Walter is an interviewer par excellence. Asks short, sharp, crystal clear, penetrating questions of intelligent, knowledgeable interviewees. He’s a ‘must watch’.
@carminaburana976522 күн бұрын
I hate when people compare politics to games. Badly run governments cost lives.
@nanszoo309221 күн бұрын
and just open schools, because sick teachers teach really effectively, sick kids don't have any learning loss, and sick parents (or dead ones) have no effect on the students or their education. Really? smh at the ignorance.
@atmostud3924 күн бұрын
What intelligent questions from Walter Isaacson. This is the kind of journalism we've been missing.
@Cleaner-World27 күн бұрын
"Yeah, look, I should probably just stick to poker."
@Mr512austintexas24 күн бұрын
I remember 2016. Republicans, remember what Trump said: "We don't need your votes." Democrats: WORK!!
@msolomonii982527 күн бұрын
This guy just doesn't give me any real sense he has any grand understanding of things.
@OMGWTFLOLSMH27 күн бұрын
He's selling a book.
@drewmqn27 күн бұрын
He knows a ton about some very narrow topics. His careful framing can come off as... not confidence inspiring. I appreciate the precision of his speech though. Whether his knowledge is generalizable to other areas of life you have to decide for yourself.
@daciefusjones812825 күн бұрын
he has a bigger fan base than you do.
@TheWasif25 күн бұрын
That’s the feeling I got.
@Malavander23 күн бұрын
That's because anyone who understands statistics and probability has come to grips with how much uncertainty and complexity most systems actually have. When speaking honestly, they tend to speak in very uncertain terms and couch their language in modifiers to convey that there's a wide range of possible outcomes. Lay-people who don't understand statistics and probability often perceive this as incompetence, preferring instead those who speak over-confidently with more certainty than is actually warranted. Our brains are allergic to uncertainty and yearn to hear definitive statements we can file away and never have to think about again. Good rule of thumb - anyone who speaks that way is almost certainly bullshitting.
@brianhennessey91827 күн бұрын
In a recent interview with Ezra Klein of the NYT, Silver self describes himself as a libertarian and would not have voted for Biden in a Biden-Trump matchup. He's lost his way.
@radhikaschwartz349927 күн бұрын
Lost his way is an nderstatement.
@1donjuego27 күн бұрын
Absolutely right.
@matthewrobinson217227 күн бұрын
In this context I’m more interested in the quality of his professional judgement than his politics.
@davidhoover334727 күн бұрын
Who cares as long as his model is good, which it is.
@trevinbeattie488827 күн бұрын
But would he have voted for Trump, a 3rd-party candidate, or none of the above? And does his position change with the Harris v. Trump race?
@joanrankin282727 күн бұрын
Electoral college has to go.
@stevechance15027 күн бұрын
God yes! Any system that could allow someone to win with only 22% of the popular vote is a seriously F'd up system.
@vestcoat27 күн бұрын
Absolutely!
@1donjuego27 күн бұрын
Your tune will change. Texas will be blue within 2 decades -- locking in Dems as unbeatable even with a popular vote loss. Then you will write that it must stay.
@chetisanhart345726 күн бұрын
Until it doesn't benefit your party. I guess you don't actually like the constitution.
@michaelpuffer729926 күн бұрын
The Constitution has problems like counting slaves as 3/5 a person. Pointing out issues in the Constitution is not a bad thing. That's why amendments exist to fix issues.
@codymorse248426 күн бұрын
This makes me miss when 538 was good, before ABC started slowly killing it.
@Mmmyess26 күн бұрын
It was never good.
@Fix_It_Again_Tony25 күн бұрын
When Clare left I basically stopped listening.
@FiendishThingy196525 күн бұрын
ABC didn’t kill 538, Silver did by allowing the averages and forecast model to be deliberately manipulated in the 2022 midtermswith a flood of deeply flawed and biased polls that created the illusion of a “Red Wave” - with the inclusion of these flawed polls, Silver had projected the GOP would pick up 40+ seats in the house. We know how wrong that turned out to be, and thankfully, ABC showed him the door shortly afterwards.
@fabesey201625 күн бұрын
Are there any good alternatives? I know RCP exists but they just give an unweighted average as far as I know.
