanya41277]

Lichtman couldnt see through his TDS to make a goid call if he needed to.

[@PianoUniverse]

He picked trump in 2016

[@Timmyjl25]

Yall literally wake up and say dumb shii.

[@patricktufly9662]

His record literally proves you wrong. Literally hpe stupid are you people

[@sarahdixon1943]

He said, "Trump has incredible STAIN power," right??? 😆 🤣 😂

[@scotttimothy64]

Lichtman's system relies on too much subjectivity. Charisma? Come on. So does 12 cancel out 13 or visa versa? 10 cancel out 11?

[@rafaelsantana2834]

Grea for litchman.

[@ChannelH.Dunbar-lw7qg]

Thanks Professor Alan L

[@dennisharrell2236]

I would say that the 2016 October surprise was the FBI announcing reopening the Hillary emails investigation.

[@JayKno420]

Frank already called this race for Harris post debate, remember!

[@persico9017]

Yup, and Lichtman predicted it weeks before that 😉

[@meinkraft2284]

Lichtman's downfall is the 2 economy keys which revolves around perception, it's not the stock market, it's the affordability of basic goods.

[@rosskarsk51823]

Isn’t it sad that people are voting for Kamala just because they hate Trump?

[@benjierodriguez6518]

@@rosskarsk51823 No one hates him, we just know that he's the most disgraceful, incompetent, fraudulent, and dangerous former president to ever hold office. That's not hate, we're just worried about how much more damage he could do to ourcountry if he is reelected.

[@JESTERSCOOTER]

Isn't it sad that anyone would want more of covid 45 who handed Biden a destroyed economy after Obama gave trump a great economy

[@gospeljoy5713]

More than hate. He is incompetent. It is sad that fantasyland candidate is trying to be in charge.

[@mst3kpimp]

is it sad to eat pizza hut if the alternative is red baron?

[@JESTERSCOOTER]

@@mst3kpimp it's sad trump destroyed Obama's economy and Biden needed to fix it

[@davidsonowski414]

ECONOMY ECONOMY ECONOMY period

[@vincesmith2499]

There's no recession.

[@duitk]

Nope, Obama won even though Romney was trusted more on the economy. People don't vote with logic they vote with their feelings.

[@shawncrawford3146]

Trump inherited a growing economy and crashed it on his way out the door. The USA has the strongest economy in the world. And Trump's economic plan of across the board tariffs has the backing of not one serious economist anywhere.

[@GerMUFC1996]

The economy is doing great. Inflation is down (I accept prices are still too high), interest rates are falling and the stock market is currently at all time highs.

[@factman-w8m]

Trump gave to biden the WORST economy ever, Worst unemployment in HISTORY. Yeah, you want to talk about that one? HArris by a landslide ON ELECTION DAY. Polls are nonsense because they poll from "LIKELY VOTERS" meaning voters who voted in 2020, 2016,etc. Well, The october surprise, Chris, is the WAVE of NEW voters, Woman, Young, america saving new voters who want trump gone, etc. That's why on election day, there will be a tsunami wave of Harris votes and trump will lose by a landslide ON ELECTION DAY

[@matthewstrauts5427]

I like the wig on the guy on the left and the way Luntz dyes hair

[@fantastic9094]

Kamala lost 7 swing states

[@DavianSinner]

She hasn't lost squat. The election is 3-1/2 weeks away.

[@serenadevon]

​@@DavianSinnerthis channel is wrong😂😂😂😂

[@mariepowell3618]

You are a liar like trump

[@sirfrancis9619]

@@DavianSinner haha ..... even left pollsters have her even......she needs to be way ahead to have a chance.....keep coping dude

[@donnieconner7278]

WHAT?

[@michelleb5637]

He makes his predictions based on historical”keys” not the temperature of the race.

[@leonmoore9427]

America isn’t as much of an in the moment country as you think. For example people who hate Trump aren’t going to look to the moment and say you know what lemme vote for him. In reverse people who loved him aren’t going to turn on him in the moment

[@mohyor7439]

Litchman will be humiliated this year.

[@muliyechuula9098]

No he won't......

[@IsothermeMusic]

No. He’s dead-on right.

