How is the war going? - Mid-December 2022

[@davidhafner4324]

It is remarkable that this quality of real-time political and military analysis is available as an open source product.

[@jhwheuer]

Anders does this as a side gig… so he can use the exposure for a nice additional income plus get exposure for his main job (I am assuming here, Puck)… that makes it possible.

[@Null--]

@@jhwheuer Yeah, also when you are really good at something, all the misinformation about that subject becomes extremely obvious and annoying to see and perhaps that annoyance could be a good motivator to pushing out information of a higher quality. Sure do appreciate it!

[@dh1380]

Welllllll... I don't think it's remarkable at all. It is 2022, after all.. But Anders is good at what he does, and I am grateful that he does it.

[@iainamckenzie]

It's hardly unbiased as Anders is a NATO officer. He should make clear his affiliations just for clarity sake.

[@Thetarget1]

@@jhwheuer He said that he mainly does it because it´s interesting, and forces him to think deeply about the topics he covers, which also makes him better at his main job. I don´t think the income from youtube is very significant for him, as he already has a good job in the Danish military.

[@RayyMusik]

Thanks

[@anderspuck]

Thanks for your support.

[@Chiller01]

I suppose Avril Haines’ assessment could be deliberate misinformation if the US knows of upcoming Ukrainian offensive plans but does not want to flag or preempt them. As always a well reasoned analysis. Thanks for sharing your expertise.

[@cameronspence4977]

Either that or the 2 more more likely possibilities: she either misspoke, or she is just an idiot appointed/kept on for diversity reasons above a more capable colleague, both of which seem easily within the range of the biden administration

[@anthonybullard4441]

Agree. No one thinks the Ukrainians want a winter pause. If US intelligence is saying they do, it means they're working with them on a counteroffensive.

[@Aussie-Mocha]

Agreed!! There is definitely a storm coming to the occupied territories as well as within the Russian Federation 😈

[@57thorns]

Remember the Kherson diversion. It was epic. Russia send lots of troops there do die, while Ukraine prepared to liberate Kharkiv.

[@olmostgudinaf8100]

@@57thorns The point about _that_ diversion that no one mentions is, _why_ did they liberate Kharkiv first? It's just across the border, with the danger of Ruzzia defending it easily. Unless... they _knew_ that Ruzzia is toothless and has nothing left to send.

[@Norge2011ul]

Tak!

[@anderspuck]

Selv tak for støtten!

[@anthonybullard4441]

If US intelligence is saying they don't expect a counteroffensive during the winter, it probably means they're actively helping plan a counteroffensive during the winter...

[@AlanStrandbygaard]

...and perhaps also meant their statement to confuse?

[@whynottalklikeapirat]

Isn’t that a Russian meme?

[@advisorynotice]

I think US intel just gives intel and doesn't take active part in planning because they did the same thing in the early days and didn't give aid bc they expected Ukraine to lose anyways.

[@anthonybullard4441]

@@advisorynotice it's not really something I'm an expert on. A lot of people who are think the US helped plan the Kharkiv counteroffensive. Not a stretch to go from helping with intelligence and training to helping with planning. You could be right, though. You're definitely right that they were caught flat footed at first when the Ukrainian resistance didn't immediately crumble.

[@timandsuzidickey9358]

You got that well said !

[@jameshicks6753]

You do a very good job. Thanks J Hicks

[@Mrqwerty2109]

I don't think that the US government saying that Ukraine will take a pause was wrong or a mistake. I think that Ukraine asked the US to keep quiet about their winter operations, and the US is playing dumb. "All warfare is based on deception." -Sun Tzu

[@moritamikamikara3879]

All warfare is based. Ehh... Idk about that, read some Clausewitz too, he's pretty based

[@ETBrooD]

It's also a way to bust pro-Russian spies. Those do exist in America, too.

[@koskok2965]

Easy to do when you're born that way.

[@michaelg8193]

"All Sun Tzu quotes are made up" -Sun Tzu

[@poucine832]

It seems to me that Russia is attacking pretty hard near bakmut and elsewear so I don't see how Ukraine could take a pause !

