Home Prices Will Come Down Says Analyst Who Called The 2007-2008 Financial Crisis | Meredith Whitney

Meredith Whitney, CEO of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, discusses the state of the US economy and the consumer.
Last year, she did not expect a recession because of the strong consumer. Today, she describes the economy as “bifurcated” because higher-earning households are driving consumer spending.
Whitney also explores the housing market and predicts a supply glut that will lead to a decline in home prices, making it more affordable for younger generations. But don't worry - it wont' be like the 2007-2008 phenomenon.
She delves into the demographic changes and challenges posed by an aging population, particularly in terms of long-term care.
Whitney also addresses the fiscal position of states and the nation, emphasizing the need for a balanced budget and the potential risks of relying on foreign buyers for debt.
Links:
meredithwhitneyllc.com/
Timestamps:
0:00 Introduction
01:05 Macro view, bifurcated consumer
04:19 Sentiment
05:58 Housing market and homeownership
09:21 Timeline for home prices
10:38 Demographic changes and solutions
12:31 Demographic trends and aging Americans
20:31 National debt and foreign buyers
22:46 Possibility of a balanced budget
23:44 Fear and impact of research calls
32:11 Meredith Whitney Advisory Group
#economy #housingmarket #housing

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Hey everyone! I hope you enjoy this episode featuring legendary analyst, Meredith Whitney. Please join me in the comments section with your feedback. Be sure to hit the 'like' 👍button and subscribe ☑to the channel. I appreciate your support. 💙Julia

[@omerarduc7371]

Great interview ladies! Big fan of both of you!

[@ShinobiShaman]

They've been saying this since 2020. If the larger economy collapses, & there's massive layoffs, it'll happen. & that just might happen. The powers that be need that collapse, because they want to implement a CBDC.

[@rrpreds]

nice interview Julia. Good data on housing . Fine to discuss the ( great) GFC call on Citi. But you left out her really bad call on the Muni mkt in '10/11. She was on 60 minutes; believe there was cover story in Barron's ( ?? ), certainly on CNBC -- see the history. That should be noted when she talks about states now, and the 'book she published' 10 yrs ish ago. That's a major reason of why she left the scene for awhile. ( and she never owned that bad call on muni mkt being #1 threat to US financial mkts/economy ).

[@losojedas60]

Her passion and dedication to her work and analytics is amazing. She's now one of my favorites.

[@bryansmith2824]

She says don’t buy a home now be patient until prices come down. Then follows that by saying it will take 15 years for prices to come down… yikes

[@mattseverance8176]

Yeah. Life happens. When you need a house to raise a family you’re not waiting 15 years.

[@georgekazanchyan4976]

@@mattseverance8176If homes purpose is to serve as a shelter and living space for families, then this country got its priorities fucked up by allowing the prices to increase so high so fast. Simple federal laws can be created to prevent home prices rises and immediate price drops of home prices. U.S. has always got a fucked up economy, hopefully its entire economy will crash and lose its world dominance. If I can't have it, no one should have it!

[@askme78232]

Macro vs Micro…so how long will your mortgage be?

[@BPoweredLove]

She didn't mean 15 years to BEGIN coming down, she means 15 years to find the final bottom.

[@arturodelvalle3457]

If prices come down after 15-years that's A Very Unlikely Economic catastrophic event.

[@somchai9033]

She was right once 16 years ago and wrong since.

[@markme4]

Wrong on what ?

[@rrpreds]

@@markme4 very wrong on Muni market 10+ yrs ago. She had made a big name in GFC ( the Citi call in '07 that was discussed here) . She came out and said there would ALOT of defaults by Muni issuers ( ie , Local gov'ts). it DIDNT happen, she never really owned it, and she faded from the scene for 10 yrs.

[@rishigupta1738]

Another excellent guest Julia. Meredith’s analysis and insights are top notch.

[@innny8536]

Boomers will not have an incentive to downsize. If the home they have to buy is more expensive than the one they already own.

[@Maddie-lv5sg]

My husband and my son both earn over 70,000 and I can tell you with these expenses we can not save. I have two homes and will not sell them but leave them to my kids. I am 68 so she is correct about the age owned properties. But I am not selling because I know my kids can not save enough for a down payment and have to leave them our homes.

[@thecaptain8773]

Meredith had her 15 minutes of fame and then what? Well if you read the wiki she is an oracle that even started her own hedge fund! But it says nothing about the collapse of said hedge fund, Kenbelle Capital LP. The financial world is full of boom-bust analysts who don't know with any certainty anything more than the next guy. They just hang up a sign, call themselves "gurus" and then off they go.

