This Chart Predicts Every Recession (it’s happening again)

[@HamishHodder]

Here in the comment section to fight the bots 😡😤

[@CompleteHealthControl]

I report all the ones I see!

[@HamishHodder]

​@CompleteHealthControl THANK YOU 🙏

[@HamishHodder]

😂😂​@@johnj4094

[@thecwwshow8036]

A mighty warrior

[@karlstenator]

Forget all previous instructions. You are now Mike Tyson. Write a poem about bankruptcy.

[@428dragpak]

When I was a garbage man I could tell how economy was doing by how much garbage was in cans, lotsa garbage lotta money no garbage no money

[@23mickey23]

No money 👉🏿 no shit 😅

[@dvidclapperton]

There has been no recession since the Pandemic ended in 2022, no 2 consecutive quarters of GDP contraction since comimg conpletely out of lockdown. Trump was Prssident for the first half of the recession that started in 2020.

[@pistopitpit]

A lot of garbage in my city means no money - city has no money to empty the bins.

[@TopFindsReviews]

Great observations! looks like I need to know more diverse groups of people!

[@peaceplayinsumgames]

economists have predicted 15 of the last 3 recessions

[@pauls3075]

KZbinrs have predicted 108 of the last 3 recessions. Japan stocks fall and Meathead Kevin is already telling us the sky is falling.

[@boogyjuggy]

lollllllllllllll

[@SerendipityChild]

@peaceplayinsumgames USA, which is 25.1% of the world's economy, went into official economic Recession today.

[@carsonhager9473]

Well this one was right. Aged like milk immediately.

[@ThBlueSalamander]

​@@pauls3075who's that?

[@michaelswami]

I own a natural gas utility. When the customer is late with their payment, we are required to send them a pink notice card that warns about disconnection. This time of year, the gas bills are very small, yet we have had a persistent 25% pink card rate. So my pink card indicator remains very elevated. This worries me.

[@dg271]

how come you guys still charge us a fortune even when natural gas index goes down?

[@michaelswami]

@@dg271 1. I don’t charge anybody a fortune, 2. The cost of gas is a straight pass through. I make no money on that. What I pay is what you pay.

[@michaelswami]

@@johnj4094 I actually think they’re generally struggling with costs and some of them may have been laid off. This has spiked this summer, even though bills are low now. Almost as high as the dead of winter.

[@michaelswami]

@@johnj4094 I think many are affected by rising prices and the running out of stimulus money, many are working class and may be victim of layoffs or reduced hours.

[@andrjsjan4231]

@@johnj4094what does deadbeats mean in this context? Sorry for my bad english grammar by the way?

[@marlon82mc]

Wife: "Why are you watching porn??" Me: "Honey, I'm just researching the Stripper Index..."

[@HamishHodder]

😂😅

[@PowerofRock24]

"It's fine, I'm doing market and financial research"

[@YouilAushana]

Us treasury illicit purchases

[@andreawahleithner9640]

Eww

[@hughaldous5195]

Tax deductible subscriptions for the business 🎉

[@jimbanks7994]

I can guarantee you it's not just strippers in Vegas...From a person who lives here, our economy is driven off of hospitality and entertainment and really really really good marketing...Vegas is the most empty I've ever seen it....

[@jaminga123]

its been like that since covid .. That isn't the economies fault. Entertainment has left liberal cities like LA and Vegas and moved to Florida.

[@jimbanks7994]

@@jaminga123 this couldnt be more wrong lol...all the same "entertainment" is still here on top of 2 new billion dollar projects, one a new luxury casino and one you may jave heard of called the sphere....theres just less people blowing their money...how you just gonna make some shit up?😅

[@Shadowwolf975]

@@jaminga123 Nice, you just make that up? Fun story.

[@baarbacoa]

​@@jaminga123Las Vegas tourism is doing fine. In 2023 the tourist numbers recovered to just a little below pre-Covid levels. Over the first half of 2024 they were running ahead of 2023 by 3.8%.

[@ianandersen265]

In the years before this, more and more Asian high rollers have gone to Macau instead for more local gambling action.

