Gambling 5 Milion Gold | Expected Profit Analysis | Path of Exile 2

[@mctonyward]

dont vendor try the reforge bench

[@Kusnierr]

True should have done that, forgot about it.

[@jrkane4579]

How do you get back to the originalk non hide out thing youre in? Alva isnt in hideout and the act 3 alva sells lower quality stuff, am i just screwed??

[@Kusnierr]

It's Act3 Ziggurat Encampment (Past)

[@ДенисМазенков-ж7ц]

just edit your hideout, go to NPC tab and add Alva

[@Kusnierr]

@@ДенисМазенков-ж7ц Have you actually tried that? It was the first thing I did and it doesn't work. She doesn't offer gamble in hideout.

[@HiImOmeleta]

@@ДенисМазенков-ж7ц bro just giving out advices that dont work

[@skimt7818]

Conclusion: ~1 in 6 for Rare. ~1 in 30 for Unique, given a Rare. ~1 in 180 overall for Unique. Results from Python simulation (written by me): Simulating 10,000 runs to acquire 1 desired unique amulet out of 21 unique amulets, 1 time(s)... Avg. Attempts: 3,791.04 Avg. Gold: 113,731,149.00 Probability: 63.32% Execution Time: 3.44 seconds Simulating 10,000 runs to acquire 1 desired unique amulet out of 21 unique amulets, 2 time(s)... Avg. Attempts: 7,561.27 Avg. Gold: 226,838,124.00 Probability: 86.47% Execution Time: 6.88 seconds Simulating 10,000 runs to acquire 1 desired unique amulet out of 21 unique amulets, 3 time(s)... Avg. Attempts: 11,282.49 Avg. Gold: 338,474,580.00 Probability: 94.95% Execution Time: 10.33 seconds Simulating 10,000 runs to acquire 1 desired unique amulet out of 21 unique amulets, 4 time(s)... Avg. Attempts: 15,218.48 Avg. Gold: 456,554,490.00 Probability: 98.22% Execution Time: 13.93 seconds Simulating 10,000 runs to acquire 1 desired unique amulet out of 21 unique amulets, 5 time(s)... Avg. Attempts: 19,000.89 Avg. Gold: 570,026,742.00 Probability: 99.34% Execution Time: 17.37 seconds Simulating 10,000 runs to acquire 1 desired unique amulet out of 21 unique amulets, 6 time(s)... Avg. Attempts: 22,702.72 Avg. Gold: 681,081,504.00 Probability: 99.75% Execution Time: 20.82 seconds Simulating 10,000 runs to acquire 1 desired unique amulet out of 21 unique amulets, 7 time(s)... Avg. Attempts: 26,447.52 Avg. Gold: 793,425,522.00 Probability: 99.91% Execution Time: 24.20 seconds Simulating 10,000 runs to acquire 1 desired unique amulet out of 21 unique amulets, 8 time(s)... Avg. Attempts: 30,285.68 Avg. Gold: 908,570,445.00 Probability: 99.97% Execution Time: 27.74 seconds Simulating 10,000 runs to acquire 1 desired unique amulet out of 21 unique amulets, 9 time(s)... Avg. Attempts: 34,029.34 Avg. Gold: 1,020,880,254.00 Probability: 99.99% Execution Time: 31.13 seconds Simulating 10,000 runs to acquire 1 desired unique amulet out of 21 unique amulets, 10 time(s)... Avg. Attempts: 37,891.95 Avg. Gold: 1,136,758,389.00 Probability: 99.99% Execution Time: 35.20 seconds Total Runtime: 191.03 seconds

[@skimt7818]

In other words, 3791 gambling attempts will yield you a 63% probability of acquiring the unique amulet you want. While 63% may sound like a good ideal, in reality, in order to almost assure that you will get the amulet you want, you will have to gamble 19,000 times. That is 570,000,000 gold.

[@Kusnierr]

Nice. Only 570 million.

[@skimt7818]

@@Kusnierr :P

[@akidlly]

Do you think the uniques are evenly weighted?

[@Kusnierr]

@@akidlly Nahh. It'll be like a 1% roll for unique, and then when you roll a unique it does a further roll based on the weight of each unique.