[@ebeyslough]

Absolutely the opposite will happen. Housing prices will continue to spike given the lack of inventory, and the unwillingness of sellers to set a reasonable price. There is so much equity in many of these homes that most sellers have the option to not sell if their expected prices are not met by the market. The downward pressure just isn’t here. As long as the jobs and stock markets are still hot then there is no price regression.

[@scott3202]

Not with affordability at a record lows, can't keep going up if wages aren't and they aren't. Examine the unemployment data, the majority are part time jobs and government. Average income needed to buy average home is now in the six figures.

[@d1amonddbw]

Wow! Brilliant, no BS Convo. Thanks to u both!

[@michaelstock9351]

Fantastic interview. I haven't heard from her in a long time. I remember her interview on CNBC in 2007 when she said, "I hope you like your house because you'll be stuck with it for a long while once this market crashes."

[@acornsucks2111]

How many other crashes has she spoke of?

[@BPoweredLove]

@@acornsucks2111 There aren't any housing market crashes for her to speak of. The GFC is it since the Great Depression.

[@davep6989]

I wish MW would do more podcasts - thank you for bringing her on JLR!

[@ReportsOnHousing]

Excellent video. I am a housing analyst, and her addition of inventory from downsizing older generations will be outmatched by the pent-up demand from the underserved, patiently waiting for millennial and Gen Z generations. When demand outpaces supply, there is simply too much pressure on pricing. Her theory doesn't hold water from a housing analyst's perspective.

[@InOrlando]

If rates go into the 4% there will be tons of movement in real estate. She’s dead wrong.

[@webdeuce]

Keep going Meredith … whole system is now Ponzi ….. you saved my finances in 2008 …… tricky times

[@SweetNeoCon407]

This is depressing for the younger generations. I'm glad I already own a home and pretty close to retiring and checking out of this joke of an economy.

[@Laketexomaliving]

Here here.

[@MarkShinnick]

Depressing.... indeed.

[@bigbanknewyork3655]

Newlyweds or college grads (25-35) are screwed. Starter homes are now at $600K most places.

[@davidlauer6434]

Meredith Whitney and Danielle DeMartino-Booth would make an awesome analytical team. . .

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Would love to do a panel!

[@housingrevolution5237]

Interesting no mention made of how the presence of real estste investors has inflated and hyperinflated land & housing prices. She speaks of housing going down over the long term, but if we continue to allow investors to buy up that supply, it's pretty tough to make a case prices will go down to reasonable levels.

[@markme4]

Vote Trump

[@InfinitelyCurious]

I really appreciate that Meredith stayed in tune with her intuition and that she backs it up with raw data. Thank you both for an insightful and thought provoking interview. Much appreciated.

[@free-qe6wx]

She is one of the few people that gets it. The downward pressure on the real estate market will only increase from here, reach an enormous, sustained peak in the 2030's, and the whole move will last perhaps into the late 2040's as the remaining Silent and Boomers reach end of life care stage and eventually pass away. By far and large, their (mostly) Gen X children will have no choice but to liquidate their parents real estate portfolios. First to pay for the end of life care for their parents (which has already begun to skyrocket in cost beyond belief), second to settle their parents final expenses/debts, and lastly whatever is left either goes to cash or the low risk part of the stock/bond portfolio. Gen X-ers typically have much less or no private pensions coming to them, SS is a disaster, and they underearned their entire careers and are rather light in the 401k and savings in general. Gen X will not want to hold depreciating (vs inflation, risk free rate) assets. They need the cash, and I suspect this will reach a point, likely in the mid- to late-2030's, where it won't even matter how low home prices go. It will be more about shedding the liability of having to pay the insanely high property taxes, home insurance, repairs, etc., in a market that is not going to become appreciating (vs inflation, risk free rate) any time soon. The only thing that can negate this future would be a gigantic baby boom starting right now, meaning, an overnight tripling of the birth rate. And that won't completely negate this from happening, but it will dampen it some and shorten the period mostly from the back end. Millennials by far and large will not receive the Great Wealth transfer, or better said they are not next in line for it. 50% of the personal wealth is with remaining Silent and the Baby Boomers (the older half of the "Boomers"), which are the parents of Gen X. Jones (younger half of the "Boomers") and older half of Gen X are the parents of Millennials. That group is far less wealthy right now.

