Understanding China

[@GeopoliticalFuturesGPF]

Thank you for listening to the Talking Geopolitics podcast. Go to www.geopoliticalfutures.com/podcast for more and to leave your comments.

[@满愿头陀]

You do not analyze China's behavior purely from a Western mentality and calculation bypassing the impact of Chinese cultural trait (for one, face), historical insecurity (if not trauma) and national pride on Chinese contemporary mindset. It is not a matter of right or wrong. It is a matter of what are --- relevant realities to be dealt with that can't be ignored. One grave issue that all who deal with China have to face is Taiwan issue. Taiwan issue is a matter beyond simple calculation of pure material concerns. It is a core issue involving Chinese pride after 2 centuries of national humiliation vividly remembered and constantly reminded. Eventually Chinese as a people are willing to pay a considerable price to redeem their national pride long hurt in the hands of the Western powers and Japan. Calculation can only influence the choice of timing for reunification. No amount of reasoning can permanently suppress this collective urge for reunification. The West has long neglect this aspect when they scheme on or calculate about China. This will eventually prove no small mistake. The only right way for world peace is a genuine humility to understand each other in order to find common ground for mutual survival. Talking down or demonizing the other party to satisfy the sense of self-righteousness will never help to find a solution to the threat to world peace. Chinese think tank have worked so hard to understand the West and rightly understand the West quite deeply. Thus they predicted quite accurately about the West in the past. On the other hand, very few Western think tank are capable of understanding China and yet they continue to comment about China with arrogance. That is why their predictions about China have failed for decades. I suggest you listen more to China experts such as Prof. Kishore Mahbubhani and better still the Chinese think tank's ideas in original Chinese. These should provide an insight closer to understanding this big topic about China and Chinese mind. All political analysis are futile if they cannot contribute to better judgment and decision-making. And one key yardstick for good performance of political analysis is the accuracy in predicting the unfolding of events.

[@Noelito40]

Interesting to listen back to these prognostications with the benefit of hindsight. The last expert was wrong on Russia, but it shows how hard it is to predict things!

[@mattpreston7298]

The map top right is reversed

[@jameskellenberger8740]

Our politicians need to listen

[@kienwenchang7108]

Among the major economies, breaking oligopoly is probably easiest with China. China's economic model is founded on large-size export-focused tendencies. The pressure certainly real and visible. Many other smaller Chinese companies and smaller companies in small economies aren't big benefactors of globalization and Big-size economies dominating. The Chinese Underworld can no longer be obsessed with scooping real estates and members-link business orders anymore. The part of their legitimate Wealth ought to benefit their brothers in Haiti, Guatemala and Burundi. The remaining illegitimate Wealth is destined for confiscations. Civilizations Schemes so efficient, it ought to do wonderful things. Ask oneself, why would any stranger-individual want to become target of Civilizations Conspiracy Schemes? Chinese Underworld doing strange things to Chinese Religions. It's time to examine.

[@rodgerhempfing2921]

Is he always Right?

[@quintuschan8022]

shit,they don't much about China.

[@满愿头陀]

We cannot analyze China's behavior purely from a Western mentality and calculation bypassing the impact of Chinese cultural trait (for one, face), historical insecurity (if not trauma) and national pride on Chinese contemporary mindset. It is not a matter of right or wrong. It is a matter of what are --- relevant realities to be dealt with that can't be ignored. One grave issue that all who deal with China have to face is Taiwan issue. Taiwan issue is a matter beyond simple calculation of pure material concerns. It is a core issue involving Chinese pride after 2 centuries of national humiliation vividly remembered and constantly reminded. Eventually Chinese as a people are willing to pay a considerable price to redeem their national pride long hurt in the hands of the Western powers and Japan. Calculation can only influence the choice of timing for reunification. No amount of reasoning can permanently suppress this collective urge for reunification. The West has long neglect this aspect when they scheme on or calculate about China. This will eventually prove no small mistake. The only right way for world peace is a genuine humility to understand each other in order to find common ground for mutual survival. Talking down or demonizing the other party to satisfy the sense of self-righteousness will never help to find a solution to the threat to world peace. Chinese think tank have worked so hard to understand the West and rightly understand the West quite deeply. Thus they predicted quite accurately about the West in the past. On the other hand, very few Western think tank are capable of understanding China and yet they continue to comment about China with arrogance. That is why their predictions about China have failed for decades. It is worthy to listen more to China experts such as Prof. Kishore Mahbubhani and better still the Chinese think tank's ideas in original Chinese. These should provide an insight closer to understanding this big topic about China and Chinese mind. All political analysis are futile if they cannot contribute to better judgment and decision-making. And one key yardstick for good performance of political analysis is the accuracy in predicting the unfolding of events.

