George Monbiot: The Food Chain Could Snap Overnight | Downstream

[@anthonyclegg1511]

Well, that's cheered me up, no end.

[@billybobkingston5604]

I'm off to the pub mate

[@anthonyclegg1511]

@@billybobkingston5604 have a pint for me, i can't, I've got gout.

[@lewa3910]

Truly important discussion

[@stephenbarlow2493]

George has really got it now. I've been trying to warn of this problem for a long time. As the drive for efficiency, profit, etc, gets greater, there has been this shift to the just in time mode, to reduce costs to the minimum. However, it makes the system enormously vulnerable to sudden shocks. You see, if we go back to medieval times, when the majority of people were peasant farmers, and economies were very local, the system was relatively inefficient, but it was massively resilient, and so could withstand shocks like the Black Death, where up to a third of the population died, because the basis of the whole economy and food supply system was fairly local and self-sufficient, with only small trade between regions. In fact, the whole food production system and economies, were not reliant on governments etc, except for one thing I will come to. It was self-organizing, the peasant farmers could carry on growing food without any outside assistance, and the same with the local economy, with craftspeople like blacksmiths, carpenters and the other trades, being able to operate without much outside assistance. In fact government, the aristocracy, was somewhat parasitic on these local economies, not supportive of them, except in one way. That role I mention was basically protecting the peasants and local economies from invasion. That was the only critical role that local economies could not do themselves. Meaning the whole central system could collapse, and people carry on feeding themselves and providing the essentials without assistance. Whereas with modern society, everything relies on long supply chains. Huge amounts of people live in cities, with no ability to support themselves. Farms no longer employ many people and are highly reliant on electricity, other fuel, agrochemicals. Most farmers would not have a clue as to how to farm if all these ancillary supplies they rely on stopped. Any disruption to the global system, which allows these long supply chains to function smoothly, would have a massive knock on effect. In a vicious cycle, if the global supply chain is disrupted, it would rapidly lead to societal upheaval as people struggled to feed themselves or to obtain essentials. Leading to riots, a loss of faith in governments to protect people, which in a long feedback loop would further affect global supply chains, causing more social upheaval, causing greater inefficiency and disruption. Very soon things could get very ugly. Yet most of modern populations rely on these long supply chains, which are reliant on societies working together and global order and agreements, which might start to rapidly breakdown.

[@danw8659]

Agree with you I've been warning people for centuries.

[@filougreendog]

good part of my food is down my allotment. i wish more people would learn to grow a bit of their own food

[@diannedrew6006]

Well said 👏👏👏 I have been encouraging people to grow their own for years now. The war in Ukraine has concentrated minds.

[@alanmajor130]

A lot of us live in flats with no gardens or the space to grow anything. So bully for you.

[@irmaamri6249]

It’s a 7-year waiting list for a lottie here

[@filougreendog]

@@irmaamri6249 i dont know the exact details but i think authorities are required by law to provide sufficient allotments to meet the populations demand. nag them relentlessly!

[@notwhatitwasbefore]

A huge amount of people don't have access to any land to grow food. Allotments are good but there isn't enough of them to make any difference to the nations food supply and thefts from the allotments that do exist are a major problem and thats going to get worse. As if that wasn't all bad enough the people who are most in need of the option aren't people who could use them, it takes physical effort some people are inncappable of and it takes timing to grow crops that isn't option for people who work long hours on low pay or have to commute meaning they just don't have the free time/effort to tend to crops.

[@mariameehan3295]

Like the old saying "Never put all your eggs in the one basket". The irresponsibility of how decentralisation is presently permitted to operate is absolutly foolish and intolerable.

[@blahdelablah]

Did you mean to use the word "centralisation" instead of "decentralisation"?

[@andybray9791]

Highly processed nowadays, like when natural medicine has been seen as farcical by big pharma

[@andybray9791]

@Ryan Davies depends on what

[@Grumpygameviews]

Preppers watching this right now 🤗

[@christinavuyk7875]

This has been getting screamed about since the 70’s really. But hey, it’s all hail Mammon innit and fook everything else... 😬

[@cyrneco]

Hear hear...

[@easytoassemble54321]

Was great hearing George outline the idea of complex systems, and it's effects on the world at large.

[@shinywarm6906]

The book is very persuasive. The scale of the changes needed is vast

[@poerava]

Not really. We current waste between 55-65% of food and have the capacity to lift our production by 50%. A few decent production managers and consumers buying specific amounts at specific times and we can handle twice the worlds population. Happy to chat with anyone who buys into this scare campaign to sell overpriced and cheap plant based food-like products. We have local grass fed beef in Australia which have farms that will be carbon neutral in 2 years. All biodynamic and doesn’t rape the soil like mono cropping. We also have new adaptive multi paddock grazing technology which all farmers will be using within the next 5 years. Also 35% of the world can afford to purchase grass fed beef. It’s a no brainer. Cows. Saving the world. Who would have thought.

