Herd Immunity -- Facts and Numbers

I read a lot about herd immunity lately and thought that some of you might be interested, too, in a brief summary.
Correction to what I say at 49 secs. Herd immunity was not first observed on sheep, the phrase was first used referring to sheep. See:
www.thelancet.com/journals/la...
Support me on Patreon: / sabine
The paper about herd immunity suggesting 40% is this:
science.sciencemag.org/conten...
The one with the even lower estimate is this:
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.11...
Please remember that these are models, and these are the very optimistic end. The more conservative estimate is about 60-70%.
The paper about the blood donation study in Manaus is this:
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.11...
You find the Great Barrington Declaration here:
gbdeclaration.org/
The pieces from the Guardian I mention are here:
www.theguardian.com/commentis...
www.theguardian.com/commentis...
The one in the Lancet is this:
www.thelancet.com/journals/la...
Sound: zapsplat.com
#science #education #covid
0:00 Intro
0:21 What is herd immunity?
1:28 When do we reach herd immunity? Simple Answer.
3:33 When do we reach herd immunity? Complicated Answer.
5:40 What do the data say?
10:52 Fact Summary.
11:14 The Great Barrington Declaration
13:24 Why am I telling you this?

[@somethingsomethingsomethingdar]

“In some ways we are all like sheep” Me watching this on my iPhone: 😥

[@johnsmith1474]

She's referring to string theory physicists.

[@kushagr7132]

@@johnsmith1474 🤣

[@ZardoDhieldor]

She is trying to say "Wake up, sheeple!" but she can't because she's been captured by the alien lizards who rule the world.

[@poposterous236]

holy cringe dudes, 2002 was 18 years ago. pointing out homogeneous behaviors in society doesn't make you cool.

[@lxathu]

YES, WE'RE ALL INDIVIDUALS!

[@mattcay]

You're probably a person with the most extreme no-nonsense attitude that I know of. I love it! Thanks for providing a breath of fresh air every time you talk about some hot-button issue.

[@johnv341]

@Roger Loquitur I can summarise your comment in 2 words..... "totally irrelevant".

[@johnv341]

@Roger Loquitur My point is that your comment was irrelevant. And your response was rude.

[@pragmaticamente4734]

@@johnv341 I can summarise your comment in one word.. "jealous". .. LMAO..

[@beedeebee13]

Except it isn't "Herd Immunity". It is called "Shared Immunity" and the choice of vocabulary ties heavily into the debate over Free Will, which is a Neurological Debate. Anyone who calls me a herd animal and says I don't have free will is off of my subs list. Unfortunately, because Sabine is great in her field. It's too bad her field is so lacking in morality and compassion.

[@DanksterPaws]

@@pragmaticamente4734 why is he jealous. I didn’t see what Roger said. What did they say?

[@glynnwright1699]

My wife, an ex research biochemist, identified that a low cost and efficient assay for T cell immunity was the way to unlock many of the answers. She made this observation back in March, I am sure many other biochemists had the same thought. I did a little foraging and found a small British company who had a promising assay for just this problem; they had been given a grant of £50,000 in June. Meanwhile, the UK is spending billions on testing regimes that give an incomplete set of parameters to formulate a strategy to minimising the impact of the virus. We both have scientific training and have been utterly dismayed by the lack of clear thinking about getting the answers to the questions you raise. Thank you for clearly stating our concerns; we were beginning to think that governments must know something that we don't.

[@simonrodriguez4685]

When the entire world is being driven by the dangerously close to random results of an inappropriate test inappropriately conducted. When most of the measures don’t make sense. When vulnerable populations are not properly protected and/or even being negligently exposed. When the numbers vary in up to three orders of magnitude! from one country to another, in other words data doesn’t make sense statistically. When rich nations with robust healthcare systems (in Europe) are being hit the hardest while poor countries where people live in crowded and unsanitary conditions, although age explains part of it, it just cannot explain the starkness of the contrast. And so on and so forth... If you’re not suspicious or at least wondering, then you’ve been brainwashed by the 24/7 fear propaganda. Where is critical thinking when it is most needed!

[@Stormgebieder]

A voice of reason in a world that seems to lose it. Thank you for caring dr. Hossenfelder!

[@nuthintoprove]

“It’s not sound science because it’s not science, it’s a value decision.” Perfect!!

[@DeanMorrison]

Which exposes the fact that the Great Barrington Declaration is a political one, not a scientific one. Unsurprising because it was assembled and promoted by a political lobby group.