[@highdefinist9697]

I think the aspect of "implicitly forgiving warcrimes" is very important to bring up... because it shows a potentially serious disconnect between those advocating for peace negotiations, and those who might eventually be involved in them.

[@maritaschweizer1117]

I see this tendency to ignore all the war crimes mainly from pazifists.

[@nvelsen1975]

The main disconnect between those advocating for peace now despite everything, and the diplomats, is that 99% of those people are Russian bots, covidiot Russian-brainwashed rioters and paid Russian agitators. I've not seen anyone serious even consider the idea, nevermind find a solution to the fact that Russia will simply use peace to rearm, expand their army and they'll invade again late 2023 or in 2024.

[@balaclavabob001]

Even if war crimes are officially forgiven, I suspect that there will still be a lot of russians having fatal 'accidents ' in the coming years . That said , I don't think the world will allow a situation where russia is allowed to get away with it atrocities.

[@alangriffith9453]

I don’t think it matters at all. Negotiations and diplomatic deals occur all the time with countries and leaders who have committed major human rights violations: Iran, China and North Korea are examples. Actual war crimes in war aren’t some magic exception - Milosevic in Serbia and Hussein in Iraq both committed war crimes and stayed in power years after their wars ended (in Kosovo and Kuwait), only being toppled by later events (internal for Milosovic, external for Hussein, but relating to 9/11 not Kuwait war crimes). Didn’t Putin commit war crimes in Chechnya?

[@ChucksSEADnDEAD]

​@@alangriffith9453apples and oranges. It's not that we won't deal with criminals, it's that a country willing to fight will have the punitve aspect of the war as a weight on the scales against a peace deal.

[@hobbymaniac101]

I appreciate how you date-coded the video at the very start, to make chronology evident for future viewers.

[@danl.909]

Thank you, Anders.

[@DonMendo61]

Danke!

[@anderspuck]

Thanks for your support.

[@krumw2]

Thanks!

[@anderspuck]

Thanks for your support.

[@louisriverin2295]

Always good to ear from you Anders 👍

[@knokgroda]

Thank you so much for this video. All the pieces were very informative

[@belledetector]

Excellent. Back in style and improved maps. Great analysis

[@Epaminondas371]

Thanks Anders. Excellent and measured analysis.

[@dichebach]

Really excellent analysis Commander Nielsen!

[@pinchofsalt8677]

You are both right. As a citizen of the balkans I can give some insight into the confused nature of policy. Unlike efficient govs like western ones, in this neck of the woods policy confusion is a feature not a bug. The reason for this is the constant back and forth between power groups the government has to appease. It's on display in the UK gov most recently. Notice the flip-flops happening and you can make a guess which group gains momentum in every given week.

[@londonspade5896]

@@ryanward10 Running out of people, energy, time? What crack are you on, Europe will be entirely independent of russian energy supply soon

[@londonspade5896]

@@ryanward10 That's just the cheap way to provide energy in the short term, eventually power will come from renewable sources and nuclear fission. Either way, there's no chance of running out of energy as you seem to want.

[@susanwestern6434]

@@ryanward10 The welfare states of Europe are running out of funds because of migrants from Africa, the Middle East and the Indian Sub-continent. Who drain resources,but do not contribute.

[@prettyokandy230]

@@susanwestern6434 no, not really...

[@MrSmokinDragon]

@@ryanward10 LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL - this is the armchair, arrogant, and naive analysis I have come to expect from KZbin comments. Was getting a bit worried, as most comments here were rather coherent and reasonably coherent. My "faith" has been restored...

[@ThaFunkster100]

Always love your videos and analysis. Thanks.

[@janethompson5153]

Really interesting 👌 Great reporting 🇬🇧

[@annflynn7209]

Thanks for giving me a new perspective on the frontline.

[@hansdidrikjacobsen4351]

Anders, your clear & casual art of presenting analysis of battlefield conditions makes current situations easier for me to understand. I highly value your work and thank you.

[@MeBallerman]

Han er pisseirriterende - han udtaler endda "Jens Stoltenberg" på engelsk. Han er spasser; ca 1/3 så snu, som han selv tror.

