Gold Is at Inflection Point, Hard Landing Is Coming: These Charts Tell You Everything - Tavi Costa

Michelle Makori, Lead Anchor and Editor-in-Chief at Kitco News, interviews Tavi Costa, Partner and Macro Strategist at Crescat Capital, who says that gold is at a critical inflection point. Costa warns of the coming hard landing and breaks down a number of key charts that reveal the real state of the U.S. economy. Costa also gives his gold price forecast, adding that big hedge funds are about to flock back to the precious metals space.
Follow Michelle Makori on X: @MichelleMakori ( / michellemakori )
Follow Kitco News on X: @KitcoNewsNOW ( / kitconewsnow )
Follow Tavi Costa on X: @TaviCosta ( / tavicosta )
00:00 - Intro
01:41 - Macro Outlook and Hard Landing Prediction
04:57 - The Hard Landing Scenario Explained
06:33 - Central Banks and Gold Allocation
08:36 - Countering Goldman Sachs’ Recession Outlook
19:59 - Gold and Hedge Funds
22:14 - Gold's Inflection Point and Investment Trends
35:07 - Portfolio Allocation
#gold #recession #investing
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[@briannave7326]

I’m a farmer and I lived through the seventies. Machinery prices skyrocketed, you could buy a new tractor and use it a year or two and it was worth more than you paid for it. Corn and soybeans also went up a lot.

[@notgunnadoit7461]

I just sold a farm that I invested in infrastructure in and sold it for an 8x not to mention the tractors and implements sold with it for more then I paid, and at the same time I built an underground utility business and sold that for way more especially all the trucks and heavy equipment. For example I had purchased one of the small dump trucks for around $50k brand new with 0% interest and sold that for $80k with the business. Even all my tools and tool trailer sold for the same price or more.

[@HelenSurina-mv8ot]

❤

[@BharatKulkarniusa]

Brilliant interview. Fantastic guest content. Worth watching!!!

[@alvinsmith4288]

Tavi Costa ain't no joke. Michelle, thank you!!

[@denixd.7238]

Not only the Brazilian but also the Russian stock market has historically risen exponentially along with the super cycle in commodities, since, as Tavi correctly noted, both countries benefit from rising commodity prices. Like for example it was from 2001 to 2008

[@regularcustomer8285]

I could use some BACK then right now. Friday morning reports are rough

[@vioreliachim5646]

Yet another masterpiece from Michelle! Congratulations!

[@bradleyjordan5365]

Brown nose.

[@mark-204]

The FED is holding up this house of cards economy which will fall apart around March or April of next year.

[@whiterabbit3439]

Great interview! Tavi is very coherent with a depth of understanding.. objective reporting.

[@rafaelmelitonrodriguezmigl7509]

It’s prudent to wait for higher highs and higher lows in gold.

[@DjmMik]

Another excellent interview. Thanks Michelle!!

[@edwardredlich5470]

Great guest. Thank you very much.

[@toaajose4086]

Best argument for gold i have watched for sometime. Very well laid out points.

[@Fearzero]

Gee strange how the fact gold is negative 40 percent vs m2 money supply since 2009 isn't mentioned...

[@Hotmail727]

I wanna hold hold these guys accountable, will see in 3 months if there is hard landing and gold price increase..

[@cacaoperesoso732]

Thank you Michelle, continue with your services

[@BlueWaterSTAX]

Tavi is a legend. Thanks for having him on Kitco Michelle 👍

[@josephm3775]

Tavi is a liar and a scammer

[@user-se2zg5he4q]

A legend? Never heard of him.

[@josephm3775]

He is a paid promoter@@user-se2zg5he4q

[@fringedweller221]

Another fantastic informative interview with a substantive knowledgeable guest. Keep up the great work Michelle. You are fast becoming my favorite KZbin channel.

[@joeysocks5718]

Tavi is a very smart man. Great content ✌🏼

[@andrewtelfer6107]

Tavi Costa is a go-to for insights ... great discussion ... should be a must view for all.