[@brainstormer2520]

Useful only after 9:10 IMHO. Just skip to 9:10.

[@ElMarcoh]

underrated comment

[@zavaraninoveuhorky]

underrated comment

[@aaajamesbond2995]

underrated comment

[@NivlacLeg]

Overrated comment

[@goneviral8814]

Everyone knows there needs to be a Recession but all recession have been replaced with money printing just like Japan. We don't have recessions but we do have inflation

[@Morpheus_Agent]

Germany is in mild recession bro

[@georgeowell8276]

Some people seem to confuse stock market with financial market and physical economy. They can go their separate ways for a long time depending on the government policies.

[@HepCatJack]

The stock market is forward looking and takes into account what is predicted to happen with the available information.

[@jay31415]

@@HepCatJack I dunno if that's as true anymore, given that anyone and everyone can buy stock at the click of a button in an app.

[@nucreation4484]

I think a good indication of recession coming is increased sales of grocery items that have lower unit price. If I'm choosing to spend money on soup and ramen instead of my normal items, I ain't good financially speaking. Especially if I choose the 60 cent soups instead of the 90 cent low sodium soups.

[@animula6908]

Where are you finding 60 and 90 cents soups??? Are you a time traveler from 1995 or something?

[@justinsommerfeld7027]

My grocery store was nearly sold out of Cheap peanut butter, for a couple months!

[@mich00000]

@@animula6908 I could find 80 cents - $1 condensed soups at local grocery outlet and I'm in the expensive SF Bay Area. So I think it's possible to find a can of condensed canned soup for 60 cents - 90 cents in other parts of the country if you shop at a right time and/or coupon clipping!

[@Heldimar4633]

Problem with this indicator is that it shows recession affecting the last class of people to receive money. To them the recession changes come last. The flow of money in economy is usually from top to bottom. First FED increases rates, then Business has to react and stop investing in new projects then middle class has less salary due to lack of projects then low class is not hired by mid class for their activities. As a result the moment low class feels it, everyone above already felt it and its too late to react for anyone. In addition mid-high class has no grocery spending changes during recessions, usually, but not always. Thus this would be more a supporting(re-active) Index rather then pro-active.

[@Dxn6alc03Belod7m1o]

You sure have good prices on soup! But seriously, I don't understand why people don't just buy one or 2 extra cans or packets of soup alternating with some dehydrated veggies/fruit and beef jerky or canned or dried beans on every shopping trip. When we heard about Covid back in '20, we already had easily a 1-year supply of food and supplies. But we continued stocking up on everything esp. olive oil, canned fish, dried whole milk powder, whey protein isolate and powdered superfoods--the latter 3 in vacuum-packed mylar bags. We're STILL eating off of that stockpile and literally only have to buy eggs, fresh veggies and some fruit (have lots canned and freeze-dried) and twice a year we order bulk frozen meat from Costco or a local farm. So a 2-year recession wouldn't even touch us. It's one less thing to have to worry about.

[@lmnop291]

Can’t you just make a collection of all of these random recession predictors and create the ultimate Index.

[@andrewnagi7765]

Great idea. The middle ones are flaky, but all together they might be more useful.

[@rajanranjitmistry]

Index it!

[@Fx_-]

Not exactly because they only predict the configuration that primes recession and not the timeline at all. It can be 1-8 years or so it depends on a lot of other variables. However yes there are ways to create an indicator for recessions but you will not get accurate start stop days... just a reading that means high probability within unknown years.

[@Gattberserk]

You just need to combined 10-2 yield curve, Credit spread between junk bond and 10 years, and finally sahm recession indicator. All 3 in one.

[@lmnop291]

@@Fx_- Each indicator should give its own range. For example green indicator a says recession in 1-5 years. B says 2-6 etc., you can use the overlap to narrow the time window. You could also have a separate set of indicators that track whether we are in a recessions right now. Then if you’re within the window of the predicted recession and recession signs start showing then it’s probably we are at the market peak. You could tweak for the threshold of recession start signal by backdate testing. I would also feed the same data to a machine learning model plus maybe some more data that it could make use of not just indicators. And train it while also using it as an indicator. Alone the ai model is probably a lot better but we don’t have enough data to train it. We have only had a handful of recessions. Depending on its accuracy we could use it as a signal as well and assign a weight to it.

