How Can PFF Tell You That Two Identical Performances Are Different?

Both C.J. Stroud & Jordan Love had nearly identical statistical performances in their #NFL Playoff Debuts, yet PFF gave Jordan Love a higher grade? What goes into a PFF grade and these two performances that can tell you how this happens?
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[@ThatFranchiseGuy]

If you're interested in learning more about the creation of PFF and some stories of how it's been ran, evolved throughout the years I recommend Matthew Coller's book "Football is a Numbers Game"! www.amazon.com/Football-Numbers-Game-Data-Driven-Approach/dp/1637272189/ref=asc_df_1637272189/?tag=hyprod-20&linkCode=df0&hvadid=652427549515&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=6971324042041309783&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=m&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=9019664&hvtargid=pla-2058777831105&psc=1&mcid=7911f20359f53df8a9a0f03c249cf94f

[@antonioiniguez1615]

I started listening to the audiobook about a week ago. Great listen

[@MR.ROBOTVOLTRON]

Its bias. As a Houston fan I've noticed this since forever. That's why you can't accurately assess what talent they have. Neither can PFF from year to year. Their bias plays too large a role. Now they are 10-7 and no matter a PFF score Love isn't in CJs vicinity as a player. Sure if you take away 3 games from injury Love is close. Just like how they overrated Jalen Carter over Will Anderson in the last 6 games of the season. Where Will Anderson has every category of stat won on his side. Some by a large margin.

[@MR.ROBOTVOLTRON]

But I understand why you would want to put Love against CJ Stroud. Because you are absolutely wrong about his and the Texans draft grade. He is already better than Jordan Love. Obviously Colts drafts picks were not as high as you graded them over the Texans. 😂😂

[@MR.ROBOTVOLTRON]

I mean because honestly the question is if CJ is as good as Mahomes and Lamar Jackson already. Not if Love grades higher than him on PFF.

[@MR.ROBOTVOLTRON]

Oh by the way. I still dont want anything the Colts drafted in every top pick vs theirs. Right down to Tank Dell vs their own little guy. 😉

[@clintholmes2061]

If all PFF did was regurgitate the box score they wouldn't really have a purpose would they?

[@clintholmes2061]

And the same can be said of TFG.

[@navonmyhand7999]

I know PFF isn't perfect or completely objective because they still have people watch the film and make their judgements based on a man-made system, yet situations like this is exactly why PFF exists. I feel like people are more mad because from emotions than actual fact.

[@chuckleezodiac24]

their purpose is making money. lol. it also gives nerds shit to argue about.

[@georgerojas1949]

@@navonmyhand7999no it think people are mad because these grades and stats are based on what ifs a lot of the time rather than results. I think its very helpful but should only be looked at with other numbers and stats not superior to

[@t4d0W]

@@chuckleezodiac24 Nerds put them on a pedestal. When all PFF does is consistently chart the game based on the film the nerds also watch. But yeah PFF also offers a more expensive service to franchises that is a whole different experience than the nerds understand about PFF itself.

[@Dubskii001]

This was a much needed video for the PFF haters 😂 people can’t seem to wrap their heads around players performances being based off more than just the box score.

[@rjharrold2907]

Ik its fucking insane And what takes it to the next level is that those are the actual people using statistics and the statistics they are using are the most simple basic horrible ones to use to judge a player

[@ShrexyGuy]

Imagine trusting the site that gave Daks stinker a positive grade lmfao

[@ThatFranchiseGuy]

PFF doesn't discriminate in garbage time, it's up for people to contextualize those grades. What I do wish we're that we had more filters and could see what his grade was before GB backed off.

[@rolmodel12.]

@spunktaneouscumbustion8109 lol, who are you mad at? They did not give Dak a positive grade (overall) for the playoff game. They gave him a high grade on the season, which is accumulative. 60 is baseline for each game, as explained in this video and many others. PFF isn't THE answer. There is no, singular, way to assess a player's value, in any sport. PFF is just attempting to find a formula to do so, just as WAR does for baseball, and win share +/- for basketball. Not one is perfect, but at least people (that love both the sport and statistics) are trying to come up with a system. No one here is saying, "stats don't matter," what is being conveyed is stats do NOT tell the whole story. Which you know is true. Also, repeatedly bringing up who you think cater, and use, PFF systems is a bad look. As an older fan, whom as always been a stat nerd and has no social media presence at all (sans a YT comment, now and again)- I can tell you: can't judge a book by its cover, a user by a comment, nor a group by a site used. Be better, buddy. 🤙🏻

[@ShrexyGuy]

@@rolmodel12. The baseline is 50. Tf are you talking about? 60 better than average. Cause garbage time. Which even TFG's simping ass admitted

[@brandoncosbyjr.7097]

What people don't understand about PFF is not only how the grades work, but it's also nowhere near the only thing they do. The grades are easily digestible so they get posted on socials, but PFF is broadly a football analytics company and they have a database of nuanced analytics that provide much more context and insight than the grades do, you just have to pay to get access to that stuff.

[@treyvon8108]

Yeah like adjusted completion percentage is a classic analytic they came up with. Also being able to see player’s pass rush win rate is awesome.

[@kja6336]

Their grading is definitely horrible, unlike their actual deep analysis stats. Like in this video the drops don’t make up for the YAC yet a throwaway does Ex. Giving a WR a good grade for running a wrong route and getting good separation Ex2. QB throwing to wrong shoulder on an option route Ex3. Scrambling, improvisation on QB and WRs part Ex4. DBs getting better grades for less targets, and vice versa. When it’s really just the WR that they’re assigned

[@brandoncosbyjr.7097]

@kja6336 I think saying it's horrible is disrespect and inaccurate, they're never going to be perfect because, as you pointed out, there are certain situations where the grades lose some context, but in general they're an effective tool as long as their used as a piece of your argument and not the whole basis of it.