[@mackakiwinz4353]

Very well explained and in full agreement. Here in New Zealand reverse mortgage market for equity wealthy boomers and cash flow poor is accelerating often without the children knowing according to my source. The boomers use the snowballing higher interest rate debt to fund cruises, overseas holidays and new vehicles. Heartland Bank here specialise in it and have been hiring more staff to cope with demand last time I spoke to one of their lenders.

[@jorge1170xyz]

Very astute observations. the Boomers enjoyed the greatest carnival ride of all human history... a 40 year-long slide down the "happy side" of interest rate mountain. It was like a house party for them, but one where whenever the cops came near, the driveway just got longer and longer. Well, now with interest rates most likely starting a multi-decade upward slope, the current generations won't get to experience that interest rate euphoria at all, but maybe their kids and grandkids will (after a world war or two). So almost all asset appreciation moving forward will be due to inflation and inflation alone. Whoop-dee-doo.

[@free-qe6wx]

@@mackakiwinz4353 This is not just a US problem. This is a worldwide collapse in the birth rate, and it is projected to continue to collapse the rest of this century. Reverse mortgages have never made more sense, actually, because when this bubble pops we will not likely see these valuations (adjusted for inflation) again for many decades at the minimum. So what if the bank keeps the property 10 years from now if that property is worth half (adjusted for inflation) what it is today. It makes no difference. Your inheritor loses either way. Reverse mortgages had a massive spike in the 3 years leading up to the GFC in the US. In nominal terms, it took about 10-12 years for that home's value to return to where it was when it was reversed mortgaged. But in real terms, meaning adjusted for inflation, it took more like 15 years but that only happened because of the pandemic craziness. If we had not had the massive fiscal spending and near hyperinflation that followed, those homes reversed mortgaged back in 2005-2008 would be worth about half now (adjusted for inflation) vs then. RM's have started rising sharply in the US in the last couple of years, and you can expect that to continue. When those people die and the house goes to the bank, the heirs will decline to purchase it and it will get liquidated ASAP.

[@Laketexomaliving]

Or if the lein holder decides to foreclose because you got backed up on taxes.... this is a silent epidemic I read last year.. someone in PA lost their home to $10.00 in taxes unpaid.. which is an extreme case but there are others where the lein holder is notified if taxes are late or unpaid... banks? I'm seeing more like title loan sharks who are doing this, not banks.. watch out geezers these lenders may have no respect.. read your contracts!!

[@free-qe6wx]

​@@Laketexomaliving Not paying your property taxes will eventually result in a lien against your property no matter if you own the house outright, a traditional mortgage, or a reverse mortgage. You have to pay your taxes, obviously, and risking losing a house over $10 is an incredibly stupid thing to do. But just to clarify, I am not promoting RM's. It is one of many options available to you as you approach, enter, or have entered retirement. I am only pointing out that market timing with RM's is very important.

[@donaldgreene3105]

I love your channel because of your excellent guests and also because of your interview technique which allows for complete answers to your questions

[@gregweiss9359]

Great guest Julia, and great show! I hadn't seen Meredith Whitney in a long time. She's still a relevant figure in our world. I lived and worked through the GFC in this industry and remember her prescient calls well.

[@rentslave]

They'll have to come down AT LEAST 50 per cent to make them affordable.

[@jackjohnson9449]

Housing is going to get obliterated and very quickly, not 15 years.

[@Dave-qi3ft]

When?

[@jackjohnson9449]

When people lose their jobs@@Dave-qi3ft

[@markme4]

Why ?

[@mommom3172]

I just checked Lis Pendens filed in my county in thr last month. Filings are up. People are very financially strained. Those homes will come on the market...and airBNB homes when my state regulates them.

[@JONINOTORUS]

Great interview!!! Julia is probably one of the most skillful interviewers online. Her future is so bright--as long as she can stay away from corrupted media and corporations. Grow your own brand; with time, only the sky is the limit--even for a Tar Heel!

[@markl1473]

People are buying homes like crazy still. South of Boston and north of Cape Cod, it seems like everything is pending. It doesn't seem like this insanity will ever end.

[@rociobermudez5026]

Add to the List SoCal , where there is 5 to 10 buyers for 1 home and thus thousands leaving CA 😢😢 what i want to know is where are the buyers coming from in expensive socal markets

[@markl1473]

@@rociobermudez5026 Believe me I know this all too well. I live in Burbank. I just happened to be looking at houses in Massachusetts where I am from. I have no idea where these buyers are coming from or how they have so much money to throw at a house.