@FiendishThingy196525 күн бұрын
@@fabesey2016 my rule of thumb is no individual poll is worth celebrating or panicking over, and as we have seen, averages can be manipulated. Following trends (not averages, but directions of movement) seems like a safer course of action, although doesn’t give one the artificial comfort and illusory specificity of proclaiming “we’re winning with left handed college educated Pacific Islanders!”
@rogerlandes630926 күн бұрын
I endured this until 7:23 when Isaacson quoted Elon Musk. Bye!
@ThunderClapish23 күн бұрын
Yeah, he also dropped the ball & lost his professional distance with his Elon biography. Ew.
@nanshe3x23 күн бұрын
Thanks for the warning! Moving on.
@derek441223 күн бұрын
What's wrong with Elon Musk? Did NPR start telling all the progressives who to dump on again?
@rogerlandes630923 күн бұрын
@@derek4412 If you don't know what's wrong with Elon Musk then you're either not paying attention or you might be a fascist, too.
@derek441222 күн бұрын
@@rogerlandes6309 What happens to fascists like me?
@mariapeagler266725 күн бұрын
Nate Silver predicted Trump had only a 3% chance of being the GOP nominee in 2016. So why is the media still giving him air time? He. Has. No. Idea.
@momof3sonsatl24 күн бұрын
Point well made.
@richman166124 күн бұрын
Because nbc fired him and he can now do whatever he wants.
@saxmanphd27 күн бұрын
Allan Lichtman is a better predictor of presidential elections.
@pcbacklash_326126 күн бұрын
I beg to differ. Despite extensive research, I can find NO evidence whatsoever of Lichtman's supposed election predictions prior to 2004. Furthermore, he was wrong about Trump winning the popular vote in 2016 (which he later altered, after the fact, to be about winning the electoral college). The guy's overrated.
@nicolasolton25 күн бұрын
Alan was also recommending that Biden stay in the race, and was ok with the idea of him being the next president for 4 more years.😮
@dreamcatcher54taurus6625 күн бұрын
@@nicolasoltonbased on the keys. He said Kamala would be the best choice if Biden stepped down.
@pcbacklash_326125 күн бұрын
I've responded to this comment previously, but I see that -- like so many other KZbin comments these days -- it's magically disappeared. My point is that Lichtman is overrated. There is absolutely NO evidence of his supposed presidential prognostications prior to 2004, and he was mistaken about 2016. He predicted Trump would win the popular vote, then changed it to electoral college after he was proven wrong.
@TIG557424 күн бұрын
@@nicolasoltonAnd he could've been right.
@kathys.868627 күн бұрын
After his 2016 debacle, I don't know why anyone would trust Nate Silver's take anymore. With his 13 keys scientific model, Allan Lichtman is a much better forecaster of presidential election outcomes.
@PaulEgges27 күн бұрын
I would hardly call it a debacle. I believe he gave Trump a 30% chance. 30% is not bad odds. Just think of a baseball player who's odds at the plate are .300. There is a pretty good chance he'll get a hit. Trump basically won by less than a 100,000 votes, so it was not even close to a land side. If you factor in FBI’s controversial decision to reopen its investigation into Clinton’s emails 11 days before the election was not accounted for in many of the polls. Some of the polling occurred before this news came out. Allan Lichtman's 2016 book and paper stated that the keys only referred to the popular vote, which Donald Trump lost. So his prediction was wrong. He has since then changed to saying that because of a bias for Democrats his keys now predict the electoral college winner.
@i.am.navkaur27 күн бұрын
AGREED.
@sirdiealot5327 күн бұрын
What debacle? He had Trump like 45% chance to win
@johncarroll517827 күн бұрын
He was closer than any other pundit, and he did not write Trump off in that race, Lichtman is completely unscientific.
@tosvus27 күн бұрын
@@sirdiealot53 But Trump won, so he was off, obviously. Lichtman did predict it. That said, I still find value in listening to Silver as well. He's a smart guy, like him or not.
@sherrieludwig50827 күн бұрын
I disagree with Nate Silver on the response to the pandemic, largely because he thinks of winning/losing in monetary terms, while I think in terms of lives lost. How many poker games would even a good poker player like to enter if every loss meant a life lost, or a piece of his own body taken? When the "winnings" are not super life, or super health, but simply status quo? Vis a vis. risk taking for the sake of risk taking seems kind of pointless. Risk taking for a REASON, that's a skill to cultivate.