[@georgerojas1949]

@@brandoncosbyjr.7097couldn’t have said it better

[@Moonbreon23]

@@treyvon8108I love that the pass rush win rate is the only stat that matters to win DPOY

[@lukehenderson1206]

I feel like this gets brought up every few months. Is PFF going to give you a 100% accurate assessment of every play and player? No. Is it significantly better than listening to some talking head who never watches an all 22 in there life who hates PFF because it doesn't agree with him? Definitely.

[@unc54]

What makes it worse is a lot of people (including players) don't even understand how the grades are calculated. Like JJ Watt legitimately thinks it's an algorithm that decides the grades.

[@jacobjones5269]

And what about people who are too young to ever have seen a real football game?.. lol.. Not this glorified arena league crap?.. You don’t understand why we giggle at PFF.. Not that they’re useless, just often clueless..

[@jacobjones5269]

I literally heard Monson have an epiphany about under center play action yesterday?.. He was so amazed at how it’s such a different dynamic than play action from the gun or straight drop back?.. Yeah!.. It’s been like that since the advent of the forward pass?.. Hello?!.. lol.. Plays that are well set up will have a fundamental better chance at success.. And he’s an expert?!.. Gimme a break..

[@JackKnoxx]

​@@unc54 Players hate it because it can determine their contracts. GMs and owners love it for the same reason. The argument in reality is somewhere in between. PFF should be in addition to(not instead of) to normal statistics and your own analysis of game footage. PFF, Box score, and your own analysis of game footage should be combined in an assessment of a player. None of those factors should be used in isolation. Any one of those by themselves have their own flaws.

[@rjharrold2907]

It is actually so concerning that there are so many people that don't understand the concept of this

[@Moonbreon23]

Not really. Most people don’t give a shit

[@TheModernPioneer]

The fact that people can’t understand the difference between on-paper stats like completion percentages, and actual QB grading systems, absolutely blows my mind.

[@jasons2210]

This is why like PFF. Football is the ultimate team sport and its impossible to tell which player was largely responsible for a big time play if youre looking only at the stats. That 72 yard TD by Stroud is a perfect example. Stroud deserves credit for successfully performing the play, but Brevin Jordan and the blockers are far more responsible for that TD than Stroud. The problem is when you say that, some people automatically assume youre saying Stroud isnt that good and it couldnt be further from the truth. Thanks for the detailed explanation Marcus, I hope JJ Watt gets a chance to see this.

[@riotak0009]

The issue is CJ is working with way less talented OL. On that Brevin Jordan TD you discredit CJ for being able to pull coverage off of Jordan and then CJ is able to recognize it and loft it over to defenders to Jordan. So no it wasn't a low difficulty because he also had 2 defenders coming down on him.

[@JLA203]

@@riotak0009he threw a screen off his back foot. CJ is one of my favorite QBs and one of the best QBs in the nfl, but every nfl starter is expected to make that throw.

[@jonathansoto3203]

Wym? The whole play happened because of Stroud… how can y’all ignore that ?

[@JLA203]

@@jonathansoto3203 he threw a screen my guy… that play happened the way it was schemed up to happen. Debate kinda getting annoying cus he’s a top qb and makes elite throws all the time, this just isn’t one.

[@savagefantasy24]

PFF is great, but it should obviously be used with combination of film analysis, other stats and analytics

[@ShrexyGuy]

PFF is not great. It's somehow less accurate than looking at Madden ratings. In what world is a 5 incompletion, 3 TD day graded at Derek Carr's (not saying that to knock DC either, I'm a fan of his) overall season, besides PFFs? Edited cause I put know and not knock

[@Horible4]

Exactly. People take too much offense to the grades as if it's an insult to other players when in reality it's just another measuring stick like any other stat. It's not perfect but nobody else is doing it at this level.

[@savagefantasy24]

@@ShrexyGuy JJ it’s time to get off the burner.

[@imcalledgpk]

​@@ShrexyGuyof those 5 incompletions, I'm pretty sure 2 of them were turnover worthy. With one being giftwrapped for the defense.

[@justinrenaud4818]

@@ShrexyGuyJordan love had two 3 TD 0 int games graded in the 60s against the Bears and falcons, and I think it’s fairly accurate to how he played in those games. Same thing for stroud

[@smittysomething3520]

The video we need right now. I’ve seen so much “PFF sucks!” recently without any explanation as to why and what would be the better alternative. I really think most people who say that have no idea what PFF even does.

[@antonioiniguez1615]

PFF does absolutely suck when it comes to their grades but this is one of the few times they're right

[@kosko20]

While we won't agree on the grade breakdown, this is a good job highlighting the difference in play. You are more generous in the + categories than we are. And that Nico overthrow was just a -.5.

[@virtualod4400]

To be fair to CJ and a knock against Love people don't understand that CJ only played a half. He officially played in 3 quarters, but in reality not really. So stats wise CJ did everything Love did with 2 less quarters. Garage time negativity impacts PFF. So now tell me who had a better game.

[@gridion109]

Glad youre making a video on this, this discourse has been crazy lmao

[@ThatFranchiseGuy]

Tell me about it

[@mattcurrin493]

Truly don’t know how this was a controversial thing online. Obviously grades are meant to add nuance to plays beyond the result. We all know Brock Purdy doesn’t get as high of a grade on a screen that goes 70 yards as Mahomes would on a rollout ball 70 yards in the air.