[@wybo2]

@@DeanMorrison More reason why it should be discussed as a political idea rather than be labeled as 'unscientific' and dismissed on those grounds. It should be dismissed because its unpractical/unethical. The same whay we dismiss the idea of filling the federal budged deficit by printing more money. If you print enough money then the books WILL be ballanced, there nothing unscientific about this statement. Its simply a bad idea because the negative consequenses of have much more money around will outweigh the advantages of not having a deficit. Sorry if im rambeling a bit, I just need to get it of my chest.

[@stevestolarczyk8972]

@@DeanMorrison you missed what she said at the end of the video, didn’t you. “We need proper risk estimates with uncertainties. We do not need scientists who proclaim that science tells us what’s the right thing to do.” (15:00) Most intelligent summary of the issue that I’ve heard from anyone on either side, hands down.

[@stevestolarczyk8972]

Please don’t miss her point. “We need proper risk estimates with uncertainties.” That is, in fact the proper- crucial!-role of science. But she then said, “We do not need scientists who proclaim that science tells us what’s the right thing to do.” (15:00) The policy discussion is built upon the science, but doesn’t end there.

[@arnesaknussemm2427]

@@DeanMorrison you miss the point entirely.

[@jengleheimerschmitt7941]

"The simple answer is that it is complicated". Sabine, you are a rockstar.

[@toamaori]

simple minds demand simple models and simple answers... however reality does not play dat.

[@designtechdk]

Brief*

[@4G12]

@@toamaori In the words of a famous Physics popularizer, the universe is under no obligation to be comprehensible to us.

[@drrtfm]

It is complicated, but there is one simple number that's worth looking at, but is incredibly difficult to discover: what is the median age of CV19 deaths vs. the median age of death in the relevant comparison control group. I ask this because as far as I can tell, in Sweden those two numbers are more or less the same. (And median, not average, because average is very misleading in issues like age: consider triplets: one dies at age 5 because of a random accident; the other two live to 75 and 85, respectively; median age of death is 75 while average age of death is 55.)

[@cataori_program7292]

Sometimes there are actually simple answers !!

[@dano9008]

After doing a post like this, your'e probably wondering if it was sufficiently carefully stated. It was - well done and thanks.

[@SabineHossenfelder]

Thanks for the feedback, much of a relief indeed!

[@oceanliketeacher]

I second this.

[@skylerbowerbank5847]

I'll third it

[@robertstonephoto]

Indeed ... well done!

[@palfers1]

Yup. Lovely job Sabine.

[@poetryandhiking]

Wow, I think I just heard an analysis of this situation that didn’t rely solely on ad hominem remarks, appeals to authority, or plausible intuitions. Very refreshing.

[@yendorelrae5476]

I just simply want to convey how appreciated that you are...your knowledge, good attitude, confidence, accuracy of information, drive etc..Thanks for your videos!

[@oceanliketeacher]

"Science does not tell you not to piss on a high voltage line, it tells you that urine is a pretty good conducter". I heard that undertone ;) Great video, as always! We need more calm discussions on this topic, and your excellent points of clearly dividing opinions and facts is a wonderful way to achive that ♥

[@drrtfm]

It is unfortunately rather difficult to have a calm discussion when mediocre techies in Silicon Valley, who essentially know nothing of medicine in general, have decided which viewpoints to allow and which to disallow.

[@drrtfm]

@@4623620 'let's first discus if these "techies" are mediocre' I'm a prof at a global top-25 university for software engineering. I teach people whose motto is "Cali or bust." I teach people who wind up in FAANG. Yup. They're are mediocre, especially, and this is the key point, when it comes to having a clue about _anything_ other than software. "I think we have to do with what we got and try to make the best of it for all of us." Or we could move back to a decentralized system, which we had just three-decades ago, and remove the control over conversations that these people have developed. Honestly, I cannot imagine people inviting someone like Zuckerberg into their home while they are having a party and letting him meander around and tell people what they can and cannot talk about. Would you do that? More fundamentally, what do you suppose is the alternative to allowing people to talk about what they wish to talk about? Do you really think the disagreements will simply go away? In all of human history we have developed two methods of solving problems: talking and fighting. What do you think will happen if you remove talking as a method of solving problems?

[@drrtfm]

@@4623620 What an incredibly large deference-to-authority you have. Well, that's never led to anything bad happening, now, has it ....

[@duderama6750]

@UCNbh15M5uMO5j6N6w2Ccabg It's easy to gauge intelligence by the number of emojis employed, i.e. inverse proportion.

[@4623620]

@@drrtfm Discussing with you is pointless.

[@bernhardhahn8639]

Crystal clear presentation and outstanding discussion of the topic. Thank you!