[@michaelwoodsmccausland915]

Argentina Is the Key!

[@johnsmith-mv8hq]

The idea that the Great Powers have too much to lose through war was the key argument of Angell's thesis c.1914. The German anticipation of a war of speed and delivering the region with a fait a complait and establishing itself as the regional hegemon through rapid war was, I believe, a key part in Germany's decisions for war in 1914. Everyone in 1914 had planned for a short war. Very few in German high command foresaw prolonged operations. What if China makes the same calculation re Taiwan? Taiwan, having little claim to sovereignty in the UN allows China a fancy, if unconvincing, legal loop-hole for excusing military action to conquer Taiwan. Miscalculation is the worry - not the mutual benefits states receive from the synthesis of the present global interconnections. Xi needs to bolster his claims to power and legacy by acting on the promises he made to restore China's former (if imagined) glories. If he fails to act re Taiwan, are there rival power factions in Chinese elites that could exploit his weakness and expel him from power? Does he fear this and will this fear of internal dissent drive his actions for foreign conquest?

[@2KSnSLifestyle]

Many western observers didn't realize that Taiwan is the other government of China in exile and the Taiwan government claims the whole of mainland China, Outer Mongolia, the first and second island chain and the Senkaku island with the blessing of the US government. There's no need for mainland China to invade Taiwan and there's no incentive for Taiwan to declare independence. The Taiwan constitution has not changed since 1949, it is still the constitution of the Republic of China.

[@tezausbra8]

And North Korea

[@Kuasarakyat2]

Good reporting but with no faces or video... 🤗??? To subscribe? 😅

[@alliesteamc3546]

It would be helpful for you review the historical relations of Taiwan as a province of China.

[@ZachSmith94]

Taiwan has never been a part of the PRC. Taiwan is technically a province of the Republic of China, AKA Sun's China. The Qing were all too happy to grant Taiwan to the Japanese in the treaty of Shimonoseki, as only half of the island was inhabited by Chinese peoples, and they really didn't have much involvment (relatively) in Taiwan anyway. It was mostly just Chinese settlers, through the centuries, spurred by the Dutch to go and settle Taiwan. Japan ruled Taiwan until 1945, when it was granted to the Republic of China, and then the nationalists fled to Taiwan as the communists successfully fomented revolutionaries by manipulating the interal situation pre and post-war. There was also another Taiwanese break previously, during Ming, but I find it less interesting, as it doesn't compare to the current situation much. Generally, the southern regions of China are the most pre-disposed to revolution for a few reasons. Taiwan is, effectively, a hostile nation in the first-island chain with tacit support of US and Japan. China has a rather weak navy. They won't be able to gain control in any reasonable timeframe due to multiple factors aside from feasability of an invasion; China is in a lockdown to try and keep its current regions from succumbing to yellow banner factions. Next 20 years will be very hard for China internally, if it is able to survive. Conversely, once the CCP crumbles, I see Taiwan emerging as a real economic player in the region. It already punches above its weight, but without their pressure, they'll be able to truly shine.

[@chrismagliolo6930]

@@ZachSmith94 Succinct, to the point, and solid analysis. The sophisticated analysts holding on to their view from five or ten years ago need to begin taking a lot of other factors. I wonder what happens when Beijing has less ability to hold on to the more separatist southern regions and Taiwan is seen as a more viable ally. I’d go so far as to encourage a theoretical “southern China” under democratic rule to utilize the SCS, including the islands as an economic base for its energy needs and regional energy needs. But enshrine it in treaty with their regional allies and neighbors while helping to ensure that global interests are not pushed out.