[@tedmorgan4487]

Commodities to equity chart. Lovin' it mate. Contrarian view awesome!

[@ParisianThinker]

Interesting interview with charts that point to a hard landing.

[@diegolunahisano7368]

Excellent presentation of Tavi Costa !

[@slyguybrad]

Wow. Thank you for an awesome interview. Next few months will be very interesting. Make sure you have Tavi back for a follow up interview.

[@David-yn7wl]

I think he’s 100% right and I am 70% invested in PHYS PSLV CEF and miners

[@BufordPusser582]

Great interview. Thanks!

[@nickjacques6087]

Tavi, a man of common sense and reason. It is basic fundamental observation. I have no idea why others can't see this. But then, that is why we get bubbles I guess. Thank you for sharing this analysis.

[@marceycarsey5535]

Thank you Tavi!

[@CONTACTLIGHTTOMMY]

Down to $350 in assets under management. Can we all agree that it's been a rough quarter?

[@danforthrhodes8960]

Another great video. Tavi was grounded, well prepared, and articulated very well. Michelle also asked great questions. Two suggestions: I would have liked to hear Tavi's opinion about physical Gold versus Gold ETFs. I really think people need to be reminded that there's a big difference between the two. Also there was no mention of Bitcoin versus Gold. I believe interest in BTC has been one of the reasons Gold hasn't broken $2,100 yet.

[@regularcustomer8285]

Friday AM, I'm at my inflection trading 🖥 " bench.. " This thing has got to be liquidated to the public.

[@Greektall]

In the 70s oil price tripled and population was booming. This is by no means the 70s, this is the late 20s and depending on their reaction on the coming deflationary collapse it could become the 40s. A credit driven economy dies when credit depletes.

[@user-lb8bg6kj9m]

The "credit" 💳 will come out of the printing press.

[@Greektall]

@@user-lb8bg6kj9m once the printing press goes brrr I go all in commodities and risk on. For now I am cautious

[@escarchafrio2798]

On 7/24/2022, there were two consecutive quarters of negative growth. But, then they refined a”Recession” in the lead up to the mid-term elections. You honestly can’t say “we haven’t had that…” (forecast recession) when the definition has been manipulated. Furthermore, billions of dollars worth of defense spending is propping this economy up, which also skews the overall picture.

[@fog8969]

Everything the Leftist government says is a lie.

[@johnnyb3126]

Great video 👍🥇

[@Greektall]

Also historically the best time to buy gold is when Central Banks sell it. I own a lot but only as an insurance policy

[@bretgreen5314]

One of the best interviews I have seen in a long time. Thank you.

[@longvalnicolas5991]

Une très bonne entrevue Michelle !. You are one of the best interviewer in the financial/economic fields again respect !

[@jessiemartinfostersr.6067]

THE MORE GOLD THEY OWN , THE MORE GOLD WILL BE MANIPULATED LIKE IT IS NOW ! ! !

[@dogbox2290]

If the US hits an economic wall…Only the owner of gold should be allowed to rehypothecate in the form of a smart contract. If this does not happen that economic wall is going to devalue many many individuals.

[@BradleyMcDonald]

Such intelligent questions by Michelle and such great analysis by Tevi.

[@kimmurphy1683]

Michelle always does such a wonderful job. She really helps the viewers understanding.

[@white364]

This a very good interview.

[@GrantOKane]

Great reporting, Michelle. Always love your inquiries. You're one of my favourites. Great guests... a credit to you. 👍🏼

[@gabrieles8281]

Thank you for your advice. They are as precious as precious metals 😊

[@randyramey6549]

I very enlightening interview by the use of all the various charts presented by Mr. Costa. I do believe commodities will see large price gains in the next 5-10 year time frame.

[@blainecole5452]

@0:56 "Tavi is a partner and macro strategist at Crescat Capital, which has over $350 of assets under management."

[@dave9547]

I laughed at that 😂 $350?? Holy moly!

