Harris vs. Trump: Nate Silver’s 2024 Election Forecast | Amanpour and Company

[@brucestening7964]

Walter is an interviewer par excellence. Asks short, sharp, crystal clear, penetrating questions of intelligent, knowledgeable interviewees. He’s a ‘must watch’.

[@carminaburana9765]

I hate when people compare politics to games. Badly run governments cost lives.

[@nanszoo3092]

and just open schools, because sick teachers teach really effectively, sick kids don't have any learning loss, and sick parents (or dead ones) have no effect on the students or their education. Really? smh at the ignorance.

[@atmostud39]

What intelligent questions from Walter Isaacson. This is the kind of journalism we've been missing.

[@Cleaner-World]

"Yeah, look, I should probably just stick to poker."

[@Mr512austintexas]

I remember 2016. Republicans, remember what Trump said: "We don't need your votes." Democrats: WORK!!

[@msolomonii9825]

This guy just doesn't give me any real sense he has any grand understanding of things.

[@OMGWTFLOLSMH]

He's selling a book.

[@drewmqn]

He knows a ton about some very narrow topics. His careful framing can come off as... not confidence inspiring. I appreciate the precision of his speech though. Whether his knowledge is generalizable to other areas of life you have to decide for yourself.

[@daciefusjones8128]

he has a bigger fan base than you do.

[@TheWasif]

That’s the feeling I got.

[@Malavander]

That's because anyone who understands statistics and probability has come to grips with how much uncertainty and complexity most systems actually have. When speaking honestly, they tend to speak in very uncertain terms and couch their language in modifiers to convey that there's a wide range of possible outcomes. Lay-people who don't understand statistics and probability often perceive this as incompetence, preferring instead those who speak over-confidently with more certainty than is actually warranted. Our brains are allergic to uncertainty and yearn to hear definitive statements we can file away and never have to think about again. Good rule of thumb - anyone who speaks that way is almost certainly bullshitting.

[@brianhennessey918]

In a recent interview with Ezra Klein of the NYT, Silver self describes himself as a libertarian and would not have voted for Biden in a Biden-Trump matchup. He's lost his way.

[@radhikaschwartz3499]

Lost his way is an nderstatement.

[@1donjuego]

Absolutely right.

[@matthewrobinson2172]

In this context I’m more interested in the quality of his professional judgement than his politics.

[@davidhoover3347]

Who cares as long as his model is good, which it is.

[@trevinbeattie4888]

But would he have voted for Trump, a 3rd-party candidate, or none of the above? And does his position change with the Harris v. Trump race?

[@joanrankin2827]

Electoral college has to go.

[@stevechance150]

God yes! Any system that could allow someone to win with only 22% of the popular vote is a seriously F'd up system.

[@vestcoat]

Absolutely!

[@1donjuego]

Your tune will change. Texas will be blue within 2 decades -- locking in Dems as unbeatable even with a popular vote loss. Then you will write that it must stay.

[@chetisanhart3457]

Until it doesn't benefit your party. I guess you don't actually like the constitution.

[@michaelpuffer7299]

The Constitution has problems like counting slaves as 3/5 a person. Pointing out issues in the Constitution is not a bad thing. That's why amendments exist to fix issues.

[@codymorse2484]

This makes me miss when 538 was good, before ABC started slowly killing it.

[@Mmmyess]

It was never good.

[@Fix_It_Again_Tony]

When Clare left I basically stopped listening.

[@FiendishThingy1965]

ABC didn’t kill 538, Silver did by allowing the averages and forecast model to be deliberately manipulated in the 2022 midtermswith a flood of deeply flawed and biased polls that created the illusion of a “Red Wave” - with the inclusion of these flawed polls, Silver had projected the GOP would pick up 40+ seats in the house. We know how wrong that turned out to be, and thankfully, ABC showed him the door shortly afterwards.

[@fabesey2016]

Are there any good alternatives? I know RCP exists but they just give an unweighted average as far as I know.