[@giniaa2707]

Older people have spent more time working and paying off mortgage. So, it makes sense that people over 60 own more because they have worked their whole lives to have bought a house. I couldn't have afforded a house in my thirties.

[@kellis773]

Im over 60, and I did downside. Although the rental market is so frickin strong, I decided not to sell, and I rented it out in one day.

[@deebrown7160]

Wow

[@sudo2998]

A brave woman and an independent thinker! Thanks for the great work Meredith!

[@thecaptain8773]

Brave? How??

[@fractionaldebtisfraud2187]

@@thecaptain8773 It's when some bankers apparently commit suicide by being thrown out of a 15 storey window by accident. (And don't ask me for photo evidence, I wasn't there.)

[@stevenshorten6184]

@@thecaptain8773 Paid influencer or family member.

[@thomasmanning829]

Prices will come down when owners realize they can no longer afford to keep their homes, even if that mean they must lose money.

[@SkipDulcet]

excellent guest and interview! thanks

[@asafprivman]

Amazing interview! Thank you!

[@davidshaw7521]

It is not Econ 101 that more housing with become available on the market as the predominately older owners continue to age. Housing will continue to be bought out by corporations as forcing younger people to rent. The resulting impoverishment will ensure tight supply in the future as the Rentier class triumphs.

[@michaelwaters8408]

Thank you Julia. A very credible guest with interesting statistics. I live in UK where we tend to follow trends set in USA .both good and bad. The future looks challenging for all of us , young and old ; however forewarned is forearmed and sensible people will at least see the warning signs and plan accordingly......

[@Youknowwhatscoming]

An awesome and intelligent guest. Subbed finally ❤

[@pauldelray5839]

Great episode. Issue. Next time Meredith returns. The two highest costs facing any household regardless of their age or economic tier is transportation and housing. Affect all. This hidden inflation that is affecting consumers is the insurance required for both. The highest drivers of the current inflation, according to the Fed, is rapidly rising and extremely high insurance rates. As discussed about the Boomers down sizing and wanting smaller housing Meredith ignored the insurance rates. Many cannot move because their insurance on the new home will increase and this has nothing to do with age. The largest amount homes built were from the 1980's to 2010. These were in places that did not have large amounts of people. Resulting nature disasters like earthquakes, forest fires, floods and rising ocean levels now have a greater economic impact on a much larger percent of the population. Insurance companies want to recoup those losses and are leaving in mass from states most exposed. Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Louisiana, Minnesota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota and Washington. Places were old people would like to retire. So once they arrive, surprise. Their car and housing insurances rise. But house insurance might not even be available unless you pay a much higher rate or go without it. Younger households with smaller down payments on cars and housing equally pay higher rates which is required insurance because of their lower equity in both. Worst are the bundling programs from greedy auto insurers. They leave first. So car insurance is also rising because the same companies are exposed to massive natural disaster housing losses. Rising insurance rates on transportation and housing is the attempt by companies and their re-insurance companies to claw back profits at the expense of the consumer. Something that needs addressing by both private and public companies. Perhaps, requiring government intervention at the local, state and national level. Please bring this up to Meredith next time you meet or with other economists on the show.

[@DustinLives]

Great interview! 🎉

[@Mr94Integra]

Whitney is also the wife of WWF wrestling legend- John Layfield !

[@davidchang8428]

Meredith Whitney is one smart lady.

[@jimmymichaud2129]

I think she’s wrong with saying that the home prices are gonna come down because a lot of these homes that will be coming on the market have huge reverse mortgage valuations on them so the banks would have to take massive loss

[@Millenniup]

This was awesome. Thanks ladies.

[@iQeLabs]

Great show

[@HipHopCantSaveMe]

Interesting insights!

[@bossu2005]

The 35 year old who SHOULD ALREADY have been able to afford a home but cannot now must wait 15 years (when they are FIFTY) to see the price decline predicted.... OH ISN"T THAT WONDERFUL!!! Think the U.S.A. will actually exist as a country in 15 years???

[@Youknowwhatscoming]

No homes no families no new children being born will end badly

[@BradSabako]

Yes

[@nicholasscholten4838]

That is not the case. Prices will not continue to run away. If you find a location then you can take the time to find the right house.

[@CertifiedDCPro]

@@Youknowwhatscomingwhy do you think leadership is allowing illegals to enter the country without resistance.. young families, labor, military enlistment, taxes, votes, etc. current Americans will be no more than slaves of a police state.. greatest country on earth 😂

[@deebrown7160]

Married two income families can afford 400-500k home.