[@felixlara2945]

Purdy actually had a longer air yard pass than mahomes this year 💀 although it helps when your deep threat isn't a gunner

[@bagtea]

@@felixlara2945 mahomes was kinda ass this season, maybe thats why

[@maxwalton411]

And his deep threats were even more ass

[@omarg2079]

I disagree when it comes to the overall grades. So many things go into a single player's game that to try to simplify it to a single number is reductive and sensationalist. I think that trying to grade individual aspects (ie: pass rush grades) is fine, but combining everything into a single grade is dumb.

[@miketklapperich770]

But Mahomes had MVS…

[@thetruealex7478]

Absolutely love this video. While I may disagree with a few throws by a half point either way, this does a phenomenal job of showing the pff process. PFF would be smart to push this video, or something of their own like it. Keep up the awesome content.

[@ThatFranchiseGuy]

Glad you enjoyed it!

[@paulkaehn6203]

PFF did do a video on this but I don't think they did nearly as good of a job explaining it as Marcus did.

[@nerothelost9605]

PFF needs significant work and changes for me to take it seriously as a legit measure of a player. There are too many intangibles impossible to measure for it to ever be more than a gimmick. I also dont think a politician from ireland and a failed minor league baseball player are qualified but thats just me. Pff is a money grab. Thats about it.

[@euler2117]

@@paulkaehn6203 I agree, they talk too broadly about it. This is a good line by line analysis of the grade and their play

[@euler2117]

@@nerothelost9605 I view the grades as just part of the picture, not the whole picture. there's not much good deep unbiased football analysis out there

[@toekneecornhighsir7299]

I think a large part of this controversy is explained by people's priors and feelings on Stroud and Love. Stroud is the hot new rookie who's had a surprisingly historically good rookie season. He's helped to turn around a franchise along with young exciting weapons and a young exciting HC. He "overcame the odds" of most of his college tape not reflecting this amazing playmaking ability, plus a low S2 score, and there was heavy buzz he would fall in the draft. He's been an endearing underdog story all year. A ton of people like him and his story a lot. Meanwhile, Jordan Love was a meme immediately upon entering the league, through no fault of his own. He sat on the bench in Green Bay "wasting space" for three seasons. People gave him a bust label after barely playing in his first three seasons, and when he did play, it didn't go well. He's been unfairly associated with Aaron Rodgers and his McAfee/"political" controversial persona. He started this year decent, then got inconsistent, only fanning the "bust" flames. Then he caught fire midway through the season, and many groaned that the Packers did it again at QB. It's less interesting and less fun for many people. Picture this: Stroud and Love had identical statlines last weekend, except Stroud's PFF grade was 92, and Love's was 78. Is there any controversy whatsoever? Are the twitter geniuses coming out in droves to blindly support Jordan Love over something like this? In my opinion, not a chance. Great video, Marcus. While PFF isn't perfect, the level of hate they get is completely baffling.

[@Frostypower]

This should blow up. Very nice the way you explained the proces and then actually showed it being used

[@ThatFranchiseGuy]

Very kind, thank you!

[@jake02ferguson]

Somebody focusing on box score is the biggest teller of a casual sports fan

[@J-K-A]

The grading is whatever. I don’t agree with their assessment in whole because JJ Watt is right when he said PFF doesn’t know the game plan or specific assignments. A coach could tell the QB to go deep on a play and if the QB does it as instructed, and the defense stops them, they get a negative but did their job correctly. But what I really hate is that PFF is starting to be used in contract negotiations. This means that their proprietary work which is paid for by teams, can be used to create leverage on player contracts. It’s really easy for there to be some hidden impacts that the players themselves can’t control and can’t verify independently. It’s in PFFs financial interest to make a product that supports their buyers and a huge part of their market are teams. So if say a team wanted to cut a few million dollars on a contract they very realistically could spend a few thousand on PFF to make some team favorable decisions about play grades. Before anyone calls me a conspiracy nut, all I’m trying to point out is a market issue with the company regarding their possible impact on player contracts. I’m not saying it’s happening, it’s just an issue I see.

[@jamenneptune1803]

I think the biggest issue with PFF is that people think 70 is a bad grade when really its an above average grade

[@stebo5562]

Just shows that even with great performances, stroud has a lot of room to improve, which is scary. I’ve noticed it all year, even with the incredible season he’s had, he’s left points on the field. Crazy to think how good he will be in a few years

[@Tales_Thomas]

If you watched both games. You'd clearly see that Jordan Love played slightly better bro.

[@7_rmc]

I think people forget that Stroud sat out the majority of the 4th quarter.

[@stevenwilcox3985]

One pass to Collins was part of the negative grade but if you watched the play Collins slowed down during the route and that's why he missed him on that long pass.Also 2 passes were perfect throws and Collins and Shultz just dropped the ball.

[@timdrozinski1653]

Just because you can explain it doesn’t make it less arbitrary or more valid.

[@Bear731]

Currently sending this to JJ Watt’s DMs

[@slander8643]

Really all the PFF grade does is try to quantify the 'eye test'. A person looks at every play and subjectively grades it, then a player is cumulatively graded based off those scores. It's not useless, in fact, if the eye test is all you rate players based off of it's probably exactly the stat you've been looking for. But it's very far off anything resembling rigorous statistics since the root of the score is 100% subjective.

[@philironic]

In school, you don’t start with 100%, that’s a misnomer, you start with no grade as you can’t divide by 0.

[@energyshock6038]

Excellent video. I think a lot of football fans need to watch this so they might begin to understand what they don't.

