George Friedman and Rodger Baker on the Post-China 16

[@pekau]

I still doubt that Eastern Africa will make it... not because of political instability, but social instability. Sudan is hopeless where they can't even have some form of security (which China achieved a long time ago), Uganda still has not made significant steps like Xiapeng did to undo the damages done by Idi Amin. I can see Tanzania as a possible candidate to imitate China, but the lack of cohesive force to organize and promote economic growth lacks there to this day. I do agree that Southeastern Asia is slowly filling in the China's niche as a manufacturing bases. I know a lot of Japanese and Korean companies relocating from Chinese mainland to places like Malaysia, Philippines, Indonesia, and so forth.

[@sinisterstarfish3514]

I'm beginning to develop a huge intellectual crush on George Friedman. He has this smirking, Oliver Stone-like approach to reality which is found far to seldom in discussions on current affairs.

[@Tarik360]

Philippe Zimmermann whelp, time to research who Oliver stone is.

[@darrenrenna]

Have you read any of his books? He wrote one in the early 1990's about America's coming war with Japan--incorrect prediction, which I think informs some of his analysis of China

[@LinhHLe]

Rebirth of the West because the US found a new one , China

[@tehranaustin6554]

INCOHERENT!!😂😂

[@sebastiaanmulder8896]

I remembered this video the other day and went back to see how accurate it was six years on. Pretty spot on I'd say!

[@budisoemantri2303]

True now Southeast Asia is manufacturing hub

[@sdprz7893]

@@budisoemantri2303 The East Africans are next, the Ethiopians are the third fastest growing country on earth so looks like this was bang on

[@Withnail1969]

what? literally everything i buy from amazon is made in China here in 2020. The quality of the products is also excellent compared to a decade ago. Friedman is spewing delusional nonsense as usual. Not only that, China and the Asian countries have just signed a free trade agreement.

[@PoliticalMatter]

What if they all dump US like China, Russia, India, EU. Enough is enough US, you have done enough.

[@felipegindri]

Saludos a Mexico y Peru!!! Hermanos americanos crescendo unidos! Good thoughts from Brazil.

[@manassurya2019]

George Friedman has repeatedly dismissed India as an economic power, even though it is growing faster than any of the 16 countries mentioned above. He has an impression of India, and he is sticking to it, regardless of the actual ground reality.

[@manassurya2019]

In addition to that India has a technological and knowledge base that all the other 16 countries lack, not to mention the 280 million middle class. Sure India might not grow as fast as China, but it's the next best bet.

[@manofsan]

I'm more than glad that India itself has been omitted from mention among this list of "Indian Ocean Basin" countries. As per George Friedman's reference to China's Cultural Revolution, India is likewise suffering through its own version of that civil war under the misrule of Rajiv Gandhi's widow. It's not until the tyrannical Sonia Gandhi and her cronyist kleptocracy are thrown out that India will be able to move on into a China-style period of growth and progress.

[@gaetanrochon9498]

It's interesting to see and understand how economical dynamics are shaping politics and international relations and not the other way around. The word rotation helps to provide oneself a representation but one shouldn't make the mistake to fall into the 'it's somebody else's turn' while it might as well still be your turn.

[@manofsan]

As an Indian I agree with you. However, opposition to foreign investment is not so much illogical as rather part of a perverse logic. Politicians are an interest group unto themselves, and they rely heavily on populism as their stock and trade in order to preserve their power and privilege. Obviously foreign investment requires accountability to investors outside the clutches of these compulsive practitioners of populism. So politicians won't go that route, and ignorant voters don't know better.

[@FearAnUlaidh]

The BBC also recognises the upcoming success of the African nations in the Great Rift Valley, they did a piece on it about a month or two ago. I must say it raised my eyebrows when it aired.

[@martymcfly5423]

George Friedman is awesome. such a smooth soft voice and telling fairy tales all day long. its great for going to sleep =)

[@augustopinochet7587]

jhgjhgj hgjhgdj it's not fairy tales

[@twireco]

c'mon hahaha

[@michaelnj700]

This video is 3 years old. I think that Ukraine will take this turn too. In Europe. This is what Poland did but now cost of labor there is rising and people can work in whole EU without any limitations. Production in Ukraine can be running under $200 for a worker|month.

[@UAGR323]

Mexico and Indonesia look to be the most promising. Get me in an optimist mood and I'll include the Philippines. The first two countries will definitely butt heads to be the next China. I gotta say though, in manufacturing Mexico has the advantage with the most free-trade agreements of any country, low wages, skilled labor, competitive infrastructure, and proximity to the United States.

