Guesstimate - Number of ACs sold in India/year - For job interviews - from CAT 100%iler, IIMA Alumna

[@chhavihere]

Visit my website: www.chhavihere.com for all the resources!

[@harshkarnani799]

Assuming total Population to be 135 Crores and No.of marriages = New + remmariages(post divorce and such sort) Assumptions for New marriages: Age group of 21-27 yrs looks to get married and % of total population of this age group being 15% and out of this age group approx 15% people gets married So new marriages= 135*0.15*0.15*0.5(a marriage is consitute of male and female)=1.4 Crore Remarriages: % of people in 30-55 yrs being 25% and % divorce rate being 1% Remarriages= 135*0.25*0.01*0.5=.17 Crores So total marriages= 1.4+.17 ~ 1.6 Crore marriages If any mistake, please clarify. Thanks

[@chhavihere]

Your initial part is right, after that it is confusing. Why will only 15% people get married out of marriageable age? Also we are asking yearly marriage - not everyone gets married in 1 year.

[@daredevil_491]

@@chhavihere Hey I did it like this can you see if this is correct or not? The population of India is approximately 1.4 billion out of these 30% a living in urban areas and 70% are living in rural areas in rural areas the chances of finding an AC is relatively low so we will assume that people in rural areas do not have an AC there for 1.4 * 30% gives us a value of approximately 400 million out of these 400 million people we will as you that 20% of the population is living in the below poverty line or lower income segment Therefore 400 * .8 gives us roughly 300 million peopleNow since in the India the average family consist of three people therefore the total number of families in India is 300 / 3 which is equal to 100 million household Households can be divided into Lower class middle class and higher class we will assume that Lower class percentage is 40% upper middle class percentage is 30% and the higher class is 30% This means that lower class people are 40 million apartmeter class people are 30 million and the rich are also 30 million the lower class will only have one AC for household whereas the upper middle class will have two AC and rich people will have four AC The total number of ACS will become 40 x 1 + 30 * 2 + 30 * 4= Which gives us 200 million ACSince AC is are quite expensive so they are replaced every 10 years therefore the number of AC is sold per year would be 200 million / 10 which gives us 20 million

[@adityapattanayakvlogs]

Yes mam ; bring some more video on guesstimate ; this one is amazing too . Thanks again .

[@tokiosingh]

Dude where's the elimination factor for the cold areas. Why would a person in Shimla buy an AC?

[@harshshah9006]

U don't need to go this deep I think

[@vanshoberoi907]

@Chhavi Gupta In my Interview, I was cross questioned a lot when I segmented further on the basis of income group like 1:2:4:3 of Upper: Upper Middle: Middle: Lower, I couldn't justify why I took that ratio as a fact, Could you justify that if I'm asked the same in another interview basically how to justify the ratios that you mentioned in the fact sheet be it Rural : Urban= 7:3 or Poor:Middle:Rich etc. ? Thanks for consideration.

[@chhavihere]

Generally you won't need to justify it. You can say like, BPL in India is 20% - so that's a fact. Some things are facts and you've to sound confident in interview to say, this is the approximate ratio for Indian population.

[@varshabhandari5673]

@@chhavihere Hi @chhavi can you please help me with no of weddings per year - i took the average life span of 80 Years and Population 1.25billion then divided population in segments as follows: 0-10yrs---- 10% = 1.25cr of these 0% get married= 0 NIl 10-20-------10% = 1.25cr Of these 1% get married = 125,000 Ignored 20-40-------40% = 35cr 70% get married = 35 cr = 35cr/50* 40-50-------20% = 06cr 30% get married = 6 cr = 6cr/ 35* 50-60-------10% = 1.25cr 1% get married = 125,000 = Ignored 60-80-------10% = 1.25cr 1% get married = 125,000 = ignored * - I have divided 35cr by 50 because they get married once in remaining lifespan of 50 years. Done similarly for 6cr. The total figure further DIVIDED by 2 since to avoid double counting. The final ans i get is in only 50 lacs or so. Please can u or someone tell me where am i going wrong?

[@hustler607]

15 crore weddings per year Assumption : Age group ( above 18 years old and leas than 50 years old)

[@rashmi6222]

Awesome explanation... Plz make a video *"Marketing Concepts" basics* at least for Marketing & Consultant position interview

[@adityapattanayakvlogs]

Thanks alot mam for this video . i was actually searching for some content to learn 'guesstimate' & i got it at the right time . Thanks alot again .

[@batmanashu]

very nicely explained , one of the best videos on guess estimates i found on youtube

[@AbhinavJaiswal-hy1pv]

No of weeding in India 7.5 million thanks a lot greatly explained ❣️

[@curiouslysane123]

Very clear! Thanks

[@YashMohite2412]

Hey, absolutely loved the video! The number of weddings in India every year : 1.82 cr

[@aakanshashrivastav276]

Thanks a lot mam for helping us i am also a cat aspirant and your journey motivate me a lot

[@bhawnachaube8318]

Please let me know if this approach is correct: I took the population at 1300M Then I took half of it to count a marriage once so 650M Then I took the age bracket of 16-55 which has 60% of the population(also including outliers who get married before 18 and after 50) Giving 390M Then I considered that an average person gets married once in the span of 40 years hence 2.5% of 390M which is 9.5M Close to the actual answer of about 10M

[@chhavihere]

Yes that's a great approach! But maybe you should just consider upto age 35-40 Rest looks good! 😊

[@bhawnachaube8318]

@@chhavihere Thanks a lot!

