From Liquidity To A Credit Crisis

On today's episode of The Macro Trading Floor, Alfonso & Andreas discuss the continued fallout from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, and what it means for markets.
The Fed's H.4.1 report was released this past week, which saw the balance sheet increasing by roughly $300 Billion. The balance sheet increase consisted of a record $152.9 billion usage in the Fed's discount window, $11.9 billion in the Fed's new BTFP facility & a final $142.8bn to guarantee all deposits at SVB and Signature Bank. With a rally in risk asset's, many viewed this as the return of QE, similar to the 2019 repo crisis. In this episode, we discuss whether this is really the return of QE, or not and what it will mean for markets in 2023. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!
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Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.7% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account.* That's a higher yield than a high-yield savings account.** Go to public.com/macrotradingfloor
*26-week T-bill rate (as of 3/19/23) when held to maturity. Rate shown is gross of fees.
**As compared to the national high-yield savings average of 3.43% (Source: Time.com/NextAdvisor as of 12/30/22).
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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[@neworleansjoe]

It was a very bad decision to remove the Glass-Steagall Act in the late 1990s, which led to the spectacular failure of huge banks during the financial crisis of 2007-2008. To prevent another disaster, Dodd-Frank and this statute both need to be reestablished right away. What happened with SVB is only the beginning of what will happen if nothing is done to address the current situation.

[@janeestrada007]

@Mary-Ann P. Alejandro Although the economy has so far held up, the SVB scenario serves as a warning that Fed rate hikes are still having an impact. At times like this, investors must be vigilant about the next inevitability. You don't have to act on every forecast, therefore I'll advise you to hire a financial counselor. This has been my fallback position for a while.

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Given the current inflationary environment, it's unlikely that the stock market will experience significant gains in the near future. However, this doesn't necessarily mean that it's a bad time to consider purchasing stocks. It's important to manage your expectations and understand that it may take some time for the market to rebound. I personally recommend waiting until the economic climate stabilizes in areas of concern before making any major investment decisions. Until then, it's best to steer clear of the turbulence and maintain a cautious approach_______________________,

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[@lauraclover1547]

SVB said earlier this week, that in order to make good on those withdrawals, it had to sell part of its bond holdings at a steep loss of $1.8 billion. Bonds and stocks have been hammered since last year, as the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates aggressively, and SVB also noted it wanted to pare down its bond portfolio to avoid further losses. I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $138k stock portfolio, what’s the best way to take advantage of this bear market?

[@purplebliss6875]

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[@loreall.2461]

Fantastic. I hung onto every word. You guys are a cut above the rest and I’m so proud to be a part of this very enthusiastic group of You Tube fan base. Thanks a gazillion!

[@anonymousAJ]

It's not just pseudo-QE, it's pseudo-YCC They're treating the bonds as if they have a minimum price, which implies maximum yield

[@rohitkothari3890]

U r right. This is ycc

[@loreall.2461]

@@rohitkothari3890 This is all very interesting. So the Fed appears to be engineering a yield curve more to its liking. I’m curious about how many banks have these long bonds given JP Morgan’s statement that the Fed might have to increase its balance sheet up to $2 Trillion to accommodate this crisis. The Fed must know who holds all these long bonds and is getting out front.

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You invest with Julia too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family.

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Amazing to see others who trade with Julia David, I'm currently on my 5th trade with her and my portfolio has grown tremendously.

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Do you mind hooking me up with her? I'm new to this

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[@rohitkothari3890]

Agree with you guys. Specially loved Alf calling out HTM n stress test loopholes in the US regulatory framework.

[@BuonoBruttoCattivo77]

Thanks for the show! Nothing wrong with calling yourself Founder. You started your own companies, and that is a laudable thing.

[@chriscolfer2915]

I don’t understand how they didn’t know rates had to go up!!! I’m not in the financial industry. I’m 52 and I even new the rates had to go up! To think the banks tried to time the market with bonds is crazy and stupid!!!!

[@rickvisser1986]

They know the whole roadmap. For example the consequences of the 2020-2022 QE As well as the consequences of the coming QE It's leading to a break of the system coming decade, which will lead to the next illusion of the CBDC. Knowing this one can prepare 👍🌞

[@sivi9741]

The problem was tina remember ? Banks were force to buy bonds even at all time low ….. And the fed screw them Up with transitory inflation doing QE up to March 2022 !!! Some banks were dumb not to edge it true but the fed made massive mistakes for financial stability which they obv failed .