[@jensdanbolt6953]

e8iMm7KE999 3D printing is by default very energy demanding per unit, because it has to melt all the material before it can shape anything from it. Classic machining techniques like drilling, cutting, welding etc. are all faster and more energy efficient. This makes the classic methods superior for mass production. 3D-printing is great for single, small components, because the same machine can make pretty much anything, so you don't need 4 different machines and a trained mechanic just for making that one piece you need.

[@DanielleTinkov]

I know it's not a country, but nobody can honestly look at PRC as a unitary nation. The economic disparity between the coastal regions and the interiour of the country are so great that in no objective fashion the western parts can be considered a developed nation. The eastern parts have the GDP of western european nation and the living standard to match it so I count them as developed.

[@creedddzz]

George Friedman's prediction are either wrong or we are too early

[@genghiskhanye]

The predictions in East Africa did not take into consideration the political risk. Ethiopia, the fastest growing economy in the world is facing a potential clash between the Oromo, Tigrey and Amharic tribes. Kenya's politics are tribal, the elite is corrupt, the unemployment is high and the geographic proximity with Somalia makes it a fragile nation. Uganda is becoming an authoritarian state with the failure of president Museveni (+30 years in power) to create a viable political transition. Any political vacuum will ignite existing rivalries between ancient kingdoms (Toro, Buganda, Hima etc.) The recent discovery of huge gas reservers in Tanzania makes it battle ground between super powers (US, Russia & China).

[@luckychops2162]

Genghis Khanye Nkrumah, when China started its economic growth the country had went through the great leap, the cultural war, and the gang of four in the past couple decades. It did not apear stable or likely to prosper. I doubt all of these countries will advance, but a number of them will because of the advantages laid out here.

[@danielstapler4315]

Is China going to transition from manufacturing cheap goods to making high-quality goods ? It might not be the same but in 1914 Ford doubled the wages of his workers to 5$ a day for a number of reasons including the fact that he wanted his workers to earn enough to buy one of his cars. Many Chinese workers can't afford the goods they make, but surely that situation can be improved.

[@ClarksonsinUSA]

Have you travel to China and then to the west,there 100s of millions that dont even have electricity in 2013 in China...The three Gorges Dam,there is a shanty town in the shadows of the dam....We were very surprised ,but poverty in China is normal....

[@ntskl]

Keenya?

[@tbseow344]

This was dated Aug 2013. The 16 countries r still the same. These guys talked about China painting the stereotype picture. Fast forward to 2019. It's way different from what they forecast.

[@OAlem]

Scroll down for a lot of crappy English.

[@matthewbrazil1]

All of the 16 countries plausibly belong on the "Post-China" list - no need for "raised eyebrows." Each of these nations has within its reach one or more industrial sectors that China now or recently contributed to with its low wage, export model. All 16 are at least candidates to take over a slice of manufacturing. Whether they all can achieve and maintain a sustainable share of this pie for more than a few years remains to be seen.

[@ClarksonsinUSA]

Dont be bitter....Some live us,others just get by YOU....

[@DanielleTinkov]

In China the situation is quite different. The richest province have GDP as PPP of $22,242 while the poorest $4,674. This is difference of 5 times. The Chinese government does not yet have a social safety net that covers all territories equally and movement between them is restricted. If the Richest province was the US, the poorest is the Republic of Guinea. Additionally I did not came up with that division. The Chinese own government uses it.

[@ClarksonsinUSA]

You are correct...The future is about innovation,automation and cheap domestic energy..And the shale boom in natural gas and oil...Cheaper domestic energy to power the boom in manufacturing...

[@miamihurricane555]

Colombia will also rapidly grow as they are the most free market country in Latin America.

[@miamihurricane555]

+luigi jimenez en primer lugar se escribe " No they are not". Segundo, es cierto que Colombia no es el país más capitalista ese título se va a Chile. Pero después de Chile, Colombia es la más capitalista.

[@miamihurricane555]

+luigi jimenez I would have written to you in English if you could write it properly. As to you not believing Colombia's relative economic freedom all you have to do is look at the various economic freedom indices that consistently show Colombia in the top 3 for the Latin America and Caribbean region. While Colombia has issues with corruption; Uruguay has even bigger issue with financial freedom. State involvement in the economy causes Uruguay to finish in 6th place in the same region. This isn't to bash Uruguay, they rank above developed nations like France and Spain. But the reality is that Colombia is committed to capitalism and while corruption along with weakness in the rule of law are glaring weaknesses. They are no greater challenges than what Uruguay has to face.