[@bunsdad4530]

This war is being fought for isreal. Isreal is in the midst of creating a multi tiered apartheid state while undertaking other genocides. They are in the process of stealing Syrian-Palestinian-Lebanese gas water mineral phosphate, land wheat oil and future pipelines. Isreal has worked with Saudi Arabia and the United States to take everything from Lebanon and Syria and get control of the eu energy market. In fact it was a Zionist billionaire and his tv network that created zelenskys persona. Isreal knows that if russia stabilizes the donbas and crimea they will have the steel gas oil warm water ports and industry to save the people of syria. At this point us special forces are keeping Syrians from their grain while they are es corting isis convoys of stolen oil to Iraq. This will end when russia comes to Syria in force. If course they huge gas and oil finds in Crimea donbas don’t help shape peace either.

[@bodieboyb]

Thanks for the update Anders!

[@tdb7992]

This conflict has probably become the most data rich conflict in history. Every little aspect is being documented by open-source nerds like myself, and then you have channels like this one, and Perun, Kings & Generals etc. who are able to provide high quality analysis within days and weeks. We are living in such interesting times.

[@louisquatorze9280]

Excellent, concise, informative.

[@martinknutsson8374]

The attack on civilian infrastructure with a military value is actually not a war crime.

[@th1ngo]

Excellent thoughtful, sober analysis.

[@green-user8348]

Anders, excellent review! Thank you.

[@MrJugsstein]

Thanks you for your time and analysis

[@stuartburton1167]

Clear and concise as usual. The only KZbin channel I trust.

[@mikl3359]

As always - insightful!

[@chcgo2undaground]

Excellent analysis, as always...

[@rikhughes6452]

Thank you

[@peterpayne2219]

Always love your videos. Greetings from rural Japan!

[@stormjensen1]

Tak for Update, Anders

[@janethompson5153]

Good balanced opinions 👌 👍 Glory, Victory, and Peace to Ukraine 🇬🇧

[@stormiewutzke4190]

I am glad that someone is talking about this.

[@Breyzipp]

Your videos are really good and informative, thanks!

[@NCOLON7545]

Great analysis!

[@trevorpsy]

There are several sites that provide excellent tactical news. I appreciate your channel for stepping back a couple paces and exploring strategic issues. Seems to me that Ukraine benefits from excellent strategical planning,, and Russia seems content to string tactical operations together, hoping that a strategy will somehow present itself.

[@roseblue3368]

Thats how putin operates, he is an oportunist

[@Thetarget1]

Can you recommend some good ones?

[@DreadX10]

@@Thetarget1 Suchomimus is a good one.

[@DreadX10]

Ukraine is planning and russia is hoping.... Indeed! The border skirmishes are just to keep the other side occupied (for both sides). The 'push' for Bakhmut is just that, unless it some-how is successful for russia and can then be used for PR.

[@xNOKxTURNALx]

@@Thetarget1 Perun

[@peterharma8937]

Thank you, Anders, very informative analysis 👍

[@Anolaana]

Wow, I got lucky to see this so fast!

[@flaviucalin]

Thanks.

[@seanbrown701]

The economy is the answer. Russia is spending more and earning less every day the war goes on. It is unable to replace equipment using Western parts. Increasing the economic pain will force Russia back to the Ukrainian national borders. The Ukrainians are dying to save the rest of Europe from having to spill blood. As an Australian, we will continue to support Ukraine till Ukraine decides when is enough.

[@frederickharris3148]

Still stand by this, or has reality set in?

[@williammcdonnell9299]

Excellent logic as usual Anders, keep up the good work !

[@premyslhruza]

On the air-defence of Russia, do somebody still remember Mathias Rust, landing his Cessna near the Red square, 1987? It was a series of mistakes, misunderstanding, not permitting something, giving up or just hoping somebody else in chain of command would take the responsibility...

[@gorillaguerillaDK]

Yup, it was such a great and impactful event. But it was a slow low flying plane, and no war going on - so one have to wonder if it's simply just because the Russians didn't believe Ukraine would be capable of hitting so deep into Russia - or if they hoped it would hit civilian targets, (like the Russians do), to give them an "excuse" to "declare war"...