@kevinjenner950227 күн бұрын
Throughout the pandemic and to this day, the US remains the world leader in Covid deaths.
@oldbeatpete27 күн бұрын
To think, the lessons of the 1920 'Spanish flu' which all the conservatives and libertarians ignored.
@sammonicuslux27 күн бұрын
He is a Libertarian....do they care about anything but money?
@jhodapp27 күн бұрын
@@sammonicusluxyes, also extreme personal autonomy over doing the hard work of figuring out the greater good through cooperation.
@flootflootful27 күн бұрын
I’m a left-leaning immuno compromised person who spent 2020-2021 in a bunker (my tiny apartment) and a mask. But I hear about the persistent absenteeism in schools and reading and math levels which still haven’t recovered, esp in younger students-did we do the kids a disservice? Not to say masks were wrong but in retrospect I don’t know if shutting down schools was a good decision. That is to say, maybe COVID restrictions weren’t all good…idk
@Developerexpertpro6 күн бұрын
Nate Silver’s insight into the Democrats’ improved odds highlights important changes in the political forecast. It’s worth keeping an eye on these trends.
@seo893826 күн бұрын
This man is not a scholar, does not make evidence-based assertions, and has no place among the smart and powerful people you have on here. Is this some attempt to draw in the "bro" culture where personal opinions and "gut feeling" are seen as equal to a career of dedicated study?
@adamcarrey911525 күн бұрын
In case you forget the name of his book, just look to the left of him. What a huckster.
@ghanyathomas953827 күн бұрын
Not impressed at all. He’s no different from Joe Rogan.
@RyanMichero27 күн бұрын
I'm not a fan of Nate Silver's politics or punditry. However, I've gotta say he's smarter than Rogan and does have an empirical/mathematical/programmatic method of working out a *probability* of political victory based on polls. He's not Nostradamus or anything and wouldn't claim to be, and he'd be the first to say nobody can predict the future. He's essentially just computing the odds through a complicated method of evaluating poll data.
@symptl26 күн бұрын
He tends to have the best election forecasting with the available data. You need to separate your political preferences from the model itself. Before anyone brings up 2016, he had a roughly 30% chance of victory for Trump that year. That's almost as high as winning your next round of Rock Paper Scissors. That's not crazy at all from a stats standpoint.
@allaboutperspective65024 күн бұрын
@@symptl Allan Lichtman is way better at forecasting.
@chetisanhart345726 күн бұрын
Black swan event ? You're about to have a black woman event.
@nicolasolton25 күн бұрын
So Donald lost to Sleepy Joe in 2020, and he will lose to this cackling Kamela woman in 2024? How will his fragile ego handle being such a loser..?😮😢
@bkbland162624 күн бұрын
Excellent. I can't wait.
@momof3sonsatl24 күн бұрын
@@spanishflea634 Half-black is black. Stop trying to identify people for people. It's not your place. So, yeah, a Black woman event, an Indian woman event, a black-Indian woman event-whatever one we want to use is how she identifies. When you are 50% Irish, 20% Scottish, and 30% German, people say they are white. We do not try to force them to say they are IRISH. And Aisha is a Black name but I have heard white women have the name. People can name their kids from whatever culture. They DO NOT have to be of that culture.
@ycplum706224 күн бұрын
Some characterize intuition as a subconscious calculation/assessment. This is in contrast to a conscious calculation where you consciously outline the factors and consciously make the calculations.
@tpiety23 күн бұрын
Older people are less interested in big risks.
@nanszoo309221 күн бұрын
So are most parents of school children I would think. I know I because more risk-adverse when I had children.
@WilliamBennett-y6g25 күн бұрын
A desire to collection poker winnings motivated his transition into political punditry. WTF, PBS?!
@chuckkottke27 күн бұрын
Addressing the concerns which plague us most is key to winning. And Kamala Harris will do that. Promote the positive, negate the negative, and keep that momentum going!! 🇺🇸🗽⚖️💙💙💙💙💙⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
@carlabritton894925 күн бұрын
Arkansas county girl here refuses to vote Trump male, chauvinist, asshole who thinks he can tell women what they need to do and what is right for women I take care of my own body. Don’t need no man telling me what to do with it.