[@miamihurricane555]

+luigi jimenez Incredible how self hating you are. I tried to have a civilized conversation with you about this and instead the moment you are confronted with facts you resort to insults. Instead of hating yourself for being Hispanic. Embrace it and learn about your culture and heritage instead of ostracizing it.

[@miamihurricane555]

+luigi jimenez ignoramus, not going to keep responding to someone who isn't interested in reason. This is my last posting on the matter

[@etbadaboum]

Startfor doesn't do forecast, they are policy-makers!

[@ClarksonsinUSA]

For example...I don't think you see the big picture,the battle for dominance in smart phones globally....Is not between Apple and Samsung,its between Google,Apple,and to a much less degree Micro Soft... All are American tech titans...

[@DanielleTinkov]

And yes I know Europe is not a nation, but it is easier to talk of it as one, considering how it's filled with rich white nations that were once empires.

[@AdstarAPAD]

Well in the future they may develop a consumer class if the benefits of investment reach the workers. but the reason why Stratfor selected these nations was because of their low wage populations. So the investors will find these nations attractive because they don't have a consumer class. I doubt that any consumer calls will develop soon. Most of the benefits of investment go to a very small elite within a nation and the foreign investors.

[@kimchi_taco]

16 post-china? I'm skeptical to his foresee. If they will be next China, why have they been so poor since WW2? China has excuse due to communism. However, 16 post-china has no excuse. They didn't do it. How will they do it? IT and more advanced robot encourages US manufacture again. Car factory is coming back to US. In the same sense, I expect that 16 post-china has no chance to develop heavy industry. China, Korea, Japan, German's manufactures will keep price competition by automation.

[@be4unvme]

+Dongseong Hwang Car factory coming back to the US? where they at?

[@AdstarAPAD]

The elites of Haiti have been the most corrupt in the Caribbean the level of education has been the lowest. You need a certain level of education to allow for a surge in manufacturing. The Dominican Republic should keep well clear of any entanglement with Haiti They have a far better culture, education level and a lower level of corruption. Maybe they could import some workers for Haiti to fill certain position after the appropriate assessment of their individual abilities.

[@etbadaboum]

Whatever, I bet big on Indonesia.

[@DanielleTinkov]

As for the african countries, due to the investments that are going to be poured(and welcomed) in them, we will see the first developed African nations since the middle ages. I count that as a good, not a bad thing. Once upon a time both Europe and the US were poor third world nations filled with sweatshops and starving people. Our parents suffered through that period and now we can enjoy the benefits. Denying that to any other nation is nothing short of racist.

[@UAGR323]

Aren't too many medians

[@mariusbleek]

Uh, the people at StratFor are not policy makers. The United States government is. StratFor aren't even advisors. Indonesia could well be the next China, albeit at a smaller scale. Low-cost manufacturing comes in cycles. I expect the ASEAN countries in general to benefit from China's manufacturing decline, although it will take another generation or more before the cycle fully runs its course.

[@ClarksonsinUSA]

No completely,reduce labor...As the industrial revolution reduced the amount of hours to produce products....

[@cnordegren]

Its 2023 and Friedman got Mexico right for the exact reasons of this video. The chinese plague just accelerated deglobalization.

[@Mr112198476]

Mexico has higher gdp per capita than china

[@budisoemantri2303]

Not now

[@UAGR323]

Japan is not an aggressive country, but it will not sit idle while other countries (namely China) threaten their sovereignty and the sovereignty of others. China should learn to respect other countries boundaries, until then, militarization is the best way to go. The Chinese don't understand diplomacy so that's Japan's best bet.

[@e8iMm7KE999]

What about 3D printing. Will it not make cheap labor obsolete?

[@AdstarAPAD]

Where is Japan being aggressive?

[@hisredrighthand]

Look mate, you obvious saw a couple of charts and picked the one were Mexico did best. That's understandable, but when you make an absolute statement, like "Mexiko is the n-th largest economy on [sic!] the world" you might want to find out what PPP is and why is should not be applied in such a case. Or put different: I salute Mexico for having lowpriced barbers, taxis and restaurants. But that doesn't change the fact that Italy produces goods worth $ 2200 bn per year and Mexico only $ 1150 bn.