[@CONTACTLIGHTTOMMY]

I'm still laughing 10 minutes later. The funny thing is, the guest didn't correct her, so maybe she was right.

[@sensenisok]

Wow. Great guest

[@bertotools]

Nice one.❤

[@DPitty]

Very informative gentleman I share his views.

[@the100percentstraightguy]

there's something happening I've never seen in 30 years here in Europe and that's wages going down by over 20% and companies that are rotating older staff with cheaper staff as the hope for AI will allow them to use less qualified staff. Not every company is doing it because there's a lot of scams in the AI software business and they want to see cases before they let their staff go and so far, not a single case has proven itself if you make the difference between automation/AI/AGI

[@joeruda6586]

Yes I believe it was around 2000 the s&p took the gold fund out of s&pyeah they always had some gold in the s&p but since 2001 or 2 or whenever it was it's no more gold stock in the s&p

[@graceamsterdam5404]

🙏🏼 for the interview. You know, I can féél the tension build up: politics, wars, fed talking more and doing less, cbdc pushed in europe, bitcoin topics, gold unmoving in these volatile times, the deafening silence if the banks, campaign time for US…

[@lorilacour7816]

Go Tavi go!!!

[@masteryoda9044]

Why is gold always at the inflection point and never seems to cross it ?

[@marc_rib]

Now we have a probable stagflationary scenario!

[@warrensimpson3276]

LOL...

[@Fearzero]

When it goes up they just mine more. Massive find in Uganda 2 years ago. More gold there than currently exists.

[@Hasan-jf7by]

Because it is being manipulated.

[@1Oldgreenbus]

Great guest

[@Jonnys00007]

this was a killer interview !!!!! I loved this dudes charts . Hes totally bang on . Commoditeis to equity ratios matter .!!!! moonshot soon for commodities like oil gold silver and copper

[@robertchew8167]

Agree with everything dude !!

[@Fearzero]

Gold is highly manipulated and is down 40 percent vs m2 money supply since 2009.

[@douglasthompson9482]

Unfortunately many people and even the government are not really concerned. The problems are real and here. Interest rates, transition of work force to the next generation, etc. Housing in my area are starting to be listed….sellers are slowing down. Cycle of 3-8 years at least.

[@THORMENTAZO]

cutest and cleverest host ever

[@CONTACTLIGHTTOMMY]

I laughed my arsch off when she said $350 worth of assets under management. He has about the same assets under management...that I have currently lost in my sofa cushions.

[@s4nder86]

Hey, it's better than $3.50.

[@CONTACTLIGHTTOMMY]

​@@s4nder86I'm thinking if they get that low, they might return assets to the investors, close down the fund.

[@jeffcauhape6880]

Has the Fed ever been right about calling a "soft landing"? Serious question.

[@marc_rib]

The soft landing (and hard landing) calls are always increased because the timing of theme.

[@barrymcconathy3028]

Very informative, thank you

[@billylam2448]

i watch Kitco for Michelle Makori 😍😍😍😂😂😂

[@jeffsurfanderson]

This last chart that he shows says it all. Now would be the time to buy those commodities for the fact that the world is turning that way to renewable energy sources and clean burning fuels. Metals are the way to go. The upside of the next cycle will be higher than the previous three I guarantee it

[@imstrng]

$350 worth of assets under management. We all started small at some point.

[@CONTACTLIGHTTOMMY]

The biggest portfolio begins with the first $350.

[@chrish9155]

This guy is so sharp to explain things.

[@donpietro9040]

Top thx !

[@bambyyy7039]

If the US gov bonds struggle to be sold with the expected influx next year, wouldn't the FED step back in with QE to keep yields down?

[@costa2150]

It's a good question

[@Mark-pb8kj]

this is above my intelligence.

[@danigomb]

im amused by all of yours spectacular and catastrophic predictions

[@heinzgassner1057]

350 dollars AUM 😂😂😂. Sweet mistake. I hope there are some zeros missing !