[@Salomundo]

Excellent show gents! thank you for sharing!

[@darrenpatto2475]

Brilliant guys! As always truly appreciate your wealth of knowledge here.

[@TimHPop776]

Phenomenal conversation gents! Thank you 🙏🏼 (RV Member)

[@frmcf]

I like that Alf has started saying "Welcome back TO the Macro Trading Floor" 👏👏👏

[@davidpatterson4024]

Great job boys!! Thank you!!!

[@rodngou9864]

Good show very insightful & must be share for educationnal purpose

[@klauskarpfen9039]

10:52 Alf telling us, that there is nothing more transitory than a transitory program. I love your program, guys, you're being funny as hell!

[@thenkdshorts9485]

Densely packed with informative content. Bravo.

[@lakshminarayanan-ls5fz]

After credit crisis comes the dollar crisis and then reserve currency crisis and then the cliff to extreme poverty

[@JamesG1126]

Dollar crisis means it gets too strong while the system implodes and a panic flight to safety occurs.

[@klauskarpfen9039]

I should like to flee into the safety of the Rubel. But "they" don't let me buy Rubel, Please, I need help!

[@Lemariecooper]

@@klauskarpfen9039 You should hire a financial advisor to help you diversify your portfolio by including mutual funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the 11 GICS groups, inflation-indexed bonds, and stocks of companies with consistent cash flows rather than growth stocks, where prices are based on future prospective earnings. Following these principles and insights from my CFP, I have made approximately $900,000 since 2022.

[@lakshminarayanan-ls5fz]

@@klauskarpfen9039 the words "rubel, rupee, rupaiya, rupayulu all mean " Silver coin" In sanskrit. Now you know what to get.

[@gaylewilliams4805]

Thank you for the very insightful discussion.

[@sally-78]

love you guys! I'm bit underwater since this is not my area of competence, but the learning curve is interesting!😆

[@jacknaneek1681]

Smart guys and smart thinking. I dont always agree but I respect their thought process

[@anonymouslyominous3]

Thx fellas , good stuff as always

[@woodysprott5790]

Great as usual guys 👍

[@jaynoyes6870]

Thank you. Very helpful

[@mattanderson6672]

Thank you so much guys

[@yourmilitaryadvisor]

Great content gentlemen!

[@ckordiolis]

Great show gentlemen!!

[@chriscleland7008]

Fantastic guys!

[@redsnapper956]

Thanks for the global perspective Guys!

[@squpd2016]

Thanks guys! A suggestion on your audio, Andreas - sounds like your microphone is being affected by some sort of processing in your signal path.. maybe an expander, or perhaps you may be overdriving the volume on one of the gain stages? Anyway - cheers, hoping to be helpful

[@IsaacWendt]

when banks swap the bonds for cash with the FED do they continue to get the yeild from the bonds swapped?

[@dt-jy1ig]

Hard to see this unlike QE in that both exchange collateral (treasury bonds) for cash . In both cases easier monetary conditions.

[@johndavis4948]

I think LCR is yet to be required by US banks, let alone the smaller banks like SVB

[@toprakoyunda9675]

Bro, i bought AAT300X in September after your video. i'm up 79%.

[@jamesberry7150]

In capital creation by any means, especially by debt creation enabled by lowering interest rates, then increasing interest rates would slow or reduce capital created in that manner. Preventing that from happening destroys a large part of why you raised rates. Hope I condensed this for you.

[@justinhodges5462]

Sooo… if an American bank heavily hedged their interest rate risk on H2M holdings, their earnings will be distorted heavily to the upside as the hedges are “realized” in the P&L and the losses on the H2M holding are not?

[@jonathonwagner2166]

U guys are the best. New life goal…pizza and a beer with u guys one day!

[@gold_real_money]

Own real assets is ultimate key for hedging against huge financial crisis

[@jimbobarooney2861]

Alf, Andreas could you do a show for your European listeners regarding bonds, as we can't as I understand purchase US Treasuries, for those of us that feel interest rates will fall in the future, what European bond could/should we be looking at, and can we purchase these through some of the well known European trading platforms, thanks

[@stevemar8027]

original QE was not permanent either ! Those dollars are still and never will be off the balance sheet !…

[@JamesG1126]

This is costly financing for banks. Replacing 0% deposits for 4.75% 1 year term debt is a big charge to earnings.