[@GentlemanJack705]

Either you're wrong, and we'll see a bit more of him over the coming months and future cycles, or you're right and we'll never see him again, lol

[@eirikjontvedt773]

Yeah right, Boris.

[@M.H.I.A.F.T.]

@mohyor7439 Are you going to provide some reasoning or should we just take your word over his?

[@DokPBriMon]

October surprise is actually the polls rising favoring Trump that's the surprise

[@anthonywilson4181]

If lichtman is wrong his credibility is gone

[@Neville-o4z]

Bye bye Blackbird to bad hair Lichtman...

[@mrcardenas400]

You're right. That's it for him.

[@bchristian85]

If he's right, I'd bet on him next cycle. I agree with his theory, I just don't think it accounts for the cult of personality that Donald Trump has. If Litchman is still right THIS year, I think his formula is close to failproof.

[@rosiejimenez3953]

He's not credible now!

[@bchristian85]

@@rosiejimenez3953 If he would have predicted Trump, everyone would be singing his praises. Let's see how the election turns out. This particular election is unique in American history. If he gets this one right, I think he's credible.

[@giovanniloubetancourt3829]

Professor Allan lives on another planet this time he was wrong we live in a case of all the keys are failing

[@leonmoore9427]

That’s your opinion but facts don’t care about feelings

[@hoppiemulder7005]

Prof. you are quite right...a lot of Dems can still change there minds and vote Trump

[@afflictedreader6700]

already coping 😂

[@mrjuvy49]

NOPE, no sex offender or felon for me.

[@GerMUFC1996]

Unlikely

[@mrjuvy49]

Trump is an adjudicate sex offender and felon, you dispute that?

[@M.H.I.A.F.T.]

@hoppiemulder7005 You can't differentiate between their and there. Small wonder the orange fascist says he loves the uneducated 😄

[@messrsandersonco5985]

Lichtman doesn't understand how polling is done, nor how random sampling reduces sampling error. I studied statistics and sampling/sampling error at university and wrote essays on these subjects. In a nutshell, yes, there CAN be non-response error in surveys but it's ONLY an issue IF the non-responders are DIFFERENT from the general population. Therefore, if non-responders are the representative of voters as a whole, they will have no impact on the survey results! Sampling error comes from poor sampling and non-randomness. Using very large random or stratified random samples overcomes most problems, and amples can also be weighted!

[@MarkSmithhhh]

I still refuse to believe that allen lichtmans hair is real

[@natashatomlinson4548]

Hair dye is a wonderful thing

[@Wilett614]

then dont That has ZERO to do with the video ....

[@common12]

He picked the “little Dutch boy” style😂

[@prometheusrex1]

It's plainly a whole-head hair transplant. It looks silly.

[@curthennig9448]

Trump believes it because he sold it to him.

[@froh1froh777]

Allan is too proud to admit when he is wrong.

[@chamontlife7858]

When was he wrong?

[@ericwolfley9929]

​@chamontlife7858 2000 then said it was a popular vote prediction he never made a prediction prior to that election only retroactively applied his model.

[@froh1froh777]

@@chamontlife7858 not was, is

[@johng4093]

Whenever he makes a mistake, he says that one doesn't count because of x, y, and z. Basically a charlatan.

[@vincesmith2499]

​@@ericwolfley9929No. Gore won Florida. Next?

[@jessicasun7762]

Totally, all my friends supports Trump kept asking everyone to support Trump also talk very loudly! 😅😅😅😅😅

[@dianavaldez3371]

Donald Trump is not unhinged, he’s honest. He doesn’t sugarcoat. He doesn’t BS around.

[@nolagirl9144]

HONEST? The lifelong PATHOLOGICAL LIAR? Delusional much or did you just believe him when he told you not to believe your lying eyes/ears? So those Republican governors of states hit by Helene are not telling the truth about getting plenty of Federal help while lying donnie says they aren't? Do you ever fact check him?

[@richspizzaparty]

These guys glazing themselves is hilarious. No way this race is close, get out and vote!

[@markross3346]

I'd say that Lichtman obviously has a system that has worked, but here's the difference this time. He's never had to deal with his system choosing a candidate as bad as Kamala Harris.