[@manas4562]

Great Explanation, Thanks for that. However, i think you miscalculated the total number of ACs while adding 5.7 and 0.7 which should be 6.4. Cheers! Keep up the good work

[@vaibhavbansal7]

This is brilliantly explained!

[@omkarshinde2798]

To estimate the increase in market of ACs at the end of 10 years, what if we divide population age-wise , suppose say today 200mn people are in the age group 10-20 years. The same will be in the age group 20-30 years after 10 years and a fraction among them will be able to buy AC and that's what is the reason behind market growth right? And so we can estimate growth using this number, can we? Please guide

[@yashbhatt8581]

Great video. Keep up the good work 👍🏻

[@parthasarathyradhakrishnan523]

It's fantastic, Kindly upload more videos...

[@siddhantsoni6449]

Excellent approach :)

[@mayanksingh7814]

Number of weddings in India / year = 15 million(approx)

[@PranoyMajumder_UEE]

I we can also include the Ac's at different shops and Small offices.. Please reply and tell me what is your opinion about it.

[@tusharsethia264]

I have interviews in December, thank god I found your channel sister ❤️

[@chhavihere]

🙂🙂

[@jaideepsingh7955]

i tried the no. of weddings per year in india approach: population: 140 crore say 5% wont marry, rounding it off to 10 crores with 130 crores left: i divide into 3 categories as [0-20, 20-30(marriageable), 30-80] considering the declining average age of humans(upper limit as 80 years) i take 15% for the 20-30 range, 20% 0-20, 60% for 30-80 Is this logic right ? i.e. approx. 20 cr people in 20-30 range out of these let average age of marriage be 25 years. so lets say all will marriages will be at 25 only. So can i divide these 20 cr by 10 because i'm selecting only one year out of 10 years(20-30) ? if i do this i get 2 cr people now with male to female ratio as 5:4, we get females and thus weddings as 0.88 crore or 88,00,000. is this acceptable ? ans. as per internet is 1,00,00,000

[@adityapattanayakvlogs]

Mam you said about the 2 approaches . just confirming once again ; the 2 approaches are top-down or bottom-up ; right ? & you said we can confirm which approach we can follow with our interviewer . So does that mean we'll directly ask him/her about which approach we should follow or just take his/her suggestions after explaining both our approaches ? Kindly clarify this & sorry 4 so many questions . i really want to be clear about it ; so asking . TIA .

[@chhavihere]

Never ask anything directly to the interviewer. Please join my live Q&A session this Saturday 6 PM for all questions :)

[@adityapattanayakvlogs]

@@chhavihere ok mam will surely join that session & ask you all my doubts there

[@red_crusade]

Doesn't this approach take 1 AC per person of population? It should be divided by average family size, right ?

[@chhavihere]

Have done it for number of households only

[@arujbudhraja]

It's actually easy. I got the ACs to be around 36 lakhs (market = 45 lakhs). Regarding the weddings in India per year:- -> Using Top Down approach: 135 cr population. Sex ratio in India is 108 male to 100 females. Or 52% male and 48% female. 48% of 135 cr = 64.8 cr. (65 cr). Now youth population of India is 1/5th. 20% of 65 cr = 13 cr. Now these are females from age of say 15-25. If we assume one gets married at 25+ age, we reach answer / 10 (per age). So 13 cr / 10 = 1.3 cr weddings in India per year. (Actual answer = 10 million / 1 cr.) I hope this qualifies as an answer.

[@chhavihere]

It does. Good attempt :) Only 1 advise. Do not take 52%-48% Remember you can't generally use a calculator in an interview so this will be a very very tough mental math problem.

[@adityapattanayakvlogs]

I have a doubt ; if we consider the females of age 25+ ; then we must take the 52 cr population NAA as you've considered all the youth population (13 Cr) to be of age 15-25 . So they're not eligible for marriage . So we should consider the other part of the population in our problem . Kindly clarify a bit on this .

[@NiteshGupta-jr6ib]

Can you please explain why you divided by 10?

[@chhavihere]

@aditya So here the assumption is everyone gets married at age 25. If we take all women from 20-40 and say they get married once - so divide total # you get by 20 to get yearly marriages.

[@gsingh660]

@@chhavihere If eligible women/men that year are 13 cr,how come only 10 percent of them marry? Is it correct to assume that everyone marries at 25 only?

[@lalitkishor2393]

Please make videos on market forecasting

[@hasmukhganj9408]

Really liked the video. can you make more videos on guesstimates?

[@chhavihere]

I'll try!