@nicolasolton25 күн бұрын
Maybe, maybe not. In November we shall find out. 🤷
@allaboutperspective65024 күн бұрын
She will not only win but she will win with a great margin, yes even the Electoral College!
@user-mm4qw2bt8d24 күн бұрын
Kamala means fragrant flower in India. Trump means fart in the United Kingdom. The likeness to reality is uncanny.
@timothyfreeseha405625 күн бұрын
I think your guest is really interesting - engaging, and wise. I wish Americans could take his advice and observations to heart. Being the player whose pot is the future of American children's well being, we might want to apply these suggestions in selecting candidates who are advocates for what matters to Americans, rather than winning a contest.
@oldbeatpete27 күн бұрын
"I feel entitled" enough to label one of the candidates a real Jerk!
@thesilkpainter17 күн бұрын
This guy clearly has some problems selling his book.🤣🤣
@Dandelionfleur25 күн бұрын
Nah, I get better advice from my cat!
@weston.weston27 күн бұрын
Hmmm, he's become more conservative over time he says. I would like him to explore that further because I don't think that is a wise move.
@user-oc6dh2yp2w27 күн бұрын
Nate Silver should keep his previous job, the one he had before he started pretending to be a political expert.
@timothyfreeseha405625 күн бұрын
I think there should be more conversation about the people rather than leadership. It is an interesting development that we have a potential felon as a candidate for leadership, and strong support for that candidate! I am not interested so much in a judgement against that leadership as much as i am interested in why this has come about. That any part of the american people believe that these allegations against the former President are made up says a lot, imo. More, that people entertain the idea that only certain people among our representatives are corrupt- can somehow exist in a clean environment, is even more interesting.
@robertmiller513525 күн бұрын
I just love the way Silver adopts the take a risk strategy with people's lives, especially those of children around covid. I am going to go out on a limb and say that he doesn't have any children and sees no risk in other people losing theirs. Something he and people like him always forget - we didn't know what was going to happen. It was an unknown virus with unknown consequences, and in that world, caution is the best strategy. Silver like Musk proves one thing, you can be talented in one field e.g. poker but that doesn't necessarily transfer to any other walk of life. He comes across, as I imagine all professional poker players to be, like a teenager who never really grew up.
@Canyon20234 күн бұрын
Great questions!
@irusev23 күн бұрын
Amazing interview. I'll have to now buy this book! Walter is an outstanding interviewer(for rational guests) I am curious how will he do with someone like Trump
@jeffbendoski836425 күн бұрын
I was more impressed with Walter Isaacson than the poker nerd.
@roberthaworth899125 күн бұрын
He's squirrelly, and polling is no longer his #1 gig -- sports betting, and statistical analysis to support his poker career, are his things now. Ignore Nate Silver; he's been overtaken by polling pros.
@nicolasolton25 күн бұрын
Squirrely?
@cocoacrispy780227 күн бұрын
"You can't avoid tough choices sometimes." Pearls of Wisdom. /s
@emmma32624 күн бұрын
What about inviting Allan Lichtman?
@CashflowMeDaddy2 күн бұрын
This guy was calling for Hillary all the way up to Trump win back in 2016.
@lxb88b26 күн бұрын
Polls are irrelevant
@ingecarothers530920 күн бұрын
When trump was winning they were relevant
@CodyAvant22 күн бұрын
Nate plugging his book by arranging copies as a negatively skewed histogram.
@masterstl25 күн бұрын
Amazing interview
@caroletomlinson548025 күн бұрын
Without including the Supreme Court on Mr. Silver’s list of declining trust (“…from the Catholic Church to the media”) his political philosophy is non-productive, diverting away from powers that affect our laws, thus worthless. Of course, his interests are not philosophical nor political, only chance.
@TL-qr3ii26 күн бұрын
his characterization of reciprocity is wrong. he's talking about best response functions not reciprocity.
@UpperDarbyDetailing24 күн бұрын
Trump has NOT been attacking Kamala about her race. He attacked her for using her race like a chess piece. Calling herself whatever she felt was most beneficial.
@JohnSmith-ft4fz24 күн бұрын
As a poker player, an 80/20 is a toss up
@1SkrillexFan25 күн бұрын
I love how brat Nate’s book is 🟩
@nicolasolton25 күн бұрын
Brat?
@randallsmith563124 күн бұрын
The old man vs the young ingenue.