[@Confucius_Says...]

Almost every Gen X'er remembers Matthias Rust, it cost a lot of people in the Soviet Air Defence Establishment their jobs...

[@normanboyes4983]

@@Confucius_Says... I wonder how many would lose their jobs if half a dozen F35s landed in Red Square.😉

[@koskok2965]

It's pretty amazing for anyone with zero knowledge on air defense systems, their operation and the engineering behind them. Kids in elementary school look pretty amazed when the soda and vinegar volcano goes splat.

[@peterrumspringa9757]

@@koskok2965 Are you saying that no air defence system is capable of discovering a plane flying hundreds of miles directly towards the "best protected area in the world"? I cannot believe that. No, I think it is the Russian defence that just suck. But after a while, they start believing their own propaganda. Maybe that is the main difference between democracies and dictatorships. Dictatorships can lie and are doing it constantly, telling everybody how great they are. Democracies have a constant fight between political factions, cannot lie and are constantly looking for flaws in what the other faction does. So in dictatorships nothing works nearly as good as people say, whereas in democracies, everything works better.

[@raneroth7981]

Excellent as usual

[@wespeakforthetrees]

Excellent analysis. Thanks

[@johanknickrehm455]

So good to heer you explain this war so clearly. Look forward for next update. Johan in Georgien.

[@TristouMTL]

Thank you for these updates. I appreciate the more general, strategic perspective of what's happening rather than just the daily movements of troops.

[@MrJdsenior]

If you want very general overviews from someone who knows a LOT more about the situation, as well, check out General Hodges channel: Review Democracy Initiative. They are less frequent, but when he makes predictions they are uncannily correct, and he is not usually wishy washy or vague about them, at all. They have been as specific as "ten days until Russia retreats from Kyiv", and he was the ONLY one I heard say that, and was right almost to the day, maybe one either way. That is one of several. He said the Russians were ABSOLUTELY going to lose the Kherson region west of the Dneiper when most were still pondering whether it was a possibility. He was the US General tasked with our relations to the European theater and had a lot to do with the US portion of the NATO training in fairly recent past years. I also expect he may still be doing some consultation, because even though he doesn't give sources, or very specific information, usually, he really gets the predictions and reasons for those predictions correct. He's also done some excellent interviews on the channel "Perun". I expect if anyone understands OPSEC, he does. He has made a prediction for the end of the war time frame that sounds nuts to me, but so did some of his other predictions, predictions like "Russia is running very low on present day tanks" and older tanks showing up in videos going to the front right after, and certain types of missiles being depleted with the corresponding reduction in the use of those missiles, etc., so I'm going with his over mine. Compared to him I know nothing, and neither does this guy. In fact I expect this guy gets a lot of his info from Hodges, because this dude has a pretty fair handle on most things.

[@thegrizzlyfamily1374]

This guys a real pro. I wish he would increase the cadence of videos!

[@similette]

still the best political and military analysis on youtube - danish dynamite

[@tiitsaul9036]

Thanks for the update

[@Coffee11111]

Perfect once more Anders 👍🇩🇰✌️🇺🇦

[@richardburgess8657]

Thank you, Anders. 😎

[@techeteri]

Thank you this intelligent big picture overview of the situation!

[@riccardocas1239]

as always another impressive video

[@motorosso3349]

You give such a clear-eyed view of the Ukraine War in your videos so thank you. I look forwards to your future assessments.

[@tippytoes2133]

Keep it up Anders! Love your channel.

[@jesperscheel-bech998]

Great video as always 👍

[@ClassicFormulaOne1]

Great views and analysis. I subscribed!

[@rogerwilco2]

I consider your nononsense evaluation of the events in Ukraine the most sincere and valuable I have found. Great work, thank you!

[@knutkonig4852]

Thank you again and again!

[@simongardiner949]

"A Spring offensive"? This is the time when the ground will become much more treacherous with the thaw!!!!

[@ronaldbell7429]

Another excellent discussion. These videos are gems.