[@klauskarpfen9039]

Alf will tell us, that the $ 2 trillion of liquidity from the BTFP program, that are urgently needed now in order to prevent a banking crisis, can be taken out again in one year, no problem!

[@anonymousAJ]

I've heard that regulation prevented hedging of HTM securities

[@845Mario]

The US regulator is not so irrational in saying that a bank cannot attach hedging derivative to a Treasury. If a bank hedges a treasury, why would the bank need to keep the treasury in the Hold to Maturity section?

[@gabrielw7773]

QE has been back since October 2022. When bond yields started going down along with DXY. Print money, devalue dollar, to buy bonds and lower bond yields. QE. You can kick it, stomp it, chop it up, call it operation twist, but it's still QE.

[@Matthew-rp3jf]

I'll be following this channel when credit suisse goes under.

[@hamzariazuddin424]

This is incredibly detailed and i love it, Sorry i am not a finance guy so can someone clear this up I understand there are different accounting treatments for an asset depending on those 3 categories (HTM, available for sale, and trading). OK I get that But if a bank has a loan with another bank for 10 years (that long term liability sits on their balance sheet in liability section). Does that long term liability get written down if say IR goes up as well?

[@sirluciussquigglesworthlll6503]

Fantastic

[@11emir644]

New week up as many FOMO in. But the AAT300X story isn’t over yet. The only strat that works under all circumstances is DCA all the time with solid, large companies (not hyped ones).

[@MrModel--CAPTURED-ON-FILM]

I'm just going to share this, which is going to seem 'otherworldly' - I've never been a really big believer in "astrology", but I am open minded about things spiritual. When "COVID" hit and the entire world shut down and it seemed like people everywhere were just falling down dead, I decided to look up anything 'the stars' might be saying about those times. In general - not much. But then I stumbled upon this one site where someone who avoids publicity was interviewed, who compared major events in history and 'the stars' during those times and found that what took place during these unique moments (the plague, the Great Depression, the French Revolution etc) were all combined at this time. Not singular star events, but all of it combined 'as one', all of it happening right now. It was his conjecture that this was sooo significant that he believed that the next twenty years (which started two years ago....) would see such changes that, and he stated...., currencies would disappear, nations would fail, governments would collapse, art forms would completely change - basically, everything we've ever been used to for the past many centuries would all be challenged to such an extent that the world at the opposite end of the next twenty years would become something we wouldn't recognize. What has been interesting to me, having listened to his interview several times, is that what he predicted has in actuality been happening. Currencies have been disappearing or so challenged they could completely disappear - there is serious conversation about 'the dollar' becoming useless on the world stage and being replaced, that nations & governments would collapse - again with the United States the sentiment has become that the US no longer leads and is no longer respected, add to this how Putin has just been charged by an international court & the possibility of war escalating across Europe and possibly in Asia, and more. So, was this star-gazer correct? I'm still not a believer in all things astrology, but from what I've been personally witnessing, I think he may have been on to something.... Plan accordingly! is my humble suggestion.

[@fritzcharles5125]

I am a financial astrologer , next ten days should be ugly but beware of mid may to mid june

[@beserbeser1404]

I'm DCAing in AAT300X as well. ETH heavier DCA and ALGO. I'm taking your advice and starting Google tomorrow with a 50 dollar purchase and continuing Microsoft and Apple. VTI and VOO on another app and longterm portfolio. Here we go family!

[@szymonbaranowski8184]

The beard looks great. Alf would look good in shirt with a white collar. Italy has lots of fancy stylish cloths and it's memorisable.

[@josealmonacid8103]

Guys you HAVE to bring Jeff Snider on the show 🙏

[@heinzgassner1057]

Liquidity by providing repo-solutions under applying par value for bonds ??? Interest rates don’t matter any more ? Price-finding for bonds by market forces becoming history ? This is just continuing the journey into a complete screw-up of economic incentives and valuation. Everything goes. Nothing matters anymore. The rules are arbitrary set from case to case. A nightmare, once again kicking the can down the road.

[@dt-jy1ig]

Educational

[@whippoorwillss]

Question: wouldn't now be a good time to buy stock in the big 4 US banks? They are now back stopped by the FED. They are now in effect guaranteed profits on their Treasury holdings. They pay over 3.10% dividend. And their stock prices have already been hammered down over the last week.