@ivanmucyongabo954018 күн бұрын
Is this guys job to rationalize our shittiness as a country and individual citizens? The U S. on every level needs to be better. Me included.
@MrTheLuckyshot27 күн бұрын
I really want Hariis to win, but reality is that this is the BEST polling position Trump has ever been in in mid-August. The race has shifted in Harris’s direction lately, but it's a coin flip right now even with things going well for her.
@pcbacklash_326126 күн бұрын
Actually, it's not. Before Biden dropped out, Trump led him in EVERY swing state polling average. Since then, Harris now leads in Michigan and Wisconsin, is tied with him in Pennsylvania, and steadily closing the gap in Arizona -- once Trump's biggest lead, down from +6.0 to +0.8. The only place Harris' advance appears to have stalled is in Georgia where, after steadily closing the gap, she's now been stuck at Trump +0.6 for a few days. All told, the momentum is most definitely still with Harris, though it does appear to be slowing. But that's probably because there's a dwindling pool of undecided voters.
@marinasands431926 күн бұрын
All polls trending for a massive collapse of the MAGA party
@Jessica-kk1cz23 күн бұрын
Agreed. Polls are bunk anymore. I get calls and texts all the time, and I just hang up and delete. Who knows which ones are real, if any. I’ll never know because I don’t engage. But I absolutely will be voting. What Silver misses are all the active voters that avoid pollsters nowadays - and what our votes will be.
@ivanmucyongabo954018 күн бұрын
White Swan events. The diffusion of responbilty is strong.
@touchozz27 күн бұрын
Great interview!
@Alan-lv9rw20 күн бұрын
Harris won’t take questions.
@amadorcastro580123 күн бұрын
That's right, make electoral forecasting based on gambling strategies. Why is anyone listening to anything Silver has to say after 2016?
@lidiadiaz839327 күн бұрын
I don’t believe anything this guy says he does not seem authentic
@jimslancio25 күн бұрын
An election forecast could've been given in the first 15 seconds. Before I listen through a 17-minute shaggy dog story, I want some idea of the payoff.
@DorTur24 күн бұрын
Is there any mention of a third party, defections to independent?
@Personalfinance_1017425 күн бұрын
I haven't seen anything in Nate's work that suggests a deep understanding or novel use of probability to warrant cloaking him as if he does have that. Many thousands of people have similar undergrad degrees from very good universities and are also able to reach similar conclusion that also match the common view from publicly available information.
@jomamacallinyou24 күн бұрын
Giving a damn is the biggest weakness of the Democrat party. Dividing over important issues is a serious handicap. This guy has a very narrow view of the world. His view is this popular corporate view. Yes, it is the way to win, but it comes with huge negative results as well. Big business nearly always has options to minimize or even profit from mistakes.
@stayclean77724 күн бұрын
I wonder if Nate ever had to factor **lunacy** into, say, his Poker calculations? Doesn't seem like it.
@aquamarine9991126 күн бұрын
Great questions.
@JLL8310210 күн бұрын
Finally he’s wearing a hat to cover up his hideous balding hairdo
@sideeye795824 күн бұрын
You add the Assignation of trump to the Democrats? WTF!
@hareshadnani50542 күн бұрын
Tim Walz like Hubert Humphrey and Walter Mondale is from Minnesota. They became Vice Presidents in 1976 and 1964 when Jupiter in was in a near identical place The Presidents they served under Lyndon Johnson and Jimmy Carter served only for one term . Both Lyndon Johnson and Jimmy Carter were bogged down by foreign policy setbacks in Vietnam and Iran. Jupiter was in near identical transits in 1968 and 1979. Johnson chose not to run in 1968 and Carter ran in 1980 and lost. Both Humphrey and Mondale ran for President and both lost . Kamala Harris will win the elections . Even Alan Lictman has anointed her . She will serve for only one term . Tim Walz will run for President and will lose.
@Steven-d7w3t23 күн бұрын
Nate Silver😂 Brought and paid for by Big Money!!🤔. Shaded polling!!
@sess520624 күн бұрын
Who is responsible for our strong economy? Biden, that's who.
@Savagetennis23 күн бұрын
If our people think kamala is good, we lost our way a long time ago. I thought obama was bad, then I thought trump was worse, then biden came along and out did everyone as awful. Kamala will be even worse.