[@FiendishThingy1965]

@@fabesey2016 my rule of thumb is no individual poll is worth celebrating or panicking over, and as we have seen, averages can be manipulated. Following trends (not averages, but directions of movement) seems like a safer course of action, although doesn’t give one the artificial comfort and illusory specificity of proclaiming “we’re winning with left handed college educated Pacific Islanders!”

[@rogerlandes6309]

I endured this until 7:23 when Isaacson quoted Elon Musk. Bye!

[@ThunderClapish]

Yeah, he also dropped the ball & lost his professional distance with his Elon biography. Ew.

[@nanshe3x]

Thanks for the warning! Moving on.

[@derek4412]

What's wrong with Elon Musk? Did NPR start telling all the progressives who to dump on again?

[@rogerlandes6309]

@@derek4412 If you don't know what's wrong with Elon Musk then you're either not paying attention or you might be a fascist, too.

[@derek4412]

@@rogerlandes6309 What happens to fascists like me?

[@mariapeagler2667]

Nate Silver predicted Trump had only a 3% chance of being the GOP nominee in 2016. So why is the media still giving him air time? He. Has. No. Idea.

[@momof3sonsatl]

Point well made.

[@richman1661]

Because nbc fired him and he can now do whatever he wants.

[@saxmanphd]

Allan Lichtman is a better predictor of presidential elections.

[@pcbacklash_3261]

I beg to differ. Despite extensive research, I can find NO evidence whatsoever of Lichtman's supposed election predictions prior to 2004. Furthermore, he was wrong about Trump winning the popular vote in 2016 (which he later altered, after the fact, to be about winning the electoral college). The guy's overrated.

[@nicolasolton]

Alan was also recommending that Biden stay in the race, and was ok with the idea of him being the next president for 4 more years.😮

[@dreamcatcher54taurus66]

@@nicolasoltonbased on the keys. He said Kamala would be the best choice if Biden stepped down.

[@pcbacklash_3261]

I've responded to this comment previously, but I see that -- like so many other KZbin comments these days -- it's magically disappeared. My point is that Lichtman is overrated. There is absolutely NO evidence of his supposed presidential prognostications prior to 2004, and he was mistaken about 2016. He predicted Trump would win the popular vote, then changed it to electoral college after he was proven wrong.

[@TIG5574]

​@@nicolasoltonAnd he could've been right.

[@kathys.8686]

After his 2016 debacle, I don't know why anyone would trust Nate Silver's take anymore. With his 13 keys scientific model, Allan Lichtman is a much better forecaster of presidential election outcomes.

[@PaulEgges]

I would hardly call it a debacle. I believe he gave Trump a 30% chance. 30% is not bad odds. Just think of a baseball player who's odds at the plate are .300. There is a pretty good chance he'll get a hit. Trump basically won by less than a 100,000 votes, so it was not even close to a land side. If you factor in FBI’s controversial decision to reopen its investigation into Clinton’s emails 11 days before the election was not accounted for in many of the polls. Some of the polling occurred before this news came out. Allan Lichtman's 2016 book and paper stated that the keys only referred to the popular vote, which Donald Trump lost. So his prediction was wrong. He has since then changed to saying that because of a bias for Democrats his keys now predict the electoral college winner.

[@i.am.navkaur]

AGREED.

[@sirdiealot53]

What debacle? He had Trump like 45% chance to win

[@johncarroll5178]

He was closer than any other pundit, and he did not write Trump off in that race, Lichtman is completely unscientific.

[@tosvus]

@@sirdiealot53 But Trump won, so he was off, obviously. Lichtman did predict it. That said, I still find value in listening to Silver as well. He's a smart guy, like him or not.

[@sherrieludwig508]

I disagree with Nate Silver on the response to the pandemic, largely because he thinks of winning/losing in monetary terms, while I think in terms of lives lost. How many poker games would even a good poker player like to enter if every loss meant a life lost, or a piece of his own body taken? When the "winnings" are not super life, or super health, but simply status quo? Vis a vis. risk taking for the sake of risk taking seems kind of pointless. Risk taking for a REASON, that's a skill to cultivate.