[@stanleytomasetti1074]

is the collateral 100% of the "loan"?

[@timgoodson4418]

we need more alf unhinged

[@vincentmurphy9252]

Is Janet yellow dead? I think she said that about 2 years ago she will not see a financial crisis in her lifetime

[@bradleyqueen3879]

Oh yeah, I remember that. Lol. She needs to go.

[@cfwin1776]

It will be QE with some touches of interest-rate hikes. QE for the rich. Rate hikes for the middle class.

[@sivi9741]

Exactly !

[@sethhersch]

Genuinely curious about Alf's comments starting at 22:55 because my understanding is Accounting Standards Codification Topic 815 *does* allow US banks to use hedge accounting for swaps used to hedge interest rate risk against HTM bonds provided there is formal documentation, the notional matches the bond(s) being hedged, they are provably effective, etc. But Alf (who knows a bunch more about this than I do) seems to suggest the opposite? Anyone have any ideas what I'm missing??

[@johnbirman5840]

Interesting. If I understood correctly, the bailout of the long dated bonds came in the form of a loan - for 1 year, thereby kicking off the capital deterioration of those loans “down the road” (I assume there is also a “charge” for this loan as well) Could this not be a very strong signal that a year from now, interests rates will be lower - thereby erasing some, or much of that capital deterioration. In other words, making a futures contract on those treasuries knowing that you - being the Fed, will guarantee that the value of those present bonds will be going up. If this is true, this would be a form of legal insider trading. Something politicians often employ when knowing ahead of time, that the legislation they are working on will cause a stock to go up, or down. Quite clever, though totally illegal if those of us on the outside attempted to try.

[@ScorBey.S]

Can AAT300X be staked on Ledger?

[@nobodysfool2232]

These guys get it. Subscribe.

[@GenXstacker]

Yep. It's back.

[@lydiamadonia8002]

Can Andreas speak louder? There are times when his comments lose volume. Thanks! Great commentary guys.

[@mp3magnet]

Can someone explain to me what stops banks from exchanging their low yielding treasuries for funds through the scheme implemented last weekend , only to go and buy better yielding treasuries . Thus government will be forced to pay delta in yields thus contributing to the deficit. Plus what happens in a year. Why would anybody expect for yields to drop significantly and thus creating any incentive for the banks to pick up their lower yielding treasuries

[@pjdelucala]

The balance sheet with its hedges is not realistic. It looks nice on paper but that is about it. You are assuming that swaps can be paid off by those institutions that have sold those swaps. AIG back in 2009 could not pay off its swaps that it collected premiums on. Professor Peter de Luca: Economist

[@EminiOsFuturesTrader]

Thank God we have strong banks in Canada and we only have 6 major banks Not like other countries where you canlt even count the number of banks out there

[@davidlasoff8261]

It's very curious to me that the FED calls buying bonds QE which if we just think about it, in effects, removes the various instruments for sale on the market. Doesn't reducing the supply cause the price to go up and naturally, the availability of collateral to shrink? Same about QT but in reverse. I think these names obfuscate what the FED buying/selling actually does which is the opposite of the names they've given these activities as part of their PR game that fools the public who take the bankers at their word. Chime in if you think I have this right or wrong.

[@handler8838]

fed buying creates demand which lowers the yield of bonds, which eases financial conditions. Naming is correct.

[@leeeeee286]

> Doesn't reducing the supply cause the price to go up and naturally, the availability of collateral to shrink If a bond price goes up its yield goes down. So by your own logic QE decreases borrowing costs and lowers returns. Lower borrowing costs mean more incentive to borrow, and lower returns mean more incentive to take risk for yield. I don't think the exact impact of QE/QT on economic conditions are well understood though. These are relatively new tools and can be implemented in different ways, so we don't have great models.

[@martintheguitarist]

How anyone can describe this as not QE is beyond me. In 2008 they also said QE was temporary and 15 years later the fed's balance sheet is 8x. Just then they were lending to the government. Of course this new not QE will be extended to infinity just like the other ones unless interest rates go back to zero. Otherwise everyone is back to bank runs. And by the way, watch Jeffrey Gundlach's latest interview on CNBC. He clearly said that anyone who thinks banks could have hedged their bonds simply doesn't understand the markets. Hedging such a low coupon bond eats away any nominal yield you might have had and in addition now you have counter party risk too.