[@MurderousPingu]

I mostly trust PFF but, and I'm not a Mahomes hater, I do not understand how Mahomes has been consistently getting such high grades all season and got the same grade as Josh Allen in the wild card round. I mention Mahomes as a particular and noteworthy example but in general from time to time PFF gives some, in my opinion, very questionable scores Edit: my overarching point isn't that PFF is biased or useless or whatever, but I do feel like some people give it too much weight in how they think of and rank players

[@mayitakeyourhatsir8632]

JJ saying PFF grades come from an "algorithm" kinda just shows that he has no understanding of how grades are made, and hasn't really tried to gain understanding. (I think he doesn't like them because they consistently prefer Myles Garrett over his brother despite the sack production. Interesting how he's now frustrated that Stroud got a lower grade than love despite similar production.)

[@vcortez87]

Actually, it would be good if it was a computerized algorithm. That would be objective. That there is so much human input actually calls it more into question.

[@mattmurdockthemanwithoutfear]

@@vcortez87well they’re humans that are preforming

[@donnyflippo2781]

I think its interesting that you just did to JJ what you accused him of doing to PFF. You made an assumption about what he thinks, when you don’t know. Interesting huh?

[@MR.ROBOTVOLTRON]

And Myles Garrett disappeared against the Texans so he is probably right about his brother being better too.

[@vcortez87]

@@mattmurdockthemanwithoutfear what?

[@TobyElmendorf]

I spent a little bit yesterday on twitter arguing with people who just are ignorant about PFF and don't care to understand why or how advanced metrics and watching games and grading them works, it was genuinely infuriating

[@soultortoise510]

In a time where it’s so easy for us to have knee jerk reactions to takes that go against our own biases, it’s so nice to see someone actually stop and break down how that take was formed and why it may make sense. Keep doing what you do Marcus!

[@t4d0W]

Its funny you would think the fans who would champion using numbers to expand the view of the game would be aware of the process at arriving to those numbers.

[@WillAyeAmNot]

As a faithful PFF viewer, this video was insightful, thorough, and well articulated. Good video, will continue watching

[@tristonka4]

The only problem i have is that there were 4 QBs rated higher in that week when CJ played allost flawless football

[@TheHalfBloodYoutuber]

Thank you so much for making this video TFG. Before this video I didn’t really respect PFF grades cuz I thought they were just looking at stats and adding some sort of grading curve to account for usage or overall impact or something like that. Now I realize how very wrong I was and I appreciate you for informing me. Thank you for allowing me to now fully appreciate such a helpful and available resource for football context.

[@deanpierce3775]

What I took from this video is the Texans line played much better so Strouds throws were not as difficult as Loves. I do not agree with this point system. Too entirely subjective.

[@chuckleezodiac24]

Stroud's coordinator designed plays good. and the players executed them good. and dudes got wide open. and ran good with the ball. and blockers blocked good. so it was too easy. so Stroud didn't play gooder than Love.

[@jadendurham6951]

Awesome breakdown! It’s frustrating when people only look at stats and assume the PFF grades are wrong. They haven’t taken the time to watch the film like they have! Fantastic analysis.

[@ethan_c223]

Nuance really is a super power

[@maximusrex8689]

Crazy that JJ Watt claimed that it was just an algorithm. Passer rating is an algorithm, based only on other stats. That’s why both players have the same passer rating. PFF grade is based also on film which is why the grades were different.

[@davidcook7847]

Where the issues come in is the TE screen going for 76 yards. That was the correct read and throw by CJ, don't make it any harder than that. If it doesn't go for a touchdown, high likelihood he goes 5/6 the rest of the way perhaps for an eventual TD. But because the TE did his job, Stroud's max performance on PFF suffers. Grain of salt type stuff

[@ThatFranchiseGuy]

I take issue with just assuming Stroud goes on a perfect TD drive. You grade what you can grade and take them for what they are. Can always contextualize things after the fact.

[@davidcook7847]

I agree with you. You grade what is there and that is fair. That is why I say over a longer period of time, PFF becomes more accurate. Who is better than who. But in one game, it can mask the true quality of play. Those two pick sixes robbed Stroud of two drives. So, I believe the score, but I don't believe they say one person is better than another on an individual game. That is all,@@ThatFranchiseGuy

[@ThatFranchiseGuy]

Counterpoint: Jordan Love received an elite grade in the exact same number of dropbacks 🤷‍♂️ Their system accounts for sample size, for example, if someone has a +2.5 and plays 3 snaps, his grade gets like a 98.0

[@MR.ROBOTVOLTRON]

​@@ThatFranchiseGuyif Stroud throws the perfect lead pass to allow the TE to run for extra yards is still a higher grade than it was given. It's not as easy as throw a screen and it'll always score a touchdown if he catches it. It also had to be a great throw that can keep the guy running with momentum.

[@MR.ROBOTVOLTRON]

​@@ThatFranchiseGuyyou see that's why guys like PFF were wrong about CJ vs Young. 😂😂 guys like me were right. Like really right. Anthony Richardson got injured like I said too.

[@mariodelarosa5722]

CJ, getting dissed for being outspoken for Jesus, again!!!

[@jeois411]

I'm not saying PFF is wrong, in fact I think they are usually accurate, but the fact that analysts comb over individual plays assigning a rating actually diminishes my trust in the grades. If they were putting data and positions into an algorithm (if that was even what JJ Watt was complaining about), like with QBR or Passer Rating, then there's an objective mathematical proof of those formulas. Sure, those ratings include less factors and is less comprehensive overall, but introducing subjective reasoning and personal judgment is the opposite of what analytics represent. I mean, if we were going off the eye test and just quantifying that, then you could have a boxing judge situation where they are usually accurate in telling who won the fight, but due to the inconsistency of human judgment and circumstance, there isn't really a comparable number behind those scores when there isn't a direct head-to-head match-up. In which case, the more judges the better, rather than using only one or two analysts to rate every play. It's unscientific and not mathematically sound to do it this way, which I would argue defeats the whole purpose of analytics.