[@kevinjenner9502]

Throughout the pandemic and to this day, the US remains the world leader in Covid deaths.

[@oldbeatpete]

To think, the lessons of the 1920 'Spanish flu' which all the conservatives and libertarians ignored.

[@sammonicuslux]

He is a Libertarian....do they care about anything but money?

[@jhodapp]

@@sammonicusluxyes, also extreme personal autonomy over doing the hard work of figuring out the greater good through cooperation.

[@flootflootful]

I’m a left-leaning immuno compromised person who spent 2020-2021 in a bunker (my tiny apartment) and a mask. But I hear about the persistent absenteeism in schools and reading and math levels which still haven’t recovered, esp in younger students-did we do the kids a disservice? Not to say masks were wrong but in retrospect I don’t know if shutting down schools was a good decision. That is to say, maybe COVID restrictions weren’t all good…idk

[@Developerexpertpro]

Nate Silver’s insight into the Democrats’ improved odds highlights important changes in the political forecast. It’s worth keeping an eye on these trends.

[@seo8938]

This man is not a scholar, does not make evidence-based assertions, and has no place among the smart and powerful people you have on here. Is this some attempt to draw in the "bro" culture where personal opinions and "gut feeling" are seen as equal to a career of dedicated study?

[@adamcarrey9115]

In case you forget the name of his book, just look to the left of him. What a huckster.

[@ghanyathomas9538]

Not impressed at all. He’s no different from Joe Rogan.

[@RyanMichero]

I'm not a fan of Nate Silver's politics or punditry. However, I've gotta say he's smarter than Rogan and does have an empirical/mathematical/programmatic method of working out a *probability* of political victory based on polls. He's not Nostradamus or anything and wouldn't claim to be, and he'd be the first to say nobody can predict the future. He's essentially just computing the odds through a complicated method of evaluating poll data.

[@symptl]

He tends to have the best election forecasting with the available data. You need to separate your political preferences from the model itself. Before anyone brings up 2016, he had a roughly 30% chance of victory for Trump that year. That's almost as high as winning your next round of Rock Paper Scissors. That's not crazy at all from a stats standpoint.

[@allaboutperspective650]

@@symptl Allan Lichtman is way better at forecasting.

[@chetisanhart3457]

Black swan event ? You're about to have a black woman event.

[@nicolasolton]

So Donald lost to Sleepy Joe in 2020, and he will lose to this cackling Kamela woman in 2024? How will his fragile ego handle being such a loser..?😮😢

[@bkbland1626]

Excellent. I can't wait.

[@momof3sonsatl]

@@spanishflea634 Half-black is black. Stop trying to identify people for people. It's not your place. So, yeah, a Black woman event, an Indian woman event, a black-Indian woman event-whatever one we want to use is how she identifies. When you are 50% Irish, 20% Scottish, and 30% German, people say they are white. We do not try to force them to say they are IRISH. And Aisha is a Black name but I have heard white women have the name. People can name their kids from whatever culture. They DO NOT have to be of that culture.

[@ycplum7062]

Some characterize intuition as a subconscious calculation/assessment. This is in contrast to a conscious calculation where you consciously outline the factors and consciously make the calculations.

[@tpiety]

Older people are less interested in big risks.

[@nanszoo3092]

So are most parents of school children I would think. I know I because more risk-adverse when I had children.

[@WilliamBennett-y6g]

A desire to collection poker winnings motivated his transition into political punditry. WTF, PBS?!

[@chuckkottke]

Addressing the concerns which plague us most is key to winning. And Kamala Harris will do that. Promote the positive, negate the negative, and keep that momentum going!! 🇺🇸🗽⚖️💙💙💙💙💙⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

[@carlabritton8949]

Arkansas county girl here refuses to vote Trump male, chauvinist, asshole who thinks he can tell women what they need to do and what is right for women I take care of my own body. Don’t need no man telling me what to do with it.