@richardc86122 күн бұрын
Well said
@nanszoo309221 күн бұрын
What exactly is so bad about these people in your opinion? I really am curious.
@richardc86121 күн бұрын
@@nanszoo3092 Obama was all talk and didn’t end any wars, encouraged civil wars in Libya, Syria etc but looks Libya now as a failed state and Assad is still in Syria. Remember you’ve crossed a red line when assad chemical bombed children in Syria, Obama did nothing in the end. I don’t think race relations got better under Obama, may have gotten worse. Sad indictment on Obama that the country wanted and voted in Trump, what does that say about his legacy. Trump what can I say, poor performance when in office, didn’t achieve a lot of goals, bitter exit. Biden just came across as weak, not fit for the role, people pulling the strings behind him and his despise speaks volumes for a sitting president. Harris is similarly weak, poor polling as Vice President, selected rather elected through a primary or by voters. Not a good speaker, will struggle in front of worlds media and against Russia/China. Also don’t like her leftest policies imo.
@Savagetennis21 күн бұрын
@nanszoo3092 ok. First look at how many states have sued biden over covid restrictions. 2. Border.over 15 million into this country 3. Economy inflation reduction act. That is something every American should fire these people for alone. Are you aware of the hunter biden peddling scheme? Have you been watching the hearings on capital hill? I don't watch msm. Look at independent journalism and you will find the horrors of the biden admin. Btw do I think trump will be better? No I don't. But he isn't worse by a long shot. No matter what the msm has sold the public. Public never looks beyond the surface.
@JToca24 күн бұрын
Oh brother!
@jamesmayes435124 күн бұрын
Oh look a worse version of the 13 keys to the whitehouse.
@RobOfTheNorth200126 күн бұрын
I was always puzzled why he got booted from his baby 538. Now I know. It seems COVID broke him.
@FiendishThingy196525 күн бұрын
It wasn’t COVID that got him booted from 538, it was his corruption in allowing the 538 averages and forecast model to be openly and deliberately manipulated in the 2022 midterms by a flood of deeply flawed and biased polls by shady fly-by-night pollsters nobody had ever heard of, or were known to be biased. This resulted in 538 forecasting a Red Wave, projecting the GOP would pick up 40+ seats in the house…and we know just how off the mark that forecast was. Silver was arrogant in responding to criticism of his corruption saying “Dems could have published their own shitty polls too”. Glad ABC kicked him to the curb.
@nanszoo309221 күн бұрын
I think a lot of our people have COVID-related brain damage ... there is so much of this kind of uninformed, ignorant rhetoric going around currently.
@Kevin-fh5ci26 күн бұрын
So, he has no idea..ok. That was a lot of bla bla bla.
@BnzLuft-ce1iz15 күн бұрын
This video absolutely SUCKS Nate.
@Lambert778527 күн бұрын
walter is such a good interviewer :)
@ericchang956825 күн бұрын
He got 2016 wrong ans has he leaned anything yet?
@user-fr3ni4bj7n26 күн бұрын
Isn’t Nate Silver owned by Peter Thiel now? Makes whatever he says worthless to me.
@150WPR27 күн бұрын
whydid Nate say distrust about the Catholic Church
@timknin26 күн бұрын
Allan Lichtman said you rely on polls to much!! I like Allan Lichtman prediction better!! Keep a eye on the "Keys"!!!👍
@pcbacklash_326126 күн бұрын
Lichtman's overrated. There's no evidence of his supposed presidential predictions prior to 2004, and he was wrong about Trump in 2016, predicting he'd win the popular vote (and subsequently changing it, after the fact, to predicting he'd win the electoral college).
@TheWasif25 күн бұрын
I wouldn’t say Nate Silver is “prophetic” as his record is not as strong as Prof Lichtman, for one.
@user-fe7ll3tv8h27 күн бұрын
I prefer Allan Lichtman!,
@pcbacklash_326126 күн бұрын
Lichtman's overrated. There's no evidence of his supposed presidential predictions prior to 2004, and he was wrong about Trump winning the popular vote in 2016 (which he subsequently changed, after the fact, to say he'd win the electoral college).