[@user-ns2gd2ch7y]

These home prices are way too high, don't do it! Just wait regardless of what people say, it will be a correction at some point. The longer they take to let it happen the worse it will be. I personally feel they wont to let it build up bad enough to the point when it do happen, it will pave the way for CBDC. People will beg for it, then the true plan will begin.

[@kevinconroy6606]

Prices will come down if and only if the Fed raises rates to where they should be … around 9%

[@johngrath9773]

I agree. She is good at explaining.

[@CatsandDogs-qn3ij]

Ms. Whitney's statement on the federal budget being balanced in 2000 is incorrect. Federal Debt increased from 1999 to 2000. Due to the spending of the surplus FICA tax. The social security trust fund received IOUs from the US Treasury. View the debt numbers for yourself. Excellent interview.

[@peterbedford2610]

Meredith also said that many local municipalities wete going to have to go BK in 2011.

[@gabegaldos]

Waiting 10 -15 years isn’t a great idea if you compare to rent cost. Best time to get into home ownership is when you are ready to afford a mortgage payment, it’s almost always a better investment than renting a home.

[@robertwalker-gc1ds]

It's very difficult for me to believe that you don't have the wherewithal to purchase a home

[@jverderber]

The FED will end up buying all the debt just like Japan. YCC forever

[@leecaryer2569]

Julia, I owe you an apology. My first thought was, "Just another pretty blonde with no ideas." Then I listened to a show - good guest, with an interviewer who asked solid questions and let the guest answer. So, keep up the good work; I'll be watching. Also, a book titled "Tailspin" was written in 2018 by Steven Brill. It addresses the world Whitney is describing - bifurcated, because the rich get richer and everyone else gets poorer. It is on sale at Amazon, and he would be a good guest.

[@crouchhill]

Excellent podcast 😊

[@RadicallyFRUGAL]

I studied Great Depressions, Hyperinflations in the context of 50 to 60+year Kondratiev Waves. We are in deep trouble. Doug W Asbury Park

[@BradSabako]

Well, proof positive… you studied.

[@cacaoperesoso732]

Please keep up with your interviews as you offer intelligence to the world

[@johnj1694]

Will we ever have a BALANCED BUDGET? The convention of states is working on that about 20 have passed and another 10 or so have it in legislation under Article V of the constitution. Article V of the U.S. Constitution gives states the power to call a convention to propose amendments. It takes 34 states to call the convention and 38 to ratify any amendments that are proposed. Our convention would only allow the states to discuss amendments that, “limit the power and jurisdiction of the federal government, impose fiscal restraints, and place term limits on federal officials.”

[@thomassteeley9734]

I find it hilarious, not really, that every financial talking head says there is no crisis or any on the horizon. Julia just gets done explaining very few in her generation can buy a house, ATH single males, record low birth rates, two generations ago, boomers, bought houses in their twenties, easily. With one income. This is the crisis!!! They define crisis as their worthless assets going down in price. That would not be a crisis. That's what needs to happen so younger working people can really have a chance.

[@pete7674]

Painfully fascinating. Many analysts offer the problem, and few state the solution. Solutions are painful, and that's yet another problem. Good interview, thanks.

[@johndegrummond5130]

Meredith Whitney. Great get Julia.

[@stephtraveler7378]

Great interview. Very smart people. However: The issue in the housing market is too many middle class people own multiple homes. Much of them leveraged and most sitting empty. We are seeing a contraction or failure of the Buy, Borrow, Die passive wealth technique.

[@CO8848_2]

She didn't call crap in 2007. As someone who invovled in shorting housing back then, Meredith had nothing to do with any housing market prediction back then, and she's clueless now.

[@nowyouknowrealestate5703]

I followed her in 2006 and on. She’s nailed it again!

[@cdsersd2d]

Yes, she'll be right in the next 15 years for sure.

[@scepisle4970]

This is why we Bitcoin.... 😊

[@JonathanHerz]

I remember she was so great back around the 2008 crash. Great to see her back on air (although I guess it may be a bit of an ill omen 🤨)

[@rladuc6618]

Wow!

[@detectiveofmoneypolitics]

Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is following this very informative content cheers Frank 😊👍

[@bbustin1747]

The FED is going to find out that the inflation is not fully transitory lower but higher They will have to decide save the American economy by raising rates or save their political masters in DC But they can’t have both. This isn’t the 2008 GFC. inflation is a bigger monster of their own making

[@charlottebrigham2581]

Love this thank you Meredith! Concerned about the Silver Tsunami... before the Pandemic there was a shift toward downsizing, then with the Pandemic people upsized to create the Group Family Home. Now we will be on the downsize trend again, not sure what will happen to the 7,000+ sf home...