[@roseblue3368]

I agree, he is the most insightful analist

[@alexstergaard3551]

Great insights as always Anders. I'm always looking forward to your next video.

[@hongnguyen2375]

Thank you for good explanation.

[@BM-jy6cb]

I look forward to these videos. It's such a refreshing change from the MSM's superficial and dumbed down coverage of this potentially world-changing conflict.

[@jessicaraquelmorenochu4168]

Thanks Anders. TTfN

[@texasjack]

I do enjoy your videos. You provide a more balanced view than some of the hard westerners (of which i am one), and so a more nuanced point of view is welcome. Thanks for your work.

[@shades2.183]

He is a realist

[@lisehgfeldt8234]

THANK YOU SO VERY MUCH for speaking clear about warcrimes! - and how this has to be managed in any peace negotiation.

[@afterthesmash]

At the negotiating table, if you have a choice between accounting for past crimes, and minimizing future crimes, which option do you choose?

[@skymaster4121]

@@afterthesmash both!

[@oliverfelix7373]

A very insightful analysis, as always. Thank you very much Anders.

[@aptroed]

The BEST!

[@kasperchristensen8416]

Great commentary as always, Anders. As for the Avril Haines report, I think you need to read between the lines.

[@jeffreyobrien8056]

Yes, perhaps some reverse psychology at play.

[@1339299]

9:10 Here you hit the nail on its head. Chpeau!

[@Extirpo]

In the current fog of (media) war this channel is about the best there is.

[@nzer57]

You don't get out much do you. 🙄🙄🙄

[@Extirpo]

@@nzer57 Well depends. Today is minus 11 and Christmas in the kitchen, so no. As for you I propose a long walk clearing your head of Putins lies.

[@59markr]

Brilliant analysis as always. 👍

[@markbeekhof9903]

Thank you very much for, again a very objective analyse of the war

[@levi_exiled8579]

You are the smartest guy I have seen on KZbin and you always hit the nail on the head. Perfect analytical videos.

[@antoninojohnscoppettuolo9057]

As for the long v short issue: Moscow is wanting to be seen (for domestic purposes) as continuing offensive operations, but the shortening the front line (a Russian choice) does allow for troop rotations, refitting and makes for higher troop density in defence (which, in intself, is deterrence against large-scale Ukrainian manoeuvres). I think long v short is pretty much settled.

[@MrJdsenior]

"A Russian choice". Really? More like a requirement if you don't want to mobilize 400k, rather than 300k next (current, actually) go round, for the even more massive losses they would be, and have taken otherwise. The Russians choice in Kherson was to leave or get obliterated, because as we've seen before, and in some cases not seen when they should, the Russians are LOATHE to have to 'choose' that option, and they has lost the ability to fight through INTELLIGENT use of Ukrainian weapons. Instead of bombing civilians and utilities infrastructure, the Ukrainians were ending the Russians capability to hold west of the Dnipro by denying them supply, or at least restricting the hell out of it, and destroying HUGE caches of ordnance the Russians had stored in the area, and large portions of their troops and weapons at the fronts. I've heard the Ukrainians many times say they are very thankful for three things, weapons and humanitarian donations, Russian corruption, and Russian stupidity.

[@Nathan666]

@@MrJdsenior You mean like Ukraine has called up 800k to 1.6Mil draftees (8 callups with 100-200k each)? The Kherson position wasn't tenable due to the limited access and constant hits on those access points. What are you referring to when you said, "not seen when they should"? Russia hasn't done anything to unduly put their soldiers at risk at any point in this conflict, so I would really like to know what you are referring to. Yes, the "intelligent use" where they kill 15k troops in 1wk in a failed Kherson offensive, and then another 10k in 1wk in Kharkiv fighting a retreating enemy that suffered almost no losses while it quickly gave up territory to a much larger force. I'm sorry, but when your enemy is telling you their primary goal is to destroy your military (demilitarize), the worst decision you can make is to launch a massive offensive where you let their artillery obliterate your forces in mass...and then do it AGAIN a few weeks later just for good measure.

[@Frederiknshansen]

You know nothing, bot.