[@poerava]

@@btosi No. The 65% should eat standard cheaper beef.

[@blahdelablah]

@@poerava Did you overlook the issues that come from runoff from animal farms? I can give you Australian examples if you're interested.

[@shinywarm6906]

@@poerava Monbiot doesn't say we aren't capable of producing enough food to feed the world - in fact, he says we already do, with some to spare, and production is still increasing. Food waste reduction turns out to be a lot harder than it sounds and only a small proportion of that figure you quote is really recoverable eg a lot is lost through spoiling during long transit journeys and poor weather conditions. But a bigger problem is that the added production is not feeding humans. Instead, a global shift to diets richer in meat is cancelling out productivity gains by diverting an even greater proportion into animal feed. Millions of hectares of agricultural land is also being wasted producing biofuels. Pasture fed beef requires huge areas of land. One study Monbiot quotes looked at what would happen if the US switched its beef production to pasture-fed only. It concluded the US cattle population would have to rise by 30%, and the land area used to feed them would increase by 270%. "Even if the US felled all its forests, drained its wetlands, watered its deserts and annulled its national parks, it would still have to import most of its beef" (the paper is Hayek and Garret 2018, and its available in the internet) All this (and more!) is going to take a lot more than "a few decent production managers and consumers" to sort out.

[@chomskysarmy3965]

A real artistic flair with how the video ended. Woody Allen style..

[@JugglinJellyTake01]

Add to that the other countries that are shutting down food exports, people being priced out of buying food and lack of regulation on speculation on food. Speculation was a key driver of food prices that led to the Arab Spring but with climate impacts of flooding, heat waves, drought, fires and food prices we are potentially heading a nasty period. In the climate casino people quickly move from the energy table to the food table.

[@shinywarm6906]

Speculation and inventions like futures markets have been disastrous. And more and more state grain stores are being privatised. Private owners use them not to feed people in times of food shortage, but as part of their speculation games, witholding or mis-informing others as to their current stocks in order to profit. Once again, common goods essential to life have been perverted by the money system

[@geovanniali6060]

Dr John Campbell mentioned this lately.

[@scaramanga5316]

This is why I have a substantial vegetable garden

[@clumsytriangle2436]

Only now that the western developed countries are realising the reality of possible starvation, lack of energy etc. , it is becoming an issue and probably, change will be forthcoming in how we live and who we allow to lead us. Yet, developing countries have been dealing with these issues for generations as they have been trying to recover from western colonisation and theft of their natural resources, forcing them to live in poverty. It is frightening yes, but it is about time the west is taken off its high horse to deal with real survival problems rather than the ridiculous 'first world' problems that cause mild discomfort and inconvenience.

[@peacehope7365]

This is actually really scary 😰

[@tokerfuels1]

I'm slowly coming to the realisation we are a species determined to commit suicide

[@tokerfuels1]

@Jay Dee Your mum

[@matthewthomas7824]

Why everyone needs food storage.

[@cian5069]

will you ever invite Max Ajl on?

[@saragonmcenany6229]

Novara don’t like talking about Brexit

[@ATHLDN]

A hungry man is an angry man

[@gerrypowell2748]

Here in France everywhere you look wheat in abundance🇫🇷🇫🇷🇫🇷

[@DJ_Dopamine]

Yes, here in France (where I also live) we are net producers of food generally. Also net producers of energy. It's the UK _qui est dans la merde_ !

[@halooffire9003]

One Benefit of large areas of arable land and low population density.

[@adrien5834]

@@halooffire9003 And foresight. Maintaining European food security is the purpose of the much maligned CAP. Sure, it costs money. But it means we won't have a famine.

[@shinywarm6906]

the problem is not insufficient food. There is enough for all of humanity and more. The problem is the global shift to meat consumption. What should be surplus grain for humans consumption is being fed to animals. Appearence can be deceptive too. France is the leading cattle breeding centre of Europe, and its agriculture is the second largest contributer to greenhouse gas production. The intensification of French agriculture has resulted in farmers are facing increasing water shortages - a friend of mine is currently selling his family farm in NW France for this very reason - and a chronic failure to meet EU water quality standards.

[@danielbrett247]

George is an interesting and creative thinker but I'm willing to bet that none of the macro economic effects he predicts will ever come to pass and most of the recommendations he makes would be catastrophic if enacted.