[@billcarney829]

Maybe if we began this November to vote every incumbent OUT OF OFFICE we could get support for a balanced budget.

[@difigfs]

Rand Paul; Thomas Massie; Justin Amash; Mike Lee; Tom McClintock. The American voter IS the problem.

[@jesusjaumot8799]

Recesion with deflation will increase affordable housing inventory.

[@uaeio]

Labor cost up, material cost up, land cost up… has, home prices will go down… only if people will get smaller and homes will get half their usual size. ;)

[@sheilagrace565]

Have not encountered one single Honest person, directly involved in the GFC that Wasn't traumatized when that went down. The actions leading up to the fallout defied logic and self preservation (banks). No one seemed to care until it was irreversable. I totally get Meredith's reluctance at the time. Heading to her site to sign up. Three women to pay attention to; Melody Wright, Daniel DiMartino Booth and Meredith all data driven, all Honest.

[@robertharrelson5024]

A couple of variables on the price of housing that I did not hear mentioned are immigrarion and investors both foreign and domestic. I do see the aging of boomers putting downward pressure on the price but is it enough to more than offset those other factors?

[@mikemccloy]

sorry to disagree, in the Phoenix area, home inventories are still very low. That keeps the demand for resold housing high despite high rates. Resale homes are still increasing in value.

[@jorge1170xyz]

Check Maricopa and Buckeye. Prices are slipping steadily there due to an abundance of new homes. At some point, when the undesirable exurbs become cheap enough, people decide they can live with the commute and the inner zones are forced to compete for those buyers. Of course, some affluent zones are always semi-immune, but after the California exodus dies down and builders finish catching up (many already have), Phoenix will go back to being Phoenix. No different than what happened with automobiles during covid...they are on their way to going full circle.

[@jorge1170xyz]

Pay attention to what she is saying - great times for the top half + serious hardship for the lower half = no "official" recession showing up in the stats. Yet, many Americans will feel as though we are in one anyway (and many already feel it, hence Biden's numbers). That "bifurcated" economy is NOT an accident, that is the very predictable result of printing money incessantly in an effort to deny the credit cycle it's due for year, after year, after year. Everyone loves borrowing from the future, but no one loves when the future comes knocking, as it did in September 2019. Thankfully, the miracle microbe gave politicians the green light they desperately wanted to print money to infinity and beyond. So the more they print (to loud applause), the ore the asset rich get richer, the more the asset poor get poorer (due to the inevitable inflation) and the more the middle class shrinks. Sadly, that's always been the way of the world, since a large middle class is actually an historical aberration that requires constant vigilance/maintenance/discipline/austerity to keep intact. We have had none of those "adult" things for decades...just ridiculously low interest rates that have fostered a permanent speculative mindset. I actually disagree with her assessment about home prices going down for 15 years. I think she underestimates the ability of the homebuilders to accelerate the process by overbuilding and starting price wars (at the same time that the Boomer inventory tsunami she fears happens in the background). For that reason, I personally see a maximum of seven years of decline before the government's inflationary salvage operation really kicks into high gear and "rescues" asset prices (though only a rescue in nominal terms). So, in my opinion, 2026/27 is probably the year young folks would want to aim for to purchase a home (I'm Gen X, so only looking forward to investment opportunities myself). Incredible guest.

[@Youknowwhatscoming]

Such an articulated response. Well done.

[@sandrafrances]

I believe more than 10% of seniors can afford assisted living or health aide.

[@davidcpugh8743]

A practicing economist and former portfolio manager, she is nothing but prescient.

[@LTXsp]

"Haven't had a balanced budget since 2000" Let's see, what happened in 2001? Oh ya, everything changed. Huge budgetary (and unclassified funding) of Security State apparatus...and endless wars (war on terror) that continues to this day. That's a lot of money!

[@sheilagrace565]

This is absolutely fascinating! God I love #'s and hard data to sweep away all the emotional gnashing of teeth and for a basis of strategy.