[@jeffreybutschky5978]

Well done. Nice analysis.

[@user-gf7kc5fc5m]

Bottom line is that Putin/Russia lies,lies,lies. Leaves no room for any discussion.

[@TurboHappyCar]

Thank you for your insight! 👍

[@stanchern3796]

Unfortunately, not much of an insight on the current situation in Ukraine - Russia war. Thought I do understand, that many foreigners may be thankful even for such a short retrospective sight. As a Ukrainian, I may indicate that current situation in Bakhmut is horrible for Ukrainian army - hundreds die and get wounded each day. I strongly believe that defending Bakhmut will be incredibly difficult for our guys, and the city can even be given to the opponent in the end in order to cut losses. We lack personnel at the moment and losses are putting a tall on our army. Unfortunately, counteroffensive in Donetsk and Lugansk region is almost impossible at this point and a couple of months onwards.

[@PlanetFrosty]

Excellent points

[@phillipphil1615]

An off ramp for Russia is quite simple really, they should take the ramp that leads Russians out of all of Ukraine.

[@67wouter]

Russia does not need an offramp. There will be a military decision reached on the battlefields in Ukraine when Russia feels it is time to stop it will. Russia has learned that the West does not honour agreements, acts in bad faith and cannot be trusted (see interview Angela Merkel on Minsk Agreements). So there is no need for negotiations except at the end when the new Ukrainian government representatives can go to the appointed location with their offer of surrender. What NATO countries do not realise is that when leaders there talk about 'world opinion' they increasingly talk about a smaller and smaller number of NATO states and dependents. The actual and largest part of the world is more and more anti-NATO, anti-US and more open about it. UN assembly votes need to be viewed with great skepticism as there is a large amount of arm twisting that goes into the votes of most African and Latin American countries.

[@Confucius_Says...]

Or better yet, an off ramp straight to the bottom of the ocean, where they can join the Moskva...

[@67wouter]

@@Confucius_Says... @confucius excellent point, well thought out, you are a beacon of light and intelligence to come up with that brilliant piece of analysis and stunning riposte.

[@Confucius_Says...]

@@67wouter and you really should be paid more for posting well thought out essays in the comments section... But atleast I won't be " falling out of a window" if my bosses are displeased with me...

[@67wouter]

@@Confucius_Says... @confucius,I would love to get paid for responding. Sorry to pop your balloon but I am actually neutral in this conflict. I wish it never started and am still pissed off that Boris flew to Kiev to prolong the war in March / April when there was a dialogue between Kiev and Moscow about ending the conflict much along the lines of Minsk accords. Just very pissed off by tax payer funded disinformation campaigns against the citizens of NATO countries by NATO.

[@armandomercado2248]

Great update.

[@markanderson3870]

Fighting in winter will be harder for both sides, but a lot harder for Russia, and so the advantage goes even further in Ukraine's favour. So I doubt there will be a pause, more likely some important breakthroughs for Ukraine.

[@gabrieldunn7384]

Another good analysis.

[@richardowens9170]

Your comments about war crimes, and the need to weigh their punishment in the mix of negotiations, resonated with me. Let us hope our leaders can be persuaded to share your view. As always, I appreciate your insightful commentary and analysis.

[@attilamarics3374]

I dont know how Putin saying they target infrastructure become thr talking point that Russia admited war crimes. This guy is a moron and anyone that believes infrastructure and the power grid isnt military targets should actulaly read UN articles about this. So far every time Ukraine and the west said Russia commited a war crime, when the investigation started the west and Ukraine swept it under the rug and never talked about it again. Why? I know the answer.

[@deeglloyd]

Awesome Update!

[@77LCJ]

God video som altid Anders 👍

[@clarkeorchard2304]

Brilliant

[@CatalystD9]

💙💛💙💛💙🇺🇦🙏🇨🇦

[@claudemaggard7162]

I like your videos so much I watch them twice.