[@DavidBruno]

“We do not need Scientists who proclaim that Science tells us what is the right thing to do.” BOOM! @14:45 saved the best for last 💪🏾

[@quarks9276]

That was perfect! Science is not a cult , scientists are not type of superior class. If we let scientific comunity go by that will be very easy to make tiranny around the global based in tecnocracy and science cults

[@sodalitia]

@@quarks9276 You are missing the point she made. It is still expected from scientists to make risk assessments and study the pandemic and governments should make value decisions based on evidence based analysis. Just the role of a scientist is not to declare what is the right action. Nothing about cults or technocracy here. You spin the cat to suit your tight fit tinfoil hat.

[@treble8921]

While I agree to the extent that scientists themselves should be discovering and presenting facts, science itself is simply a resource of knowledge that we use to guide our decisions. So, science absolutely "tells us what the right thing is to do", by giving us the necessary details to enable better decision-making. But when a scientist starts telling us what to do, they become a politician. ;)

[@jv-lk7bc]

"in some ways we're not all that different from sheep" her deadpan humor makes Sabine my hero.

[@josephdestaubin7426]

That was so on point that I actually shed a little tear at the end. With intellectual honesty like that, there may yet be some hope for humanity.

[@wholenutsanddonuts5741]

Thank you for a rational, numbers based discussion of this subject. It’s so refreshing to hear someone say it’s complicated, and explain why!

[@jessedaas6365]

I just felt a wave of pleasure going through me watching the last part of the video. I couldn't agree with you more! You are doing a fantastic job!

[@algorithminc.8850]

Solid treatment of herd immunity ... thank you. It's so important to apply models to dense-population groupings, then resolve effects over all populations, and not make blanket estimates like much of the media. We link to this video from the front of our corporate website along with epidemiological model information. Nice to see sane coverage of the topic. Awesome in the correct usage of the word.

[@davidjames5517]

Simply the best treatment of herd immunity on this Covid-infected planet of ours. Thank you Sabine

[@fredrikhamar4374]

even with the official numbers the chance of contracting this non-existing virus and having any form of serious complications because of it is = 0,000007% (taking the numbers from my country norway). so wake up please. this plandemic is a hoax. how do i know? because the people responsible tell us it is a hoax. research event 201 (for a start)

[@edwilson7798]

@@fredrikhamar4374 It goes back further then 201 even... This is just an example of what is written in the Rockefeller Foundation Paper from 2010...Entitled, Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International Development. This paper was based on a pandemic which plagued the entire world. 1) The pandemic also had a deadly effect on economies: international mobility of both people and goods screeched to a halt, debilitating industries like tourism and breaking global supply chains. Even locally, normally bustling shops and office buildings sat empty for months, devoid of both employees and customers. 2) The United States initial policy of “strongly discouraging” citizens from flying proved deadly in its leniency, accelerating the spread of the virus not just within the U.S. but across borders. 3) However, a few countries did fare better-China in particular. The Chinese government’s quick imposition and enforcement of mandatory quarantine for all citizens, as well as its instant and near-hermetic sealing off of all borders, saved millions of lives, stopping the spread of the virus far earlier than in other countries and enabling a swifter post-pandemic recovery. 4) During the pandemic, national leaders around the world flexed their authority and imposed airtight rules and restrictions, from the mandatory wearing of face masks to body-temperature checks at the entries to communal spaces like train stations and supermarkets. In developed countries, this heightened oversight took many forms: biometric IDs for all citizens. Fauci, even stated that Trump's administration would face a pandemic. The first man in the U.K to get his vax, was named William Shakespeare. All the world's a stage.

[@philwilson609]

@@edwilson7798 Not sure if I understand what you are saying, but I am pretty sure that you are missing the point. We know, at this point in time, what works and what does not to contain COVID. The most critical variable in any particular place is this: where does the population falls on the continuum between "individualism" and "social responsibility?" Socialist countries -Cuba, Vietnam, China - have very little problem with COVID because the government reacts swiftly and unambiguously and the population cooperates with these measures. In non socialist countries, the areas with cultural, political or religious traditions and conventions representing social responsibility do the best and have the lowest rates of COVID spread. Much of Asia and Africa fall under this cluster. Japan, Taiwan and South Korea are capitalist countries that have powerful mitigating traditions of social responsibility. In South Korea, even the anti lockdown protesters wear masks. In Nigeria - the 7th largest nation on earth - there is overwhelming compliance with COVID response protocol. Nigeria is densely populated, has an underdeveloped medical system, but has one of the lowest COVID death rates per capita on earth. The worst places are affluent capitalist nations with high value placed on individualism - Italy, the UK, France, Spain, and, the worst of all, the US. Emerging industrial nations in Latin America are also doing terribly - Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Columbia. These are countries with powerful right wing movements and massive corporate support for anti COVID mitigation movements and protests. The Great Barrington Declaration, for example, was bankrolled by billionaire fascist Charles Koch (bylinetimes.com/2020/10/13/koch-funded-pr-agency-aided-great-barrington-declaration-sponsor/). Sabine is a brilliant woman, and it is a shame that she allowed herself to be used - even tentatively - as an apologist for wing nut fascist movements.

