How Much You'll Lose Opening Topps DYNASTY-100 Box Rip Test

Topps Dynasty is one of the most expensive and exciting Topps releases every year. The msrp on this product is $899 dollars. Aftermarket pricing gets all the way up to $1,500. Nothing is better than the sleek design, oversized game worn patches, and TRUE rookie RPAs.
In this video I will go over how much money you'll lose on average opening Topps Dynasty. I watched 100 boxes opened and tracked all of the card values so that you would know if this product is worth your money. Below is the Google Doc link to check my comps and work!
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/...

[@dwiii1635]

"Is Topps ripping you off..." Yes, yes they are. Video over, lol.

[@howardsun]

Not when you rip open a Victor Wembanyama RPA

[@spitzer1113]

@@howardsun but the majority are not getting anything remotely close to that. And it is sad that the most valuable card in a baseball release is a basketball player.

[@johnbritt5448]

No shit huh

[@PHXsportsfan]

Panini is the biggest ripoff. Their designs are trash too.

[@walkertwo]

"Is Topps ripping you off..." - yes, almost always. You will lose value on 95%+ of the boxes you open. "Only" losing HUNDREDS of dollars in value PER BOX is not something that should be ok.

[@TheGrimRipper]

A lot of Hall of Famers are signing way too much and their values are dropping like crazy. Makes me worried about buying autos of current players because they are going to be signing for Topps for years after their career is over.

[@scottiebcards2354]

I agree!. This is why I generally stick to rookie autos only. There are just too many out there for most players. Thanks for watching!

[@eviltwinstephen8367]

Well said, most don’t realize that once an athlete retires they spend the next 40-50 years signing their name for money. If people knew how many Mickey Mantle autographed items are actually out in the market the values would plummet. He spent 27 years autographing things for everyone that came in contact with him.

[@TheGrimRipper]

@@eviltwinstephen8367 Totally agree and just think if Mantle would have been signing that much for Topps at the start of his career like these guys are.

[@forgerelli1]

I can confirm this.

[@joedill4311]

Agreed. Time to buy players that have passed. As grisly as it sounds. For now, it's a 90% hold on modern VET hof'ers. The only players going up are those that are too old/dead to sign. Unfortunately......R.I.P. old timers.

[@786_sh3ll]

there is zero reason to open dynasty now just buy singles you want, you can easily get 2-3 great cards for box price, at retail price the 76th percentile for breakeven isn't too bad though I guess weighing risk and reward

[@tedjerdee1028]

To me, high end hobby boxes are a waste of time. People only look at the ceiling instead of the floor. $1k on flagship hobby boxes has a way higher floor than the $85 you get out of the $1k hobby box. The chances you double your money on a $120 hobby box is significantly higher than doing that on a $1k hobby box. Just today, a 2023 Mike Trout /10 dynasty patch auto sold for $590. A base Allen and Ginter Trout auto sold yesterday for $192. I'll let you decide what the better value is.

[@chasejackson7248]

Getting that auto out of alan and ginter is still hard to do, I bought a case of 2023 alan and ginter and the autos weren't great outside of a Charlie sheen auto I got.

[@tedjerdee1028]

@@chasejackson7248 o for sure hard to pull but for the price of a dynasty box, you could buy most of a case of Allen and Ginter. The total floor value IMO would be greater than $85 which is what the floor of dynasty is. I’m not trying to hate on dynasty but I’d rather buy singles of dynasty and rip flagship wax (not Allen and Ginter).

[@Rip-A-Dee-Doo-Dah]

Love the analysis and explanation. Thanks for the video!

[@tho464]

It’s gonna be too bad if the card market collapses like back in the junk wax era. Some people have their entire net worth in cards and if the doo-doo hits the fan no one will let you buy some food with a patch auto card.

[@joestanton4035]

Your content is fantastic! Thanks Scottie!

[@matthewcook2097]

thx for the hard work scottie!

[@user-zd7ps7do8k]

I love this data. Another extremely insightful video.

[@timhackman9488]

Thanks Scottie B for another breakdown man. I wouldn’t be able to afford this product anyways but it’s always good to know what product is worth it or had the most value. The bigger the buck sometimes the lesser the bang

[@vendora1]

most of the time

[@markhoshii7438]

Its a breakers market for boxes and cases. It is so easy for them to make money if they can get the product. Plus the more big cards they pull, the more customers then get.

[@adameschete9165]

Easy solution. Dont buy into breaks🤷🏻‍♂️

[@spitzer1113]

@@adameschete9165 unfortunately there are so many degenerates out there that continue to support the breakers

[@bradleylimin9694]

Fantastic content

[@IamThePro78]

Any video about topps series 2 rookies coming up?

[@ChristopherSmithNYC]

Doing the lords work here. Good looking out.

[@rockiesinoctober]

I love these videos.