[@MR.ROBOTVOLTRON]

Finally someone finally caught this about PFF. They have always done suspect things like this. I think we all know they hate Houston. There is no way Love is better than CJ. He just isn't.

[@chuckleezodiac24]

he was this week. like for real. it's just a fact. too bad you're emotionally incapable of accepting it. PFF said so. case closed.

[@MR.ROBOTVOLTRON]

@@chuckleezodiac24 it's too bad he isn't that good.

[@FINAL-B0SS]

They’ve found a way to score football like figure skating. lol

[@lonelyb9661]

A pass for 10 yards on 3rd and 10 is more impressive than a pass for 10 yards on 3rd and 20. The situation matters and should be measured and graded accordingly.

[@antonioiniguez1615]

Down and distance shouldn't matter at all whatsoever.

[@kylethomas2993]

@@antonioiniguez1615 I guess it depends on game situation and if the defense is just giving you that it shouldn't be graded highly.

[@hengineer]

@@antonioiniguez1615 if it doesn't get 1st down then yea it should.

[@antonioiniguez1615]

@@hengineer No it shouldn't. Moving the chains doesn't make the throw any more impressive

[@hengineer]

@antonioiniguez1615 what's the point of the game again? I've seen something similar in soccer where ratings for scoring to tie the game or going ahead are rated higher than scoring the 6th goal of a 6-0 rout.

[@thefantasyfootballforge]

Great video, as always. Thanks for taking the time to look at this and provide your own insight.

[@ThatFranchiseGuy]

My pleasure!

[@JLA203]

@@ThatFranchiseGuypls answer this cus I listened to ur podcast where u compared Hurts in 2021 vs the Bucs in 2023. I looked both up and in 2021 he had a 45 game grade and in 2023 he had a 73. U clearly thought he didn’t play well so I was wondering why he was graded that way. I’m just asking btw not trying to hate

[@scuproductions]

Kinda tired of people shitting on PFF. Yes, it's more accurate than you are, more than likely lmao

[@CHP.Spinna]

People don’t understand it so they hate it

[@johnhendrix28]

I heard a good explanation to this, supposedly CJ almost threw a pick like it should’ve been legit picked off but the player dropped it, and his receivers produced a lot on screen plays

[@ShrexyGuy]

It's hilarious how y'all kids need to look at a incoherently assembled grading curve instead of on field metrics. No wonder you screech so hard for PFF. Numbers are difficult. Look at the math grades the last decade 😂

[@scuproductions]

@@ShrexyGuy I don't even get what you're trying to say in your message lol You think they just pull the numbers out their ass or something?

[@ShrexyGuy]

​@@scuproductions actually since they say stats don't matter (but they gave Dak a 60 cause 400 yards and 3 TDs against nobodies) yes, they do have to pull it from their ass. And Im saying the TikTok gen needs everything as simplified as possible. And that's PFFs niche audience

[@TexasKing100]

Love plays against air and is praised as God for doing something 50 QBs can do but Stroud gets railed for 2 WR mistakes xD gotta love agenda pushing PFF who refuse to admit they were wrong about Stroud

[@ChumblesMumbles]

Thanks for the educational video. The raw stat-lines can definitely be misleading for QB's - the times an interception isn't caught it's just an incomplete pass, and the times a short pass turns into a huge gain and a TD just because the receiving player did something amazing or the defense screwed up, that doesn't necessarily mean the QB did anything truly special. The PFF approach tries to grade like a coach watching film would - what did this player do right and wrong on each play. There's room to disagree on degree, but usually they're more useful than simple QBR/Passer Rating or the yards/TD's/INT's.

[@t4d0W]

Agree on this. PFF I would say is more 'box score plus' as a metric tool but folks make it out to be something grand. It definitely beats diluting a QB performance to a box score for QBR and yards/tds/ints/completion%. But people will still react to PFF numbers purely out of emotion until they see the film like a coach would. Sadly that is too much work for nerds.

[@edwardcacho6242]

Hilarious = 92 - 77 is 15 points - Even if I agreed with your grading its a 5 point difference..... the ridiculous difference of 77 to 92 on both excellently played games is the story here

[@haygrayk]

A 77 is a very good performance. 92 is nearly perfect. Like said, stroud had a couple plays that couldve been picked off and a TD that was a screen pass and another a checkdown where the TE made the play.

[@calebhoffman6368]

Does PFF take into account the defense the QB is playing against? Because stroud was playing against a superior defense. If not than it seems kinda pointless. This is a question listening to the video for 2 minutes.

[@papid3548]

And why do we need PFF player ratings again?? Sounds about as useless as Madden ratings. Im guessing Mahomes and Lamar Jackson gets 80 and 90 every game lol

[@DarkNight-zo5ci]

To say ppl are only judging this off the box score is immensely disingenuous, I watched this full video and still don't agree

[@dallasemmitt22_37]

After JJ Watt’s comments on the Pat McAfee show I was really curious about this. Great video topic!