[@nicolasolton]

Maybe, maybe not. In November we shall find out. 🤷

[@allaboutperspective650]

She will not only win but she will win with a great margin, yes even the Electoral College!

[@user-mm4qw2bt8d]

Kamala means fragrant flower in India. Trump means fart in the United Kingdom. The likeness to reality is uncanny.

[@timothyfreeseha4056]

I think your guest is really interesting - engaging, and wise. I wish Americans could take his advice and observations to heart. Being the player whose pot is the future of American children's well being, we might want to apply these suggestions in selecting candidates who are advocates for what matters to Americans, rather than winning a contest.

[@oldbeatpete]

"I feel entitled" enough to label one of the candidates a real Jerk!

[@thesilkpainter]

This guy clearly has some problems selling his book.🤣🤣

[@Dandelionfleur]

Nah, I get better advice from my cat!

[@weston.weston]

Hmmm, he's become more conservative over time he says. I would like him to explore that further because I don't think that is a wise move.

[@user-oc6dh2yp2w]

Nate Silver should keep his previous job, the one he had before he started pretending to be a political expert.

[@timothyfreeseha4056]

I think there should be more conversation about the people rather than leadership. It is an interesting development that we have a potential felon as a candidate for leadership, and strong support for that candidate! I am not interested so much in a judgement against that leadership as much as i am interested in why this has come about. That any part of the american people believe that these allegations against the former President are made up says a lot, imo. More, that people entertain the idea that only certain people among our representatives are corrupt- can somehow exist in a clean environment, is even more interesting.

[@robertmiller5135]

I just love the way Silver adopts the take a risk strategy with people's lives, especially those of children around covid. I am going to go out on a limb and say that he doesn't have any children and sees no risk in other people losing theirs. Something he and people like him always forget - we didn't know what was going to happen. It was an unknown virus with unknown consequences, and in that world, caution is the best strategy. Silver like Musk proves one thing, you can be talented in one field e.g. poker but that doesn't necessarily transfer to any other walk of life. He comes across, as I imagine all professional poker players to be, like a teenager who never really grew up.

[@Canyon2023]

Great questions!

[@irusev]

Amazing interview. I'll have to now buy this book! Walter is an outstanding interviewer(for rational guests) I am curious how will he do with someone like Trump

[@jeffbendoski8364]

I was more impressed with Walter Isaacson than the poker nerd.

[@roberthaworth8991]

He's squirrelly, and polling is no longer his #1 gig -- sports betting, and statistical analysis to support his poker career, are his things now. Ignore Nate Silver; he's been overtaken by polling pros.

[@nicolasolton]

Squirrely?

[@cocoacrispy7802]

"You can't avoid tough choices sometimes." Pearls of Wisdom. /s

[@emmma326]

What about inviting Allan Lichtman?

[@CashflowMeDaddy]

This guy was calling for Hillary all the way up to Trump win back in 2016.

[@lxb88b]

Polls are irrelevant

[@ingecarothers5309]

When trump was winning they were relevant

[@CodyAvant]

Nate plugging his book by arranging copies as a negatively skewed histogram.

[@masterstl]

Amazing interview

[@caroletomlinson5480]

Without including the Supreme Court on Mr. Silver’s list of declining trust (“…from the Catholic Church to the media”) his political philosophy is non-productive, diverting away from powers that affect our laws, thus worthless. Of course, his interests are not philosophical nor political, only chance.

[@TL-qr3ii]

his characterization of reciprocity is wrong. he's talking about best response functions not reciprocity.

[@UpperDarbyDetailing]

Trump has NOT been attacking Kamala about her race. He attacked her for using her race like a chess piece. Calling herself whatever she felt was most beneficial.

[@JohnSmith-ft4fz]

As a poker player, an 80/20 is a toss up

[@1SkrillexFan]

I love how brat Nate’s book is 🟩

[@nicolasolton]

Brat?

