Get Ready For "Much Larger Swings To The Downside" | Adam Kobeissi

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The headline economic data gives a comforting sense the economy is strong.
The media headlines tell us the consumer is "resilient"
But if you ask most Americans, they'll tell you they're struggling.
Last year, a Forbes Advisor survey revealed that nearly 70% of respondents either identified as living paycheck to paycheck (40%) or-even more concerning-reported that their income doesn’t even cover their standard expenses (29%).
So why is there such a big disconnect here?
For context, we're fortunate to talk today with Adam Kobeissi, publisher of the popular capital markets report, The Kobeissi Letter.
While Adam remains guardedly bullish in the near term, he thinks market risks are mounting and that investors need to prepare for "much larger swings to the downside" as the year progresses.
Follow Adam at www.thekobeissiletter.com/
Or on Twitter at @kobeissiletter
#bullmarket #marketcorrection #jobs
_____________________________________________
Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Solicitor.
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[@captkeebz]

small correction: congress can only spend YOUR money, or more accurately, your future

[@erniekeller1093]

Congress can only spend its money, not mine. Tax money isn't spent because taxes are where money goes to die.

[@tactileslut]

Suggest that it's far enough into the future and the current voters will be persuaded that it doesn't apply to them or anyone they know. Evil.

[@jakec.4356]

No! They’ll spend your money, then make you their slave and your children and their children’s children their slaves !!!!!!!!

[@balsinghgill9000]

Adam, can you start placing chapters into your interviews please. Love to listen to your interviews but sometimes struggle to find an hour plus to do so. Placing chapters would help me pick out relevant topics that I'm interested in. Thank you.

[@MoM-do7js]

Did exactly that walk, no phone, just the dog, clear the head 🍃🌷 Great show Adam

[@stephenmcloughlin1965]

Great show. The bond market will force the change.

[@SkellyGamingCreates]

Loved this, thank you both.

[@thach0x0]

Adam always asks the next question that helps the audience!

[@johnelliott672]

Fed forever looking backwards. Recession delayed due to Yellen & fed supplying liquidity. Dollar will wreck havoc globally

[@BPoweredLove]

37:30 I've watched every FOMC meeting. I've read and re-read every single word in the FOMC transcriptions and I still have not heard Jerome ever say "three rate cuts" in 2024. The MEDIA said that and everyone is just running with it. This is the weirdest thing I have ever seen in my life regarding this topic. It's bizarre. Jerome never, ever said "three rate cuts" ever.

[@Michaeldotcom33]

They are referring to the dot plot

[@justasmackevicius2940]

Jerome only does what market expects, so what he's saying is irrelevant. His goal is not to upset the markets.

[@BPoweredLove]

@@justasmackevicius2940 I only partially agree. I think I know the point you're making, but I would say that Jay only does what the toppity-top elites want/need to advance higher up as the pendulum swings and the 99.9% pile in as their exit liquidity and then the opposite when it swings the other way.

[@BPoweredLove]

@@Michaeldotcom33 I'm not sure what that means, but I have heard no fewer than 40 different econ people say "Jerome said 3 cuts in 2024" and he said no such thing. They said "he SAID" not "dot plot shows" etc.

[@shanghaiffgg]

Here we go, Adam spreading FUD again. All to sell financial products via “free” assessments

[@petergozinya6122]

Great interview. Thank you Adam(s).

[@insomniactravels6185]

Buy when the mkt goes up, sell when the mkt goes down. Got it. 🙂

[@douglash.8862]

I'm Buying THIS "Dip" ( with last couple of Months, Div's ) and continuing to, HOLD for MORE,.. Dividends and Compounding ! The Economy has been Flooded with, YOUR Tax Dollars, earnings seem Good, Charts ( Up Trend ) are, Good so,.. WHAT's,.. NOT to, like !

[@mattanderson6672]

Thank you both!! Brilliant discussion, loved listening to all the good points Thank you gentlemen

[@neilsmith4732]

Great interview Adam. I follow Adam’s X feed and retweet regularly as his team’s work is amazing. Thanks again Adam for another quality guest.

[@user-dy3hz9yf8h]

Great guest!

[@BatmanBoss]

Thanks guys great show

[@billmiller3914]

Re-read all of James Ricards books! This is playing out just as he laid out for us.