[@rjrjr1]

Disrespecting PFF grades is idiotic. Thinking PFF is the end all and be all is even more moronic. PFF is a tool that points u in the right direction. And it does a really good job of that. Their more specific stats are really really important. But even their "A-C" grades are pretty useful in gauging where a player is at. I know a bunch of players where I disagree with their rating. But I understand why. Bobby Okereke was rated terrible in pass coverage in 2022 in Indy. In 2023, he's one of the best ranked coverage LBs. It doesn't take a genius to realize that the scheme bumped him down last year. We even knew that before his performance this year.

[@rjrjr1]

They do a really good job judging based on what they know/assume. Their advanced stats will really tell you things, but their overall grades are great for directionality. You just need to know what their grades consider and what they don't. PFF is a tool, not a tell-all answer. PFF is one of many factors you need to consider when considering a player's value for a team. But an important one.

[@jeffreywillis4258]

I doubt PFF takes into account Stroud sat out the 4th quarter. Stroud basically had these stats by halftime.

[@haygrayk]

Thats not a factor, its based on the play that was made. It doesnt matter what didnt happen or what could’ve. Because thats not what happened.

[@dcc70]

Nerds are gonna nerd, just ignore them and let them have their fun

[@chuckleezodiac24]

i love PFF! it keeps nerds off the streets so the cool kids can go out and party and get laid.

[@elaurant01]

I don't know if its you, PFF or someone else but there is serious valuable future in these film vs score breakdowns.

[@elaurant01]

I think PFF grades for coverage are by far thier worst, borderline garbage but many of their grades are legit. ( Only grading targets is a serious issue)

[@kja6336]

PFF gives better grades if you make the situation worse for yourself.. if they like you. Example being Love putting himself into pressure and it rewarding him with extra points. Also fading away helps aid Loves argument for a “great” throw, even though Stroud throws it the same way on every other throw

[@Jack-td6hl]

We found the Texans fan here.

[@MR.ROBOTVOLTRON]

​@@Jack-td6hlbut that's true. Love is not better at identical stats. That's just true.

[@ChacheeMalone69]

anybody who credits PFF in 2024 likely does not know ball.

[@aidanvitticore3475]

Great video, we needed this, no one seems to care about context these days, glad we have the likes of PFF and you to set the record straight.

[@jddavis2226]

PFF is widely criticized by actual players. The fact that you’re defending a 15 spread, with nearly identically stat lines, shows that people put way too much faith in PFF. And if you actually listened to JJ Watt, he never said they just put it into a system and it spits out a grade. Watts biggest problem is that this system is used like it is Gospel and it’s still very subjective. If the screen pass was graded a 0, but I have literally watched them grade Mahomes throwing a screen to Tyreek as a 2… then it’s subjective. Without the body language and movement from Stroud, the entire defense doesn’t bite and allow Collins to turn it into a score. You also showed an incomplete pass that resulted in a penalty which was graded as a 0… but you glossed over it like it was to be taken as gospel. Go back and watch Stroud manipulates the pocket to perfection, steps up (knowing he of about to get hit) delivers a perfect pass that would have been a catch if his intended target had not been held! You also Stroud a .5 point score for screen where he went through 3 reads and then makes a jumping throw on target to give his receiver a chance. Once again, if you have as clout as PFF , be less subjective. Or dont have nerds like us grading anything, but maybe former QBs that understand the difficulty of going to your third read in less than two seconds and delivering a perfect pass while getting hit. You gave Love 2 point graded play on an off target throw to a wide open receiver, and the wr made a great adjustment to go get it, but it looked difficult to you so it fit a higher grade in your opinion.., subjective. Perfect example of subjective grading is that I graded a 2 point throw from Love as a 2.5. But graded two 2.5s as a 2 and 1.5 . I felt as though one the was off target pretty bad and the receiver made a great catch, and had like 4 yards of separation making it an easier throw too, and the 2nd one was him creating a problem, overcoming his created problem and delivering a decent pass to a guy with good separation, who had sat in that spot too long before Love noticed him. I also graded Loves bad pass as a -1.5 because it should’ve been intercepted, and that’s what PFF says is turnover worthy on a short pass that is 2 yards off the mark. And grading a pass that travels nearly 70 yards in the air as a negative when the receiver clearly could’ve had it if they hadn’t slowed up( the receivers own words btw) is asinine . But, again, it’s very subjective. Yet you somehow managed to use word salad to justify the graded even though you came up with an 81 and 75.5… but you think this eases the minds of the critics? If anything, it should spotlight glaring contradictions. I went through each play and ended up with an 89 for Love and an 87 for Stroud.

[@michaelzhang6776]

The problem with PFF is that you don't know the intention of a play by watching (scheme and situation dependent). It's also not intrinsically not able to be validated, since the desired outcome "being good at football" is not a tangible outcome. At the end of the day, PFF is a great measure for how players fit into PFF's predefined grading criteria. But to make the claim that it's a more complete measure of success is a reach. It's a data point to look at in addition to stats. But take the score along with everything else, with a grain of salt.

[@phene-449]

pff criticizers either have a lack of understanding of it, or are simply lazy. pff isn't perfect but it's far more accurate than any official nfl stat.

[@dannyg6939]

great video as always

[@tiffajessi6647]

So ppl are mad Love made more impressive throws, while stepping up in the pocket quicker/better? Do people even watch games? Lol, 78 is a good grade, but love went against an insane defense and tore them to shreds in the 1st half, so much so he got benched to rest for the 49ers game. Great video breaking down the differences between their games!

[@CoreyFSnowden]

Didn't Stroud only play like...2.5 quarters?