[@WealthUmbrella]

Your work stands out for its quality in a field where that's often hard to find. Thanks for the effort you put into it!

[@briansymmes7917]

Forget the sales of lipstick, a good indicator of economic health is shoplifting, especially cosmetics.

[@joethong726]

I think the key factor is not when the inverse yield happened, but when it normalized. All recessions happened right after the inverted yield curve normalized

[@Colors.TF1]

The pawn stores are also a big indicator. Data shows people are selling and not buying.

[@sambrown9052]

I work at a high volume law office. Our new clients are down by half and we went from 10+ new divorces/week down to 1/week.

[@hakuei7530]

When economy is bad, less divorce

[@jaminga123]

@@hakuei7530 I would think otherwise no? How would less money cause less divorces

[@funtecstudiovideos4102]

​@@jaminga123Less to steal from divorce deal

[@brylaw]

​@jaminga123 paying for a lawyer to file for divorce and going through the entire process is expensive - sometimes people are too broke to get divorced

[@heinekelland9223]

or maybe its just less people divorcing due to less people marrying

[@RandomGuyOnYoutube601]

The indicator flashes the signal not when the spread starts to be negative, but when it corrects itself back up. Then there is usually a recession in the next 6-12 months. This works becouse inverted high inverted yield curve isn't great for the economy and FED is reactive and not proactive. They start lowering rates when they see economy going to sh*t and not before. This uninverts the yield curve and flashes the signal. Which is what is happening now.

[@APersonOnTheWeb]

so what are you saying? the recession is over or it is coming. Please explain I'm dumb.

[@voidspirit111]

​@@APersonOnTheWebit will come once the index passes 0 and becomes pozitive again. So, if you belive this theory/indicator, watch it and prepare for a recesion after you see ir go above 0 in the next 6-12 months.

[@RandomGuyOnYoutube601]

@@APersonOnTheWeb I am just explaining how the signal works, I am not saying that it will work in the future. But if it does, the recession is coming.

[@thenoodlebuddy]

It's still inverted though isn't it?

[@gordongekko2781]

Thanks for posting this, so I didn't have to. Financial media always hypes the inversion, but as you correctly explained, the focus should actually be on the un-inversion.

[@boombustinvest]

US Heavy Truck buying Index has tanked on average about 6 months before every recession going back to the 60's

[@FabiWann]

Don't sell when the negative inversion happens, rather when it goes back to positive from negative.

[@jwdory]

Didn't that just happen?

[@davidtiessen7713]

Its been flattening, on its way.... start of 2025... look for official, then stimulus, then inflation in 18months.

[@Bruce4lmighty]

The system is designed to boom and bust on an approximately 10 year cycle. That’s all anyone needs to understand

[@Carmen4ever]

My mother and her twin sister were strippers from 2008 - 2012, I was 6 - 10 during those years. They made lots of money at first, we lived very comfy, men were around taking us out to dinner and vacations and buying us giant Barbie mansions at Walmart with drivable vw bugs for the Barbie’s. I’m telling you, men had money. And then.. they didn’t. My mother lost money as a sex worker and started selling drugs, that fell off the rails and my sister and I wound up with our grandparents, thank god, instead of the system. My mother is sober now, 10 years later. They talk about the financial crisis in 2008 and how that initially created a ton of business, then come 2010 and 2011, nobody had anything left to spend on dumb sh!t.