[@danielfoxworth2041]

Is this new program of fed for us banks only

[@klauskarpfen9039]

10:52 Oh, it is VERY different from QE! They invented TRANSITORY QE! Just like they invented "Transitory inflation", right?

[@togoni]

They have no idea

[@tunahaneker]

Any thoughts on AAT300X ? it's the best thing since slice bread.

[@johnmerlino7011]

Guys, I'm thinking that we are in Stagflation, where GDP will decline and Inflation will stay elevated. I think in Q2-3 we will have a recession and the Fed will drop short-term interest rates BUT the long-end will stay elevated and move higher with the "Debt Ceiling" discussions /fight in June/July. The 10 year could spike and the inverted curve would 'right it self'.in late 2023. In 2011, the Debt Ceiling fight caused the long end to spike. I'm holding off from buying TLT until this fight is over in July.

[@heinzgassner1057]

Why should now anyone keep money in banks? Transfer it to your broker account, get better insurance, invest yourself into treasury instruments and get much better interest rates than you can get from a lousy savings account - under no risk. This is just the beginning of the nightmare. And the commercial real-estate bomb not even exploded yet.

[@greenspand]

How is that not inflationary and a systemic symptom.

[@mhmmdabdullayev-ob8tz]

Now that Amazons AAT300X is around it's all about the question when and how much. I prefer this over ATOM, ALGO, L2 based ones and whatsoever

[@calz_gainz2022]

Quantitative easing is printing more money and creating more debt from nothing and loaning it at interest!

[@bhushangupta8736]

Please talk about counterparties of hedges and swaps . Who are these? Gain on bank side is loss on counterparty side . Why will these counterparties do it ? My guess is these counterparties are greedy hedge funds? Yes or no

[@htleong4790]

Here come QE again. Hello inflation. Nice to meet you again. We will probably meet up more often when the other countries sell of their treasury bonds.

[@klauskarpfen9039]

9:38 Oh, it is NOT permanent - so it is TRANSITORY, right? And will definitely be discontinued after one year, with no chance to roll the bonds over into a similar program, right, right, Andreas, please say, I am right-?

[@brettb2932]

If we are driving a car this would be called drifting. Hitting the gas while braking too!

[@JamesG1126]

Held to Maturity accounting is fraudulent in the US. Schwab had $0 in HTM securities at 12-31-21 then transferred $172 billion to HTM by 12-31-22. "We changed our mind." Yea, after seeing the bonds plunge in value.

[@Samuel88853]

The whole US financial system is insolvent, its all accounting tricks to hide the truth

[@Samuel88853]

Gold to the moon

[@yusufaydn5139]

After the Etherem ecosystem, AAT300X is the best ecosystem available on the market and most people don't understand this yet, I believe due to lack of marketing. Thank you so much for bringing us this kind of content!

[@luckynio6528]

So everyone talking about bank crisis how about debt ceiling?

[@fishtherapy100]

No furniture. Things must be really bad

[@uawsux]

people don't understand something the FDIC is an insurance company and overall they have limited funds if several Banks fail this will exhaust FDIC and people will only receive a portion

[@yamomanemjazz]

Ok. But I can barely understand the half of the balance sheet I understand. Stop yelling at us Alfie 😭😭😭

[@Berataltn_13]

AAT300X, ETH, and more would be great.

[@yuglesstube]

It's not QE. Nor is it inflationary. I have to say that America is a disaster area. Where are the regulators? And why so many banks? Why so little common sense? Yes, funds will flow to safety. This is going to be a big crunch. Very interesting and thoughtful. Thanks

[@robertrotman7730]

lol in 2010 QE was supposed to turn to QT as soon as possible 2023 balance sheet has still not been unwound; hard to even start and continue nothing is as permanent as a temporary govt program

[@walterblake1]

Alf is trying to tell is this isn't a bailout... ahahahahahahahahahh

[@javi3121]

The safest collateral is not safe anymore.

[@johgndavis8159]

They try to hide this fact

[@coolboy-ug7qd]

You cant fight the AAT300X Fomo haha

[@blackbeardpapa9547]

Andreas...my god, what the hell is with that Viking look? Oh wait... you are a Viking

[@Wxxy77]

Could you please talk about AAT300X it’s very strong and took off in short time thanks