[@BPoweredLove]

*Rickards, for anyone who wants to make sure they have the right economist/author.

[@edwardkierklo9757]

Find Rickard very enjoyable and bought some of his books. He purveys porn doom more than actionable ideas. You can have valid observations and experience and still not have it coalesce. Not knocking him but it is difficult to find any guru.

[@BPoweredLove]

@@edwardkierklo9757 Jim says lots of valuable things. But just like any other perma-bear, he doesn't factor in cycles. Or... he's just zoomed out on a 100-year outlook at a time or something - in that case, he can still be "right". Perma-bulls re also a problem; they never factor in significant downturns. But they overall have a bit more success in "being right", since things generally do go "up and to the right" in the US. Also, you mean "doom porn" not "porn doom" LOL! I knew what you mean though.

[@tehachapicollector3329]

Great Listen, thanks for what you do

[@MichaelHarrington17]

I think it's easy to overthink Fed think. Back in the days of Arthur Burns nobody bothered to listen to the Fed chair. With fiat money the Fed has become the elephant in the room and by 1978 everybody was hanging on Henry Kaufman and Al Wojnilower's analysis of Fed speak. But we live in a universe of uncertainty and Jay Powell lives in that universe too. Basically he needs to pivot with the probabilities of contingencies and his Fed speak reveals that. If the credit markets strengthen, it's "higher for longer;" if credit markets weaken, it's "rate cuts are coming!" The idea is to keep the markets orderly under every contingency.

[@cvrart]

Personally, I'm convinced that another financial crisis is inevitable. CRE and BNPL are ticking time bombs, never mind government debt. If we don't seem to see the risk of it occurring, it's probably very well hidden. Hiding risk is where the financial industry is the best at innovating, and they've done a.bang up job this time around.

[@lorilacour7816]

He is a sharp, intelligent guest

[@detectiveofmoneypolitics]

Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still watching this very informative content cheers Frank

[@4000angels]

Excellent interview as always. Thank you, Adam.

[@billadama]

Oil spiking, gold breaking out, yield curve inverted, inflation bottoming, unemployment bottoming, record credit card and auto loan delinquencies, record debt to GDP ratio, sky high equity PE multiples. Just a subset of these would be alarming, but all of them? Then the soothsayers tell us that historically when the stock market goes up it tends to go up further. Ok, but inverted yield curves historically lead to recessions. So which version of "this time is different" are we to believe?

[@tagsoneveryting]

Wartime fiscal spending can mask a multiple of problems, but only for so long. I think by mid 2025 the picture won't be the same in the equity markets. There's no long term substitute for actual organic economic growth and productivity.

[@jeffsurfanderson]

If supposedly that the governments work for its citizens in the citizens want deflation then Jerome Powell needs to raise interest rates but unfortunately that would crush the government but because the government is so corrupt and is fiscally irresponsible they need to be pushed back against a little put back in its place

[@wmc9722]

Adam, Perhaps, already mentioned: I never heard the quote the way you said it. As I recall it is, "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" not insolvent. This oft-cited quote, or versions of it, is attributed to famous economist John Maynard Keynes. The message here is that no one is bigger than the market, and no matter how right you think you are about a certain stock or trend, the market doesn't care.

[@MattMatusiak]

Never go short in a money printing environment.

[@broersverband7586]

its the same crap in every video and not a single thing has happend its just guess work and BS

[@williamanderson6384]

What about the effects of 'liquidity or no liquidity'. And how much of GDP growth is from government spending. And how much of ' increasing retail sales' is from inflation?

[@vincentmurphy9252]

Dude if you lower rates you inflate inflation! Lower rates we need a depression to get us out no pain no gain only way out is pain

[@susanalexander4683]

What about people who produce the cocoa? They are probably not benefiting.

[@billmc5457]

Regarding credit card debt, the important stat is the number of people carrying a balance, which is not high.

[@mtanner5168]

Love the show and have been listening for a couple years now. However, the guests feel a bit repetitive lately....Would love to hear more about private credit. Steve Bavaria was great. It would be great to hear more about this sector....