[@rashmi6222]

Yes plz

[@debatradas9268]

thank you so much

[@shalinipatel1181]

Hi ..can you please do a guesstimate video on no. Of tennis balls in a Boeing 747 flight

[@rashmi6222]

Plz provide short procedure at least without values. Of your que "Wedding" in the description

[@chhavihere]

See the comments, many people have tried 🙂

[@rohan2609]

In rural I think we should consider villages who have access to electricity and those who don't, we can also consider substitutes as coolers are used more in dry climates.

[@chhavihere]

We can do, time permitting. Before diving into further divisions confirm with your interviewer !

[@rohan2609]

@@chhavihere Thank you.!

[@yuvikayadav8203]

How to form the formula in the second step for different guesstimates?

[@adityapattanayakvlogs]

Mam one question ; how you guessed the population in rural & urban india to be 70% & 30% respectively ? Have you read it somewhere or you have just taken it as an assumption ?

[@chhavihere]

There are few basic facts that one needs to remember. This is the approx urban rural ratio in India

[@arujbudhraja]

Yes now the ratio is 35:65. (Urban:Rural). Plus now rural (Tier 3) carry more distribution of electronics, due to easy accessibility, lower priced items and e-commerce.

[@adityapattanayakvlogs]

@@arujbudhraja ok thanks for the info & yaa the explanation is correct too . After the e-commerce boom in India ; all the tier 3 city residents are able to get all sorts of products at their doorstep 👍 .

[@sudarshanadivarekar5417]

How no of ac sold per year=total no of current ac/life of ac ? I am not getting this explaination

[@chhavihere]

If there are total 10 AC and life of each AC is 1 year. Then every year 10 will be the demand + growth. If life is 2 years, every year 5 ACs will need replacement, that will be the demand

[@SiddharthSingh-bj7ed]

Can u help with no. Of ac sold in lucknow?

[@GDPI]

Thanks

[@ritvikgupta2726]

Do you not think it should also be considered on seasonal factor as well

[@chhavihere]

You won't remove ACs in winter na

[@sanyammalhan]

How did you get the number of households as per the calculations you are pretty far off from the correct number?

[@aman-gy5nn]

no. of ac's: 1.7 cr per year

[@arshmaheshwari7802]

guesstimate number of taxis on a airport......pls help with this question

[@chhavihere]

Try it out. Tell me how you approach

[@rashmi6222]

Amazing video... So in coming live session.. I will ask: *No. Of helmets sold in India* and on *Healthcare analysis"*

[@rashmi6222]

You need to make detailed guesstimate video with calculation... No. Of weeding in india etc... We need at least 4-5 series

[@chhavihere]

Yes, I've 2 Will make more

[@Nmastebharat.]

Good..!

[@existentialgaming3097]

Mam any tip for solving LRDI quickly?

[@chhavihere]

For LRDI prep: kzbin.info/www/bejne/gn7GnmadgM10sK8 Try to solve easy questions in 8 mins, and as you understand more difficult ones try to solve them in 8-10 mins too, by repeat practice

[@Abhinav_Kohli]

Why we did population/4 and 5?

[@chhavihere]

To calculate number of households

[@Abhinav_Kohli]

@@chhavihere ok thanx

[@PrateekMunjal]

How to calculate commercial data?

[@chhavihere]

Which commercial data?

[@PrateekMunjal]

@@chhavihere no. Of AC's sold in commercial market. Like you calculated the domestic use ones. What about used for commercial purposes? Like in hospital, malls etc

[@goddessvibes08]

Can you clarify how to calculate "growth"?

[@chhavihere]

Approx number based of GDP or inflation growth. I've taken 10% generally

[@goddessvibes08]

@@chhavihere How did ou get .3 fpr middle class? can you show the math

[@chhavihere]

These are all estimated guessed numbers, that you've to confirm with the interviewer

[@SujeetPathakHere]

@@chhavihere hi, this should be 10% of total market size i.e. 5.9 cr right? You have taken 10% of replacements each year i.e. 59 lac...pl let me know if I am missing here anything

[@jayantahuja1986]

@@SujeetPathakHere good job, u r correct! keep it up

[@kritikakumari8061]

Ma'am, please make a video on "Estimate the number of A4 size paper sheets used in India per day"

[@dhruv3560]

8 lakhs wedding per year

[@yobro6108]

Thank you for the amazing video For the question No of marriages : Indian Population: 135 Cr Assuming the population between 20-45 be 40% out of which 30-45 may account for negligible in terms of marriage So taking 25--30 as 25% so 33.75 Cr Population Gender ratio be M: F 5:4 so no of females = 15 Cr so assuming 80% of this 12Cr

[@chhavihere]

You've to calculate per year!

[@yobro6108]

Ma'am can you please next vidro on number of buildings / household in india...and I will work on this problem from scratch once going through your video again 🙂

[@chhavihere]

I'll try to do that

[@yobro6108]

@@chhavihere thank you so much ..from cat to career ...I am glad that I subscribed your channel !!!! Since my cat prep days

[@chhavihere]

Thankyou 🙂 Do share it around 🙂

[@shubhambathwal8670]

Let me talk about the problem ..... Naah let me first brush my hair. nice explanation though :-)

[@dhruv3560]

45000?

[@vikrantkumar6640]

18cr wedding/yr