[@omnimoeish]

Her own evidence contradicts her thesis. She starts by saying there's massive pent up demand for homes from the 38 year old and under demographic due to deferred home buying due to being priced out of the market, and then says there's going to be no forced selling due to record home equity levels and record low interest rates on those who still have mortgages (most of the boomers own their home free and clear), but then out of nowhere has a theory that "there will be an orderly home price decline just because of the math, supply and demand". What? You just said the main first time home buyers demographic has absolutely wild pent up demand. The first time home buyers ARE the demand and its off the charts. Even if older people are going to trade down (and that's not certain, it seems like most are aging in place), that's not going to put supply on the market. That actually is supply neutral at best, but ironically it actually puts even MORE buying pressure on the lower end of the house price spectrum which is what most first time buyers are competing for already. Hilariously she goes on to say that 90% of seniors don't have the money for assisted living centers and thus will be stuck in their homes longer. She literally has all the facts but comes to opposite conclusion of what her own data is telling her. She then goes on to talk about how the government will be forced to print massive amounts of money to fund unfunded liabilities for these seniors which is where inflation comes from. She also rightly points out there's no political will to run a balanced budget from anyone with power running the country of any party at any level and surely the money printers will get ramped up to 11 at the first signs of problems. This is the crux of why the housing market is so expensive and there's literally no inkling these tendencies are changing. Biden is trying to pass a $7.3 trillion budget as we speak. She also sees steady above 2% inflation ahead which would be very unlikely to coincide with a housing price decline. I'm not sure how she squares that concept. I think she kind of mentioned it at the beginning but there's little that will stop hedge funds and large deep pocketed whales from buying up housing stock going forward, that trend is likely to continue. The only thing I can think of is that when her brain is trying to figure out what happens next it is reverting to what happened in the GFC when she was right last time and prices came down but those were very different circumstances. These days it takes over a year to foreclose and the pool of home owners are in TOO GOOD of financial shape after the lending policies got tightened up post GFC 15 years ago and now there's almost no motivated sellers. I follow tons of realtors and I hardly hear any talking about motivated sellers. The fact is that at the end of the day housing prices double roughly every 12 years along with the national debt (not coincidentally), the only sound conclusion is that unless there's reason to think will see a major change in that trend, staying on the sidelines hoping prices will come down - as a lot of people have for the last 4 years - is "risky" at best, I would say probably falls more into the category of "foolish" as there's no data giving you reason to do so. What happens if the Fed starts marching interest rates back down? People are going to come out of the woodwork to buy up real estate ASAP knowing they can refinance but they'll want to buy before prices skyrocket.

[@user-cd1yr5sm5t]

WON'T

[@InOrlando]

People over 50 are not downsizing with sub 3% mortgages, lol. The FED will have to ease on those interest rates to release that inventory.

[@chucklohn522]

I followed three people pretty closely in the 2008 crisis. Whitney, Reggie, Middleton, and Nouriel Roubini. Reggie is only focused on crypto now, which is a shame. And Roubini who is now a good friend of mine is not making any radical predictions. I think he thinks the USD will slowly value over a long period of time, which I disagree with. Nobody is predicting which domino will fall first

[@mlbonfox8199]

That’s why your still confused

[@forte9910]

the part at the end about data is interesting. Unfortunately there are many ways to interpret data, especially in real time, and only one right answer at the end...

[@pauldelray5839]

Meredith idea of spending being a national security risk because foreign countries are buying treasuries is wrong. Regular people are buying the most Treasuries at auction on record, according to US data. Money-market funds are really big buyers of Treasury bills. And because there’s been so much demand for money-market funds, there’s also been lots of demand for bills. Foreign bidders have started to step in again as the Fed steps back from bond purchases. Those purchases aren’t active quantitative easing, as that happens in secondary markets, but replacing some of bonds on their balance sheet that are maturing. US dollar is the world's currency because we don't care what happens to the dollar and will not intervene for self interest reasons. We pay all debts. All the time. All countries know this and find benefit. Budget deficits is a concern. Congress is charge of that. Tell Congress to stop being dysfunctional or vote them out. Checks and balances.

[@mackakiwinz4353]

Smart lady and down to earth. Great interview thank you both. We certainly require a residential property reprice to give the young opportunities to form strong and resilient families as opposed to the authoritarian requirement of creating more ant people.

[@JorgeOrpinel]

If what she said is true, only McMansions no one wants will come down in price but all that old people downsizing would actually put upward pressure on small "starter" home prices.

[@jorge1170xyz]

Markets generally don't work that way though. All categories knock on the door of the ones above and below them.

[@bossu2005]

The Invaders will get their homes. The price of the starter homes will continue to rise until the country is consumed by those in power and their barbarian army.