[@erichjenson7278]

Thanks for the video. The worst auto I received before I stopped opening product was an auto card of a random baseball scout. On the back it said something like he scouted Verlander or something.

[@trueteller424]

😂

[@snerdterguson]

I got an auto/relic of Bernie the Brewer, Milwaukee's mascot. But it was out of a single 99 cent pack of Opening Day, so I considered it a win.

[@Philly_Joe]

Appreciate your hard work getting this data together. I like Topps Inception better. Please note - 30% value overall is probably a good number to use for all Topps products. Thanks again.

[@mygodmanm3008]

Inception is probably the worst as far as what u get for the money... that and tier one are terrible for this

[@Philly_Joe]

@@mygodmanm3008 Inception has awesome patches and on card auto's - again, in whole probably about 30% value....everyone has what they like at a price point they can tolerate.😁

[@tonyhill1141]

I collected every card from 2014 to 2020. I sold the whole collection in 2021 for six figures (I had every rookie including Ohtani and Soto and Judge). I doubt I would see anything near that today.

[@jessicalightner7947]

T pott have you do this?

[@user-dv6dg5gu6d]

Top tier analysis from Scottie as usual. But by now people...we need to learn and exercise discipline by buying singles

[@snerdterguson]

People are crazy. You could buy the complete 86 Fleet Basketball set in PSA 8 and have a couple grand left over for the price that Wemby got.

[@rsmath1]

it'd be interesting to see the ROI on a few boxes that were not opened by breakers. I bet average ROI is less than the two breakers you analyzed.

[@rickyboyd5315]

Do you know how many boxes were actually sold to the public? I know it sold out within 30 seconds of dropping so I'm assuming most of it was allocated to blez and Fanatics live. Hate they put Wemby in there and Michael Harris only had 1 set.

[@jaytay1995]

I suspect same analysis would be found with Topps Luminaries as well

[@briguy8957]

Bill Buckner was my first favorite player. He was good for the Cubs at an age of impression for me. That would be a great PC hit. What uniform was it in?

[@scottiebcards2354]

Hey! It wasn't in a uniform. It was a cut of something a photo I believe. It was not too impressive looking of a card, honestly. If you would like to see it be pulled I included the link to the video where it was hit in the Google doc link that I have in the description of this video. Thanks for watching!

[@briguy8957]

That was a pretty lame card.

[@dripsystem5785]

What you also need to take into consideration is that ebay is going to take 15% + percentage of whatever you sell the card for. Plus shipping and insurance which you probably want for an expensive card. So you need to do significantly better than the money you paid. just to break even

[@twisterduck1944]

I think it just proves that high-end sets aren’t worth it at their pricing especially for just a box. Can buy 2-4 cards with the price of 1 box. Obviously the ceiling of the high-end stuff is crazy but when the floor is super low it isn’t worth it. Probably better spending 1k towards a case of another product then for 1 Dynasty box. You have a lot higher chance of getting your value back if not more. I know this would be hard but it would be interesting to see this break down of a cheaper product like Heritage or A&G

[@chrisscott3030]

I was hoping for a Will Grier or Desmond Ridder auto.

[@TheCardHunter]

I think you should change the approach. Do you lose money when you only buy the key teams in 100 boxes? IMO lots of people buy breaks for this specific reason. I don't want 100 boxes of junk. I only want the best cards in the 100 boxes and if I use a check list and Pick the Teams at a fair price, can't I change the narrative?

[@garygordon3075]

Not sure the approach needs to change to tell a person that if they buy a box they won't get close to their money back

[@Blabbin_Bout_Slabbin]

Bill Buckner cut auto!?!?

[@joes7972]

What sucks about this products return on investment too is that that cards value likely isn’t going up. Meanwhile ya open a bowman hobby, yea ya might get $50 worth, but it’s safe bet atleast one prospect in that box will pan out to some extent.

[@BCNeil]

Yes the numbers he did today, don't count that these cards will drop in price year after year going forward. Other than a handful of card in the set. 95% of cards in this set will be worth less in 5 years.

[@BoxChildFilms]

im going straight to blez rn

[@AshMorton]

So, the usual play of buying the singles you want, is the way to go

[@scottiebcards2354]

Definitely! You can get some amazing cards for far less than the current price of the boxes online.

[@chasejackson7248]

Buying boxes like this is only good for a chance of cards you probably won't buy as a single.

[@rwthomas111]

What was the average? Percentiles are nice to know the distribution of the data but the EV of this gamble is going to be the average value per card.

[@scottiebcards2354]

Hi, I included a link to my document with all data if you would like to see the average. I chose the median since the Webanyama sale was a drastic outlier that skewed the data.

[@rwthomas111]

@@scottiebcards2354 amazing. Thank you!

[@eviltwinstephen8367]

I honestly can’t believe people are paying $900 for this. I remember watching a guy on YT break multiple cases before the pandemic at $300/card or so and thinking even that was crazy. People are literally throwing away money.