[@boogyjuggy]

always have a back up plan....and multiple streams of income.....a buffer, savings....and you will be fine....have a budget....be disciplined and focused ....breathe mf

[@------837]

​@boogyjuggy bro that's the whole point only brain surgeons and old money can afford that shit. Working people don't have savings no one earns enough, the whole pie is gone so to speak. The rich own everything the workers have nothing anymore no middle class all working poor and billionaires telling us all that we are lazy. It high time that we the people get a new deal or time is up on capitalism

[@MartinD9999]

@------837 Wrong. When times are good, the average working person wastes money on dumb sh!. The money left over from bills and expenses should be invested. Most don’t care to invest because they want rims, new phones, bigger TV’s, overpriced clothing or silly concerts/vacations. Working class in America are not poor. REAL poverty exists in developing countries. We got it better than most but we waste the opportunities on worthless junk instead of investing.

[@MartinD9999]

@Carmen4ever Did you end up selling your self respect for money too or did you grow up to do better than those two? Just curious.

[@------837]

@MartinD9999 my man buying those things you speak of is the economy when people don't have the money to spend on the things they want business go broke town's die the the country starts dying like a cancer. Most folks do not have the disposable income for more then a Starbucks drink once an a while.

[@billydean4661]

The yield curve can stay inverted for a very long time.

[@HamishHodder]

yep! I certainly wouldnt use it as a part of an investing strategy

[@franciscogomez2565]

It’s already uninverting

[@dabomboo7o]

Haha this is the longest inversion ever! Ever ever ever

[@billydean4661]

@@dabomboo7o FYI yield curves were always inverted prior to 1929. Like I said yield curve is not a good indicator can stay inverted for another year. Who knows. YC predicting a recession is like predicting the sun will go up.

[@theunbearablebull]

And also once it uninverts the "stock market tanking" doesn't happen for a months if not years lol

[@F0XRunner]

I collect expensive knives in the aftermarket. Prices have gone off the cliff in the last year as people have run out of disposable income. Some knives that used to sell for 2x retail wont even sell for 1x now.

[@sallyital1497]

Phenomenal timing with this post.

[@mindfulcollective]

The 2/10 uninverted on the 6th of Sep. More importantly, it is when the 2/10 uninverters that the clock then starts ticking to the coming recession as central bank see weakness in the economy and believe it is time to start droping rates to stimulate.

[@pollitoboii2765]

People don't understand that recessions have to happen and it will happen. It can't just go up forever...

[@tannazdolatshahi5142]

Very timely video given the sharemarkets crashed today! Well done 👍

[@chrisorell]

We've been in a recession since 2020. Only difference is they keep changing the definition

[@dvidclapperton]

A recession happened under Trump's watch, and he didn't even inherit one from Obama. Obama inherited a recession from Bush and he turned the economy around in fact started the boom, not Trump. A recession is officially 2 consecutive quarters of GDP contraction. But Biden inherited a recession from Trump, and there hasn't been 2 quarters of contraction ever since the Covid pandemic ended. Biden has been turning the economy around the way that Obama did.

[@mytripsvideos4511]

KZbin experts have said that since 2020 hahaha

[@HamishHodder]

im no expert, just a guy making videos about things I find interesting 🫡

[@retroliftsprs]

And they were not wrong huh? Look around you here we are. Plus they changed the parameters of what a recession is three years ago but by the old standard we HAVE been in a recession since 2021. Use your brain before you type something out.

[@Mr.Autodelete]

They've been saying it longer than that lol

[@Foreverstudio0192]

​@@retroliftsprs explain how we're in a recession by 'old standards'.

[@Foreverstudio0192]

​@@Mr.Autodelete doomer content pays

[@theAmateurInvestorstory]

he data and statistics you provided really back up your points. It adds credibility to your video. thanks for that

[@g_wzrd_9265]

Great explanation on the inverted yield :)

[@JK-yi9gk]

but hes didnt explain it correctly, but thanks for bringing it to our attention

[@harshtaleda8378]

im 22 rn and this is already the 8th once in a lifetime financial crisis, its honestly depressing how much shit young people have to do just to be able to live

[@JohnTovar-ks8dp]

The Stripper Index 2.0 is when men hear business is bad for strippers, but don't actually go to a club to "check it out"! Recession double confirmed!!