[@aliarif1051]

What keeps getting ignored that it took Love all game to accumulate those stats while CJ stroud functionally did that in a single half

[@BugsBunny-us3uu]

Shut up

[@cheesehead52221]

21 attempts each. Packers also ran the ball more than the Texans, and more effectively too

[@MR.ROBOTVOLTRON]

That's how they cope nowadays. By using pff or their own subjective scoring systems. I rather win and let them cope.

[@hotkarl2961]

It's annoying to see people shit on pff on their own youtube channel as the guys are explaining why the grades are the grades.

[@MRKNIGHT]

PFF is bullshit. CJ didn’t even play most of the second half. 😂 The Texans faced a much better defense in the Browns over the Cowboys. I watched both games real time and can tell you CJ way outplayed Love.

[@haygrayk]

Okay then clearly you cant evaluate ball. Stroud threw 3 passes that could’ve been picked off. Love threw 0.

[@jeffh8436]

This channel is innovative and creative. My mind has been wired for deep NFL thinking from the late 80's until now and this channel is a good fix!

[@kwamearhin2800]

What an excellent video!!! Very informative.

[@Cole_Train_]

This is one the best videos you have done TFG!

[@TobiTobiTobi1]

TJ Watt is DPOY, PFF doesnt account for his coverage snaps which hurts his scores and he still outperforms all edges. One day you will accept that hes been the best defensive player in the NFL aside Donald over Garrett for the past 4 years

[@avyayrao2359]

Amazing video! I don't think any NFL KZbinr puts in the kind of effort that you do for their content. This was one of my favourite videos of yours. Would love to see more "TFG Explains the Grade" kind of videos in the future! ❤

[@masterrace4005]

In 2016 pff graded the CB duo of my team the best. As a fan of that team. I would have liked for that to bet true. But that CB duo was complete dog shit. Pff been garbage. Not trying to argue for someone on my team. Rather against.

[@James-py6kf]

Musgrave had no one within 20 yards of him. Doubs had no one near him either but that doesn’t negatively affect Love’s grade but Stroud got dinged for YAC?

[@jadenmoyers837]

Both of those throws for love were off the back foot and he had a hand directly in his face

[@Swvf]

watch who was around love, stop trying to knock love for making a good play & just accept what stroud didn’t do as well

[@MR.ROBOTVOLTRON]

There is zero ways Love played better. None.

[@tayloroldham4842]

awesome video. amazing that two players with identical box scores can produce such different film

[@vigilantvigilante2582]

Yes, amazing video. It's unfortunate how little JJ Watt (especially these past few months) and NFL fans know what they're talking about when discussing performances and dont pay attention to/shoot down actual tape watchers.

[@Thecrazytoco]

Bro what, how would JJ not know how this works, the fact is, their system is always changing and the biggest part of their success ( player grades ) are the worst part of their analytics and are being used to decide player contracts. Super simple.

[@zackhurwitz9441]

@@Thecrazytoco They have sparingly adjusted their scale over the years, and personally I think their system is flawed. A to Z sport's James Foster did a video expanding on it a lot better than I can. It has some useful advanced stats, but it's ultimately arbitrary. The only real benefit is when comparing similar performances, such as Stroud's and Loves'. For example, PFF doesn't take into account garbage time, nor quality of the opposing blocker in terms of pass rushing situations, such as a starting O lineman getting injured, and a pass rusher lighting it up against a backup, or a RB/TE. And if pass rush win rate paints a better picture than pressure rate, as pressures can be generated when a defender is unblocked or on stunts, then why have a pressure rate metric at all? Given some of the players we've seen get contracts (like Daniel Jones, Harold Landry or Allen Lazzard) it's pretty apparent that some coaches don't pay PFF any mind in giving out deals. And if they are, then why the hell do teams even have a scouting/personnel department? Shouldn't they trust their own evaluations?

[@MR.ROBOTVOLTRON]

I wouldn't say doubting PFF means nobody knows what they are saying no. 😂 PFF uses guessing games in their grades as well. They use too much emotion if you ask me. There is no way two identical stats are this far apart no. That's false it's that far apart. If so? Tgeir system is flawed. It just is.

[@zackhurwitz9441]

@@MR.ROBOTVOLTRON it's flawed, any grading inevitably will be and that's why it's arbitrary. But in this case for comparing Stroud and Love from this past weekend. I think they're correct. Similar outcomes, but very different tapes.

[@MR.ROBOTVOLTRON]

@@zackhurwitz9441 yeah ok. Stroud could have went for 400 yards against the top defense. I think they needed to weight defense as a factor too. He left in the 4th quarter because it was already over. His defense also kept intercepting Flacco in the 3rd quarter so he didn't play in the 3rd either. So yes these two are very different outcomes. CJ was just way better.

[@VangelVe]

Great job. Thank you for the enlightenment.

[@ayxxhyt]

They grade based on what ? FEELINGS

[@haygrayk]

Based on Tape lol. FOOTAGE. Degree of difficulty.

[@riotak0009]

So basically your saying it is all based on the watchers opinion on how they or you want to grade each play.

[@riotak0009]

I could also point out because of your break down. CJ Stroud could have had 4 TD and 300+ yards passing and still had less performance grade than Jordan Love. Because the plays that gave CJ that TD and yards were in the graders opinion low performance grade passes.

[@chuckleezodiac24]

basically. and then charge for the results. $$$$$$

[@MaynardGKrebs-tt1dd]

Reactionary is a term that historically means wanting to politically revert to earlier times (i.e., a reactionary conservative). Reactive is the word you want.

[@ThatFranchiseGuy]

Good to know!! I suck at English 😅

[@felixlara2945]

Actually it quite fits here, football conservatives are the one's pushing against all this change

[@aidanvitticore3475]

I feel like if they had identical PFF grades that should have been more controversial than being 15 points apart based on the tape, personally

[@AtH1338]

I would think the final number is calculated based on the amount of throws they had vs the average or something like that. There are also a lot of external factors like temperature, playing surface, receiver performance to create separation, etc.