[@randallsmith5631]

The old man vs the young ingenue.

[@ivanmucyongabo9540]

Is this guys job to rationalize our shittiness as a country and individual citizens? The U S. on every level needs to be better. Me included.

[@MrTheLuckyshot]

I really want Hariis to win, but reality is that this is the BEST polling position Trump has ever been in in mid-August. The race has shifted in Harris’s direction lately, but it's a coin flip right now even with things going well for her.

[@pcbacklash_3261]

Actually, it's not. Before Biden dropped out, Trump led him in EVERY swing state polling average. Since then, Harris now leads in Michigan and Wisconsin, is tied with him in Pennsylvania, and steadily closing the gap in Arizona -- once Trump's biggest lead, down from +6.0 to +0.8. The only place Harris' advance appears to have stalled is in Georgia where, after steadily closing the gap, she's now been stuck at Trump +0.6 for a few days. All told, the momentum is most definitely still with Harris, though it does appear to be slowing. But that's probably because there's a dwindling pool of undecided voters.

[@marinasands4319]

All polls trending for a massive collapse of the MAGA party

[@Jessica-kk1cz]

Agreed. Polls are bunk anymore. I get calls and texts all the time, and I just hang up and delete. Who knows which ones are real, if any. I’ll never know because I don’t engage. But I absolutely will be voting. What Silver misses are all the active voters that avoid pollsters nowadays - and what our votes will be.

[@ivanmucyongabo9540]

White Swan events. The diffusion of responbilty is strong.

[@touchozz]

Great interview!

[@Alan-lv9rw]

Harris won’t take questions.

[@amadorcastro5801]

That's right, make electoral forecasting based on gambling strategies. Why is anyone listening to anything Silver has to say after 2016?

[@lidiadiaz8393]

I don’t believe anything this guy says he does not seem authentic

[@jimslancio]

An election forecast could've been given in the first 15 seconds. Before I listen through a 17-minute shaggy dog story, I want some idea of the payoff.

[@DorTur]

Is there any mention of a third party, defections to independent?

[@Personalfinance_10174]

I haven't seen anything in Nate's work that suggests a deep understanding or novel use of probability to warrant cloaking him as if he does have that. Many thousands of people have similar undergrad degrees from very good universities and are also able to reach similar conclusion that also match the common view from publicly available information.

[@jomamacallinyou]

Giving a damn is the biggest weakness of the Democrat party. Dividing over important issues is a serious handicap. This guy has a very narrow view of the world. His view is this popular corporate view. Yes, it is the way to win, but it comes with huge negative results as well. Big business nearly always has options to minimize or even profit from mistakes.

[@stayclean777]

I wonder if Nate ever had to factor **lunacy** into, say, his Poker calculations? Doesn't seem like it.

[@aquamarine99911]

Great questions.

[@JLL83102]

Finally he’s wearing a hat to cover up his hideous balding hairdo

[@sideeye7958]

You add the Assignation of trump to the Democrats? WTF!

[@hareshadnani5054]

Tim Walz like Hubert Humphrey and Walter Mondale is from Minnesota. They became Vice Presidents in 1976 and 1964 when Jupiter in was in a near identical place The Presidents they served under Lyndon Johnson and Jimmy Carter served only for one term . Both Lyndon Johnson and Jimmy Carter were bogged down by foreign policy setbacks in Vietnam and Iran. Jupiter was in near identical transits in 1968 and 1979. Johnson chose not to run in 1968 and Carter ran in 1980 and lost. Both Humphrey and Mondale ran for President and both lost . Kamala Harris will win the elections . Even Alan Lictman has anointed her . She will serve for only one term . Tim Walz will run for President and will lose.

[@Steven-d7w3t]

Nate Silver😂 Brought and paid for by Big Money!!🤔. Shaded polling!!

[@sess5206]

Who is responsible for our strong economy? Biden, that's who.

[@Savagetennis]

If our people think kamala is good, we lost our way a long time ago. I thought obama was bad, then I thought trump was worse, then biden came along and out did everyone as awful. Kamala will be even worse.