[@ClarksonsinUSA]

2 finish..HERE THE PARTS FOR A $500 IPHONE ARE MADE $61 JAPAN It doesn't innovate as much as the U.S., but its tech prowess means a lot of high-end manufacturing value stays there $7 CHINA Often more of an assembly line for other nation's wares, work here accounts for only 3.6% of an iPhone's production cost $48

[@apocalypznow]

These tiny under-developed countries on their list, have something China lacks that gives them the competitive edge - super cheap labour, even greater poverty, weak governments, weak financial institutions, even weaker labour organization, zero ability to manipulate currency - that make putting factories there more easily extensions of western industry. This is simply the west shopping for the next site to exploit for resources and labour because it can't bring industry home due to its out-of-control debt. As for China, it should've done what it is doing now a decade ago - attempt to spur a healthy domestic consumption rather than try to get on the bullet-train to expanding it's economy by climbing on the foreign agenda and becoming export-centric, far too "efficiently" - a word Friedman often uses to describe it. There are enough people there and now currently enough industry to make it possible, just as the United States was once pretty much completely self-reliant. However, it will require highly oppressive measures over its minority population especially if the West gets involved subversively to derail this under the guise of "human rights".

[@apocalypznow]

+Mista man The savings argument (point 2) is less and less valid as time goes by - the newer generations are far more consumption driven. You can see that already with the huge mobile cell and computing market in China. The underpinnings of the rest of your argument has to do with inflation, but the stats in China don't bear this out - and even if you are correct - that inflationary pressure was due to rising wages so it anulls the apprehension to spend. Only recently has China eased mortgage rules and lowered interest rates - I believe it would be that which held back home purchases... but the government was probably caught in a bind because it benefited from foreign investment due to higher interest rates. I also do not think the middle class has peaked - that's the tail wagging the dog - there is still a vast labour force in rural areas which could become a new middle class if foreign or domestic demand would stimulate it. Trade indeed has benefited China but a rapacious American foreign policy has always threatened an honest and straight-forward mutual benefit from it, it has and always will be asymmetrical.

[@LinhHLe]

Carlos Choy in order to have a strong domestic market, democracy and rule of law a must

[@Urvakhsha]

China has interests and it is investing heavily in all those 16 countries. They are not stupid or blind.

[@RejectedGlobe]

Peru? Looks like they don't know about the corruption going on there. Colombia is better off as they have better policies and it's more geographically gifted

[@ClarksonsinUSA]

:) you made me smile...They have no creativity,they do what has been done before....When one can not create and innovate,its like trying to win a foot race with 2 feet in 2 buckets...

[@AlternateArtisan]

china doesnt mind outsourcing some of it's most polluting industries. Infact it must do so before enviromental degradation causes catastrophic social problems. Notice that china is now buying ore instead of mining it themselves. its a small price to pay for progress.

[@ClarksonsinUSA]

The peasants will revolt in China,the historical pattern is clear...

[@AlternateArtisan]

ClarksonsinUSA revolting over what? the opportunity to get jobs? Peasants will be moved into cities when there isn't enough manpower to run the factories.

[@ClarksonsinUSA]

Loss of jobs,to lower cost nations...

[@AlternateArtisan]

ClarksonsinUSA Thats why china has SOEs which can run at a loss for extended periods of time. As for jobs moving away, that will take decades, Currently no nation has the infrastructure to take all that manufacturing. India is the closest candidate and they are vastly underequiped to handle large scale industrialisation due to the sheer inefficiency of their democracy. (just try to build a new seaport there and watch the red tape fly) Other nations like vietnam and mexico are too small to make up for china's productivity and simply don't have the workforce experience to immediately be competative. This will coincide with a shrinking workforce in china which will balance things out, china will move to medium and high end production and a consumption driven economy now that a middle class is beginning to emerge.

[@AlternateArtisan]

ClarksonsinUSA be more worried about a civil war breaking out in the US when the reserve currency status of the US dollar is lost. Right now the only thing that the US produces are weapons, raw materials and financial products. And two of those items most people can live without. Peasant revolts only ever happen in china due to gross incompetance, ie: when china is invaded by foreigners. It took 8 european powers invading china for the Qing to be toppled, and it took a world war for the ROC to be toppled. A sluggish economy will not topple the PRC. remember that these are the same people who were able to keep order during the 1962 famine. and 1989 financial crisis which culminated in Tienanmen square.

[@francoluissotomayor3123]

China, make it or break it

[@Hession0Drasha]

No India?