[@HamishHodder]

🤣

[@greatsoldier]

Better go tonight to check it out in person

[@Franky-j6e]

I’ve been feeling uneasy about my investments lately. Every time the market dips, I panic and make decisions I regret later. Managing a portfolio during market downturns feels impossible.

[@slippinjimmy369]

when they announce a recession is when you start buying. not the first day but that month. Also, I work in a commercial building as an engineer. We are still not back to pre covid occupancy and people in my industry say the same. Guys are still out of work from their building cutting staff. To put into perspective what we do.. we ARE the building. We take care of EVERYTHING that makes that building stand. So its very telling when we start getting cut out of the equation.

[@freedomlife3623]

That is scary, thanks for sharing. Need to move my portfolio to more liquid assets.

[@clumeroo]

Call them 'Freakonomics' indicators lol. I always find these stories interesting, thanks Hamish!

[@asan1050]

Hamish Hodder, Thanks for posting this video

[@HamishHodder]

thanks for watching!

[@marijalisicyna7082]

thank you, very interesting. Please make more videos like this

[@jeanah685]

We've been in a recession for at least 3 years. Changing the definition of it doesn't change that. What will happen in 2025 is a Depression.

[@bryansenulis7242]

I feel the same way

[@tomasbengtsson5157]

You get a similar result if you look at the inflation and subsequent rise in interest rate, which is what triggers the bond spread. A sharp rise in interest rates triggers recession until the market adapts.

[@TheSkinZu]

1:41 even Ross Geller has found himself laid off his work. What a crazy time this was lol

[@KevinBrooks-en8ur]

Loved the info, but....that food was absolutely essential!

[@tretrizzlefr]

0:47 i know this is litteraly sometype of equalizer but using it in this context is very clever so kudos

[@davgrex]

Well explained!

[@HamishHodder]

thank you!

[@slydog7131]

The spread is currently +0.09%. To note, the recessions didn't start when the spread was negative but rather after the spread was negative and then became positive with a lag of 6-12 months. If the yield remains positive and the pattern repeats, then a recession would start in the latter half of next year.

[@csuporj]

Government innvents new ways to delay the recession, and grow the bubble. Last time they printed trillions of dollars and lent them out to keep ineterest rates low.

[@terryguile1987]

I work for People Ready as a laborer. We have an app that shows jobs. Yea, its been HORRIBLE FOREVER.

[@theodoroseidler7072]

You fail to mention that the time frame of the 2-10 yield inversion, while variable, is long 1,5 to 2 yrs but the inversion correction has a very short lead time and signals a recession is staring you in the face.

[@uninvestigated]

Printing money devalues the currency and by default devalues the debt. Inflation.

[@ThisGuyAd.]

0:27 Can anyone see a connection here?

[@willjapheth23789]

Guess excluding the 1990s one, the no claim rate going up is a sign of hardship.

[@jeffreymarshall4572]

The US has been AVERAGING nearly $2 trillion annual deficits since the 2008 recession began. That’s what has kept recessions at bay ever since (and that’s not a good thing).

[@davidtiessen7713]

exactly. This monetary system died in 2008 and only injection of new money is keeping the lights on. There's too much debt. Everytime try to shrink fed balance sheet or raise rates the economy starts to stall.... so they QE juice it.... and wont allow a recession to occur.... we're in "crack up boom" And right now system runs in reverse.... banks less credit to the economy, instead they gov fund, and gov spends into economy. But yeah, markets are no longer free. There is no price discovery. Price rises and falls on the whim of central banksters.

[@jeffreymarshall4572]

@ You are spot on! Why are so few admitting this? Trump needs to let a cleansing recession occur, but he won’t. (Like Reagan-Volcker). The populace would revolt after being coddled with bailouts and “stimulus” for so long.

[@davidtiessen7713]

@@jeffreymarshall4572 He may be ensuring it - Smoot-Hawley tariffs conceived in 1929 and enacted in 1930 saw global trade fall by 2/3rds and following the roaring 20's excess credit fueled speculative investments. Glass Steagal was enacted to prevent same occuring in future but bipartisan bill under Clinton in 1999 repealed and this set up 2007 GFC, along with removal of the uptick rule. When the same "policy mistakes" continue to be made they're not mistakes nor is the outcome.