[@제리-f9u]

I used 50 of them, but not a single summon skill came out. 😭

[@justinjahn8341]

Why do I not have a gambling vendor in my hideout?

[@Kusnierr]

There just isn't one, you need to do it in the post-campaign zone with Alva

[@Felipelpzal]

Whats your crafting process?

[@Kusnierr]

Aug/Regal and then exalt if it's looking like has potential.

[@laQwoter]

Closing eyes involved

[@psyjinx]

Slam Chaos Essence> hit chaos damage > throw it in the trash

[@xdxd-ej2zz]

how do you get alva to sell stuff?

[@Archangel591]

In the end-game? I think she doesn't work in the personal hideout but if you go to the Cruel Act III Ziggurat area, as you see in his video, she sells stuff.

[@RawvTalent]

Ziggurat encampment (Past) after beating act 3 cruel she will always be there for gambling until they update the Alva in hideout.

[@ckim2439]

Does magic find apply to gambling?

[@Kusnierr]

No

[@Kardall]

I wish :(

[@ckim2439]

@@Kardall I wish they had mf a high prio like d2. And add gold find too! Haha

[@KB44444]

I'm level 50 and when I buy store items it has given me like 10 blue items in a row... I'm done

[@KB44444]

I would almost rather it give no blues, and just cost more... I don't ge exalts to craft with anyways

[@Archangel591]

A good double mod blue is worth more than most rares. Because there's a chance you can upgrade it to be extremely good, while most rares roll a bunch of garbage and you have less room to improve on it. So don't knock the rarity.

[@WutherWave-qc3ud]

Getting 5 mill gold is the true flex dropped from 1 mill to 336k is there a way to get million an hour?

[@Kusnierr]

No haha, I probably make 300k/h blasting T15+ waystones

[@WutherWave-qc3ud]

@@Kusnierr i’m still shocked you had 5 million!!! Damn thats beautiful to me thats a win easily

[@mrmatticus9693]

this is before people knew that armor was bad

[@onebrainman3008]

Instructions on trade website were unclear I sold my lightning unique gloves for 1 orb

[@ricardosharry8944]

Sadness

[@NowThat-uc1qo]

What is this extra tab I’m seeing with things categorized? Some sort of add on?

[@Kardall]

They're just the stash tabs, but you can color and name them.

[@addison6536]

yeah last night I let the modelos talk and lost my 100k savings at level 50 I love gambling

[@pko7473]

No more tibia videos for a while I guess…

[@Kusnierr]

There will be, I have like 5 recorded and waiting, just don't want to publish too many videos at once. Next Tibia video this weekend I think.

[@pko7473]

@ looking forward to it. Thanks for all the content you have made tho, it has been a game changer for some of us

[@tret6362]

no way anything other than the jade ammy is selling for more than 10 ex tbh.

[@Kusnierr]

Both the gold amulets I listed for 100 ex sold within an hour

[@breakthecode4634]

​@@Kusnierr straight up lie

[@Kardall]

You have to realize, that it's going to get higher the more people hit mapping in end game. There is so much more loot drops, so more chances for ex/divines to drop there. Especially with boss map nodes. People who have not hit the map stages won't see the difference, won't have the amount of currency they have, and they are the ones that can set prices.

[@tret6362]

@@Kardall true that im grossly miscalculating the rate of inflation on the trade website. Just feels weird that these rolls could be bought for 1-10ex like 3 days ago. When I saw the exchange rates for div:ex shoot up from 1:10 to 1:30 I thought it was rmters inflating the market 😭😭

[@ChillAutos]

@@tret6362I bought gear a week ago for 5ex that is now selling for 25ex, same for gear I bought for 15ex some of it is selling for upwards of 70ex. Inflation is real. The real way to get rich in Poe is to get to maps early because you’re efficiency goes wayyyy up and you’ll often be able to upgrade into your next set of gear by selling your current set for 3-10x what you bought it for, and then at that time your next set might not be inflated yet as people simply don’t have the currency yet. In a couple weeks people will have more currency and that 40ex ammy could be worth 150ex.

[@jurpo6]

Your prices are ridiculous lol. 10ex tops for most of those

[@Kusnierr]

Both of the 100 ex ones sold within an hour. You can try pricing them in trade yourself to understand why.