[@rhonamilne1341]

So the answer to pollution is to become a vegan? Really! How about a campaign to stop pollution of our world? If you really want to get a bit more perspective on the truth about the industrialisation of farming, which was on display down by that now not beautiful river, read Vandana Shive. She’s written many books, done many u-tube videos, and has been a tireless campaigner for the poor farmers of India. An avid activist for the environment and for justice for the poor, helping to prevent the patenting of seeds by the likes of Bill Gates.

[@DaProHobbit]

No, you're being very reductive. A big part of our the solution is to transform to a plant-based food system and rewild farmland. This requires people to go vegan, but political action is obviously needed too. Being vegan is a embodied political boycott, it's not just the consumerist health fad that capitalists frame it as.

[@homeeconomics4419]

Strategic grain reserves hold years of supplies. They're concentrated in a few countries but there's A LOT to go around . Vertically integrated "just in time" grain corporations are not like banks. They're dealing in real things, not credit. This is a weak analysis. Sounds like the Silent Spring of our times. If you want to have a more authoritative piece on food systems read vacliv smil. The complex systems stuff is great, but not sure Monbiot has the capacity or training to comprehend any of it

[@minnie5301]

I don't fully comprehend it but just because there's a lot to go round doesn't mean it will go round. Look at the money, plenty to go round but it doesn't does it

[@christinavuyk7875]

Is Egypt still growing and selling cotton does anyone know? 🤔

[@karate4348]

We are colonised and colonising, groomed and forced and educated to think loss profit rush clocks and cocks thinking more welcome and share needed more I need help instead of I'll rule you thinking needed and more wisdom and priority to respond

[@elizabethh257]

Read farmer, scientist, agronomist Dale Strickler's books on soil and drought instead. George does not understand the incredible complexity of ecosystems all of which REQUIRE animals to be healthy. Soy fields are usually ecological disasters that ill many animals and insects.. George has read? Not enough and George has never been a farmer or rancher. Has he even grown any food? He has enough good information to make all of his bad information dangerous..

[@RS-np8cu]

The bottom line is that there are far too many people on this planet.

[@georgeomole14]

You completely missed the point, the problem is that only 4 companies hold the production of all your grain based food. So if they want to break or they go out of business your supply chain for food is gonna be fucked, regardless of population number

[@NosyFella]

Utter right wing bullshit. Resources are not being allocated effectively because the world is governed by the profit motive.

[@naomisherred166]

@@georgeomole14 plus there is enough food to feed the world- it's just not distributed fairly. Also we are actually in world population decline anyway...

[@andybray9791]

Adoption not ivf is the solution

[@graemecreegan6749]

Hahaha instant starvation 🤣🤣🤣

[@blahdelablah]

Do you understand why reliance on just-in-time delivery systems for food is risky?

[@graemecreegan6749]

@@blahdelablah whatever the inherent risk in that arrangement is, it is not ‘instant starvation’ 😁 What that phrase is, is decent click bait culled from alarmist hyperbole. Even after the several weeks it would take to consume all the food on shelves and in cupboards now, we could still forage and eat grass like they do in communist countries. Humans can survive for weeks without any food but (perhaps) only days without water. As all primary school children know 🤣

[@blahdelablah]

@@graemecreegan6749 You're getting hung up on semantics. Do you recognise that mass starvation even within a month would be a tragedy? If so, why do you care about whether it's "instant" or not.

[@graemecreegan6749]

@@blahdelablah starvation within a month would be a tragedy because all the big fat people would be the ones who survived 😞

[@blahdelablah]

@@graemecreegan6749 Oh, so you don't like fat people then?

[@nUmBskulLL]

George is an annoyance at this point. Idk why as I want to agree with him, but he just seems like a doomsday type person. And he's annoyingly preachy. Also I don't know what it is but when he talks I want him to stop talking 🤣🤣

[@nUmBskulLL]

@@meh3247 like I said. I want to agree with him. So I give him a chance, and he annoys me 😅. I guess it's my fault for having an opinion on his stuff that isn't blind agreement

[@DrWrapperband]

Perhaps Novara will look at Bitcoin in a different light after this and investigate properly distributed & decentralised systems.

[@JimMoorby]

First they need to start understanding basic economics before they start looking into bitcoin etc 🤣

[@TheQeltar]

Bitcoin is shite.

[@LKeet6]

@@JimMoorby what don't tney understand about economics? because, from where i sit, michael is decent (he's a presenter,) aaron is good, and then thay have experts on when it's needed. feels like your issue is more to do with not agreeing with them rather than their "understanding..."

[@LKeet6]

ironic you would raise bitcoin under a video about ecological issues...

[@michaelrch]

Bitcoin. Where the emissions from a single transaction dwarfs all your other emissions for a year! Great plan.