@Jessica-kk1cz23 күн бұрын
Agreed. Polls are bunk anymore. I get calls and texts all the time, and I just hang up and delete. Who knows which ones are real, if any. I’ll never know because I don’t engage. But I absolutely will be voting. What Silver misses are all the active voters that avoid pollsters nowadays - and what our votes will be.
@jomamacallinyou24 күн бұрын
Ok. Make the choice. Don't bury your head in the sand. YOU go and decide who dies. Go to your community and tell old people, "Sorry it's time you you to die.". Then, of course, being the big risk taker, you then have to face the consequence of taking that. Suicide, you then know, would be the smartest, most successful path to take.
@ArslanOtcular18 күн бұрын
Lee Maria Smith Maria Thomas Donald
@sunrisesunset527617 күн бұрын
Nate Silver is a Disney operatives!
@redgree164526 күн бұрын
This guy, so much about nothing.?!🤷♀️ Fact, we don’t know until we know.
@DL1066326 күн бұрын
BS artist
@radhikaschwartz349927 күн бұрын
Is Nate silver Joe Rohan’s brother. Two peas in a pod. Don’t waste your time w Nate silver. Alan Lichtman has more integrity ,intelligence, discrimination and calls the right president every time.
@pcbacklash_326126 күн бұрын
No, he doesn't. There's no evidence of his supposed presidential predictions prior to 2004, and he was wrong about Trump in 2016 -- predicting he'd win the popular vote, then altering it, after the fact, to say he'd win the electoral college. The guy's overrated.
@nicolasolton25 күн бұрын
Wasn't Alan recommending that dementia addled Biden stay in the race?
@dodo-og2ss25 күн бұрын
If I care what Nate silver says after 2016, then I deserve to be trumped again.
@ademeyer25 күн бұрын
Interesting. Or not. (I guess that’s a call. Uh oh)
@catarinamealha25 күн бұрын
This guy scares me
@mattv366826 күн бұрын
Nate should just shave his head and ditch the hat.
@SleazyDonny24 күн бұрын
What an arrogant self-absorbed gambler. He thinks it would have been better to open schools earlier during covid even if that meant many thousands of people dying? His idea of risk-taking, which he thinks is so cool, merely involves sacrificing other people's lives.
@nanszoo309221 күн бұрын
with teachers and students out sick constantly ... or would they have gone to school sick? What plan? a better idea would have been to adjust the school schedules so that kids could make up any learning loss right away until they caught up to age/grade level.
@michaelramsey364324 күн бұрын
Don't platform dangerous hack Nate Silver.
@natashanicholson168826 күн бұрын
…very interesting…and informative…
@1donjuego27 күн бұрын
Elections are NOT the result of probabilities. Nate Silver is just fundamentally wrong in his entire paradigm. What is similar, is the limited information. But there is no calculation of probabilities as in poker. In politics, the number of cards, and the type of cards, in the deck is infinite.
@esounds127 күн бұрын
He looks like he needs some mental help!
@thealexfish448023 күн бұрын
hat
@Optimisticaboutit27 күн бұрын
Easy lay up 2024 🇺🇸 Vote Blue 💙 Save Democracy ❤
@shirleyashanti303127 күн бұрын
Democracy sucks, but a world without it sucks more.
@magouliana3227 күн бұрын
Kamala was not elected 😂
@davidhoover334727 күн бұрын
Nate Silver has the best election model out there for mass consumption that I've seen.
@michaelmazowiecki919527 күн бұрын
Better to interview Prof Lichtman. Silver comes across as a blowhard BSer.
@pcbacklash_326126 күн бұрын
Lichtman's no better. Try finding evidence for his supposed presidential predictions prior to 2004. And re-examine his 2016 prediction, where he insisted Trump would win the popular vote (which he subsequently altered, after the fact, to state that Trump would win the electoral college). the guy's overrated.
@bobshepard4726 күн бұрын
🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊 His models are based on polling data. All the non numerical, not easily quantified factors, that he doesn't include, are screaming blue tsunami. He also says that polling doesn't start to converge toward the future outcome until mid September
@danieltaylor484926 күн бұрын
Blue puddle, how do expect the lowest rated VP in history is going to beat Trump? No way
@nanszoo309221 күн бұрын
and how many of us do not answer polls
@bobshepard4721 күн бұрын
@@nanszoo3092 generally, the people who do answer polls are more enthusiastic about their candidate than the average person. Models attempt to account for this