[@GlassGuy1]

Just like everything else in this world, the money is made by the big guys. Only buy what you like, don't buy thinking you're going to make money.

[@Franciscohernandez310]

I want to get into modern cards but I don’t see the long term value.

[@MGAF688]

Just buy what you enjoy and don't worry about long term value. If Teoscar Hernandez is your favorite player, then collect him. If the A's are your team, then focus on them.

[@chrisscott3030]

​@@MGAF688what if you like Will Grier?

[@timmccray7507]

I was hoping for a Billy Butler cut auto

[@LambeauLeeeper]

Or Mookie 😂😂😂

[@scottiebcards2354]

See, now that is a $1,000 per box auto I could chase!

[@floridacardguy]

How many people are opening Dynasty to try to make their money back? I'd argue that it's a small %. I think the majority of breakers are doing it just to have a really fun high end gamble, and probably have a lot of extra, disposable income. I don't think we look at the ROI or assumed value appetite through the right prizm at times.

[@tony62]

Why do people have an expectation of making money immediately? You could've said the same thing about 2018 Topps Chrome. Now, look. Sometimes, it takes time to make money.

[@calebbaker8353]

The price of boxes is far out pacing the price of singles, if people would stop overpaying for product and stop supporting breakers, the box prices could level out.

[@tubenachos]

Post-retirement cards and pack-pulled autographs have no meaning to me. Not even the all-time greats.

[@scottiebcards2354]

Right? It is crazy how numb we have all become to crazy cards. When I was a kid in the early 2000s any patch was awesome to me, but now there are so many produced.

[@mam362]

No degree of financial loss, IMO, is good

[@dramatyst5661]

20 years and im just done with the hobby . Back to building Hondas and collecting new era fitted hats more $$ in those

[@calebbaker8353]

So a common sense price of this would be $500

[@geodio]

It does play out pretty poorly. But as I was watching, I couldn't help but think it's not much worse than most hobby boxes. I 100% have purchased a hobby jumbo for $180-$200 and didn't get $18-$20 in total value. And even if I did, the time spent nickle and dime selling them would make it more at a loss. This doesn't make this "okay", but the whole scheme is terrible. Pick and choose what you buy wisely, or swim is disposable income and have fun.

[@mackeymintle66]

Is topps ripping is off. Yes. End video before it starts

[@JTyler-je3fb]

It's the newage junk parallel and auto era. These manufacturers do not care about the hobby and collectors they cater to the breakers but, most importantly, their bottom line. It's apparent when key players have over 3k rookie cards. Period

[@Joe-cf3vo]

Dynasty is like playing a slot machine. You get fake wins which are net losses. Let the breakers waste their money and flood the market. Be patient and wait a few months. low ball an offer. 95% of the cards will drop in value over time. The longer you wait the more they drop. That’s my strategy.

[@dustinandrews7409]

This is why you don't buy boxes of cards to make money.

[@agentsmith6763]

Opening any box is ludicrous these days

[@SmackyThaFrog24]

Show me one topps product that you DON'T loae money on, I'll wait...

[@johnbritt5448]

Card market is strong right now. But wait, just wait and see. All good things must end. And it will too. You think you know the future. LOL.. it ain’t gonna be good. R.I.P. offs everywhere

[@killianweir6058]

If it's topps it's bunk

[@mingus0706]

card collecting is a losing effort. it's super fun but far too expensive for the return, which is never guaranteed.

[@JohnMiller-jj9kx]

Wow, what a bust!

[@jamiepike6909]

Anyone breaking,isn’t investing.

[@shauntampa]

Only ripping you off if you buy the product.

[@smitjimmers144]

Breakers are the worst thing that’s ever happened to what used to be an affordable hobby

[@adameschete9165]

Keep the wembys out of the baseball products. I buy baseball cards for baseball players. I couldn’t care less about basketball. I don’t even want it as a “hit”. I would prefer a base card of any player in the SPORT i was purchasing cards for.

[@simondaughtry4619]

I wouldn't touch MLB dynasty .... its a meaningless product to me...but I can say that for a great deal of issues being offered in the current money grab. There's a whole lotta crap being spewed. I respect those who enjoy it... its not for me however.

[@popsmoke99]

well stated indeed.

[@scottiebcards2354]

I have come around to really really like Dynasty. It is the only high end product that Topps makes that I think is worthwhile, but opening Dynasty is a different story 😂. Thanks for watching Simon!

[@simondaughtry4619]

@@scottiebcards2354 I hope everything you touch turns to gold my friend....

[@JeffStevens-mw1pb]

Dicks Sporting Goods jerseys. All of them.

[@dsphillips16]

Random comment bla bla bla I hate my job

[@swizzle1199]

Junk junk junk. Stick to singles folks.

[@psb5221976]

design is lame, looks like a paninini product.

[@johnbritt5448]

The hobby is dying. Thank the companies for being so fricken greedy too.