[@richardc861]

Well said

[@nanszoo3092]

What exactly is so bad about these people in your opinion? I really am curious.

[@richardc861]

@@nanszoo3092 Obama was all talk and didn’t end any wars, encouraged civil wars in Libya, Syria etc but looks Libya now as a failed state and Assad is still in Syria. Remember you’ve crossed a red line when assad chemical bombed children in Syria, Obama did nothing in the end. I don’t think race relations got better under Obama, may have gotten worse. Sad indictment on Obama that the country wanted and voted in Trump, what does that say about his legacy. Trump what can I say, poor performance when in office, didn’t achieve a lot of goals, bitter exit. Biden just came across as weak, not fit for the role, people pulling the strings behind him and his despise speaks volumes for a sitting president. Harris is similarly weak, poor polling as Vice President, selected rather elected through a primary or by voters. Not a good speaker, will struggle in front of worlds media and against Russia/China. Also don’t like her leftest policies imo.

[@Savagetennis]

@nanszoo3092 ok. First look at how many states have sued biden over covid restrictions. 2. Border.over 15 million into this country 3. Economy inflation reduction act. That is something every American should fire these people for alone. Are you aware of the hunter biden peddling scheme? Have you been watching the hearings on capital hill? I don't watch msm. Look at independent journalism and you will find the horrors of the biden admin. Btw do I think trump will be better? No I don't. But he isn't worse by a long shot. No matter what the msm has sold the public. Public never looks beyond the surface.

[@JToca]

Oh brother!

[@jamesmayes4351]

Oh look a worse version of the 13 keys to the whitehouse.

[@RobOfTheNorth2001]

I was always puzzled why he got booted from his baby 538. Now I know. It seems COVID broke him.

[@FiendishThingy1965]

It wasn’t COVID that got him booted from 538, it was his corruption in allowing the 538 averages and forecast model to be openly and deliberately manipulated in the 2022 midterms by a flood of deeply flawed and biased polls by shady fly-by-night pollsters nobody had ever heard of, or were known to be biased. This resulted in 538 forecasting a Red Wave, projecting the GOP would pick up 40+ seats in the house…and we know just how off the mark that forecast was. Silver was arrogant in responding to criticism of his corruption saying “Dems could have published their own shitty polls too”. Glad ABC kicked him to the curb.

[@nanszoo3092]

I think a lot of our people have COVID-related brain damage ... there is so much of this kind of uninformed, ignorant rhetoric going around currently.

[@Kevin-fh5ci]

So, he has no idea..ok. That was a lot of bla bla bla.

[@BnzLuft-ce1iz]

This video absolutely SUCKS Nate.

[@Lambert7785]

walter is such a good interviewer :)

[@ericchang9568]

He got 2016 wrong ans has he leaned anything yet?

[@user-fr3ni4bj7n]

Isn’t Nate Silver owned by Peter Thiel now? Makes whatever he says worthless to me.

[@150WPR]

whydid Nate say distrust about the Catholic Church

[@timknin]

Allan Lichtman said you rely on polls to much!! I like Allan Lichtman prediction better!! Keep a eye on the "Keys"!!!👍

[@pcbacklash_3261]

Lichtman's overrated. There's no evidence of his supposed presidential predictions prior to 2004, and he was wrong about Trump in 2016, predicting he'd win the popular vote (and subsequently changing it, after the fact, to predicting he'd win the electoral college).

[@TheWasif]

I wouldn’t say Nate Silver is “prophetic” as his record is not as strong as Prof Lichtman, for one.

[@user-fe7ll3tv8h]

I prefer Allan Lichtman!,

[@pcbacklash_3261]

Lichtman's overrated. There's no evidence of his supposed presidential predictions prior to 2004, and he was wrong about Trump winning the popular vote in 2016 (which he subsequently changed, after the fact, to say he'd win the electoral college).