[@ehsnils]

In winter fighting it would come down to who has the best winter gear. With insufficient winter gear a lot of soldiers will get killed or injured by freezing. As I see it Bakhmut is something Russia want to take before the winter sets in to get a position where they can have a little better chance to shelter their troops during the winter. Also be aware that as soon as the ground is hard enough then the mobility will increase and roads will not be as important. It's only if there's a considerable amount of snow falling that the winter will be able to pause the war. Also from my perspective Troitske is a key position since there's a railroad there that basically supports most of the Russian-held areas in Ukraine. So taking the narrow part down to Melitopol and destroying the railroad through Troitske will be a combined effort that will disrupt a lot for Russia. The bridge to Crimea is also still a target. It might be very hard to take out that at the same time as the two other objectives, but if done it would be a hard blow for Russia.

[@westoftherockies]

the russian are in deep shit, they do not have the proper equipment, the ukrainians do, also the russians supply logistics are really bad, they are going to lose a lot of soldiers this winter, it might do in their army all together, they lost almost every troop that started with the beginning of the war, front line is mostly untrained conscripts who are deserting, surrendering, leaving tons of equipment etc, their army is going to suffer the worst defeat in their history.

[@timothywright2953]

I think Bakhmut offensive is designed attritional loses on the Ukrainians whilst allowing the Russians gain tactical experience .As the Russians erode the Ukrainian defences on the high ground the will forced to choose between withdrawal or counter attacking . With mobilisation and the shortening of the front also Russian will have for the first time since invasion significant reserves formations to open a new offensive ,

[@stephenrowley4171]

@@timothywright2953 the high land Bakhmut is outside the city and deeper into Ukraine lands. Russia take the city bakhmut its still going to have take that high land.

[@trevorroberts9584]

Indeed, if Russia takes Bakhmut their positions will be dominated by the high ground to the west. Ukraine has a lot of artillery in them there hills. So Russia is fighting, and losing men and equipment, to take a position that is on lower ground dominated by high ground and is of dubious advantage to them. Thre is an argument that Russia is fighting hard to get itself into a fire trap.

[@ehsnils]

@@trevorroberts9584 or since it's winter - waterbombing to make ice lollipops of them?

[@hielkovisser4753]

Great Video Anders.

[@stuartgraca]

From what I see I think you are right about both sides waiting now for continues freezing temperatures, it will be necessary to guarantee free movement of vehicles once an offensive is started. I imagine the next problem will be how robust the ground troops are and how cold it gets, I am not sure if the military vehicles are better equipped than standard vehicles using diesel ? The January start will also allow time for some of the newer equipment to enter Ukraine. From the Russian side I have the impression they put 150,000 new troops into Ukraine and have continued to have the same in reserve, so there might be a point when they decide to rotate some of the troops now to be fresh for any further attacks ?

[@nattygsbord]

The men in the rear are the logistics tail of the army that are fighting in the frontline. And I don't think that men driving supply trucks and lacking combat experience are that good to use in the frontline. So I guess that they will not rotate much

[@edwardboland879]

Love the content anders

[@antoninojohnscoppettuolo9057]

It is a tribute to your character that you should pause with indignation on the issue of war crimes. I am frankly astounded at the number of analysts who discuss - even at great length - the "military benefits" of the mass bombing of Ukraine's civilian infrastructure. It is a war crime, plain and simple.

[@nvelsen1975]

I doubt such people are analists at all. There has never in modern history been a case where bombing civilian targets has had a beneficial outcome. The last times it did was during the age of pike&shot where bombarding a city with cannons sometimes made the population rise up and demand a conditional surrender (which typically involved the city not wanting to be looted).

[@antoninojohnscoppettuolo9057]

@@nvelsen1975 Make no mistake, it may not sap Ukraine's willingness to fight, but In a resource-constrained and aid-dependent economy like Ukraine's these campaigns are bound to impact the military also. I do think, however, that to discuss Moscow's civilian attacks on their military merits (which many do) would be a bit like discussing the merits of a chemical weapons strike on a packed football stadium. Moscow has been so adept at focusing our attention on its fairy-cuckoo-land nuclear threats that in looking at anything short of nuclear, such as the siege of Mariupol (a city which has been effectively "Hiroshimised"), we often fail to pause and reflect on Russia's unconventional (criminal) conduct of this war by conventional means.