[@ClarksonsinUSA]

Are you slow?????You posted twice.. :)

[@ClarksonsinUSA]

:).....I will send you a window/video to my world..

[@fjasserik]

hello Nigeria?

[@DanielleTinkov]

And this is yet another proof you know very little about Economics. The richest US state have $69,667 GDP per capita, the poorest $32,967. You say thats double, but this will be missing the whole picture. The federal government is responsible for a lot of services that make the internal economic output irrelevant. You will get similar federal services in any state you are and you can move freely between them. This means that if the richest state is the US, the poorest will be Italy.

[@ClarksonsinUSA]

2 complete.UNSPECIFIED $11 U.S. While America doesn't make much of what goes into the iPhone, it's always better to innovate than to fabricate; just see Apple's profit $30 GERMANY $23 SOUTH KOREA iPhone retail price $500 Parts and assembly -$179 Apple's profit $321 Figures are rounded.

[@xihangyang]

ok nice that you make 16 list, but will all these 16 make it or break it. and wich of these 16 want china to make it. i think most african country because they own china money and most of the infrastructure will be build by the chinese. money for china. vietnam and philippenis since the territorrium dispute with china. china hope they will break on it. but birma is a blackhole for me.

[@ModiFiedIn2014]

positive but not that easy..

[@stacyclarkson6202]

:) my life rocks,yours not so much.....I just wanted to remind you of this,dont be bitter...

[@ClarksonsinUSA]

I love debating the simple one's,Google gives its operating system to the phone makers..Did you know this,why do you think they do this???? Come on you can do this....Google 2012 revenue hits $50 billion.....:) Cant see the forest for the trees,Google is not a charity????And Google does not make any phones,the write software/operating system for most phones,thats where the real money is...I thought Microsoft tough the world that back in the 1990s,some were not paying attention... ;)

[@crankCINEMA]

..................ok

[@UAGR323]

@MrCheater0: You're beating around the bush, wailing helplessly. I still need you to clarify your claim that "Haiti has some of the best human capital in the world", why does it? EVERY country has people with talent and a strong resolve, but why is Haiti such a special case in you're eyes? Cause you're Haitian? Or sympathy just oozed to the top there, or what? There HAS to be an explanation for you're claim. Care to tell me?

[@AdstarAPAD]

LOL yeah i heard it to. Keeeenya No George Ken - ya

[@iamDjExpresso]

Bruh 🇰🇪amen this is great🙏🙏from kenya let this happen

[@evilmickey100]

so much for that whole china is going to rule the world speach

[@UAGR323]

@MrCheater0: Hey you never know that might be possible. But your "Haiti has some of the best human capital in the world", is laughable at best. Give me good reasons why I should even consider that argument. Do they work long hours, take a few breaks, the education level in the workforce, etc... Really, give me something positive to look at. Well something really positive to back up that strong claim you make.

[@stacyclarkson6202]

And you are allowed to be stupid/failure it goes together like green and grass...:)

[@baller84milw]

Keep in mind the populations of the nations you're talking about. Chinese people have some of the highest average IQs in the world. It can't be replaced by the dominican republic or uganda lmfao.

[@ClarksonsinUSA]

How About some simple fact,lets look at the global tech giants,America always leads in areas where the money is...I will use the iphone for example,Time had an interesting article a while back on the subject of where the profits go for the phone...Apple makes a profit $321 per phone,China where it is assembled $7..Why the disparity,anyone can do simply assembly ..Why do the Chinese do this type of work little money is better than none,and this will not change...

[@ESAMMEX]

Nice trolling dude. You don't know anything about me. Lol

[@TheDiasporaMedia]

i know your mom.

[@mrbear3487]

Keep dreaming

[@stacyclarkson6202]

Ahh your you tube account speaks volumes,no proof of a life.... :)

[@AdstarAPAD]

Philippines too corrupt at the top. Indonesia islamic radicalism. Vietnam thumbs up a nation with good prospects. Peru leftist ideology. Mexico thumbs up good location. Laos landlocked dependent on competitors for access to ports. Nicaragua leftist ideology. Dominican republic thumbs up location and culture. Ethiopia internal divisions and dependent on rivals for access to ports. Kenya corruption. Tanzania Infrastructure. Uganda landlocked. Myanmar thumbs up good culture. Sri Lanka thumbs up.

[@ESAMMEX]

Nice trolling dude. You don't know anything about me. Lol