Experts slugfest: Our ridiculously early 2025 Oscar predictions, updated

[@ReadingMartin]

We are so back

[@warrenjohns3194]

god i miss yall. please never stop talking about movies

[@Jamal3.87]

Ridley Scott and Gladiator 2? I’m always skeptical about Scott’s chances at the Oscars. The last real ground swell for Ridley Scott was for The Martian back in 2015 and he wasn’t nominated for Best Director.

[@HeelPower200]

Ridley Scott is still a strong and iconic name. It will be impossible to ignore. But it may end up being a flop.

[@mollypercocet1718]

Christopher’s picks are… interesting …

[@chrisjrosen]

How so?

[@Swiftieun1corn]

I watch dune part 2 last week. I saw it three times in theater. It’s so good. I hope Denis gets nominated.

[@joelanthonylim6792]

I'm down in delulu town with Chris for Gladiator II getting nominated and Scott not only getting nominated but winning an overdue Oscar lmao

[@blondie666]

My takeaway from putting in my first batch of predictions was the tension between very high end festival/international options and populist moneymaking IPs/sequels, with a relative vacuum of more traditional contenders (especially if the likes of Blitz/Conclave can't meet expectations).

[@leightonbate7516]

Amy Adams role strikes me based on the synopsis to be a true original like Emma last year with her overdue status roughlythe same as Leo's 9 yrs ago so this far out I have Amy finally winning but Jolie has never won a Leading Oscar so they could pull a Jessica Lange with her and Baptiste could follow in Halle Berry's footsteps but she isn't a name like Jolie and Adams,Apparently Blitz is more an ensemble film.

[@oldschoolabrahamhicks2742]

Yay! Missed Oscar talk

[@serinamak]

30 minutes of previews!? It's only about 15 where I am in Canada

[@dahomey2001]

I think y’all are underestimating Selena Emilia Perez will be Netflix Priority, not mentioning Danielle could go lead and Aunjanue’s part is small

[@AnastasiaNorkaert]

This is that time of the year again!

[@purekinema]

The Apprentice can't get distribution in part because a Trump supporter owns the production company and has a veto on distribution. They need to buy out the distribution company to distribute the movie. If it does come out this year, I think it's in.

[@friendlypup5650]

Happy Canada Day guys 🇨🇦

[@Jamal3.87]

Don’t worry about Horizon. I’m sure it’ll be on MAX by the end of August.

[@timgriffin3368]

Is Long Days Journey Into Night going to be Langes Second Blue Sky??? 😜 🤪 😜

[@chrisjrosen]

That would be hilarious and fitting.

[@haroldandmod]

Why is Queer not on gold derby

[@chrisjrosen]

Queer doesn't yet have US distribution or a 2024 release date. Once it does, it will get added.

[@haroldandmod]

@@chrisjrosen I see..

[@IndieGoPop]

A Complete Unknown wrapped June 18th

[@fernaoveloso6988]

Why are we dodging Angelina Jolie… Like, she’s getting nominated

[@haroldandmod]

She’s not on gold derby yet for some reason

[@chrisjrosen]

@@haroldandmod She's not there because Maria doesn't have an official release date or distribution plan for this year just yet. Once it does, she'll be added and we'd likely add her to our picks.

[@DavidN369]

"Wicked" Part 1 is not this year’s WSS OR "Color Purple"; every adolescent girl and theatre queen will be there opening day, and thereafter. Predestined.

[@rymhrnblkc]

everybody is underestimating nightbitch just because it has a weird plot. searchlight gave it the poor things release model and marielle heller has been able to get actors nominated before. i think it's happening.

[@chrisjrosen]

I love the Poor Things comp and we've seen Searchlight able to take a "weird" movie very far previously (see also The Shape of Water).

[@HeelPower200]

The title is just so bad. Best Actress goes to : "Night Bitch!!!" , followed by applause Couldn't they come up with some artsy title lol

[@stardustboy94]

She’s winning the Oscar unless they give it to some biopic actress.

[@ssshar2176]

There is no way Joker 2 is going to repeat a billion dollars. The first time was just riding the coattails of the height of the Comic Book Movie train. If it makes 500 million that will be generous. Challengers will dominate the comedy/musical Golden Globe Categories and then die away. I just rewatched tick tick boom this past weekend. Andrew Garfield is still amazing!!