[@mingonmongo1]

None of which matters to any of the folks choosing to 'politicize' the problem, who get all their 'health advice' from Facebook & Twitter!

[@Andrew-wv7qp]

I recently found this channel and i am now a subscriber. It is refreshing to hear a scientist talk about science as a means of understanding, rather than a body of immaculate knowledge. This video on herd immunity is an excellent example of the difference.

[@torifmdox]

You distinguish yourself from the broad majority of influencers on the net. You see things from both sides and present a "helicopter viewpoint" which balances the pros and cons in a very instructive way. You are a very valuable provider and presenter of information. Thank you.

[@jack_batterson]

"No one knows" is the correct answer. Nice job stating the current understanding of the facts.

[@robertlacamp883]

Thank you for a clear and concise review of the latest thoughts on how to proceed through this pandemic.

[@olafborkner]

Many, many thanks for your valuable and competent contributions. It is always enlightening observing things from different angles.

[@basileerla]

I've discovered your channel just recently. Love the concise and proper way you perform scientific dissemination!

[@rodrigodezubiria2007]

Thank you so much! By far the best scientific no nonsense perspective I’ve heard on Covid 19 Thank you. I think your input equates to saving lives and the advancement of science.

[@ThatHappyChap]

Fantastic video! Honestly, I wish I had such a great lecture during medschool. Thank you :)

[@Deusexmaschera]

I really like your way to explain. Linear, without random statement, and extremely clear. Many thanks for your contribution.

[@richardfrenette6648]

Thanks Sabine for such great videos! You are right on the money when you say that science does not tell us what to do, it tells us the potential consequences of our choices and actions (or the lack of action, which is also a choice).

[@WestOfEarth]

In reading the comments, I have this sense that some viewers only heard the parts they wanted to hear, and not the totality of your message.

[@1three7]

There's also the possibility you read what you expected in their replies.

[@neptasur]

"The curious taks of economics is to demostrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design." -- F.A. Hayek That's true about a lot more than economics.

[@sydneyfong]

As a software engineer I approve this message.

[@erikhoffmann1252]

That’s actually a good quote, very Socratic.

[@tomdivittis2688]

Thank you! This was tremendously valuable, and quite literally the only adult discussion regarding actual science of this issue i have heard since this all started.

[@jonathanduarte870]

Sabine.. You are by far the best in explanation in your videos.. you simply make the material easier to understand and that is something not everyone can do so thank you and keep it up..👍🇺🇸

[@gustavoboscardin9351]

The entire state of Amazonas, in which Manaus is the capital, is a special case of its own. While the capital itself has a relatively large population, most of the state is covered by dense rainforest, the size of several countries put together, and cut thru by an infinite number of rivers. Most communities are far less populated than the capital and very isolated. With air traffic shut down during the start of the pandemic, it was not possible to airlift supplies to the city. The only alternative route being by ships, which would obviously take weeks to months. Amazonas is one of the poorest states in Brazil, and to make things worse several communities are isolated. Far as I remember Manaus was the only city in the entire state equiped to deal with these kinds of emergencies, and therefore received patients from the entire state. A person diagnosed with covid in a remote town of Amazonas would take days to arrive in Manaus by ship, most likely being dead or near death by them. It is essentially a relatively large city in the "middle of nowhere". Even worse, the local population did not follow social isolation and the hospitals collapsed in about a week. It is a very particular case.

[@christopherellis2663]

Brasil is a good place to steer clear of. Imagine if it were the Congo, or the Malay Archipelago. Tropical but no paradise.

[@r-gart]

@@christopherellis2663 do you realize this town is 10 thousand kilometer from other regions in Brazil? With different biomes and population and specially infrastructure. Most of the country isn't even in a tropical climate lol

[@miranda9691]

@@christopherellis2663 Common, its not that bad ! At least there is no war, and things are bad because our currency is pegged to the dollar

[@antonijaume8498]

@@r-gart 10 thousand km? That would put you in Juneau, Alaska.

[@3rdrock]

@@r-gart I suspect you've got at least one to many zeros in that remoteness call and I'm pretty sure you don't understand what tropical means. Let me guess, you're a Trump supporter. Am I right ?