[@drajdew1664]

This dude has only seen easy fed policies in his entire career May be it won't be thr same 😅

[@JC-cf4rs]

Its just amazing to me that Powel looks at everyone going broke because of the 9% (really 40%) inflation, and then he says that prices should be locked in and just keep getting more expensive -just at a slightly slower pace… Obviously credit is stretched to the moon because of unavailability, but JP doesn’t care about that, he just wants the inflation number (rate of increase from here) to look good… He needs to jack rates to 10% and let everything correct back to realistic pricing of goods and services… We need a healthy recession and deflation

[@toinengwyn3935]

An alternative to jacking up rates to double figures is to stop bailing out financial institutions and banks (at least in the immediate future). That will put enough fear in banks that lending even in the financial markets dry up.

[@Resmith18SR]

The U.S. economy is in dire need of a giant enema or recession. Bidenomics and Powell aren't ever going to allow that to happen. They're cratering the Middle and Lower class.

[@rokyericksonroks]

A hard landing in other words. That is what will produce signal for $6T in MM funds of where to go next. A soft landing? Forget about it! Soft landings bring nothing but noise when we need signal.

[@taratong9074]

This was fantastic

[@toinengwyn3935]

Adam K. harps about people and companies being locked in at low rates for the lag effect not manifesting itself sooner. However, layoffs and company bankruptcies are running at high levels. At some point, being locked in at a low rate won’t matter when the income stream is severely reduced or shuttered as costs continue to rise.

[@jeffsurfanderson]

Because we have suffered with such high inflation the target should be zero raise the interest rates to 8%

[@Resmith18SR]

As long as Powell is Fed Chairman 8% will never happen. He can't wait to drop rates as close as back to 0 as possible.

[@mrsterling5306]

He said; Americans are fighting inflation with cc debt! It’s NO fight! People are just continuing to dig themselves into a huge hole!!!

[@jeffsurfanderson]

Adam you forgot to dig under the hood a little bit more about the jobs with this guy and ask him which has more value in the economy a full-time job or a part-time job because the full-time jobs are in the negative and that's all you need to know

[@joycekoch5746]

Can't imagine the S&P being allowed to drop below the important psychological 5000 level. If it does it could usher in a elevator drop.

[@martinithechobit]

Let's go.

[@jeffreyestrada5935]

Is market cap weighted or equal weighted index the better indication of "the market"? Why is this difference not discussed more?

[@konigvonpreuen8065]

Did people not notice that the rate cut talk started before midterms and then they said no rate cuts right after

[@cvrart]

LOL! "We don't want to say mission accomplished"... [ but, really, we want to say mission accomplished ].

[@gussoldtimeradioshows4902]

NASDAQ is up 32% in the last 12 months. A 10% correction is a speed bump at best. By year end there will be an extreme melt up, where the NASDAQ will be up 50% on the year.

[@patticlancy6500]

👍🏻

[@caradelatorre7710]

we need a down turn then the wages will by more equal to cost of living. I read the comments after all videos I watch and a lot of people say they are unwilling to take Lower paying jobs because of inflation.

[@Resmith18SR]

Wages and inflation are both sticky and will keep on rising along with the Stock market. The stock market and Wall Street love high inflation.

[@jakec.4356]

You’ll… “have a Mac’Double” whether you want it or not!!!

[@JSS5391]

👍👍👍

[@trevordowney6425]

"Long term path back to 2% inflation???" AAAAHAHAHAHA!!!! That's the best one I've heard today so far. Thanks guys! Cracked me up.

[@shanghaiffgg]

…. You also have a pivot towards the next revolution. This is what the market does.

[@maxcanthelpit]

Adam: "Powell says I have to stop cutting to get debt under control even if I sacrifice inflation" For what it's worth, I don't believe that's possible. Or, it assumes that interest rates create or reduce inflation. On a monetary level, sure, to an extent, but economically I don't see how it's possible. If you can borrow at 5% and buy a billion cans of beans and sell them at a 10% mark up a year later why wouldn't you do that until the money was exhausted? Ultimately, the Fed balances the interests of government income with those of businesses or investors. If Powell lowers interest rates to reduce debt servicing he is increasing the profits of business which won't return as taxable income thereby forcing more deficits and more debt...so...back to where he started from? Anyway, I believe the randomness of the economy drives the Fed and it's human vanity to believe some "Chairman" is the horse pulling the cart.