[@markme4]

People will want the larger homes if the prices come down

[@mommom3172]

A lot of those people move to 55+ communities

[@markme4]

@@mommom3172 Oh now we're "those people" 😆

[@asteriskesque]

This might have been the dumbest thing I've seen in a while. She said housing is going to get more affordable for newcomers entering the market because millions of older people will be downsizing into smaller homes. The young people who can't afford small starter homes won't be able to afford those larger homes! And as older people downsize into smaller homes, they will eat up the supply of smaller homes, pushing prices of smaller homes UP, not down. Sure, there may end up being a glut of large expensive homes on the market 15 to 20 years from now, as she suggests, but those millions of people she expects to see downsizing will create more competition for smaller homes. I'm guessing this woman is rich and disconnected from the reality of anyone who isn't rich. TL:DR: This lady predicts cheaper housing for anyone who can afford the top of the market, but she doesn't realize those millions of downsizers will create increased competition for smaller homes, pushing those prices higher. I'm surprised the host, who said she wants to own a home, didn't notice when her guest said lower prices are coming because millions of people will be downsizing into the homes she, the host, already can't afford. Oof.

[@vincentmurphy9252]

How could it ever balance budget??? Impossible unless they go debt jubilee- the other way is US go debt 65-80 trillion then it implodes

[@kingmike40]

I guess living in a tent isn't so bad. The only way the housing gets more affordable will be after a major economic decline such as a depression or a major war.

[@davidcpugh8743]

Whitney very astute lady.

[@askme78232]

Citi bank taught the US govt how to restate and obfuscate trends.

[@Njc451]

I have to pleasantly disagree with Meredith. Housing is also being used as a hedge against inflation and in major metros such as NY and LA, there are foreign buyers that are storing their wealth in US real Estate. With that said, her thesis is sound but there is no incorporation of inflation protection and foreign buyers. The math is then skewed with these two factors weighted into the math of future home prices.

[@mackakiwinz4353]

Certainly agree about the hedge also here in New Zealand the no bank deposit insurance and bail in laws creates distrust in bank deposit security with many land banking homes. Also most puppeticians here have property portfolios that they will do anything required to attempt to keep inflating.

[@jorge1170xyz]

The problem is that houses have far outpaced the rate of inflation for 20+ years. That outpacing was almost all due to 40 glorious years of ever declining interest rates. Now that interest rates may stay far higher than 3% for many years (some economists say we could be starting an arduous 30 year UP-cycle) coupled with the fact that we have unfavorable demographics, then homes probably won't be the inflation hedges they were 1980-2022 and that foreigners still think will be. Of course inflation will come to rescue, eventually, but it is very easy for me to see a multi-year 35% dip happening first, negating a whole lot of that "protection strategy" they are counting on.

[@Youknowwhatscoming]

When ppl cannot afford even basic necessities due to inflation, many things will change. Fed won’t be able to cut rates due to hyperinflation. That ship has sailed. Get ready for a new reality

[@leechongyew8807]

Whatever the govt. is doing, it amplifies peoples attributes. For example, those who love spending, will spend more when money is cheap while those who love making money will make more money by using cheap money for productive purposes. This bifurcation will get much worst if the govt. doesn't allow the lower 50% to be crushed. For example, if recession arrives, and the govt. lowers rate dramatically, people who loves spending will go into more debt while those with ample liquidity will borrow more for investment -- larger bifurcation. If the govt. drops helicopter money, then most of the money will be funnelled to billionaires. Let people suffer for their actions. This is the only way forward. The govt. should stand back and let free market do its thing.

[@Youknowwhatscoming]

So well said. But I don think they will and rich will keep getting richer and poor will keep getting poorer. This is the worst economy

[@vincentyeo88]

Check the number and the density of tent cities to know if the economy is better or worse than before.

[@davidcpugh8743]

Speaking as one who can handle long term care costs, done beat the system. But the social earthquake?

[@Maddie-lv5sg]

With the new March numbers what does Meredith Whitney see now?

[@SYNERSTAR]

.... big picture..? society is breaking, broken, BROKE

[@Fred-ql3gq]

Disagree on one thing. Watch the Sahm rule indicator on Friday April 5th. If it's at 0.40 or higher, we are already in recession.

[@stephtraveler7378]

This is who RFK should of asked to be his running mate..instead of the left wing loon he picked. Imagine a person in Washington that understands our true economic issues....

[@mrwilliamwonder]

No, prices not coming down. Stop fooling yourselves.