[@chrisjrosen]

tick, tick boom is really excellent. In fact, I'd argue it's maybe the best Netflix awards movie ever including The Irishman and Marriage Story (the only other two I'd probably seriously consider as top-tier masterpieces).

[@camporosso]

LOL you sound totally clueless

[@dalnim4294]

I'm going to screen shot this so I remember to come back to it. It will make way more than 500 million lol.

[@ssshar2176]

@@dalnim4294feel free. The movie is a musical sequel.

[@SoulKnightKing]

I love that Joyce Aretha Franklin's Austin Butler and Bikeriders

[@snowballthepro2926]

I'm betting that Sonic 3 is getting in for some Oscars. You laugh, but I ponder.

[@FrakkinToasterLuvva]

How ironic you're writing off Jeremy Strong, after the movie premiered and he got a ton of praise and Oscar predictions. It seems you're convinced the movie is not coming out, but there have been reports that the deal is all but made and Tom Ortenberg's Briarcliff is about to become the distributor, even paying off Dan Snyder's 5 million so he gets off everyone's backs. And Washington Post also reported unofficially that Jeremy's agency has been directly reaching out to Snyder to resolve this... so you know sure as hell they're intending to mount an Oscar campaign for him.

[@chrisjrosen]

If The Apprentice gets distribution and a release date this year, I do think Strong would be its best chance for a nomination and as an avowed fan, I would love to see it. I'm just not sure if the movie is gonna come out this year.

[@HumbleGrinder]

Joyce my fav😍

[@joaocosta5193]

after watching Challengers my first thought was 'joyce is gonna hate this'

[@fatihalbayrak1653]

fall of kinds of kindness. Right decision.

[@samtan4729]

Any hope for Ghost light?

[@martinpascoe5904]

Could the Great Glenn Close get in?

[@nafischowdhury7375]

lol at gladiator 2 being included in these predictions.

[@chrisjrosen]

I've been burned many times by Ridley, but hope springs eternal!

[@ktom5262]

These two not even mentioning The Brutalist here makes these Oscars predictions really irrelevant.

[@goldderby]

This video was recorded long before The Brutalist had a distribution company in the U.S. They could not have known it would even be eligible at that point.

[@ktom5262]

@@goldderby I know. And that's why these predictions from back then are irrelevant.

[@rxre7922]

Emilia Perez is gonna clear!!!!! and theres no way wicked is getting nominated for best picture... the actors in it are not it, feel like its gonna be one of those movies that everyone expects to be good but is gonna be trash

[@mattyrse]

Gladiator 2 and Wicked look so bad and no interesting at all. Hope they fade away

[@nafischowdhury7375]

same. both are gonna be disasters.

[@chrisjrosen]

@@nafischowdhury7375 what this video presupposes is... what if they're not? I don't think Wicked is a wild pick, particularly when this time last year everyone had The Color Purple in multiple spots and Wicked the musical >>> The Color Purple the musical. It could be bad and hack, but if it's not there's no reason it wouldn't make the final 10. I'm choosing to believe on July 3 that it'll be good. Reserve the right to change my opinion!

[@KaiOpaka]

Obviously you're not following all the theater kids (young and not) losing it over that Wicked trailer. It looks fantastic so I don't know what you're seeing. Then there's Ariana's fans. Both of the former are going to want their families and friends to go. It's gonna be massive. At minimum, plenty of below the line nominations. I'm expecting it to have a chance to crack the Best Picture lineup. I don't expect it to win unless it surprises given that it's a part one.

[@purekinema]

There isn't even a trailer for Gladiator 2, how does it "look bad" 😂

[@mattyrse]

@@purekinema Photos

[@fes123456]

The Piano Lesson did not have great Broadway reviews and was not a well liked play so don’t trust Chris on that take

[@DavidN369]

Actually, the original "Piano Lesson" on Broadway was VERY well recieved, and the TV movie with Alfre Woodard is excellent. The most recent revival failed, due to theater economics, but it's coming back, at roughly the same time the movie drops. Never bet against August Wilson.

[@ktom5262]

Challengers is rubbish. A boring movie about 3 unlikeable and uninteresting characters.

[@joaocosta5193]

bad take

[@DavidN369]

​@@joaocosta5193word.

[@alejandromangieri1495]

Wicked is NOT being nominated for best picture

[@gaymoviebuff1986]

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