[@alohahoward1]

I would love to hear an update on your analysis of herd immunity. Love your videos.

[@GururajBN]

Very very instructive. Full of Sabine-esque pronouncements. “ We are like sheep”, “Simple answer is, it is complicated “! 👌

[@ProjectMillennium]

Keep On Keeping On Loving the Content You Give Us Sis! Live long And Prosper 🖖🏾

[@lalalafamille]

Love real intelligent high quality scientific information... bravo all is said : )

[@6g742]

Noinfo

[@lalalafamille]

Keep on the good work. Listening to your presentations I always feel I understand, and it make me feel more intelligent... this is really a great quality you have... (seriously) you have a great hability to communicate.... and by the way your singing is pretty good... seems you have all the marbles keep safe.

[@a.randomjack6661]

Merci beaucoup Sabine.

[@krisvq]

One thing you're really bang on.... we only have bad choices and they're not a matter of science, but value. I love your no nonsense position and core objectivity. Refreshing.

[@odalesaylor]

Sabine, I am totally impressed with your presentation of Here Immunity and what it means for all of us. Thank you!

[@Brank0]

Excellent, thank you for doing this!

[@catejames6453]

I hope you’re going to be a guest on Lex Fridman’s podcast sometime. I don’t know 🤷‍♀️ if you’d even be interested in that or not. I just listened to the episode with Manolis Kellis (podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/lex-fridman-podcast/id1434243584?i=1000496037480) who is a computational biologist at MIT. Pretty neat, the new applications developing out of our new technologies. It’s fascinating, but mentally tiring. Idk how you smarties keep your brain furnaces firing so hot all the time!

[@KishoreKumar-uz8ir]

I would definitely watch her doing a podcast with my boi Lex

[@halestorm123]

@Rocky Fjord You got any idea what the law of ice and fire is all about?

[@timothymiddleton6651]

I would watch!!

[@notsofancyqueen4794]

@Rocky Fjord I think people confuse science and capitalism

[@Posesso]

I

[@robertcameron-ellis6518]

Your final comments about the difference between science and ethics is a much needed insight into humanity’s decision making processes. Politicians and communities need this to enable sound decisions. Thank you.

[@ucigucimuci]

No-one has ever explained this so clearly, thanks.

[@christianlibertarian5488]

It is interesting that one of my best sources for information about US Covid immunology is a German physicist.

[@StephenJohnson-jb7xe]

It’s interesting to watch this two years on. I believe that your straight forward analysis holds up very well.

[@Eric-ye5yz]

I am so glad you got involved in this argument. I have a great deal of respect for your knowledge.

[@ZondyYT]

Scientists: " we don't know" Politicians: "ok, let's do this and call it scientific. No other opinion is allowed"

[@pwnmeisterage]

Proper science is objective. Subjective sources - like politicians, government agencies, corporations, industry lobbyists - will turn to science for answers, but they have biased interests and do not pay to publish objective results.

[@williamh4172]

It's even worse when politicians are puppets taking orders from people with agendas.

[@jv-lk7bc]

@@williamh4172 bruh. did you think there was ever any human born who doesn't have agendas? If so, its time for the funny farm for you.

[@jv-lk7bc]

ZondyYT, you seem unfamiliar with the definition of both scientist and politician. Scientists are debaters (and codifiers) of fact. Since all facts are always up for debate, their official position on ALL THINGS is "we don't know." That doesn't mean they can't give a very high value probability on whether the sun will rise tomorrow. Politicians are debaters (and codifiers) of opinion. That is their job. Sometimes science confronts them with a fact that forces them to act for the public good even when its unpopular. Those are the moments that separate the statesmen from the other sort.

[@williamh4172]

@@jv-lk7bc - you are clueless

[@arnesaknussemm2427]

Thank you for that Sabine. A very reasoned analysis of the current situation.

[@alb5271]

A truly balanced and insiteful commentary on herd immunity. Thank you, Sabine.

[@Torrriate]

Theoretically herd immunity is not the only way to let an infectious disease stop from spreading. Breaking down the herd into smaller infected groups and isolating the latter from the rest, until the virus has taken its natural cause of dying out within the infected groups - either with the specimen it killed or by getting killed via the immune system of the infected ones - should work as well.

[@mmattoso1]

Excellent, Sabine! A very good and impartial analysis on a subject that has been so much politicized!

[@Misuci]

Or it should be politicized within the right (scientific) context.