[@ianrobinson4200]

Donald Trump 2016, Donald Trump 2020, Donald Trump 2024, Hillary Clinton 2016

[@rowlandmak7846]

No candidate has been anywhere close to as bad as Trump, including Harris. For the most part, a bumbling, incoherent, fascist idiot.

[@underwaterlevelz1947]

Half-right, the biggest difference is that this time the nominee was switched out after the primaries with only a few months left to campaign...a huge risk. Personally, I think Lichtman should have refused to make a pick based on this anomaly. If Lichtman gets this one wrong, he is going to look like a fooI.

[@markross3346]

@@rowlandmak7846 if he was really all those things you say he is, and that's not just the media telling you that and making him look that way, how could he so successful in business? He was President for 4 years. Our economy just before Covid was breaking record growth. His track record is proven. And yet somehow he's a stupid bacon. LOL Harris has accomplished literally nothing, and can't even hold a press conference or a legitimate interview. Hat is her track record? She has a track record of do nothing.

[@markross3346]

@@underwaterlevelz1947 the only way he would look like a fool is if Trump win in a landslide. We will see, but you make a good point. She was never actually chosen by voters. That is an anomaly. I truly believe she was meant to lose. The Obamas don't want to wait another 8 years to run Michelle. They could not step in to this cycle and they are planning for 2028. I mean you know Obama told her to choose Walz. Instead for the PA governor, they go with some left wing extreme from Minnesota? Hahaha

[@debbieallen2060]

HARRIS/WALZ 2024 🇺🇸

[@bigdogrisin7226]

It will make me so happy to see Lichtman proven wrong. He is so biased that he doesn't seem honest.

[@darrinheaton2614]

he won't be wrong. The dems will win handedly.

[@nolagirl9144]

Not honest? If you're a trump supporter you should be completely and utterly ok with someone lying to you all the time.

[@user-zq9zp9sj8s]

Franks hair looks wonderful today.

[@Sherry-f9y]

Everyday. Money well spent.

[@prometheusrex1]

It's so silly. Sheesh.

[@cds1848]

Dueling Toupees!

[@markusmurdock9473]

😂😂😂 now that's hilarious

[@HolisticTraumaTherapy]

You must be referring to Trump and his minion

[@johng4093]

Lickman's isn't even close to looking real. 😂

[@vistaprime]

Lichtman's hair is real. Luntz wears a piece. one has hair like a twink; the other dates twinks

[@HipsterDoofus100]

@@HolisticTraumaTherapykeep posting the same thing twink

[@Flower-i3r]

Whats the state margin

[@wellingtonceron1113]

Vote 🗳️ blue …

[@vavictus]

If Lichtman is wrong, it’ll hammer him hard. If he’s right, he’ll be insufferable 🤣

[@JoeBuck207]

Who has the best rug ? 😂

[@hw5091]

Litchman has the nerve to say it's all his hair. IDK what Luntz says, but even if it is real, it's the color shoe polish.

[@christopherlauderdale]

Hey, if the technology is there, take advantage.😂😂😂

[@sevavityoikaa5296]

YOUR FATHER

[@janicelloyd3215]

I agree about polling. Very few get counted. Many women will vote in a landslide for their rights.

[@ghiaferrari7585]

What rights?

[@peterforan6139]

Elon getting on stage with Trump in Butter PA is the October surprise that will change this race .

[@TheNinjaJesusRises]

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahah!

[@gotherripper]

Elon does not control a single vote. he is not a superstar. he is minus and not addition

[@hwnsrfaboy43]

Yes. It will make trump lose even more

[@FactbasedReality0421]

Creepy as shit. Elon is a weirdo. Trump Is senile

[@Wilett614]

yup He just aided trumps loss .... musk is an idiot as well ...

[@sultanzuras560]

Every time you think the same you will turn out to be wrong .

[@commonsense6489]

Professor will fail this time.

[@annmarieknapp]

I hope not. Trump will end us.

[@bella50008]

@@annmarieknapp you weren't ended in 2016. Please don't be a mindless sheep all your life. Sheesh.

[@catwoman4509]

He’s absolutely wrong this time!

[@milanrandjelovic9877]

He said even after the June Trump - Biden debate that Biden will win the election 😂

[@johnmills1318]

Only in your Ultra-MAGA wet dream again. 👌🤡👍