[@learninghowtolivelife]

Why would Powell cut before an election (Adam said most probable in September)? Sure, yes, let's get political (sarcasm)

[@StockGenius152]

SPX🚀🚀🚀🌙

[@jeffsurfanderson]

And that fiscal ceiling put forth by the Democrats should be noted so when the s*** does hit the fan they get full blame

[@cvrart]

To so-called "lag effect" is really living up to its name ;-)

[@johnroberts7797]

Did Powell throw a lifeline to banks with his reverse course? What happened to bond prices after?

[@INSANEDOMINANCE]

It is no longer the “goldilocks” economy that it was in 2019, it is now the “wolf in sheep’s clothing”. Higher for longer. Housing prices fall another 30+% 0 rate cuts this year. Key word *debt*

[@andrew8531]

Your former employer Yahoo has the best free charting software. Any idea why they give this all away for free?

[@adam.taggart]

Advertising revenue. Charts & stock quotes generate tons of daily page views. And they can sell the sponsorships on the chart pages for a mint.

[@tactileslut]

FWIW the charts from Webull lack Yahoo!'s 15 minute delay and the free data from Moomoo shows the "L2 trading data" that Webull paywalls.

[@lngtimesurfer]

The cold hard reality is the only way you're going to balance the budget is to tax the Uber wealthy. Guaranteed our government given their allegiance to the donors will try Austerity first, which never works (Greece in recent memory), but there's little left to squeeze the middle and low income classes for anymore without massive social unrest. The reality is it was the rich that benefited the most from the debt increases (Bail outs, tax cuts, wars for defense contractors, PPP etc) and when everyone is on the life boat, the person hoarding all the food ends up with the whole boat attacking them. That will be the inevitable "equalization" and given the unsustainability of the debt is only a matter time for the reckoning

[@tatersquad2000]

imagine thinking the rich will ever pay taxes. they own the system and shield their assets, you'll just be screwing the middle class with tax increases.

[@jeffsurfanderson]

Never mind my last comment he just mentioned it

[@stoneyj1a1]

Great show. He's pretty smart with this stuff and not the typical doom n gloomer

[@tjsmith3741]

It’s important to understand the feds goal is not 2%, it is 2% over time..

[@darwinjina]

and the longer, the greater loss of wage buying power

[@MattMatusiak]

Census Bureau: Americans’ median real income dropped for 3rd straight year.

[@tatersquad2000]

Their goal is to report 2% inflation while it rages above 10% to inflate away the debt and increase their asset values.

[@darwinjina]

@@MattMatusiak Not surprised. Last week, government's BLS article had a negative real wage increase.

[@Michaeldotcom33]

Are those who think inflation won’t go to 2% assuming there won’t be a recession? Yes the current path is not going towards 2% but if there’s a recession this year it is possible. It seems like many are assuming no recession this year.

[@jeffsurfanderson]

Look for me the bottom line is the government needs to be punished for their spending not the citizens so it should be that the interest rate goes up so that we get deflation and you have Financial education like on this channel explaining why we need the high rates and that we need to take our lumps because of what your government has done and then again you voted for them so it's partly your fault too. This needs to happen rates should be at 8 to 10 inflation should be at -4 to 0% Flatout deflation

[@ask_why000]

I identify as an American Poor.

[@eyce9]

NVDA = ZIMBABWE

[@mathiaschoussy8372]

Too late to publish

[@merlinwizard1000]

18th, 18 April 2024

[@tactileslut]

34th, presuming my browser is absolutely up to date.

[@thach0x0]

He does not seem to have a long enough experience for predicting the market .

[@klong9269]

You can have 40 yrs of trading experience and still not predict the market accurately.

[@user-eb3pi4tv9k]

Same old, yawn.

[@johnfkeating]

Omg!!!! Everything is fine!!! 😂. It’s the best economy!!!! The problem is you!!!!!🫣

[@mehditaba6303]

He repeats recent history. Waste of my time.

[@JonHassellProphecy]

Totally agree, only stock im long is DJT! support Trump and make some money!

[@dang6684]

He is a used car salesman

[@user-te6xy7sf6o]

BIDENwokeeconomy. 🏳️‍🌈😳

[@LouisJanYoung]

Great guest!