[@davidwuhrer6704]

It is political because it affects everyone. It is a public matter, hence in the sphere of politics, hence political. It is only a partisan issue because different political factions have different goals, and those goals inform their take on how to deal with this matter. The main problem is that career politicians talk about what they want done or avoided, but not why or to what effect. That is because they need both votes and money, and those objectives require mutually exclusive political promises.

[@stevestolarczyk8972]

“We need proper risk estimates with uncertainties. We do not need scientists who proclaim that science tells us what’s the right thing to do.” Most intelligent summary of the issue that I’ve heard from anyone. Hands down.

[@13Crickets1]

Excellent. I hope you stay with science and never go into politics. You are clear, concise, and highly informative. A true breath of fresh air when one is desperately needed!

[@4G12]

One thing that really boggles the mind is this extreme obsession with secondary immunity (antibodies) but practically ZERO emphasis on nutrition, health and the most important form of Human Immunity: Primary immunity. The functional human body is full of nonspecific foreign body killers and containment mechanisms that regularly kill and contain pathogens and keep things under control. In fact, the stronger one's primary immunity is, the less likely one is to develop antibodies at relatively low viral loads because the primary immune system contains and swats out pathogens before the secondary immune system is even needed.

[@billsticker]

Right on the money. Exactly so.

[@barontait4985]

So true

[@pedrolmlkzk]

Why dont people talk about health? Simple it is not profitable for the pharmaceutical industry

[@Wuppie62]

For decades there's a lot of talk, information and education in society and media about the importance of good nutrition, the issue of weight/obesity, and about ways of staying fit and healthy. Still, despite this, for many people it seems to be very difficult to (decide to) implement this advice and knowledge in their daily lives. It takes a structural change of lifestyle/behaviour. Besides this, there'll always be people who have a genetic or medical condition that makes them vulnerable, despite having a healthy lifestyle. Higher age is also a 'condition' which doesn't improve our health and immunesystem. And what about young people and athletes with a controller diet, the fittest people in the world, that still get ill from Covid? Ofcourse it's always good to try to have an optimal health as a basic starting point on the long run, but that's not something that makes everybody immune to mother natures newest aggressive viruses and all of its variants. And certainly not over night and acute. A vaccin does that way faster for most people. So even though good nutrition is always adviceable, it's not the immediate and end all remedy nor a definitive alternative for vaccines and other measures to reduce the number of contaminated and ill people, I think.

[@antoniomaglione4101]

Thank you for the great discussion. I haven't been able yet to attach a realistic value to any of my opinions to date, for the lack of proper data, just as you say. There are only bad options at the moment, yes.

[@antoniomaglione4101]

@@mello.b3373 I have an informed opinion naturally. What I meant, the current set doesn't allow for valid forecasts or projections.

[@antoniomaglione4101]

@@mello.b3373 This isn't the right platform for a clear debate. I wasn't considering the social aspects of the pandemic, but the value of some parameters (which Dr. Hossenfelder mentioned in her video in toto) to feed into a model I made. Without those number, opinions can't be verified, and any forecast is way off the mark. Enjoy your day...

[@angrydoggy9170]

@@mello.b3373 Saying SARS-CoV-2 has the same impact as influenza, is just about the definition of an unscientific statement.

[@angrydoggy9170]

@@mello.b3373 Did they now? That’s not what I’ve been reading on their official platforms.

[@angrydoggy9170]

@@mello.b3373 But if you don’t believe me,why don’t you check the CDC website? You’ll instantly notice your claims are false.

[@johnfraser6013]

Thank you Sabine for your review of Herd Immunity, as related to COVID. I rely upon professionals like you to help me stay abreast of the scientific angle. Your review is much appreciated ! 😁

[@martinzarzarmusic5338]

Thank you for this. It’s the clearest exposition i have heard on the subject do far.

[@patrick247two]

Thank you.

[@georgeassaz8307]

As the cases in Manaus are rising again to the levels of April and May, it is slightly more complicated, I guess

[@pedrolmlkzk]

Antibodies might have wore off

[@johnbarrett5229]

CASES? There is no accurate test for "Covid-19" George you half wit. Less TV, Instagram, facebook, etc. More research you half baked half wit!

[@nikonikolic1365]

Sabine is wonderful, wonderful person. I wished there were more people like Sabine on this planet.

[@nt1441]

Thank you, Sabine, once again for such a rational, unbiased summary. So rare and precious nowdays ...

[@normanstewart7130]

This is excellent. The authorities don't want any discussion of herd immunity, because they don't want any distraction from the lockdown strategy. We need an open, balanced debate.

[@wemblyfez]

As much as I attempt to gather information about covid and fighting the spread, this video gave me the most concise and clearly argued facts I've seen so far. Thanks Sabine for explaining a complicated situation so simply. Still not sure what the answers are but at least I have a better understanding of the facts.