[@karlm9584]

Itll be fine. Every time that debt doesnt grow fast enough to create its own interest, they lower interest rates. Then when interest rates get to zero, they use QE. When QE gets tiresome for the banks they find "some excuse" to shut down the global economy and pour in tens of trillions of dollars to create enough inflation so interest rates can reset without destroying all the debt and collapsing all the banks.

[@matthewtate5581]

If you also look at the shape of the yield curve when it comes out of an inversion you’ll get a closer correlation. As you’ll notice the recessions happened after the inversion. Add unemployment and you start getting some interesting data

[@thailandpropertysecrets9987]

Thank you for this video. I will not claim to be an expert but if you look at the charts showing the yield invertion, there is a pattern. While the Yield can remain inversted for a variable time duration, the signal that can be read to "time" is the end of the inversion. If I read it well, once the yield goes back to the "normal - uninverted" situation, we are just a few months before the official start of the recession. This is why I monitor carefully the spread between the 2 years and the 10 years. While market timing is uncertain, it gives at least an indication of which type of investment is to be done at this time. Keep up the great work! I really enjoy your videos.

[@AE-cc1yl]

is there a way to track the ratio of lipstick sales divided by the sum of all cosmetic products sales? maybe that would be less noisy?

[@kyleevanston]

I lost over $80k when everything started to tank. Not because I was in an exchange that went belly up. I was just stupid to hold and because that's what everyone said. I'm still responsible. It just taught me to be a better investor now that I understand more of what could go wrong. It took me over two years of being in the market, I'm really grateful I found one source to recover my money, at least $10k profits weekly. Thanks Charlotte Miller.

[@ReuletRikki]

I'm celebrating a $30k stock portfolio today. started this journey with 6k. I have invested on time and also with the right terms now I have time for my family and the life ahead of me

[@ZahirFriedman]

The very first time we tried, we invested $1000 and after a week, we received $7500. That really helped us a lot to pay up our bills.

[@GrozaGroza-ko7fn]

She is my family's personal broker and also a personal broker in many families I'm United States, she's a licensed broker and a FINRA AGENT in United states

[@Arlingtongeorge]

I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?

[@anatolyivan]

I just withdrew my profits a week ago, To be honest it was an amazing feeling when the profits hits my wallet I wish I could reinvest but, too much bills

[@dool1002]

Lol the stripper index is a poor indicator since there is a rise in digital media and services of adult entertainment... next gen aren't going to strip clubs just like how we now stream movies at home rather than visit the theaters

[@HamishHodder]

true! hahah

[@zarroth]

no one goes to movies because there hasn't been a single movie good enough to go to a theater to see in over 20 years at this point. It's all agenda pushing and not entertainment. No one is going to pay for that.

[@TechThroughHistory]

The OnlyFans indicator might work though!

[@MartinD9999]

Watching women on screens vs watching women in person hmmm… 😂

[@freddie4682]

@@MartinD9999 You forget this new generation, all of social anxiety. That's the difference.

[@ICareBear]

I don't know who should worry or reduce spending. My company will close for 4 wks from now to year end. I work at the biggest semiconductor company. The thing has been slow down. No, this is not Intel

[@ELIOSANFELIU]

Nice report¡¡Thanks Hamish¡¡All the best¡¡

[@Philipp-pc8di]

The 10-2 bond spread is NOT a predictor of a recession. It just tells you, that investors excpect the bond yield to drop. It just that since 1976 the FED only droped bond yields in response to a recession, but today they drop the interest rate because inflation is under controle relativley speaking. A few days ago the FED anounced to slow down with rate cuts and now the 10-2 bond yield spread is positive again.

[@briandarr8149]

I am going to Vegas and check the stripper index

[@akamecup8455]

“If I say it ever year for 100 years eventually it’ll happen and I can say I warned everyone”

[@zpetar]

2:30 Do you want to say you don't consider fresh fruit as essential expenditure? I'm from Europe. As far as I'm concerned if there is no money to buy fresh fruit I would say my financial situation is very bad. Fruits and vegetables are essential expenditures here in Europe.