[@Jessica-kk1cz]

Agreed. Polls are bunk anymore. I get calls and texts all the time, and I just hang up and delete. Who knows which ones are real, if any. I’ll never know because I don’t engage. But I absolutely will be voting. What Silver misses are all the active voters that avoid pollsters nowadays - and what our votes will be.

[@jomamacallinyou]

Ok. Make the choice. Don't bury your head in the sand. YOU go and decide who dies. Go to your community and tell old people, "Sorry it's time you you to die.". Then, of course, being the big risk taker, you then have to face the consequence of taking that. Suicide, you then know, would be the smartest, most successful path to take.

[@ArslanOtcular]

Lee Maria Smith Maria Thomas Donald

[@sunrisesunset5276]

Nate Silver is a Disney operatives!

[@redgree1645]

This guy, so much about nothing.?!🤷‍♀️ Fact, we don’t know until we know.

[@DL10663]

BS artist

[@radhikaschwartz3499]

Is Nate silver Joe Rohan’s brother. Two peas in a pod. Don’t waste your time w Nate silver. Alan Lichtman has more integrity ,intelligence, discrimination and calls the right president every time.

[@pcbacklash_3261]

No, he doesn't. There's no evidence of his supposed presidential predictions prior to 2004, and he was wrong about Trump in 2016 -- predicting he'd win the popular vote, then altering it, after the fact, to say he'd win the electoral college. The guy's overrated.

[@nicolasolton]

Wasn't Alan recommending that dementia addled Biden stay in the race?

[@dodo-og2ss]

If I care what Nate silver says after 2016, then I deserve to be trumped again.

[@ademeyer]

Interesting. Or not. (I guess that’s a call. Uh oh)

[@catarinamealha]

This guy scares me

[@mattv3668]

Nate should just shave his head and ditch the hat.

[@SleazyDonny]

What an arrogant self-absorbed gambler. He thinks it would have been better to open schools earlier during covid even if that meant many thousands of people dying? His idea of risk-taking, which he thinks is so cool, merely involves sacrificing other people's lives.

[@nanszoo3092]

with teachers and students out sick constantly ... or would they have gone to school sick? What plan? a better idea would have been to adjust the school schedules so that kids could make up any learning loss right away until they caught up to age/grade level.

[@michaelramsey3643]

Don't platform dangerous hack Nate Silver.

[@natashanicholson1688]

…very interesting…and informative…

[@1donjuego]

Elections are NOT the result of probabilities. Nate Silver is just fundamentally wrong in his entire paradigm. What is similar, is the limited information. But there is no calculation of probabilities as in poker. In politics, the number of cards, and the type of cards, in the deck is infinite.

[@esounds1]

He looks like he needs some mental help!

[@thealexfish4480]

hat

[@Optimisticaboutit]

Easy lay up 2024 🇺🇸 Vote Blue 💙 Save Democracy ❤

[@shirleyashanti3031]

Democracy sucks, but a world without it sucks more.

[@magouliana32]

Kamala was not elected 😂

[@davidhoover3347]

Nate Silver has the best election model out there for mass consumption that I've seen.

[@michaelmazowiecki9195]

Better to interview Prof Lichtman. Silver comes across as a blowhard BSer.

[@pcbacklash_3261]

Lichtman's no better. Try finding evidence for his supposed presidential predictions prior to 2004. And re-examine his 2016 prediction, where he insisted Trump would win the popular vote (which he subsequently altered, after the fact, to state that Trump would win the electoral college). the guy's overrated.

[@bobshepard47]

🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊 His models are based on polling data. All the non numerical, not easily quantified factors, that he doesn't include, are screaming blue tsunami. He also says that polling doesn't start to converge toward the future outcome until mid September

[@danieltaylor4849]

Blue puddle, how do expect the lowest rated VP in history is going to beat Trump? No way

[@nanszoo3092]

and how many of us do not answer polls

[@bobshepard47]

@@nanszoo3092 generally, the people who do answer polls are more enthusiastic about their candidate than the average person. Models attempt to account for this