[@nickgibson3451]

I love how I am always certain some of her video topics are going to have to be somewhat philosophically discussed but they end up being just the most objective discussion imaginable. The video title says it all!

[@jaywilson3930]

Wow, wow, wow! Very well done. This summary should serve science, decision makers and those wanting to know the state of overall confusion.

[@rev68]

I was just reading your book, Lost in Math while going to bed just now.

[@solapowsj25]

Lost sheep 🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑

[@Physicsandmathswithpraveen]

Did you find what ever was lost ?

[@dr.feelicks2051]

Nonsense gets another good spank. Great channel

[@dennistucker1153]

Very well done video. I learned something today. Thank you Sabine.

[@davidsherley2652]

Sabine - thank you for such a thoughtful exploration of the issue!

[@quite1enough]

Although I'm not from Brasil, im from extremely low income family of three, wel live with a 88 years old relative, and I really hope for long term effective vaccine in near future.

[@nekoeko500]

Maybe Great Barrington aproavh could be implemented in part of the first world, however I know it would not work in poor countries.

[@SidharthParanjape]

Thank you again for clarifying the difference between a value decision and scientific understanding of a situation.

[@gefginn3699]

Bless you Sabine.... and all your efforts and journeys

[@Tartersauce101]

Great video but we focus WAY too much on mortality rates - those that survive report permanently diminished sense of taste smell and/or diminished physical capacity.

[@oliverlaw02]

Like Boris Johnson and Donald Trump?

[@bushmonster1702]

Never had any problems like that. Convid 19 is a nothing burger.

[@judychurley6623]

"Herd Immunity", like "The Final Solution" is code for "Culling the Herd", as the Great Barrington Declaration basically acknowledges and tries to side-step: how do you identify and isolate? We don't know, but it sounds like justification for 'opening up'; we can do that, but 1) what will acceptable mortality total be; and 2) who decides?

[@bcubed72]

How well does your tinfoil hat fit ya? Remember, shiny side out, or you're just wasting your time.

[@judychurley6623]

@@bcubed72 Brilliant argument. I now see the error of my thinking. Thank you for clearing that up.

[@bcubed72]

@@judychurley6623 You honestly don't think you're being a trifle hyperbolic?

[@judychurley6623]

"Let it 'wash over' you and it will kill the weak and the genetically inferior; the rest of us will be better off" sounds frightening familiar. I might ask, in the spirit of the tinfoil hat: "How's your kool-aide taste" but name-calling isn't a good alternative to reason.

[@judychurley6623]

@@bcubed72 What is hyperbolic about 230,000+ US dead, 1 million+ world-wide - and counting - when people won't even wear a mask? We re talking about public policy; let's be sure of the ramifications of the choices being made.

[@johnmqueripel2367]

Thank you for attempting this explanation and being obviously extremely diplomatic, I get the sense that you wanted to say more.

[@DrinkingStar]

Well thought out and well stated. I hope you do a follow up video based on the new and additional data since you did this video.

[@AutisticThinker]

I deliver food, and have done so though the pandemic. I likely had COVID in March (rather than a flu); It was a week of mild symptoms followed by a week of intense symptoms, but I was not tested (too soon) and recovered at home. I have had at least eight 24-36 hour periods of "getting sick again" since.

[@vger5857]

But you did not stay in quarantaine?

[@space.youtube]

The 'economic distress' argument assumes that our economic paradigm is immutable, and that's just incorrect. Economic policy is a choice, it can be rewritten and redefined to better reflect the necessity of circumstance, as was done in WW2. Any pandemic response that prioritises economic activity above the lives of the citizenry will fail both. There are other options, all that's lacking is the will to concede their necessity and viability, but make no mistake, this is a policy decision.

[@charlesnelson5187]

Willing to bet that you're not in economic distress right now! lol

[@erickalvarez4525]

Sound like the Great Reset

[@space.youtube]

@@charlesnelson5187 At this point I'm not even sure you read past the first sentence, let alone understood it.

[@Misuci]

Dear Sabine, I really appreciate that you take your time, and accept the (political) risk of talking about the most important socio-economic conundrum we face today. I try to forward your presentation, and also the spirit of your presentation, that is to know (scientifically) what dangers we face, and what kind of alternatives we might have. And unfortunately, we as social creatures, we might also have to accept the possibilities of the rise of countless game theories. Some of those applied theories, or game-plans might leads to gains, and enormous windfalls, jackpots, for some fragments of some populations. At the same time other game-plans will cause enormous losses, even at unacceptable levels, and might lead to serious (armed) conflicts. Few politicians see how dangerous is the situation, the political climate, few can understand the level of instability ( + VUCA 1/2) And it is strange how successful aging of developed societies could lead to a disaster, as nobody is willing to give up anything. No willingness to sacrifice anything for the future, and for the stability. Thanks again for your great work. All mathematicians should notice your leadership, and also note how to handle politically sensitive issue with care.