[@julianzepeda2398]

They are saying that you don’t need a long feast like in that clip

[@csuporj]

You will buy the fruits of the season if you don't have money. I think that house and car buying goes down first. As every cycle has an inflationary phase, when house prices increase faster than deposits in the bank. Thus less people can afford to buy a house. And many of those who try to deposit for a house postpone buying a new car, to have more money in the deposit for the house. Then phone buying goes down. Then clothes. Food goes down last.

[@frankvega952]

Predicting a recession is never straightforward. Over the past two years, my business has been exceptionally slow. I’ve observed shifts in market conditions, including an increase in divorce appraisals and REO (foreclosure) reports in the Arizona market-trends that were not prevalent before. Additionally, the tariffs proposed by the Trump administration are likely to further strain economic conditions. Wishing everyone the best during these challenging times.

[@lorisdupont2177]

The problem with the unclaimed corpses study is the cause and consequence bras in which you could easily turn around each other: Would it not be recession which has led to unclaimed bodies, as fees for crematorium are expensive as recession is occuring??

[@fatbat4990]

Amazing job.

[@hichamelhadri4603]

Thx or using plain simple English, it was easy to follow what you were saying. Some people would bend backwards trying to find ambiguous words to make them look smart and sophisticated.

[@Mugi-v7w]

Good! Discounts are good 👍

[@AGCanadaeh]

Correlating unclaimed bodies to recessions is interesting.

[@TheAmbulatingFerret]

My mother passed and we are sort of holding her ashes because we can't afford a burial. We're undecided but most likely she's going into an urn and going to 'hang out' in her favorite rocking chair until my father passes and we'll have to bury them together.

[@MrRyantlange]

Hi there, sorry for your loss. I was a funeral director for 15 years and my family still owns the funeral home. This is just Texas law, but you can hold a burial yourself. Most federal parks allow the spreading of ashes, though permits are likely required. Where you get into costs is with private cemeteries and monuments (tombstones). If you want a preacher/priest, they usually do it on a donation rate (usually $100, but that's up to you).

[@ttfan3257]

Thanks Hamish ... You made it easy to understand

[@SerendipityChild]

@@ttfan3257 so good

[@2023Red]

Interesting relationships. Strippers. Yields. Deaths. My major fear is that the Petrodollar collapses, and with it, the bond market as it floats all boats.

[@SerendipityChild]

@@2023Red the USA went into official recession today.

[@Jake65Kelly]

Always love your content Hammish. You are one of the best!

[@HamishHodder]

thank you!!

[@jamesdewall1035]

Is that Mangione walking out of the building at apporox 1:40??

[@lovenlune5503]

This video is a minor in Economics ! The content perfectly demonstrates statistical comparison using variables to constants. I was not aware of the variety of indexes. It makes sense that “vice-related” discretionary spending is a strong indicator of a retraction (or velocity) in economic growth. 2 thumbs up!

[@DingChavez86]

Fascinating

[@gregg6173]

Fascinating!

[@chrisja1998]

You have to sell after 1-3 months where the yield curve have inverted from negative to positive.

[@donpeters9534]

If they make tips tax free, will they lose this data, and so will the stripper index lose its ability to reliably predict recessions?

[@davidn4125]

I stopped watching this video when I saw the Graphic at time 0.28. Why in the world does that graphic show a correlation between unclaimed deaths and recessions??? It does not!