[@tranquil5892]

Most people only read headlines. It’s not shocking that most people wouldn’t understand what PFF actually looks at.

[@thaThRONe]

No idea how people don't understand how to almost identical stat lines can be graded differently. It the reason why some QB's are successful "game managers" and some aren't.

[@aidanvitticore3475]

People who dog on PFF in conversations like this truly do not seem to understand what PFF is and what it is doing.

[@VideoGameNtn]

I think everybody understands PFF is not just a "plug numbers into a computer" type system and I don't think a lot of people were arguing Stroud was above Love in their scores. In my opinion, the biggest issue for fans was the vast 15pt gap between the two scores. I personally find a few of those throws CJ made to be graded slightly higher and a couple throws by Love to be a tad lower. If CJ was low 80s, I doubt anyone but a few hardcore fans would have any issue with the grade. Realistically, I think what most complaints overall issue is that PFF ultimately comes down to the opinions of the analysts who grade each play. Highly educated opinions, but opinions at the end of the day. And quite frankly, until there comes a football IQ AI that is highly sophisticated at grading players, that isn't going to change. At the end of the day, while I find this whole thing interesting, I don't particularly care. Both QBs had a great day and that's really all I care about.

[@paulkaehn6203]

Clearly JJ Watt doesn't understand that lol

[@VideoGameNtn]

@@paulkaehn6203 He said specifically that he didn't like algorithms determining a players performance and that coach's grades are vastly different compared to PFFs in all instances that he's personally been shown. Also, a note on the word Algorithm as well because a lot of people were inflating this word to mean "a computer process" or the like. An algorithm is a process using defined variables to come to a conclusion, much like what PFF does. It doesn't mean "a computer program spitting out data" or whatever people interpreted it as.

[@marcus4155]

Most people don't understand that, including JJ Watt himself.

[@hengineer]

Jordan's QBR being highest in playoff history (CJ being right behind) also matches.

[@AbigailRTeh]

Whatever their PFF scores are, both these QBs' teams are happy they have their franchise QBs. Stroud as a rookie too is downright impressive, whatever your grade is.

[@lukeb1663]

I gotta know what about the last TD pass from Jordan Love was only a 2.0. That throw was perfect and it’s not like there was a different read that was more open.

[@rikotokes8627]

Question @ 6:50 he misses a wide open WR, how is that not a negative play on his part? He failed at his job, hitting the wide open man for a 1st down.

[@itsbryan4910]

as a stroud and houston fan and watching this film as you broke it down, i can’t complain 🫡

[@TheRealJMart]

Love this video. Thanks for the breakdown. I do seem to remember reading on PFF's site that they do a -2 to 2 scale. Has that changed? Is it -2.5 to 2.5 now?

[@antonioiniguez1615]

Idk if they changed it or not but it's definitely -2 to 2

[@henro203]

Great video!

[@ethanlegler6403]

Curious if the "points" are a weighted thing? They take the points that they get from watching the film and rather than just adding those to a 60 and calling it a day, the points account for different weights in their formula that spits out different grades. Would make sense as to why while they had fairly similar days overall, Jordan Love having a couple more highly graded plays than Stroud and Stroud having the significant downgrade on the TWP sets the grade lower than if he didn't have that. Would be curious what Stroud's grade would be without the TWP. Either way this video does a good job at kind of giving somewhat of an inside look into the process and while it's not perfect, shows how the process does work and how it can be used to outline and give a pretty good read on how well or poorly someone is playing.

[@qwikscopez6619]

Each action a player takes is tracked. Pff will have done statistical analysis on how much these plays contribute to a combo of yards and points. Every action has a weight and you are right yes. A lucky TD where a corner back makes the mistake is worth less than the QB hitting just an insane window. This is the same for a wide receiver who beat his man and got open but his QB threw a nasty ball. The WR deserves credit for beating his man if you want to measure skill.

[@qwikscopez6619]

Also these days you'd be surprised, there's robots who can watch and track the game even things like throw window

[@Spite555]

last year patrick mahomes had a 91, this year dak had a 90. judging performances and skill based on pff will never be the way to go but i will admit the grades make sense for the most part

[@Spite555]

also basing off your point system they only have a 5.5 difference yet pff has them with a 14.7 difference. seems a bit extreme to me. your grade seems more accurate imo

[@ThatFranchiseGuy]

Their final grades aren't as simple as +/- the cumulative film scores, they have some formula that accounts for a few other things like sample size which I alluded to in the vid 👍

[@ThatFranchiseGuy]

To elaborate cause I find it interesting... If a guy has 3 plays in the game and one of them is a +2.5 you'll see a ridiculously high grade of like 98.0 which obviously isn't 60+2.5.. So I think that Love had a higher proportion of high graded plays and both had a pretty small sample size cause the games were blowouts (21 attempts each) Love's hit a higher mark. Just my understanding.

[@alexhussey1308]

Dak played phenomenally this year, and I think his grade is warranted. People at PFF and formerly at PFF have talked about how Mahomes engineers easier throws for himself, and how that skill gets lost in translation when it comes to grading.

[@kaseywahl]

People who look at the box score and cry foul because the stats were basically identical must also be under the impression that Stroud and Love played against the exact same opponent calling the exact same plays in the exact same contexts. PFF grades try to contextualize more than what is reflected in the box score, and while its not a perfect tool, it's definitely worth understanding its value.