[@chrisgreene2623]

Why it has been a democracy for awhile, free from the autocratic CCP since 1949 and before that occupied by Japan. China's claim occurs around 1750 . Let the democratic people of Taiwan decide their own fate. China still claims Vladastock. I doubt the Russians would agree. It 's a nationalisitic thug and bully towards many of it's neighbors. Just ask the Indians and recently the Phillipines about China's arrogance

[@chrismagliolo6930]

There’s no such thing as state capitalism. Mercantilist?? Ineffective?? Inefficient?? Corrupt??

[@chrismagliolo6930]

@@martinfalkenberg7896 Cut out the authoritarian regime and there’s no need for “state capitalism”.

[@Exodus26.13Pi]

This's is aging well.

[@antskilu1354]

george said that rus need massive investment from chi, many investments were forbidden in rus.far east and chi.implimented sanctions on rus.fish ,allie maybe not right word ,friend who helping get into trouble and then trade on troubles like rus.often does

[@laszlokovacs6154]

Recession is just a way the insider make profit. Are you kidding yourself or just selling us the usual BS!? 😄

[@chongyeeyap9586]

George is not acedemic, just a coffee shop intellectual. Not worth listening to! Bogus.

[@alliesteamc3546]

Taiwan is like Hawaii or Texas to China. Would US accept China selling military weapons and supporting Hawaiians to declare independence from United States? What are the military implications in speed of adverse action. Why is this a priority use of American tax dollars? Why is not money being invested to help unemployed sick elderly homeless and domestic weaknesses instead?

[@edward6066]

Semiconductors out of Taiwan. Also, you know, everything else. Also, which sick elderly homeless and domestic weakness are you referring to?

[@chrismagliolo6930]

Taiwan is not a province. So it’s nothing like Wuhan or Fujian. That makes it similar to Texas It’s an island so maybe that makes it like the Hawaiian islands. But it’s de facto independent, thus it’s not like any of the above. It’s similar to South Korea. It’s similar to Australia. It’s a priority because the replacement of the current financial system with whatever the the CCP would come up with is not acceptable under any circumstances.

[@nickm1727]

Taiwan has an independent government, military, and economic system. The Chinese Communist Party was never able to capture Taiwan from the arguably legitimate Chinese government that sits in Taiwan. The problem is Communist China is turning out to be the Nazi Germany of the 21st century, by first invading/annexing territories and contesting land claims (Hong Kong, Taiwan, Tibet, India, Vietnam, Mongolia, South China Sea), setting up concentration camps, crushing dissent to CCP power at home (internet censorship, surveillance), and putting the nation into a wartime footing. It would be good to stop this trend before things get worse.

[@jaytee4482]

@@nickm1727 concentration camps? No, real evidence? Yawn, it is boring, yawn! HK is part of China, get a clue! The us with the support of its allies has been sanctioning, invading, bombing and regime changing all over the world, has China done that? It is time for you to educate yourself. which country is the villain here?

[@nickm1727]

@@jaytee4482 the country that silences its own people (internet, media, press, comedy, movies, etc) and does not allow political dissent will always be the villain. add on genocide in xinjiang and no way to hold your politicians accountable, since there are no independent courts or elections, and you have a recipe for disaster in China thanks to the CCP.

[@johnnewsom2059]

Not sure George knows what he talking about, his take on china and Taiwan not very insightful more like I read this in a newspaper and here's my take.

[@tuw2528]

That’s a jackass comment, how many times has the government used your services for geopolitical analysis?

[@johnnewsom2059]

@@tuw2528 just that once

[@112deeps]

@@tuw2528 saving grace... One being not sure!

[@alliesteamc3546]

How much is America losing by its misperception and its aggression and support for Taiwan? Why is this a priority?

[@puppy6646]

Dude says "Um" too much. Sounds so nervous, he's on the verge of crying. Cringe.