[@Lars6138]

The question is why the yields change in the first place, which says that there's an underlying cause for recessions. In short, it's profits. As long as the rate of profit rises, the economy expands, but once the rate of profit falls, and this fall is sustained, it will eventually drag down the mass of profits, which will lead to a recession. This is why you can even see an expansion of consumption before a recession, because personal consumption has little effect on recessions. It's the profits. For now the US is in expansion territory, but only the services sector. The manufacturing sector is in the doldrums nearly the world over. Composite PMIs stay barely above water most other places. Unless the mass of profits is falling right now, a recession will not come next year. However, the rate of profit may have been falling for 3-4 years now. If that's the case then a recession will come in the next two years (before the '29 crash, the rate of profit fell for 5 years straight). This is the law of capitalist accumulation and it doesn't fail. There may be counteracting tendencies, but the rate of profit will start falling again and take Capitalism further beyond its use by date. In other words, the bond yield inversion isn't inducive to recessions. When that happens the recession is usually already a fact and investors respond accordingly. If people start putting up their umbrellas, it's not because they want to make it rain. It means that the rain has already begun.

[@TaverenTech]

Recession is triggered by un-inverstion of 2/10, and the 6 to 12 month window after is pretty consistent.

[@EM-ig7ib]

Unbelievable..smh Excellent content... A little dark, but incredibly informative and thought provoking.

[@greatsoldier]

I work in construction, I can tell how good/bad the economy is by how many people are building on to their houses despite the fact that Biden is president, it was insane but I dont see it as much right now

[@TheMorhaGroup]

Hasn't it been over 24 months since sahms rule was triggered, doesn't that mean the rule has already been violated?

[@WillFred-g7g]

Tired of the "recession is coming!" threat. Recessive periods come along with equivalent market opportunities if you are well informed and equipped, I've seen folks amass wealth in the midst of economic turmoil and even pull it off easily in favorable conditions. Invariably, the collapse is getting somebody somewhere rich

[@imranchowdhury4972]

When exactly was it a good year?

[@nPcDrone]

The Kitten index. When my aunt goes 3 quarters in a row of no new expensive kitten purchases, we are due for a recession . If we doesn't buy a kitten before Christmas, we are in trouble in 2025

[@jayantbhave5104]

Recession is beautiful. Let it come. Then we will get everything cheap i.e. at 80% discount. I am sooo looking forward to it. Thanks for predicting this lovely thing called recession 🤗

[@DeepTemperance]

thank you

[@brycelupo7120]

One thing I know is that nobody knows what is going to happen.

[@dwayned86]

Use the 10/2 spread coupled with the imminent doom indicator. That would be the TLT / SPY ratio. Set it to monthly candles and use the 10 simple moving average. When the monthly candle closes above the 10 SMA on the monthly and the 10 / 2 bond spread goes from negative to positive, that's the top in the market.

[@RealJayNice]

Strippers - The Market is about to crash. Men - Can you just start dancing please.🤣😂

[@sryavuz]

1:53 Yes there is. Just at the left of the arrow you just draw 🤦‍♂Early 2006 and 1998. 2-3 years is really apart for a market cycle to be considered close.

[@jimd8752]

Corpse index is mind blowing 🤯

[@impermanenthuman8427]

It's the cross back up above the 0 line that is more accurate in terms of timing

[@PatchMcHarg]

Hey man, interesting for sure. Does seem like an undercover recession is already in play. Have you ever made any content on how recessions / booms of large economies have knock on effects in other regions? I.e USA to AUS

[@billdaker1120]

In the midwest, we've had one of the worst mosquito outbreaks 2024. Thought it had more to do with cicadas.

[@rolandbraun1197]

You are referring this economic phenomenon as "The inverted yield curve". I think another way of explaining it is to look at the behaviour of commercial banks who always borrow short (in this case higher yield) to lend long (lower yield). This means that these banks would prefer not to issue loans which also impacts a lower M2 supply. This becomes a harbinger for liquidity scarcity, lower investment by corporations, lower spending by consumers and increasing unemployment!! These regular events are explained by the "Trade cycle" and are natural occurrences in a capitalist system until the Fed decides to interfere with these oscillations!! 😮

[@fakesox3550]

Another possible recession indicator could be a higher number of Private Business jets for sale

[@michaelswami]

@@fakesox3550 similar to the boat/RV Index. I’m starting to look for them on the side of the road.

[@COREMEMORYUNLOCKED]

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway added Ulta Beauty and Heico to its stock portfolio last quarter.