[@rodrigoserafim8834]

Thank you for your sensible and temperate voice in these chaotic times. Too many (politicians and scientists) trying to mask their opinion as scientific "fact", and too many valid scientific inquiries being disregarded as inconvenient.

[@Cuanalo]

we need an objective assessment of any benefits actually achieved by the current draconian measures. Doing 'something rather than nothing' is never an obvious case, because you can as well be doing something to make things worse.

[@jengleheimerschmitt7941]

...good luck telling that to our exo-proctology department.

[@definitelynotofficial7350]

@@mello.b3373 Oh, good thing you proclaimed that, now we all know it is true for sure.

[@definitelynotofficial7350]

All you have to do is look at what measures various countries took and when they took them during the first wave, and what the results were. It is clear stricter and better measures taken early enough led to better outcomes almost always.

[@bushmonster1702]

@@definitelynotofficial7350 well that’s a lie.

[@Anonarchist]

"the aswer is simple... you do know calculus, don't you?"

[@stockraker1690]

Keep up the great work and thank you again for your time!

[@JamesThompson-oz8kh]

Thank you, Sabine. That was helpful and very informative.

[@joeschmoe4000]

This is a very fair analysis. I would like to add that as part of the value judgment you mention at the end, it's important to recognize that the cost of covid infection is more than just the deaths; it's also the long term defects in otherwise healthy people that will cause a burden on the healthcare system, as well as the opportunity costs of the economy lost as a result. For this reason, combined with the difficulty of setting a reliable standard of measuring herd immunity, I personally believe the Great Barrington Declaration to be misguided at best and harmful at worst. That, and the fact that it accepted many fake names onto its petition, while the opposing John Snow Memorandum only included verified health professionals and scientists. However, if new data or testing methods were released, I would be open to changing my stance; I'm just not convinced that will occur in the near future.

[@SabineHossenfelder]

Yes, that's why I mentioned long-term health problems of COVID infections are a factor to take into account.

[@joeschmoe4000]

@@SabineHossenfelder omg the legend replied to me

[@moltimondi]

The Great Barrington Declaration reminds me of the Drake equation the values for many of its factors are so highly conjectural that it does not seem possible to come up with the conclusion that "focused protection" is preferable to lockdown mesures.

[@bushmonster1702]

Lockdown is a mistake and the idea of controlling a virus in the modern age age is sheer hubris.

[@ernestmorgan2886]

Sabine, Your timing couldn't have been better regarding your take on Herd Immunity and how little we still do not know to date. Your ability and or willingness (I believe it's both) to cut through the BS in most topics is refreshing when one considers how much misinformation is really out there. I appreciate how you did this in your assessment as it pertains to the "Great Barrington Declaration" where you've clarified that "It's right that arguing for Focused Protection is not sound science. But that is not because it's not sound. It's because it's not science. It's a value decision! I couldn't agree more. I've been watching most of your videos from "Follow The Science? Nonsense I Say!" (Love it) through to this one of course. Thank you for your targeted approach on so many of these topics, to many of which to list here.

[@nickmagrick7702]

great stuff Sabine, very thorough

[@gigspigs]

"We do not need scientists who proclaim that science tells us what's the right thing to do." Truth.

[@piggypiggypig1746]

The Guardian' position is most definitely driven by U.S. politics.

[@mmattoso1]

The Guardian is not to be taken seriously... 🙄

[@weldonoliver3585]

Thank you for asking the right questions and even questioning the answers.

[@thomasnaas2813]

Thank you. Nice to hear clear thinking at a time when so many in positions of authority are not thinking clearly or just flat out lying.

[@buzz-es]

Careful, all this real science can get you "canceled".

[@dosomething3]

Discuss the average age killed by covid19.

[@ahothabeth]

Which average? Mean, median or mode?

[@TerranigmaQuintet]

@@mello.b3373 But they still do though. At a lower rate sure. Problem is, not everyoen who seems healthy are. A ton of people carry on in life with hidden ailments that may not be noticable but coudl play a role in your covid recovery process.

[@KeithCooper-Albuquerque]

Excellent video, Sabine! And you look marvelous!

[@KevinBalch-dt8ot]

Wow! - What a balanced summary. You’ve got a “like” and a new subscriber.