[@aubreyrobin]

I hold tokenized gold, use it in Defi, earn yield from it rather than just fidgeting it.

[@martintremblay2581]

Great guess.

[@yassma977]

MM ❤

[@davodeewhy]

...and the recent selling of USD, and stronger currencies in commodity countries

[@insurewithmercy]

Michelle where have you been. We missed you terribly 😢

[@john-ze7eu]

Yeah, yeah

[@STROBdotNET]

Great interview! I would like to hear Mr. Costa view on Bitcoin vs Gold and Silver. Bitcoin is certainly not ready to become digital gold and there is the Damocles sword from the regulator above it that is preventing it from happening.

[@Fearzero]

It's not just ready, it's happening around the world. The United States are going to be the last country to adopt it though. Next up Argentina.

[@darrenstewart1568]

AWESOME INSIGHT FROM TAVI COSTA!

[@Phl3xable]

0:55 "which as over 350 dollars of assets" lol

[@user-se2zg5he4q]

If there is a hard landing no one will sell. The financial system is broken and manipulated. Swap gold for ever depreciating paper money? Who would do that?

[@michaelzimmerman9221]

$10,000 gold, $500.00 silver? Come on baby?

[@deathcultstudios]

Which has over $350 worth of assets under management?? WHALE!!!

[@deathcultstudios]

Makori goes full Darth Vader wardrobe

[@CONTACTLIGHTTOMMY]

Obviously you don't want to be on the other side of the market when he makes a move.

[@user-eh8rx2dw5e]

Did she say 350 dollars of assets under management? 😂

[@joostonline5146]

4:55 Notice he doesnt anwsers the question....he only goes on to talk about Gold this Gold that....amazing he doesnt even notices it himself

[@rudeawakening3833]

During the introduction - did she say $350.00 worth of investments ? 😅 I Love Michelle and this guest- great content and valuable insights … Thanks .

[@samsoda2300]

LFG!!!

[@Earej]

0:55 wow $350 of assets

[@mattatuckmanful]

Its the Lag Effect!!!!!!

[@Donnald.]

I blame the Fed for global economic crisis, they can print credit as long as someone will borrow it into existence, but production cannot be printed. Right or wrong?

[@Defisher]

I'll suggest you find a mentor or someone with experience to guide you especially in this recession

[@GBRplank]

This guy has over $350 under management, wow. I will now consider myself quite the big time investor!! 0:51

[@johnhemphill1938]

Absolute outstanding Michelle; outstanding

[@markbrzezinski8889]

"has over 350 dollars in assets under management". I should hope so!

[@Scorch428]

If everyones buying gold, why is the price not going crazy? Also, how do you even buy gold? I thought it was all kept in fort knox or something...

[@dogbox2290]

Love your show Michelle. ☀️🌴I take a contrarian view. Gold. Meh. The age of exponentials will exaggerate US freedom and exceptionalism. Deflation yes. Dollar printing and weaponisation will encourage other hard asset accumulation. Raoul ✨and Saylor✨ speak eloquently around this. Argentina to promote excellence. Ending a long celebration of mediocrity. Argentina has a huge economy. The world has found a Beacon of light 🎉I hope. Great show Michelle ☀️🌴

[@william1863]

A house divided against itself will not Stand. As Written.

[@stevengr4]

Sweet Crescat has over $350 in Aum. 0:54

[@rockerdude86]

The crash was last year and people are still reading lagging indicators.

[@BatmanWolverine]

$350 of AUM LOL 😮OMG Michele.

[@sliekerstar]

Without mentioning cooked statistics and precious metals price suppression in the discussion reduces one’s credibility and arguments

[@sheldonsnow803]

Did Tavi call her Leslie?

[@godmodecrypto]

gold as an investment 😂🤣 good one

[@notgunnadoit7461]

I once had $49 under asset management but then I needed gas ?

[@lamentate07]

The miners are in the bin. If gold goes up, it will be due to a sharp demand for physical coins and bars.